Regional Foresight Research Articles

Place-leadership and power in the futures domain: the case of Euskadi 2040

ABSTRACT In an era when uncertainty and complexity are more tangible than ever, decision-makers are under pressure to turn from short-term politics and departmentalization to safeguard not only current wellbeing but also the wellbeing of future generations via longer term planning and visioning. In regions, as multilevel governance systems, no actor has the power to determine the decisions of others. Place leadership demands the mobilization of different actors to define an effective strategy for future development, by combining institutional, interpretive and network power in a dynamic manner. This paper reflects on how leadership and power shape shared vision in regional foresight processes, and the role of academic knowledge. We conduct an in-depth single case study analysis of ‘Euskadi 2040’, the visioning initiative launched by the Basque regional government in collaboration with the research institute Orkestra. We articulate five main contributions of research institutes: facilitating the systemic character of the vision; incorporating academic action-oriented knowledge; supporting the divergence from traditional linear planning paradigms towards flexible learning-centred approaches to policy; promoting an interinstitutional and multi-agent shared discourse; and lastly, leveraging knowledge transfer within international networks.

Prospectiva territorial y la agenda 2030: Una fusión virtuosa para construir futuros

This work of reflection around the articulation of regional foresight studies and the 2030 Agenda, promoted by the United Nations Organization, through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). It is based on a foresight experience developed in the Department of Guaymallén, Province of Mendoza, Argentina, proposed as a base study for the design of the municipal land use plan provided for in Law 8.051/2009. The article shows the general context for the design of planning instruments at the local level. Next, it presents the territorial dynamics considered most critical for the future to subsequently compare the desired scenario with the 17 SDGs. The research work included a bibliographic review of the main articulation proposals between regional foresight and the 2030 Agenda. Among the findings, the need to deepen the territorialization of the 2030 Agenda at the local government level stands out, and to anchor the planning processes for development, with a foresight vision of each SDG. Working on these concerns will allow the robustness of the foresight and its appropriation by the social actors of the territory.

The role and significance of foresight in the strategic management of regional development in the era of globalization and digital transformation of the economy

The article defines the role and significance of the foresight in the strategic management of regional development in the conditions of globalization and digital transformation of the economy, discloses ways of promoting the regional foresight in the development of regions, presents the characteristics of the directions of regional foresight assistance in solving global problems, substantiates the potential directions of the regional foresight. Foresight is a systematic approach to identifying and analyzing future trends and challenges, as well as developing strategies to address them. Foresight technologies, which involve systematic and structured research into possible futures, have the potential to provide valuable information for strategic decision-making. Ways in which regional foresight can contribute to regional development include anticipating and responding to change; promoting innovation and competitiveness; increasing stability; strengthening cooperation and partnership. Climate change, technological and demographic changes, globalization, political instability, resource management, infrastructure development, social and cultural diversity, management and policy development are among the directions of regional foresight's contribution to solving global problems. The most relevant areas of development of the regional foresight are such as increasing the use of data and analytics, expanding cooperation and involvement of interested parties, integration with other policy areas, emphasis on stability and sustainability. Regional foresight can contribute to global challenges by helping regions anticipate and adapt to change, fostering innovation and cooperation, building resilience and sustainability, and contributing to a more peaceful and prosperous world. In light of these global challenges, foresight can help regions develop strategies that are better suited to a complex and rapidly changing global environment. By engaging in foresight, regions can anticipate and adapt to change, foster innovation and collaboration, and build sustainable, resilient communities.

Beyond the COVID-19 crisis: A research note on post-pandemic scenarios for South Tyrol 2030+

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit societies all around the globe, with tremendous consequences. Beyond its impact on individual and public health, the ensuing crisis has also accentuated existing social and economic problems and, in many cases, exacerbated them. In this context, a central question arises: How can societies be better prepared for the future? This research note presents an example of strategic foresight as an instrument for better understanding systemic challenges, anticipating the emergent risks and opportunities and informing future-proof decision-making. More specifically, it reflects central insights of a regional foresight project that aimed at exploring development pathways of the Italian province South Tyrol for the next 10 years and beyond (2030+). Delineating four plausible, equivalent and consistent scenarios and their entailed challenges, risks and opportunities for South Tyrol, the project offers a future-oriented policy instrument for political, economic and civil actors and key stakeholders. Instead of a classic empirical outlet, the article is prepared as a research note that, beyond sketching the scenarios, shares the project experiences, lessons learned, challenges and success factors for other future regional foresight endeavors.

