Reference Scenario Research Articles

Commercial Supersonic Air Travel: Flight Routing and Demand Forecasting

There has been renewed interest in commercial supersonic air travel in recent years with new concepts currently being advertised for a potential comeback within the next decade. Current regulations do not permit overland operations for supersonic vehicles due to the sonic booms produced during flight. To capture a favorable market share, these vehicles would have to serve more routes than previously served while abiding with current regulations. This study presents a novel and comprehensive approach to overland-prohibited flight routing and route-specific demand forecasting for commercial supersonic air travel, in order to assess the expected market capture under nominal air traffic growth conditions. Results for a baseline reference scenario suggest that with efficient flight routing these vehicles could operate on many routes and capture 5 to 8% of the current demand for subsonic air travel. However, a sensitivity analysis of the top 10 routes showed that both flight routing and demand forecasting are notably sensible to the underlying assumptions and that results could vary considerably based on modeling inputs pertaining to both the aircraft and airline characteristics.

Micro-costing from healthcare professional's perspective and acceptability of cutaneous leishmaniasis diagnostic tools in Morocco: A mixed-methods study.

In Morocco, cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) represents a concern with three causative parasite species. Despite this, rapid diagnostic test (RDT) for CL is not part of the national control strategy. This study evaluates the acceptability and micro-costing of the CL Detect Rapid Test by Inbios International. The study was conducted from June 2019 to January 2020 and included 46 healthcare professionals from 40 primary healthcare centers and district labs. Data was collected by self-administered questionnaires and interviews and analysed using NVivo, Jamovi, and Python to generate a predictive model and sensitivity analysis by calculating the average Cost-Benefit Ratio for compared CL diagnostic scenarios. The exchange rate is 1 USD = 9.6 MAD (Moroccan Dirham) in November 2019. The CL-RDT received notable acceptance for its user-friendliness and time efficiency compared to traditional microscopy. Micro-costing data revealed that the average unit cost for microscopy is 15 MAD [7-31], whereas 75 MAD [52-131] for CL-RDT. Altogether, the diagnostic cost for microscopy is 115 MAD±4, marginally higher than the 102 MAD±2 for CL-RDT (p = 0,05). Sensitivity analysis identified the most cost-benefit scenarios based on a Cost-Benefit Ratio (CBR). The optimal approach involves using CL-RDT once at a primary healthcare centre (PHC) (CBR = 1.4), especially if the unitary cost is below 79 MAD. The second-best option is using CL-RDT once at a laboratory (CBR = 1.0), which is advantageous if priced under 54 MAD. However, using CL-RDT twice for the same lesion had a less favourable CBR of 0.6 and was only beneficial if priced below 09 MAD. The reference scenario was a single CL-RDT at the PHC followed by microscopy at a laboratory. In conclusion, the forthcoming CL-RDT, expected to feature enhanced sensitivity, is advocated for deployment in resource-limited endemic areas.

Optimal allocation of multiple energy storage in the integrated energy system of a coastal nearly zero energy community considering energy storage priorities

Energy storage technologies play a vital role in the low-carbon transition of the building energy sector. However, integrating multiple energy storage (MES) into integrated energy system (IES) in high-demand coastal communities remains a challenging task. This study proposes a novel regional IES that incorporates batteries, compressed air energy storage, and thermal energy storage for the simulated coastal community in Hong Kong; then developed the multi-objective optimization considering matching, economic, and environmental performance on MES capacity allocation with specially consideration of three energy management strategies under different energy storage priorities. The results show that all three storage priorities perform favorable outcomes across all objectives; compared to a reference scenario without storage, they achieve a relative net present value (NPVr) over 40 million HKD, a 0.29 improvement in matching performance, and over 2600 tCO2 in carbon emission reduction. Moreover, the renewable energy consumption rate exceeds 90 %, and the annual electricity import demand reduction rate exceeds 50 %. Sensitivity analysis highlights that larger energy storage capacities do not necessarily yield better outcomes, emphasizing the importance of synergistic interactions among multiple storage technologies. The presented energy system with MES and the optimal allocation approach herein may provide valuable insights for future energy planning in nearly-zero energy communities.

