National Emission Reduction Research Articles

Multi-level policies for air quality: implications of national and sub-national emission reductions on population exposure

Poor air quality and related health impacts are still an issue in many cities and regions worldwide. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) can support the design of measures to reduce the emissions of precursors affecting air pollution. In this study, we apply the SHERPA (screening for high emission reduction potentials for air quality) model to compare spatial and sectoral emission reductions, given country-scale emission targets. Different approaches are tested: (a) country ”uniform” emission reductions, (b) emission reductions targeting urban areas, (c) emission reductions targeting preferential sectors. As a case study, we apply the approaches to the implementation of the National Emission Ceiling Directive. Results are evaluated in terms of the reduction in average population exposure to PM2.5 overall in a country and in its main cities. Results indicate that the reduction of population exposure to PM2.5 highly depends on the way emission reductions are implemented. This work also shows the usefulness of the SHERPA model to support national authorities implementing national emission reduction targets while, at the same time, addressing their local air quality issues.

Achieving the 2°C goal: the potential of India’s building sector

ABSTRACT India’s growth of energy demand in the building stock, and efforts to curb it, are placed into an international context by adapting the reporting criteria developed for the Global Alliance on Building & Construction's (GABC) Global Status Report (2017) on buildings and construction. A survey of state and non-state actor climate commitments submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) Non State Actors Zone for Climate Action (NAZCA) database and recent research on the status of building energy codes and standards globally are also presented. To contribute to a 2°C pathway, India must achieve a 50% reduction in building energy demand and related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. India is taking steps toward this goal through initiatives such as recent upgrades to the Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC), encouraging green building rating and energy certification, and stimulating markets for low-carbon/high-efficiency technologies. However, despite improvements in building energy intensity, neither the global or the Indian building sectors are currently decarbonizing. The adoption of consistent national energy and GHG emission reduction goals could further align national, subnational and private-sector climate action commitments to facilitate a transition to a low-carbon emissions pathway and contribute to limiting global warming to well below 2°C.

Regional and National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Planning

A Process Integration framework for estimating potential greenhouse gas emissions reductions from the industrial process heat sector is presented. It is important that Process Integration principles are applied to reduction measures to achieve the greatest benefits and avoid incorrect or sub-optimal integration (e.g. inappropriate placements of heat pumps). The basis of the framework develops process temperature demand profiles for industrial heating and cooling demand, allows targeting to be carried out, and provide a standard to assess emissions reduction measures against. In the method specific reduction measures are identified, which are integration appropriately and calculates the Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) for each measure. MAC curves for individual processes or sectors can then be developed and compared, which are useful tools to assist in development of public policy tools that target emissions reduction from the industrial sector. Regional and national reduction potentials and estimates of costs can be estimated using the described framework. The formulation of good policy to encourage industry to transition to a low/zero carbon paradigm is essential for countries to meet their international emission reduction commitments. Preliminary results from an on-going study into New Zealand’s industrial emissions is presented including MAC curves for two major processes, which show that a 6 % reduction in national industrial emissions can be made economically at current carbon costs from these two processes alone.

Energy efficiency – indoor air quality dilemma in public buildings

The energy efficiency – indoor air quality dilemma is a common predicament in many buildings undergoing energy efficiency improvements. The main goal of this research is to study the impact of this dilemma on national final energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission reduction. A simulation using a system dynamics model was carried out. The stock of public buildings was split into four sub-categories based on when the buildings were constructed. Natural ventilation is used in all buildings before renovation. After implementing energy efficiency measures, two scenarios are simulated: one with and one without mechanical ventilation. Buildings constructed between 1940 and 1992 exhibit the greatest increase in both floor areas with energy efficiency measures and profitability ratio. The simulation results show that if ventilation is operated according to national building standards, total energy consumption in public buildings increases by 1.3 % in 2014 and by 2 % in 2040 compared to the situation where there is no mechanical ventilation. If the implementation of the energy efficiency measures is increasing at higher rate, the difference between both alternatives is increasing more. Energy efficiency measures in public buildings reduce national energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. However these measures also reduce indoor air quality thereby causing losses of productivity of the building occupants.

Measuring and explaining the EU’s effect on national climate performance

ABSTRACTTo what extent has the European Union (EU) had a benign or retarding effect on what its member states would have undertaken in the absence of EU climate policies during 2008–2012? A measurement tool for the EU policy’s effect is developed and shows a benign average EU effect with considerable variation across countries. The EU’s policy effectiveness vis-à-vis its member states is explained by the EU’s non-compliance mechanism, the degree of usage of the Kyoto flexible mechanisms, and national pre-Kyoto emission reduction goals. Time-series cross-sectional analyses show that the EU’s non-compliance mechanism has no effect, while the ex-ante plans for using Kyoto flexible mechanisms and/or the ambitious pre-Kyoto emission reduction targets allow member states to escape constraints imposed by EU climate policy.

