Atlantic Region Research Articles

Influence of the Tibetan Plateau on the coupling of the North Pacific–North Atlantic pressure systems

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts a profound influence on global climate change. In the boreal winter, the TP has a notable impact on the Asian winter monsoon. Nevertheless, the relationship between the TP and the climate of the remote Arctic region is not yet fully understood. The North Pacific and North Atlantic pressure systems exhibit dynamic linkages through the Aleutian Low–Icelandic Low seesaw in the boreal winter season. However, the extent to which large mountains, such as those in the TP, influence this coupling remains unclear. In this study, we conducted an orographically sensitive experiment using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6. The results obtained from the model indicate that the TP influences Arctic pressure anomalies specifically via the modulation of the Aleutian Low–Icelandic Low seesaw. Specifically, the TP favors the eastward extension of a pattern resembling the Pacific–North American pattern, achieved by enhancing the horizontally propagating wave trains originating from the eastern Pacific, thus establishing a clear Aleutian Low–Icelandic Low seesaw. In addition, the TP was a critical factor in the stratosphere–troposphere coupling as it facilitated the shift of the stratospheric polar vortex towards Eurasia in a poleward direction, potentially leading to the extension of the wave train emanating from the North Pacific across North America. These results suggest that the TP significantly contributes to Arctic climate variability. This influence is observed via the TP-mediated modulation of the teleconnection between the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.

Using the old-growth concept to identify old species-rich semi-natural grasslands

The concept of ‘old growth’, originally developed for forests, was recently extended to grassland to distinguish old natural grasslands (NG) from semi-natural grassland (SNG). Comparing mesophile SNGs of different ages, we show that the concept is also able to distinguish old SNGs from young SNGs and also that assembly time plays a determining role in the ecology and evolution of SNG. As expected from the old-growth concept and like NG, old SNGs have an unique floristic composition with a higher greater proportion of long-lived species with underground storage, clonal growth organs and bud banks, higher species richness, diversity and evenness. Furthermore, they have much greater floral abundances and contain sedge species not found in younger SNGs such as Carex caryophyllea which is a reliable indicator of old unimproved species-rich grasslands. Comparison with other old grassland systems suggests that the old SNGs are probably remnants of the rich biodiversity of the grassland vegetation that was once widespread in the Atlantic biogeographic region. Given their ecological, cultural and aesthetic values and their role in essential ecosystem services, these threatened old SNGs deserve urgent protection.

Exploring novel alkane-degradation pathways in uncultured bacteria from the North Atlantic Ocean.

Microbes play a significant role in the degradation of petroleum hydrocarbons in the oceans, yet little is known about the native bacteria that metabolize hydrocarbons before an oil spill. The Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC) is a deepwater subarctic region of the North Atlantic with prominent oil production and a diverse microbial community associated with the degradation of petroleum. Here, we combine DNA-based stable-isotope probing (DNA-SIP) with metagenomics to elucidate the metabolic underpinnings of native alkane-degrading bacteria from the FSC. From two 13C n-hexadecane SIP experiments using seawater from 5 and 700 m depths in the FSC, we obtained 42 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) belonging to 19 genera, including two previously overlooked hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria, Lentibacter (Alphaproteobacteria) and Dokdonia (Bacteroidetes). Diversity surveys indicated Lentibacter were dominant members of the FSC, constituting up to 17% of these communities. Many of the SIP-enriched MAGs (20/42) encoded a complete alkane oxidation pathway, including alkane monooxygenase (AlkB), rubredoxin reductase (AlkT), and rubredoxin-2 (AlkG). Fourteen Aphaproteobacteria MAGs lacked AlkG for electron transfer. Instead, they encoded novel disulfide isomerases with iron-binding cysteine motifs conserved across rubredoxins. Dokdonia lacked AlkT and AlkG, however, their central alkane-degradation catabolic pathways were complete. We describe previously unrecognized bacteria capable of hydrocarbon degradation, including the dominant genera Lentibacter, which may continuously purge hydrocarbons released from oil exploration activities in the FSC. This advances the understanding of the diversity and physiologies of alkane degradation in the North Atlantic and provides evidence of new mechanisms used to metabolize alkanes. IMPORTANCE Petroleum pollution in the ocean has increased because of rapid population growth and modernization, requiring urgent remediation. Our understanding of the metabolic response of native microbial communities to oil spills is not well understood. Here, we explored the baseline hydrocarbon-degrading communities of a subarctic Atlantic region to uncover the metabolic potential of the bacteria that inhabit the surface and subsurface water. We conducted enrichments with a 13C-labeled hydrocarbon to capture the fraction of the community actively using the hydrocarbon. We then combined this approach with metagenomics to identify the metabolic potential of this hydrocarbon-degrading community. This revealed previously undescribed uncultured bacteria with unique metabolic mechanisms involved in aerobic hydrocarbon degradation, indicating that temperature may be pivotal in structuring hydrocarbon-degrading baseline communities. Our findings highlight gaps in our understanding of the metabolic complexity of hydrocarbon degradation by native marine microbial communities.