Forecasting some climate parameters of Türkiye using the SSP3-7.0 scenario for the years 2040–2059

This study employs the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIPs) and the Sixth phase of CMIPs (CMIP6) to unravel the multifaceted impacts of global climate change on climate of Türkiye. The CMIP6 data, fundamental to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, forms the basis for projecting future climate scenarios, specifically under the medium-high reference scenario SSP3-7. Utilizing a suite of global climate models, including the innovative Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach, this study combines predictions to enhance the precision climate projections of Türkiye. Historical data spanning from 1951 to 2020 were subjected to rigorous statistical analysis, including descriptive statistics and regression analysis. The findings reveal an unequivocal upward trajectory in Türkiye’s annual mean temperature, with an accelerated pace in recent decades. Despite a lack of a significant long-term trend in annual precipitation from 1951 to 2020, the rate of change in precipitation is accelerating, indicating potential future challenges. Projections for 2040-2059 under the SSP3-7.0 scenario indicate a non-uniform increase in mean temperature across Türkiye, with the southern and western regions facing the most significant impact. This warming trend poses imminent threats to agriculture, altering crop yields and increasing the risk of heat stress for livestock. Additionally, the projected decrease in precipitation, alongside a surge in hot days and tropical nights, underscores the urgency for adaptive measures. As Türkiye navigates the complex terrain of climate change, this study provides valuable insights, emphasizing the significance of robust climate modeling for informed decision-making. The results underscore the imminent challenges Türkiye faces and emphasize the critical importance of proactive climate action on both national and global fronts.

Human Health Impact Based on Adult European Consumers’ Dietary Exposure to Chemical Contaminants and Consumption of Unprocessed Red Meat, Processed Meat, and Legumes

AbstractIn this study we assessed the human health impact based on dietary trends for adult consumers in Europe. The risk of ten illnesses was estimated based on dietary exposure to inorganic arsenic, lead, cadmium, aflatoxin B1, and pesticides and consumption of unprocessed red meat, processed meat, and legumes (reference scenario (RS)) and a simulated alternative scenario of legumes consumption only (AS). Nutrient adequacy per each diet was estimated for vitamin B12, zinc, iron, and selenium. The burden of disease was quantified using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). The potential health risk and DALYs differ when comparing the burden due to exposure to chemical contaminants and the burden from the consumption of food, the former favoring the RS, while the latter favors the AS. The burden of disease due to exposure to chemical contaminants was between 672,410–1,215,875 DALYs in the RS, while in the AS it was between 964,132–1,084,229 DALYs. Consumption of processed meat added up to 1,813,338 DALYs, while legume intake averted 364,973 DALYs. However, the AS also indicated lower nutrient intakes potentially increasing the risk of nutrient inadequacy. A balanced diet made up of a variety of different foods is essential to prevent potentially higher dietary exposures to a range of chemical contaminants and assure adequate micronutrient intake. Greater importance should be given to food consumption trends and cross-referenced to existing and new natural toxin legislation and risk assessments in view of the ubiquitous and growing occurrence of heavy metals and mycotoxins in our food. The impacts of climate change, and the growing tendency toward plant-based diets are two factors which will drive further increases in human exposure to toxic contaminants. Graphical Abstract

Fracture density reconstruction using direct sampling multiple-point statistics and extreme value theory

The aim of this work is to present a methodology for the reconstruction of missing fracture density within highly fractured intervals, which can represent preferential fluid flow pathways. The lack of record can be very common due to the intense presence of fractures, dissolution processes, or data acquisition issues. The superposition of numerous fractures makes the definition of fracture surfaces impossible, as a consequence, modeling such zones is challenging. In order to address this issue, the usage of direct sampling multiple-point statistics to perform gap filling in well logs is demonstrated as an alternative to other techniques. It reproduces data patterns and provides several models representing uncertainty. The method was tested in intervals from a highly fractured well, by removing previously known fracture density data, and simulating different scenarios with direct sampling. Simulation results are compared to the observed data using cross-validation and continuous rank probability score. The reference scenario training data set consists in one well and two variables: fracture density and fracture occurrence. A sensitivity analysis is carried out considering additional variables, additional wells, different intervals, resampling with extremes, and other gap filling techniques. The auxiliary variable plays an important role in pattern matching, but adding wells and logs increases the complexity of the method without improving pattern retrieval. Best results are obtained applying extreme values theory for stochastic process with the enrichment of the fracture density data at the tail region, followed by resampling of the new values. The enriched data is used for the gap filling resulting in lower continuous rank probability score, and the achievement of extreme fracture density values.

