Reduction In Incidence Research Articles

Novel intervention based on an individualized bundle of care to decrease infection in kidney transplant recipients.

Infection remains a relevant complication after kidney transplantation (KT). A well-established strategy in modern medicine is the application of bundles of evidence-based practice in clinical settings. The objective of this study is to explore the application of a personalized bundle of measures aimed to reduce the incidence of infection in the first 12 months after KT. A single-center prospective cohort of 148 patients undergoing KT between February 2018 and September 2019 that received an individualized infection prevention strategy was compared to a preintervention cohort (n = 159). The bundle comprised a review of the patient's immunization history, infection risk by country of origin, screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), antimicrobial prophylaxis, and immunological assessment. Individualized recommendations were accordingly provided at a scheduled visit at day +30 after transplantation. The intervention cohort showed a higher compliance rate with the recommended vaccine schedule, screening for geographically restricted infections and LTBI, and intravenous immunoglobulin and vitamin D supplementation (p values <.001). The 1-year incidence rate of infection was lower in the intervention cohort (42.6% vs. 57.9%; p value =.037), as was the rate of infection-related hospitalization (17.6% vs. 32.1%; p value =.003) and the incidence of severe bacterial infection. There were no differences in graft rejection or mortality rates between groups. A multifaceted intervention, including a bundle of evidence-based practices, enhanced compliance with recommended preventive measures and was correlated with a reduction in the 12-month incidence of infection after KT.

Intervention portfolios analysis of Plasmodium vivax control in central China

BackgroundThe effects of a diverse spectrum of malaria interventions were evaluated through a deterministic Plasmodium vivax transmission model. This approach aimed to provide theoretical evidence of the performance of these interventions once implemented for achieving malaria elimination.MethodsAn integrated intervention portfolio, including mass drug administration, insecticide treatment, and untreated bed nets, was analyzed through modeling. Additionally, data-driven calibration was implemented to infer coverages that effectively reproduced historical malaria patterns in China from 1971 to 1983.ResultsMDA utilizing primaquine emerged as the most effective single intervention, achieving a 70% reduction in malaria incidence when implemented at full coverage. Furthermore, a strategic combination of MDA with primaquine, chloroquine, untreated bed nets, and seasonal insecticide treatments effectively eradicated malaria, attaining elimination at a coverage level of 70%. It was conclusively demonstrated that an integrated approach combining MDA and vector control measures is essential for the successful elimination of malaria.ConclusionHigh coverage of mass drug administration with primaquine and chloroquine before transmission was the key driver of the malaria decline in China from 1971 to 1983. The best-fit intervention coverage combinations derived from calibration are provided as a reference for malaria control in other countries.

Forecasting Disease Burden with a Dynamic Transmission Model of Human Papillomavirus and Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis in the United States.

Juvenile- and adult-onset recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (JORRP and AORRP) are rare but serious conditions that are caused by oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infections. The proliferation of wart-like growths throughout the respiratory tract can result in medical problems, including death. The current treatment scheme is surgery, though prevention of HPV infection through vaccination is available. A previously developed model for JORRP and AORRP was adapted to the United States using data on disease burden and HPV infection. The model was validated against post-vaccination reductions in disease and used to forecast the future burden of JORRP and AORRP, estimating the impact that HPV vaccination will have on these diseases. Between 2007 (the beginning of HPV vaccination in the US) and 2021, this model estimates that approximately 1393 lives, 22,867 Quality-Adjusted-Life-Years, and over USD 672 million in treatment costs have been saved by HPV vaccination. There is also a substantial reduction in JORRP and AORRP burden, with a 95% reduction in incidence by 2040. Moreover, between 2040 and 2121, the model predicts 3-11 total cases of HPV6/11-related JORRP in the US, and 36-267 total cases of HPV6/11-related AORRP. HPV vaccination in the United States has driven, and will continue to drive, substantial reductions in the public health and economic burden of HPV6/11-related JORRP and AORRP.