The impact of ICE‐6G ice sheet topography in the oceanic carbonate system

AbstractDuring the Last Glacial Maximum (approximately 21 ka BP) the presence of large ice sheets over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) caused significant changes in the ocean–atmosphere interaction. Remarkable changes are noticed in NH both topography and atmospheric CO2 levels. This paper investigates the impact of the most recent paleotopography (ICE6G) in the Earth's climate and the oceanic carbonate system, based on a series of experiments conducted with the oceanic‐atmosphere‐vegetation‐ice‐carbon model, UVic ESCM. Results indicate enhanced cooling in northern North America in the ICE6G compared to the ICE4G simulation due to the lapse rate effect. The decrease of −24°C in the surface temperature in the ICE6G relative to the present day (PD) led to a modification of the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic and North Pacific regions. Positive and negative anomalies vary widely for the E–P (evaporation–precipitation) flux pattern, but colder and drier atmosphere leads to a reduction in precipitation in the ICE6G experiment. Changes in wind stress between ICE6G and PD induce low temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. These features are related changes of Ekman's transport and evaporative cooling resulting in positive anomalies of SST. Thus, changes in sea surface temperature and salinity (SST, SSS), and E–P flux led to modifications in the oceanic carbonate system, resulting in an overall increase of total alkalinity and a reduction in the concentrations of total carbon dioxide (TCO2) in the ICE6G with respect to the PD values. This is a consequence of the low concentration of glacial CO2 and increment in concentrations. The total alkalinity (TA) and TCO2 do not show a similar response to the SST and SSS, in the sense that larger departures from the PD are found in the Pacific equatorial region, which are affected by changes in water dilution as a result of precipitation and evaporation processes.

Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling during Sudden Stratospheric Warmings with Different North Atlantic Jet Response

Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme disruptions of the wintertime polar vortex that can alter the tropospheric weather for over 2 months. However, the reasons why only some SSWs have a tropospheric impact are not yet clear. This study analyses the tropospheric impact of SSWs over the Atlantic region as measured by the latitudinal displacement of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet following SSWs. We use reanalysis data for the period 1950–2020 to examine differences in the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation for SSWs with an equatorward (EQ) or a poleward (POLE) shift. Our results show a stronger and more persistent Northern Annular Mode (NAM) signal in the lower stratosphere for EQ than for POLE, beginning 2 weeks before the onset date. In the troposphere, we find precursory signals of the Atlantic jet behavior over Siberia, consistent with previous studies, and also over the central North Pacific and central Europe. In particular, our results suggest that the noncanonical poleward jet shift response to SSWs is in part modulated by circulation anomalies over the central North Pacific, and that these are in turn connected to the cold phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Further analysis of the enhanced predictability given by these precursors suggests that the sign of the lower-stratospheric NAM and the geopotential anomalies over the central North Pacific significantly affect the probability of having an EQ or POLE response of the Atlantic jet.

