Regional Temperature Changes Research Articles

Simulated climate adaptation in storm-water systems: Evaluating the efficiency of within-system flexibility

Changes in regional temperature and precipitation patterns resulting from global climate change may adversely affect the performance of long-lived infrastructure. Adaptation may be necessary to ensure that infrastructure offers consistent service and remains cost effective. But long service times and deep uncertainty associated with future climate projections make adaptation decisions especially challenging for managers. Incorporating flexibility into systems can increase their effectiveness across different climate futures but can also add significant costs. In this paper we review existing work on flexibility in climate change adaptation of infrastructure, such as robust decision-making and dynamic adaptive pathways, apply a basic typology of flexibility, and test alternative strategies for flexibility in distributed infrastructure systems comprised of multiple emplacements of a common, long-lived element: roadway culverts. Rather than treating a system of dispersed infrastructure elements as monolithic, we simulate “options flexibility” in which inherent differences in individual elements is incorporated into adaptation decisions. We use a virtual testbed of highway drainage crossing structures to examine the performance under different climate scenarios of policies that allow for multiple adaptation strategies with varying timing based on individual emplacement characteristics. Results indicate that a strategy with options flexibility informed by crossing characteristics offers a more efficient method of adaptation than do monolithic policies. In some cases this results in more cost-effective adaptation for agencies building long-lived, climate-sensitive infrastructure, even where detailed system data and analytical capacity is limited.

Palynology of the Last Interglacial Complex at Lake Ohrid: palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic inferences

In this article, we present new, high-resolution, pollen results obtained from the DEEP site sequence recovered from Lake Ohrid (Albania/FYROM) for the Last Interglacial Complex (LIC), corresponding to Marine Isotope Stage 5 (MIS 5) of the marine isotope stratigraphy. LIC covers the period between 130 and 70 ka and includes the Eemian (Last Interglacial, LI) and the succession of stadial and interstadial phases of the Early Last Glacial.During the LIC, the pollen record shows an alternation of periods characterized by forest and open vegetation, clearly resembling the well-known vegetational succession of other European records. Our results reveal three key phases for the LI: a first period (128-125 ka) with a rapid increase in temperature and precipitation, a central phase (125–118.5 ka) characterized by a slight cooling, and a late phase (118.5–112 ka), with a decline both in temperatures and precipitation. Besides the LI, we identify four more forested periods dominated by mesophilous trees and intercalated by colder and drier steppe phases, during which, however, most arboreal taxa never disappear.During the Early Last Glacial we also identify several abrupt events that can be correlated to the succession of cold events recorded in the Greenland ice core records, associated to a weakening of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.The new high-resolution record indicates that Lake Ohrid is an important site to understand the response of vegetation to fluctuations in regional moisture availability and temperature changes, and thus provides new evidence for the connection between the Mediterranean Region and Northern Hemisphere climate oscillations.

Geographical patterns of the summer thermal regime of soils in Transbaikalia

Long-term temperature data on a soil layer 3.2 m in thickness have been used in the differentiation of a topographically highly complicated permafrost on the territory of Transbaikalia. It was found that the geographical ranges are most clearly identified from mean annual temperature values. The schematic map displays the areas with the temperatures –4 to–1°C,–1 to 1°C and 1 to 4°C which are in good agreement with the permafrost distribution pattern (continuous and discontinuous permafrost, and permafrost islands). A classification of the thermal conditions of soils is carried out according to the highest mean monthly temperature at all depths. We identified four types which are characterized by the qualitative assessment as warm, moderately warm, cold and very cold. A relevant cartographic model shows the distribution of the thermal regime of soils for a warm season. The dot method was used to provide a clear display of available information on soil temperature, and it was possible to show the existence of small areas of the types of thermal regime and their fragmentation. Current changes in soil temperature were determined for August, which are in good agreement with regional changes in ground air temperature. In either case, we observed positive linear trends. Assessments of thermal resources of the soil layer and their geographical patterns belonging to the widespread depression-valley and valley natural systems as well as to the relatively planate surfaces of Transbaikalia can be used for scientific and practical purposes.

