Circulation Regimes Research Articles

Seasonal Variability of the Ocean Circulation in Queen Charlotte Strait, British Columbia

ABSTRACT Queen Charlotte Strait (QCST) is a large marine area separating northern Vancouver Island from the British Columbia mainland. Although it is an important waterway connecting Queen Charlotte Sound with Johnstone Strait and eventually the Strait of Georgia, complex dynamics in QCST, including tides, surface winds, river runoffs, and coastal currents, are yet understudied. In this numerical study, a high-resolution (up to approximately 10 m in the horizontal) model was developed for QCST and adjacent areas to investigate the circulation in the strait, using the unstructured grid, Finite-Volume, primitive equation Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). Two operational larger-scale models force the FVCOM model: the Coastal Ice Ocean Prediction System for the West coast (CIOPS-W) at the open ocean (one-way nesting), and the High-Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) at surface boundaries. Prevailing winds over QCST are southeasterly in winter and northwesterly in summer and the model demonstrated the capacity to reproduce the ocean circulation regimes in both seasons of 2019. Complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) and correlation analyses determined that surface winds play a dominant role on the variability of residual flow in QCST in the winter, while river runoffs strongly influence the variability during the summer. The analyses highlight that QCST is a complex estuarine system with significant seasonal variability rather than just a simple conduit between Queen Charlotte Sound and the Strait of Georgia.

Basin circulation affecting sediment partitioning in a fine-grained carbonate–siliciclastic, subaqueous clinoform: the Upper Jurassic–Lower Cretaceous Vaca Muerta Formation, Neuquén Basin, Argentina

Fine-grained sediments deposited under oxygen-deficient conditions are enriched in organic matter and hold considerable economic interest as unconventional reservoirs. The present analysis integrates sedimentological, ichnological and geochemical datasets to understand depositional processes in the Upper Jurassic–Lower Cretaceous Vaca Muerta Formation (Argentina), the most important economic unconventional play outside North America. For this purpose, cores from eight wells and one outcrop were examined. The succession comprises 13 facies associations corresponding to marginal-marine, basin, drift and slope environments, deposited in a mixed carbonate–siliciclastic, shelf-margin, subaqueous clinoform system. Estuarine circulation during warm and humid climates produced a stable stratification. Sediment delivery was dominated by pelagic processes in the bottomset, and hemipelagic processes and fluid mud flows in the foreset. However, the typical estuarine circulation changed to weakened estuarine or anti-estuarine during cool and arid climates, triggering wind- and thermohaline-driven contour (bottom) currents that reworked and oxygenated the complete clinoform system. The analysis suggests that distal–proximal trends are of lesser importance for the delineation of sedimentary environments in settings with contrasting basin circulation regimes and provides several insights to understand sediment partitioning in fine-grained clinoform systems. Supplementary material : The stratigraphic context of the Vaca Muerta Formation, an example of facies distribution in a well, trace-fossil descriptions, and X-ray diffraction and total organic carbon geochemical data are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.6294914

Under-ice observations by trawls and multi-frequency acoustics in the Central Arctic Ocean reveals abundance and composition of pelagic fauna

The rapid ongoing changes in the Central Arctic Ocean call for baseline information on the pelagic fauna. However, sampling for motile organisms which easily escape vertically towed nets is challenging. Here, we report the species composition and catch weight of pelagic fishes and larger zooplankton from 12 trawl hauls conducted in ice covered waters in the Central Arctic Ocean beyond the continental slopes in late summer. Combined trawl catches with acoustics data revealed low amounts of fish and zooplankton from the advective influenced slope region in the Nansen Basin in the south to the ice-covered deep Amundsen Basin in the north. Both arctic and subarctic-boreal species, including the ones considered as Atlantic expatriate species were found all the way to 87.5o N. We found three fish species (Boreogadus saida, Benthosema glaciale and Reinhardtius hippoglossoides), but the catch was limited to only seven individuals. Euphausiids, amphipods and gelatinous zooplankton dominated the catch weight in the Nansen Basin in the mesopelagic communities. Euphausiids were almost absent in the Amundsen Basin with copepods, amphipods, chaetognaths and gelatinous zooplankton dominating. We postulate asymmetric conditions in the pelagic ecosystems of the western and eastern Eurasian Basin caused by ice and ocean circulation regimes.

