Referendum Campaign Research Articles

Learning from the other side: how social networks influence turnout in a referendum campaign

Interpersonal discussion is considered to be one of the most influential sources of opinion formation and behaviour. Yet, an unresolved puzzle remains within the literature: while some studies show that discussion with not like-minded citizens depresses political participation, other studies, on the contrary, indicate that the same type of interpersonal discussion can foster political engagement. In this study, we address this unresolved democratic dilemma for the first time in a context of direct democracy, by focussing on the campaign leading to the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum. Specifically, we pay particular attention to the interaction between network diversity, ambivalence, and political knowledge. The findings show that frequent interactions with not like-minded citizens increase turnout. The results based on regression models and structural equation modelling indicate that this positive effect is channelled mainly through political learning, since network diversity increases factual knowledge about the constitutional reform, which in turn is associated with an increase in turnout. We do not find a significant effect of network diversity on ambivalence, as predicted by previous studies. These findings have important implications for deliberative theories and campaign strategies.

NOT ANOTHER THING: FOUR REFERENDUMS AND A BREXIT VOTE

Should we agree with Tom Peck that David Cameron was the “Worst Prime Minister in a Hundred Years?” (2016). Joseph Butler once stated that “Everything is what it is, and not another thing” and that “Things and actions are what they are, and the consequences of them will be what they will be: why, then, should we desire to be deceived?” (Butler, 1841: Pr eface; 76). The United Kingdom (UK) is now faced with the claim that “Brexit means Brexit” – a vacuous phrase which palpably begs the question at issue. For the issue is: what is Brexit? and what type of Brexit was voted for? To say that “Brexit means Brex it” is whistling in the dark as a means to ward off unwelcome spirits and to conjure up an appearance of resolve. This paper argues that the referendum on whether the UK should stay in the European Union was held by the then Prime Minister, David Cameron, to satisfy internal party critics and the campaign conducted in a manner inspired by his previous success in holding and winning referendums. Further, it argues that it has unleashed a new doctrine: that of the referendum result as an expression of the undiluted ‘will of the people’. The holding of the referendum, its conduct and its result were direct results of complacency and hubris; what precisely a vote for Brexit means is unclear and ambiguous, and the populist belief that the result has to be upheld because it expresses the ‘will of the people’ is both cause and consequence of the referendum campaign and result.

KAMPANIA REFERENDALNA PREMIERA MATTEO RENZIEGO I PARTII DEMOKRATYCZNEJ PRZED REFERENDUM KONSTYTUCYJNYM Z 4 GRUDNIA 2016 ROKU

On December 4th 2016, the Italian people was called to confirm or reject the reform of the constitution approved by the parliament. This paper focuses on a topic of the most important events during the referendum campaign and their impact on the final result of the voting. The article describes the actions taken by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to gather as many votes as possible and the main opposition's objections to the expected reform. The results of the referendum and other important consequences of the defeat were presented, as well as Matteo Renzi's resignation from the position of the Italian prime minister after being defeated. The article intends to present the strong agitation generated by the discussion between constitutionalists, politicians, journalists and italian political scientists during the referendum campaign.

Analyzing polarization of social media users and news sites during political campaigns

Social media analysis is a fast growing research area aimed at extracting useful information from social networks. Recent years have seen a great interest from academic and business world in using social media to measure public opinion. This paper presents a methodology aimed at discovering the behavior of social network users and how news sites are used during political campaigns characterized by the rivalry of different factions. As a case study, we present an analysis on the constitutional referendum that was held in Italy on December 4, 2016. A first goal of the analysis was to study how Twitter users expressed their voting intentions about the referendum in the weeks before the voting day, so as to understand how the voting trends have evolved before the vote, e.g., if there have been changes in the voting intentions. According to our study, 48% of Twitter users were polarized toward no, 25% toward yes, and 27% had a neutral behavior. A second goal was to understand the effects of news sites on the referendum campaign. The analysis has shown that some news sites had a strong polarization toward yes (unita.tv, ilsole24ore.it and linkiesta.it), some others had a neutral position (lastampa.it, corriere.it, huffingtonpost.it and repubblica.it) and others were oriented toward no (ilfattoquotidiano.it, ilgiornale.it and beppegrillo.it).