Patterns and Trends in Chlorophyll‐a Concentration and Phytoplankton Phenology in the Biogeographical Regions of Southwestern Atlantic

AbstractThe Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SWA), is considered one of the most productive areas of the world, with a high abundance of ecologically and economically important fish species. Yet, the biological responses of this complex region to climate variability are still uncertain. Here, using 24 years of satellite‐derived Chl‐a data, we classified the SWA into 9 spatially coherent regions based on the temporal variability of Chl‐a concentration, as revealed by SOM (Self‐Organizing Maps) analysis. These biogeographical regions were the basis of a regional trend analysis in phytoplankton biomass, phenological indices, and environmental forcing variations. A general positive trend in phytoplankton concentration was observed, especially in the highly productive areas of the northern shelf‐break, where phytoplankton biomass has increased at a rate of up to 0.42 ± 0.04 mg m−3 per decade. Significant positive trends in sea surface temperature were observed in 4 of the 9 regions (0.08–0.26 °C decade−1) and shoaling of the mixing layer depth in 5 of the 9 regions (−1.50 to −3.36 m decade−1). In addition to the generally positive trend in Chl‐a, the most conspicuous change in the phytoplankton temporal patterns in the SWA is a delay in the autumn bloom (between 15 ± 3 and 24 ± 6 days decade−1, depending on the region). The observed variations in phytoplankton phenology could be attributed to climate‐induced ocean warming and extended stratification period. Our results provided further evidence of the impact of climate change on these highly productive waters.

Volcanic Imprints in Last-Millennium Land Summer Temperatures in the Circum–North Atlantic Area

Abstract Summer cooling is one of the most direct consequences of explosive volcanic eruptions that can affect ecosystems and human societies. Recent studies revealed a multiyear cooling impact on hemispheric and global summer temperatures after tropical eruptions, yet the volcanic responses appear to vary on regional scales. Here, we revisit volcano-induced summer cooling in eastern Canada and northern and central Europe by applying superposed epoch analysis on CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations and millennial temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring density. We then examine potential causes modulating region-specific volcanic impact. While confirming that, on average, tropical eruptions over the last millennium have induced a longer cooling (>4 yr) than eruptions from extratropical Northern Hemisphere in all three North Atlantic regions, we show that the peak magnitude of cooling is stronger in eastern Canada. We also find that the detected volcanic temperature anomalies can be strongly affected by the selection and number of volcanic events and nonvolcanic signals embedded in the climate time series. This study highlights the risks of using highly noisy proxy records to investigate volcanic impacts, especially in regions with strong unforced climate variability. The CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations generally agree with the three reconstructions on the average response to tropical eruptions, but their performance is poorer regarding the production of significant cooling after extratropical eruptions. Our results further suggest that the particular sensitivity to tropical eruptions in eastern Canada is likely related to increased sea ice surrounding Quebec–Labrador associated with the positive Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation formed during the first posteruption winter.

South American Monsoon Lifecycle Projected by Statistical Downscaling with CMIP6-GCMs

This study analyzed the main features (onset, demise, and length) of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) projected in different time slices (2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079, and 2080–2099) and climate scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5). Eight global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that perform well in representing South America’s historical climate (1995–2014) were initially selected. Thus, the bias correction–statistical downscaling (BCSD) technique, using quantile delta mapping (QDM), was applied in each model to obtain higher-resolution projections than their original grid. The horizontal resolution adopted was 0.5° of latitude × longitude, the same as the Climate Prediction Center precipitation analysis used as a reference dataset in BCSD. The QDM technique improved the monsoon onset west of 60° W and the simulated demise and length in southwestern Amazonia. Raw and BCSD ensembles project an onset delay of approximately three pentads compared to the historical period over almost all regions and a demise delay of two pentads northward 20° S. Additionally, the BCSD ensemble projects a reduced length with statistical significance in most South Atlantic Convergence Zone regions and a delay of three pentads in the demise over the Brazilian Amazon from the second half of the 21st century.

What is The Most Common Human Factor That Threatens Marine Species in The North Atlantic Ocean Region?

In the North Atlantic Ocean Region, the greatest human threat to marine species is ship strikes. The many different species that reside in the ocean are affected greatly by various human factors such as pollution, ship traffic, infrastructure in the water and net entanglement. In this paper we establish that ship strikes cause the most damage to species in the North Atlantic region. We found that ship traffic affects many species greatly, from being the cause of death for 53% of the 40 Right whales autopsied between 1970 and 2006, to hundreds of sturgeon across three distinct regions killed by this method. Ship strikes are the most damaging factor, especially to the larger marine animals in the ocean such as whales and sturgeon. Our results not only show how one factor harms these species to a great extent, but how humans, through many different forms, greatly threaten the survival of other species. We conclude that these factors will continue to harm and threaten the well-being of species unless concerted action is taken to mitigate the effects.

