Reduction In Population Exposure Research Articles

Substantial reduction in population exposure to sea level changes along the Chinese mainland coast through emission mitigation

Abstract Rising sea level increases the exposure to flooding and related damage in coastal areas with high population density and substantial economic activity. As global temperatures continue to rise due to climate change, sea levels have been consistently increasing and are projected to continue this upward trend. This study assesses the future exposure at provincial and city levels populations coastal mainland China coast to local sea level changes under five greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios from IPCC-AR6, as well as two low-confidence scenarios accounting for the potential impact of uncertain ice sheet processes with low- and high-GHG emissions. We incorporate spatial heterogeneity into regional sea level projections and population projections from 2020 to 2100, extreme sea levels (ESLs) of 10-, 50-, and 100 year return periods (RP), and local coastal protection standards. Our findings indicate that the inundated areas expand continuously within the century with heightened exposure under higher emission scenarios. Although the coastal population is projected to decline, the fraction of the coastal population exposed to flooding increases across all scenarios, with accelerated growth under higher GHG emissions and higher ESLs. Zhejiang and Jiangsu emerge as the provinces most exposed to sea-level rise, whereas Taizhou, Nantong, Wuxi, Panjin, and Huzhou are identified as the top five cities with the highest population exposure to local sea level rise (SLR). Transitioning towards a sustainable scenario (i.e. SSP1-2.6) rather than a fossil fuel-intensive one (i.e. SSP5-8.5) can reduce the local SLR and substantially mitigate these exposures. Compared to the median projections under SSP5-8.5, aligning GHG emissions with SSP1-2.6 could reduce population exposure substantially in all coastal provinces, especially in Jiangsu, where population exposure to 100 year RP coastal floods would be reduced by ∼1.6 M in 2050 and by ∼5.4 M in 2100.

Increased population exposures to extreme precipitation in Central Asia under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming scenarios

The increase in extreme precipitation (EP) may pose a serious threat to the health and safety of population in arid and semi-arid regions. The current research on the impact of EP on population in Central Asia (CA) is insufficient and there is an urgent need for a comprehensive assessment. Hence, we opted for precipitation and temperature data under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs), which were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6). By integrating population data in 2020 and 2050 (SSP2 and SSP5), we investigated the future changes in EP and population exposure in CA under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios (GWSs). Our analysis indicates that EP in CA is projected to increase with global warming. Under the SSP5–8.5, the maximum daily precipitation (Rx1day) exhibits an average response rate to global warming of 3.58 %/K (1.99–4.06 %/K). With rising temperatures, an increasing number of areas and populations in CA will be impacted by EP, especially in the Fergana valley. Approximately 25% of the population (land area) in CA is exposed to Rx1day with increases of more than 8.31% (9.32%) under 1.5 °C GWS and 14.18% (13.25%) under 2 °C GWS. Controlling temperature rise can be effective in reducing population exposures to EP. For instance, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C results in a 2.79% (1.75%–4.59%) reduction in population exposure to Rx1day. Finally, we found that climate change serves as the predominant factor influencing the population exposure to EP, while the role of population redistribution, although relatively minor, should not be disregarded. Particularly for prolonged drought, the role of population redistribution manifests negatively.

Raising dikes and managed realignment may be insufficient for maintaining current flood risk along the German Baltic Sea coast

Without upgrading existing adaptation, Germany is projected to be among those European countries that will suffer severe flood damages in 2100. Here we use a validated modeling framework to explore the effectiveness of two hypothetical upgrades to existing dike lines in reducing flood extent and population exposure along the German Baltic Sea coast. We perform a number of model runs where we increase the heights of existing dikes by 1.5 m, implement managed realignment as a nature-based solution, where physically plausible, and run a 200-year surge under two sea-level rise scenarios (1 and 1.5 m). We show that managed realignment is more effective in reducing future population exposure to coastal flooding compared to increasing dike heights. However, the maximum reduction in population exposure compared to a do-nothing approach amounts to only 26%, suggesting that even managed realignment is insufficient to maintain flood risk at today´s levels. The greatest potential for protecting people and property from future flooding lies in developing adaptation strategies for currently unprotected coastal sections.

Go with the wind: Spatial impacts of environmental regulations on economic activities in China

This paper assesses the spatial effects of environmental regulations on economic activities. By exploiting the progressive rollout of a national pollution control program in China, which constructed a monitoring network that covered the urban center of every city, we find that polluting firms located in the unmonitored upwind region of the city experienced a substantially larger reduction in output than non-upwind firms after the program. Because the wind can transport upwind pollution emissions to the monitoring network-covered urban center, local governments are incentivized to enforce tighter regulations on upwind firms. Although industrial activities were suppressed, commercial businesses and residential services were promoted in the upwind region, accompanied by a greater supply of corresponding land and increased land prices. Altogether, the monitoring program led to a substantial reduction in population exposure to air pollution and an redistribution of industrial and residential activities within the city. Our findings shed light on the policy-making of future environmental regulation programs.