Political participation on Facebook during Brexit

AbstractThis study investigates, over an 18-month period surrounding the 2016 Brexit referendum, the commenting activity of nearly 2 million Facebook users engaging with political news from British media or with the posts of referendum campaigns. We ask whether citizens’ engagement with political news on Facebook motivates their participation with political campaign posts, and we examine whether users commenting on campaign pages trend towards ideologically reinforcing media. Overall, we find comparatively low levels of commenting activity on the official referendum campaigns vis-à-vis the media, and the majority of users (70%) commented only once. Looking at the subset of users commenting on both page types (“cross-posters”), we identify a general spillover effect from media to campaign pages, suggesting a positive correlation between political interest and online participation on Facebook. Reverse spillover occurs immediately around and after the vote, with Remain cross-posters active on the Guardian while Leave cross-posters’ media engagement registers as more diffuse.

Communication in the Referendum Campaign as Exemplified by Free Broadcasts of the Entitled Entities on Polish Radio Lublin

The present article seeks to answer the question whether the fact that during the referendum campaign in 2015 the entitled entities had the opportunity to utilize free broadcast time in order to promote their activity affected the dominance of such content over the content concerning the issues raised in the referendum questions. Information on politics is obtained mainly from the media; the mediatization of politics is also allowed by Polish legislation, which provides for the opportunity to use free broadcasts on public media inter alia during referendum campaigns by entitled political entities. However, the possibility of using the free broadcasting time for the purposes other than stipulated in the law was not provided for. The research material was the free referendum broadcasts of the entitled entities, aired by Radio Lublin S.A., the method applied being the content analysis (quantitative and qualitative) . The main hypothesis, which assumed that the entitled entities used the allocated air time to promote themselves, inter alia through popularizing their names in the public space at the expense of the issues raised in the referendum questions, was positively verified as a result of research.

Communication in the Referendum Campaign as Exemplified by Free Broadcasts of the Entitled Entities on Polish Radio Lublin

<p><span lang="EN-US">The present article seeks to answer the question whether the fact that during the referendum campaign in 2015 the entitled entities had the opportunity to utilize free broadcast time in order to promote their activity affected the dominance of such content over the content concerning the issues raised in the referendum questions.</span><span lang="EN-US">Information on politics is obtained mainly from the media; the mediatization of politics is also allowed by Polish legislation, which provides for the opportunity to use free broadcasts on public media inter alia during referendum campaigns by entitled political entities. However, the possibility of using the free broadcasting time for the purposes other than stipulated in the law was not provided for.</span><span lang="EN-US">The research material was the free referendum broadcasts of the entitled entities, aired by Radio Lublin S.A., the method applied being the content analysis (quantitative and qualitative)</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span lang="EN-US">The main hypothesis, which assumed that the entitled entities used the allocated air time to promote themselves, inter alia through popularizing their names in the public space at the expense of the issues raised in the referendum questions, was positively verified as a result of research.</span></p>

National Votes with International Consequences. A Democratic Threat to Cooperation?