Low-carbon transition paths and benefits for the power sector at city level: A case study in Zhengzhou, China

The power sector significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions, making its transition to low-carbon energy crucial for achieving carbon neutrality. Zhengzhou, recognized as one of the China's "National Central Cities", has a high energy demand. Its power sector, which is primarily reliant on coal, is responsible for half of the city's CO2 emissions. The low emissions analysis platform (LEAP) model serves as an effective tool for exploring the power sector's transition to low-carbon sources. However, studies on the combined reduction in air pollutants and CO2 at the city level are scarce. This study focuses on Zhengzhou's power sector, examining the power composition, coal usage, CO2 and air pollutant emissions, social costs, and employment effects across five scenarios using LEAP. The five scenarios are the business-as-usual scenario, the reference scenario, the carbon neutrality scenario, and two optimization scenarios with different carbon peak and carbon neutrality time. CO2 emissions will peak in 2030 at 34.6 Mt in the reference scenario, and in 2022 at 32.4 Mt in the carbon neutrality scenario. Emissions in the reference and carbon neutrality scenarios will decrease by 64.8% and 75.2%, respectively, from those in the business-as-usual scenario due to emission reduction strategies. In the carbon neutrality scenario, coal power reformation is the most significant measure, accounting for 45.7% of the total CO2 reduction compared to that in the business-as-usual scenario, followed by the integration of external electricity (17.8%) and solar energy (13.6%). This scenario also demonstrated a strong synergistic effect on reducing air pollutants and CO2 emissions. Although the carbon neutrality scenario incurs costs 60.4 billion yuan higher than those of the reference scenario, its CO2 mitigation cost is 66.1 yuan/t lower. This indicated that more rapid CO2 reduction, despite higher economic inputs, is justified by ambitious CO2 reduction goals and environmental benefits. Enhancing the use of renewable energy technologies for research and development to lower costs could increase the economic feasibility of the carbon neutrality scenario. In the two optimization scenarios, complete elimination of CO2 and air pollutant emissions is achieved by 2060, with all the electricity generated from renewable sources, although issues of uncertainty and stability need to be addressed. The study also highlights that renewable energy development will significantly boost employment, with an estimated 1.19 million jobs in 2060 in the carbon neutrality scenario. Finally, the paper concludes with a sensitivity analysis and offers policy recommendations for the power sector's low-carbon transition.

Carbon Assessment of a Wooden Single-Family Building—Focusing on Re-Used Building Products

Previous research has shown a lack of studies with comparisons between primary (virgin) and secondary (re-used) building materials, and their embodied emissions. The creation of different scenarios comparing the environmental impact of virgin vs. re-used materials is also motivated by the scarcity of raw materials in the world and the emergency of mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from buildings. The aim of this study was to investigate scenarios, including new vs. re-used building products, applying the LCA method for a wooden single-family building. The findings showed a 23% reduction potential for total released (positive) CO2e when comparing the Reference scenario with Scenario I, using re-used wooden-based materials. Further, Scenario II, using all re-used building materials except for installations, showed a 59% CO2e reduction potential compared to the Reference scenario. Finally, Scenario III, which assumes all re-used building products, showed a 92% decreased global warming potential (GWP) impact compared to the Reference scenario. However, when including biogenic carbon and benefits (A5 and D module), the Reference scenario, based on newly produced wooden building materials, has the largest negative GHG emissions. It can be concluded that the re-use of building products leads to significant carbon savings compared to using new building products.

