Regional Budget Research Articles

Initial study of the Palu-Parigi By-pass road policy in Central Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

This research aims to do the assessing the feasibility of the Public-Private Partnership project in investing in the construction of the Palu-Parigi By-pass road through a PPP financing scheme, thereby providing opportunities for the private sector to participate in the provision of special road infrastructure. In this context, experimental criteria for determining Value for Money (VFM) are applied using the PPP model, to evaluate projects. The main objective also emphasizes the provision of greater VFM Goods through private financing, through conventional methods that are economical, efficient and effective. Furthermore, financial performance measurement reports apply several methods, including Payback Period (PP), Net Present Value (NPV), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) which determine the feasibility and time required for returns on invested capital. The previous Economic Feasibility Study of the Palu-Parigi By-pass Road Construction project also showed an EIRR value of 20.1% in 2014, illustrating the economic development of this work. In connection with the limitations currently faced by the Regional Budget Agency of Central Sulawesi Province, the next PPP scheme is recommended for road construction by prioritizing infrastructure completion after the 28 September 2018 earthquake and the COVID-19 pandemic. The DBFMT (Design–Build–Finance–Maintenance–Transfer) model was also applied to the project, with GCA responsible for design, construction, financing, periodic maintenance and transfer at the end of the collaboration agreement.

The effect of local original revenue (PAD), special allocation fund (DAK) and general allocation fund (DAU) on capital expenditure in Bengkulu Province

Abstract: The implementation of regional autonomy will directly affect the regional financial financing, management and supervision system. Background: The regional financing system in the context of regional autonomy is one of the most important aspects. To realize this, regional governments have rights and obligations over regional finances in organizing their regional government. Therefore, the regional government creates a Regional Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBD) as an annual regional financial plan that is determined through Regional Regulations. APBD contains regional government revenues and expenditures in a certain period. This research aims to prove whether there is an influence of Regional Original Income, General Allocation Funds, and Special Allocation Funds on capital expenditure of district/city governments in Bengkulu Province. Method: This research uses samples from the financial reports of district/city governments throughout Bengkulu Province which have been audited by the BPK from 2019-2022. Finding: Theoretically, it is hoped that this research will be useful as material for building new concepts and can be useful as a reference for further research. A limitation in this research is the availability of data or reports needed to carry out this research. So, researchers look for data or reports on other websites which takes quite a long time. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate that the Regional Original Income and Special Allocation Fund variables have no effect on capital expenditure, and the General Allocation Fund variable has an effect on capital expenditure. Novelty/Originality of this study: This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the influence of Local Revenue, General Allocation Fund, and Special Allocation Fund on capital expenditure in districts/cities in Bengkulu Province from 2019-2022. The results of this study provide new insights into the dynamics of regional finance in the context of regional autonomy in Bengkulu Province, which can be used as a reference for optimizing regional budgets in the future.

Landslide life-loss risk quantification based on historical fatalities

Life-loss risk estimates inform decisions that have dramatic impacts on individuals and communities in landslide hazard zones. Literature provides methods for making these estimates through multiplication of site-specific parameters. However, there is no method in the literature for calibrating those estimates, and regional context is needed to make efficient, fair, and affordable decisions. Therefore, we developed methods to quantify risk to individuals and groups based on regional historical fatality and hazard zone population data. The methods can be used to evaluate the accuracy of large sets of site-specific risk estimates, to assign quantitative risk values to buildings and hazard zones at a regional scale, to develop a long-term regional budget for landslide risk management, or to inform selection of a risk tolerance threshold that can inform where limited resources are invested in landslide mitigation. An example of the methods is provided for a case study of residential landslide risk in British Columbia, Canada. It estimates that there are between a few hundred and a few thousand people living with individual risk exceeding 100 micromorts (1 in 10,000) per year, and between 70 and 370 landslide hazard zones with annual probable life loss greater than 1E-3 (1 death in 1,000 years), based on a historical fatality rate of 0.4 to 1.4 deaths per year across the entire province.

Подходы к выбору индикаторов региональной бюджетной безопасности (на примере арктических регионов России)

The article deals with the approach to selection of regional budget security indicators in order to develop a system of parameters to assess the regional budget security. The approach is based on the principle of identifying the interests of economic agents. The satisfaction level of regional authorities, economic entities, and population is considered as a budget security indicator. The express analysis based on the materials from the Arctic regions of Russia indicated an imbalance of interests of economic agents, which is further confirmed by the decline in regional and population welfare due to reduction in regional product volume redistributed through budgets and by the decrease in businesses financial results in context of the changing world economy conditions. Balance of economic interests will be achieved by the increase in budget revenues and per capita incomes.

