Regional Air Temperature Research Articles

Anopheles gambiae Re-Emergence and Resurgent Malaria Transmission in Eastern Rwanda, 2010-2020.

Rwanda achieved unprecedented malaria control gains from 2000 to 2010, but cases increased 20-fold between 2011 and 2017. Vector control challenges and environmental changes were noted as potential explanations, but no studies have investigated causes of the resurgence or identified which vector species drove transmission. We conducted a retrospective study in four sites in eastern Rwanda that conducted monthly entomological surveillance and outpatient malaria care. We compared sporozoite rates, human blood index (HBI), and relative abundance of the primary vectors, Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles arabiensis, from 2017 to 2020. We then modeled the effects of vector control interventions, insecticide resistance, and temperature changes on species composition and reported malaria incidence. Sporozoite rates were 28 times higher and HBI was four times higher in An. gambiae compared with An. arabiensis. Insecticide-treated bed nets, first distributed nationally in 2010, were associated with decreased An. gambiae relative abundance. However, increased pyrethroid resistance was associated with increased An. gambiae relative abundance and malaria incidence. Epidemic malaria peaks corresponded to periods of model-predicted An. gambiae re-emergence, and increased regional air temperatures during the period were further associated with increased malaria incidence. Indoor residual spraying (IRS), implemented with non-pyrethroid insecticides later in the period, was associated with 86% reductions in An. gambiae relative abundance and 75% reductions in malaria incidence. These findings suggest that increased pyrethroid resistance and the re-emergence of An. gambiae were closely linked to the malaria resurgence in eastern Rwanda. Non-pyrethroid IRS or other control measures that effectively target An. gambiae may help prevent future resurgences.

Accelerated glacier mass loss in the mid-latitude Eurasia from 2019 to 2022 revealed by ICESat-2

The dynamics of glaciers serve as one of the most important indicators of climate change. Whilst current research has primarily concentrated on long-term interannual glacier mass balance and its response to climate change, glaciers may respond more rapidly to climate change, highlighting the urgent need for intra-annual mass balance estimations. Investigating seasonal or short-term variations in glacier mass balance not only enhances our understanding of the interactions between glaciers and the climate system but also provides crucial data for water resource management and ecological protection. The ICESat-2 and NASADEM datasets were used to estimate the inter- and intra-annual glacier mass balance changes in the mid-latitude Eurasia from 2019 to 2022. Additionally, the response of glacier mass balance to regional air temperature and precipitation values was analysed using ERA5-Land data and multiple regression analysis, respectively. From 2019 to 2022, glacier mass loss in mid-latitude Eurasia reached −45.02 ± 34.21 Gt per year, contributing to a global sea-level rise of 0.12 ± 0.09 mm per year. The glacier melt rate in the study area from 2019 to 2022 was 2.33 times higher than that from 2000 to 2019. With the exception of the Western Kunlun region, which experienced a weak accumulation rate of 0.04 ± 0.35 m w.e. per year, all other areas experienced ablation states. Seasonal mass balance responds differently to temperature and precipitation variations across seasons: higher temperatures in different seasons lead to more negative mass balances, while increased winter and spring precipitation can slow down glacier melt. Air temperature dominates the glacier mass balance changes in the study area. The intense heat in 2022 raised average glacier temperatures by 1.04 °C compared to 2019–2021, resulting in a more negative mass balance and an increased ice loss of −0.34 ± 1.01 m w.e. per year (−35.07 ± 103.22 Gt per year). This analysis indicates that glacier mass balance is highly sensitive to climate change, even on a seasonal scale. Moreover, the high precision and spatiotemporal resolution ICESat-2 data can facilitate the investigation of large-scale glacier mass balance on short time scales.