Regional temperature change potentials for short-lived climate forcers based on radiative forcing from multiple models

Abstract. We calculate the absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP) of various short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) based on detailed radiative forcing (RF) calculations from four different models. The temperature response has been estimated for four latitude bands (90–28° S, 28° S–28° N, 28–60° N, and 60–90° N). The regional pattern in climate response not only depends on the relationship between RF and surface temperature, but also on where and when emissions occurred and atmospheric transport, chemistry, interaction with clouds, and deposition. We present four emissions cases covering Europe, East Asia, the global shipping sector, and the entire globe. Our study is the first to estimate ARTP values for emissions during Northern Hemisphere summer (May–October) and winter season (November–April). The species studied are aerosols and aerosol precursors (black carbon, organic carbon, SO2, NH3), ozone precursors (NOx, CO, volatile organic compound), and methane (CH4). For the response to BC in the Arctic, we take into account the vertical structure of the RF in the atmosphere, and an enhanced climate efficacy for BC deposition on snow. Of all SLCFs, BC is the most sensitive to where and when the emissions occur, as well as giving the largest difference in response between the latitude bands. The temperature response in the Arctic per unit BC emission is almost four times larger and more than two times larger than the global average for Northern Hemisphere winter emissions for Europe and East Asia, respectively. The latitudinal breakdown likely gives a better estimate of the global temperature response as it accounts for varying efficacies with latitude. An annual pulse of non-methane SLCF emissions globally (representative of 2008) lead to a global cooling. In contrast, winter emissions in Europe and East Asia give a net warming in the Arctic due to significant warming from BC deposition on snow.

Amplified summer warming in Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia after the mid-1990s

Regional temperature changes are a crucial factor in affecting agriculture, ecosystems and societies, which depend greatly on local temperatures. We identify a nonuniform warming pattern in summer around the mid-1990s over the Eurasian continent, with a predominant amplified warming over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia but much weaker warming over Central Asia. It is found that the nonuniform warming concurs with both the phase shift of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the decadal change in the Silk Road Pattern (SRP), which is an upper-tropospheric teleconnection pattern over the Eurasian continent during summer. We suggest that the AMO may modulate the decadal change in SRP and then induce the zonal asymmetry in temperature changes. Our results have important implications for decadal prediction of regional warming pattern in Eurasia based on the predictable AMO.

Temperature and precipitation projection at 1.5 and 2°C increase in global mean temperature

Based on climate model outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigated the global temperature and precipitation changes when global mean temperature rises by 1.5 and 2°C relative to the pre- industrial period (1861–1900). Multi-model ensemble mean (MME) shows that for the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, global mean near-surface temperature (GMST) may reach 1.5°C warming relative to the pre- industrial level (1861–1900) around the year 2036, 2028, 2033 and 2025, respectively; and reach 2°C warming in 2049 (RCP4.5), 2056 (RCP6.0) and 2039 (RCP8.5). For RCP2.6 scenario, the 2°C warming could not be seen in the multi-model ensemble mean before 2100, but can be reached in different years in single model simulations including GFDL-CM3, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM. The timing when the GMST reaches a specific warming threshold is primarily related to radiative forcing and CO2-equivalent concentrations, which show similar value when the GMST rises by the same value. Projections under all RCPs from 25 CMIP5 models show that only 6 models under RCP2.6 scenario can project a warming lower than 1.5°C relative to the pre-industrial era before 2100, while the temperature increase under other three scenarios will be more than 1.5°C. It is therefore necessary to develop a set of lower emission scenarios to limit the global warming below 1.5°C. The investigations on inter-model differences show that the model with large transient climate response (TCR), also known as warm models, may reach the 1.5 and 2°C temperature increase earlier than those with low TCR (cold models), though other factors can also affect the model to reach 1.5 or 2°C temperature increase. For the future changes of temperature and precipitation at global scale, the MME results show little distinction among different scenarios when GMST rises by the same value, indicating that the global and regional response characteristics of temperature and precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios definition (defined by the radiative forcing by 2100). Therefore, it is possible to investigate the changes in temperature increase 0.5 under RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that regional responses are almost the same when GMST rises by each additional 0.5°C, indicating that the temperature and precipitation will essentially change linearly. These changes are characterized by more temperature increase in higher latitudes than in low latitudes, more temperature rise in land than in ocean, and increased precipitation in wet areas and decreased precipitation in dry areas, as was commonly detected in multiple studies. This suggests that the global warming impacts could be evaluated based on the multi-model ensemble projections under any RCP scenario with as much as a collection of models. This study also shows that in China, the regional mean temperature and precipitation changes are larger than the global mean when the GMST rises by 1.5 and 2°C. The temperature may increase across all China, with the warming increases from southeast to northwest. The precipitation will increase in most areas but it may decrease in the eastern part south of 30°N, based on the MME results.

