Reduction Policies Research Articles

Digital government initiatives for sustainable innovations, digitalization, and emission reduction policies to balance conservation impact

AbstractThe rapid advancement of digital technologies in China, America, India, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Indonesia, Germany, Iran, South Korea, and Russia presents both significant opportunities and challenges for achieving sustainable development, particularly in balancing economic growth with environmental conservation. This study rigorously assesses the impact of digital government initiatives on sustainable innovations and emission reduction policies from 2002 to 2022, focusing on their ability to balance ecological and economic influences. By employing a sophisticated model that integrates second‐generation tests to confirm cross‐sectional dependence and gradient variation, this research ensures the precision of its findings. The analysis reveals that digitalization, clean energy adoption, and the utilization of these countries' abundant natural resources over this two‐decade period have contributed substantially to reducing their ecological footprints. However, the study also identifies structural discontinuities in the linear trends and intercepts due to the integration of these technologies. By incorporating variables such as e‐commerce, income from natural resources, economic growth, conservation‐friendly technologies, sustainable energy sources, and carbon dioxide emissions, the model provides a comprehensive evaluation. The results highlight a consistent decline in ecological impact driven by technological and economic advancements. The policy implications are clear: to sustain and enhance these positive trends, governments must continue to promote digitalization and innovation while carefully managing the integration of new technologies to prevent potential disruptions.

The impact of the carbon reduction policy effectiveness on energy companies' ESG performance

As one of the largest sources of carbon emissions, energy companies are motivated to improve their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance to attract investment and meet sustainability goals under the constraints of carbon reduction policies. However, it is currently unclear whether and how carbon reduction policies can help energy companies improve their ESG performance. Therefore, this paper comprehensively examines the impact of carbon reduction policies on the ESG performance of energy companies. First, we use the content analysis method to construct a novel index as a proxy of policy influence based on policy text, i.e., the carbon reduction policy effectiveness (CRPE) index. Then, we empirically examine the impact of CRPE on the ESG performance of energy companies using the panel data of Chinese A-share listed energy companies from 2010 to 2022. The empirical study shows that the CRPE can significantly improve the ESG performance of energy companies and remains robust to robustness tests. Mechanism tests show that it is due to the increase in executives with environmental backgrounds and executive compensation. For the three indicators (E, S, and G) of ESG performance, CRPE promotes environmental and social performance but reduces governance performance. Notably, the effect of CRPE on the ESG performance of clean energy companies and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is more significant. These findings enrich environmental economic theories and provide a reference for energy companies to promote ESG practices and the low-carbon transition, helping to accelerate the process of carbon neutrality.

Artificial-intelligence-driven shot reduction in quantum measurement

Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) provides a powerful solution for approximating molecular ground state energies by combining quantum circuits and classical computers. However, estimating probabilistic outcomes on quantum hardware requires repeated measurements (shots), incurring significant costs as accuracy increases. Optimizing shot allocation is thus critical for improving the efficiency of VQE. Current strategies rely heavily on hand-crafted heuristics requiring extensive expert knowledge. This paper proposes a reinforcement learning (RL)-based approach that automatically learns shot assignment policies to minimize total measurement shots while achieving convergence to the minimum of the energy expectation in VQE. The RL agent assigns measurement shots across VQE optimization iterations based on the progress of the optimization. This approach reduces VQE's dependence on static heuristics and human expertise. When the RL-enabled VQE is applied to a small molecule, a shot reduction policy is learned. The policy demonstrates transferability across systems and compatibility with other wavefunction Ansätze. In addition to these specific findings, this work highlights the potential of RL for automatically discovering efficient and scalable quantum optimization strategies.

The Promotion and Obstacles of the Double Reduction Policy for Educational Equity

China’s Double Reduction policy advances educational equity by reducing student workload and regulating extracurricular tutoring. The policy’s original intent is laudable, and some progress has been made in balancing educational resources and reducing the financial burden on families. Furthermore, this policy seeks to achieve a better study-life balance by reducing the academic burden so that students will have more time to develop their all-around qualities. However, its implementation has faced several challenges, including inconsistent policy implementation, regional disparities in education resources, chronic parental anxiety about education, and social pressure. These issues undermine the effectiveness of the policy. In this context, this essay comprehensively analyses the present state of the Double Reduction policy, identifies the primary challenges, and proposes corresponding recommendations for improvement. These recommendations include establishing a sound long-term evaluation mechanism, increasing investment in rural education, guiding parents to manage educational expectations, and strengthening the vocational training system. Continuously optimizing and improving the implementation of the policy, will ultimately promote balanced education in China and help students grow more holistically.