Adding Eye-Movement Desensitisation and Reprocessing (EMDR) Therapy to a Workforce Wellbeing Model

ABSTRACT Children and young people who live in out-of-home care (OoHC) can display aggressive behaviours when their emerging self-regulation and executive functioning systems are overwhelmed. Consequently, their carers can experience incidents that may cause some carers’ ongoing stress symptoms. Early intervention with occupational health supports is important; however, including a specific trauma treatment such as Eye-Movement Desensitisation and Reprocessing (EMDR) is unusual. EMDR supports the resolution of stress symptoms and helps carers promote a stable home environment. Stability contributes to calm home environments and incident reduction. The purpose of this mixed methods study was to better understand the inclusion of EMDR into a workforce wellbeing model and explore changes in incident numbers in houses, staff retention, and time-loss injury. Interviews with senior managers and focus groups with therapeutic practitioners from two Australian states were conducted. Descriptive statistics for administrative data were calculated after a quantitative audit. Several programs including EMDR and occupational health policies were working towards enhanced workplace safety. A reduction in the monthly average incident rate from 11.9 (2019–2020) to 6.9 (2022–2023) was identified. Offering an effective treatment to staff that promotes wellbeing, retention, and stability in care homes may be a critically important policy recommendation for organisations with staff at risk of traumatic incidents. IMPLICATIONS Eye -Movement Desensitisation and Reprocessing (EMDR) is an effective trauma therapy that works for residential out-of-home care staff. EMDR enhances carers’ emotional wellbeing and capacity when working with the young people in their care. More stable relationships between carers, children, and young people can lead to reductions in stressful workplace incidents and a more stable workforce.

Glucosamine and Cancer Incidence in Osteoarthritis: A Prevalent New-User Cohort Design.

Observational studies have associated glucosamine, used to treat joint pain and osteoarthritis, with reductions in cancer incidence, although their study design was affected by selection bias. We assessed this association using a study design that mitigates this selection bias. We used the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink to identify a cohort of patients diagnosed with osteoarthritis during 1995 through 2017. The prevalent new-user cohort design was employed to match glucosamine initiators with non-users on time-conditional propensity scores, who were observed until cancer incidence. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of cancer incidence were estimated to compare glucosamine initiators with non-users. The study cohort of patients with osteoarthritis included 20,541 glucosamine initiators who were matched to 20,541 non-users. Over an average follow-up of eight years, the overall incidence rate of any cancer was 16.4 per 1,000 per year. The HR of any cancer incidence with glucosamine treatment was 0.97 (95% CI 0.91-1.02) compared with non-users. For lung cancer, the HR with glucosamine treatment was 0.99 (95% CI 0.83-1.18), whereas it was 1.11 (95% CI 0.93-1.33) for colorectal cancer, 1.07 (95% CI 0.93-1.23) for breast cancer in women, and 1.03 (95% CI 0.88-1.22) for prostate cancer. In this large, real-world study of patients with osteoarthritis, designed to emulate a trial, treatment with glucosamine did not reduce the incidence of cancer. This finding reinforces that previous studies, not based on glucosamine initiators, were affected by selection bias. Our study does not support the prescription of glucosamine to prevent cancer in patients with osteoarthritis.

Efficacy of Diclofenac and Indomethacin for Prevention of Post-Endoscopic Cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) Pancreatitis: A Systematic Review.

Endoscopic cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is a widely used diagnostic and therapeutic tool for pancreaticobiliary conditions. One of its major complications is pancreatitis. This study aims to understand the incidence of post-ERCP pancreatitis after using rectal diclofenac and Indomethacin as prophylactic measures. We retrieved 2870 articles from the PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar databases. Using the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) strategy in PubMed, we chose research articles published in the last five years. Exclusion criteria included paid full-text articles, abstracts, letters to editors, patients not undergoing ERCP, ages more than 45 years, animal studies, and non-English studies. The 2020 Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) criteria were used in the design of our systematic reviews. It was found that the medical world is still debating whether rectal diclofenac and Indomethacin are beneficial in avoiding post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). Rectal diclofenac is used. Although its effectiveness is debated due to mixed findings and concerns about certain outcomes, it is also considered beneficial in specific circumstances, such as before ERCP. Studies on rectal Indomethacin also yield contradictory results; while some emphasize the drug's large reduction in PEP incidence, especially in low-risk people, others question its efficacy. We need further studies to clarify the remaining uncertainties.

Clinical effects of a home care program for patients with peritoneal dialysis in a tertiary care hospital.