Observational characteristics of cloud radiative effects over three arid regions in the Northern Hemisphere

Cloud–radiation processes play an important role in regional energy budgets and surface temperature changes over arid regions. Cloud radiative effects (CREs) are used to quantitatively measure the aforementioned climatic role. This study investigates the characteristics of CREs and their temporal variations over three arid regions in central Asia (CA), East Asia (EA), and North America (NA), based on recent satellite datasets. Our results show that the annual mean shortwave (SW) and net CREs (SWCRE and NCRE) over the three arid regions are weaker than those in the same latitudinal zone of the Northern Hemisphere. In most cold months (November–March), the longwave (LW) CRE is stronger than the SWCRE over the three arid regions, leading to a positive NCRE and radiative warming in the regional atmosphere–land surface system. The cold-season mean NCRE at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) averaged over EA is 4.1 W m–2, with a positive NCRE from November to March, and the intensity and duration of the positive NCRE is larger than that over CA and NA. The CREs over the arid regions of EA exhibit remarkable annual cycles due to the influence of the monsoon in the south. The TOA LWCRE over arid regions is closely related to the high-cloud fraction, and the SWCRE relates well to the total cloud fraction. In addition, the relationship between the SWCRE and the low-cloud fraction is good over NA because of the considerable occurrence of low cloud. Further results show that the interannual variation of TOA CREs is small over the arid regions of CA and EA, but their surface LWCREs show certain decreasing trends that correspond well to their decreasing total cloud fraction. It is suggested that combined studies of more observational cloud properties and meteorological elements are needed for in-depth understanding of cloud–radiation processes over arid regions of the Northern Hemisphere.

Emission metrics for quantifying regional climate impacts of aviation

Abstract. This study examines the impacts of emissions from aviation in six source regions on global and regional temperatures. We consider the NOx-induced impacts on ozone and methane, aerosols and contrail-cirrus formation and calculate the global and regional emission metrics global warming potential (GWP), global temperature change potential (GTP) and absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP). The GWPs and GTPs vary by a factor of 2–4 between source regions. We find the highest aviation aerosol metric values for South Asian emissions, while contrail-cirrus metrics are higher for Europe and North America, where contrail formation is prevalent, and South America plus Africa, where the optical depth is large once contrails form. The ARTP illustrate important differences in the latitudinal patterns of radiative forcing (RF) and temperature response: the temperature response in a given latitude band can be considerably stronger than suggested by the RF in that band, also emphasizing the importance of large-scale circulation impacts. To place our metrics in context, we quantify temperature change in four broad latitude bands following 1 year of emissions from present-day aviation, including CO2. Aviation over North America and Europe causes the largest net warming impact in all latitude bands, reflecting the higher air traffic activity in these regions. Contrail cirrus gives the largest warming contribution in the short term, but remain important at about 15 % of the CO2 impact in several regions even after 100 years. Our results also illustrate both the short- and long-term impacts of CO2: while CO2 becomes dominant on longer timescales, it also gives a notable warming contribution already 20 years after the emission. Our emission metrics can be further used to estimate regional temperature change under alternative aviation emission scenarios. A first evaluation of the ARTP in the context of aviation suggests that further work to account for vertical sensitivities in the relationship between RF and temperature response would be valuable for further use of the concept.