Global reorganization of atmospheric circulation during Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles

Ice core records from Greenland provide evidence for multiple abrupt cold-warm-cold events recurring at millennial time scales during the last glacial interval. Although climate variations resembling Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) oscillations have been identified in climate archives across the globe, our understanding of the climate and ecosystem impacts of the Greenland warming events in lower latitudes remains incomplete. Here, we investigate the influence of DO-cold-to-warm transitions on the global atmospheric circulation pattern. We comprehensively analyze δ18O changes during DO transitions in a globally distributed dataset of speleothems and set those in context with simulations of a comprehensive high-resolution climate model featuring internal millennial-scale variations of similar magnitude. Across the globe, speleothem δ18O signals and model results indicate consistent large-scale changes in precipitation amount, moisture source, or seasonality of precipitation associated with the DO transitions, in agreement with northward shifts of the Hadley circulation. Furthermore, we identify a decreasing trend in the amplitude of DO transitions with increasing distances from the North Atlantic region. This provides quantitative observational evidence for previous suggestions of the North Atlantic region being the focal point for these archetypes of past abrupt climate changes.

210Pb Deposition Distribution in the Northern Hemisphere Based on a Long-Range Atmospheric Transport and Deposition Model Calculation

This study delves into the long-term atmospheric transport and deposition of 210Pb in the Northern Hemisphere by using the atmospheric transport model HIRAT. The calculation for the four-year (2012–2015) period showed an average deposition flux of 13.0 Bq m−2 month−1 with significant seasonal variations characterized by higher deposition rates during summer and lower during winter. High deposition was found in the Northern Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh regions, Southern China, the Western Philippine Sea, the Eastern Japan Sea, the Northwestern Pacific region, the Eastern and Western coasts of North America, the Caribbean Sea, the Eastern Pacific region off of Central America, the Central Atlantic region between Central America and Africa, and the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Deposition patterns varied across latitudinal zones, with tropical areas experiencing the highest deposition and polar/subpolar zones the lowest. This study emphasized the impact of monsoons on the significantly large 210Pb deposition in the Japan Sea region. Furthermore, this study showed that the lower troposphere (0 to 3 km) dominates with about 53%, and the middle troposphere (3 to 6 km) and upper troposphere (above 6 km) also contribute significantly to the total 210Pb inventory with 37% and 10%, respectively. These findings provide essential insights into the characteristics of atmospheric transport and deposition of 210Pb, and their mechanisms.

Canada and ocean climate adaptation: tracking law and policy responses, charting future directions

This research article provides a law and policy summary of climate change adaptation initiatives in Canada at the ocean-climate nexus. Three levels of governance are examined (national, provincial, and Indigenous) with a focus on the Atlantic region. The research method was the review of relevant and newly amended laws, regulations and policy statements, and related commentaries. The roles of the federal government are first described with key developments including the launch of a Climate Adaptation Platform in 2012 to share adaptation experiences and information and release of a National Adaptation Strategy and accompanying Adaptation Action Plan in November 2022. Federal adaptation efforts in the areas of fisheries, aquaculture and shipping are also reviewed along with progress in establishing marine protected areas (MPAs) and other effective area-based conservation measures. Provincial adaptation initiatives are next summarized with a focus on the four Atlantic provinces. Those provinces have established a regional hub, CLIMAtlantic, to provide climate information and advance climate-related research and training. Each province has developed a climate action plan which includes climate adaptation priorities. Indigenous-led climate engagement and adaptation initiatives are finally described including the publication in 2019 of a National Inuit Climate Change Strategy, regional initiatives of the Atlantic Policy Congress of First Nations Chiefs Secretariat, and the development of climate adaptation plans by select First Nation communities in the Atlantic region. The paper concludes by discussing future law and policy directions to make Canada more “climate ready.” Adoption of climate adaptation strategies for governmental departments and agencies with ocean and coastal responsibilities should be a priority. Incorporating climate change adaptation responsibilities through legislative and regulatory changes also needs to be considered, for example, by amending Canada’s Oceans Act to recognize the role of oceans in climate adaptations and mitigation, to authorize the designation of MPAs as climate refuges and to require adaptive and dynamic MPA management plans through strict monitoring and timely review provisions. Indigenous peoples must be effectively included in all climate adaptation discussions and planning.