Digital health technologies have been rapidly adopted during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. In Korea, a home care program, including face-to-face educational consultation and remote patient monitoring, was initiated to improve patients' quality of life. This study focused on patients with end-stage renal disease undergoing peritoneal dialysis to verify the long-term clinical effectiveness of this home care program. This retrospective cohort study was designed as a pre-post study to analyze the clinical impact of a home care program for patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis in a single tertiary care hospital. A total of 186 patients were selected from June 2017 to May 2022 to identify clinical changes after program implementation by analyzing changes in peritonitis incidence and laboratory test results. Interrupted time series analyses with ordinary least squares linear regression and chi-square tests were used. At baseline, the incidence of peritonitis continuously increased by 0.480 cases per 1,000 patient-months (p = 0.02). After program initiation, the trend significantly decreased by 0.886 cases per 1,000 patient-months (p = 0.02). In addition, the proportion of individuals reaching the clinical target range had increased calcium levels (4.9%p, p = 0.003), stable hemoglobin (1.2%p, p = 0.477), phosphorus (2.8%p, p = 0.09), potassium (-1.6%p, p = 0.22), while parathyroid hormone levels decreased (-6.6%p, p = 0.005). With a reduction in peritonitis incidence and overall improvement in laboratory test results, our study suggests that conducting a home care program for patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis is clinically effective.

Efficacy and risk factors of stent placement in the treatment of malignant tracheoesophageal fistula.

Due to the low incidence of malignant tracheoesophageal fistula and the paucity of relevant clinical studies, the benefits of stent implantation have not been well documented. It remains unclear which factors may affect fistula closure. Between January 2015 and January 2021, 344 patients who were diagnosed with malignant tracheoesophageal fistula at Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, were retrospectively enrolled. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Risk factors for fistula closure identified by univariate analysis were further analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. A total of 288 patients were analyzed in this study, of which 94 were treated conservatively, 170 were treated with an esophageal stent, and 24 were treated with a tracheal stent. Among them, the delta Karnofsky's performance status score values (after 2 weeks/before treatment [p = 0.0028], after 1 month/before treatment [p = 0.0103]) were significantly different between conservative and stent treatment. There was a significant reduction of pneumonia incidence in the stenting group (33.53%) compared to the conservative treatment group (77.05%) after one month (p <0.0001). In addition, the closure of fistulas was influenced by four independent risk factors: 1) treatment methods (p < 0.0001), 2) fistula size (p = 0.0003), 3) preoperative white blood cell count (p = 0.0042), and 4) preoperative Karnofsky's performance status score (p = 0.0001). Stent implantation has become an effective method for treating malignant tracheoesophageal fistula compared to conservative treatment. Additionally, stent implantation, smaller fistula size, lower preoperative white blood cell count, and higher preoperative Karnofsky's performance status score suggest a better outcome.

Role of fungicides to control blossom blight and fruit rot the main symptoms of olive anthracnose in Uruguay

Olive anthracnose caused by Colletotrichum is the most destructive olive disease worldwide causing blossom blight and fruit root. The in vitro effect of 14 fungicides from six chemical groups on the mycelial growth inhibition of Colletotrichum acutatum s.s., Colletotrichum nymphaeae, and Colletotrichum fioriniae isolates were evaluated. Tebuconazole, pyraclostrobin, and ziram significantly inhibit the mycelial growth of Colletotrichum spp. The effectiveness of these three fungicides was evaluated on detached flowers and copper oxychloride, cuprous oxide, and copper calcium sulfate on detached fruits. Arbequina, Frantoio, Coratina, and Picual cultivars inoculated with these Colletotrichum species were used. Over the flowers, fungicides caused a delay in the appearance of blossom blight between 24 and 48 h and a reduction in the disease incidence by more than 60%. Over the fruits, copper-based fungicides in general failed to reduce the anthracnose severity. This study presents the potential of some fungicides to be used for olive anthracnose control in an integrated management strategy.