Climate change: Back to development

The Paris Agreement has created a double bifurcation. First, from top-down approach (with an emission limit imposed from above) to a bottom-up approach based on national emissions reduction pledges. And second, from a mitigation-centered policy to a more balanced mitigation and adaptation efforts. The following work proposes, however, that further steps must be taken to bring the theme of development back to the center of the fight against climate change.

Assessing Multiple Pathways for Achieving China’s National Emissions Reduction Target

In order to achieve China’s target of carbon intensity emissions reduction in 2030, there is a need to identify a scientific pathway and feasible strategies. In this study, we used stochastic frontier analysis method of energy efficiency, incorporating energy structure, economic structure, human capital, capital stock and potential energy efficiency to identify an efficient pathway for achieving emissions reduction target. We set up 96 scenarios including single factor scenarios and multi-factors combination scenarios for the simulation. The effects of each scenario on achieving the carbon intensity reduction target are then evaluated. It is found that: (1) Potential energy efficiency has the greatest contribution to the carbon intensity emissions reduction target; (2) they are unlikely to reach the 2030 carbon intensity reduction target of 60% by only optimizing a single factor; (3) in order to achieve the 2030 target, several aspects have to be adjusted: the fossil fuel ratio must be lower than 80%, and its average growth rate must be decreased by 2.2%; the service sector ratio in GDP must be higher than 58.3%, while the growth rate of non-service sectors must be lowered by 2.4%; and both human capital and capital stock must achieve and maintain a stable growth rate and a 1% increase annually in energy efficiency. Finally, the specific recommendations of this research were discussed, including constantly improved energy efficiency; the upgrading of China’s industrial structure must be accelerated; emissions reduction must be done at the root of energy sources; multi-level input mechanisms in overall levels of education and training to cultivate the human capital stock must be established; investment in emerging equipment and accelerate the closure of backward production capacity to accumulate capital stock.

Synthesis of Carbon Integration Networks Coupled with Hydrate Suppression and Dehydration Options

Abstract The excessive increase in carbon dioxide emissions through the past several decades has raised global climate change concerns. As such, environmental policy makers have been looking into the implementation of efficient strategies that would ultimately reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels, and meet strict emissions targets. As part of a national emission reduction strategy, the reduction of carbon-dioxide emissions from industrial activities has been proven to be very significant. This instigated the need for a systematic carbon integration approach that can yield cost-effective carbon integration networks, while meeting prescribed carbon dioxide emission reduction targets in industrial cities. A novel carbon integration methodology has been previously proposed as a carbon network source-sink mapping approach using a Mixed Integer Nonlinear Program (MINLP), and was found to be very effective to devise emission control strategies in industrial cities. This paper aims to further improve the design process of carbon integration networks, by coupling carbon integration networks with hydrate suppression/moisture removal options. This was found vital for the prevention of any potential hazards that are associated with the transportation of carbon dioxide in pipelines, such as hydrate formation and various corrosion effects, which may result from moisture retention. An extensive analysis of carbon capture, dehydration, inhibition, compression, and transmission options have all been incorporated into the network design process, in the course of determining cost-optimal solutions for carbon dioxide networks. The proposed approach has been illustrated using an industrial city case study.

Can degrowth overcome the leakage problem of unilateral climate policy?

Unilateral climate policy suffers from carbon leakage, i.e. the (partial) offset of the initial emission reduction by increases in other countries. Different than most typically discussed climate policies, degrowth not only aims at reducing the fossil fuel use in an economy, but rather (besides other social and political goals) at a reduction of all factor inputs, which may lead to different leakage implications. We conduct the first investigation of degrowth in a multi-country setting in order to (i) compare the leakage effects of national pure emission reduction policies to degrowth scenarios, (ii) identify underlying channels by decomposing the implied emission changes into scale, composition, and technique effects, and (iii) investigate which country characteristics determine degrowth's relative effectiveness to overcome the leakage problem. Using a structural gravity model, we find that degrowth indeed significantly reduces leakage by keeping the sectoral composition of the country more stable and reducing uncommitted countries' incentives to shift towards more energy-intensive production techniques. The higher effectiveness of degrowth in reducing carbon emissions is most pronounced for small and trade-open economies with comparatively clean production technologies.