Influential Article Review - Across Regional Innovation Systems and Commercial Communities, The Benefits of Variation Are Numerous

This paper examines innovation systems. We present insights from a highly influential paper. Here are the highlights from this paper: Today, interesting and important interconnections have been made that promise great leaps forward for innovation systems and entrepreneurial ecosystems - especially operating at the regional or sub-national level of the space economy. Of course, there are politics in such relationships. Most notable are those that are critical of anything that “interferes” with market hegemony (neoliberal bias) which has weakened commitments such as those pioneered in South Korea in the early years of the twenty-first century, later to be followed by numerous Scandinavian policy experiments (Denmark, Norway and Sweden) as well as austerity policy to enlarge regional governance spaces, as in Germany and France (not to mention the dismantling in 2010 of Anglo-regional governance in the UK). Meanwhile, however, it can be seen that good progress in regional innovation policy and entrepreneurial accomplishment at regional level proceeds apace. This is known as the “co-operative bias” in contemporary political economy. Entrepreneurial ecosystems and regional innovation systems are excellent examples of “generative growth” mechanisms (floated in Cooke, P, Generative Growth, Knowledge Economies and Sustainable Development: implications for Regional Foresight Policy, 2002) as a counter to Romer-style individualistic endogenous growth theory. The paper explores the virtues of variety against those of linearity in innovation and entrepreneurial ecosystems in exemplary empirical instances. For our overseas readers, we then present the insights from this paper in Spanish, French, Portuguese, and German.

Development of regional foresight studies between 2000 and 2019: an overview and co-citation analysis

Regional foresight is one of the regional planning approaches that increase the ability to deal with uncertainty and changes. This study aims to provide an overview of regional foresight studies and domain map to evaluate their merits and defects and direct future studies in this field. For this purpose, 111 papers related to regional foresight were identified at the “Web of Science” in the period 2000 to 2019 and used as the basis for further analysis. These papers have been reviewed in various aspects. In addition, the domain map of regional foresight and its intellectual bases was drawn based on co-citation analysis of these papers and their 4194 references. The domain map includes five main clusters of research areas or intellectual bases for regional foresight: normative forecasting, participation, foresight in policy and strategy, innovation systems, and multi-level governance. Finally, the merits and defects of regional foresight studies are evaluated based on research results and some suggestions are provided for future studies.

Legume production and use in feed: Analysis of levers to improve protein self-sufficiency from foresight scenarios

The European Union relies on imports to meet the protein requirements of its livestock. Regions specialized in livestock production suffer even more from a deficit in protein self-sufficiency. Legumes represent an interesting source of plant protein. However, despite public policies promoting legume production, their use in animal feed remains limited. The aim of this study was to define levers to increase protein self-sufficiency in western France with a view to reducing negative environmental impacts of agricultural production. A regional foresight was performed to define innovative levers for legume production, which could improve protein self-sufficiency. Then, a modeling framework was developed to assess economic and environmental impacts of different levers. It combines a Computable Generable Equilibrium model and the regional model SYNERGY, which simulates local exchanges of crops between farms. Results showed that an increase in coupled support for legumes leads to an increase in legume production but has no influence on protein self-sufficiency or other indicators, since legumes are not used in greater amounts in feed. When the demand for GMO-free animal products increases, the production of legumes, including multispecies grassland, increases substantially, and most livestock are fed legumes. However, on pig farms, protein self-sufficiency decreases because legume production does not meet the quantity needed by pig rations. Local exchange of crops between farms was limited. Regional profit increases, but environmental indicators do not improve, in part due to the increase in legume imports from outside western France. In such a highly specialized region, improvement in protein self-sufficiency seems relatively limited, and a decrease in livestock production should be considered to meet this objective and improve environmental results.

