Syrian Refugees Research Articles

Mental health trajectories among Syrian refugees in Norway: A longitudinal cohort study

Abstract Background Refugees encounter various risk factors that can affect their mental health throughout the migration process. However, while most studies focus on mental health challenges at the time of resettlement, only a few explore these changes over an extended period. This study aims to explore changes in mental health among Syrian refugees in Norway and to identify influencing factors. Methods This is a prospective cohort study using data from CHART and Integration for Health studies, which followed Syrian refugees granted settlement in Norway. Data collection took place in Lebanon between 2017-2018 (baseline), and at one- and four-years post-arrival in Norway. Assessments for anxiety/depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) were conducted using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL-10) and the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire, respectively. Mixed-effects logistic regression analyzed temporal changes, with results presented as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The study also explored the effect modification of outcomes by the following baseline factors: age, gender, education. Results A total of 132 participants were included in all three data collection points. There was a decrease in the proportion of participants reporting anxiety/depression (from 30% to 28%, OR 0.1, 95% CI 0.1 - 0.2) four years post-settlement. The proportion of participants reporting PTSD symptoms decreased one year after settlement (from 4% to 3%, OR 0.3, 95% CI 0.1 - 0.7), but increased to 4% four years after arrival, showing no improvement from baseline (OR 0.8, 95% CI 0.4 - 2.0). No interactions were observed between changes over time and baseline variables. Conclusions After four years in Norway, Syrian refugees reported improvement in anxiety/depression, but PTSD symptoms worsened. This highlights the need for ongoing support that extends beyond the initial phases of resettlement. Key messages • Refugees face various risk factors that affect their mental health throughout the migration process. • Ongoing mental health support for refugees is essential, beyond the initial resettlement phase.

Social participation and depression among resettled Syrian refugees: examining a moderated mediation of social support and bonding or bridging social capital

IntroductionAspects of social capital, including social participation and social support, are among the factors influencing refugee mental health after resettlement. However, the mechanisms by which these aspects interact with one another and affect mental health remain unclear. This study investigates whether social participation influences depressive symptoms via social support and whether this influence is more prominent for Syrian refugees participating primarily in coethnic (bonding) networks compared to cross-ethnic (bridging) networks during the early stages of resettlement.MethodsUsing data from a cohort of 464 Syrian refugees recently resettled in Sweden, a moderated mediation analysis was conducted with multigroup structural equation modelling to investigate the mediatory role of social support in the association between social participation and depressive symptoms as well as the moderating role of bonding networks (social participation with other Syrians) versus bridging networks (social participation with Swedes) in this relationship.ResultsFrequent social participation, compared to rare or no participation, was significantly associated with lower depressive symptoms, regardless of whether participation included a broad or limited range of activities. Social support only mediated this relationship for those with primarily bonding networks, indicating that the mediation itself was moderated by network type. While participating in both bridging and bonding networks was associated with lower depressive symptoms, bonding networks amplified the effect of social participation on depressive symptoms via increased social support, resulting in an overall twofold decrease in depressive symptoms compared to those with bridging networks.DiscussionThese findings indicate that the frequency of social participation may be a more important consideration for fostering mental well-being in recently resettled refugees than the specific types of activities. Furthermore, while both bonding and bridging social networks confer mental health benefits, access to coethnic networks in early resettlement appears to provide a particularly crucial source of social support.

Participative development of a culture-sensitive instrument to measure substance use in Syrian refugees

Abstract Background Rarely assessment instruments have been developed with end users such as refugees or those suffering from mental health conditions. Refugees’ experiences pre-, during, and post-flight are associated with various mental health problems including substance use disorders. Systematic reviews on the prevalence of substance use disorders in refugees worldwide show heterogeneous results. To address possible misclassification due to the lack of refugee-sensitive instruments we aimed to develop a refugee-sensitive instrument. Methods We applied a three-step triangulation study design. First, we conducted a three-stage delphi-process in 2019 and 2020. We recruited Syrian medical doctors for the study. Second, we conducted six focus group discussions with Syrian refugees and medical doctors. Third, we conducted expert checks with medical doctors and professionals providing psycho-social services for refugees. For all focus group discussions, audio recordings were translated and transcribed. Computer-assisted thematic analysis was performed applying a deductive approach with semantic coding. Results The refugee-sensitive instrument consists of seven domains of substance use: lifetime use of relevant types of substances, frequency, intensity, self-perception of, and situations posing a risk for substance use, ability to perform, craving, tolerance, and intentions to reduce or quit substance use. Discussion The instrument has been developed qualitatively, however, a limitation is that it could not be validated in a quantitative large sample of refugees. In spite of this limitation, this is - to the best of our knowledge - the first instrument that has been developed in a participatory approach together with end-users. Outlook The study suggests that developing assessment instruments in a participatory approach is feasible. Participatory development of assessment instruments is in line with the new paradigm of co-creation of mental health conditions management.