Optimum Solution to the Problem of Controlling Air Pollution

The problem of air pollution in our country is very serious. The relevant control measures and governance effects have drawn much attention. In this paper, aiming at the problem of air pollution control in the case of a Steel Corp, first of all, in order to achieve the national emission reduction standards and to achieve the minimum pollution control costs as the optimization goal, we established a linear programming mathematical model and solved the result by using lingo software. The sensitivity of the results is analyzed. The results show that, in the case of comprehensive utilization of the three pollution control measures, the minimum annual expenditure of 32.1546 million dollars can achieve the annual emission reduction requirements of the government. This article can provide scientific guidance for enterprises to formulate the optimal emission reduction solutions, which has some reference value and practical significance.

Assessing the evolution of power sector carbon intensity in the United States

In the United States, the electricity sector is a major focus for implementing policies to meet national, state, or local mandatory or voluntary CO2 emissions reductions goals. Thus, it is important to have timely and available information on greenhouse gas emissions generated by the power sector to ensure that the policies implemented achieve intended emissions reductions. This work is the first to develop a transparent method to compute the emissions intensity for the US electricity section from 2001 through 2017 at different temporal (annual, quarterly, monthly) and regional (US, NERC, and state) levels. We find that between 2001 and 2017 the average annual CO2 emissions intensity of electricity production in the United States decreased by 30%, from 630 g CO2 kWh−1 to 439 g CO2 kWh−1. This change in CO2 intensity is attributable to an increase in generation from natural gas and wind accompanied by a reduction in coal-fired power generation. The decline in carbon intensity varies across regions, with the largest reduction between 2001 and 2017 from power plants in the Northeast (58%) and the smallest reduction from power plants in the Texas region (27%). In absolute terms the South-central region saw the largest decrease in emissions intensity (358 g CO2 kWh−1) and Texas saw the smallest (164 g CO2 kWh−1). We also find that replacing coal generation with natural gas or renewables has increased the monthly correlation of CO2 intensity between regions. At the state level, Delaware saw the largest decrease in CO2 intensity (466 g CO2 kWh−1), and Idaho is the only state that has not decreased CO2 intensity since 2001.

Spatiotemporal simulation and comprehensive evaluation of atmospheric coal-related PAHs emission reduction in China

As the world’s largest consumer of coal, China is now facing serious pollution of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) produced by coal utilization processes, i.e., coal-related PAHs, which should be of concern for relevant policy-makers. Based on the interrelationships among coal-related PAHs emission, coal consumption and socio-economic development, this study applied a coupled method of system dynamics (SD) and geographic information system (GIS) to successfully model the spatiotemporal changing processes of coal-related PAHs emission reduction in China’s 31 provinces. In these models, four different policies including industry structure adjustment, energy consumption structure adjustment, industrial emission control and household emission control were quantitatively designed to evaluate the emission reduction differences from national and provincial perspectives. And then, cluster analysis was used to identify the provinces with similar policy effects. The results indicated that, without any policy stimulation, atmospheric coal-related PAHs emission in China would maintain a gradual growth trend. The implementation of energy consumption structure adjustment had better national emission reduction effect than the other three policies, while not all provinces could succeed in emission reduction when the four policies were implemented, respectively. Besides, the different policy effects among provinces resulted from their development discrepancies in industry structure, energy structure and emission source characteristics. Therefore, to simultaneously realize the maximum national emission reduction effect and the integrated emission reduction for different provinces, all provinces should take energy consumption structure adjustment as the guiding policy and consider their targeted policies as supplementary. In short, the coupled SD-GIS method can be used to comprehensively analyze the spatiotemporal variations of unconventional atmospheric pollutants and the specific impacts of pollution control policies, which will provide a theoretical basis for local governments to reasonably direct the coordinated development of regional economy, energy structure and environmental quality.

Comparative analysis of regional carbon emissions accounting methods in China: Production-based versus consumption-based principles

Abstract The analysis of the characteristics of carbon flows between regions is critical for China to deploy effective regional mitigation strategies. Different accounting principles exert a significant influence on China’s regional carbon emissions, especially the fairness of carbon emission reduction targets, and the responsibility for reducing emissions. An input-output model was established, based on the input-output data of 2007 and 2012, to evaluate the characteristics of regional carbon flow and the change in carbon emission from different industries, and to analyse the changes in carbon emissions under production-based, and consumption-based, principles in 30 provinces. The results show that the carbon emissions in each region and sector are different: from the eastern region to the western region they show a downward trend, and the embodied carbon flow accounts for a large proportion of the total. Secondary industries are a major contributor to carbon emissions and there is a signifiant influence exerted on the results of carbon emission accounting in various provinces of China under different accounting principles. Therefore, to meet national emission reduction targets, the provinces need to pay considerable attention to the choice of accounting principles and achieve the principle of fairness and impartiality. It will provide a reference for the future division of responsibility for carbon emissions in provinces of China.