In recent years, there has been an increase in national votes – referendums and elections – whose outcomes not only affect domestic voters, but which potentially have significant negative consequences for citizens of foreign countries as well. Especially when such votes mandate a unilateral withdrawal from or non-compliance with mutually agreed international institutions, they present considerable challenges for international cooperation, democracy, and national sovereignty. How can stable international cooperation be maintained under the specter of election- or referendum-induced unilateral withdrawal or non-compliance? Is it democratic to allow such votes, even if many others who are affected by this decision do not get to vote? Is it undemocratic to not implement the wish of one people, if other parties to an international agreement are opposed? And is it legitimate for foreign policymakers to get involved in domestic election or referendum campaigns in an effort to try to avoid harm for their citizens, even if this conflicts with the norm of national sovereignty? Apart from these normative questions, practical questions about the effectiveness of different policy responses arise. This essay shows that in the context of such votes, it is impossible to maintain international cooperation, democratic principles and national sovereignty at the same time and discusses the challenges this presents for maintaining popular support for the institutions that underpin the contemporary global liberal world order.

The United Kingdom and EU enlargement in the Western Balkans: from ardent champion of expansion to Post-Brexit irrelevance

This article examines the United Kingdom’s approach to the question of European Union enlargement in the Western Balkans. It shows that while Britain had no traditional attachment to the region, it championed expansion as part of its long-standing aim to widen EU membership to prevent deeper political union. However, as immigration from the EU increased after the 2004 enlargement and a Eurosceptic Conservative-led government took charge in 2010, official support for enlargement began to decline. Britain ceded its place to Germany as the strongest supporter of EU expansion. Meanwhile, during the referendum campaign on EU membership, the prospect that future enlargement could further increase the number of migrants emerged as a central point of debate. Although this discussion was primarily focused on Turkey, the Western Balkans also played a part. Therefore, even had the United Kingdom decided to remain in the EU, there is an argument to be made that Britain could well have become more opposed towards future expansion. As it is, the decision to leave the EU (Brexit), has ensured that Britain has now all but lost its say over enlargement.

‘The island is full. Please don't come’: Narratives of austerity and migration in a UK citizenship class

In the lead up to, and aftermath of, the UK referendum on its membership of the European Union, issues relating to migration and entitlement dominated public debates. In a ruthless campaign, the ‘Leave’ camp exploited the implementation of years of austerity policies by explicitly correlating their negative effects with supposedly high migrant numbers. Examining the discourses of scarcity, austerity and deservingness which prevailed during the referendum campaign, this article discusses the way in which UK citizenship classes act as spaces for both the reproduction and subversion of these narratives. On the one hand, migrants in the classes reproduce discourses which scapegoat other migrants for the effects of austerity. On the other, however, powerful messages about the fundamental human right to migrate are also championed.

When who and how matter: explaining the success of referendums in Europe

This article aims to identify the institutional factors that make a referendum successful. This comparative analysis seeks to explain the success of top-down referendums organized in Europe between 2001 and 2013. It argues and tests for the main effect of three institutional factors (popularity of the initiator, size of parliamentary majority, and political cues during referendum campaigns) and controls for the type of referendum and voter turnout. The analysis uses data collected from referendums and electoral databases, public opinion surveys, and newspaper articles. Results show that referendums proposed by a large parliamentary majority or with clear messages from political parties during campaign are likely to be successful.

Political marketing in the times of big data

Academic considerations on the topic of political marketing very often boil down to discussing the political history of the 20th and 21st centuries, while failing to account for the significant changes in the range of instruments used to implement election strategies. However, the academic discussion about political marketing as an applied sub-discipline should take into account some mechanisms for accomplishing specified tasks. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to fill this gap and try to examine the influence of the tools based on big data on the broad picture of what we name marketing activities in the field of politics. We would like to present readers with our hypothesis that the profound changes in this area that were particularly noticeable in the election and referendum campaigns in 2016 may provide a premise to identify a new paradigm in the discussion on the use of marketing strategies in political communication. It would be based on the Internet combining the function of a communication channel and a source of data about voters. This information is next used for marketing purposes. It should be emphasized that this mechanism that has been used in the field of commercial activities for almost a decade, in the field of politics produces completely new and potentially dangerous consequences for citizens

Investigating Differences in Brexit-vote Among Local Authorities in the UK: An Ecological Study on Migration- and Economy-related Issues