Submarine Infrastructures and the International Legal Framework

The purpose of this paper is to identify weaknesses in the international framework for the protection of submarine cables beyond the sovereign waters of coastal States. To illustrate this, the paper uses a hypothetical case study of what a possible attack on a submarine cable may look like. First, it provides an overview over the applicable framework, with a particular focus on international peacekeeping law (ius contra bellum), the law of the sea, protection against piracy, and criminal prosecution under national criminal law. Various international conventions play a key role in relation to submarine cables. Particularly relevant are the Convention on Submarine Telegraph Cables of 1884, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of 1982, as well as the peacekeeping regulations of the United Nations Charter of 1949. After outlining the legal framework using the classical methods of treaty interpretation, as well as taking the scholarly literature on this subject into account, the example is subsumed under the various means of protection under international law. The peacekeeping law of the United Nations turns out to be ineffective because, on the one hand, an attack as described in the reference scenario does not necessarily constitute an armed attack in the sense of the UN Charter and therefore cannot be met with military countermeasures. On the other hand, an authorisation by the Security Council cannot be given quickly enough to counter the attack militarily. In addition to that, measures taken in the framework of the Law of the Sea Convention are ineffective due to the exclusive flag State jurisdiction which precludes other States from acting in this matter. An exception to this principle, namely universal jurisdiction to combat piracy, is unlikely to be applied in the context of an attack against a submarine cable. Finally, as result of the exclusive jurisdiction of the flag State and the poor implementation of the international obligations under the Law of the Sea Convention, national criminal law is also inadequate as a repressive means of protection.

Multiscale modeling of an entrained flow solar calciner for thermochemical energy storage via calcium looping

Calcium looping has been proposed as an alternative route addressing the intermittent nature of solar energy in terms of thermochemical energy storage, with the added benefit of CO2 capture. In this work, a multiscale approach aims to predict and optimize the performance of a pilot-scale solar calciner operating at realistic conditions, incorporating a diffusion–reaction model with multiphase flow considerations in a downer reactor. The model has been successfully validated with experimental data from the literature studying the effect of particle size on the observed rate, and with limestone decomposition experiments carried out in a lab -scale downer reactor. It was revealed that particles larger than 100 μm exhibit internal mass transport resistances, due to CO2 accumulation within the particle, whereas heat transport limitations are not expected in the operating conditions of interest. A reference scenario demonstrated 92 % limestone conversion at realistic operating conditions, feasible in concentrated solar power plants. The solar flux density on the reactor wall influences the efficiency of the system critically since heat loss to the environment leads to greater solar input. To tackle the low efficiency, a partially insulated, indirectly irradiated reactor was investigated: the efficiency increased from 8 % to 26 %, while integration in a Calcium-Looping system can further boost the efficiency to 34 %. This approach constitutes a basis for future scale-up considerations.

Investigation of Near Shading Losses in Photovoltaic Systems with PVsyst Software

Shading in photovoltaic systems is known to cause serious energy losses. However, predicting how much shading photovoltaic systems in living spaces will experience throughout the year and the resulting energy loss is not easy. In this study, the effects of near shading on the system efficiency of photovoltaic systems have been investigated with PVsyst software. Instead of standard shading elements, a mosque with a complex architecture was chosen to test the drawing capabilities of the software. A 20 kWp PV power plant is assumed to be installed in three different locations in the courtyard of the mosque. In Scenario-1, 2, and 3, the modules are located in the west, east, and north directions of the mosque, respectively. The annual energy production values obtained in these scenarios have been compared with the reference scenario without shading. According to the results, the annual production in the scenario without near shading was realized as 28.84 kWh. In Scenario-1, 2, and 3, the annual production was 20.43 kWh, 21.46 kWh, and 19.05 kWh, respectively. In the content of the study, sample geometries of shading for all scenarios are presented comparatively for critical dates. In addition, monthly energy production, performance ratio values, and loss diagrams have been presented comparatively.

System‐Wide Effects of Local Bed Disturbance on the Morphological Evolution of a Bifurcating Channel Network

AbstractDeltaic channel networks are important conduits for water and material supplies to the fluvial and coastal communities. However, increasing human interventions in river deltas have altered the topology and geometry of channel networks as well as their long‐term evolution. While the morphological evolution of a single channel has received extensive studies, the system‐wide morphological responses of channel networks to local disturbances remain largely unclear. Here we investigate the morphological responses of a bifurcating channel network subject to local disturbance of channel deepening due to dredging and sand mining through idealized simulations, and further compare the results with the reference scenarios of a single channel and theoretical analysis of the phase plane. The results show that the infilling of the local deepening is associated with the erosion of the entire branch, which also causes system‐wide effects on the siltation of the other branch. The morphological responses of the bifurcating channel network consist of a relatively short stage for the infilling of the local deepening followed by a relatively long stage for recovering the equilibrium configuration of the river bifurcation. The system‐wide effects of the local disturbance arise from the altered water surface slope and water partitioning downstream of the bifurcation due to the local deepening. Also, the prolonged recovery of the equilibrium configuration is consistent with theoretical analysis, which reveals a slow evolution of the bifurcation when approaching the equilibrium. Our results can help understand the long‐term morphological responses of large‐scale complex channel networks and inform water managements under increasing human interventions.