Chronic pain over time among Syrian refugees resettled in Norway

Abstract Background Chronic pain disproportionately impacts vulnerable groups such as migrants and refugees. This study investigates the long-term changes in chronic pain experienced by Syrian refugees in Norway and explores the factors influencing these changes. Methods This prospective cohort study used data from the CHART and Integration for Health studies, with data collection at three points: in Lebanon (Wave-1), one year (Wave-2), and four years post-arrival in Norway (Wave-3). All participants who completed surveys at these timepoints were included (n = 132). Chronic pain was measured by asking about pain lasting at least six months. Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to examine changes in prevalence and assess how age, gender, educational level (categorized as low, ≤9 years, and high, >9 years), and mental health symptoms (anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic disorders) affect these changes. Results Between Wave-1 and Wave-3, the proportion of participants reporting chronic pain increased from 31% to 53%, with an odds ratio of 3.6 (95% CI 2.2 - 5.8). There was an interaction between changes in chronic pain over time and participants’ educational level, where the increase in pain prevalence over time was more pronounced among participants with lower educational levels than higher levels. No modification with the other factors were detected. Conclusions The study observed an increase in the number of participants reporting chronic pain over time. Low educational level at baseline emerged as a useful indicator for identifying those at higher risk of chronic pain. Understanding this correlation can be crucial for guiding preventive strategies and optimizing resource allocation to assist those most vulnerable. Key messages • Chronic pain disproportionately impacts vulnerable groups such as refugees. • Refugees with lower education levels at baseline were more likely to experience chronic pain over time.

Multiple Views on Return Migration to Northern Syria

ABSTRACTMedia, humanitarian organisations and host governments have increasingly talked about returning refugees affected by a more than a decade‐long conflict in Syria. However, the northern Syria region does not offer adequate living conditions for return; this region is currently unfit for settlement, and it is impossible to attract Syrians to return to it, regardless of the lack of security and the political issues that many scholars have discussed. This study was conducted in early 2023 in two regions including four areas in northern Syria (Jarabulus, Azaz, Al‐Bab and Afrin) and three provinces in Türkiye (Istanbul, Gaziantep and Mersin). We compare the opinions of Syrian refugees in Türkiye and Syrians who had been internally displaced and who resettled in the northern region. The purpose of the comparison is to understand the views of both Syrians in Türkiye and in northern Syria regarding whether the region is attractive to them or not. However, the results confirm that people are not willing to return, as the push factors overcome the pull factors. The data collection among Türkiye‐based Syrians and northern Syria's residents enabled us to work with different opinion‐making processes: The assessment of today's Syrian services results from the direct witness of current dwellers and the views of Türkiye‐based refugees. Through a large‐scale survey, our study aims to identify the push factors that induce refugees to discount the possibility of returning to the northern Syrian region, including the lack of job opportunities and basic services such as potable water, electricity, fuel, Internet, adequate education and healthcare.

Legal Protection For Syrian Refugees In Jordan

This Study Aims To Clarify The Nature Of The Rights And Guarantees Provided By International Humanitarian Law To Syrian Refugees In Jordan. Study Employed Both The Legal Method And The Case Study Method. The Findings Indicate That Jordan Is Deeply Committed To Covenants Related To Refugee Rights, Particularly The International Covenant On Civil And Political Rights And The International Covenant On Economic, Social, And Cultural Rights. Jordan Has Ratified Most Of The Relevant Covenants And Agreements. Despite Not Being A Signatory To The 1951 Refugee Convention, Jordan Has Approached The Issue Of Syrian Refugees With A High Level Of Humanitarianism. The Jordanian Government Refers To Syrian Refugees As "Guests" Rather Than Refugees. The Study Recommends The Development Of A Clear And Specific National Strategy For Dealing With Refugees, Particularly If The Crisis Persists For Many Years. Additionally, It Emphasizes The Importance Of Considering The Unique Circumstances Of Asylum Seekers, Such As The Burden Of Proof And Their Psychological Condition.