Scenario Analysis of Air Quality Improvement in Warsaw, Poland, by the End of the Current Decade

Very low air quality in the Warsaw conurbation, Poland, similarly to the case in many large European cities, poses a serious threat to the residents’ health, being a significant source of premature mortality. Many results presented in earlier publications indicated local heating installations and car traffic as the main emission categories responsible for this adverse population exposure, where the dominant polluting compounds are NOx, PM10, PM2.5, and BaP. The last two mainly originate from individual household heating installations, both in the city of Warsaw and in its vicinity. To reduce the health risk of air pollution, the city authorities have recently made fundamental decisions, related to the individual housing sector, aimed at the radical decarbonization of all heating installations in Warsaw and its surroundings. On the other hand, the ongoing modernization of the city’s car fleet (including individual and public transport), taking into account the restrictive EU emission standards, as well as the quickly growing share of electric and hybrid cars (BEVs and PHEVs), gives a good prospect of a fundamental improvement in air quality in Warsaw conurbation. The main subject of the paper is a quantitative assessment of the air quality improvement in the current decade (by 2030), resulting from the above modernization activities. The final results are expressed as the attributed reduction in population exposure, which was found to be 28–30% with respect to NOx and PM, and the associated health risk, i.e., 204 fewer avoidable deaths with respect to NOx and 607 fewer with respect to PM2.5.

Costs and benefits of implementing an Environmental Speed Limit in a Nordic city

We present a comprehensive study on the impacts and associated changes in costs resulting from the implementation of Environmental Speed Limits (ESLs), as a measure to reduce PM10 and associated health effects. We present detailed modelled emissions (i.e., CO2, NOx, PM2.5 and PM10), concentration levels (i.e., PM2.5 and PM10) and population exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 under three scenarios of ESL implementation for the Metropolitan Area of Oslo. We find that whilst emissions of NOx and CO2 do not seem to show significant changes with ESL implementation, PM10 emissions are reduced by 6–12% and annual concentration levels are reduced up to 8%, with a subsequent reduction in population exposure. The modelled data is used to carry out a detailed analysis to quantify the changes in private and social costs for the roads in Oslo where ESL are implemented today. This involves assessments related to human health, climate, fuel consumption, time losses and the incidence of traffic accidents. For a scenario using actual speed data from ESL implementation, our study shows a net benefit associated with the implementation of ESLs, whilst for a theoretical scenario with strict speed limit compliance we find a net increase in costs. This is largely due to variation in costs due to time losses between the scenarios, although uncertainties are high.

Reduction in population exposure to PM2.5 and cancer risk due to PM2.5-bound PAHs exposure in Beijing, China during the APEC meeting

Radical measures for controlling ambient air pollution sources were employed by the Chinese government during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in 2014, providing a unique case to evaluate the health effect benefits from such measures. To examine the cancer risk reduction from the source control measures during the APEC meeting, we estimated the reduction in population exposure to PM2.5 and PAHs and the reduction in PAHs-associated cancer risk if the control measures were sustained over time. We determined the population exposure to PM2.5 and PM2.5-bound PAHs for the 21.52 million Beijing residents using a Land Use Regression model to determine the spatial distribution of PM2.5 and a Monte Carlo approach to revise indoor/outdoor infiltration factor and time activity patterns. Into the model and approach, we incorporated the spatial variance and indoor/outdoor differences in the PM2.5 and PM2.5-bound PAHs concentrations, based on measurements. We then estimated lung cancer risk using the population attributable fraction (PAF), assuming the control measures were sustained over time. The mean PM2.5 exposure concentration decreased from 37.5 μg/m3 (CI:17.1–74.9 μg/m3) to 24.0 μg/m3 (CI:10.2–47.7 μg/m3), whereas the mean PM2.5-bound equivalent benzo[a]pyrene (BaPeq) exposure concentration decreased from 7.1 ng/m3 (CI:3.3–14.2 ng/m3) to 4.2 ng/m3 (CI:1.8–7.7 ng/m3), resulting in a reduction in the lung cancer PAF from 0.75% to 0.45%, if the measures were sustained over time.

Analysis of the effectiveness of measures on reduction population radiation doses due to technogenic and natural sources on the example of Muslyumovo village, the river Techa

The aim of the study was to analyze the effectiveness of measures on reduction of population radiation exposure at the radioactively contaminated territories by comparing radiation doses due to natural and technogenic sources. Materials and methods: the effective doses of radiation exposure due to the Techa River contamination in Muslyumovo were calculated using the data on radionuclide intakes and coefficients recommended by ICRP. Exposure to radon was estimated based on the results of radon surveys of Muslyumovo in 1992 and New Muslyumovo in 2015. Results: the total effective dose due to the Techa River contamination accumulated over the period 1950–2000 was 144 mSv. Annual effective doses due to radon in Muslyumovo and New Muslyumovo were 9,2 and 5,1 mSv respectively. The total effective dose received due to the natural and technogenic radiation was about 0,7 Sv (a contribution of radon is 77%). The total averted dose by the year 2015 due to resettlement in 2007 is 38 mSv. The dose reduction appeared mostly due to lower radon exposure. Conclusion: the maximum reduction of population exposure could be achieved by means of timely evacuation to uncontaminated territory together with the indoor radon prevention measures.

