Regional Population Distribution Research Articles

A rapid analysis method for regional population distribution safety based on societal risk assessment

The population distribution within areas potentially impacted by major accidents is crucial for societal risk analysis. Population data are essential for land use planning activities related to major accident hazards. However, repeated quantitative risk assessments (QRA) and diverse planning scenarios complicate planning decisions in Major Hazard Installation (MHI) areas. This study introduces an analysis method for the safety of population distribution in potential impact zones of major accidents. By combining accident simulation and population distribution characteristics analysis, we established standardized indicators that succinctly indicate safety thresholds for societal risks, addressing the challenge of rapidly assessing off-site population safety. A rapid formula meeting practical needs is provided for urban managers and planners, enabling them to easily evaluate how population density and distribution affect societal risks in MHI areas. Finally, we applied this method to the flammable and explosive hazardous material enterprises in Shijiazhuang, China, demonstrating its functionality and practicality. The application results suggest its potential as a useful decision-support method for guiding urban planning and emergency management. This work offers new insights and valuable demonstrations for enhancing vulnerability and land use risk assessments in MHI regions.

Enhancing SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in Malawi using telephone syndromic surveillance from July 2020 to April 2022

IntroductionMonitoring the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in low-resource countries such as Malawi requires cost-effective surveillance strategies. This study explored the potential utility of phone-based syndromic surveillance in terms of its reach, monitoring...

Spatial Agglomeration and Diffusion of Population Based on a Regional Density Function Approach: A Case Study of Shandong Province in China

Population density functions have long been used to describe the spatial structure of regional population distributions. Several studies have been conducted to examine the population distribution in Shandong Province, China, but few have applied regional density functions to the analysis. Therefore, based on the 2000, 2010, and 2020 population censuses, this study used monocentric and polycentric regional density functions to study the characteristics of population agglomeration and diffusion in Shandong. This is followed by an in-depth discussion based on population growth rate data and hot- and cold-spot analyses. The results showed that the Shandong Province population was spatially unevenly distributed. Population growth rates were higher in urban centers and counties, with more significant changes in population size in the eastern coastal areas than in the inland areas. As verified in this study, the logarithmic form of the single-center regional density function R2 was greater than 0.8, which was in line with the population spatial structure of Shandong Province. During the study period, the estimated population density of the regional center and the absolute value of the regional population density gradient both increased, indicating a clear and increasing trend of centripetal agglomeration of regional centers over the study period. Overall, the R2 value of the multicenter region density function was higher than that of the single-center region density function. The polycentric regional density function showed that the population density gradient of some centers had a downward trend, which reflected the spatial development trend of outward diffusion in these centers. Meanwhile, the variation in the estimated population density and the population density gradient exhibited differences in the central population distribution patterns at different levels.

The Fairness and Influencing Factors of the Spatial Distribution of Public Services in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei

Achieving the equalization of public services is one of the main goals of regional highquality development at this stage. It plays an important guiding role in optimizing the spatial pattern of a metropolis. Taking Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei as the research area, this paper used hotspot analysis, spatial measurement, and other methods to conduct quantitative analysis and empirical research based on POI data, census data, etc., to identify regional public service centers and population distribution centers, and compared and matched them. This study built public service evaluation indicators, comprehensively evaluated the public service level of each district and county in the region, established a spatial error model, and empirically analyzed the differences in the comprehensive public service level of 200 districts and counties in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. The results show that there is a certain degree of mismatch between the comprehensive hotspots of density of public service facilities and the hotspots of permanent populations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. The spatial differentiation of the comprehensive level of public services is obvious, showing the characteristics of “high, middle, and low in the north” and “high in the core urban area and low in other districts and counties”. Government policies, economic development level, and the level of urbanization have a significant positive effect on the public service level. The article also discussed the policy implications of the conclusions, as well as corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.