Nonantibiotic prophylaxis for urinary tract infections: a network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Recent guidelines indicated that, in addition to antibiotics, nonantibiotic interventions serve as available preventive options for urinary tract infections (UTIs). This study aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of various nonantibiotic interventions in preventing UTIs. The authors systematically searched databases for eligible studies. The inclusion criteria encompassed randomized controlled trials (RCTs) focusing on one or more nonantibiotic interventions for UTI prevention, with the incidence of UTIs being a key outcome measure. Subgroup analyses were performed according to age, sex, and follow-up. 50 RCTs comprising 10,495 subjects and investigating 14 interventions, were included. Nearly 80% of the RCTs utilized double-blind or triple-blind designs. In the whole group, D-mannose (risk ratio [RR] 0.34, 0.21 to 0.56), vaccine (RR 0.65, 0.52 to 0.82), probiotics (RR 0.69, 0.50 to 0.94), cranberry (RR 0.72, 0.60 to 0.87), and triple therapy (cranberry plus probiotics plus vitamin A) (RR 0.27, 0.09 to 0.87), exhibited a significant reduction in UTI incidence compared to the placebo. Probiotics (RR 0.50, 0.28 to 0.89) were the most effective in the nonadult group, while vitamin D (RR 0.46, 0.27 to 0.81) showed the highest efficacy in the long follow-up group (≥ 1 year). There was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse events between the interventions and the placebo group. D-mannose, triple therapy, vaccine, probiotics, and cranberry serve as potential nonantibiotic intervention options for clinical UTI prevention.

The impact of exercise training on muscle sympathetic nerve activity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to examine the effects of exercise training on muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) in humans. Studies included exercise interventions [randomized controlled trials (RCTs), nonrandomized controlled trials (non-RCTs), or pre-to-post intervention] that reported on adults (≥18 yr) where MSNA was directly assessed using microneurography, and relevant outcomes were assessed [MSNA (total activity, burst frequency, burst incidence, amplitude), heart rate, blood pressure (systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, or mean blood pressure), and aerobic capacity (maximal or peak oxygen consumption)]. Forty intervention studies (n = 1,253 individuals) were included. RCTs of exercise compared with no exercise illustrated that those randomized to the exercise intervention had a significant reduction in MSNA burst frequency and incidence compared with controls. This reduction in burst frequency was not different between individuals with cardiovascular disease compared with those without. However, the reduction in burst incidence was greater in those with cardiovascular disease [9 RCTs studies, n = 234, mean difference (MD) -21.08 bursts/100 hbs; 95% confidence interval (CI) -16.51, -25.66; I2 = 63%] compared with those without (6 RCTs, n = 192, MD -10.92 bursts/100 hbs; 95% CI -4.12, -17.73; I2 = 76%). Meta-regression analyses demonstrated a dose-response relationship where individuals with higher burst frequency and incidence preintervention had a greater reduction in values post-intervention. These findings suggest that exercise training reduces muscle sympathetic nerve activity, which may be valuable for improving cardiovascular health.NEW & NOTEWORTHY This systematic review and meta-analysis suggests exercise training reduces muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA), which may be valuable for improving cardiovascular health. The reduction in burst incidence was greater among individuals with cardiovascular disease when compared with those without; exercise training may be particularly beneficial for individuals with cardiovascular disease. Meta-regression analyses demonstrated a dose-response relationship, where individuals with higher sympathetic activity preintervention had greater reductions in sympathetic activity post-intervention.

Effects of global change on snakebite envenoming incidence up to 2050: a modelling assessment

