Reduction In Life Years Research Articles

Impact of Noncommunicable Diseases on Years of Life Lost in FB&H During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract This study aims to comprehensively investigate the impact of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) on years of life lost (YLL) within the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FB&H) across distinct phases: pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods. Given that NCDs currently represent more than half of the global disease burden, our focus lies in assessing YLL specifically for cerebral infarction (I63-I64) and diabetes mellitus (E10-E14). Conducting a retrospective data analysis, we utilized mortality data sourced from the Institute for Statistics of FB&H to quantify YLL. This assessment involved multiplying age-specific mortality figures by the remaining life expectancy at the corresponding age, utilizing the GBD 2019 life expectancy table. Examining the period between 2019 and 2022, our analysis aimed to elucidate the pandemic’s potential influence on NCD burden, through the examination of age-standardized YLL rates based on the world standard population. In 2019, YLL attributable to I63-I64 for both sexes totaled 41,244 in 2019, escalating to 44,790 in 2020, and subsequently decreasing to 39,439 and 32,055 in the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022, respectively. For diabetes mellitus (E10-E14), YLL in 2019 amounted to 23,675, with figures for 2020, 2021, and 2022 standing retrospectively at 24,329, 24,114, 19,125. The increase in 2020 may be attributed, in part, to initial healthcare hesitancy during the pandemic’s onset, leading to delayed treatment and heightened mortality rates. Furthermore, patients who died in 2020 from C-19 without being tested may have skewed mortality registration by inflating rates attributed to pre-existing conditions. The declining rates thereafter could be due to a harvesting pandemic effect, in that people who were previously ill died prematurely from C-19. These insights show the pandemic’s profound impact on NCD-related mortality, underscoring the urgent need for targeted interventions and healthcare strategies. Key messages • A substantial reduction in years of life lost (YLL) related to certain noncommunicable diseases was observed during the pandemic. • The pandemic significantly influenced mortality among individuals with noncommunicable diseases, driven partly by healthcare hesitancy and potential misregistration of causes of death.

Cost-Effectiveness of 20-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Among US Children with Underlying Medical Conditions.

A 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) was recently recommended for use among US children. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of PCV20 among children aged 6years with chronic medical conditions (CMC+) and children aged 6years with immunocompromising conditions (IC) versus one and two doses of 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23), respectively. A probabilistic model was employed to depict 10-year risk of clinical outcomes and economic costs of pneumococcal disease, reduction in life years from premature death, and expected impact of vaccination among one cohort of children with CMC+ and IC aged 6years. Vaccine uptake was assumed to be 20% for both PCV20 and PPSV23. Cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained was evaluated from the US societal and healthcare system perspectives; deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (DSA/PSA) were also conducted. Among the 226,817 children with CMC+ aged 6 years in the US, use of PCV20 (in lieu of PPSV23) was projected to reduce the number cases of pneumococcal disease by 5203 cases, medical costs by US$8.7 million, and nonmedical costs by US$6.2 million. PCV20 was the dominant strategy versus PPSV23 from both the healthcare and societal perspectives. In the PSA, 99.9% of the 1000 simulations yielded a finding of dominance for PCV20. Findings in analyses of children with IC aged 6years in the USA were comparable (i.e., PCV20 was the dominant vaccination strategy). Scenario analyses showed that increasing PCV20 uptake to 100% could potentially prevent > 22,000 additional cases of pneumococcal disease and further reduce medical and nonmedical costs by US$70.0 million among children with CMC+ and IC. Use of PCV20 among young children with CMC+ and IC in the USA would reduce the clinical burden of pneumococcal disease and yield overall cost savings from both the US healthcare system and societal perspectives. Higher PCV20 uptake could further reduce the number of pneumococcal disease cases in this population.

Investigating the Health Effects of 3 Coexisting Tobacco-Related Products Using System Dynamics Population Modeling: An Italian Population Case Study.