Patterns and Trends in Northern Hemisphere River Ice Phenology from 2000 to 2021

River ice plays a crucial role in hydrology, ecosystems, and socio-economic systems in mid-to-high latitude regions. However, there is a notable gap in the analysis of patterns and trends in river ice phenologies and their influence factors at the river level. In this study, we developed a practical method to identify river ice phenologies by leveraging Landsat observations from 2000 to 2021, and established a comprehensive dataset encompassing 7970 river segments across the entire Northern Hemisphere. Our results revealed that the mean freeze-up date, break-up date, and ice duration for these river segments were October 24, May 4, and 192.1 days, respectively. Notably, 56% of the river segments exhibited a warming trend, with the average freeze-up date delayed by 2.7 days per decade, break-up date advanced by 2.5 days per decade, and ice duration shortened by 5.5 days per decade—nearly five times the documented decrease rate over the past 150 years. Furthermore, high-latitude polar regions and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau demonstrated the most pronounced decreases in ice duration, exceeding 7.0 days per decade on average. We observed a substantial relative contribution, reaching up to 70%, of surface air temperature (SAT) in middle and low latitude regions characterized by relatively high winter temperatures. However, as winter temperatures decrease, the relative influence of SAT diminishes, while the contributions of precipitation, solar radiation, and residuals increase. Our dataset provided essential baseline for further understanding the fundamental physical processes within river systems, offering crucial insights for river management, hydrological disaster risk control, climate change research, and ecosystem conservation efforts.

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Seasonal Sea Ice Extent of Hudson Strait, Canada, 1971–2018

The temporal and spatial variation in seasonal sea ice in Hudson Strait is examined using time series and spatial clustering analyses. For the period from 1971 to 2018, a time series of sea ice breakup and freeze-up dates and ice-free season length at twenty-four grid points were generated from sea ice charts derived from satellite and other data. These data were analyzed temporally and spatially. The temporal analyses indicated an unambiguous response to a warming climate with statistically significant earlier breakup dates, later freeze-up dates, and longer ice-free seasons, that were statistically linked to coincident regional surface air temperatures. The rate of change in freeze-up dates and ice-free season length was particularly strong in the early 2000s and less so in the 2010s. There was evidence that breakup date behaviour was not only coincident with regional temperatures but likely with temperature and ice conditions of the previous year. Later freeze-up dates were directly linked to earlier breakup dates using detrended time series. Spatial clustering analysis on the Hudson Strait gridded sea ice data revealed distinctive signatures for Ungava Bay, Frobisher Bay, and for grid points close to the shore and a clear linkage to the underlying circulation of Hudson Strait.

Trends and drivers of Arctic-boreal fire intensity between 2003 and 2022

Climate change has disproportional effects on Arctic-boreal ecosystems, as the increase of air temperatures in these northern regions is several times higher than the global average. Ongoing warming and drying have resulted in recent record-breaking fire years in Arctic-boreal ecosystems, resulting in substantial carbon emissions that might accelerate climate change. While recent trends in Arctic-boreal burned area have been well documented, it is still unclear how fire intensity has changed. Fire intensity relates to the energy release from combustion and to a large extent drives the impact of a fire on the vegetation and soils, the emission of various gasses and the combustion completeness of different fuels. Here, we used the active fire product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to examine trends in fire radiative power (FRP) over the entire Arctic-boreal region. We found a significant increase in annual median fire intensity between 2003 and 2022 in Eurasian boreal forests, for both daytime (increase of 0.392 MW/km2 per year, R2 = 0.56, p < 0.001) and nighttime fires (increase of 0.175 MW/km2 per year, R2 = 0.47, p < 0.001), while no general trend in FRP was observed in boreal North America. This increase in FRP in Eurasian boreal forests was strongly associated with simultaneous increases in air temperature, vapour pressure deficit, fire weather and fuel availability. We estimated that for Eurasia with each degree increase in air temperature, annual median daytime FRP increases with 1.58 MW/km2 in the tundra and 0.94 MW/km2 in the taiga. Climate change has thus resulted in a widespread and clear increase in fire intensity in central and eastern Eurasia while we could not discern clear trends in Arctic-boreal North America. Arctic-boreal fire intensity may further increase with climate change, with potentially major consequences for fire regimes, carbon emissions and society.