Impact of the Regulation Strategy on the Transient Behavior of a Brayton Heat Pump

High-temperature heat pumps are a key technology for enabling the complete integration of renewables into the power grid. Although these systems may come with several variants, Brayton heat pumps are gaining more and more interest because of the higher heat sink temperatures and the potential to leverage already existing components in the industry. Because these systems utilize renewable electricity to supply high-temperature heat, they are particularly suited for industry or energy storage applications, thus prompting the development of various demonstration plants to evaluate their performance and flexibility. Adapting to varying load conditions and swiftly responding to load adjustments represent crucial aspects for advancing such systems. In this context, this study delves into assessing the transient capabilities of Brayton heat pumps during thermal load management. A transient model of an emerging prototype is presented, comprising thermal and volume dynamics of the components. Furthermore, two reference scenarios are examined to assess the transient performance of the system, namely a thermal load alteration due to an abrupt change in the desired heat sink temperature and, secondly, to a sudden variation in the sink mass flow rate. Finally, two control methodologies—motor/compressor speed variation and fluid inventory control—are analyzed in the latter scenario, and a comparative analysis of their effectiveness is discussed. Results indicate that varying the compressor speed allows for a response time in the 8–20 min range for heat sink temperature regulation (first scenario). However, the regulation time is conditioned by the maximum thermal stress sustained by the heat exchangers. In the latter scenario, regulating the compressor speed shows a faster response time than the inventory control (2–5 min vs. 15 min). However, the inventory approach provides higher COPs in part-load conditions and better stability during the transient phase.

Geographic variation in projected US forest aboveground carbon responses to climate change and atmospheric deposition

Forest composition and ecosystem services are sensitive to anthropogenic pressures like climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S). Here we extend recent forest projections for the current cohort of trees in the contiguous US, characterizing potential changes in aboveground tree carbon at the county level in response to varying mean annual temperature, precipitation, and N and S deposition. We found that relative to a scenario with N and S deposition reduction and no climate change, greater climate change led generally to decreasing aboveground carbon (mean −7.5% under RCP4.5, −16% under RCP8.5). Keeping climate constant, reduced N deposition tended to lessen aboveground carbon (mean −7%), whereas reduced S deposition tended to increase aboveground carbon (+3%) by 2100. Through mid-century (2050), deposition was more important for predicting carbon responses except under the extreme climate scenarios (RCP8.5); but, by 2100, climate drivers generally outweighed deposition. While more than 70% of counties showed reductions in aboveground carbon relative to the reference scenario, these were not evenly distributed across the US. Counties in the Northwest and Northern Great Plains, and the northern parts of New England and the Midwest, primarily showed positive responses, while counties in the Southeast showed negative responses. Counties with greater initial biomass showed less negative responses to climate change while those which exhibited the greatest change in composition (>15%) had a 95% chance of losing carbon relative to a no-climate change scenario. This analysis highlights that declines in forest growth and survival due to increases in mean temperature and reductions in atmospheric N deposition are likely to outweigh positive impacts of reduced S deposition and potential increases in precipitation. These effects vary at the regional and county level, however, so forest managers must consider local rather than national dynamics to maximize forest carbon sinks in the future.

Impact of urbanism on source separation systems: A life cycle assessment

This study aims to assess the effect of different urban configuration regarding the choice of wastewater management of the district with source separation systems. Understanding this link can guide researchers, and also urban actors, in order to choose the best source separation solution to implement in a specific urban configuration.For this purpose, an integrated modelling approach was used to model the district with different types of urban planning, the water resources recovery facility (WRRF) and create a life cycle inventory to carry out a life cycle assessment (LCA). Six different urban configurations were tested with three different source separation scenarios and compared with an advanced WRRF with high level of nutrients and organic matter recovery.This study concludes that urine source separation is beneficial compared to advanced WWRF for all the urban configurations. Sewer construction was identified as the main contributor to environmental impact for the low-density configuration (pavilions), limiting the benefits of source separation in this urban settlement. Blackwater separation with a decentralised treatment is only beneficial for high densely populated area. Treatment of blackwater and greywater for reuse, has greater impact than reference scenario, in all urban configurations, due to high energy consumption for greywater treatment. Future research should therefore explore technical solutions for limiting the energy consumption.