НАСТОЛНА КНИГА ПО СЪВРЕМЕННИ ПРОАКТИВНИ ПУБЛИЧНИ ПОЛИТИКИ ЗА НАМАЛЯВАНЕ НА БЕДНОСТТА В БЪЛГАРИЯ

Recently, the Publishing Complex - UNWE made available the interesting study of Dr. Ralitsa Veleva "Proactive Public Policies for Poverty Reduction". This monograph deserves attention mainly due to the still existing deficit in Bulgaria of complex analyses on the development and implementation of proactive public policies for poverty reduction. The work of the young author breaks the tradition in the Bulgarian social space to discuss extensively and in priority "welfare", and its antipode "poverty" - only as incidental touches and by the way. And it is brazenly "present on the table" of a significant part of the population, which lives this ingrained scarcity as its own social drama. What is clearly needed is, first, a professional identification of the level and trends of poverty in the country, and second, the development and implementation of credible radical instruments for its definite mitigation and containment.

Chinese Public Attitudes and Opinions on Health Policies During Public Health Emergencies: Sentiment and Topic Analysis.

By the end of 2021, the new wave of COVID-19 sparked by the Omicron variant spread rapidly due to its highly contagious nature, affecting more than 170 countries worldwide. Nucleic acid testing became the gold standard for diagnosing novel coronavirus infections. As of July 2022, numerous cities and regions in China have implemented regular nucleic acid testing policies, which have had a significant impact on socioeconomics and people's lives. This policy has garnered widespread attention on social media platforms. This study took the newly issued regular nucleic acid testing policy during the COVID-19 pandemic as an example to explore the sentiment responses and fluctuations of netizens toward new policies during public health emergencies. It aimed to propose strategies for managing public opinion on the internet and provide recommendations for policy making and public opinion control. We collected blog posts related to nucleic acid testing on Weibo from April 1, 2022, to July 31, 2022. We used the topic modeling technique latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) to identify the most common topics posted by users. We used Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) to calculate the sentiment score of each post. We used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to examine the relationship between sentiment scores and changes over time. We compared the differences in sentiment scores across various topics, as well as the changes in sentiment before and after the announcement of the nucleic acid price reduction policy (May 22) and the lifting of the lockdown policy in Shanghai (June 1). We collected a total of 463,566 Weibo posts, with an average of 3799.72 (SD 1296.06) posts published daily. The LDA topic extraction identified 8 topics, with the most numerous being the Shanghai outbreak, nucleic acid testing price, and transportation. The average sentiment score of the posts was 0.64 (SD 0.31), indicating a predominance of positive sentiment. For all topics, posts with positive sentiment consistently outnumbered those with negative sentiment (χ27=24,844.4, P<.001). The sentiment scores of posts related to "nucleic acid testing price" decreased after May 22 compared with before (t120=3.882, P<.001). Similarly, the sentiment scores of posts related to the "Shanghai outbreak" decreased after June 1 compared with before (t120=11.943, P<.001). During public health emergencies, the topics of public concern were diverse. Public sentiment toward the regular nucleic acid testing policy was generally positive, but fluctuations occurred following the announcement of key policies. To understand the primary concerns of the public, the government needs to monitor social media posts by citizens. By promptly sharing information on media platforms and engaging in effective communication, the government can bridge the information gap between the public and government agencies, fostering a positive public opinion environment.

A low-carbon supply chain pricing mechanism considering CSR under carbon cap-and-trade policy.