During a non-binding referendum on the UK’s membership in the European Union in June 2016, 51.9% of UK voters voted in favour of leaving the European Union, also known as Brexit. However, the Local Authorities in the UK showed a wide variation in the referendum outcome. For 380 Local Authorities, the European Union referendum outcome was linked to data derived from the 2011 Census, creating a database to investigate associations between local factors and the referendum outcome. This ecological study formulated and tested hypotheses related to migration and economic issues as those two topics dominated the European Union referendum campaign. The results of multivariable generalised linear model analyses showed that the percentage of migrants who arrived between 2004 and 2011 in local areas was positively associated with the proportion of Leave-votes. This indicates that the relative number of recently arrived migrants might have been a key factor in voters’ decisions. Further research might focus on the origin of those migrants. Furthermore, in England, the percentage of lower educated was positively associated with the proportion of Leave-votes. This indicates that England was divided along educational lines. Moreover, this study also found a positive association between the proportion of elderly with self-reported poorer general health and the proportion of Leave-votes. Although investigating local health outcomes was beyond the study’s aim, this result indicates that health issues might be of importance in understanding local differences in European Union referendum outcomes. These findings provide us with a better understanding of the underlying factors of the Brexit-vote and directions for future research.

Brexit positions: neoliberalism, austerity and immigration—the (im)possibilities? of political revolution

The UK referendum on European Union membership exposed profound social and political divisions, rooted in the establishment of a neoliberal consensus that eclipsed the left and arguments against inequality, and intensified over several years of post-crisis austerity’s assault on the working poor, the disadvantaged and the immigrants. The narrow vote to leave confounded expectations on both sides of the referendum campaign, provoking a political crisis that has empowered a far right unlikely to address grievances, incited intense hostility between triumphant ‘leavers’ and dismayed ‘remainers’, and produced profound uncertainty about the future. This paper argues that while ‘Brexit’ has been characterized as a ‘people’s revolt’ against capitalist globalization, the decision to leave the EU has been aligned by a discourse of nativist nationalism and attempts to re-entrench an authoritarian Conservative hegemony; these attempts are, however, floundering which poses both opportunities and challenges for a resurgent parliamentary left and for radical grassroots politics going forward.

Referendum on Renzi: The 2016 Vote on the Italian Constitutional Revision

The 2016 constitutional referendum could have marked a new phase in Italian politics, producing a clear shift towards a majoritarian (and de facto presidential) democracy. But a substantial majority of voters rejected the reforms promoted by Matteo Renzi, leading to his resignation as Prime Minister. Once again, an attempt to redesign the Italian institutional framework failed due to party conflicts. This time, the referendum turned into a vote on Renzi himself. This article examines the background to the institutional reforms and the changing dynamics of the referendum campaign. Discussing the final outcome, it argues that this could produce a sort of U-turn in the long Italian transition.

Britain: Divorced from the EU and Disunited at Home?

The Brexit referendum brought the regional and social divisions of the UK in the open. It put unresolved constitutional questions on the agenda and had a deep impact on the British party system. The referendum campaign provided room for protest, fake news and scare mongering. In electoral terms, the referendum gave a voice to the left-behinds. It is open to question whether the high hopes the Brexiteers created for a newly "independent" Britain will find support in the development of the country's external relations, but also with regard to the unity of the UK.

Voters’ online information behaviour and response to campaign content during the Scottish referendum on independence

Research into the public’s motivations for, and barriers to, the use of referendum campaign sites was carried out in the final weeks before the 2014 vote on Scottish independence. As a qualitative study, drawing on 54 interactive, electronically-assisted interviews, where participants were observed and questioned as they searched for and used information on the websites and social media sites of the campaign groups, the results enable more precise causal inferences to be drawn about voters’ exposure to campaign sites. Results indicate participants value ‘facts’, what they perceive as authoritative voices, the capacity to compare campaign messages directly, infographics and concise, direct information. They are sceptical, particularly about celebrity contributions, preferring expert messages, and uncertain about their personal capacity to evaluate information they will use to make decisions. The authors set out a new model of levels of user engagement with political discourse during campaigns. Results have relevance for governments, as well as researchers in the fields of politics, communications and information management.