A complete CFD study on natural convection in the TRIGA Mark II reactor

This work describes the most complete and up-to-date thermal-hydraulics CFD model for studying the natural circulation regime within the entire TRIGA Mark II reactor at the University of Pavia. Building on preliminary works, this paper tackles the treatment and investigation of natural circulation in the reactor core and pool, highlighting the coupling between the two components. Despite the assumptions behind the model – such as the use of an unsteady RANS turbulence model and the treatment of the supporting grids as a porous media – the validation compared to experimental data shows quite a good agreement. The model is thus accurate enough to describe the natural convection regime within the core and the pool and highlight local phenomena, such as localised sub-cooled boiling and recirculation.

Evaluation of global teleconnections in CMIP6 climate projections using complex networks

Abstract. In climatological research, the evaluation of climate models is one of the central research subjects. As an expression of large-scale dynamical processes, global teleconnections play a major role in interannual to decadal climate variability. Their realistic representation is an indispensable requirement for the simulation of climate change, both natural and anthropogenic. Therefore, the evaluation of global teleconnections is of utmost importance when assessing the physical plausibility of climate projections. We present an application of the graph-theoretical analysis tool δ-MAPS, which constructs complex networks on the basis of spatio-temporal gridded data sets, here sea surface temperature and geopotential height at 500 hPa. Complex networks complement more traditional methods in the analysis of climate variability, like the classification of circulation regimes or empirical orthogonal functions, assuming a new non-linear perspective. While doing so, a number of technical tools and metrics, borrowed from different fields of data science, are implemented into the δ-MAPS framework in order to overcome specific challenges posed by our target problem. Those are trend empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), distance correlation and distance multicorrelation, and the structural similarity index. δ-MAPS is a two-stage algorithm. In the first place, it assembles grid cells with highly coherent temporal evolution into so-called domains. In a second step, the teleconnections between the domains are inferred by means of the non-linear distance correlation. We construct 2 unipartite and 1 bipartite network for 22 historical CMIP6 climate projections and 2 century-long coupled reanalyses (CERA-20C and 20CRv3). Potential non-stationarity is taken into account by the use of moving time windows. The networks derived from projection data are compared to those from reanalyses. Our results indicate that no single climate projection outperforms all others in every aspect of the evaluation. But there are indeed models which tend to perform better/worse in many aspects. Differences in model performance are generally low within the geopotential height unipartite networks but higher in sea surface temperature and most pronounced in the bipartite network representing the interaction between ocean and atmosphere.

Current Trends of the Regime of Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation over the River Basins in European Russia

Current Trends of the Regime of Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation over the River Basins in European Russia

Occurrence of winter atmospheric circulation regimes in Euro-Atlantic region and associated extreme weather anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

Occurrence of winter atmospheric circulation regimes in Euro-Atlantic region and associated extreme weather anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

Changes in volume and geometry of the Austre Dahlfonna glacier (Spitsbergen island) in 2008–2019

Previously published geodetic mass balance data indicate glacier shrinkage in the Barentsburg area of Svalbard since the beginning of the 20th century on the decadal time scale. However, observations for shorter time spans allowing one to compute the inter-annual variability of the mass balance are scarce. The study presents results of ground-based GNSS and the GPR surveys of the Austre Dahlfonna glacier (2 sq km) located on Spitsbergen island, south of the town of Barentsburg. According to the GPR survey of spring 2019 at 50 MHz frequency, the area-averaged ice thickness was equal to 82 m, while the maximum was 170 m. The results confirm the polythermal structure of the glacier, with a layer of underlying temperate ice. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the area of Austre Dahlfonna has halved. By comparing the GNSS survey results (the end of the melt season of 2019) with the co-registered archived remote sensing data (ArcticDEM strip of 2013 and S0 Terrengmodell of 2008), it was computed that, within the last 12 years (2008–2019), Austre Dahlfonna lost 16 % of its volume, which corresponds to a geodetic mass balance of –12.05 ± 0.85 m w. e. The mass loss in 2008–2013 (5.22 ± 0.37 m w. e.) was lower than in 2013–2019 (6.83 ± 0.48 m w. e.), which is in agreement with the ongoing direct measurements on the neighboring Austre Grønfjordbreen glacier and with the archipelago-wide mass-balance patterns. We demonstrate that the less intensive glacier mass loss, which occurred in 2005–2012 and was detected previously for the whole archipelago, definitely took place in the Barentsburg area as well. This time interval is characterized by the prevalence of a negative NAO phase (65 % of recurrence), which may indicate more frequent intrusions of colder Arctic air masses. This fact proves that the mass-balance variability of the Barentsburg area glaciers is governed in time spans of 5–10 years by regional-scale factors, presumably by shifts in the atmospheric circulation regimes.