Why do refugees live near to each other? A utility-based model for spatial segregation of Syrian refugees in Türkiye: 2016–2023 period

PurposeThe main purpose of this research is to understand and explain the clustering and/or segregation patterns of the rapid, massive and unexpected flow of Syrian refugees to Türkiye.Design/methodology/approachThe analytical framework we use consists of three parts. In the first stage, we created a two-group model in which utility is assumed to be a function of consumption and the proportion of the population belonging to the same group living in their neighborhood. We show that equilibrium utility can be reduced to a univariate function that is the population proportion of the group to which one belongs. Then, with the help of a Python-based simulation, we analyze the redistribution dynamics of the groups and clustering patterns. In the final stage, we compute the dissimilarity index to determine the degree of clustering.FindingsAlthough the dilution policy has been implemented, a relatively high spatial segregation of refugees still exists. The dissimilarity index we compute using the latest data shows that almost half of Syrians need to be displaced for a homogeneous geographical distribution.Research limitations/implicationsBy obtaining neighborhood-based housing data, it will be possible to conduct a more detailed analysis at the city level. This will improve policymakers' understanding of refugee policy at both local and national levels.Originality/valueIt is the first study in which a dissimilarity index is computed for Syrian refugees in Türkiye.

Chronic pain and use of painkillers, healthcare services and long-term impairment among Syrian refugees: a cross-sectional study

BackgroundThe global increase in forcibly displaced populations highlights the importance of understanding their health needs. Chronic pain is prevalent among refugees, poses significant personal and public health challenges, and complicates their integration into new home countries. Understanding refugees' pain post-migration and how it is being managed is crucial for ensuring adequate and timely interventions and fostering health equity. This paper explores the associations between pain levels and the use of painkillers, healthcare services, and long-term impairment among Syrian refugees with chronic pain, one year after their resettlement in Norway.MethodsThis cross-sectional study is based on survey data collected from 353 quota refugees in 2018–19, one year after resettlement in Norway. The primary outcomes were the use of painkillers, the use of healthcare services, and long-term impairment, according to reported chronic pain levels. Associations between these outcomes and chronic pain levels were studied using Poisson regression, adjusted by sociodemographic variables and trauma experience.ResultsOf the 353 adults included, 52% were women, and the median age was 36 years. A total of 5% reported very mild/mild, 10% moderate, and 12% strong/very strong chronic pain over the last four weeks. Significant associations were found between all chronic pain levels and use of non-prescription painkillers (adjusted relative risks (aRR) (95% CI)); mild (3.1 (2.0–4.7)), moderate (1.8 (1.1–2.8)), strong (1.7 (1.1–2.6)), and prescription painkillers; mild (4.6 (2.2–9.5)), moderate (5.6 (3.2–10.0)), strong (6.7 (3.9–11.3)), compared to those without chronic pain. Use of emergency rooms, specialist care, and hospitalization were significantly associated with strong chronic pain, with aRR (95% CI) of 2.0 (1.2–3.5), 3.9 (2.1–7.0) and 2.4 (1.3–4.4), respectively. Long-term impairment was strongly associated with chronic pain across all pain levels; mild (8.6 (5.6–13.49)), moderate (6.7 (4.3–10.5)) and strong (6.6 (4.3–10.4)).ConclusionDespite their young age, more than a quarter of the Syrian refugees in our study reported chronic pain one year after resettlement in Norway. High levels of pain were related to the use of medication, healthcare services, and long-term impairment. Understanding the dynamics of pain among refugees is crucial to ensure adequate and timely management.

A Study on the Relationship Between Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, Depression and Anxiety Symptoms and the Quality of Life of Syrian Refugees: Case Study for the Province of Kayseri.

The aim of this study is to investigate the factors related to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and anxiety mental disorders, as well as the quality of life of Syrian refugees and to examine the relationships between mental health disorders and the quality of life of Syrian refugees. Data were collected via face-to-face surveys with 613 adult Syrian refugees in an urban setting. Brislin's methodology was used for translating scale items, involving initial translation, back-translation and review by another professional translator. The study utilised the PTSD Scale, Beck Anxiety Scale, Depression Scale and Quality of Life Scale (QOLS). Descriptive, correlational and multivariate regression analysis were applied. Findings of correlational analysis indicate that PTSD levels among Syrian refugees are significantly related to gender, income level and employment. Depression levels are significantly associated with trauma history, healthcare service use, marital status and employment. Anxiety levels are significantly related to gender, trauma history, healthcare service use, employment and income. According to the findings of the regression analyses, the relationships between depression, quality of life and PTSD are complex. Meanwhile, anxiety decreases quality of life and increases PTSD. Quality of life moderates the relationship between depression and PTSD, as well as between anxiety and PTSD. The study concludes that the mental disorder levels of Syrian refugees, in terms of PTSD, depression and anxiety, are linked to their socio-demographic characteristics. These results highlight the importance of social, economic and cultural factors, healthcare and social services and the socio-demographic characteristics of the region where refugees have settled after displacement.