Dynamic models for developing reference scenarios of energy system in the low-carbon transition

The proposed study is aimed at the development of dynamic input-output models in relation to energy development systems. The main task is to find optimal scenarios, defined as sequences of optimal balances between production and capital investment. These models are rooted in Leontief's conceptual concept of input-output, which emphasizes the timing of the introduction of new production systems. The article discusses the economic interpretation and mathematical conditions of intersectoral models, and examines their application to problems related to energy. The model uses the concept of balanced equilibrium growth, in which the ratio of consumption to net release is the same for all resources, and the reserve of at least one resource is fully utilized. The growth rate of the system is the most important parameter that determines the trajectory of balanced growth. Solving the system of inequalities yields balanced growth trajectories in which the dominant root and the associated vector of characteristics plays a key role. A balanced equilibrium growth rate has the properties of a minimax with the presence of a saddle point, which indicates its importance in achieving market equilibrium while preventing a reduction in inventories. The practical application of the model is described. The results of calculations of pessimistic, reference and optimistic scenarios of electricity production in the IPS of Ukraine are presented. Official statistical information and economic forecasts are used, and various restrictions are taken into account. The model aims to minimize the total cost of electricity generation while respecting environmental and operational constraints. The proposed model provides a comprehensive basis for understanding the dynamics of resource reserves, consumption and growth of electricity production of the IPS of Ukraine. It offers decision-makers a valuable tool to optimize electricity generation strategies, taking into account a range of scenarios and constraints, for the sustainable and cost-effective operation of the energy system. Keywords: Dynamic input-output models, optimal scenarios, balanced equilibrium growth, growth rate of the system.

Application of the Polynomial Chaos Expansion to the Uncertainty Propagation in Fault Transients in Nuclear Fusion Reactors: DTT TF Fast Current Discharge

Nuclear fusion reactors are composed of several complex components whose behavior may be not certain a priori. This uncertainty may have a significant impact on the evolution of fault transients in the machine, causing unexpected damage to its components. For this reason, a suitable method for the uncertainty propagation during those transients is required. The Monte Carlo method would be the reference option, but it is, in most of the cases, not applicable due to the large number of required, repeated simulations. In this context, the Polynomial Chaos Expansion has been considered as a valuable alternative. It allows us to create a surrogate model of the original one in terms of orthogonal polynomials. Then, the uncertainty quantification is performed repeatedly, relying on this much simpler and faster model. Using the fast current discharge in the Divertor Tokamak Test Toroidal Field (DTT TF) coils as a reference scenario, the following method has been applied: the uncertainty on the parameters of the Fast Discharge Unit (FDU) varistor disks is propagated to the simulated electrical and electromagnetic relevant effects. Eventually, two worst-case scenarios are analyzed from a thermal–hydraulic point of view with the 4C code, simulating a fast current discharge as a consequence of a coil quench. It has been demonstrated that the uncertainty on the inputs (varistor parameters) strongly propagates, leading to a wide range of possible scenarios in the case of accidental transients. This result underlines the necessity of taking into account and propagating all possible uncertainties in the design of a fusion reactor according to the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty approach. The uncertainty propagation from input data to electrical, electromagnetic, and thermal hydraulic results, using surrogate models, is the first of its kind in the field of the modeling of superconducting magnets for nuclear fusion applications.

Projections of maternal mortality ratios in Bangladesh.