Влияние инфраструктуры на размещение населения и развитие регионов России

High divergence of demographic and socio-economic development significantly hinders the sustainable growth of the Russian economy. This article analyses the influence of infrastructure on population distribution and development of Russian regions. The study focuses on theoretical and practical issues related to identifying the features of infrastructure development as a factor of settlement and formation of population, considering the migration attractiveness of Russian regions. The research aimed to reveal a correlation between the regional infrastructure development and population distribution characterised by its density and net migration. To this end, we calculated the correlation between these indicators of population distribution and development indices of transport, energy, social, communal and telecommunications infrastructure. Additionally, the correlation between gross regional product and the same infrastructure development indices was estimated. The correlation analysis revealed the presence of a weak positive relationship between the regional population density, net migration, and all infrastructure development indices, except for social one. The strongest positive relationship is observed between the regional population density and the transport infrastructure development index. Good transport accessibility gives people easier access to other types of infrastructure and consequently increases the spatial connectivity and demographic potential of certain areas. Infrastructure development greatly influences not only social indicators of regional development but also economic ones, as shown by the correlation between gross regional product and development indices of transport, telecommunications and energy infrastructure. Thus, according to the conducted statistical analysis, the existing but weak relationship between infrastructure development indices and population distribution confirms the presence of a set of factors, where infrastructure is not the main one. Nevertheless, the removal of infrastructure constraints and an increase in the infrastructure quality and availability will help overcome both the demographic and economic contraction of Russia.

Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina

Much of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to undergo subsidence due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with eustatic sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to an increased rate of relative SLR. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model to project storm surges across coastal North Carolina. Recent hurricanes Irene and Matthew are simulated considering SLR and subsidence estimates for 2100. Relative to present day conditions, storm surge susceptible regions increase by 27% (Irene) to 40% (Matthew) due to subsidence. Combined with SLR (+ 74 cm), results suggest more than a doubling of areal flood extent for Irene and more than a three-fold increase for Hurricane Matthew. Considering current regional population distributions, this translates to an increase in at-risk populations of 18% to 61% due to subsidence. Even further, exposed populations are projected to swell relative to Matthew and Irene baseline simulations (8200 and 28,500) by more than 70,000 in all SLR scenarios (79,400 to 133,600). While increases in surge inundation are driven primarily by SLR in the region, there remains a substantial contribution due to vertical land movement. This outlines the importance of exploring spatially variable land movement in surge prediction, independent of SLR.

Drip-and-Ship for Thrombectomy Treatment in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke Leads to Inferior Clinical Outcomes in a Stroke Network Covering Vast Rural Areas Compared to Direct Admission to a Comprehensive Stroke Center.

Introduction: Organizing regional stroke care considering thrombolysis as well as mechanical thrombectomy (MTE) remains challenging in light of a wide range of regional population distribution. To compare outcomes of patients in a stroke network covering vast rural areas in southwestern Germany who underwent MTE via direct admission to a single comprehensive stroke center [CSC; mothership (MS)] with those of patients transferred from primary stroke centers [PSCs; drip-and-ship (DS)], we undertook this analysis of consecutive stroke patients with MTE.Materials and Methods: Patients who underwent MTE at the CSC between January 2013 and December 2016 were included in the analysis. The primary outcome measure was 90-day functional independence [modified Rankin score (mRS) 0–2]. Secondary outcome measures included time from stroke onset to recanalization/end of MTE, angiographic outcomes, and mortality rates.Results: Three hundred and thirty-two consecutive patients were included (MS 222 and DS 110). Median age was 74 in both arms of the study, and there was no significant difference in baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores (median MS 15 vs. 16 DS). Intravenous (IV) thrombolysis (IVT) rates differed significantly (55% MS vs. 70% DS, p = 0.008). Time from stroke onset to recanalization/end of MTE was 112 min shorter in the MS group (median 230 vs. 342 min, p < 0.001). Successful recanalization [thrombolysis in cerebral infarction (TICI) 2b-3] was achieved in 72% of patients in the MS group and 73% in the DS group. There was a significant difference in 90-day functional independence (37% MS vs. 24% DS, p = 0.017), whereas no significant differences were observed for mortality rates at 90 days (MS 22% vs. DS 17%, p = 0.306).Discussion: Our data suggest that patients who had an acute ischemic stroke admitted directly to a CSC may have better 90-day outcomes than those transferred secondarily for thrombectomy from a PSC.

