Raising dikes and managed realignment may be insufficient for maintaining current flood risk along the German Baltic Sea coast

Abstract

Without upgrading existing adaptation, Germany is projected to be among those European countries that will suffer severe flood damages in 2100. Here we use a validated modeling framework to explore the effectiveness of two hypothetical upgrades to existing dike lines in reducing flood extent and population exposure along the German Baltic Sea coast. We perform a number of model runs where we increase the heights of existing dikes by 1.5 m, implement managed realignment as a nature-based solution, where physically plausible, and run a 200-year surge under two sea-level rise scenarios (1 and 1.5 m). We show that managed realignment is more effective in reducing future population exposure to coastal flooding compared to increasing dike heights. However, the maximum reduction in population exposure compared to a do-nothing approach amounts to only 26%, suggesting that even managed realignment is insufficient to maintain flood risk at today´s levels. The greatest potential for protecting people and property from future flooding lies in developing adaptation strategies for currently unprotected coastal sections.