Historical and projected response of Southeast Asian lakes surface water temperature to warming climate

The temperature of surface and epilimnetic waters, closely related to regional air temperatures, responds quickly and directly to climatic changes. As a result, lake surface temperature (LSWT) can be considered an effective indicator of climate change. In this study, we reconstructed and investigated historical and future LSWT across different scenarios for over 80 major lakes in mainland Southeast Asia (SEA), an ecologically diverse region vulnerable to climate impacts.Five different predicting models, incorporating statistical, machine and deep learning approaches, were trained and validated using ERA5 and CHIRPS climatic feature datasets as predictors and 8-day MODIS-derived LSWT from 2000 to 2020 as reference dataset. Best performing model was then applied to predict both historical (1986–2020) and future (2020–2100) LSWT for SEA lakes, utilizing downscaled climatic CORDEX-SEA feature data and multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). The analysis uncovered historical and future thermal dynamics and long-term trends for both daytime and nighttime LSWT.Among 5 models, XGboost results the most performant (NSE 0.85, RMSE 1.14 °C, MAE 0.69 °C, MBE -0.08 °C) and it has been used for historical reconstruction and future LSWT prediction. The historical analysis revealed a warming trend in SEA lakes, with daytime LSWT increasing at a rate of +0.18 °C/decade and nighttime LSWT at +0.13 °C/decade over the past three decades. These trends appeared of smaller magnitude compared to global estimates of LSWT change rates and less pronounced than concurrent air temperature and LSWT increases in neighbouring regions. Projections under various RCP scenarios indicated continued LSWT warming. Daytime LSWT is projected to increase at varying rates per decade: +0.03 °C under RCP2.6, +0.14 °C under RCP4.5, and +0.29 °C under RCP8.5. Similarly, nighttime LSWT projections under these scenarios are: +0.03 °C, +0.10 °C, and +0.16 °C per decade, respectively. The most optimistic scenario predicted marginal increases of +0.38 °C on average, while the most pessimistic scenario indicated an average LSWT increase of +2.29 °C by end of the century.This study highlights the relevance of LSWT as a climate change indicator in major SEA's freshwater ecosystems. The integration of satellite-derived LSWT, historical and projected climate data into data-driven modelling has enabled new and a more nuanced understanding of LSWT dynamics in relation to climate throughout the entire SEA region.

Characterization of north Greenland polynyas with super-resolved passive microwave sea ice concentration

ABSTRACT Located at the easternmost sector of the Last Ice Area (LIA) with the oldest and thickest sea ice, the north of Greenland has witnessed some unprecedented polynyas since 2018, receiving considerable attention. Sea ice concentration (SIC) derived from passive microwave data can provide near daily observations of these polynyas. However, these SIC products are limited by the coarse spatial resolution of passive microwave data, with mixed pixels and large uncertainties at the ice–water divide. It is especially difficult in the case of newly formed polynyas in the form of leads with narrow openings, preventing accurate estimation of the regional energy budget and heat fluxes as well as the hindering causal analysis of the polynyas. In this paper, a novel state-of-the-art deep-learning-based super-resolution (SR) method is adopted, and passive microwave SR images, with spatial resolutions of up to 4 times the original, are generated and employed to derive super-resolved SIC (SR-SIC). Experimental results confirm the benefits of SR-SIC for finer monitoring of sea ice at both the polynya and lead scale compared to the original lower-resolution SIC, with an average 7.55% improvement in F1-Score for polynya extent and 31.17% for lead width. Using the SR-SIC, more accurate quantitative parameters of polynyas and leads are extracted to present more detailed spatial distributions at their different development stages. For example, SR-SIC with reduced mixed pixels can distinguish more SIC values below 40%, advantageous for detecting open water pixels within polynya areas and improving the accuracy of heat fluxes estimation and ice production calculation. Moreover, SR-SIC has the capability to identify leads with openings less than 3 km and to locate the finer boundaries of the polynyas. Finally, it is found that the lead development along the 2018 winter polynya is associated with regional wind, air temperature, and ice drift. The prominent summer polynya events in 2018, 2020, and 2021 may be in part caused by the thinning sea ice in the north of Greenland.