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

A new integrated and homogenized global monthly land surface air temperature dataset for the period since 1900

A new dataset of integrated and homogenized monthly surface air temperature over global land for the period since 1900 [China Meteorological Administration global Land Surface Air Temperature (CMA-LSAT)] is developed. In total, 14 sources have been collected and integrated into the newly developed dataset, including three global (CRUTEM4, GHCN, and BEST), three regional and eight national sources. Duplicate stations are identified, and those with the higher priority are chosen or spliced. Then, a consistency test and a climate outlier test are conducted to ensure that each station series is quality controlled. Next, two steps are adopted to assure the homogeneity of the station series: (1) homogenized station series in existing national datasets (by National Meteorological Services) are directly integrated into the dataset without any changes (50% of all stations), and (2) the inhomogeneities are detected and adjusted for in the remaining data series using a penalized maximal t test (50% of all stations). Based on the dataset, we re-assess the temperature changes in global and regional areas compared with GHCN-V3 and CRUTEM4, as well as the temperature changes during the three periods of 1900–2014, 1979–2014 and 1998–2014. The best estimates of warming trends and there 95% confidence ranges for 1900–2014 are approximately 0.102 ± 0.006 °C/decade for the whole year, and 0.104 ± 0.009, 0.112 ± 0.007, 0.090 ± 0.006, and 0.092 ± 0.007 °C/decade for the DJF (December, January, February), MAM, JJA, and SON seasons, respectively. MAM saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900–2014 and 1979–2014. For an even shorter and more recent period (1998–2014), MAM, JJA and SON show similar warming trends, while DJF shows opposite trends. The results show that the ability of CMA-LAST for describing the global temperature changes is similar with other existing products, while there are some differences when describing regional temperature changes.

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability.

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

Widespread Biological Response to Rapid Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

Recent climate change on the Antarctic Peninsula is well documented [1-5], with warming, alongside increases in precipitation, wind strength, and melt season length [1, 6, 7], driving environmental change [8, 9]. However, meteorological records mostly began in the 1950s, and paleoenvironmental datasets that provide a longer-term context to recent climate change are limited in number and often from single sites [7] and/or discontinuous in time [10, 11]. Here we use moss bank cores from a 600-km transect from Green Island (65.3°S) to Elephant Island (61.1°S) as paleoclimate archives sensitive to regional temperature change, moderated by water availability and surface microclimate [12, 13]. Mosses grow slowly, but cold temperatures minimize decomposition, facilitating multi-proxy analysis of preserved peat [14]. Carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) in cellulose indicates the favorability of conditions for photosynthesis [15]. Testate amoebae are representative heterotrophs in peatlands [16-18], so their populations are an indicator of microbial productivity [14]. Moss growth and mass accumulation rates represent the balance between growth and decomposition [19]. Analyzing these proxies in five cores at three sites over 150 years reveals increased biological activity over the past ca. 50 years, in response to climate change. We identified significant changepoints in all sites and proxies, suggesting fundamental and widespread changes in the terrestrial biosphere. The regional sensitivity of moss growth to past temperature rises suggests that terrestrial ecosystems will alter rapidly under future warming, leading to major changes in the biology and landscape of this iconic region-an Antarctic greening to parallel well-established observations in the Arctic [20].

The relative influence of temperature and size‐structure on fish distribution shifts: A case‐study on Walleye pollock in the Bering Sea

AbstractResearch has estimated associations between water temperature and the spatial distribution of marine fishes based upon correlations between temperature and the centroid of fish distribution (centre of gravity, COG). Analysts have then projected future water temperatures to forecast shifts in COG, but often neglected to demonstrate that temperature explains a substantial portion of historical distribution shifts. We argue that estimating the proportion of observed distributional shifts that can be attributed to temperature vs. other factors is a critical first step in forecasting future changes. We illustrate this approach using Gadus chalcogrammus (Walleye pollock) in the Eastern Bering Sea, and use a vector‐autoregressive spatiotemporal model to attribute variation in COG from 1982 to 2015 to three factors: local or regional changes in surface and bottom temperature (“temperature effects”), fluctuations in size‐structure that cause COG to be skewed towards juvenile or adult habitats (“size‐structured effects”) or otherwise unexplained spatiotemporal variation in distribution (“unexplained effects”). We find that the majority of variation in COG (including the north‐west trend since 1982) is largely unexplained by temperature or size‐structured effects. Temperature alone generates a small portion of primarily north–south variation in COG, while size‐structured effects generate a small portion of east–west variation. We therefore conclude that projections of future distribution based on temperature alone are likely to miss a substantial portion of both the interannual variation and interdecadal trends in COG for this species. More generally, we suggest that decomposing variation in COG into multiple causal factors is a vital first step for projecting likely impacts of temperature change.