Factors that affect the accuracy of submitting SKPK Treasurer Accountability Reports to the Aceh Tamiang Regency Government

The application of accounting standards in the country in the management of regional finance has an impact on regional budget implementation responsibility reports (APBD). This type of research is quantitative descriptive and describes the relationship between independent and dependent variables. Meanwhile, human resource factors, treasurer facilities, and infrastructure, treasurer's term of office, regulations, the intensity of management training, and accountability of SKPD treasurers, as well as unclear roles in the Aceh Tamiang district government have a big influence—the impact of the timeliness of submitting regional government accountability reports. In several cases, the variable intensity of administrative training and responsibilities of SKPD accountants (X5), as well as the ambiguity of the role (X6) produced a positive impact on the timeliness of government reporting in the regions.

Accountability of Regional Financial Management on the Suitability of Planning and Budgeting in Pamekasan Regency

In public sector agencies, the achievement of regional financial management accountability is a demand for the implementation of good governance, regional financial management is one of the main lines in the implementation of regional government. So that many problems related to regional financial governance in government still often occur, one of which is that there are still discrepancies between local government planning and budgeting. This study aims to determine and analyze the accountability of regional financial management for the suitability of planning and budgeting in Pamekasan Regency based on Permendagri No. 19 of 2020. The data collection technique was to conduct interviews with structural officials of the R&D section of Bapperida Pamekasan Regency. As well as evaluating regional planning and budgeting documents according to the results of measuring the Regional Financial Management Index (IPKD). Based on the results of the study, it can be seen that there is an influence on dimension one related to the suitability of planning and budgeting documents on the financial management performance of the Pamekasan Regency Government so that the effect on financial management performance is less measurable, and can plan more carefully in the future. So that there is a mismatch in the RPJMD-RKPD Program indicator, the KUAPPAS - APBD program indicator, the RKPD - KUAPPAS ceiling indicator, and the KUA-PPAS and APBD Program ceiling indicators. In the analysis of the RKPD-KUAPPAS program suitability indicators.

IMPLEMENTASI KEBIJAKAN STANDAR PELAYANAN MINIMAL (SPM) PADA PELAYANAN KESEHATAN DIABETES MELLITUS (DM) DI PUSKESMAS BIROBULI

. This research aims to describe and explain the implementation of the SPM policy in Diabetes Mellitus (DM) health services at the Birobuli Community Health Center. This research method is a qualitative descriptive research method and data collection techniques are by means of observation, interviews and documentation. This research was conducted at the Birobuli Community Health Center using a purposive selection and selection technique for informants as many as 6 (six) people. This research uses aspects used by Donald Van Meter and Carl Van Horn, namely: 1. Policy Standards and Targets 2. Resources 3. Characteristics of Implementing Organizations 4. Communication between Implementing Organizations 5. Attitudes of Implementers 6. Social, Economic and Environmental Environments Political. Based on the results of research and discussion, standard variables and SPM policy targets for DM sufferers at the Bureaubuli Community Health Center still reached 80.13%, this figure has not yet reached the target set in Minister of Health Regulation No. 4 of 2019 because it is still hampered by the stages of data collection activities and early detection of DM sufferers. . Resource variables that do not fully support the implementation of the Diabetes Mellitus Health SPM at the Bureaubuli Community Health Center are also a factor in achieving the Health SPM target that has not reached 100%, such as human, financial and infrastructure resources that are still insufficient. The variable characteristics of implementing agents are related to the bureaucratic structure, norms and relationship patterns that are formed between policy implementers and have run well and in accordance with SOPs. Communication variables between implementers in implementing SPM policies for diabetes mellitus sufferers do not experience obstacles. The communication variable between implementers at the community health center is carried out directly because they are still in the same work area, while communication with implementers in the community is also carried out well and is supported by the use of online communication. The attitude/tendency variable of policy implementers such as the Health Service and the Bureaubuli Community Health Center gave a good response with the existence of a clear policy governing how to implement Diabetes Mellitus services in accordance with SPM Health standards. Economic, social and political environmental variables still have obstacles regarding all funding for SPM which must be accommodated with SPM. This means that in planning the Palu City regional budget, the SPM must be taken into account first in the budget planning. Apart from that, the economic capacity of the people of Palu City is also a supporting factor in the success of the Diabetes Mellitus Health SPM. Apart from that, political support is still lacking in perceived benefits in supporting DM health services that are in accordance with the SPM. The general conclusion is that the implementation of the Minimum Service Standards (SPM) policy in the Diabetes Mellitus (DM) Health Service at the Birobuli Health Center has not gone well.

