Regional Climate Anomalies Research Articles

Features of subseasonal concurrent variations between subtropical and polar front jets and their association with temperature anomalies in China

Subseasonal variability of atmospheric circulation in mid-high latitudes is highly correlated to the upper-level jet streams, acting as a major contributor to the global or regional persistent climate anomalies. In this study, the features of subseasonal concurrent variations (SCVs) between East Asian Polar Front Jet (EAPJ) and Subtropical Jet (EASJ), and corresponding atmospheric circulation and temperature anomalies in China are investigated by using the observational data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets. Results show that the main variability modes of the winter upper-level wind fields on subseasonal time scales are characterized by the meridional shift in opposite directions and out-of-phase variations in the intensity of the EASJ and EAPJ. These concurrent variations between the two jets have a significant oscillation cycle with a period of 10–25 days. Accompanied by the location (intensity) SCV of the two jets, the mid-latitude circulation systems show significant zonal shifts (local intensity changes), resulting in alternations of the atmospheric circulation between zonal and meridional types. The typical meridional circulation is characterized by a strong East Asian trough and its upstream strong high-pressure ridges. Meanwhile, gradient force between Siberian high and the Aleutian low is anomalously strong. As a result, the SCVs between two jets can cause widespread and persistent low temperature anomalies over China, usually lasting more than three days. In the case of the location SCV of the two jets, the low temperature anomalies concentrate in northern China, particularly in north of 40°N. In the case of the intensity SCV of the two jets, the low temperature anomalies occur in most parts of China, notably in south of 40°N. These results are helpful to improve the prediction of atmospheric circulation and temperature anomalies in East Asia during winter.

Different Configurations of Cross-Equatorial Flows over the Indian Ocean–Western Maritime Continent and Their Implications for Improving Regional Climate Predictability

Abstract Low-level cross-equatorial flows (CEFs) over the Indian Ocean–western Maritime Continent (IO-wMC) play a crucial role in transporting energy, mass, and water vapor into the Northern Hemisphere during the Asian summer monsoon season (May–September). Utilizing ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA5), we investigate three CEFs over the IO-wMC: the Somali-CEF, Bay of Bengal CEF (BoB-CEF), and South China Sea CEF (SCS-CEF). The statistical independence of the Somali-CEF and BoB-CEF implies distinct formation processes on the interannual time scale. To examine the interannual variability of CEFs, we perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of vertically integrated meridional winds from surface pressure to 850 hPa over the equatorial IO-wMC. The first EOF mode reveals a weakening of the Somali-CEF and strengthening of the BoB-CEF and SCS-CEF, which is associated with the concurrent summer Indian Ocean dipole and quasi-biennial phase transition of El Niño events. The second EOF is related to the Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) mode that often emerges in post–El Niño summers. Despite the IPOC’s influence on meridional winds over the tropical southwestern Indian Ocean, three CEFs are uncorrelated with the EOF2. On the other hand, the Somali-CEF and BoB-CEF are significantly weakened in the EOF3. The EOF3 is an ENSO-unrelated internal IPOC mode. We further use a multilinear regression model based on preceding sea surface temperature (SST) over the Indo-Pacific and EOF3 to predict regional climate anomalies and compare the prediction skill with the SST-based models. Our results suggest that adding EOF2- and EOF3-related variability to the prediction model can improve Asian summer monsoon predictability. Significance Statement This study examines the interannual variability of low-level cross-equatorial flows (CEFs) over the Indian Ocean and western Maritime Continent, crucial components of the Asian summer monsoon. We identify three CEFs and investigate their relationships with interannual sea surface temperature modes in the Indo-Pacific region. The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of equatorial meridional wind reveal diverse CEF configurations and post–El Niño summer wind variability. Also, the EOFs distinguishes between El Niño and El Niño–unrelated equatorial meridional wind variability. Utilizing a multilinear regression model based on both preceding Indo-Pacific SST modes and configurations of CEFs, we demonstrate the potential to enhance regional climate predictions, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding and forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon and its associated climate impacts.