Occurrence of Sanionia uncinata sporophytes on King George island, Antarctica: Exploring possible links to climate change

This research note presents a report documenting a rare phenomenon observed in Sanionia uncinata (Hedw.) Loeske, entailing the presence of sporophytes across eight distinct locations on King George Island, Antarctica. Additionally, it briefly explores the potential correlation between regional warming air temperatures, water availability, and the emergence of these structures, suggesting their utility as indicators of climate change. Given that S. uncinata is recognized as a hygrophilic moss species typically found in well-hydrated environments, our hypothesis posits that the unprecedented development of substantial sporophyte numbers might be a consequence of rapid regional warming in the vicinity of the Antarctic Peninsula. Further investigations are essential to elucidate the potential interplay between shifting climate patterns and the observed proliferation of Sanionia uncinata sporophytes, thereby contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of their ecological responses to environmental fluctuations.

Projected climate change impact on cyanobacterial bloom phenology in temperate rivers based on temperature dependency

Climate warming is linked to earlier onset and extended duration of cyanobacterial blooms in temperate rivers. This causes an unpredictable extent of harm to the functioning of the ecosystem and public health. We used Microcystis spp. cell density data monitored for seven years (2016–2022) in ten sites across four temperate rivers of the Republic of Korea to define the phenology of cyanobacterial blooms and elucidate the climatic effect on their pattern. The day of year marking the onset, peak, and end of Microcystis growth were estimated using a Weibull function, and linear mixed-effect models were employed to analyze their relationships with environmental variables. These models identified river-specific temperatures at the beginning and end dates of cyanobacterial blooms. Furthermore, the most realistic models were employed to project future Microcystis bloom phenology, considering downscaled and quantile-mapped regional air temperatures from a general circulation model. Daily minimum and daily maximum air temperatures (mintemp and maxtemp) primarily drove the timing of the beginning and end of the bloom, respectively. The models successfully captured the spatiotemporal variations of the beginning and end dates, with mintemp and maxtemp predicted to be 24℃ (R2 = 0.68) and 16℃ (R2 = 0.35), respectively. The beginning and end dates were projected to advance considerably in the future under the Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. The simulations suggested that the largest uncertainty lies in the timing of when the bloom ends, whereas the timing of when blooming begins has less variation. Our study highlights the dependency of cyanobacterial bloom phenology on temperatures and earlier and prolonged bloom development.

Several façade types for mitigating urban heat island intensity

The phenomenon of elevated air temperatures in urban regions, known as urban heat islands (UHI), is closely linked to the thermal properties of building façades in those areas. Heavyweight materials, such as concrete and brick, absorb and release the heat escalating the intensity of UHI. We studied the thermal behaviour of façade types based on various concepts, namely, thermal absorption (brick wall), thermal utilisation (green wall and submerged aluminium composite panels [ACP]), reflection (reflective coating), insulation (expanded polystyrene), and shading or covering (ACP and cement board panel), on the east and west walls of a building. Direct field measurements included surface temperature, solar irradiation, cloud cover, globe temperature, air temperature, wind velocity, and relative humidity near the surface, were conducted in April and July 2021 (7 d monitoring period) on the walls of 90 × 90 cm specimens. The effectiveness of mitigating the urban heat island intensity (UHII) of the façade types in a residential area was simulated using ENVI-met 4.4.5 software. The results showed that heat utilisation (green walls) and reflection effectively reduced UHII. Green walls lowered temperatures by an average of 0.65 °C during the monitoring period (maximum 0.99 °C) through evapotranspiration, whereas the reflective coating reduced by 0.53 °C on average (maximum 1.89 °C) during low sun angles in the morning and afternoon. These findings will be helpful for architects, urban planners, and policymakers to contribute to UHI mitigation.