Integration of displaced students into the culturally and linguistically different school environment

AbstractThe rapid increase in the number of refugees arriving in the last decade and the discussion about the integration of Syrian refugees into Turkish society has received special attention. As an important tool of socialisation in childhood, the educational system and school environment need to be structured using refugee‐friendly and equity‐based methods to meet the needs and expectations of refugee children. Based on the perceptions of school leaders and teachers, this study attempts to understand the challenges faced by Syrian refugee students during their integration into the school environment in Turkey and explore the practices of educators in meeting these challenges. A phenomenological qualitative design explored educators' beliefs, thoughts and experiences regarding the education of Syrian refugee children in Turkish schools. Participants of this research were 21 educators including 4 principals, 3 assistant principals, and 14 teachers working in primary and secondary schools with Syrian refugee students. The results show that Syrian refugee students in Turkey encounter various challenges as they adjust socio‐culturally, psychologically, and academically within the school setting. Although some of the teachers apply culturally relevant methodologies unconsciously, there is a gap in professional training on this. Educators declare the need for more practical and inclusive approaches despite the efforts by the Ministry of National Education. Hence, this study suggests the necessity of targeted training programmes because the purpose is to better equip teachers with effective strategies of integration. Thus, it is recommended that gradual language education and mutual cultural activities are widely applied to make refugee students feel more comfortable and to successfully improve their academic achievement. Context and implications Rationale for the study This research is motivated by the precarious situation of Syrian refugee students residing in Turkey. Why the new findings matter The new findings underline large gaps in culturally responsive pedagogy among educators and call forth the need for all‐round, hands‐on training programmes to better facilitate the academic and socio‐cultural integration of refugee children. The findings also reveal a gap in the familiarity and application of culturally responsive pedagogy among educators, pointing to a need for professional development in this area. Implications for practitioners, researchers and policy makers This paper, therefore, calls for the practical training of practitioners in culturally responsive pedagogy to become more supportive of their refugee students. A call is sent out to the framers of the educational policies, which incorporates comprehensive professional development along with inclusive education policies that address the requirements of refugee children. Building on these findings, researchers might explore systems, strategies, and interventions to effectively integrate displaced students into the classroom. The study thus requires collaborative efforts in the creation of supportive school environments that juxtapose socio‐cultural and academic success for quality education among refugee students.

Education and socioeconomic status as predictors of refugee mental health: insights from a study of Jordan-based Syrian refugee sample.

The Syrian civil war is considered as the greatest humanitarian crisis in modern history, which has resulted in a major refugee crisis. A significant concern is the high prevalence of mental disorders such as depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among Syrian refugees. While the focus of most refugee mental health research has been pre-migration trauma, post-migration challenges and stressors, which can also be significant determinants of mental health, are often ignored. The purpose of this study was to assess mental health of Syrian refugees as compared to local Jordanians, and to examine sociodemographic factors and perceived stressors that are associated with mental distress among participants. This was a cross sectional study conducted in northern region of Jordan among Syrian refugee and Jordanian adults. We used the validated Arabic version of Afghan Symptoms Checklist (ASC) to assess mental distress among participants. A total of 929 subjects (43% Syrian refugees, 56% females) participated in this study. Disparities in education, monthly income, and health insurance were significant between Syrian refugees and Jordanians, p < 0.001. The mean score in ASC was significantly higher among Syrian refugees, particularly among refugee females (mean ASC score ± standard deviation: Syrian refugee females: 58.22 ± 1.13; Syrian refugee males: 45.31 ± 1.28; Jordanian females: 51.06 ± 0.91; Jordanian males: 46.45 ± 1.08, p = 0.002). Multivariable linear regression showed that the estimated difference in the mean of ASC score between males and females is 7.42 (p < 0.001), and the estimated mean difference between Syrian refugees and Jordanians is 2.76 (p = 0.019). Interestingly, the estimated mean of ASC scores for individuals with high education level is decreased by 4.18 as compared to individuals with lower education level (high school or less), p < 0.001. Education level was highly predictable of mental distress of Syrian refugees, particularly female refugees. Enhancing higher educational opportunities is proposed for improving socioeconomic status of refugees which might serve as a buffering strategy for mental distress among this vulnerable population.