With the proliferation of tobacco products, there might be a need for more complex models than current two-product models. We have developed a three-product model able to represent interactions between three products in the marketplace. We also investigate if using several implementations of two-product models could provide sufficient information to assess 3 coexisting products. Italy is used as case-study with THPs and e-cigarettes as the products under investigation. We use transitions rates estimated for THPs in Japan and e-cigarettes in the USA to project what could happen if the Italian population were to behave as the Japanese for THP or USA for e-cigarettes. Results suggest that three-product models may be hindered by data availability while two product models could miss potential synergies between products. Both, THP and E-Cigarette scenarios, led to reduction in life-years lost although the Japanese THP scenario reductions were 3 times larger than the USA e-cigarette projections.

Modeling the Population Health Impacts of Heated Tobacco Products in Japan

Objective: We evaluated the potential population health impact of launching heated tobacco products (HTP) in Japan. Method: We use a modeling approach to project the effects of HTP use in overall mortality up to 2100 and compare those projections against a baseline scenario based on smoking rates pre-HTP launch, ie, smoking only. The model was informed using data from publicly available sources and the literature, including population size, yearly deaths, and smoking prevalence with the initial year of 2004, and births and migration from 2004 to 2065. Transitions between products were estimated from cross-sectional population surveys in Japan. Result: In a worst-case scenario, population health gains would be seen with HTPs risk about 50% lower risk than smoking. Assuming equal risk for dual use and smoking, HTP risk would need to be at least 10% lower than smoking to achieve a population health benefit by 2100. Potential reduction in life-years lost with the introduction of HTPs was 13 million by 2100 compared with smoking only. Conclusions: In credible scenarios, substantial population harm reduction will follow the introduction of HTPs in Japan.

The lifelong course of chronic epilepsy: the Chalfont experience

The long-term outcome of chronic epilepsy remains largely unknown, despite a long historical experience. We report the lifelong course of epilepsy of an historical cohort of 235 subjects who were in residential care at the Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy: 122 had comprehensive post-mortem examination. The populations admitted as resident to the centre over time followed the evolution of society's perception of epilepsy. 'Early residents' (before 1972) were admitted for sheltered employment, escaping stigmatization, whereas 'later' residents with more severe epilepsies were admitted for care. Subjects admitted before 1972 were similar to subjects followed nowadays as outpatients, whereas patients admitted later with a higher burden of disabilities are often those in residential care. This long follow-up allowed exploration of a wide spectrum of epilepsies, affecting both subjects who were otherwise healthy and those with co-morbidities. Age at death showed a bimodal distribution with an early peak of mortality between 45-50 years old, whilst the remainder had life expectancy comparable to the general population. As a group, subjects who had post-mortem examination were not significantly different from patients who did not have post-mortem examination, but post-mortem examination provided data that were otherwise unavailable. For those who had post-mortem examination, sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP, 18% of all deaths) did not fully explain the early mortality, to which co-morbidities contributed. High seizure frequency was a significant independent predictor of early death even after excluding SUDEP (e.g. reduction in years of life for those who had >4 seizures/month compared with those who had <1 seizure/month: 13 years; 95% confidence interval: 6-19; overall P = 0.0006). Those who survived to older age increasingly went into spontaneous remission lasting until death (in the whole cohort, 38/166, 23% of those who died in or after sixth decade). In subjects who had post-mortem examination, older age (odds ratio = 1.13; 95% confidence interval: 1.06-1.20) and presence of neuropathologically confirmed degenerative changes (that were not the cause of epilepsy) (odds ratio 7.14; 1.95-26.2) were independent predictors of terminal remission. Epilepsy may cause premature death indirectly through co-morbid conditions. Terminal remission occurs even without prior remissions; ageing may improve epilepsy drug responsiveness although unknown factors related to the natural history may also play a role.

