Region Northern Italy Research Articles

Private Car O-D Flow Estimation Based on Automated Vehicle Monitoring Data: Theoretical Issues and Empirical Evidence

Data on the daily activity of private cars form the basis of many studies in the field of transportation engineering. In the past, in order to obtain such data, a large number of collection techniques based on travel diaries and driver interviews were used. Telematics applied to vehicles and to a broad range of economic activities has opened up new opportunities for transportation engineers, allowing a significant increase in the volume and detail level of data collected. One of the options for obtaining information on the daily activity of private cars now consists of processing data from automated vehicle monitoring (AVM). Therefore, in this context, and in order to explore the opportunity offered by telematics, this paper presents a methodology for obtaining origin–destination flows through basic info extracted from AVM/floating car data (FCD). Then, the benefits of such a procedure are evaluated through its implementation in a real test case, i.e., the Veneto region in northern Italy where full-day AVM/FCD data were available with about 30,000 vehicles surveyed and more than 388,000 trips identified. Then, the goodness of the proposed methodology for O-D flow estimation is validated through assignment to the road network and comparison with traffic count data. Taking into account aspects of vehicle-sampling observations, this paper also points out issues related to sample representativeness, both in terms of daily activities and spatial coverage. A preliminary descriptive analysis of the O-D flows was carried out, and the analysis of the revealed trip patterns is presented.

Assessing Commuting Energy and Emissions Savings through Remote Working and Carpooling: Lessons from an Italian Region

Effective solutions are needed to decrease the greenhouse gases emissions of the transport sector, not only in terms of supply-side measures, but also including demand-side solutions. This paper focuses on the passenger demand related to daily commuting, either for work or study purposes. A bottom-up analysis is presented, which draws from detailed data for Lombardy, the most populous region in Northern Italy, to build an estimate of the annual energy consumption and emissions related to commuting. The potential of different measures to decrease emissions is evaluated, including the renovation of the vehicle stock, higher levels of remote working, and the deployment of carpooling schemes. The results show that the largest part of the current emissions from commuting is caused by car use, both due to its higher modal share and to the higher specific emissions, which are in turn also contributed by the low occupancy rates. The renewal of the current vehicle stock can lead to significant emission savings, thanks to both improved efficiency and higher shares of electrification. Remote working could also play a significant part, especially when it is applied to workers that face the longest commuting distances. Conversely, carpooling seems to be providing lower benefits, not so much because of lower effectiveness but more so because of constraints and barriers to its implementation.

Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. in Different Ready to Eat Foods from Large Retailers and Canteens over a 2-Year Period in Northern Italy.

This study aims to give an overview of the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. in 9727 samples (2996 for L. monocytogenes and 6731 for Salmonella spp.) from different categories of ready-to-eat (RTE) foods, collected over 2 years from 28 large retailers and 148 canteens in the regions of northern Italy. The RTE samples were classified into two groups according to the preparation methods: (i) multi-ingredient preparations consisting of fully cooked food ready for immediate consumption, or with minimal further handling before consumption (Group A), and (ii) multi-ingredient preparations consisting of cooked and uncooked food, or preparations consisting of only raw ingredients (Group B). L. monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. were investigated in both of these categories. The overall prevalence of L. monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. was 0.13% and 0.07%, respectively. More specifically, L. monocytogenes was found in 0.04% of 2442 analysed RTE food samples belonging to group A and in 0.54% of 554 samples belonging to group B. Furthermore, 0.03% of 5367 RTE food samples from group A and 0.21% of 1364 samples from group B tested positive for Salmonella spp. In conclusion, the results obtained in this study can provide a significant contribution to L. monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. risk analysis in RTE foods.