Geography and regional economic growth: The high cost of deviating from nature

AbstractWe analyze the role of nature and geography in determining economic and social outcomes. We propose a theoretical model relating geography and nature to economic growth, and examine that model using data from NUTS 2 European regions. By doing this, we identify the predictive power of first‐nature variables to explain regional population distribution. Then we analyze the effects of misadjustment between the actual and predicted distribution of populations on economic performance. Our results indicate that deviating from first‐nature outcomes has a significant negative effect on economic growth. The main policy implication emerging from our analysis is that strategies that harmonize with nature and geography yield better social welfare than those policies that conflict with them.

Impact of Urbanization and Dietary Patterns on Development of Colorectal Cancer in Indian Population – A Review

Urbanization, described as social development, benefits the human population if it is well planned. India contributes major distinctive facets of urbanization which is developing at remarkable rates. The regional distribution of population in India is irregular as only six large states are responsible for half of the urban populaces. India is also known for its different cultures, languages and food habits. Owing to the region-specific food habits, rice is cultivated widely and gives a better yield than the other grains. Pulses that are rich in protein are the next eminent source for people. One of the crucial underlying problems is people give more importance to the taste than nutritional value. As a consequence, immense counts of individuals who can manage to devour a healthy diet do not do so and instances of severe deficiency and malnutrition and certain other gut-associated diseases are seen. Colorectal cancer, which is the most prevailing cancer around the globe, is the major cause of cancer-associated mortality in developing countries. High-fat diet like animal fat that favors the growth of unwanted bacterial flora is the chief threat for colorectal cancer. It is well known that urbanization has fetched several modifications in the lifestyle and food habits which successively enhanced the threat of various diseases. Hence in this review, we focused mainly on the impact of rapid urbanization and other lifestyle and dietary habits on the development of colorectal cancer in India.

Epidemiological characteristics and forecasting incidence for patients with breast cancer in Shantou, Southern China: 2006-2017.

This study aimed to explore the epidemiological characteristics of breast cancer and establish an Exponential Smoothing (ETS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to predict the development of incidence in Shantou. This study has a large sample size, strong representativeness, and wide‐ranging and comprehensive medical insurance information, which can fill the gaps in basic epidemiological research on breast cancer in Shantou. Successful completion of this study is a helpful tool to understand the epidemiology of Guangdong Province and Southern China. This study also provides data and scientific references for the government and future research on breast cancer prevention and control. This retrospective study was conducted to describe the epidemic intensity, epidemic distribution, and epidemic trend of breast cancer in Shantou, Guangdong Province, from 2006 to 2017, gathered from the Shantou's Medical Security Bureau covers the whole districts of Shantou. ETS and ARIMA models were used to describe the regional distribution, time distribution, and population distribution of breast cancer in Shantou. Moreover, based on the ARIMA model and ETS model, the incidence trend of breast cancer was predicted during 2018–2022. This study included 5,681 breast cancer patients, majority of whom were aged 50–59 years. The male‐to‐female ratio of the breast cancer patients was about 1:107 (the same ratio of the insured population was 1:1). Female patients accounted for 98.61% of the total insured population. The incidence and mortality rates of female breast cancer were 16.42/100,000 and 0.66/100,000, respectively. Based on the ARIMA model or ARIMA and ETS model, a gradually decreasing trend in the incidence of breast cancer is expected in the future. Comparing the performances of the ARIMA model and ETS model, ARIMA (4, 0, 1) (0, 1, 0) model had a lower the root mean squared error and the mean absolute percentage error than ETS (M, N) model. This population‐based retrospective study showed that the high‐risk age for the age‐specific incidence of female breast cancer was 50–55 years. It is recommended that healthcare administration should strengthen program awareness and education regarding breast cancer prevention and control. It is also possible that feasibility of extrapolating the current methodology to other future studies or broader populations in which the cancer registry data are not available.

Spatial distribution of rural population from a climate perspective: Evidence from Jiangxi Province in China.