Convolutional modelling of epidemics

Traditional deterministic modeling of epidemics is usually based on a linear system of differential equations in which compartment transitions are proportional to their population, implicitly assuming an exponential process for leaving a compartment as happens in radioactive decay. Nonetheless, this assumption is quite unrealistic since it permits a class transition such as the passage from illness to recovery that does not depend on the time an individual got infected. This trouble significantly affects the time evolution of epidemy computed by these models. This paper describes a new deterministic epidemic model in which transitions among different population classes are described by a convolutional law connecting the input and output fluxes of each class. The new model guarantees that class changes always take place according to a realistic timing, which is defined by the impulse response function of that transition, avoiding model output fluxes by the exponential decay typical of previous models. The model contains five population compartments and can take into consideration healthy carriers and recovered-to-susceptible transition. The paper provides a complete mathematical description of the convolutional model and presents three sets of simulations that show its performance. A comparison with predictions of the SIR model is given. Outcomes of simulation of the COVID-19 pandemic are discussed which predicts the truly observed time changes of the dynamic case-fatality rate. The new model foresees the possibility of successive epidemic waves as well as the asymptotic instauration of a quasi-stationary regime of lower infection circulation that prevents a definite stopping of the epidemy. We show the existence of a quadrature function that formally solves the system of equations of the convolutive and the SIR models and whose asymptotic limit roughly matches the epidemic basic reproduction number.

ПРОСТРАНСТВЕННО-ВРЕМЕННАЯ ИЗМЕНЧИВОСТЬ ГИДРОФИЗИЧЕСКИХ И ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКИХ ХАРАКТЕРИСТИК ЦИРКУЛЯЦИИ ЧЕРНОГО МОРЯ ПРИ ДОМИНИРОВАНИИ ДВИЖЕНИЙ РАЗНЫХ МАСШТАБОВ

Simulation results of the Black Sea dynamics for two periods when the annual mean circulation corresponded to the basin-scale and eddy regimes (2011 and 2016) are considered in the paper. Numerical experiments are carried out using the MHI model and considering the realistic atmospheric forcing from SKIRON. The seasonal variability of dynamic and thermohaline fields, as well as the kinetic and available potential energy, and their conversion rates are estimated. According to the model data on the seasonal mean distribution of currents velocity, it is found that in 2011 the RIM Current is detected in all seasons, and the most intense mesoscale eddies developed on its periphery over the continental slope in the warm period of the year; in 2016, separate cyclonic jets in the area of the continental slope are observed in the northern and southwestern parts of the basin during cold seasons, and mesoscale eddies are propagated in the central part of the sea throughout the year. The change in the mean current kinetic energy is determined by the circulation regime: energy maxima are revealed in the spring of 2011 and in the winter of 2016, when the mean current was the most intense. The distribution of the mean available potential energy is predominantly seasonal, the time variability is qualitatively similar for both modes and is provided by an increase in the density anomaly due to seawater heating. The eddy kinetic energy characterizing the mesoscale variability depends both on the circulation regime and on the season. In the spring 2011, the mean current and eddy kinetic energies are comparable; in 2016, the maximum eddy energy exceeded the mean current kinetic energy. In autumn and winter, for both calculations, the increase in eddy energy occurs due to the energy transfer from the wind and the mean current through the barotropic instability mechanism. In summer when wind activity weakens, in the basin-scale circulation mode, mesoscale variability is supported by commensurate contributions from barotropic and baroclinic instability; in the eddy circulation mode – mainly due to the conversion of available potential energy through baroclinic instability.