In the context of environmental deterioration and people's growing environmental protection awareness, governments or regions have put forward corresponding carbon emission reduction policies. Among them, the carbon trading mechanism, as an effective means to promote enterprises to implement emission reduction measures, plays a crucial role in regulating enterprise behavior and promoting social sustainable development. Since various industries and sectors support each other in social and economic development, it is more reasonable to study the carbon emission reduction optimization decisions of society and enterprises from the perspective of the supply chain. To achieve the carbon reduction target of the supply chain system, manufacturing enterprises usually need to incur additional costs to invest in emission reduction technologies, and retail enterprises also need to conduct low-carbon publicity to increase product market share. On one hand, considering the impact of the government's emission reduction constraints and consumers' low-carbon preferences, manufacturers will take corporate social responsibility (CSR) into consideration to enhance product competitiveness. On the other hand, smaller retailers are more concerned about being treated fairly than about their own profits due to the extra cost of low-carbon advertising. In this paper, considering the background of carbon trading, the manufacturer's CSR and retailer's fairness concern behavior are introduced into the decision-making process of the low-carbon supply chain (LCSC), and the relevant emission reduction decision-making model is constructed by using Stackelberg game theory and backward derivation method. Through comparative analysis of relevant parameters, members' profits and utilities, this paper focuses on the influence of CSR and fairness concerns on system decision-making. The results show that the optimal way for LCSC decision-making is to cooperate with fair-concerned retailers and manufacturers with CSR. When manufacturers consider social responsibility within a certain range and retailers bear part of the cost of social responsibility as followers, it can not only effectively improve the emission reduction level of the supply chain and the profits of each entity, but also help to increase the enthusiasm of each entity for carbon emission reduction and the overall social welfare.

Analysis of the Main Contradictions and Solutions in Achieving Educational Equity under China's "Double Reduction" Policy

This article aims to analyze the obstacles encountered by Chinese society in implementing the "double reduction" policy and the main contradictions in achieving educational equity, explore the new contradictions and problems brought by the "double reduction" policy to the education sector, and provide corresponding countermeasures for Chinese society, communities, families, and schools. It is hoped that this can improve the "double reduction" policy while eradicating the remaining irrationality in the Chinese education sector, enhance the level and quality of Chinese education, and develop an educational powerhouse. A comprehensive review was conducted through literature review, combined with knowledge in the fields of educational equity, educational policies, and comparative education. This article explores the four major contradictions behind the "double reduction policy" and proposes four guiding suggestions: balancing educational resources, optimizing the rationality of education and training, clarifying the responsibilities of families and schools, establishing a communication mechanism between families and schools, implementing a comprehensive evaluation system, strengthening the enrollment form of higher education, enhancing community resources, and improving community after-school services.

The green product investment policy of carbon emission reduction on a competition duopoly and dual-channel supply chain

Considering the increasing emphasis on sustainable development, global warming effects have received attention for properly managing enterprise activities such as manufacturing, energy utilisation, resource consumption, and carbon emissions. The effect of greenhouse gases generated by carbon emissions is the most significant. This study develops a dual-channel supply chain system that consists of duopoly manufacturers and two common retailers and investigates the effects of the pricing policy, the decision-maker’s mental accounting, and carbon emission reduction investments on the channel members’ decisions. We conduct a numerical experiment, demonstrating that investments in carbon emissions reduction decrease carbon emissions while enhancing market competitiveness and profitability. This is primarily because customers prefer green products and exhibit higher brand loyalty, which makes them willing to pay premium prices for environmentally friendly products. Additionally, the leader-follower model shows the dominant role of leaders in pricing and investment decisions, while the multichannel structure highlights the importance of channel synergy. This study contributes to the field by examining intra- and inter-channel competition issues among leader-follower channel members within a multi-channel structure. This analysis facilitates practical profit-maximisation decision-making.

Variability in youth coach concussion education requirements across states.

Youth sports coaches play a critical role in proper concussion recognition and management, reinforcing the need for coach concussion education. As of 2021, most states have statutory and policy measures mandating concussion education for coaches. In practice, these mandates have been enacted through state legislatures and their respective youth sport governing bodies. Prior studies have found significant variations in the contents of state-level concussion risk reduction policies and have raised questions about their specificity. To expand on previous analyses to provide an overview of youth sports coach concussion education, highlighting variations in state policies and discrepancies between state mandates and youth sport governing bodies. This report utilized qualitative content analysis to characterize and compare U.S. state and governing body concussion education requirements for youth sport coaches. State concussion statutes were identified via the National Conference of State Legislatures and Open States databases, and governing body handbooks/bylaws were obtained via their websites. Two researchers independently coded the policies, and discrepancies were resolved through consensus meetings with additional youth traumatic brain injury experts. We found significant variability in educational requirements and their implementation. A majority (68%; n = 34) of states require the completion of concussion education training for coaches. Notably, many states designate responsibility for enforcement and implementation of provisions to another party but just four state statutes delineate explicit consequences for noncompliance. Additionally, only 12 state statutes extend mandates to noninterscholastic sports, limiting their reach. In most cases, independent sanctioning authorities implement more stringent policies than the minimum acceptable standard established by state law. Our findings provide a coded data set of youth coach concussion laws and independent sanctioning authority guidelines that can be used in future research efforts. Further research investigating a relationship between the strength of coach concussion education policies and relevant youth and adolescent concussion-related metrics is required.