The research on rural population distribution from a climate perspective is rare. Therefore, this study adopts this perspective and uses the ordinary least squares and spatial econometric models to explore the spatial distribution characteristics of the rural population in the Poyang Lake ecological economic zone. Results show that (1) a significant spatial autocorrelation is present in the distribution of rural population, and a spatial correlation exists between the population distribution and climatic factors, (2) the influence of climatic factors on the distribution of rural population in the Poyang Lake ecological economic zone is greater than that of economic factors, and (3) the annual average sunshine and annual average rainfall have a significant negative effect on the distribution of the regional rural population, which is contrary to the expectations., so we then analyze this negative effect on the regional rural population distribution. It is found that (1) the influence of climate factors on the distribution of rural population in lake area is far more than that of economic factors, and more consideration should be given to the influence of climate factors on the population distribution in the lake area, (2) different geographical capital and natural resource endowment, the influence of climate on micro-regional population distribution may be different from the general law, (3) the spatial measurement model which takes spatial dependence into account can reveal the influence of climate on rural population distribution more accurately.

Sustainable Intensification of Cultivated Land Use and Its Influencing Factors at the Farming Household Scale: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

Promoting the sustainable intensification of cultivated land use (SICL) has become crucial for ensuring a sufficient supply of grain and important agricultural products, as well as for the sustainable use of resources. Taking widely used areas of Shandong Province in China as examples, an analytical scale and level framework for SICL is constructed in this study. It measures the level of SICL through material flow analysis, constructs Tobit models to analyze the influencing factors of SICL at the farming household scale, and analyzes the transition mechanisms of SICL. The results show that the overall level of SICL in Shandong Province is low, and the spatial distribution is uneven. There are relatively more farmers participating in unsustainable intensification than in medium or low levels of SICL, with farmers working at a high level of SICL making up the smallest proportion. The factors that determine the level of SICL at which farmers work vary significantly. More male farmers operate at a low SICL level than female farmers, while females outnumber males at a high SICL level. This is mainly related to the regional distribution of age and population. Meanwhile, with larger cultivated land areas, there is a lower degree of land fragmentation, with a higher level of SICL corresponding to a smaller distance to the nearest town closer within 1–5 km from the town center. We can see the level of SICL and its processes themselves are closely related to time and space scales. Based on the above analysis, it is necessary to clarify the standard processes of SICL to adapt them to local conditions. This includes instructing managers on how to improve resource utilization, increase the sustainable development of cultivated land and establish a comprehensively efficient and functional SICL mechanism. The sustainable intensification of cultivated land use and its specific application in the new era are conducive to enriching the frontier theories and methodology of sustainable development, and are of great significance to the advancement of green agriculture and the decision-making of rural high-quality development.

The correlations of transportation with regional economy and demographic space1

Based on the precise logical analysis method, the paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation model of transportation superiority in terms of transportation network density, the influence of transportation arteries, and regional location-specific advantages, then select Southwest China as a case to evaluate the transportation superiority and analyze the correlations of transportation with regional economic development and population distribution. The results show that there is a positive correlation between regional transportation superiority and regional population density as well as GDP per capita in the spatial distribution. Finally, by using the fuzzy logic analysis method, we propose countermeasures and suggestions for the impact of transportation integration on regional economic development and population distribution.

The Influence of the Regional Revitalization Policy on Taiwan’s Land Planning_Taking Pingtung County Township as an Example

Taiwan’s population estimate report released in August 2018 shows that the population will decrease by over 1/4 by 2065, and the proportion of the elderly population in the total population will increase to 41.2%. In addition, in terms of population distribution, the urban population accounted for 69.2% of the total in 2017 and will exceed 70% by 2065, thus, the problem of uneven regional population distribution will become more severe. Moreover, as the young and strong labor force flock in large cities, the rural industrial labor force is insufficient, and the gap between urban and rural areas is widening. Therefore, the Executive Yuan set 2019 in Taiwan as the first year of local revitalization as a land development strategy to address population loss, recreate local employment opportunities, and revitalize the local industrial economy. In this context, Taiwan began promoting the Land Planning Law in 2016, which aims to cope with climate change, ensure land safety, conserve the natural environment and cultural assets, promote rational allocation of resources and industries, and pursue sustainable development. However, the priority areas for local revitalization are mostly remote and vulnerable areas, such as agricultural, hillside, and forest lands. Land use laws and regulations have many restrictions and lack flexibility in use, which is not conducive to attracting industries or population return. Thus, this study chose Pingtung County as a case study to explore the related factors of land use under the promotion of local industrial development, and provide strategic direction for Taiwan’s township land planning.

An assessment of self-reported COVID-19 related symptoms of 227,898 users of a social networking service in Japan: Has the regional risk changed after the declaration of the state of emergency?