Life Years Lost Associated with Obesity-Related Diseases for U.S. Non-Smoking Adults

The objectives of this paper are to predict life years lost associated with obesity-related diseases (ORDs) for U.S. non-smoking adults, and to examine the relationship between those ORDs and mortality. Data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1997–2000, were used. We employed mixed proportional hazard models to estimate the association between those ORDs and mortality and used simulations to project life years lost associated with the ORDs. We found that obesity-attributable comorbidities are associated with large decreases in life years and increases in mortality rates. The life years lost associated with ORDs is more marked for younger adults than older adults, for blacks than whites, for males than females, and for the more obese than the less obese. Using U.S. non-smoking adults aged 40 to 49 years as an example to illustrate percentage of the life years lost associated with ORDs, we found that the mean life years lost associated with ORDs for U.S. non-smoking black males aged 40 to 49 years with a body mass index above 40 kg/m2 was 5.43 years, which translates to a 7.5% reduction in total life years. White males of the same age range and same degree of obesity lost 5.23 life years on average – a 6.8% reduction in total life years, followed by black females (5.04 years, a 6.5% reduction in life years), and white females (4.7 years, a 5.8% reduction in life years). Overall, ORDs increased chances of dying and lessened life years by 0.2 to 11.7 years depending on gender, race, BMI classification, and age.

Life Years Lost Associated with Obesity-Related Diseases for U.S. Non-Smoking Adults.

The objectives of this paper are to predict life years lost associated with obesity-related diseases (ORDs) for U.S. non-smoking adults, and to examine the relationship between those ORDs and mortality. Data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1997-2000, were used. We employed mixed proportional hazard models to estimate the association between those ORDs and mortality and used simulations to project life years lost associated with the ORDs. We found that obesity-attributable comorbidities are associated with large decreases in life years and increases in mortality rates. The life years lost associated with ORDs is more marked for younger adults than older adults, for blacks than whites, for males than females, and for the more obese than the less obese. Using U.S. non-smoking adults aged 40 to 49 years as an example to illustrate percentage of the life years lost associated with ORDs, we found that the mean life years lost associated with ORDs for U.S. non-smoking black males aged 40 to 49 years with a body mass index above 40 kg/m2 was 5.43 years, which translates to a 7.5% reduction in total life years. White males of the same age range and same degree of obesity lost 5.23 life years on average -- a 6.8% reduction in total life years, followed by black females (5.04 years, a 6.5% reduction in life years), and white females (4.7 years, a 5.8% reduction in life years). Overall, ORDs increased chances of dying and lessened life years by 0.2 to 11.7 years depending on gender, race, BMI classification, and age.

Including quality attributes in efficiency measures consistent with net benefit: Creating incentives for evidence based medicine in practice

Evidence based medicine supports net benefit maximising therapies and strategies in processes of health technology assessment (HTA) for reimbursement and subsidy decisions internationally. However, translation of evidence based medicine to practice is impeded by efficiency measures such as cost per case-mix adjusted separation in hospitals, which ignore health effects of care.In this paper we identify a correspondence method that allows quality variables under control of providers to be incorporated in efficiency measures consistent with maximising net benefit. Including effects framed from a disutility bearing (utility reducing) perspective (e.g. mortality, morbidity or reduction in life years) as inputs and minimising quality inclusive costs on the cost-disutility plane is shown to enable efficiency measures consistent with maximising net benefit under a one to one correspondence. The method combines advantages of radial properties with an appropriate objective of maximising net benefit to overcome problems of inappropriate objectives implicit with alternative methods, whether specifying quality variables with utility bearing output (e.g. survival, reduction in morbidity or life years), hyperbolic or exogenous variables. This correspondence approach is illustrated in undertaking efficiency comparison at a clinical activity level for 45 Australian hospitals allowing for their costs and mortality rates per admission. Explicit coverage and comparability conditions of the underlying correspondence method are also shown to provide a robust framework for preventing cost-shifting and cream-skimming incentives, with appropriate qualification of analysis and support for data linkage and risk adjustment where these conditions are not satisfied.Comparison on the cost-disutility plane has previously been shown to have distinct advantages in comparing multiple strategies in HTA, which this paper naturally extends to a robust method and framework for comparing efficiency of health care providers in practice. Consequently, the proposed approach provides a missing link between HTA and practice, to allow active incentives for evidence based net benefit maximisation in practice.