Effects of complex environment on soil thermal regime alteration under crushed-rock embankment structures in the permafrost region on the Roof of the World

The thermal stability of permafrost under complex environment (climate scenarios, permafrost types and regional air temperatures) directly affects the long-term service performance of highway or railway. This study uses a large amount of valuable soil temperature monitoring and simulation data to examine the stability of typical crushed-rock embankments (CREs) along Qinghai-Tibet Railway, which is located in the permafrost region on the Roof of the World. Firstly, a novel numerical model for CREs considering a complex heat transfer environment is established and verified. Then, alteration characteristics of recent-term thermal regime of permafrost across time and space under three CREs are revealed based on a decade of field monitoring data. Finally, long-term thermal regime of permafrost under three CREs under complex environment is analyzed by numerical simulation. Results include: 1) Soil temperature near the ground surface under the three CREs shows a decreasing trend, whereas the overall temperature around the deep permafrost increases over time under a recent climate warming. 2) The warming rate of permafrost under CREs rises with the acceleration of climate scenarios and regional air temperature and the decrease of regional ground temperatures. 3) U-shaped crushed-rock embankment is the most suitable CRE for managing complex environment, especially when the mean annual ground temperature is 0 ∼ − 1 °C or climate scenarios are RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5. 4) Transition from low-temperature permafrost to warm permafrost is a warning signal of permafrost degradation under climate warming. 5) With an increase of permafrost degradation rate (the thawing and warming rates of permafrost), embankment stability becomes worse. These findings will not only serve as a scientific basis for the embankment damage prevention of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, but also provide important technical supports for the successful building of infrastructure in permafrost regions under complex environment.

Arctic warming drives striking twenty-first century ecosystem shifts in Great Slave Lake (Subarctic Canada), North America's deepest lake.

Great Slave Lake (GSL), one of the world's largest and deepest lakes, has undergone an aquatic ecosystem transformation in response to twenty-first-century accelerated Arctic warming that is unparalleled in at least the past two centuries. Algal remains from four high-resolution palaeolimnological records retrieved from the West Basin provide baseline limnological data that we compared with historical phycological surveys undertaken on GSL between the 1940s and 1990s. We document the rapid restructuring of algal community composition ca 2000 CE that is consistent with recent increases in regional air temperature and declines in ice cover and wind speed, that collectively altered habitats for aquatic biota. This new limnological regime initiated the first observation of scaled chrysophytes and favoured the rapid proliferation of small planktonic cyclotelloid diatoms which replaced the long-established dominance of large filamentous Aulacoseira islandica in West Basin sedimentary records. Such abrupt transformations in the primary producers of this socioecologically valuable 'northern Great Lake' may have widespread implications for the entire food web with unknown consequences for aquatic ecosystem functioning and fisheries, which First Nations, Métis and other northern communities depend upon, pointing to the need for new studies.

Quantifying Water Impoundment-Driven Air Temperature Changes in the Dammed Jinsha River, Southwest China

A number of previous studies have contributed to a better understanding of the thermal impacts of dam-related reservoirs on stream temperature, but very few studies have focused on air temperature, especially at the catchment scale. In addition, due to the lack of quantitative analysis, the identification of the effects of water impoundment on regional air temperature is still lacking. We investigated the impacts of reservoirs on the regional air temperature changes before and after two large dam constructions in the lower Jinsha River located in southwest China, by using a 40 year record of reanalysis data at 90 m resolutions. Furthermore, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model was also employed to construct an impoundment effect on the temperature (IET) index. Research results indicate that compared to the pre-impoundment period (1980–2012), the variations in the air temperature at the catchment scale were reduced during the post-impoundment period (2013–2019). The annual maximum air temperature decreased by 0.4 °C relative to the natural regimes. In contrast, the cumulative effects of dam-related reservoirs increased the annual mean and minimum air temperature by 0.1 °C and 1.0 °C, respectively. Warming effects prevailed during the dry season and in the regions with high elevations, while cooling effects dominated within a 4 km buffer of the reservoirs. Therefore, this study offers important insights about the impacts of anthropogenic impoundments on air temperature changes, which could be useful for policymakers to have a more informed and profound understanding of local climate changes in dammed areas.

Amplified Decadal Variability of Extratropical Surface Temperatures by Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling

AbstractThe dominant pattern of Northern Hemisphere extratropical climate variability is the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which in wintertime represents the coupling of the stratospheric and tropospheric circulations. The internal variability associated with the NAM has been shown to give rise to substantial uncertainty in climate projections of regional surface air temperatures (SATs), but it's unclear how much of this variability arises from stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes. Here, using three large‐ensemble coupled climate model simulations from 1850 to 2100 with varying fidelity of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes, we demonstrate that regional SAT variability across timescales is amplified when the tropospheric NAM is coupled to the stratospheric NAM. Moreover, models that lack adequate simulation of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes may not capture the magnitude of uncertainty in near‐term SAT projections associated with this coupling.