BackgroundIn the absence of widespread testing, symptomatic monitoring efforts may allow for understanding the epidemiological situation of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan. We obtained data from a social networking service (SNS) messaging application that monitors self-reported COVID-19 related symptoms in real time in Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan. We aimed at not only understanding the epidemiological situation of COVID-19 in the prefecture, but also highlighting the usefulness of symptomatic monitoring approaches that rely on self-reporting using SNS during a pandemic, and informing the assessment of Japan's emergency declaration over COVID-19. MethodsWe analysed symptoms data (fever over 37.5° and a strong feeling of weariness or shortness of breath), reported voluntarily via SNS chatbot by 227,898 residents of Fukuoka Prefecture during March 27 to May 3, 2020, including April 7, when a state of emergency was declared. We estimated the spatial correlation coefficient between the number of the self-reported cases of COVID-19 related symptoms and the number of PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases in the period (obtained from the prefecture website); and estimated the empirical Bayes age- and sex-standardised incidence ratio (EBSIR) of the symptoms in the period, compared before and after the declaration. The number of symptom cases was weighted by age and sex to reflect the regional population distribution according to the 2015 national census. FindingsOf the participants, 3.47% reported symptoms. There was a strong spatial correlation of 0.847 (p < 0.001) at municipality level between the weighted number of self-reported symptoms and the number of COVID-19 cases for both symptoms. The EBSIR at post-code level was not likely to change remarkably before and after the declaration of the emergency, but the gap in EBSIR between high-risk and low-risk areas appeared to have increased after the declaration. InterpretationWhile caution is necessary as the data was limited to SNS users, the self-reported COVID-19 related symptoms considered in the study had high epidemiological evaluation ability. In addition, though based on visual assessment, after the declaration of the emergency, regional containment of the infection risk might have strengthened to some extent. SNS, which can provide a high level of real-time, voluntary symptom data collection, can be used to assess the epidemiology of a pandemic, as well as to assist in policy assessments such as emergency declarations. FundingThe present work was supported in part by a grant from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (H29-Gantaisaku-ippan-009).

A review of economic and environmental consequences from waste-based power generation: Evidence from Taiwan

Energy sustainability is keyed to social development, and thus finding renewable and clean energy sources is crucial to modern society. Waste to energy technology is of particular interest in recent years because the feedstock supply is relatively stable and the technology is less influenced by climate and geographic conditions. This study first reviews this technology, and then provides a case study to explore the potential investment, economic benefits, and environmental consequences associated with such an application. The results indicate that the energy conversion efficiency and net social benefits are highly dependent on the composition of the wastes, the transportation costs, and the distribution of regional population. The results imply that for the application of waste to energy technology to be efficient and effective, the locations of refuse plants play an important role, as well as the recycled rates of municipal solid wastes. Policy implications regarding these points are also discussed in detail.

Regional Population Distribution of Korea in the Early 19th Century as Seen through Daedongjiji

이 연구는 김정호가 저술한 『대동지지』를 활용하여 전국 311개 군현의 인구와 인구밀도를 구하고, 인구의 지역적 분포를 살펴보는 데 목적이 있다. 『대동지지』는 1828년경의 인구자료를 수록하고 있다. 이를 분석한 결과, 당시 인구의 절대숫자가 많았던 군현은 각 도의 감영이 위치하거나 부·목·도호부 등이 설치된 행정 및 군사중심지였다. 그리고 대체로 인구가 많은 군현일수록 면적이 넓었으며, 반대로 인구가 적은 군현일수록 면적이 좁았다. 인구밀도로 본 인구의 지역적 분포 양상은 인구규모의 그것과 차이를 보였다. 인구밀도가 높은 군현은 해안과 하천변의 평야에 주로 분포하였으며, 낮은 군현은 지형과 기후조건이 열악한 산지에 편중되어 있었다. 또한 인구밀도는 경지밀도, 군현면적과도 깊은 상관관계를 보였다. 인구밀도가 높은 지역일수록 경지밀도가 높았고 면적이 좁았으며, 인구밀도가 낮은 지역은 반대의 경향을 보였다.This paper is aimed at finding population and population density of 311 gun and hyeon and looking at the regional distribution of population by examining the book Daedongjiji, which contains population data from around 1828 written by Kim Jung-ho. According to the analysis in this paper, gun and hyeon, which had large absolute populations, were where gamyeong was located or where administrative and military centers such as bu, mok, and dohobu were installed. In addition, the more populated gun and hyeon were, the larger the area, and vice versa, the smaller the population, the smaller. The regional distribution patterns of population density differed from those of population size. The densely populated gun and hyeon were mainly distributed on the coastal plains and riversides, while sparsely populated gun and hyeon were concentrated in mountainous areas with poor topography and climate conditions. The density of population also showed a strong correlation with the density of arable land and the size of gun and hyeon. The highly populated areas tended to show higher arable land densities and smaller sizes, while lowly populated areas tended to be the opposite.