Influences of teleconnections on climate variables in northern and northeastern Thailand

Abstract Teleconnection events can influence normal regional weather patterns and affect weather forecast accuracy. To improve the forecast ability, the relationship between main teleconnections such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and climate variables (rainfall, maximum and minimum surface temperature, vertical mixing ratio, and vertical maximum temperature) was established using lag correlation coefficient and t-test methods. The results reveal moderately significant correlations between El Niño, positive IOD and rainfall, and vertical mixing ratio, which can be associated with lower-than-usual rainfall. The coincidence between El Niño and positive IOD events can worsen drought. Even though the MJO and regional weather correlations were significant, the magnitude of correlation coefficients was negligible. In addition, the spatiotemporal distribution of ENSO shows that the strong El Niño has more influence on rainfall anomalies in the post-1980s. Since there are insufficient studies on the association between teleconnections and climate variables, especially vertical mixing ratio, our findings can benefit prediction development for teleconnection-induced regional climate anomalies for extreme events and water management preparations in northern and northeastern Thailand.

Soil water migration under three tree species in response to water stress and extreme rainstorms

In arid and semi-arid areas, plant growth and survival are directly related to the soil water content. The soil water content is an important parameter for monitoring land degradation. A better understanding of how forests use soil water is crucial for the quantification how the terrestrial hydrologic cycle adapts to forestry practices and regional climate anomalies in these areas. This study investigated the variation of the water balance under different precipitation patterns (including soil water redistribution patterns under water stress and extreme rainstorms) under three common tree species in a mountainous area of Beijing were investigated. The results showed that soil water storage in the 80–150 cm layer played an important role for the ability of Platycladus orientalis (L.) Franco and Quercus variabilis Blume to survive drought during a dry season. Compared to P. orientalis and Q. variabilis, the duration of water stress was shortest for Pinus tabulaeformis Carr. (15 months). P. tabulaeformis had a higher ability to utilize top soil water but showed a less balanced use of soil water in each soil layer. It also had the strongest ability to replenish groundwater through deep seepage. P. tabulaeformis may resist drought by transferring water to deeper soil horizons, where it is less susceptible to evaporation and where moisture can be temporarily stored. P. orientalis and Q. variabilis are more dependent on soil water storage in response to water stress conditions.

Atmosphere-Ocean Processes Governing Inflow to the Northern Caribbean Sea

Near-surface currents entering the northern Caribbean from the Atlantic are described using ocean reanalysis at monthly to daily timescales, underpinned by satellite data assimilation. Statistical analyses involved spatial clustering into current vector modes with associated time scores for quantifying spectral power and regression onto atmospheric fields. Inflow across the Anegada, Mona, Windward (AMW) Passages peaks at ~100 m depth at ~0.2 m/s during summer and pulses at periods of 45, 100, and 365 days, and at 3, 6.5 years. The intra-seasonal periods may relate to Madden–Julian Oscillations and westward ocean Rossby waves, while inter-annual periods associate with regional climate anomalies. An empirical orthogonal function analysis demonstrates that AMW inflow varies across multiple timescales and is enhanced when the subtropical high-pressure ridge penetrates into the western Caribbean. A case study reveals key features during a surge of inflow to the northern Caribbean. Marine climate change involves heat advected poleward by currents along the western edge of the tropical Atlantic, fed through the Caribbean Sea. Consequently, the study of inflows garners wide interest.

Changes in complex bioclimatic indicators in Crimea since the middle of the 20th century

BACKGROUND: Observed global climate changes can significantly influence on the regional climate anomalies and recreational conditions over the Crimean peninsula.
 AIM: To study the features of complex bioclimatic indicators changes on the territory of Crimea over a multidecadal period (~70 years), paying special attention to each month of the year, and on bases of obtained results to show the possible way of recreational activities development associated with these changes.
 METHODS: For calculations, we used daily hydrometeorological data for each month from the archive of observations at the network of European weather stations E-OBS (v. 17.0) from 22 stations and NCEP/NCAR R1 reanalysis for the period of 19502018. The obtained arrays were verified in accordance with an open database of standard daily station observations in Crimea in 20052018. To assess the impact of climate change on the human body, the equivalent effective temperature, normal equivalent effective temperature, weight content of oxygen in the air (partial oxygen density) (O2), wet wind chill index Hill (Hw) and index Bodmann dry wind chiller (S) were calculated. The features of their linear trends for each month in the Crimean Peninsula were analysed.
 RESULTS: Monthwise analyses of the bioclimatic indicator trends demonstrated an increase or decrease in recreational comfort in certain seasons. The most pronounced positive normal equivalent effective temperature trends over Crimea were observed from winter to spring. This indicated improved complex recreational conditions in recent decades and the possibility to extend the duration of the holiday season. The pO2, Hw and S indices had opposite tendencies throughout the year (except for December). According to the pO2 index, in the period from August to October, a physiological oxygen deficiency may be experienced throughout Crimea. Windy and uncomfortable bioclimatic conditions tend to increase in the steppes of Crimea in December.
 CONCLUSION: The patterns of changes in bioclimatic indicators revealed through this study can be used as a regulatory factor for effectively organising and conducting recreational activities in the territory of Crimea and thus ensure the duration of the recreational period.

