Abstract
Much of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to undergo subsidence due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with eustatic sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to an increased rate of relative SLR. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model to project storm surges across coastal North Carolina. Recent hurricanes Irene and Matthew are simulated considering SLR and subsidence estimates for 2100. Relative to present day conditions, storm surge susceptible regions increase by 27% (Irene) to 40% (Matthew) due to subsidence. Combined with SLR (+ 74 cm), results suggest more than a doubling of areal flood extent for Irene and more than a three-fold increase for Hurricane Matthew. Considering current regional population distributions, this translates to an increase in at-risk populations of 18% to 61% due to subsidence. Even further, exposed populations are projected to swell relative to Matthew and Irene baseline simulations (8200 and 28,500) by more than 70,000 in all SLR scenarios (79,400 to 133,600). While increases in surge inundation are driven primarily by SLR in the region, there remains a substantial contribution due to vertical land movement. This outlines the importance of exploring spatially variable land movement in surge prediction, independent of SLR.
Highlights
Rising sea levels remain a significant driver of coastal flooding globally
Our results indicate that much of the low-lying portions of the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula (A-PP) and those south of the Pamlico River will be reclaimed by the sound in coming decades due to sea level rise (SLR), becoming uninhabitable as they transition into part of the tidal basin
Using estimates for 2100, we examine the areal extent, at-risk populations, as well as flood timing and depth changes associated with subsidence and SLR
Summary
Rising sea levels remain a significant driver of coastal flooding globally. By 2100, even in low carbon emissions scenarios over 190 million people are expected to be at-risk of tidal flooding alone[14,15]. We investigate the effect of land subsidence and SLR in coastal North Carolina with the objective to (1) quantify the increased extent of areas prone to storm surge due to predicted VLM, and (2) to examine the relative contributions of SLR and subsidence to coastal flooding. These efforts have important implications for flood mitigation and planning of coastal resilience by projecting regional vulnerability to storm surge flooding. Recent works[40] have highlighted land subsidence as a global challenge, underlining the importance of understanding the unique contributions to flooding from both VLM and eustatic SLR in North Carolina and beyond
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