A reanalysis of fine particulate matter air pollution versus life expectancy in the United States

A reduction in population exposure to fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) has been associated with improvements in life expectancy. This article presents a reanalysis of this relationship and comments on the results from a study on the reduction of ambient air PM2.5 concentrations versus life expectancy in metropolitan areas of the United States. The results of the reanalysis show that the statistical significance of the correlation is lost after removing one of the metropolitan areas from the regression analysis, suggesting that the results may not be suitable for a meaningful and reliable inference. Implications: The observed loss of statistical significance in the correlation between the reduction of ambient air PM2.5 concentrations and life expectancy in metropolitan areas of the United States, after removing one of the metropolitan areas from the regression analysis, may raise concern for the policymakers in decisions regarding further reductions in permitted levels of air pollution emissions.

Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and diabetes-associated mortality: a cohort study

The aim of this study was to investigate whether air pollution from traffic at a residence is associated with mortality related to type 1 or type 2 diabetes. We followed up 52,061 participants in the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort for diabetes-related mortality in the nationwide Register of Causes of Death, from baseline in 1993-1997 up to the end of 2009, and traced their residential addresses since 1971 in the Central Population Registry. We used dispersion-modelled concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) since 1971 and amount of traffic at the baseline residence as indicators of traffic-related air pollution and used Cox regression models to estimate mortality-rate ratios (MRRs) with adjustment for potential confounders. Mean levels of NO₂ at the residence since 1971 were significantly associated with mortality from diabetes. Exposure above 19.4 μg/m³ (upper quartile) was associated with a MRR of 2.15 (95% CI 1.21, 3.83) when compared with below 13.6 μg/m³ (lower quartile), corresponding to an MRR of 1.31 (95% CI 0.98, 1.76) per 10 μg/m³ NO₂ after adjustment for potential confounders. This study suggests that traffic-related air pollution is associated with mortality from diabetes. If confirmed, reduction in population exposure to traffic-related air pollution could be an additional strategy against the global public health burden of diabetes.

A reanalysis of fine particulate matter air pollution versus life expectancy in the United States

A reduction in population exposure to fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) has been associated with improvements in life expectancy. This article presents a reanalysis of this relationship and comments on the results from a study on the reduction of ambient air PM2.5 concentrations versus life expectancy in metropolitan areas of the United States. The results of the reanalysis show that the statistical significance of the correlation is lost after removing one of the metropolitan areas from the regression analysis, suggesting that the results may not be suitable for a meaningful and reliable inference. Implications: The observed loss of statistical significance in the correlation between the reduction of ambient air PM2.5 concentrations and life expectancy in metropolitan areas of the United States, after removing one of the metropolitan areas from the regression analysis, may raise concern for the policymakers in decisions regarding further reductions in permitted levels of air pollution emissions.

The extension of smoke-free areas and acute myocardial infarction mortality: before and after study

ObjectivesRecent studies suggest that comprehensive smoking regulations to decrease exposure to second-hand smoke reduce the rates of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The objective of this paper is to analyse if...

ReSCA: decision support tool for remediation planning after the Chernobyl accident

Radioactive contamination of the environment following the Chernobyl accident still provide a substantial impact on the population of affected territories in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. Reduction of population exposure can be achieved by performing remediation activities in these areas. Resulting from the IAEA Technical Co-operation Projects with these countries, the program ReSCA (Remediation Strategies after the Chernobyl Accident) has been developed to provide assistance to decision makers and to facilitate a selection of an optimized remediation strategy in rural settlements. The paper provides in-depth description of the program, its algorithm, and structure.

Consideration of background exposures in the management of hazardous waste sites: a new approach to risk assessment.

The current approach to health risk assessment of toxic waste sites in the U.S. may lead to considerable expenditure of resources without any meaningful reduction in population exposure. Risk assessment methods used generally ignore background exposures and consider only incremental risk estimates for maximally exposed individuals. Such risk estimates do not address true public health risks to which background exposures also contribute. The purpose of this paper is to recommend a new approach to risk assessment and risk management concerning toxic waste sites. Under this new approach, which we have called public health risk assessment, chemical substances would be classified into a level of concern based on the potential health risks associated with typical national and regional background exposures. Site assessment would then be based on the level of concern for the particular pollutants involved and the potential contribution of site contaminants to typical background human exposures. While various problems can be foreseen with this approach, the key advantage is that resources would be allocated to reduce the most important sources of human exposure, and site remediation decisions could be simplified by focussing on exposure assessment rather than questionable risk extrapolations.