The objective of this study was to predict when Bangladesh would achieve Sustainable Development Goal Target 3.1, which is to reduce the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 per 100 000 live births. We used secondary data from the 1993 to 2017 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys and other sources to project the MMR until 2060 under several scenario assumptions using an autoregressive moving average model with exogenous variables (ARMAX). Explanatory variables were selected based on the three delays model, and a reference forecast and four practical scenarios were simulated: Scenario 1 assumed a 4% annual increase in institutional deliveries, Scenario 2 followed the national goals, the reference forecast and Scenario 3 varied in terms of district-wise increase rates (Scenario 3 had a lower rate of increase), and Scenario 4 assumed minimal changes in institutional deliveries. Scenario 1 was the earliest, with an MMR of <70 per 100 000 live births in 2026. Scenario 2 would meet the target of <70 per 100 000 live births in 2029. The reference forecast had the third lowest MMR, with 69.78 per 100 000 live births (95% prediction intervals (PI) = 32.44 to 107.11) in 2049. Although the MMR for Scenario 3 decreased slowly, it would not reduce below 70 per 100 000 live births by 2060. Scenario 4, which had the highest MMR, also resulted in the MMR not reducing below 70 per 100 000 live births by 2060. To increase the institutional delivery rate and reduce the MMR, as in Scenarios 1 and 2, it is necessary to improve the institutional delivery rate in regions with low institutional delivery rates. Additionally, health facilities need to provide appropriate quality medical care to increase the institutional delivery rate and contribute to a decrease in the MMR, as shown by the results of this study.

A Business Case for Climate Neutrality in Pasture-Based Dairy Production Systems in Ireland: Evidence from Farm Zero C

Agriculture in Ireland is responsible for producing and exporting healthy, nutritional food pivotal for meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as global food security, economic development and sustainable communities. However, the agricultural sector, dominated by a large bovine population, faces the challenge of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to reach climate neutrality by 2050. The objective of the current study was to model the environmental and economic impact of simultaneously applying farm-level climate change mitigation strategies for a conventional grass-based dairy farm in Ireland. An average farm of 52 ha with a spring-calving herd of 93 was used as a reference scenario to create a business case. Partial budgeting was used to calculate the annual net benefit. A cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA) was used to model the reduction in GHG emissions, which was expressed as kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilogram of fat- and protein-corrected milk (kg CO2-eq/kg FPCM). The baseline for average emissions was 0.960 kg CO2-eq/kg FPCM. An average farm would reduce its annual emissions by 12% to 0.847 kg CO2-eq/kg FPCM in Scenario 1, where climate change mitigation strategies were applied on a minimal scale. For Scenario 2, the emissions are reduced by 36% to 0.614 kg CO2-eq/kg FPCM. In terms of annual savings on cash income, an increase of EUR 6634 and EUR 18,045 in net savings for the farm are realised in Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. The business case provides evidence that farms can move towards climate neutrality while still remaining economically sustainable.

Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution- Projection of the under-5 mortality attributable to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) in South Asia

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is a leading health risk factor for children under- 5 years, especially in developing countries. South Asia is a PM2.5 hotspot, where climate change, a potential factor affecting PM2.5 pollution, adds a major challenge. However, limited evidence is available on under-5 mortality attributable to PM2.5 under different climate change scenarios. This study aimed to project under-5 mortality attributable to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 under seven air pollution and climate change mitigation scenarios in South Asia. We used a concentration-risk function obtained from a previous review to project under-5 mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5. With a theoretical minimum risk exposure level of 2.4 μg/m3, this risk function was linked to gridded annual PM2.5 concentrations from atmospheric modeling to project under-5 mortality from 2010 to 2049 under different climate change mitigation scenarios. The scenarios were developed from the Aim/Endues global model based on end-of-pipe (removing the emission of air pollutants at the source, EoP) and 2 °C target measures. Our results showed that, in 2010–2014, about 306.8 thousand under-5 deaths attributable to PM2.5 occurred in South Asia under the Reference (business as usual) scenario. The number of deaths was projected to increase in 2045–2049 by 36.6% under the same scenario and 7.7% under the scenario where EoP measures would be partially implemented by developing countries (EoPmid), and was projected to decrease under other scenarios, with the most significant decrease (81.2%) under the scenario where EoP measures would be fully enhanced by all countries along with the measures to achieve 2 °C target (EoPmaxCCSBLD) across South Asia. Country-specific projections of under-5 mortality varied by country. The current emission control strategy would not be sufficient to reduce the number of deaths in South Asia. Robust climate change mitigation and air pollution control policy implementation is required.