Dynamics of codfish stocks in the North Atlantic region

Purpose: to investigate the features of the long-term dynamics of codfish stocks in the North Atlantic region as a basis for predicting their state and sustainable fishing (exploitation). Materials: data on spawning stock biomass, abundance of recruitment at age 0 to 3 years, survival indices at early ontogenesis stage for 11 Atlantic cod stocks, 6 Atlantic haddock stocks, and 4 saithe stocks for the period 1946–2020 Methods: a comparative analysis of the above time series based on their statistical processing. Novelty: For the first time, a 50–60-year cycle which characterizes the long-term variations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index, were revealed in the long-term fluctuations of the Northeast Arctic cod recruitment. This assumes a relationship in the long-term variations of two parameters under consideration. Results: The significant interannual variability of all characteristics was identified for each of the 21 commercial fish stocks under consideration. Statistically significant positive correlations were found between changes in recruitment abundance of Atlantic cod in the Northwest Atlantic and Atlantic cod, Atlantic haddock, and saithe in the areas of Greenland, Iceland, North and Baltic Seas. Changes in the recruitment abundance of Labrador cod and Northeast Arctic cod in the Barents Sea are opposite. Practical significance: the results of this work can be used to improve the methods of the medium-range and long-range forecasts of codfish catches in the North Atlantic region.

Rising snow line: Ocean acidification and the submergence of seafloor geomorphic features beneath a rising carbonate compensation depth

Due to burning of fossil fuels, carbon dioxide is being absorbed by the ocean where its chemical conversion to carbonic acid has already caused the surface ocean to become more acidic than it has been for at least the last 2 million years. Global ocean modeling suggests that the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) has already risen by nearly 100 m on average since pre-industrial times and will likely rise further by several hundred meters more this century. Potentially millions of square kilometres of ocean floor will undergo a rapid transition in terms of the overlying water chemistry whereby calcareous sediment will become unstable causing the carbonate “snow line” to rise.We carried out a spatial analysis of seafloor geomorphology to assess the area newly submerged below the rising CCD. We found that shoaling of the CCD since the industrial revolution has submerged 12,432,096 km2 of ocean floor (3.60% of total ocean area) below the CCD. Further hypothetical shoaling of the CCD by 100 m increments illustrated that the surface area of seafloor submerged below the CCD has risen by 14% with 300 m of shoaling, such that 51% of the ocean area will be below the CCD. All categories of geomorphic feature mapped in one global database intersect the lysocline and will be (or already are) submerged below the CCD with much regional variation since the rise in CCD depth during the last 150 years varies significantly between different ocean regions. For seamounts, the highest percentages of increase in area submerged below the CCD occurred in the Southern Indian Ocean and the South West Atlantic regions (6.3% and 5.9%, respectively). For submarine canyons we found the South West Atlantic increased from 3.9% in pre-industrial times to 8.0% at the present time, the highest percentage of canyons found below the CCD in any ocean region.We also carried out a relative risk assessment for future submergence of ocean floor below the CCD in 17 ocean regions. In our assessment we assumed that the change in CCD from pre-industrial times to the present is an indicator of the likelihood and the change in percentage of seafloor submerged below the CCD due to a hypothetical 300 m rise in the CCD is an indicator of the consequences. We found that the western equatorial Atlantic is at high risk and 9 other Ocean Regions are at moderate risk. Overall, geomorphic features in the Atlantic Ocean and southern Indian Ocean are at greater risk of impact from a rising CCD than Pacific and other Indian Ocean regions.A separate analysis of the Arctic Ocean points to the possible submergence of glacial troughs incised on the continental shelf within a mid-depth (400–800 m) acidified water mass. We also found that the area of national Exclusive Economic Zones submerged below the rising CCD exhibits extreme variability; with 300 m of CCD shoaling we found a > 12% increase in area submerged below the CCD for 23 national EEZs, whereas there was virtually no change for other countries.