Strategy for Increasing the Absorption of Revenue Sharing Fund of Reforestation Fund in East Kalimantan Province Government

Revenue sharing fund of reforestation fund (DBH DR) is one source of regional revenue from natural resources. However, since distributed to provinces in 2017, they have problems every years in absorbing this funds. In 2017-2019, there is still remaining funds of 1.4 trillion from the 2.47 trillion has distributed to the provinces. This study aims to analyze the policies and implementation of DBH DR, as well as identify the factors that influence the absorption of the budget based on stakeholder perceptions. The survey was conducted with key stakeholders in East Kalimantan Province, Ministries and the community to find out their perceptions of program implementation and was analyzed using the NVivo 12 application. Based on research, technical regulations issued by the central government have not accommodated regional needs. The planning time for DBH DR is not in accordance with the regional planning and budgeting cycle, resulting in adjustments and delays in the activities implementation. The strategy is synchronization of DBH DR policies or regulations with regional planning and budgeting cycles, expanding the use of DBH DR according to regional needs, and capacity building for local government officials on technical regulations.

Pengaruh Pengetahuan Dewan Tentang Anggaran Terhadap Fungsi Pengawasan APBD Pada DPR Kabupaten Lebong

The Regional Budget is essentially a policy instrument used as a tool to improve public services and community welfare in the region. DPRD and local governments must make real and structured efforts to produce APBDs that can reflect the real needs of the community in accordance with the potential of each region, and can meet the demands of creating a regional budget that is oriented towards the interests of the community. This research is quantitative descriptive research, which is a study that serves to describe or provide an overview of the object under study through sample or population data with numbers using data that the author thinks is in accordance with the object of research and provides an overview of the object of research.Knowledge of the council on the budget has a positive and significant effect on the role of members of the Lebong Regency DPRD, Bengkulu in supervising regional finances. This is because based on the test results on respondents' answers, it shows the results that members of the Lebong Regency DPRD, Bengkulu have good or high knowledge about the budget. In the reliability test results show the results of reliability testing on variable X instruments with a Cronbach's Alpha value of 0.624. The results of the reliability test on variable Y instrument with a Cronbach's Alpha value of 0.627. This proves that the research instrument in the form of a questionnaire is reliable because Cronbach's Alpha is greater than 0.60. In the validity test results, it can be seen that the correlation between each indicator of variables X and Y shows significant results and shows that R count> R table (0.320). It can be concluded that all question items are declared valid.

Modelling and mapping carbon capture potential of farmed blue mussels in the Baltic Sea region

This study applies a regional Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model, enhanced to include biocalcification processes, to evaluate the carbon capture potential of farmed blue mussels (Mytilus edulis/trossulus) in the Baltic Sea. The research emphasises the long-term capture of carbon associated with shell formation, crucial for mitigating global warming effects. The model was built using a comprehensive pan-Baltic dataset that includes information on mussel growth, filtration and biodeposition rates, and nutrient content. The study also examined salinity, temperature, and chlorophyll a as key environmental factors influencing carbon capture in farmed mussels. Our findings revealed significant spatial and temporal variability in carbon dynamics under current and future environmental conditions. The tested future predictions are grounded in current scientific understanding and projections of climate change effects on the Baltic Sea. Notably, the outer Baltic Sea subbasins exhibited the highest carbon capture capacity with an average of 55 t (in the present scenario) and 65 t (under future environmental conditions) of carbon sequestrated per farm (0.25 ha) over a cultivation cycle – 17 months. Salinity was the main driver of predicted regional changes in carbon capture, while temperature and chlorophyll a had more pronounced local effects. This research advances our understanding of the role low trophic aquaculture plays in mitigating climate change. It highlights the importance of developing location-specific strategies for mussel farming that consider both local and regional environmental conditions. The results contribute to the wider discourse on sustainable aquaculture development and environmental conservation.