A scoping review on barriers and facilitators to harm reduction care among youth in British Columbia, Canada

BackgroundProgressive harm reduction policies have been implemented in British Columbia, Canada. However, youth who use drugs face barriers to receiving harm reduction care, resulting in increasing opioid-related hospitalizations and drug toxicity deaths. This scoping review collates peer-reviewed evidence to understand the barriers and facilitators faced by youth who use drugs when accessing harm reduction programming in British Columbia, Canada.MethodsThis scoping review entailed conducting a systematic search of relevant databases to identify relevant articles. Articles were included if they: (i) contained youth falling between the ages of 12 and 26 years old; (ii) explored accessibility, barriers, and/or facilitators to harm reduction care or related topics; (iii) were empirical research articles using primary data (i.e., reviews, grey literature, theoretical or conceptual papers, books, etc. were excluded); and (iv) were available in the English language, given the geographic focus on British Columbia.ResultsA total of 398 sources were identified and ultimately, data from 13 sources were charted and extracted. When investigating barriers to harm reduction care among youth, four themes emerged: self-stigma, service navigation, service delivery, and negative provider interactions. Furthermore, in exploring factors that facilitate harm reduction care for youth, four themes surfaced: ability to meet basic needs, positive provider interactions, social networks, and risk mitigation guidance.ConclusionsThe expansion of harm reduction services in 2016 did not fully address accessibility challenges faced by youth who use drugs. Barriers continue to hinder harm reduction engagement, while supportive networks, positive provider interactions, and the ability to meet basic needs facilitated sustained access. Tailored policy interventions rooted in equity are crucial to improving access to harm reduction services for youth who use drugs.

Stigma and Public Support for Treatment and Harm Reduction Policy in Response to the US Overdose Crisis

Stigma and Public Support for Treatment and Harm Reduction Policy in Response to the US Overdose Crisis

Measurement methods and influencing factors of carbon emissions from residents' travel

Residents' travel is a significant source of transport carbon emissions. Revealing the mechanisms behind travel-related carbon emissions can assist transportation departments in developing effective emission reduction policies. However, current research often focuses on specific aspects such as measurement accuracy or the impact of certain factors, lacking a comprehensive review and discussion. This study addresses the research gap by conducting a systematic literature review on measurement methods and influencing factors of carbon emissions from residents' travel. Through evaluating each method's applicability and limitations, we establish a systematic framework for measuring carbon emissions from residents' travel. By selecting appropriate measurement methods, detailed quantitative analysis of influencing factors is enabled, providing crucial data for subsequent emission reduction strategies. Influencing factors are categorized into four groups, including public infrastructure, road traffic facilities, land use and population, and traveler's socio-economic attributes, with a total of nine sub-factors across these categories. The relationship between each factor and carbon emissions is examined through statistical and qualitative analyses, establishing a robust quantitative analysis methodology for future research. Finally, a roadmap for reducing carbon emissions in residents' travel is presented.

The impact of rural health insurance on vulnerability to chronic poverty among rural residents in China: analysis using Probit and IVprobit models.