Guillain-barré syndrome and COVID-19: An observational multicenter study

Single cases and series of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) were reported during the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak worldwide. We aimed to evaluate the incidence and clinical features of GBS in a cohort of patients from two regions of northern Italy with the highest number of COVID-19 patients. GBS cases diagnosed in 12 referral hospitals in March and April 2020 were retrospectively collected. As a control population, GBS patients diagnosed in March and April 2019 in the same hospitals were considered. Incidence of GBS in March and April 2020 was 0.202/100,000 per month (estimated rate 2.43/100.000 per year; C.I. 0.140–0.282) versus 0.077/100.000 per month (estimated rate 0.93/100.000 per year; C.I.: 0.041–0.132) in March and April 2019 with a 2.6-fold increase. Estimated incidence of GBS in COVID-19 positive patients was 47.9/100,000 and in the COVID-19 positive hospitalized patients was 236/100,000. COVID-positive GBS were compared with COVID-negative patients and a higher frequency of demyelinating subtype (AIDP) (76.6% vs 35.3%; p. 0.005), a lower MRC sum score (26.33 +/− 18.31 vs 41.41 +/− 14.85; p 0.006) and more frequent admission to ICU (66.6% vs 17.6%; p 0.002) were observed. This study shows an increased incidence of GBS during the first COVID-19 wave in northern Italy. This might not be unexpected considering that GBS is unanimously considered a post-infectious disease with several new infectious agents even recently added as possible trigger for GBS, including Zika and Hepatitis E viruses. We suggested that a correlation might exist between the COVID-19 and the increase in GBS incidence.

COVID-19 and the Health Promoting School in Italy: Perspectives of educational leaders

Objective: International agencies report the importance of health promotion in planning educational strategies and school management in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to identify the benefits of using a Health Promoting School (HPS) approach to guide educational and school policy during the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, the main objectives and practices to be implemented, and the challenges likely to be faced. Design: A three-phase qualitative and participatory approach: (1) identification of study objectives and relevant data, (2) data collection through an online form using open-ended questions (14 participants), and (3) online meetings to analyse the findings and reach consensus (17 participants). Setting: Educational leaders from the HPS Network in the Lombardy region in northern Italy participated in the study. Method: Qualitative content analysis was undertaken. Answers were coded into meaningful units and then grouped under higher-order headings. Codes, subcategories, categories and themes were identified. Results: Results suggested high potentiality, significance and sustainability of the HPS model during the pandemic. Objectives and actions relevant to each HPS component were identified. Adaptations to content and methodology, timing, continuity and inequalities requiring specific forms of intervention were identified. Conclusion: This study sought to develop an HPS model relevant to implementation during the COVID-19 epidemic and identified specific lines of action during this challenging period.

Health Literacy Levels among Italian Students: Monitoring and Promotion at School.

Health literacy was identified as an important determinant of health, particularly for adolescents. However, more efforts are needed to monitor this construct and provide inputs for policy development. This study aims to: (a) Assess the validity and reliability of the Italian version of the Health Literacy for School-Aged Children (HLSAC-I); (b) Identify the health literacy levels among Italian students and compare them with other countries’ levels; and (c) Identify the associations between health literacy and multiple social determinants (social stratifiers, family, and school connectedness). Data came from the Health Behaviour School-Aged Children survey, carried out in the Lombardy region in northern Italy in 2018. A representative sample of 2,287 13- and 15-year-old Lombardian students was involved. The results support the validity and reliability of the HLSAC-I. A total of 18.7% of the sample reported low levels, and only 6.8% reported high levels. Italian students reported the lowest levels of health literacy compared with other countries. School connectedness and educational approach are the most relevant associated factors. This study confirms a school’s role in reducing inequalities and promoting health. It highlights the importance of monitoring health literacy and implementing health promotion policies at school through a whole-school approach.

Genetic and Non Genetic Hearing Loss and Associated Disabilities: An Epidemiological Survey in Emilia-Romagna Region.

Hearing loss is one of the most common congenital sensory disorders. It can be associated with several comorbidities, in particular developmental disabilities (DD). In Emilia-Romagna (ER), a region in Northern Italy, Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) provide the diagnostic framework and treatment for these conditions. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the prevalence of hearing loss, both isolated or in association with comorbidities, in the juvenile population. The study draws its data from the ER Childhood and Adolescent Neuropsychiatry Information System (SINPIAER), an Administrative Healthcare Database collecting the clinical data of all those who have attended CAMHS since 2010. The most frequent type of hearing loss was bilateral sensorineural hearing loss, which was present in 69–72% of the cases, while bilateral conductive hearing loss was the second most common type, ranging from 8 to 10%. Among DD, congenital malformations, mental retardation, visual impairment, and cerebral palsy were the most common. In particular, autism spectrum disorders show increasing incidence and prevalence among CAMHS users in ER region. In-depth knowledge of hearing loss epidemiology and related conditions, such as developmental disabilities, in the juvenile population is crucial for disease prevention, health planning, and resource allocation.