Infrastruktur Konektivitas, Peran Pemerintah, dan Perkembangan Sosial Ekonomi Regional: Bukti dari Kalimantan

The Island of Kalimantan, designated by the Indonesian government as the site for the new capital city, necessitates significant infrastructure improvements to support its economic development. This research evaluates the progress of the connectivity infrastructure in Kalimantan, reviews the role of the government in facilitating this development, and estimates the relationship between infrastructure and the community’s social and economic activities. The study applies descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, comparative studies, and interregional input-output methodology by utilizing various data sources including the central government budget, regional government budget, village potential data, Susenas, and Geographic Information System GIS) data. Our findings reveal increasing budgets from both central and local governments, yet limited improvements in road infrastructure. An increase in the availability of road infrastructure per km² is positively correlated with enhanced trading activities, the provision of shops, improved public transportation, and better access to education and health facilities. In addition, the establishment of airports and ports is linked to higher per capita income and increased service and manufacturing activities, as well as the growth of food stalls, shops, and banking services.

Responses of precipitation and water vapor budget on the Chinese Loess Plateau to global land cover change forcing

There have been notable changes in precipitation patterns on the Loess Plateau (LP) of China in recent decades, and numerous attribution studies have focused on sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation changes induced by aerosols and greenhouse gases emission. However, the influences of global land use and land cover change (LULCC) as an important forcing factor in the climate system on regional precipitation remains poorly understood. In this study, we quantified the impacts of LULCC on precipitation and the water vapor budget in the LP region, utilizing data from LULCC forcing experiments conducted by the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Although global LULCC forcing exerted a negative effect on long-term mean precipitation on the LP region from 1850 to 2014, the different response characteristics were detected during different time periods. The global LULCC caused a decrease of 14 mm in annual precipitation during the period of 1850–1960. Conversely, from 1961 to 2014, it led to an increase of 6.4 mm, which is largely attributed to the enhanced water vapor transport along the southern boundary and westerly belt of the LP region. Moreover, from the perspective of the net water vapor balance of the entire LP, although LULCC caused net water vapor export during both periods 1850–1960 and 1961–2014, the export during the latter period (0.20 × 104 kg s−1) was smaller than that during the former period (0.28 × 104 kg s−1), indicating that the global expansion of grassland and cropland, along with the continuous rise in the leaf area index from 1961 to 2014, contributed to retaining more water vapor within the LP, which in turn was more favorable for precipitation. These findings provide valuable insights into the reasons behind precipitation variations in the LP region, emphasizing that global vegetation restoration and greening play a significant role in improving precipitation in ecologically fragile areas.

Analysis of Regional Planning and Budgeting Consistency in North Central Timor Regency

The budget planning and implementation process in North Central Timor Regency (TTU) is faced with significant challenges due to the high level of inconsistency in the budgeting system at each stage. This research aims to explore the relationship between several variables in the North Central Timor Regency. First, an analysis is carried out on the influence of Human Resource capacity (X1) on Good Governance (Y1). Second, the influence of planning quality (X2) on Good Governance (Y1) was examined. Third, audit the impact of Human Resources capacity (X1) on Budgeting Consistency (Y2). Fourth, the impact of planning quality (X2) on Budgeting Consistency (Y2) is analyzed. Fifth, the influence of Human Resource capacity (X1) on Budgeting Consistency (Y2) which is mediated by the Good Governance variable (Y1) is explored. And sixth, we studied the influence of planning quality (X2) on Budgeting Consistency (Y2) with the mediation variable Good Governance (Y1). The research uses quantitative Path Analysis. Samples were taken using a purposive random sampling method, with the criteria being employees in the financial administration field at each regional organization. The research results show that in the first structural equation, HR capacity and planning quality have a direct effect on Good Governance. In the second structural equation, HR capacity, planning quality, and Good Governance influence Budgeting Consistency. However, HR capacity and planning quality cannot be mediated by Good Governance on Budgeting Consistency.