An Analysis of the Religious Solidarity Discourses Regarding the Syrian Refugees in Türkiye

Following the outbreak of the civil war in Syria, a massive migration of Syrian nationals to Türkiye has been a significant phenomenon. This situation has become a problematic issue, as the massive presence of Syrian refugees in Türkiye has become an important part of the domestic political agenda. The politicization of the refugee issue has long since presented a duality of conflicting opinions among the Turkish society, whereas it has led to political debates between pro-government and opposition groups. In light of these developments, Turkish government elites have produced discourses of religious solidarity with the aim of providing tolerance and social acceptance for Syrian refugees and thus legitimizing the open door policy of the government toward these refugees. The aim of this study is to analyze and categorize the themes that constitute the basis of the discourses of religious solidarity regarding Syrian refugees in Türkiye. In this context, a second aim is to demonstrate how these themes have been welcomed in a positive manner by their adoption and recognition by Turkish society. To these aims, governmental discourses of religious solidarity and a sample consisting of 980 posts on the digital platform X have been analyzed by using the critical discourse analysis technique and have been categorized under two discursive themes, namely the ensar–muhacir analogy and the emphases on the Ottoman legacy. The conformity between these discourses and the government’s ideological orientation and the degree to which these discourses have been welcomed and adopted by the Turkish society have been discussed in detail.

Father-separation and well-being in forcibly displaced Syrian children

ABSTRACT Forcibly displaced children often face separation from their parents, particularly fathers. These children endure the hardships of war, displacement, and the loss of a key attachment figure. Despite the critical role of attachment in children’s well-being during periods of heightened stress, the impact of separation due to war and displacement has received little attention in empirical work. Findings from 1544 Syrian refugee children (M age = 10.97, SD = 2.27) living in informal settlements in Lebanon with their mothers (M age = 38.07, SD = 8.49), including 367 father-separated children, show that father-separated children experienced more war-related events and worse refugee environments. Structural equation modelling showed that beyond the direct relation of war exposure and quality of the refugee environment on well-being, father separation was uniquely related to more depressive symptoms and worse self-development, but not to anxiety, PTSD, or externalising problems in children. Maternal parenting did not explain these outcomes, though it had a protective function for children’s well-being.

Nomads of the Void: Unpacking the Enigmatic Lives and Survival of Syrian Dom Refugee Women in North Lebanon

Nomads of the Void: Unpacking the Enigmatic Lives and Survival of Syrian Dom Refugee Women in North Lebanon

Animating the Jesuit mission while using education as a form of humanitarian aid: A case-study on the Jesuit Refugee Service in Lebanon

The Jesuit Refugee Service provides education programmes as a form of humanitarian aid for Syrian refugees in Lebanon. The Jesuit Refugee Service is called to support the mission of the Jesuits and the vision that Saint Ignatius of Loyola had for the Society of Jesus and Jesuit schools. The Jesuit Refugee Service needs to have a distinct service that separates them from simply offering aid in the same manner as a secular Non-Government Organization. This case study on the work of one project by the Jesuit Refugee Service in the Bekaa Valley of Lebanon helps to illustrate how a Jesuit organization can animate the mission of the Jesuits and the Catholic Church while offering education as a form of humanitarian aid to non-Catholics.

Hidden scars: the persistent multifaceted health and psychosocial consequences for Syrian torture survivors.

Background: The impact on the physical and mental health of those who survived torture and their close circles in the Syrian regime's detention facilities remains under-studied.Objective: This qualitative study explored Syrian refugees' narrations of captivity and torture, and the consequences of such extreme traumatic events on their physical and psychosocial health.Method: Thirteen audio-recorded interviews were conducted in Arabic with Syrian refugees. Study participants were at least 19 years of age, resided in diverse urban areas of Jordan, had experienced captivity and torture in Syrian detention facilities, and voluntarily agreed to participate in the study. Participation was anonymous, only oral consent was required, and no incentives were provided to participants. Interviews were transcribed and translated into English by a team of researchers, followed by analysis of repetitive themes according to the narrative paradigm.Results: Analysis of interviews elicited three major themes: extreme traumatic experiences of torture, and its physical and psychosocial health consequences. The first major theme was divided into two sub-themes: torture experienced by the participants themselves, and torture experienced by participants' close circles. The second major theme, pertaining to physical health, was divided into two sub-themes: acute and chronic health sequelae. The third major theme, related to psychosocial health, was divided into four sub-themes: mental health symptomatology, impacts on professional life, impacts on interpersonal relationships, and social consequences.Conclusions: Torture experiences of Syrian refugees had adverse consequences for the physical and psychosocial health, functioning, and the overall well-being of survivors and their close circles. Interventions may seek to improve both the acute and chronic health consequences, as well as the mental health symptoms and associated impacts on livelihood, professional, and relationship dynamics. They should span clinical, legal, and advocacy spheres, given that a holistic approach may contribute immensely to survivors' healing process.