“In the Key of Loss”

Abstract This article addresses a particular example of the intersection of literature and cinema in the film Call Me By Your Name, made by Luca Guadagnino and based on the novel of the same title by André Aciman, and the themes of nostalgia and loss in the work of both. The film results from the encounter, in its production and in a large number of retrospective discussions, between the cosmopolitan writer André Aciman and the Italian director Luca Guadagnino who, while attentive to global issues such as the trans-Mediterranean migration which features in the film, is very much grounded in his home region of northern Italy. The (rather differently figured) Jewish and homosexual identities of the two protagonists in the novel and the film are also addressed.

COVID-19 and regional differences in the timeliness of hip-fracture surgery: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BackgroundIt is of great importance to examine the impact of the healthcare reorganization adopted to confront the COVID-19 pandemic on the quality of care provided to non-COVID-19 patients. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of the COVID-19 national lockdown (March 9, 2020) on the quality of care provided to patients with hip fracture (HF) in Piedmont and Emilia-Romagna, two large regions of northern Italy severely hit by the pandemic.MethodsWe calculated the percentage of HF patients undergoing surgery within 2 days of hospital admission. An interrupted time-series analysis was performed on weekly data from December 11, 2019 to June 9, 2020 (≈6 months), interrupting the series in the 2nd week of March. The same data observed the year before were included as a control time series with no “intervention” (lockdown) in the middle of the observation period.ResultsBefore the lockdown, 2-day surgery was 69.9% in Piedmont and 79.2% in Emilia-Romagna; after the lockdown, these proportions were equal to 69.8% (–0.1%) and 69.3% (–9.9%), respectively. While Piedmont did not experience any drop in the amount of surgery, Emilia-Romagna exhibited a significant decline at a weekly rate of –1.29% (95% CI [−1.71 to −0.88]). Divergent trend patterns in the two study regions reflect local differences in pandemic timing as well as in healthcare services capacity, management, and emergency preparedness.

Bedload transport and dune bedforms characteristics in sand-bed rivers supplying a retreating beach of the northern Adriatic Sea (Italy)

Study RegionThe coast of the Emilia-Romagna Region in northern Italy consists of about 210 km of sandy beaches that have been attracting tourists for decades. Since the 1980s, erosion processes resulted in a remarkable beach retreat, notwithstanding the construction of several protections works. Study FocusIn 2005–2006 and 2017–2020, 30 floods of two small rivers feeding the beaches of Ravenna, Fiumi Uniti and Savio, were monitored and bedload was measured with a Helly-Smith sampler. Riverbed bathymetric surveys were carried out after some selected floods to investigate the occurrence and geometry of alluvial bedforms.The dune migration method was also used to calculate bedload. Results provided by this method are very encouraging. New Hydrological insights for the RegionTo the authors knowledge, this field investigation on the bedload transport of small coastal rivers is the first one of this kind in the Adriatic and provides the regional land managers with a useful tool to predict the bedload yield for future scientifically based interventions, and hopefully successful, beach protection works.The bedload data indicate a higher variability of bedload for discharges lower than bankfull flow, whereas a stronger control of discharge is evident for larger floods. Though the bedload of the study rivers proved to be higher than in the largest river of the Region, it resulted rather low and witnesses sediment supply-limited conditions.

Strontium isotope evidence for Neanderthal and modern human mobility at the upper and middle palaeolithic site of Fumane Cave (Italy)

To investigate the mobility patterns of Neanderthals and modern humans in Europe during the Middle-to-Upper Palaeolithic transition period, we applied strontium isotope analysis to Neanderthal (n = 3) and modern human (n = 2) teeth recovered from the site of Fumane Cave in the Monti Lessini region of Northern Italy. We also measured a large number of environmental samples from the region, to establish a strontium ‘baseline’, and also micromammals (vole teeth) from the levels associated with the hominin teeth. We found that the modern humans and Neanderthals had similar strontium isotope values, and these values match the local baseline values we obtained for the site and the surrounding region. We conclude that both groups were utilizing the local mountainous region where Fumane Cave is situated, and likely the nearby Lessini highlands and Adige plains, and therefore the strontium evidence does not show differening mobility patterns between Neanderthals and modern humans at the Fumane site.