Сбалансированность интересов участников распределительных отношений в контексте обеспечения региональной бюджетной безопасности

This study aims to clarify the concept of budget resilience and substantiate an approach for selecting indicators of regional budget resilience. A content analysis of scientific sources in the field of budget resilience was conducted, and current approaches to defining the concept of budget resilience were classified. The author’s interpretation of the concept is presented, emphasizing the need to select indicators that assess regional budget resilience by considering the interests of public funding recipients. Within this framework, groups of recipients—regional authorities, economic entities, and the population—are identified, and their interests are determined. A system of indicators is proposed to ensure budget resilience in the region, reflecting the level of interest satisfaction among these groups. A comparative analysis of the balance of recipients’ interests based on the results of budget policy and the budget process in the Russian Arctic regions was carried out, and trends in their economic interactions under conditions of global instability were analyzed. The study found vulnerabilities in the budget resilience system, manifested in the infringement of recipients’ interests. Changes in financial market conditions and resource prices led to a decrease in financial results for companies and a reduction in regional output redistributed through budgets, resulting in welfare loss for the regions and their populations. To address the situation, it is necessary to intensify investment activities and business development in the regions and optimize the fiscal regulation system, which will ultimately contribute to the growth of budget and household incomes. Changes in these indicators should be monitored not only in national currency but also in dollar terms to assess the recipients’ financial well-being on an international scale. Future research will focus on selecting specific indicators and their threshold values for assessing budget resilience in the Russian Arctic regions.

Mechanisms behind high N2O emissions from livestock enclosures in Kenya revealed by dual-isotope and functional gene analyses

Livestock manure contributes to global warming due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). In the arid and semi-arid lands of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), extensive pastoral grazing systems are common, with cattle grazing in the savanna during the day and kept in enclosures (called bomas in Kenya) during the night. Manure is usually not removed from bomas but left to accumulate, leading to excessive local nitrogen loads, making these bomas an overlooked N2O emission hotspot in SSA that is currently not accounted for in national and regional GHG budgets. Here, we present the first in-situ isotope measurements of N2O fluxes from 37 cattle bomas along an age gradient ranging from 0 to 5 years after boma abandonment in Kenya along with functional gene analysis of soil and manure samples. The isotopic composition of the emitted N2O from bomas suggests that on average 91 ± 8% N2O was produced via bacterial denitrification and/or nitrifier denitrification, with little variation across boma age class. We also found high levels of N2O reduction to N2 across all sample sites (81 ± 9%), indicating high levels of N2O consumption. The abundances of denitrification-related genes (nirK and narG) were significantly higher than those of nitrification-related genes (amoA: AOA and AOB) in the cattle manure samples taken from the bomas, corroborating N2O emissions largely being attributed to denitrification. Significant abundance of the reduction-related gene (nosZ) also corroborated the high potential for microbial N2O reduction in bomas. Thus, by combining dual-isotope and functional gene analysis, we were able to identify source processes that govern N2O emissions from these systems. More generally, making use of the manure by spreading it in the vicinity of the bomas or on dedicated forage plots could provide a win-win by enhancing savanna productivity while simultaneously mitigating GHG emissions.

Tinjauan Yuridis Pemutusan Kontrak Secara Sepihak oleh Bupati Nagekeo Terhadap Tenaga Harian Lepas (THL) di Kabupaten Nagekeo

The purpose of this research is to analyze the juridical review of unilateral contract termination by the regent of Nagekeo against casual daily workers in Nagekeo district. The type of research is Empirical Legal research, the type of data used in this research is qualitative descriptive data. The results of this study suggest that: (1) The reason for the Nagekeo Regent to unilaterally terminate the contract against the casual workers in Nagekeo Regency is to reduce the regional expenditure budget so that these funds can be allocated to build facilities for the people of Nagekeo Regency (2) The impact that occurred for casual workers at the time of contract termination was to cause a situation of lack of security and public order due to demonstrations against the dismissal of casual workers, reduced income for families who are members of casual workers, causing the economic wheels in the market to be quiet for some time and not optimal administrative services and public services for the community.

Unravelling groundwater budget in the Poyang floodplain system under intensifying seasonal lake inundation

Study regionPoyang Lake Plain at the south bank of the middle Yangtze River Study focusThe dynamics of the groundwater budget, prominently driven by the surface water-groundwater interaction, present significant challenges for water resources and the eco-environment in extensive river-lake-floodplain systems. This research utilizes a groundwater flow model through the application of the MODFLOW-NWT numerical simulator, aiming to explore the patterns of exchange between surface water and groundwater due to intensive seasonal lake inundation, and its consequential impact on the annual and seasonal groundwater storage within the vast Poyang Lake floodplain, China. New hydrological insights for the regionSimulation results indicate that the change in groundwater storage during the dry year (i.e., –24.96×107 m3/yr in 2022) has decreased by 186.35×107 m3 compared to the wet year (i.e., 161.38×107 m3/yr in 2020). The contribution of surface water infiltration is approximately 45 % of the regional groundwater budget during wet seasons, and groundwater discharge into surface waterbodies accounts for over 60 % of the groundwater budget during dry seasons. The lake infiltration during wet years is approximately 3 times that in dry years, and the flow of infiltrated lake water into plain aquifers is approximately 5 times that in dry years. The present study contributes significant knowledge regarding the impact of intensifying seasonal inundation on variations in regional groundwater budget in large lake-aquifer system.