Foresight technology using in the strategic forecasting of human potential development of the region

The article considers the relevance and possibilities of foresight technology using for long-term forecasting at the regional level, taking into account the influence of socio-economic factors on the formation and development of the human potential of the region. It is determined that the creation of appropriate socio-economic conditions for human potential formation is a major prerequisite for regional development. It is necessary to use foresight technology, which is interpreted as the technology of the unity of foresight, strategic management and political decisions, for forecasting the strategic directions of socio-economic policy for the human potential development of the region. The main methodological peculiarities of foresight due to its openness, active participation of all stakeholders and conducting foresight sessions, are investigated. The features of the regional foresight have been determined, which show that, if it is carried out correctly, it is possible to create and provide a system of strategic management of the region by identifying innovation zones or growth poles for each individual business unit. The ways of development and using of foresight in Ukraine are analyzed. The modern approaches to the development of regional foresight are generalized. The analysis of the possibilities of regional foresight using with a SWOT-analysis method, which is one of the most used both in foreign and domestic foresight studies. The scheme of conducting the foresight at the regional level has been developed. The purpose and objectives of the foresight at the regional level in the Odessa region are formulated. Priority directions of human potential management were determined for conducting the SWOT-analysis of the possibilities of human potential formation in the Odessa region. The SWOT-analysis of the possibilities for human potential formation and development of Odessa region is proposed and carried out.

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT: NEW THEORIES

The increasing importance of the Russian regions in increasing the efficiency of socio-economic development of the country actualizes scientific research on the balanced development of the regional economy and spatial coherence of economic processes. Within the framework of regional studies, both traditional and classical theories and new theoretical approaches to the problems of regional development are systematized and typologized. The article presents a fragmentary review of new theories and concepts of regional growth, including: the concept of sustainable development, cluster concept, the concept of "smart specialization", regional foresight, paradigms of studying the region as a quasi-state, quasi-Corporation, market area and region-society. The attention is focused on the theories of regional development cyclicity and studies related to the analysis of economic dynamics. The conclusion is made about the need for further research on the problems of interregional cooperation and the formation of regions as subjects of the common economic space.

Regional foresight and dynamics of smart specialization: A typology of regional diversification patterns

The concept of smart specialization has attracted great interest and has been adopted widely in European regional and innovation policy. Foresight is an important part of creating smart specialization strategies. However, both the smart specialization concept and foresight have been criticized for lacking an empirical and theoretical foundation that can help guide their application in practice. This paper contributes to the theoretical foundation of smart specialization and regional foresight by drawing on the field of economic geography and elaborating a typology for patterns of smart specialization. We highlight that there are different paths to reaching smart specialization within the same industrial domain. The empirical research focuses on the offshore wind service sector in four regions around the North Sea. The findings corroborate a typology that offers four distinct patterns—diversification, transition, radical foundation, and modernization—all of which can enable the creation of new industrial activities where regions enter an emerging industry based on fundamentally different starting points.

The virtues of variety in regional innovation systems and entrepreneurial ecosystems

Today, interesting and important interconnections have been made that promise great leaps forward for innovation systems and entrepreneurial ecosystems - especially operating at the regional or sub-national level of the space economy. Of course, there are politics in such relationships. Most notable are those that are critical of anything that “interferes” with market hegemony (neoliberal bias) which has weakened commitments such as those pioneered in South Korea in the early years of the twenty-first century, later to be followed by numerous Scandinavian policy experiments (Denmark, Norway and Sweden) as well as austerity policy to enlarge regional governance spaces, as in Germany and France (not to mention the dismantling in 2010 of Anglo-regional governance in the UK). Meanwhile, however, it can be seen that good progress in regional innovation policy and entrepreneurial accomplishment at regional level proceeds apace. This is known as the “co-operative bias” in contemporary political economy. Entrepreneurial ecosystems and regional innovation systems are excellent examples of “generative growth” mechanisms (floated in Cooke, P, Generative Growth, Knowledge Economies and Sustainable Development: implications for Regional Foresight Policy, 2002) as a counter to Romer-style individualistic endogenous growth theory. The paper explores the virtues of variety against those of linearity in innovation and entrepreneurial ecosystems in exemplary empirical instances.