Decline in Overall Pulmonary Embolism-Related Mortality and Increasing Prevalence of Cancer-Associated Events in the Veneto Region (Italy), 2008-2019.

Despite evidence of ongoing epidemiological changes in deaths from venous thromboembolism in high-income countries, little recent information is available on the time trends in mortality related to pulmonary embolism (PE) as underlying or concomitant cause of death in Europe. We accessed the regional database of death certificates of Veneto Region (Northern Italy, population 4,900,000) from 2008 to 2019. We analyzed the trends in crude and age-adjusted annual rates of mortality related to PE (reported either as underlying cause or in any position in the death certificate) using Joinpoint regression; in the contribution of PE to mortality (proportionate mortality); and, using logistic regression, in the association between PE and cancer at death. Between 2008 and 2019, the annual age-standardized mortality rate related to PE in Veneto decreased from 20.7 to 12.6 deaths per 100,000 population for PE in any position of the death certificate, and from 4.6 to 2.2 deaths per 100,000 population for PE as underlying cause of death. PE-related proportionate mortality remained up to twice as high in women. The age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio for cancer in deaths with versus without PE constantly increased from 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88-1.16) in 2008 to 1.58 (95% CI: 1.35-1.83) in 2019. The descending trends in PE-related mortality reported for Europe up to 2015 for both sexes continued thereafter in this high-income region of Northern Italy. However, sex differences in proportionate mortality persist. The increasing strength in the association between cancer and PE may indicate a change in risk factor distribution, calling for tailored management practices in this patient group.

Applying a multiple exposures framework to explore complex spatial inequalities of Covid-19-related excess mortality in Lombardy region of Northern Italy

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Spatial inequalities of mortality rates caused by Covid-19 have been observed in many countries, including Italy. While such spatial inequalities may be influenced by a combination of multiple place-based factors, studies thus far have used only conventional multivariable regression approaches to explore spatial determinants of Covid-19-related mortality. METHODS: We use mortality data from all of 2020 and model excess mortality using the previous 5-year mortality average for each municipality in Italy’s Lombardy region. Using Bayesian profile regression (BPR), a non-parametric clustering algorithm, we fit 19 spatial covariates to identify clusters of municipalities with similar ‘spatial exposure profiles’ and explore which exposure profiles are associated with either a higher or lower adjusted risk of excess mortality during the pandemic year (2020). These 19 spatial covariates include six air pollutants and a variety of socio-demographic factors, land use indicators, and health facility contextual information. RESULTS:BPR resulted in 23 clusters of exposure profiles. Controlling for spatial autocorrelation and health protective agency, we find that the highest risk cluster, located in the sparsely populated southern sub-region of Pavia province, has the highest proportion of their population 65 years or older and is characterized with elevated ozone and SO2 air pollutant levels, and has relatively low access to health facilities. Clusters with elevated levels of three or more air pollutants exhibited significantly elevated excess mortality risk only if they were in densely populated urban areas, if the air pollutants appeared to be traffic-related, and if they were located further away from major capital cities of Lombardy provinces. CONCLUSIONS:Our results suggest a complex web of spatial determinants that interact to influence spatial inequalities of Covid-19-related excess mortality in Italy’s Lombardy region. Studies must apply a multiple exposures framework to help unravel the complex and multi-dimensional nature of spatial inequalities of Covid-19 impacts on public health. KEYWORDS: Covid-19, air pollution, inequalities, exposome

Preliminary suicide trends during the COVID-19 pandemic in Milan, Italy

Europe was the second most affected continent by the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, with Italy paying very high death tolls, especially in Lombardy, a region in Northern Italy. The pandemic profoundly impacted mental health and the world's rates of suicide since its outbreak. COVID-19-related suicide rates nonetheless followed a non-linear trend over the pandemic, decreasing after the COVID-19 outbreak, then raising during an extended follow-up period. Thus, we aimed to further assess the suicide rates in Lombardy. We carried out a retrospective analysis of all the autopsies performed in the year 2020 and within the first four months of the year 2021 through the database of the Institute of Forensic Medicine in Milan. In the year 2020, the recorded suicides decreased in comparison to 2016-2019 (21.19-22.97% of the autopsies), being 98 (18.08% out of 542 autopsies), while, in the first 4 months of the year 2021, 35 suicides were documented (185 autopsies, overall). Since the region of Lombardy was severely affected by COVID-19 since the early months of the year 2020, the extended retrospective follow-up allowed for firmer conclusions and insights about the need to extend the follow-up of COVID-19 pandemic beyond the first months after the outbreak, worldwide. This is with special emphasis towards the need to allocate the proper funds for mental health prevention for the general population as well as the most vulnerable ones, such as people with severe mental illness and caregivers, frontline health workers, and others bereaved by COVID-19.