Changes in the Carpathian fauna of Malachiinae beetles (Coleoptera, Melyridae) in the context of temperature increase

Over last century in Europe a tendency of change in species ranges has occurred for insects of different taxonomic groups. We analyzed the changes that have taken place in the distribution of some soft-winged beetles (Malachiinae, Melyridae) species in the Carpathian region. The obtained data are based on a study of museum beetles’ collections and the authors’ collected materials. Data comparison relating to species distribution shows that the Carpathian fauna during the second half of the 20th century increased by 12 species. Some species have significantly changed their ranges. Species of Southern European and Mediterranean (Anthomalachius strangulatus, Clanoptilus spinipennis), Central-East European (Apalochrus femoralis, Clanoptilus falcifer) origin spread to the East Carpathian region. And vice versa, some species (e.g. Malachius scutellaris) from Central European and the Carpathian regions have spread beyond their borders of ranges to the East and North. Malachiinae species are anthophilic insects. Their life cycles, flight period, and distribution depend on the phenology of host plants. Acceleration of phenophases of the host plants and intensification of the metamorphosis processes due to increase in air temperature has caused an earlier appearance of soft-winged beetles in recent years and contributed to expansion of the ranges of some species of them. In our opinion, expansion of the species ranges and penetration of new beetle species into the Carpathian region from surrounding areas are related to the climate changes, in particular to warming. This thesis is confirmed by multiyear air temperature data of the Transcarpathian Centre of Hydrometeorology. On a background of increase in regional air temperature by about 0.8 °C an average air temperature in foothills of Ukrainian Carpathians has increased by 1.7 °C during last 50–60 years.

Spatially variable effects of streamflow on water temperature and thermal sensitivity within a salmon‐bearing watershed in interior British Columbia, Canada

AbstractWarming temperatures can have negative consequences for aquatic organisms, especially cold‐adapted fishes such as Pacific salmon. The magnitude of warming is related to the thermal sensitivity of streams in salmon‐bearing watersheds (i.e., change in stream temperature for every 1°C increase in air temperature), which can vary based on several factors including streamflow. Management actions to increase streamflow may therefore benefit salmon by decreasing thermal sensitivity. However, the effects of streamflow on thermal sensitivity are often complex, as the temperature of flow inputs can directly increase or decrease temperatures. This study aimed to disentangle the influence of streamflow on thermal sensitivity and stream temperature over 4 years in the Nicola River, a regulated semiarid watershed in south‐central British Columbia, Canada. A statistical modeling approach was used to estimate streamflow effects on stream temperatures and thermal sensitivity (i.e., relationship of regional air temperature to stream temperature) at 12 sites from 2018 to 2021. Streamflow had a variable influence on stream temperatures across the watershed via both direct effects and by modulating thermal sensitivity. At a given site, streamflow was generally negatively associated with summer daily mean stream temperature, but the magnitude of its influence varied among locations and years. The influence of streamflow on thermal sensitivity was also highly variable both spatially and temporally. The analysis suggests that there may be complex relationships between streamflow, stream temperature, and thermal sensitivity, which complicates the efficacy of flow as a lever to mitigate high temperatures in regulated systems.

Constraint on regional land surface air temperature projections in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