Pengaruh Pendapatan Asli Daerah, Dana Alokasi Khusus dan Dana Alokasi Umum Terhadap Pengalokasian Anggaran Belanja Modal Di Pulau Jawa

This research aims to analyze the influence of Regional Original Income (PAD), Special Allocation Funds (DAK), and General Allocation Funds (DAU) on the allocation of capital expenditure budgets on the island of Java. Capital expenditure is an important component in regional budgets that contributes directly to infrastructure development and improving public services. This study uses panel data from districts/cities on Java Island during the 2015-2020 period. The analytical method used is panel data regression with a fixed effects model (FEM) approach to identify the influence of independent variables on the dependent variable. The research results show that PAD has a positive and significant influence on capital expenditure. This indicates that regions with higher PAD tend to allocate more budget for capital expenditure. Meanwhile, DAK also has a positive and significant effect on capital expenditure, which shows that funds specifically allocated by the central government have succeeded in increasing investment in fixed assets in the regions. On the other hand, DAU was found to have a negative but insignificant effect on capital expenditure, indicating that general funds received from the central government did not directly encourage an increase in capital expenditure. This research provides important implications for regional policy makers in increasing PAD and utilizing transfer funds from the central government more effectively to accelerate the development of infrastructure and public services. Apart from that, the results of this research can also be a reference for further research in the field of regional finance and public budget management.

More Frequent Spaceborne Sampling of XCO2 Improves Detectability of Carbon Cycle Seasonal Transitions in Arctic‐Boreal Ecosystems

AbstractSurface, aircraft, and satellite measurements indicate pervasive early cold season (Augut–September) CO2 emissions across Arctic regions, consistent with increased ecosystem metabolism in plants and soils. A key remaining question is whether cold season sources will become large enough to permanently shift the Arctic into a net carbon source. Polar orbiting GHG satellites provide robust estimation of regional carbon budgets but lack sufficient spatial coverage and repeat frequency to track sink‐to‐source transitions in the early cold season. Mission concepts such as the Arctic Observing Mission (AOM) advocate for flying imaging spectrometers in highly elliptical orbits (HEO) over the Arctic to address sampling limitations. We perform retrieval and flux inversion simulation experiments using the AURORA mission concept, leveraging a Panchromatic imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (PanFTS) in HEO. Our simulations demonstrate the potential benefits of increased CO2 sampling for detecting emissions during the early cold season.

Impacts of vegetation greening and climate change on trend and interannual variability in vegetation productivity in the Wuyi Mountain region

ABSTRACT The Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) is an important component in regional and global carbon budgets. Southeastern China has experienced vegetation greening and climate change. Yet, it remains unclear how these changes have impacted GPP in this region. As one of six special national parks in China with complex topography, high biodiversity, and little destructive human activities to the ecosystems, the Wuyi Mountain region is selected to study these impacts. In this study, we use a hydroecological model (BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0) to simulate the spatial and temporal variations of GPP in the Wuyi Mountain region over 2001–2018. We quantitatively separate the effects of vegetation greening and climate change on the trend and interannual variation in GPP through sensitivity experiments. The results show a significant increasing trend in Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the region over 2001–2018 (0.06 m2 m−2 yr−1, p < 0.01). For climate, a significant warming trend (0.03°C yr−1, p = 0.06) and an insignificant wetting trend are found, companied with large interannual variations. The sensitivity experiments suggest that the combined effect of vegetation greening and climate change makes the annual GPP increase significantly over 2001–2018 (14.41 g C m−2 yr−2, p < 0.01). Vegetation greening plays a dominant role in the GPP increasing trend with a positive contribution of 15.76 g C m−2 yr−2. Climate change only makes an insignificant negative contribution (−0.43 g C m−2 yr−2), mainly due to warming. However, the climate modulates the interannual variation of GPP dominantly, with temperature being the most influential climate factor. Our results underscore the critical impact of vegetation greening on the GPP trend and the impact of climate on the GPP interannual variation in this subtropical forest region over east coast of China.