Variations of Summertime SSTA Independent of ENSO in the Maritime Continent and Their Possible Impacts on Rainfall in the Asian–Australian Monsoon Region

Abstract The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Maritime Continent (MC) region are mainly related to local variability, ENSO, and the Indian Ocean dipole. Using the reanalysis data from NOAA and NCEP–NCAR, by employing the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, we have explored the principal mode of ENSO-independent summertime SSTA in the MC and its associations with regional climate anomalies. After ENSO signals have been removed, the leading mode of SSTA in the MC exhibits a uniformly signed pattern, which mainly varies on an interannual time scale. The maintenance mechanisms of the ENSO-independent SSTA are different in different subregions, especially over the region south of Java and the tropical northwestern Pacific. When the time coefficient of the first leading EOF mode (EOF1) is positive, warmer SSTAs are observed in the area south of Java. The oceanic dynamic heating there facilitates the warmer SSTA. Thus, the Gill-type response of the atmosphere is found over the region south of Java. The diabatic cooling in the atmosphere is dominant over the tropical northwestern Pacific where the warmer SSTA is maintained by the absorption of solar radiation due to less cloud cover there. A tilted vertical circulation is hence formed, linking the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean with the tropical northwestern Pacific. The anomalous circulations in the Asian–Australian monsoon region are affected by this ENSO-independent SSTA mode, resulting in decreased summer rainfall anomaly in the region near the southeast coast of China and increased winter precipitation anomaly over the extratropical region of Australia.

Predicting Model for Air Transport Demand under Uncertainties Based on Particle Filter

The outbreak of the COVID-19 has brought about huge economic loss and civil aviation industries all over the world have suffered severe damage. An effective method is urgently needed to accurately predict air-transport demand under the influences of such accidental factors. This paper proposes a novel predicting framework for the air-transport demand considering the uncertainties caused by accidental factors including regional wars, climatic anomalies, and virus outbreaks. By employing a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sARIMA) model as the basic model, a particle filter (PF)-based sARIMA-pf model is proposed. The applicability of adapting the high-order sARIMA model as the state transition model in a PF framework is shown and proven to be effective. The proposed method has the advantage of coping with short-term prediction with known uncertainties. By conducting case studies on the prediction of air passenger traffic volume in China, the sARIMA-pf model showed better performance than the sARIMA model and improved the accuracy by 49.29% and 44.96% under the conventional and pandemic scenarios, respectively, when using the root mean square error (RMSE) as the indicator.

Prenatal climate shocks and adult height in developing countries. Evidence from Japan (1872–1917).

This paper contributes to quantifying the biological implications of short-run climatic shocks and economic fluctuations in developing countries. Relying on a unique economic, climatic and anthropometric Japanese data covering the period from 1872 to 1917 (corresponding to the early phase of Japanese industrialization), we estimate the impact of yearly and monthly regional climate anomalies and yearly nationwide business cycle reversals on the average height of Japanese conscripts and its dispersion. Our estimations detect that climate anomalies during gestation and early infancy induced a decrease in average height observed at adulthood, as well as an increase in height dispersion, indicating greater welfare inequalities. These results indicate that pre-Anthropocene climate shocks had irremediable welfare implications for the poorest segments of the population in lower income countries.