Impacto de la morbilidad en la salud de la población del País Vasco 2002-2007: una visión integral a través de las esperanzas de salud

The estimation of the impact of morbidity on health is essential to health planning. The objective was to estimate this impact using disability free life expectancy, and to analyze whether the hypothetical elimination of various diseases would have led to a compression or expansion of morbidity. Cross-sectional study on the population of the Basque Country. Data on mortality (2002-2006), health survey data (2007) and population based data were used. The impact of different groups of diseases on mortality rates, years of life and potential years of life lost (PYLL) and disability (absolute number and rates) were calculated. An integrated analysis was also done, using disability free life expectancy (DFLE), using the Sullivan method. The diseases causing the greatest impact on mortality were tumours among men (35,2% and 39,3% of deaths and PYLL respectively), and circulatory diseases (34,5% of deaths) and tumours (43,6% of PYLL) among women. Osteomuscular diseases had a major impact on disability, causing the 26,6% and the 45,2% of the total cases in men and women). Circulatory diseases had the highest impact as a whole (4.2 years of DFLE in men and 3.8 in women). However, osteomuscular diseases had the highest influence on years of life with disability. The diseases which caused the overall greatest impact on mortality and disability were circulatory system related ones, tumors, and osteomuscular diseases. The elimination of this last group of diseases would have led to a morbidity compression, meaning the greatest reduction in life years with disability among all the causes.

Estimating the National Public Health Burden Associated with Exposure to Ambient PM2.5 and Ozone

Ground-level ozone (O(3)) and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) are associated with increased risk of mortality. We quantify the burden of modeled 2005 concentrations of O(3) and PM(2.5) on health in the United States. We use the photochemical Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in conjunction with ambient monitored data to create fused surfaces of summer season average 8-hour ozone and annual mean PM(2.5) levels at a 12 km grid resolution across the continental United States. Employing spatially resolved demographic and concentration data, we assess the spatial and age distribution of air-pollution-related mortality and morbidity. For both PM(2.5) and O(3) we also estimate: the percentage of total deaths due to each pollutant; the reduction in life years and life expectancy; and the deaths avoided according to hypothetical air quality improvements. Using PM(2.5) and O(3) mortality risk coefficients drawn from the long-term American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort study and National Mortality and Morbidity Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS), respectively, we estimate 130,000 PM(2.5) -related deaths and 4,700 ozone-related deaths to result from 2005 air quality levels. Among populations aged 65-99, we estimate nearly 1.1 million life years lost from PM(2.5) exposure and approximately 36,000 life years lost from ozone exposure. Among the 10 most populous counties, the percentage of deaths attributable to PM(2.5) and ozone ranges from 3.5% in San Jose to 10% in Los Angeles. These results show that despite significant improvements in air quality in recent decades, recent levels of PM(2.5) and ozone still pose a nontrivial risk to public health.

GIS-based models for ambient PM exposure and health impact assessment for the UK

GIS-based models have been developed to map ambient PM10 and PM25 mass concentrations across the UK. The resulting maps are used for the assessments of air quality required by the EU ambient air quality directives, health impact assessment and the development of UK air quality policy. Maps are presented for 2006 along with projections to 2020. The largest single contribution to the UK population-weighted mean annual mean background concentrations of PM10 in 2006 is estimated to be from secondary PM (43%), followed by the contribution from primary PM (24%). Concentrations are predicted to decline by 15% for PM10 and 13% for PM25 over the period from 2006 to 2020. The extent of exceedence of the 24-hour limit value is predicted to decline from 1.9% to 0.1% of urban major roads over the same period. The potential health benefits of reductions in ambient PM are large. A reduction in concentration of 0.93 μg m-3 as a result of a possible package of measures has been estimated within the UK Air Quality Strategy to result in a reduction in life years lost of approximately 2 - 4 million over a period of 100 years.