Diurnal variations of tropical cyclone outer region size growth

AbstractVarious aspects of tropical cyclones (TCs) fluctuate with the diurnal cycle. TC size is critical to the extent of its damage, but diurnal variations in the growth of the outer region size have largely remained unexplored. This paper examines the diurnal variations in the growth of the radius of gale‐force winds (34 kt; R34) by analyzing best‐track data from 2001 to 2019 for both North Atlantic TCs and global TCs outside of the North Atlantic region. Statistically significant diurnal variations was found for R34 growth, with the maximum 6‐h growth rate occurring at 2100–0300 local solar time (LST) for North Atlantic TCs, and at 0300–0900 LST for global TCs excluding the North Atlantic which experienced rapid intensification (≥30 knots within 24 h). The higher R34 6‐h growth rates during the night were linked to a larger extent of very deep convective clouds with infrared brightness temperatures <208 K during this time.

What do dust sinks tell us about their sources and past environmental dynamics? A case study for oxygen isotope stages 3–2 in the Middle Rhine Valley, Germany

Abstract. The study of geological archives of dust is of great relevance as they are directly linked to past atmospheric circulation and bear the potential to reconstruct dust provenance and flux relative to climate changes. Among the dust sinks, loess–palaeosol sequences (LPSs) represent the only continental and non-aquatic archives that are predominantly built up by dust deposits close to source areas, providing detailed information on Quaternary climatic and terrestrial environmental changes. Upper Pleistocene LPSs of western central Europe have been investigated in great detail showing their linkage to millennial-scale northern hemispheric climate oscillations, but comprehensive data on dust composition and potential source–sink relationships as well as inferred past atmospheric circulation patterns for this region are still fragmentary. Here, we present an integrative approach that systematically combines sedimentological, rock magnetic, and bulk geochemical data, as well as information on Sr and Nd isotope composition, enabling a synthetic interpretation of LPS formation. We focus on the Schwalbenberg RP1 profile in the Middle Rhine Valley in Germany and integrate our data into a robust age model that has recently been established based on high-resolution radiocarbon dating of earthworm calcite granules. We show that Schwalbenberg RP1 is subdivided into a lower section corresponding to late oxygen isotope stage 3 (OIS; ∼ 40–30 ka) and an upper section dating into the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼ 24–22 ka), separated by a major stratigraphic unconformity. Sedimentological proxies of wind dynamics (U ratio) and pedogenesis (finest clay) of the lower section attest to comparable and largely synchronous patterns of northern hemispheric climatic changes supporting the overall synchronicity of climatic changes in and around the North Atlantic region. The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) reveals a clear correlation between finer grain size and increasing AMS foliation within interstadials, possibly owing to continuous accumulation of dust during pedogenic phases. Such a clear negative correlation has so far not been described for any LPS on stadial–interstadial scales. Distinct shifts in several proxy data supported by changes in isotope composition (87Sr/86Sr and εNd) within the lower section are interpreted as changes in provenance and decreasing weathering simultaneously with an overall cooling and aridification towards the end of OIS 3 (after ∼ 35 ka) and enhanced wind activity with significant input of coarse-grained material recycled from local sources related to increased landscape instability (after ∼ 31.5 ka). We find that environmental conditions within the upper section, most likely dominated by local to regional environmental signals, significantly differ from those in the lower section. In addition, AMS-based reconstructions of near-surface wind trends may indicate the influence of north-easterly winds beside the overall dominance of westerlies. The integrative approach contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of LPS formation including changes in dust composition and associated circulation patterns during Quaternary climate changes.