Atmospheric impacts of the strongest known solar particle storm of 775 AD

Sporadic solar energetic particle (SEP) events affect the Earth’s atmosphere and environment, in particular leading to depletion of the protective ozone layer in the Earth’s atmosphere, and pose potential technological and even life hazards. The greatest SEP storm known for the last 11 millennia (the Holocene) occurred in 774–775 AD, serving as a likely worst-case scenario being 40–50 times stronger than any directly observed one. Here we present a systematic analysis of the impact such an extreme event can have on the Earth’s atmosphere. Using state-of-the-art cosmic ray cascade and chemistry-climate models, we successfully reproduce the observed variability of cosmogenic isotope 10Be, around 775 AD, in four ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, thereby validating the models in the assessment of this event. We add to prior conclusions that any nitrate deposition signal from SEP events remains too weak to be detected in ice cores by showing that, even for such an extreme solar storm and sub-annual data resolution, the nitrate deposition signal is indistinguishable from the seasonal cycle. We show that such a severe event is able to perturb the polar stratosphere for at least one year, leading to regional changes in the surface temperature during northern hemisphere winters.

Reconstructing 800\xa0years of summer temperatures in Scotland from tree rings

This study presents a summer temperature reconstruction using Scots pine tree-ring chronologies for Scotland allowing the placement of current regional temperature changes in a longer-term context. ‘Living-tree’ chronologies were extended using ‘subfossil’ samples extracted from nearshore lake sediments resulting in a composite chronology >800 years in length. The North Cairngorms (NCAIRN) reconstruction was developed from a set of composite blue intensity high-pass and ring-width low-pass filtered chronologies with a range of detrending and disturbance correction procedures. Calibration against July–August mean temperature explains 56.4% of the instrumental data variance over 1866–2009 and is well verified. Spatial correlations reveal strong coherence with temperatures over the British Isles, parts of western Europe, southern Scandinavia and northern parts of the Iberian Peninsula. NCAIRN suggests that the recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s, although trends before the mid-sixteenth century should be interpreted with some caution due to greater uncertainty. Prominent cold periods were identified from the sixteenth century until the early 1800s—agreeing with the so-called Little Ice Age observed in other tree-ring reconstructions from Europe—with the 1690s identified as the coldest decade in the record. The reconstruction shows a significant cooling response 1 year following volcanic eruptions although this result is sensitive to the datasets used to identify such events. In fact, the extreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.

Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is negligible throughout the twenty-first century compared to uncertainties associated with internal variability and model diversity.

Climatic microrefugia under anthropogenic climate change: implications for species redistribution

The role of modern climatic microrefugia is a neglected aspect in the study of biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Current projections of species redistribution at continental extent are based on climatic grids of coarse (≥ 1 km) resolutions that fail to capture spatiotemporal dynamics associated with climatic microrefugia. Here, we review recent methods to model the climatic component of potential microrefugia and highlight research gaps in accounting for the buffering capacity due to biophysical processes operating at very fine (< 1 m) resolutions (e.g. canopy cover) and the associated microclimatic stability over time (i.e. decoupling). To overcome this challenge, we propose a spatially hierarchical downscaling framework combining a free‐air temperature grid at 1 km resolution, a digital elevation model at 25 m resolution and small‐footprint light detection‐and‐ranging (LiDAR) data at 50 cm resolution with knowledge from the literature to mechanistically model sub‐canopy temperatures and account for microclimatic decoupling. We applied this framework on a virtual sub‐canopy species and simulated the impact of a warming scenario on its potential distribution. Modelling sub‐canopy temperatures at 50 cm resolution and accounting for microclimatic stability over time enlarges the range of temperature conditions towards the cold end of the gradient, mitigates regional temperature changes and decreases extirpation risks. Incorporating these spatiotemporal dynamics into species redistribution models, being correlative, mechanistic or hybrid, will increase the probability of local persistence, which has important consequences in the understanding of the capacity of species to adapt. We finally provide a synthesis on additional ways that the field could move towards effectively considering potential climatic microrefugia for species redistribution.