„Fuck the context!”. Krytyczny dyskurs regionalny w kontekście badań foresight

This article is an attempt at a critical and interdisciplinary analysis of the idea of the region. The author reviews and summarizes critical views of the idea in the discourses of architecture (Frampton, Koolhaas, Ibelings), art history (DaCosta, Kauffman, Piotrowski), and social anthropology (Gupta, Ferguson, Malkki, Bhabha). He then focuses on the example of the contemporary discourse on power, in which the concept of ‘region’ still functions in the form of implicit premises about the naturalness of differences and territorial and cultural divisions. The example is analyzed through the findings of the research project ‘Regional Foresight for Wielkopolska’ (2009–2011). The author’s conclusion points to the great dissonance between the discourse of modern humanities and the applied discourse of contemporary policy (including regional policy).

Foresight for regional policy: technological and regional fit

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose and discuss a new regional foresight methodology. Design/methodology/approach The first part describes the methodology and the organizational process adopted for implementing foresight at the regional level and highlights the criticalities. The research methodology is based on a case study. The case is the analysis of the industrial and regional sectors and the technological families in the Lombardy region. Findings This methodology analyses trends, technologies and industries, returning a set of qualitative and quantitative indicators. Then, it aggregates them, building two matrixes (trends/technologies and technologies/industries). Finally, it evaluates the future importance of a technology (the attractiveness of a technology for the long-term competitiveness of the regional main industrial sectors) and the capabilities of the regional industrial, technical and scientific system to develop specific technologies (feasibility for the regional system to develop the chosen technology). Originality/value The originality lies in an integrated analysis of the possible futures and their relation with the industrial world. Its value is as a tool to suggest policies and R&D investments. It is possible to provide a sound basis for science and technology policymaking.

Perspectives of regional foresight implementation in the system of public administration of Ukraine

Creation of new institutions, organizational structures and instruments of governance is one of the administrative reform directions in Ukraine. Recently, when addressing this issue, Ukrainian experts have more and more frequently mentioned the term of «Foresight». The notion entered the Ukrainian scientific community (including public administration field) not long time ago. So, in order to assess the real situation and determine the prospects of regional Foresight in the system of public administration the author conducted a survey involving local government experts. Its purpose was to draw attention of the experts working in local government bodies to Foresight technology, as well as to provide state assessment, conceptualization of regional Foresight directions (vectors, focus, principles) and consider the possibilities of its implementation (problems, initiators, sources of funding, possible threats) in Ukraine. Applying some elements of Foresight technology, we tried to define some future prospects of regional Foresight in Ukraine and tried to form two roadmaps on this basis. The analysis of domestic and foreign scientific background revealed some results highlighted in a number of proposals and recommendations on Foresight researches in general. In addition, on the basis of the obtained material and using a dual choice approach, the author developed some scientific and practical recommendations. We also proposed a selection of promising regional Foresight foci, and made certain cautions about the terms of its inefficient use.

Programy foresightu regionalnego w zarządzaniu strategicznym regionami

Paradygmat sieciowy wspomaga wyjaśnianie znaczenia partycypacji w zarządzaniu strategicznym regionami i jej wpływu na poziom konkurencyjności regionu, kształtowaniewizji przyszłości regionu czy zaspokajanie potrzeb publicznych. Ważnym, choć niedocenianym instrumentem wspomagającym zarządzanie partycypacyjne na poziomie regionu jest foresight regionalny. Celem artykułu jest prezentacja potencjału programu foresightu regionalnego w zwiększaniu partycypacji w strategicznym zarządzaniu regionem.