Upstream–Downstream Asymmetry in Multiscale Interaction Underlying the Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blockings

Abstract The typical blockings over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Ural Mountain regions are investigated for an understanding of their dynamical interactions in a unified treatment with their respective basic flows and high-frequency processes, respectively. Thanks to the localized nature of the new methodology as used in this study, for the first time we identify a dipolar structure (for each of the three regions) in the map of the interscale energy transfer from the basic flow to the composite blocking, with a positive center upstream and a negative center downstream. This indicates the crucial role of the instability of the basic flow in the maintenance of blockings, which has been overlooked due to the bulk nature of the spatially integrated energetics (by summing the transfer over the whole blocking, the two centers essentially cancel out, leaving an insignificant bulk transfer). For the interaction between the blocking and the high-frequency storms, the well-known critical role of the upscale forcing in blocking development is confirmed. But, unexpectedly, except for that over the Atlantic where the forcing exists throughout, over the other two regions the forcing is found to occur mainly downstream. This is quite different from what the classical theory, e.g., the famous eddy strain mechanism of Shutts, would predict.

Winter Precipitation Responses to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Global Ocean Warming and Their Opposing Influences over the Northeast Atlantic Region

Abstract Using a large ensemble of simulations from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) and phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we compare the response of winter-mean precipitation and daily extremes across the Northern Hemisphere to future Arctic sea ice loss and global ocean warming. The North Atlantic is simulated to become drier in response to future Arctic sea ice loss, with reduced precipitation intensity and more dry days. A wetting response to sea ice loss is simulated over the midlatitude Atlantic Ocean. These responses are robust across the eight models analyzed, albeit with differences in their magnitude and spatial pattern. The precipitation response to global ocean warming is broadly opposite in sign, but larger in magnitude, compared to the response to sea ice loss, over these regions. The precipitation responses to both sea ice loss and ocean warming are strongly related to coincident changes in storm density and intensity. More specifically, there is an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic storm track in response to sea ice loss, and a northeastern extension of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track in response to ocean warming. The linear combination of the responses of future Arctic sea ice loss and global ocean warming explain well the spatial pattern of the precipitation change at 2°C global warming projected in CMIP6. Our results suggest that the projected future precipitation change over the North Atlantic reflects a “tug of war” between Arctic sea ice loss and global ocean warming, but the latter dominates over the former.

Wet-grassland breeding bird conservation in Germany: current status and future perspectives

The decline of wet-grassland breeding bird populations across Europe, and Germany more specifically, continues unabated. In an effort to address this ongoing issue, we conducted a Horizon Scanning survey to identify the current strengths, weaknesses, future opportunities, and threats for wet-grassland breeding bird conservation across both continental and Atlantic biogeographic regions in Germany. We conducted the survey in 2022 and targeted primarily the community of conservation practitioners. We structured the survey with nine simple questions to identify the profile of the participants and collect their expert opinions. Our results confirm established challenges for bird conservation and bring into the spotlight emerging opportunities and threats. Thus, we summarize here the results of this survey and provide recommendations to decision-makers and stakeholders to work collectively towards the recovery of wet-grassland breeding bird populations in Germany and preserve grassland biodiversity for future generations.

Distinct decadal modulation of Atlantic-Niño influence on ENSO

It is known that winter Atlantic-Niño events can induce the El Niño–Southern oscillation (ENSO) in the following winter with a lag of 1-year during one period. On the other hand, summer Atlantic-Niño events can lead to the ENSO in the subsequent winter with a half-year lag during another period. In this study, we investigate the distinct interdecadal modulation of the effect of the Atlantic-Niños on ENSO by analyzing observational reanalysis datasets. During the mid-twentieth century, the winter Atlantic-Niño exhibited increased intensity and extended westward due to warmer conditions in the tropical western Atlantic. As a result, convection occurred from the Amazon to the Atlantic, triggering an atmospheric teleconnection that led to trade wind discharging and equatorial Kelvin waves, ultimately contributing to the development of ENSO. In contrast, during late twentieth century, summer Atlantic-Niño events were closely linked to the South America low-level jet in boreal spring. This connection led to the formation of widespread and intense convection over the Amazon to the Atlantic region. Then, the Walker circulation was effectively modulated, subsequently triggering ENSO events. Further analysis revealed that the interdecadal modulation of the Atlantic–South America–Pacific mean state plays a crucial role in shaping the impact of Atlantic-Niños on ENSO by modifying not only the characteristics of the Atlantic-Niños but also ocean–atmospheric feedback process. Therefore, improving our understanding of the interdecadal modulation of the climatological mean state over the Pacific to Atlantic regions enables better anticipation of the interaction between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.