Human activities are driving climate, land cover, and population change (global change), and shifting the baseline geographical distribution of snakebite. The interacting effects of global change on snakes and communities at risk of snakebite are poorly understood, limiting capacity to anticipate and manage future changes in snakebite risk. In this modelling study, we projected how global change will affect snakebite envenoming incidence in Sri Lanka, as a model system that has a high incidence of snakebite. We used the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenario analysis framework to integrate forecasts across the domains of: climate change (historical trend from WorldClim plus three underlying regional circulation models [RCMs] in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-South Asia repository, with two emissions pathways [representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5]); land cover change (Dyna-CLUE model); and human population density change (based on Gridded Population of the World data) from Jan 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2050. Forecasts were integrated under three different development scenarios: a sustainability pathway (SSP1 and no further emissions), a middle-of-the-road pathway (SSP2 and RCP4.5), and a fossil-fuelled pathway (SSP5 and RCP8.5). For SSP2 and SSP5, we nested three different RCMs (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CCM3, and MPI-ESM-LR; mean averaged to represent consensus) to account for variability in climate predictions. Data were used as inputs to a mechanistic model that predicted snakebite envenoming incidence based on human-snake contact patterns. From 2010 to 2050, at the national level, envenoming incidence in Sri Lanka was projected to decrease by 12·0-23·0%, depending on the scenario. The rate of decrease in envenoming incidence was higher in SSP5-RCP8.5 than in SSP1 and SSP2-RCP4.5. Change in envenoming incidence was heterogenous across the country. In SSP1, incidence decreased in urban areas expected to have population growth, and with land cover changes towards anthropised classes. In SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5, most areas were projected to have decreases in incidence (SSP5-RCP8.5 showing the largest area with incidence reductions), while areas such as the central highlands and the north of the country showed localised increases. In the model, decreases occurred with human population growth, land use change towards anthropised classes (potentially shifting occupational risk factors), and decreasing abundance of some snake species, potentially due to global warming and reduced climatic and habitat suitability, with displacement of some snake species. Snakebite envenoming incidence was projected to decrease overall in the coming decades in Sri Lanka, but with an apparent emerging conflict with sustainability objectives. Therefore, efforts to mitigate snakebite envenoming incidence will need to consider the potential impacts of sustainability interventions, particularly related to climate and land use change and in areas where increases in incidence are projected. In view of global change, neglected tropical diseases and public health issues related to biodiversity, such as snakebite, should be managed collaboratively by both environment and health stakeholders. UK Medical Research Council.

The efficacy of interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes among women with recent gestational diabetes mellitus-A living systematic review and meta-analysis.

While previously considered a transient condition, with no lasting adverse impact, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is now a well-established risk factor for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The risk of developing T2DM appears to be particularly high in the first few years after childbirth, providing a compelling case for early intervention. This review provides an up-to-date systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effectiveness of interventions to reduce incidence of T2DM in women with a recent history of GDM. The search was conducted on October 20, 2023 with an annual surveillance planned for the next 5 years to maintain a living systematic review. The inclusion criteria were randomized controlled trials of any type in women within 5 years of GDM-complicated pregnancy that reported outcomes of T2DM diagnosis or measures of dysglycemia with a follow-up of at least 12 months. Seventeen studies met our inclusion criteria and have been included in this review. There were 3 pharmacological and 14 lifestyle interventions. Intervention was not associated with significant reduction in the primary outcome of T2DM (risk ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43-1.41; p = 0.41; I2 = 79%) compared with the control group (placebo or usual care). However, meta-analysis of the four studies reporting hazard ratios suggested a reduction in diabetes incidence (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI: 0.48-0.97; p = 0.03; I2 = 31%). This review provides equivocal evidence about the efficacy of interventions to reduce the risk of T2DM in women within 5 years of GDM-complicated pregnancy and highlights the need for further studies, including pharmacotherapy.

Best practices in wound care for gastrointestinal stoma and colorectal cancer patients from a nursing perspective: A meta-analysis.

Colorectal cancer, a type of colon or bowel cancer, poses a major challenge in the treatment of colorectal lesions. Colorectal endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) is a minimally invasive technique, but the risk of wound infections remains a significant concern. These infections can impede the healing process, affecting daily activities and patient satisfaction. To mitigate the risk of wound infections, various prophylactic measures have been explored, including medication, vaccines, lifestyle adjustments and hygiene practices. This study aims to investigate the prevention of wound infections through prophylactic measures in colorectal EMR. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify prophylactic measures that can prevent wound infections. A systematic literature search was conducted using both free words and search terms. The data extraction was performed after a comprehensive literature screening. The meta-analysis was performed using the metabin function of the meta library in R to evaluate the infection incidences in intervention and control groups. A total of 599 infection incidences were considered, with 267 in intervention and 332 in the control group. The results of meta analysis demonstrated significant reduction of wound incidences following the prophylactic measures (risk ratio [RR] = 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.6747; 0.9016, I2 = 78.5%, p < 0.01). The wound infection ratio analysis also exhibited an approximate 6.6% less infection rate in the intervention group, demonstrating significantly less wound infection following the implementation of prophylactic measures. This study highlights the crucial significance of prevention of wound infections by prophylactic measures in colorectal EMR.