The potential impact of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from terrestrial vegetation on a Mediterranean area using two different emission models

Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) emitted from vegetation are precursors of ozone (O3), photochemical oxidants and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) in the lower troposphere. The interaction between urban polluted air plumes originated along the coasts of the Mediterranean basin with biogenic emission occurring inland contributes to the occurrence of exceedances of the air quality standards for O3 and fine suspended particles (PM10, PM2.5). This interaction is favoured by prevailing sea-land breeze circulation during persistent high-pressure conditions. The actual contribution of BVOC to photochemical pollution is still uncertain because the approaches used to assess the emissions from terrestrial vegetation are quite different. There is some evidence in literature that BVOC emissions from Mediterranean vegetation is not accurately estimated by models based on the plant functional types (PFT) approach. To investigate these issues, a Plant Specific Emission Model (PSEM) was developed and applied to the Campania region in Southern Italy, for which a detailed vegetation inventory has been built. BVOC emission maps estimated by PSEM were compared with those generated using a PFT methodology, evidencing significant differences. BVOC emissions from the two models were then used to predict the concentrations of precursors and products of photochemical smog pollution over the Gulf of Naples (Italy) using a chemical-transport model. Simulations were performed during a period characterised by high pressure conditions that favour an enhanced O3 production under a sea-breeze circulation regime. VOCs concentration profiles predicted by the two models were compared with field data collected over Mount Vesuvius using a tethered balloon coupled with a PTR-MS. The results proved the better capability of PSEM to predict the concentrations of many BVOCs, including isoprene and some of its primary oxidation products over the measuring site, and suggested the significant potential of BVOC emission to produce SOA over the gulf of Naples.

Record-breaking rainfall over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in August 2021: Sub-seasonal perspective and its predictability

An extremely heavy rainfall cluster was observed over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (MYR) in August 2021, breaking the historical record since 1981 and causing severe floods. The controlling circulation regime and possible predictability sources of the un-expected rainfall are still unclear, especially from a sub-seasonal perspective. Our results show that the successive heavy rainfall events in August 2021 had significant intraseasonal oscillations for 10–24 d and 30–60 d, and they were synergistically influenced by tropical and extra-tropical circulation regime. Above all, the East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern (EAP) turned into a negative phase in late July and maintained throughout August, providing favorable background conditions for the northward transport of tropical water vapor and the southward intrusion of cold air from mid-high latitudes. The 30–60-d oscillation of precipitation was dominated by the first mode of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO1, with 30–60-d period), which strengthened the tropical moisture transport, while the quasi-biweekly oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high and the anomalous mid-latitude cyclone of EAP intensified the precipitation on the scale of 10–24 d. In addition, the second mode of BSISO (BSISO2, with 10–30-d period) may also intensify the 10–24-d precipitation in late August. The forecast leading time of the S2S models for the persistent heavy rainfall in August 2021 was basically 1–2 weeks, while the EAP and BSISO1 were revealed as the main predictable sources of the abnormal rainfall events. These results highlight the importance of superposition of different intraseasonal oscillations in forming the extreme rainfall event and demonstrate a potential chance to enhance the prediction skill of extreme event if the ensemble members in S2S models could be reasonably selected according to their performances on key predictability sources.

Revealing recurrent regimes of mid-latitude atmospheric variability using novel machine learning method.

The low-frequency variability of the extratropical atmosphere involves hemispheric-scale recurring, often persistent, states known as teleconnection patterns or regimes, which can have a profound impact on predictability on intra-seasonal and longer timescales. However, reliable data-driven identification and dynamical representation of such states are still challenging problems in modeling the dynamics of the atmosphere. We present a new method, which allows us both to detect recurring regimes of atmospheric variability and to obtain dynamical variables serving as an embedding for these regimes. The method combines two approaches from nonlinear data analysis: partitioning a network of recurrent states with studying its properties by the recurrence quantification analysis and the kernel principal component analysis. We apply the method to study teleconnection patterns in a quasi-geostrophical model of atmospheric circulation over the extratropical hemisphere as well as to reanalysis data of geopotential height anomalies in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in the winter seasons from 1981 to the present. It is shown that the detected regimes as well as the obtained set of dynamical variables explain large-scale weather patterns, which are associated, in particular, with severe winters over Eurasia and North America. The method presented opens prospects for improving empirical modeling and long-term forecasting of large-scale atmospheric circulation regimes.