Regional Foresight for Bridging National Science, Technology, and Innovation with Company Innovation: Experiences from Russia

Whereas national and corporate foresight are established instruments for anticipatory Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) policy and innovation strategy respectively, regional foresight is a rather new phenomenon in this arena. Placed in between national and corporate foresight, regional foresight can be considered to fulfill a bridging role by taking advantage of the corporate foresight done at corporations which is based in the regions and by focusing on the broader national foresight and the related challenges covered by these studies. In addition, regional foresight also involves stakeholders who might be engaged in national as well as corporate foresight, but presumably these stakeholders play a more important and prominent role in the regional foresight. Also, it is understood that regional networks are important for the successful implementation of the results. Also, at the regional dimension, it shows that stronger personal linkages exist than in national or corporate foresight. The article introduces and discusses two regional foresight case studies in Russian regions, namely, Bashkortostan and Samara. Regional foresight in both case studies was designed to mirror the quadruple helix instead of focusing on the triple helix only as it is done in many other regional foresight cases; e.g., the focus was extended beyond the science, government, and industry stakeholders by including civil society as well. However, the limitation of the case studies is the modest participation and representation of the innovative industry sectors which is also due to the general weakness of Russian industry overall. Still it is found that both cases not only created reasonable momentum for developing the regions in the STI dimension but also even broader economic and social welfare dimension.

Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile

The design, management and evaluation of foresight is challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness in the context of other policy processes. To help overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge, relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape, system, organisation and individual. We construct these layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from considering multiple levels and respective different emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge while on the organisational layer it is more on capabilities. The layers help position the foresight exercise and its effects in relation to the broader context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered foresight to support the design, management and evaluation of foresight.

Regional Foresight for Bridging National Science, Technology and Innovation with Company Innovation: Experiences from Russia

Whereas national and corporate Foresight are established instruments for anticipatory STI policy and innovation strategy respectively, regional Foresight is a rather new phenomena in this arena. Placed in between national and corporate Foresight regional Foresight can be considered to fulfill a briding role between the two by taking advantage of corporate Foresight done at corporations which are based in the regions and by orienting on the broader national Foresight and the related challenges covered by these studies. In addition regional Foresight also involves stakeholders who might be engaged in national as well as corporate but presumably these stakeholders play a more important and prominent role in the regional Foresight. Also it is understood that regional networks are important for the successful implementation of the results. Also at the regional dimension it shows that stronger personal linkages exist than in national or corporate Foresight.The article introduces and discusses two regional Foresight case studies in Russian regions, namely Bashkortostan and Samara. Regional Foresight in both case studies was designed to mirror the quadruple helix instead of focusing on the triple helix only as it is done in many other regional Foresight cases, e.g. the focus was extended beyond the science, government and industry stakeholders by including civil society as well. However the limitation of the case studies is the modest participation and representation of the innovative industries sectors which is also due to the common weakness of Russian industry overall. Still it is found that both cases created reasonable momentum for developing the regions in the STI dimension but also even broader in the economic and social welfare dimension.

The co-creation of regional futures: Facilitating action research in regional foresight

This article presents the interconnected phases of a regional-foresight process in an AR perspective within the context of a complex regional dynamic of actors with distinct local and regional political presences. The analysis is based on a Norwegian case of AR on regional foresight. The article reflects upon and develops the concept of action research (AR) as it relates to regional-foresight practices in connection with regional planning strategies (policies), according to Norway's new Planning and Building Act (PBA, 2008). Both AR and regional foresight are broad terms within a number of domains, and several contributions have sought to show how these are interlinked Ramos (2006). The focus is on how AR and action researchers both contribute to the co-creation of regional and sub-regional formulation of planning by regional-foresight processes, which are driven by decision-making regional bodies. This article contributes to the understanding of how an AR strategy of ‘strategic facilitation’ may improve the overall foresight capacity of all regional actors, both in concert and as single stakeholders. Also it furthers the understanding of how an AR approach may assist in transforming the foresight practices and the strategic decision-making into a more transparent process.

Foresight for public procurement and regional innovation policy: The case of Lombardy

Public procurement can be a major source of innovation. The potential benefits of public procurement might be fully exploited through the acquisition not only of appliances which are already available in the market, but also of new appliances which are tailored to the specific needs of the local community and might be exported as well to the international markets. In this way, public procurement might allow to improve the services delivered to the local community and to increase the technological competitiveness of the local industrial and research system. In this context, regional foresight might help identify both long-term societal needs and the patterns of evolution of emerging technologies that can match these needs. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate, trough the recent experience of the regional government of Lombardy, the role of foresight for enhancing public procurement and innovation policy at the regional level.