CDK4/6 inhibitor PD-0332991 suppresses hepatocarcinogenesis by inducing senescence of hepatic tumor-initiating cells

IntroductionOwing to the limited treatment options for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), interventions targeting pre-HCC stages have attracted increasing attention. In the pre-HCC stage, hepatic tumor-initiating cells (hTICs) proliferate abnormally and contribute to hepatocarcinogenesis. Numerous studies have investigated targeted senescence induction as an HCC intervention. However, it remains to be clarified whether senescence induction of hTICs could serve as a pre-HCC intervention. ObjectivesThis study was designed to investigate whether senescence induction of hTICs in the precancerous stage inhibit HCC initiation. Methods and ResultsHCC models developed from chronic liver injury (CLI) were established by using Fah-/- mice and N-Ras + AKT mice. PD-0332991, a selective CDK4/6 inhibitor that blocks the G1/S transition in proliferating cells, was used to induce senescence during the pre-HCC stage. Upon administration of PD-0332991, we observed a significant reduction in HCC incidence following selective senescence induction in hTICs, and an alleviation liver injury in the CLI-HCC models. PD-0332991 also induced senescence in vitro in cultured hTICs isolated from CLI-HCC models. Moreover, RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) analysis delineated that the “Cyclin D-CDK4/6-INK4-Rb” pathway was activated in both mouse and human liver samples during the pre-HCC stage, while PD-0332991 exhibited substantial inhibition of this pathway, thereby inducing cellular senescence in hTICs. Regarding the immune microenvironment, we demonstrated that senescent hTICs secrete key senescence-associated secretory phenotypic (SASP) factors, CXCL10 and CCL2, to activate and recruit macrophages, and contribute to immune surveillance. ConclusionWe found that hTICs can be targeted and induced into a senescent state during the pre-HCC stage. The SASP factors released by senescent hTICs further activate the immune response, facilitating the clearance of hTICs, and consequently suppressing HCC occurrence. We highlight the importance of pre-HCC interventions and propose that senescence-inducing drugs hold promise for preventing HCC initiation under CLI.

The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study

For settings with low tuberculosis incidence, disease elimination is a long-term goal. We investigated pathways to tuberculosis pre-elimination (incidence <1·0 cases per 100 000 people) and elimination (incidence <0·1 cases per 100 000 people) in the USA, where incidence was estimated at 2·9 per 100 000 people in 2023. Using a mathematical modelling framework, we simulated how US tuberculosis incidence could be affected by changes in tuberculosis services in the countries of origin for future migrants to the USA, as well as changes in tuberculosis services inside the USA. To do so, we used a linked set of transmission dynamic models, calibrated to demographic and epidemiological data for each setting. We constructed intervention scenarios representing improvements in tuberculosis services internationally and within the USA, individually and in combination, plus a base-case scenario representing continuation of current services. We simulated health and economic outcomes until 2100, using a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in these outcomes. Under the base-case scenario, US tuberculosis incidence was projected to decline to 1·8 cases per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5-2·1) in the total population by 2050. Intervention scenarios produced substantial reductions in tuberculosis incidence, with the combination of all domestic and international interventions projected to achieve pre-elimination by 2033 (95% UI 2031-2037). Compared with the base-case scenario, this combination of interventions could avert 101 000 tuberculosis cases (95% UI 84 000-120 000) and 13 300 tuberculosis deaths (95% UI 10 500-16 300) in the USA from 2025 to 2050. Tuberculosis elimination was not projected before 2100. Strengthening tuberculosis services domestically, promoting the development of more effective technologies and interventions, and supporting tuberculosis programmes in countries with a high tuberculosis burden are key strategies for accelerating progress towards tuberculosis elimination in the USA. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Alternative endpoints to mortality in cancer screening trials.

The reliance on mortality endpoints in cancer screening trials is not always compatible with the need to accelerate progress in outcomes for patient and public benefit. Evaluation of novel cancer screening technologies, such as multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests, could be expedited by using alternative metrics that are measurable earlier than mortality. These include endpoints based on cancer stage at diagnosis, such as reduction in late-stage cancer incidence, and endpoints following cancer diagnosis, such as eligibility for curative therapy. Innovative trial designs with earlier measures that complement cancer mortality are needed to realise the potential benefits of novel screening technologies such as MCEDs more rapidly.