Poverty is a global problem, and combating it is a major governance issue worldwide. In China, poverty management efforts have shifted from eliminating absolute poverty to managing relative poverty. One of the most important tasks in managing relative poverty in the post-poverty reduction era is to prevent recurring poverty due to illness. Rural health insurance is an important method of preventing and mitigating disease risk and a key part of China's poverty reduction policy, including among rural residents. However, the mechanism by which basic health insurance alleviates vulnerability to poverty, the causal effect of rural health insurance on vulnerability to poverty, and differences based on having a second health insurance policy and by age and income have not been sufficiently explored. Therefore, this study examined the impact of rural health insurance on vulnerability to long-term poverty among rural residents in China. In addition, this study evaluated the impact of having a second health insurance policy and differences in the effects of rural health insurance by age and income. This study used data from the 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020 China Family Panel Studies. Household-related characteristics, such as finance, education, and healthcare, were retrieved from the household database; while data on healthcare expenditures, healthcare insurance, and personal-related characteristics were retrieved from the adult database. Robustness tests were conducted with Probit models, and endogeneity tests were conducted with IVprobit models. Vulnerability to poverty was significantly lower among residents with rural health insurance than those without any health insurance coverage, and this difference was observed across age and income groups. These findings were consistently robust and significant after controlling for endogeneity, considering sample selectivity, and eliminating measurement bias in the core variables. The findings indicate that rural health insurance is an important tool for poverty alleviation. The current results could effectively reduce the economic vulnerability of rural households facing health risks, ensuring broader economic security. Moreover, these findings provide policy references for managing relative poverty in China.

Integrated understanding of climate change and disaster risk for building resilience of cultural heritage sites

AbstractHeritage assets are vulnerable to climate change and disaster risks. However, existing literature has long been separating climate change from disaster risks, which were mainly considered as natural disasters. Recently, the framework of integrated understanding of climate change and disaster risk reduction in international policies started to be discussed in sustainable development discussion, while mentioning opportunities to build resilience of cultural heritage sites (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction 2020). But this framework is yet to be implemented and detailed in the context of heritage sites. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to analyze how the integrated understanding of climate change and disaster risk reduction policies can contribute to building climate resilience of cultural heritage sites by reviewing the key themes emerging from the literature. The question this paper answers are how can the integrated understanding of climate change and disaster risks reduction tackle barriers to the resilience of heritage sites? And what can be done to fill the gaps identified in the literature? To understand it, four elements from the literature are analyzed, including methodological contributions, temporalities, challenges and gaps, and opportunities. The findings of this review help in understanding the gap and interplay between science and policy in decision-making processes. We conclude by discussing the ways forward for the applicability of the framework in building resilience of cultural heritage sites.

Retailer experiences with tobacco sales bans: lessons from two early adopter jurisdictions

BackgroundBeverly Hills and Manhattan Beach, California, are the first two US cities to prohibit the sale of tobacco products, passing ordinances that went into effect on 1 January 2021. We...

Implementation of a community-based LC-UV drug checking service: promising preliminary findings on feasibility and validity

BackgroundThe increasing diversity of psychoactive substances on the unregulated drug market poses significant health, psychological, and social risks to people who use drugs (PWUD). To address these risks, various harm reduction (HR) policies have been implemented, including drug checking services (DCS). Many analytical methods are used for DCS. While qualitative methods (e.g., thin layer chromatography, spectroscopy) are easier to implement, they are not as accurate as quantitative methods (e.g., LC-UV, LC-MS). Some HR programmes have implemented high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with UV detection (LC-UV). This article presents the cross-validation of this quantitative method with a reference liquid chromatography coupled with high resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS) method.MethodsDrug samples were provided by PWUD to a DCS called DrugLab in Marseille, France. The samples were weighed and prepared through dissolution in methanol, followed by ultrasonic bathing. Samples were analysed onsite using LC-UV analysis. They were then subsequently analysed with the reference LC-HRMS method. The LC-UV instrument in DrugLab was calibrated after being purchased; analysis of standard solutions was routinely performed once a month and after maintenance operations. For the LC-HRMS instrument, calibration and quality control procedures followed European Medicines Agency (EMA) guidelines. Statistical analyses were conducted including Spearman correlation tests using IBM® SPSS® Statistics version 20.ResultsA total of 102 samples representing different product classes and cutting agents were cross-validated. Differences between both analyses methods for each molecule analysed were ≤ 20%, with significant correlations between both methods’ results for most substances. Notably, LC-HRMS provided lower concentration values for cocaine and acetaminophen, whereas it provided higher values for other substances. Correlations were significant for cocaine, ketamine, MDMA, heroin, amphetamine, caffeine, acetaminophen, and levamisole.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that the results provided by DrugLab were accurate and reliable, making LC-UV an adaptable, stable, and suitable analytical method for simple matrices like drugs in a DCS context. However, this cross validation does not guarantee accuracy over time. A proficiency test project in HR laboratories across France is currently under development in order to address potential drifts in LC-UV accuracy.