Canine Circovirus in Foxes from Northern Italy: Where Did It All Begin?

Canine circovirus (CanineCV) is a recently identified virus affecting both domestic and wild carnivores, including foxes, sometimes in presence of severe clinical signs. Its circulation in wild animals can thus represent a potential threat for endangered species conservation and an infection source for dogs. Nevertheless, no data were available on its circulation in the Alps region of Northern Italy. In the present study, samples collected from 186 foxes in the period 2009–2020 from Valle d’Aosta and Veneto regions were tested using a real-time PCR assay, demonstrating a viral circulation of approximatively 2–5%, depending on the considered regions. Two complete or almost complete genome sequences were obtained, highlighting that the detected strains were part of a so defined “fox only” clade, which suggests that, despite common contact opportunities, Alps foxes are not involved in frequent transmission events to domestic dogs. Such genetic isolation could be at least partially attributed to some sort of independent evolution occurred in the foxes, leading to species barrier. Additionally, CanineCV strains in foxes from Italy were unexpectedly related to those previously identified in foxes from the United Kingdom and Scandinavian area. Combining the history of fox distribution in Europe since the last glacial maximum (LGM) with the viral history allowed us to speculate a long-standing coexistence between European canine circovirus and this host, justifying the peculiar geographic distribution and evolutionary paths of the fox infecting clade.

Integrating palaeo- and archaeobotanical data for a synthesis of the Italian fossil record of Lycopus (Lamiaceae, Mentheae)

Lycopus is a widespread herbaceous plant, currently part of European flora. Fossil remains of fruits (nutlets or mericarps) attributed to this genus are frequently found in European archaeological and palaeontological sites, being easily preserved in sedimentary deposits. In a worldwide context, the oldest fossils are from the early Oligocene (ca. 30 Ma) of West Siberia, but they become more common in Miocene (23.0–5.3 Ma) records, ranging from West Siberia to Central Europe. In the literature, the Oligocene and Miocene remains (plus a few Pliocene ones) were assigned to fossil-species, whereas the abundant Pliocene and Pleistocene occurrences (5–0.01 Ma) in Europe were mainly assigned to the extant species L. europaeus. The present work is conceived as the result of an ad hoc research team whose task was to revise and summarize the Italian fossil record of Lycopus, assembling palaeobotanical and archaeobotanical data. We herein report ca. 6000 Lycopus nutlets from 61 sites located in nine regions of Northern and Central Italy. Based on the available information on extant species, we detected nine morphological types of nutlets that can be used for the characterisation of fossils. Our analysis suggests that from 4 to 2.6 Ma a single taxon (L. cf. pliocenicus) with L. americanus-type of nutlets occurred in Italy. The first occurrence of the latter morphological type is from the early Oligocene of West Siberia. The available fossils mildly suggest that extant L. americanus could be the descendant of ancient Eurasian plants characterised by the L. americanus-type of nutlets, through expansion of their range to North America. Conversely, the abundant Italian records of the last 0.2 Ma, including remains from archaeological sites, are only referable to the Eurasian species L. europaeus.

FATTY ACID PROFILE AND ANTIOXIDANT CAPACITY OF ORYZA sativa L. (JAPÔNICA SUBSPECIES) MARKETED IN ITALY AND BRAZIL: A COMPARISON

Rice stands out as the most consumed cereal in the world because it is a source of vitamins, minerals, fiber, bioactive compounds, and unsaturated fatty acids. Based on this assumption, the objective of this work was to qualify and quantify fatty acids, in samples consisting of raw, integral, parboiled, and white rice marketed in southern Brazil (Vale do Itajaí) and the Vale do Pó region in northern Italy. The results of this work demonstrate that 95% of the total lipid content, in the respective rice typologies of both countries, is represented by palmitic, oleic, and linoleic acid. These results indicate that the technological processes influence the nutritional and functional quality of the rice grain in these countries. Regarding the content of total polyphenols, the maximum average value obtained was 477 g Eq g-1 for rice from both countries and the best results for antioxidant activity, using the Photoquem® method with methanolic extract, was 3.43 µM Eq Trolox g-1 for the Italian rice samples. These results indicate that the technological processes influence the nutritional and functional quality of rice grain from these countries.