ANALYSIS OF THE LORENZ ENERGY CYCLE FOR DIFFERENT REGIMES OF THE BLACK SEA CIRCULATION

The Lorentz energy cycle components are calculated from numerically simulated data on the Black Sea dynamics for three regimes: climatic circulation, basin-scale (2011), and eddy (2016) circulations. The some common features have been found between climatic and realistic energy. The mean annual conversion of energy from mean motion to eddy motion is observed for all circulation regimes. The annual mean buoyancy work increases the mean current for all experiments, which indicates that the slope of the isopycnal surfaces remains such that the condition for converting the available potential energy into kinetic energy is realized. The qualitative difference is that the conversion of eddy kinetic energy into available potential energy is observed only for climatic circulation. For basin-scale circulation, the variability of the eddy kinetic energy is determined by the flux formed by the transformation of kinetic energy due to the barotropic instability of the mean current. For the eddy regime, the growth in the eddy kinetic energy is a result of the available potential energy conversion into kinetic energy due to baroclinic instability. The circulation regime, as well as the qualitative and quantitative difference in the magnitudes and directions of energy conversion, are primarily associated with atmospheric forcing.

The northern Adriatic circulation regimes in the future winter climate

The northern Adriatic circulation regimes in the future winter climate

East Siberian Sea: Interannual heterogeneity of the suspended particulate matter and its biogeochemical signature

The East Siberian Sea (ESS) is the largest, shallowest and most icebound Arctic marginal sea. It receives substantial input of terrigenous material and climate-vulnerable old organic carbon from both coastal erosion and rivers draining the extensive permafrost-covered watersheds. This study focuses on the interannual variability and spatial distribution of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the surface and bottom waters of the ESS during the ice-free period in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2008. We report on the composition and variability of particulate organic carbon (POC), total nitrogen (TN), POC/TN ratios, carbon and nitrogen isotopes (δ13C, δ15N) and provide estimates of the contribution of terrestrial organic carbon (terrOC) based on the δ13C isotopic values.The results show that interannual SPM distribution and elemental-isotopic characteristics of POC differ significantly between the western biogeochemical province (WBP; West of 165oE) and the eastern biogeochemical province (EBP; East of 165oE) of the ESS. The SPM mean concentration in the WBP is almost an order of magnitude higher than in the EBP. From west-to-east of the ESS, SPM tends to become more depleted in δ15N, while the δ13C becomes isotopically heavier. This trend can be explained by a shift in organic matter sources from terrigenous origin (erosion of the coastal ice complex and riverine POC) to becoming dominantly from marine plankton.The maximum contribution of terrOC to POC reached 99% in parts of the WBP, but accounts for as low as 1% in parts of the EBP. At the same time, the type of atmospheric circulation and its associated regime of both water circulation and ice transport control a displacement of the semi-stable biogeochemical border between WBP and EBP to the east or to the west if compared to its long-term average position near 165oE. Our multi-year investigation provides a robust observational basis for better understanding of the transport and fate of terrigenous material upon entering the ESS shelf waters. Our results also provide deeper insights into the interaction in the land-shelf sea system of the largest shelf sea system of the World Ocean, the East Siberian Arctic Shelf system.

Measuring “Weather Whiplash” Events in North America: A New Large‐Scale Regime Approach

AbstractThe term “weather whiplash” was recently coined to describe abrupt swings in weather conditions from one extreme to another, such as from a prolonged, frigid cold spell to anomalous warmth or from drought to heavy precipitation. These events are often highly disruptive to agriculture, ecosystems, and daily activities. In this study, we propose and demonstrate a novel metric to identify weather whiplash events (WWEs) and track their frequency over time. We define a WWE as a transition from one persistent continental‐scale circulation regime to another distinctly different pattern, as determined using an objective pattern clustering analysis called self‐organizing maps. We focus on the domain spanning North America and the eastern N. Pacific Ocean. A matrix of representative atmospheric patterns in 500‐hPa geopotential height anomalies is created from 72 years of daily fields. We analyze the occurrence of WWEs originating with long‐duration events (LDEs) (defined as lasting four or more days) in each pattern, as well as the associated extremes in temperature and precipitation. A WWE is detected when the pattern 2 days following a LDE is substantially different, measured using internal matrix distances and thresholds. Changes in WWE frequency are assessed objectively based on reanalysis and historical climate model simulations, and for the future using climate model projections. Temporal changes in the future under representative concentration pathway 8.5 forcing are more robust than those in recent decades. We find consistent increases in WWEs originating in patterns with an anomalously warm Arctic and decreases in cold‐Arctic patterns.

