Abstract
With the proliferation of tobacco products, there might be a need for more complex models than current two-product models. We have developed a three-product model able to represent interactions between three products in the marketplace. We also investigate if using several implementations of two-product models could provide sufficient information to assess 3 coexisting products. Italy is used as case-study with THPs and e-cigarettes as the products under investigation. We use transitions rates estimated for THPs in Japan and e-cigarettes in the USA to project what could happen if the Italian population were to behave as the Japanese for THP or USA for e-cigarettes. Results suggest that three-product models may be hindered by data availability while two product models could miss potential synergies between products. Both, THP and E-Cigarette scenarios, led to reduction in life-years lost although the Japanese THP scenario reductions were 3 times larger than the USA e-cigarette projections.
Highlights
The concept of tobacco harm reduction was outlined by the Institute of Medicine (IOM) in 2001, in their monolog called Clearing the Smoke [1]
Based on a previous two-product model [18], we have developed a three-product model able to assess interaction between three products
For illustrative purposes only, when comparing life-years lost in Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, the model indicates that life years lost due to smoking could be reduced by 17.6 million by 2100 (Table 3)
Summary
The concept of tobacco harm reduction was outlined by the Institute of Medicine (IOM) in 2001, in their monolog called Clearing the Smoke [1] They suggested a strategy for harm reduction based on the replacement of risky tobacco products like cigarettes with lower risk products. A diverse range of models have been developed for this purpose, many of them founded by the tobacco product manufacturers as part of their submission strategies, but this topic has attracted academic attention [3] All these models investigate the effect of launching a new tobacco product with respect to a scenario where only cigarettes are available [4,5,6].
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