Climate variability and change: a perspective from the oceania region

Tom Beer

doi:10.1186/2196-4092-1-5

Abstract

This brief review identifies seven key science questions in relation to climate variability and change and examines recent research within the Australian and Pacific context: 1. How do the key processes controlling climate variability and predictability operate? 2. What are the nature and causes of regional climate anomalies, past variations in regional climate and extreme weather events and how will they change in the future? 3. How can we provide improved seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions? 4. What are the best projection methods? 5. What are the sea-level changes now and in the future; and how will these impact the coasts? 6. How to have significant benefits on climate service delivery and environmental management? 7. What are the best methods for assessing climate change risks, vulnerability and adaptation options?

Highlights

Climate Variability and Change (CVC) refers both to an administrative entity, and to an area of science
More recent analysis indicates that CMIP5 models tend to show maximum trends that are about half the observed. These trends are consistent with the sub-tropical ridge (STR) movement, are statistically highly significant, and the results indicate that they are likely to continue into the 21st century
The science that is needed to deduce climate risk involves determining methods of seamless prediction, whereby weather prediction models, seasonal prediction models, decadal prediction models and climate models can all be used to determine future risk. Achieving this will require an increased understanding of climate processes, and will require methods to reduce uncertainty in climate science and climate models. This uncertainty is manifested in examination of climate change effects on extreme events which are important because they impact on life and property, but because the changes to the natural environment – such as beach erosion – occur as a result of high waves during extreme events

Summary

Introduction

Climate Variability and Change (CVC) refers both to an administrative entity, and to an area of science. Until 30 June 2013 its 110 staff comprised one of the five research programs of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, which is a joint partnership between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, which is the Australian Government Scientific Research Agency. Review The key driver for Australian scientific work on climate variability and climate change is the National Framework for Climate Change Science [1]. This defines national climate change science priorities for the coming decade. These priorities have been synthesised into seven key science questions: 1. What are the nature and causes of regional climate anomalies, past variations in regional climate and extreme weather events and how will they change in the future?

How can we provide improved seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions?

Findings

Conclusions