Development of prediction models of COVID-19 vaccine uptake among Lebanese and Syrians in a district of Beirut, Lebanon: a population-based study

IntroductionVaccines are essential to prevent infection and reduce the morbidity of infectious diseases. Previous evidence has shown that migrants and refugees are particularly vulnerable to exclusion and discrimination, and low...

Memory and displacement: Syrian-Kurdish refugees navigating the middle east, Israel, and the holocaust

Syrian refugees have become a significant minority in Germany over the past decade, with approximately one million now residing in the country. Most of them plan to stay and are eager to integrate into German society. Alongside practical challenges such as uncertain legal status, securing housing, finding employment, facing racism, and learning the German language, they must also navigate an ideological environment where common views on the Middle East, Islam, Israel, Jews, and the Holocaust differ significantly from those in their home country. This necessitates a certain degree of adaptation. Based on qualitative interviews with more than 200 Arab and Kurdish Syrian refugees, we examine self-perceptions, views on developments in the Middle East, and attitudes toward Jews. Significant differences emerged between Arab and Kurdish respondents. Especially among Syrian Kurds, there’s a noticeable openness to challenge antisemitic attitudes, often motivated by a rejection of Arab nationalist ideology and anti-Zionist propaganda. Syrian Kurds often perceive Jews and Israel more favorably than Arab Syrians. Their history of discrimination and oppression in Syria contributes to their rejection of hatred of Jews and Israel.

Intergenerational Power Shift and the Rise of Nonarranged Marriages Among Refugees

The experiences of war and refugee status can alter intrafamily dynamics, with implications for family formation, including marriage. We use the nationally representative Syrian Migrant Sample of the 2018 Turkey Demographic Health Survey (TDHS-S) to conduct a duration analysis of marriage outcomes among Syrian refugees in Turkey, tracking women throughout their residence in prewar Syria (before the conflict began in 2011), postwar Syria (after the conflict began but before arrival in Turkey), and Turkey. We find that early marriage was more prominent among refugees who were unmarried at the time of migration than among those married before migration; the mean marriage age dropped from 19.6 in prewar Syria to 19.1 in postwar Syria and 18.1 in Turkey. Using the TDHS-S and prewar Syrian surveys, we show that this finding aligns with the observed declines in household income and young women's opportunity cost of marriage. Our duration analysis also reveals a notable shift from traditional arranged marriages to more modern marriage forms among refugees in Turkey. An intergenerational power shift might drive the shift toward nonarranged marriages. After arrival in Turkey, wealth and employment of parents decline among refugees. In contrast, Syrian youth in Turkey have higher age-adjusted employment rates than in prewar Syria. Moreover, nonarranged marriages increase more among demographic groups with stronger intergenerational power shifts than among groups with weaker shifts.

Simulation of migration paths using agent-based modeling: The case of Syrian refugees en route to Turkey

The decade-long Syrian civil war has triggered a significant migration wave in the Middle East, with Turkey hosting the largest number of Syrian refugees. Our study introduces an agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate and predict migration paths in potential future refugee crises. The primary goal is to support aid organizations in planning the delivery of essential aid services during migration movements, offering insights that can be applied to various geographical areas and migration scenarios. While we use the Syrian refugee movement to Turkey as a case study, the model is intended as a flexible tool for analyzing migration patterns in future crises. The proposed ABM considers two characteristics of refugee groups: level of risk sensitivity and level of information. To enhance the model’s functionality, we have extended the A* algorithm with a cost metric to calculate the weighted average of distance and risk to a destination point. Our case study examines the crisis in southern Idlib through six scenarios, offering insights into refugee numbers, migration paths, camp occupancy rates, and heat maps of densely populated regions for each scenario. Validation is performed by comparing model outcomes with situation reports and official statements from the relevant period, demonstrating the proposed ABM’s potential for adaptation to other migration instances and further analysis under different parameters.