Performing Brexit: How a post-Brexit world is imagined outside the United Kingdom

Theresa May’s claim that ‘Brexit means Brexit’ demonstrates the malleability of the concept. The referendum campaign showed that ‘Brexit’ can be articulated to a variety of post-Brexit scenarios. While it is important to analyse how Brexit gives rise to contestation in the United Kingdom, Brexit is also constructed from the outside. Brexit signifies more than the technical complexities of the United Kingdom withdrawing from the European Union. It works both as a promise of a different future and performatively to establish a particular past. Brexit works as a frame with potential to shape perceptions in three domains. The first is identity. How does ‘Brexit’ shape national and European identities in distinct national environments? The second is how Brexit shapes understandings of geopolitical reality and influences conceptions of what is diplomatically possible. Third is the global economy. How does ‘Brexit’ work within intersubjective frames about the nature of global economic order?

Agenda control in EU referendum campaigns: The power of the anti‐EU side

AbstractEuropean Union (EU) referendums provide unique opportunities to study voters’ attitudes toward a distant level of governance. Scholars have long tried to understand whether EU referendum results reflect domestic (dis‐)satisfaction with the incumbent governments or actual attitudes toward the Union. Finding evidence supporting both domestic and European factors, the recent focus has thus turned to referendum campaigns. Recent studies emphasise the importance of the information provided to voters during these campaigns in order to analyse how domestic or European issues become salient in the minds of voters. These studies nonetheless overlook the asymmetrical political advantage in such campaigns. The broader literature on referendums and public opinion suggest that in a referendum, the ‘No’ side typically has the advantage since it can boost the public's fears by linking the proposal to unpopular issues. This article explores whether this dynamic applies to EU treaty ratification referendums. Does the anti‐EU treaty campaign have more advantage than the pro‐EU treaty campaign in these referendums? Campaign strategies in 11 EU treaty ratification referendums are analysed, providing a clear juxtaposition between pro‐treaty (‘Yes’) and anti‐treaty (‘No’) campaigns. Based on 140 interviews with campaigners in 11 referendums, a series of indicators on political setting and campaign characteristics, as well as an in‐depth case study of the 2012 Irish Fiscal Compact referendum, it is found that the anti‐treaty side indeed holds the advantage if it engages the debate. Nonetheless, the findings also show that this advantage is not unconditional. The underlying mechanism rests on the multidimensionality of the issue. The extent to which the referendum debate includes a large variety of ‘No’ campaign arguments correlates strongly with the campaigners’ perceived advantage/disadvantage, and the referendum results. When the ‘No’ side's arguments are limited (either through a single‐issue treaty or guarantees from the EU), this provides the ‘Yes’ side with a ‘cleaner’ agenda with which to work. Importantly, the detailed data demonstrate that the availability of arguments is important for the ‘Yes’ side as well. They tend to have the most advantage when they can tap into the economic costs of an anti‐EU vote. This analysis has implications for other kinds of EU referendums such as Brexit, non‐EU referendums such as independence referendums, and the future of European integration.

Policy, Office and Votes: Conservative MPs and the Brexit Referendum

The division within the Parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP) over Britain’s membership of the EU has been one of the most significant intra-party divisions in European political history. The 2016 Brexit referendum campaign offered a unique opportunity to consider legislative motivations as almost every MP declared a preference and frontbench MPs were free to back either side. This article uses logistic regression analysis in order to consider MPs’ motivations in terms of Muller and Strom’s policy, office and votes trichotomy. It is argued that all three motivations affected MPs decision making on the EU referendum. However, vote-seeking motivations were less influential than either policy or office-seeking.