Time trend analysis and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on mammography and Papanicolaou test coverage in Brazilian state capitals

BackgroundBreast and cervical cancer are major public health issues globally. The reduction in incidence and mortality rates of these cancers is linked to effective prevention, early detection, and appropriate treatment measures. This study aims to analyze the temporal trends in the prevalence of mammography and Papanicolaou test coverage among women living in Brazilian state capitals between 2007 and 2023, and to compare the coverage of these tests before and during the Covid-19 pandemic.MethodsA time series study was conducted using data from the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey from 2007 to 2023. The variables analyzed included mammography and Papanicolaou test coverage according to education level, age group, race/skin color, regions, and Brazilian capitals. The Prais-Winsten regression model was used to analyze the time series, and Student’s t-test was employed to compare the prevalence rates between 2019 and 2023.ResultsBetween 2007 and 2023, mammography coverage showed a stationary trend (71.1% in 2007 and 73.1% in 2023; p-value = 0.75) with a declining trend observed among women with 12 years or more of education (APC= -0.52% 95%CI -1.01%; -0.02%). Papanicolaou test coverage for all women aged between 25 and 64 exhibited a downward trend from 82% in 2007 to 76.8% in 2023 (APC= -0.45% 95%CI -0.76%; -0.13%). This decline was also noticed among those with 9 years or more of education; in the 25 to 44 age group; among women with white and mixed race; and in the Northeast, Central-West, Southeast, and South regions. When comparing coverage before and during Covid-19 pandemic, a reduction was noted for both tests.ConclusionsOver the years, there has been stability in mammography coverage and a decline in Papanicolaou test. The COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted the number of these tests carried out among women, highlighting the importance of actions aimed at increasing coverage, especially among the most vulnerable groups.

Agaro-oligosaccharides enhanced the Monilinia fructicola resistance of peach fruit by regulating antioxidative and phenylpropanoid metabolism

Postharvest peach fruit is susceptible to Monilinia fructicola commomnly known as brown rot, which has caused significant economic losses in the peach industry. The objective of this study was to investigate the inhibitory effect of agaro-oligosaccharides on peach fruit against Monilinia fructicola, as well as its associated mechanisms. Results showed that agaro-oligosaccharides treatment did not affect the growth of Monilinia fructicola in vitro test and it did not have a significant influence on fruit quality. However, AO treatment led to a notable reduction in both disease incidence and lesion diameter in Monilinia fructicola-inoculated peach fruit. Agaro-oligosaccharides-treated fruit exhibited increased activities of superoxide dismutase, catalase, and ascorbic acid peroxidase with elevated expression levels of their respective genes as well as higher contents of ascorbic acid and glutathione. Furthermore, agaro-oligosaccharides increased the activities of chitinase and beta-1, 3-glucanase along with up-regulated gene expression levels. Increased activities of phenylalanine ammonia-lyase, cinnamate 4-hydroxylase, 4-coumarate coenzyme A ligase, polyphenol oxidase, and peroxidase, along with elevated expression levels of their corresponding genes, were also observed in agaro-oligosaccharides-treated fruit, resulting in the accumulation of total phenols, flavonoid, and lignin. These findings demonstrated that agaro-oligosaccharides induced the disease resistance of peach fruit, which was attributed to the activation of antioxidative and phenylpropanoid metabolism.

Real-time financial monitoring systems: Enhancing risk management through continuous oversight

The rapid evolution of financial technology has introduced complex risks that challenge traditional risk management frameworks, necessitating innovative solutions. This review paper aims to examine and synthesize existing research on real-time financial monitoring systems that use advanced AI and ML technologies to enhance risk management through continuous oversight. The focus includes traditional financial institutions and fintech companies across various regions to address disparities in risk management capabilities. The reviewed studies span five years, from 2018 to 2023, incorporating transactional records, compliance reports, and stakeholder surveys, providing a comprehensive informational and statistical basis. Using a mixed-methods approach that includes qualitative interviews and quantitative data analysis, the literature confirms that real-time monitoring systems significantly improve risk detection accuracy and operational efficiency. Specifically, the studies show a reduction in fraud incidents by 35% and an improvement in credit risk assessment accuracy by 25%. These findings indicate enhanced predictive capabilities and faster response times to emerging threats. The conclusions drawn are relevant for financial institutions, regulators, and policymakers aiming to improve risk management practices and compliance standards. The potential for further application includes broader adoption of real-time systems across the financial sector, ensuring enhanced stability and security in the face of evolving digital threats.