The reliability of the near-land-surface air temperature (LSAT) projections from the state-of-the-art climate-system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6) is debatable, particularly on regional scales. Here we introduce a method of constructing a constrained multi-model-ensemble (CMME), based on rejecting models that fail to reproduce observed LSAT trends. We use the CMME to constrain future LSAT projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) and 2–4.5 (SSP2–4.5), representing the high and intermediate scenarios. In comparison with the “raw” (unconstrained) CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME) mean, the impact of the observation-based constraint is less than 0.05oC 100 years−1 at a global scale over the second half of 21st century. However, the regional results show a wider range of positive and negative adjustments, from -1.0oC 100 years−1 to 1oC 100 years−1 under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. Although amplitude under SSP2–4.5 is relatively smaller, the CMME adjustment is similar to that under SSP5–8.5, indicating the scenario independency of the CMME impact. The ideal 1pctCO2 experiment suggests that the response of LSAT to carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing on regional scales is responsible for the MME biases in the historical period, implying the high reliability of CMME in the 21st century projections. The advantage of CMME is that it goes beyond the idea of “model democracy” assumed in MME. The unconstrained CMIP6 MME may be overestimating the risks of future warming over North America, but underestimating the risks over Asia.

Researching the current hydrological state of the Torey lakes region of the Ulzda-Torey internal drainage area

The research of the Torey lakes regon, Ulzda-Torey internal drainage area has established that the manifestation of the general global warming trend in the recent decades had been the moderate regional temperature shifts which induce significant changes in the hydrological states and lead to shifts of the hydrological cycle in general. It has been verified that in the discussed area the ground air temperature indications had shifted from the average negative to the average positive. In the period of 1938-1989 the air temperature had a negative value with the average of -1.0°C in 52 years. Starting from 1989 the average annual temperature indications had turned positive, namely +0.4°C in 32 years. A comparative research of the area for the 1938-2021 period has indicated that the regional air temperature rise by 2.2°C combined with the waning annual amount of atmospheric precipitation (with the average of 21%) leads to a sharp decrease of the average annual river flow (by 16%) and even down to none.

CHELSA-W5E5: daily 1 km meteorological forcing data for climate impact studies

Abstract. Current changes in the world's climate increasingly impact a wide variety of sectors globally, from agriculture and ecosystems to water and energy supply or human health. Many impacts of climate on these sectors happen at high spatio-temporal resolutions that are not covered by current global climate datasets. Here we present CHELSA-W5E5 (https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.836809.3, Karger et al., 2022): a climate forcing dataset at daily temporal resolution and 30 arcsec spatial resolution for air temperatures, precipitation rates, and downwelling shortwave solar radiation. This dataset is a spatially downscaled version of the 0.5∘ W5E5 dataset using the CHELSA V2 topographic downscaling algorithm. We show that the downscaling generally increases the accuracy of climate data by decreasing the bias and increasing the correlation with measurements from meteorological stations. Bias reductions are largest in topographically complex terrain. Limitations arise for minimum near-surface air temperatures in regions that are prone to cold-air pooling or at the upper extreme end of surface downwelling shortwave radiation. We further show that our topographically downscaled climate data compare well with the results of dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, as time series from both sources are similarly well correlated to station observations. This is remarkable given the lower computational cost of the CHELSA V2 algorithm compared to WRF and similar models. Overall, we conclude that the downscaling can provide higher-resolution climate data with increased accuracy. Hence, the dataset will be of value for a wide range of climate change impact studies both at global level and for applications that cover more than one region and benefit from using a consistent dataset across these regions.

Influence of retro-reflective and high-reflective coatings on thermal performance of buildings in summer and winter: A contrast experiment

The solar radiation has a great effect on the thermal environment of regional buildings, and reflective coatings can increase the amount of solar reflectance and reduce the solar heat gain. In summer, it can effectively improve the regional thermal environment, but in winter, it may be ineffective, or even counterproductive. This study aimed to experimentally evaluate the thermal performance of retro-reflective coatings (RRC) with unique reflective mechanism in enclosed buildings in both summer and winter, and took high-reflective coatings (HRC) as the comparison. The regional albedos, wall temperatures, and air temperatures were measured, which showed that both in summer and winter, RRC had higher regional albedos, lower wall temperatures and air temperatures than HRC, however, the differences were smaller in winter, which would lead to more thermal benefits in summer caused by RRC than thermal penalties in winter. For the regional albedos, the maximum differences in summer and winter were 4.99% and 2.46%, and the values were 2.74 °C–11.61 °C and 1.39 °C–5.61 °C for the wall temperatures, 2.10 °C and 0.39 °C for the air temperatures in the enclosed space.