Cold and wet: Diatoms dominate the phytoplankton community during a year of anomalous weather in a Great Lakes estuary

As sentinels of climate change and other anthropogenic forces, freshwater lakes are experiencing ecosystem disruptions at every level of the food web, beginning with the phytoplankton, a highly responsive group of organisms. Most studies regarding the effects of climate change on phytoplankton focus on a potential scenario in which temperatures continuously increase and droughts intersperse heavy precipitation events. Like much of the conterminous United States in 2019, the Muskegon River watershed (Michigan, USA) experienced record-breaking rainfall accompanied by unusually cool temperatures, affording an opportunity to explore how an alternate potential climate scenario may affect phytoplankton. We conducted biweekly sampling of environmental variables and phytoplankton in Muskegon Lake, a Great Lakes Area of Concern that connects to Lake Michigan. We compared environmental variables in 2019 to the previous eight years using long-term data from the Muskegon Lake Observatory buoy, and annual monitoring excursions provided historical phytoplankton data. Under cold and wet conditions, diatoms were the single dominant division throughout the entire growth season – an unprecedented scenario in Muskegon Lake. In 10 of the 13 biweekly sampling days in 2019, diatoms comprised over 75% of the phytoplankton community in the lake by count, indicating that the spring diatom bloom persisted through the fall. Additionally, phytoplankton seasonal succession and abundance patterns typically seen in this lake were absent. In a world experiencing reduced predictability, increased variability, and regional climate anomalies, studying periods of extreme weather events may offer insight into how natural systems will be affected and respond under future climate scenarios.

Extreme Climate Anomalies Enhancing Cyanobacterial Blooms in Eutrophic Lake Taihu, China

AbstractClimate warming in combination with nutrient enrichment can greatly promote phytoplankton proliferation and blooms in eutrophic waters. Lake Taihu, China, is a large, shallow and eutrophic system. Since 2007, this lake has experienced extensive nutrient input reductions aimed at controlling cyanobacterial blooms. However, intense cyanobacterial blooms have persisted through 2017 with a record‐setting bloom occurring in May 2017. Causal analysis suggested that this bloom was sygenerically driven by high external loading from flooding in 2016 in the Taihu catchment and a notable warmer winter during 2016/2017. High precipitation during 2016 was associated with a strong 2015/2016 El Niño in combination with the joint effects of Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), while persistent warmth during 2016/2017 was strongly related to warm phases of AMO and PDO. The 2017 blooms elevated water column pH and led to dissolved oxygen depletion near the sediment, both of which mobilized phosphorus from the sediment to overlying water, further promoting cyanobacterial blooms. Our finding indicates that regional climate anomalies exacerbated eutrophication via a positive feedback mechanism, by intensifying internal nutrient cycling and aggravating cyanobacterial blooms. In light of global expansion of eutrophication and blooms, especially in large, shallow and eutrophic lakes, these regional effects of climate anomalies are nested within larger scale global warming predicted to continue in the foreseeable future.

Global and regional climate anomalies and trends: Assessment of contribution of natural and anthropogenic factors from observations and model simulations

Trends in current global and regional climate change are estimated based on observations and reanalysis data, as well as on the basis of model simulations. Special attention is paid to climate changes in the Arctic and North Eurasian regions. Temperature and sea ice changes in the Arctic and Antarctic are compared. The processes contributing to the enhancement of regional climate variability are considered. The role of natural and anthropogenic factors in climate change and the ability of models to adequately simulate current climate changes are assessed. Possible changes in relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic CO2 and CH4 emissions in the North Eurasian regions under global warming are discussed.

Contrasting impacts of two types of El Niño events on winter haze days in China's Jing-Jin-Ji region

Abstract. El Niño events differ widely in their patterns and intensities. The regional climate anomalies caused by different types of El Niño events likely lead to various impacts on winter haze pollution in China. Based on long-term site observations of haze days in China from 1961 to 2013, this study explores the effects of eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) types of El Niño events on the number of winter haze days (WHDs) in China's Jing-Jin-Ji (JJJ) region and the physical mechanisms underlying WHD changes. The results show statistically significant positive and negative correlations, respectively, between WHDs in the JJJ region and EP and CP El Niño events. At most sites in the JJJ region, the average WHD increased in all EP El Niño years, with the maximum change exceeding 2.0 d. Meanwhile, the average WHD decreased at almost all stations over this region in all CP El Niño years, with the largest change being more than −2.0 d. The changes in large-scale circulations indicate obvious positive surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies and negative sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over North China, as well as southerly wind anomalies at the middle to low troposphere over eastern China in the winters of EP El Niño years. These anomalies are conducive to increases in WHDs in the JJJ region. However, there are significant northerly and northwesterly wind anomalies at the middle to low troposphere over eastern China, as well as stronger and wider precipitation anomalies in the winters of CP El Niño years, which contribute to decreased WHDs over the JJJ region. Changes in local synoptic conditions indicate negative SLP anomalies, positive SAT anomalies, and weakened northerly winds over the JJJ region in the winters of EP El Niño years. The total occurrence frequency of circulation types conducive to the accumulation (diffusion) of aerosol pollutants is increased (decreased) by 0.4 % (0.2 %) in those winters. However, the corresponding frequency is decreased (increased) by 0.5 % (0.6 %) in the winters of CP El Niño years. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing the impacts of these two types of El Niño events on winter haze pollution in China's JJJ region.

Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer

The European summer of 1816 has often been referred to as a ‘year without a summer’ due to anomalously cold conditions and unusual wetness, which led to widespread famines and agricultural failures. The cause has often been assumed to be the eruption of Mount Tambora in April 1815, however this link has not, until now, been proven. Here we apply state-of-the-art event attribution methods to quantify the contribution by the eruption and random weather variability to this extreme European summer climate anomaly. By selecting analogue summers that have similar sea-level-pressure patterns to that observed in 1816 from both observations and unperturbed climate model simulations, we show that the circulation state can reproduce the precipitation anomaly without external forcing, but can explain only about a quarter of the anomalously cold conditions. We find that in climate models, including the forcing by the Tambora eruption makes the European cold anomaly up to 100 times more likely, while the precipitation anomaly became 1.5–3 times as likely, attributing a large fraction of the observed anomalies to the volcanic forcing. Our study thus demonstrates how linking regional climate anomalies to large-scale circulation is necessary to quantitatively interpret and attribute post-eruption variability.

Exploring the Sensitivity of Subtropical Stand Aboveground Productivity to Local and Regional Climate Signals in South China

Subtropical forest productivity is significantly affected by both natural disturbances (local and regional climate changes) and anthropogenic activities (harvesting and planting). Monthly measures of forest aboveground productivity from natural forests (primary and secondary forests) and plantations (mixed and single-species forests) were developed to explore the sensitivity of subtropical mountain productivity to the fluctuating characteristics of climate change in South China, spanning the 35-year period from 1981 to 2015. Statistical analysis showed that climate regulation differed across different forest types. The monthly average maximum temperature, precipitation, and streamflow were positively correlated with primary and mixed-forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and its components: Wood productivity (WP) and canopy productivity (CP). However, the monthly average maximum temperature, precipitation, and streamflow were negatively correlated with secondary and single-species forest ANPP and its components. The number of dry days and minimum temperature were positively associated with secondary and single-species forest productivity, but inversely associated with primary and mixed forest productivity. The multivariate ENSO (EI Niño-Southern Oscillation) index (MEI), computed based on sea level pressure, surface temperature, surface air temperature, and cloudiness over the tropical Pacific Ocean, was significantly correlated with local monthly maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin), precipitation (PRE), streamflow (FLO), and the number of dry days (DD), as well as the monthly means of primary and mixed forest aboveground productivity. In particular, the mean maximum temperature increased by 2.5, 0.9, 6.5, and 0.9 °C, and the total forest aboveground productivity decreased by an average of 5.7%, 3.0%, 2.4%, and 7.8% in response to the increased extreme high temperatures and drought events during the 1986/1988, 1997/1998, 2006/2007, and 2009/2010 EI Niño periods, respectively. Subsequently, the total aboveground productivity values increased by an average of 1.1%, 3.0%, 0.3%, and 8.6% because of lagged effects after the wet La Niña periods. The main conclusions of this study demonstrated that the influence of local and regional climatic fluctuations on subtropical forest productivity significantly differed across different forests, and community position and plant diversity differences among different forest types may prevent the uniform response of subtropical mountain aboveground productivity to regional climate anomalies. Therefore, these findings may be useful for forecasting climate-induced variation in forest aboveground productivity as well as for selecting tree species for planting in reforestation practices.

Assessment of the predictability of climate anomalies in connection with El Niño phenomena

Using long-term observational data on the temperature, precipitation, and drought and moisture indices in European and Asian regions of Russia in May–July, the degree of predictability of climate anomalies in Russian regions in connection with different types of El Nino/La Nina phenomena is estimated with assessment of the probability of different regional climate anomalies under different phase transitions for the El Nino phenomena, which are characterized by various indices, including those observed in 2015.

Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Predictions Using Optimized Combinations of ENSO Regions: Application to the Coral Sea Basin

Abstract This study examines combining ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) regions for seasonal prediction of Coral Sea tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. The Coral Sea averages ~4 TCs per season, but is characterized by strong interannual variability, with 1–9 TCs per season, over the period 1977–2012. A wavelet analysis confirms that ENSO is a key contributor to Coral Sea TC count (TCC) variability. Motivated by the impact of El Niño Modoki on regional climate anomalies, a suite of 38 linear models is constructed and assessed on its ability to predict Coral Sea seasonal TCC. Seasonal predictions of TCC are generated by a leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV). An important finding is that models made up of multiple tropical Pacific SST regions, such as those that comprise the El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) or the Trans-Niño Index (TNI), perform considerably better than models comprising only single regions, such as Niño-3.4 or Niño-4. Moreover, enhanced (suppressed) TC activity is expected in the Coral Sea when the central Pacific is anomalously cool (warm) and the eastern and western Pacific are anomalously warm (cool) during austral winter. The best cross-validated model has persistent and statistically significantly high correlations with TCC (r > 0.5) at lead times of ~6 months prior to the mean onset of the Coral Sea TC season, whereas correlations based heavily on the widely used Niño-3.4 region are not statistically significant or meaningful (r = 0.09) for the same lead times. Of the 38 models assessed, several optimized forms of the EMI and of the TNI perform best.

Climate variability and change: a perspective from the oceania region

This brief review identifies seven key science questions in relation to climate variability and change and examines recent research within the Australian and Pacific context: 1. How do the key processes controlling climate variability and predictability operate? 2. What are the nature and causes of regional climate anomalies, past variations in regional climate and extreme weather events and how will they change in the future? 3. How can we provide improved seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions? 4. What are the best projection methods? 5. What are the sea-level changes now and in the future; and how will these impact the coasts? 6. How to have significant benefits on climate service delivery and environmental management? 7. What are the best methods for assessing climate change risks, vulnerability and adaptation options?

The periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in Venezuela

We investigated the periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum incidence in time-series of malaria data (1990–2010) from three endemic regions in Venezuela. In particular, we determined whether disease epidemics were related to local climate variability and regional climate anomalies such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Malaria periodicity was found to exhibit unique features in each studied region. Significant multi-annual cycles of 2- to about 6-year periods were identified. The inter-annual variability of malaria cases was coherent with that of SSTs (ENSO), mainly at temporal scales within the 3–6 year periods. Additionally, malaria cases were intensified approximately 1 year after an El Niño event, a pattern that highlights the role of climate inter-annual variability in the epidemic patterns. Rainfall mediated the effect of ENSO on malaria locally. Particularly, rains from the last phase of the season had a critical role in the temporal dynamics of Plasmodium. The malaria–climate relationship was complex and transient, varying in strength with the region and species. By identifying temporal cycles of malaria we have made a first step in predicting high-risk years in Venezuela. Our findings emphasize the importance of analyzing high-resolution spatial–temporal data to better understand malaria transmission dynamics.

A volcanically triggered regime shift in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean as a possible origin of the Little Ice Age

Abstract. Among the climatological events of the last millennium, the Northern Hemisphere Medieval Climate Anomaly succeeded by the Little Ice Age are of exceptional importance. The origin of these regional climate anomalies remains a subject of debate and besides external influences like solar and volcanic activity, internal dynamics of the climate system might have also played a dominant role. Here, we present transient last millennium simulations of the fully coupled model of intermediate complexity Climber 3α forced with stochastically reconstructed wind-stress fields. Our results indicate that short-lived volcanic eruptions might have triggered a cascade of sea ice–ocean feedbacks in the North Atlantic, ultimately leading to a persistent regime shift in the ocean circulation. We find that an increase in the Nordic Sea sea-ice extent on decadal timescales as a consequence of major volcanic eruptions in our model leads to a spin-up of the subpolar gyre and a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, eventually causing a persistent, basin-wide cooling. These results highlight the importance of regional climate feedbacks such as a regime shift in the subpolar gyre circulation for understanding the dynamics of past and future climate.