Shaping the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient: New Perspectives from a Synthesis of Paleobiology and Biogeography.

An impediment to understanding the origin and dynamics of the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG)-the most pervasive large-scale biotic pattern on Earth-has been the tendency to focus narrowly on a single causal factor when a more synthetic, integrative approach is needed. Using marine bivalves as a model system and drawing on other systems where possible, we review paleobiologic and biogeographic support for two supposedly opposing views, that the LDG is shaped primarily by (a) local environmental factors that determine the number of species and higher taxa at a given latitude (in situ hypotheses) or (b) the entry of lineages arising elsewhere into a focal region (spatial dynamics hypotheses). Support for in situ hypotheses includes the fit of present-day diversity trends in many clades to such environmental factors as temperature and the correlation of extinction intensities in Pliocene bivalve faunas with net regional temperature changes. Support for spatial dynamics hypotheses includes the age-frequency distribution of bivalve genera across latitudes, which is consistent with an out-of-the-tropics dynamic, as are the higher species diversities in temperate southeastern Australia and southeastern Japan than in the tropical Caribbean. Thus, both in situ and spatial dynamics processes must shape the bivalve LDG and are likely to operate in other groups as well. The relative strengths of the two processes may differ among groups showing similar LDGs, but dissecting their effects will require improved methods of integrating fossil data with molecular phylogenies. We highlight several potential research directions and argue that many of the most dramatic biotic patterns, past and present, are likely to have been generated by diverse, mutually reinforcing drivers.

Warming trends of perialpine lakes from homogenised time series of historical satellite and in-situ data

The availability of more than thirty years of historical satellite data is a valuable source which could be used as an alternative to the sparse in-situ data. We developed a new homogenised time series of daily day time Lake Surface Water Temperature (LSWT) over the last thirty years (1986–2015) at a spatial resolution of 1km from thirteen polar orbiting satellites. The new homogenisation procedure implemented in this study corrects for the different acquisition times of the satellites standardizing the derived LSWT to 12:00 UTC. In this study, we developed new time series of LSWT for five large lakes in Italy and evaluated the product with in-situ data from the respective lakes. Furthermore, we estimated the long-term annual and summer trends, the temporal coherence of mean LSWT between the lakes, and studied the intra-annual variations and long-term trends from the newly developed LSWT time series. We found a regional warming trend at a rate of 0.017°Cyr−1 annually and 0.032°Cyr−1 during summer. Mean annual and summer LSWT temporal patterns in these lakes were found to be highly coherent. Amidst the reported rapid warming of lakes globally, it is important to understand the long-term variations of surface temperature at a regional scale. This study contributes a new method to derive long-term accurate LSWT for lakes with sparse in-situ data thereby facilitating understanding of regional level changes in lake's surface temperature.

Impact of Regional Atmospheric Cloud Radiative Changes on Shifts of the Extratropical Jet Stream in Response to Global Warming

AbstractClimate models robustly project that global warming will lead to a poleward shift of the annual-mean zonal-mean extratropical jet streams. The magnitude of such shifts remains uncertain, however, and recent work has indicated a potentially important role of cloud radiative interactions. The model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is captured in aquaplanet simulations with prescribed SSTs, because of which the latter setup is adapted here to study the impact of regional atmospheric cloud radiative changes on the jet position. Simulations with two CMIP5 models and prescribed regional cloud changes show that the rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. The 10-model CMIP5 aquaplanet ensemble of global warming exhibits correlations between jet shifts, regional temperature changes, and regional cloud changes that are consistent with the prescribed cloud simulations. This provides evidence that the atmospheric radiative forcing from tropical and midlatitude high-level cloud changes contributes to model uncertainty in future jet shifts, in addition to the surface radiative forcing from extratropical cloud changes highlighted by previous studies.