Linking maize yields in Veneto Italy, to large-scale atmospheric variability, circulation regimes and weather types

AbstractThis paper describes the relationships between large-scale modes of climate variability and its related weather types with the fluctuations in the yield of maize crops in Veneto, Italy. The teleconnections analysed in this work are the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO); the West African monsoon (WAM) and the Intertropical Front (ITF). Despite that these indices are not rigorously linked to one another, they result in being considerably related to atmospheric circulation regimes and associated weather types. They have an impact on temperature and precipitation patterns in Italy and on yields of maize crops in Veneto, a region located in northeast Italy. Yields are strongly affected by large-scale temperate and tropical variability directly through three main circulation regimes. Troughing weather regimes that produced below average temperatures depress yields over the entire Veneto region, as does the zonal regime that affects rainfall. Results confirm the relevance of large-scale modes and associated weather regimes and types on maize crop yields fluctuations in Veneto.

Bistability of the Atmospheric Circulation on TRAPPIST-1e

Using a 3D general circulation model, we demonstrate that a confirmed rocky exoplanet and a primary observational target, TRAPPIST-1e presents an interesting case of climate bistability. We find that the atmospheric circulation on TRAPPIST-1e can exist in two distinct regimes for a 1 bar nitrogen-dominated atmosphere. One is characterized by a single strong equatorial prograde jet and a large day–night temperature difference; the other is characterized by a pair of mid-latitude prograde jets and a relatively small day–night contrast. The circulation regime appears to be highly sensitive to the model setup, including initial and surface boundary conditions, as well as physical parameterizations of convection and cloud radiative effects. We focus on the emergence of the atmospheric circulation during the early stages of simulations and show that the regime bistability is associated with a delicate balance between the zonally asymmetric heating, mean overturning circulation, and mid-latitude baroclinic instability. The relative strength of these processes places the GCM simulations on different branches of the evolution of atmospheric dynamics. The resulting steady states of the two regimes have consistent differences in the amount of water content and clouds, affecting the water absorption bands as well as the continuum level in the transmission spectrum, although they are too small to be detected with current technology. Nevertheless, this regime bistability affects the surface temperature, especially on the night side of the planet, and presents an interesting case for understanding atmospheric dynamics and highlights uncertainty in 3D GCM results, motivating more multimodel studies.

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). I. Dry Cases—The Fellowship of the GCMs

With the commissioning of powerful, new-generation telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes, the first characterization of a high molecular weight atmosphere around a temperate rocky exoplanet is imminent. Atmospheric simulations and synthetic observables of target exoplanets are essential to prepare and interpret these observations. Here we report the results of the first part of the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) project, which compares 3D numerical simulations performed with four state-of-the-art global climate models (ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, Unified Model) for the potentially habitable target TRAPPIST-1e. In this first part, we present the results of dry atmospheric simulations. These simulations serve as a benchmark to test how radiative transfer, subgrid-scale mixing (dry turbulence and convection), and large-scale dynamics impact the climate of TRAPPIST-1e and consequently the transit spectroscopy signature as seen by JWST. To first order, the four models give results in good agreement. The intermodel spread in the global mean surface temperature amounts to 7 K (6 K) for the N2-dominated (CO2-dominated) atmosphere. The radiative fluxes are also remarkably similar (intermodel variations less than 5%), from the surface (1 bar) up to atmospheric pressures ∼5 mbar. Moderate differences between the models appear in the atmospheric circulation pattern (winds) and the (stratospheric) thermal structure. These differences arise between the models from (1) large-scale dynamics, because TRAPPIST-1e lies at the tipping point between two different circulation regimes (fast and Rhines rotators) in which the models can be alternatively trapped, and (2) parameterizations used in the upper atmosphere such as numerical damping.