A systematic review of decarbonization pathway and modeling conception in iron and steel industry at micro-, meso-, and macro-levels.

To meet the carbon-neutral goal in 2050, an accelerated transition of decarbonization is needed in the iron and steel industry. Lots of decarbonization path models are recently being used to analyze the technology pathways, industrial structure adjustments, and short- or long-term policies for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Thus, systematic insight is required for better making sense of the status quo and differences in low-carbon transition pathways at different levels. This paper reviews the carbon emission reduction of steel production routes and summarizes the decarbonization models from micro-, meso-, and macro-level perspectives, respectively. First, we systematically analyze the capacity and potential of both available and emerging technologies in the iron and steel production process. Additionally, we conduct a theoretical analysis of the bottom-up models currently used as effective tools to assess decarbonization technology pathways. Subsequently, pathways and models in terms of industrial synergy are elaborated. Policy guidance and market support are explored to overcome the challenges of collaborative carbon reduction faced by global steel producers. The characteristics of top-down models for supporting carbon reduction are also discussed. Finally, gaps in the literature and future research agendas are identified. Advancing this research could enrich discussions on steel industry decarbonization and provide clearer assessments of modeling approaches. The results indicate that existing energy-saving technologies in the iron and steel industry have limited carbon reduction capacity. Significant reduction requires coordinated efforts with upstream and downstream industries, particularly in hydrogen and power sectors, along with financial support and favorable policies.

Effects of Social Capital on the Adoption of Green Production Technologies by Rice Farmers: Moderation Effects Based on Risk Preferences

In the context of global climate change and energy and resource scarcity, understanding the factors that influence the adoption of green production technology by rice farmers and promoting a transformation in agricultural practices towards low-carbon and environmentally friendly methods represent a crucial step towards achieving sustainable development. This study employs an ordered logit model to comprehensively explore the influence mechanism of social capital and risk preference within the adoption of green production technology by rice farmers. Research indicates that social capital can significantly and positively affect rice farmers’ uptake of green production technology. Among various dimensions, it can be seen that the role of social participation emerges as a particularly salient factor. The analysis of risk preference demonstrates that it exerts a negative moderating influence. The heterogeneity analysis results indicate that new-generation and part-time rice farmers prefer adopting new technologies if they possess higher social capital. In light of the findings above, it is recommended that the organizational support of cooperatives and collective action be reinforced; the use of digital technologies in agriculture should be increased; the livelihood changes of rice farmers be considered to meet their heterogeneous needs accurately; and the integration of carbon emission reduction policies and green production technologies be strengthened to promote the widespread adoption of green technologies among rice farmers.

Temporal Evolution Pathway and Forecasting of Non‐Fossil Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Under China's Carbon Peak Target: A Markov Switching AR and RNN Approach

ABSTRACTTo fulfil the commitments of the Paris Agreement, China will strive to achieve carbon peak (CP) by 2030. It is necessary to identify the evolution characteristics of China's carbon emissions and provide a scientific path prediction for the formulation of reasonable emission reduction policies and measures. This study summarises and predicts the pathway of China's carbon peak (CP) using carbon emission intensity (CEI) and the percentage of non‐fossil energy consumption (NEC) as indicators, and combining MSIH(3)‐AR(2) model and recurrent neural network. The results show that: (1) China's CEI experiences a ‘low decline regime’ (LDR), a ‘medium decline regime’ (MDR) and a ‘high decline regime’ (HDR), while the share of NEC goes through a ‘low fluctuation regime’ (LFR), a ‘medium growth regime’ (MGR) and a ‘high growth regime’ (HGR). (2) For CEI, the switching probability from MDR to the HDR is 74.88%, illustrating a substantial improvement. For NEC, the switching probability from MGR to HGR is 28.92%, but the probability of returning to MGR is 61.76%, indicating an adjustment. (3) By 2030, CEI will reach 0.9896 tons/100 million CNY, decreased by 66.35% compared with 2005. While the percentage of NEC will rise to 26.61%. Based on these, policy suggestions such as strengthening the top‐level design, upgrading energy mix and accelerating green technological changes are proposed to break the bottlenecks of reaching CP and further zero carbon goal. This study is expected to provide theoretical support and empirical evidence for the achievement CP in China, and to provide empirical references for promoting the ‘dual carbon’ process in other countries.