Enhanced data and methods for improving open and free global population grids: putting ‘leaving no one behind’ into practice

ABSTRACTData on global population distribution are a strategic resource currently in high demand in an age of new Development Agendas that call for universal inclusiveness of people. However, quality, detail, and age of census data varies significantly by country and suffers from shortcomings that propagate to derived population grids and their applications. In this work, the improved capabilities of recent remote sensing-derived global settlement data to detect and mitigate major discrepancies with census data is explored. Open layers mapping built-up presence were used to revise census units deemed as ‘unpopulated’ and to harmonize population distribution along coastlines. Automated procedures to detect and mitigate these anomalies, while minimizing changes to census geometry, preserving the regional distribution of population, and the overall counts were developed, tested, and applied. The two procedures employed for the detection of deficiencies in global census data obtained high rates of true positives, after verification and validation. Results also show that the targeted anomalies were significantly mitigated and are encouraging for further uses of free and open geospatial data derived from remote sensing in complementing and improving conventional sources of fundamental population statistics.

Evaluating the suitability of different terrains for sustaining human settlements according to the local elevation range in China using the ASTER GDEM

The topographical suitability assessment of human settlements (SAHS) creates a solid foundation for regional population distribution and socio-economic development. Local elevation range (LER) is an important factor that can be used to assess the suitability of different terrains for sustaining human settlements. However, current digital elevation model (DEM)-based LER products suffer from some challenges typically because of their subjectively selected neighborhood scales and coarser spatial resolution. In this study, we initially determined the optimal statistical window and then calculated the appropriate LER with the finer resolution data of the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global DEM (ASTER GDEM) products for China. Then, the appropriate LER was used to evaluate the topographical SAHS and its correlations with the national gridded population distribution (1 km × 1 km) in 2010. The results show that the optimal statistical window for calculating a 1 arc-second (about 30 m) resolution GDEM LER for China can be determined using a 51 × 51 grid unit (width × height) within a rectangular neighborhood, corresponding to an area of about 2.34 km2. Secondly, the LER values in the southern and western China were greater than those of the north and east, showing a trend which consistently reflects the general spatial features of landforms. Finally, the relationship between GDEM LER and population density was highly correlated with the R2 value of 0.81. It showed that 85.22% of the Chinese population was located in areas where the LER is lower than 500 m. The topographically suitable area within China decreased from the southeastern coastal zone towards the northwestern inland areas due to transition from plains and basins to plateaus and mountains. The total area of moderate to high suitable level was 423.84 × 104 km2, or 44.15% of the total land area, with 88.17% of the national population. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of appropriate LER in evaluating the topographical SAHS as well as its significant impact on population distribution.

Climate change, internal migration, and the future spatial distribution of population: a case study of New Zealand

This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of population in New Zealand, focusing on the effects of climate on internal migration dynamics. Specifically, a gravity modelling framework is first used to identify climate variables that have statistically significant associations with internal migration. The gravity model is then embedded within a population projection model to evaluate the effect of climate scenarios on regional populations. Of the climate variables, only surface radiation in the origin exhibits a significant association with internal migration. Including this variable in the population projection model makes a small difference to the regional population distribution, and the difference between different climate scenarios is negligible. Overall, the results suggest that, while statistically significant, climate change in the form of changes in the distribution of the weather will have a negligible effect on the population distribution of New Zealand at the regional level. These null results probably reflect the high capacity for adaptation to climate change available to a developed country.