Hydrological Effects on Seismic‐Noise Monitoring in Karstic Media

AbstractFluctuations in groundwater content may produce surface deformation and affect the elastic properties of the Earth’s crust. In this study, we evaluate the temporal variations of the Earth’s crust elastic properties (in the form of relative seismic‐velocity variations) in a tectonically active region in Northern Italy characterized by the presence of karst systems. In this area, GPS measurements already revealed hydrologically‐induced deformation, modulated by changes in groundwater storage. We study the relation of our seismological observations with the geodetic and hydrological results and identify the effects of groundwater‐content variations in the seismic‐velocity perturbations. Our results show that hydrologically‐induced changes in karstic media produce significant seismic‐velocity perturbations, therefore its role in tectonic‐stress adjustment studies must not be ignored. Depth sensitivity analysis of our results constrain the crustal perturbations to range between 500 and 3,500 m depth. Results from scattering imaging locate the crustal perturbations along the main local karst systems.

Assessing the potential of different satellite soil moisture products in landslide hazard assessment

With the development of remote sensing technology, satellite-based soil moisture estimates become more and more available, and the potential of using satellite soil moisture products in landslide hazard assessment has been widely recognized. However, to our knowledge, there is a lack of studies exploring the performance difference of various satellite soil moisture products for such an application. Therefore, this study aims to compare several state-of-the-art satellite soil moisture products on their potentials in landslide applications. The selected products include the ESA CCI soil moisture dataset, the SMAP Level-3 (L3), enhanced Level-3 (L3), Level-4 (L4) surface, and Level-4 (L4) root zone soil moisture datasets. Specifically, the completeness of different datasets is calculated to assess their applicability in practical applications. To investigate the relationship between the soil moisture and the commonly used rainfall information in landslide predictions, the correlation study of the satellite soil moisture with the antecedent cumulated rainfall is also carried out. In addition, to explore whether the satellite soil moisture can provide valuable information for landslide hazard assessment, infiltration events are identified based on the time series of satellite soil moisture, and the significance of event characteristics (such as event duration, soil moisture change, etc.) in landslide occurrence is then investigated with Bayesian analysis. This study is carried out in a landslide-prone area, the Emilia-Romagna region in northern Italy. Results show that the SMAP L4 product does not have any missing values, beneficial to the continuous monitoring of landslides. As for the correlation relationship between soil moisture and antecedent cumulated rainfall, the SMAP L4 product also has more rational spatial distribution of the Pearson correlation coefficients compared with other datasets, which can be better explained by the distribution of slope and TWI (topographic wetness index). Bayesian analysis on the infiltration events shows that our prior knowledge of the probability of landslide occurrence is better improved by using the ‘SMAP L4 root zone soil moisture’-derived infiltration events, indicating its greater potential to be used for landslide hazard assessment in the study region.

The iCOLT climate service: Seasonal predictions of irrigation for Emilia‐Romagna, Italy

AbstractEmilia‐Romagna is a region of Northern Italy whose land use is mainly devoted to agriculture, especially over the plain area. Since the region is characterized by summer water shortages and recurrent drought conditions, a summer irrigation water demand forecast system has been developed, operating both at regional and Land Reclamation and Irrigation Board levels. Remote sensing crop detection is used in combination with a soil water balance model as a monitoring tool in support to water management and to optimize the use of available water resources. These instruments are also integrated with operational calibrated probabilistic seasonal forecast products currently based on Copernicus Climate Services, in order to evaluate summer irrigation water needs in advance in support to decision‐making by water managers. Results obtained using this prediction system are characterized by a significant forecast skill. The sources of the predictability of this system are specifically evaluated, showing that the correct representation of crop geographical distribution is crucial for the ability of the system to capture spatial variability in irrigation demand. Furthermore, the system forecast skill is mostly due to the use of an empirical model to assess the hypodermic water table depth initialized by means of the observed meteorological data of the months before the beginning of the summer season. Finally, calibrated probabilistic seasonal predictions also contribute to a minor extent to the good performance of the system as a whole.