Quantifying carbon capture potential and cost of carbon capture technology application in the U.S. refining industry

Carbon capture (CC) technology is receiving increasing attention as a critical technology for climate change mitigation. Most previous studies focus on the application of CC technology in the power generation sector, while fewer studies have analyzed applications in the refining industry, which is one of the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions sources in the U.S. industrial sector. Unlike the power generation sector, the refining industry has highly distributed CO2 emission sources. In this paper, bottom-up modeling and techno-economic analysis approaches are integrated to quantify the national CO2 emission reduction potential and costs of three types of CC technologies applied to U.S. refineries: (1) pre-combustion, (2) post-combustion, and (3) oxyfuel-combustion. Two scenarios are developed to compare different design strategies for CC systems; one is a distributed design scenario for post-combustion technology, the other is a centralized design scenario for pre-combustion and oxyfuel-combustion technology. The results of the two scenarios are compared, and the trade-offs between different design strategies are highlighted. The results shown in this study provide an intuitive and quantitative understanding of the potential of CC technology to reduce CO2 emissions from the U.S. refining industry. Such information is helpful to policymakers, oil companies, and energy/environmental analysts for strategic planning and systems design to manage future CO2 emissions of refineries.

Perspectives of Geological CO2 Storage in South Korea to Cope with Climate Change

Rapid industrialization and urbanization in the 20th century have led to increasing volumes of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere[...]

The undervalued contribution of mangrove protection in Mexico to carbon emission targets

AbstractMangrove deforestation threatens to release large stores of carbon from soils that are vulnerable to oxidation. Carbon stored in deep soils is not measured in national carbon inventories. Thus, policies on emission reductions have likely underestimated the contribution of mangrove deforestation to national emissions. Here, we estimate that emissions from deforestation and degradation of mangroves in Mexico are 31 times greater than the values used to determine national emission reduction targets for the Paris Agreement. Thus, Mexico has vastly undervaluated the potential of mangrove protection to reduce its emissions. Accounting for carbon emissions from mangrove soils should greatly increase the priority of mangrove forests to receive funding for protection under carbon trading programs.

Assessing the role of international trade in global CO2 emissions: An index decomposition analysis approach

Trade-related CO2 emissions are an important component in global emissions. Understanding the role of international trade in emissions is of direct relevance to global and national emission reductions, particularly for major exporters and importers. In the literature, the issue has seldom been studied using index decomposition analysis (IDA), which is a popular tool in assessing growth in national-level CO2 emissions. In this paper, based on a multi-region I-O analysis, we introduce three inter-linked IDA models to quantify the impacts of trade on the production-based emissions, the consumption-based emissions, and the emission balance of economies, respectively. A salient feature of the models, when applied together, is that they can help to assess the role of trade and the emission performance of economies from multiple perspectives. We discuss the relevant methodological issues as well as the advantages and limitations of the models. We then apply the models to evaluate the impact of international trade on changes in global CO2 emissions from 1995 to 2009. It is found that while the growing trade volume drove up the total emissions, changes in the emission intensity and goods composition related to trade led to some degree of emission mitigation, particularly after 2005.

Impact, efficiency, inequality, and injustice of urban air pollution: variability by emission location

Reducing exposure to air pollution is an important goal for many local and national governments. Disparities in air pollution exposure by race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic class are well documented; reducing these disparities is another important policy target. Meeting both goals requires tools to evaluate how emission reduction options affect average exposures and exposure disparities. Here, we consider the role of emission location in implementing control strategies, and investigate the effect of two practical, space-based approaches—low-emission zones and truck rerouting—on diesel particle levels in Southern California. We employ Eulerian grid modeling to explore the impact that emission location has on four outcomes important to policymakers: total pollution exposure, exposure efficiency (i.e. exposure impact per unit emission), exposure inequality (i.e. deviations from exposure being equally distributed across the population; unequal exposure among individuals), and exposure injustice (i.e. associations between exposure and demographic attributes such as race or ethnicity; unequal exposure among groups). Our results highlight potential trade-offs (e.g. an increase in equality but reduction in justice for interventions in some locations) as well as opportunities for ‘win-win’ solutions (locations for which emission reductions would reduce all four target outcomes). We find that a simple, straightforward approach—reducing emissions in neighborhoods with a high proportion of minority residents—may or may not yield the strongest benefits to environmental justice; the reason is that the straightforward approach fails to account for meteorology and where pollution travels after being emitted. In short, we demonstrate an approach that can be used to identify areas in which emissions reductions would have high efficiency and would also result in disproportionately large reductions to average exposure, exposure inequality, and exposure injustice. The approach presented here could be used to design and prioritize local or national emission reduction efforts.

Simulation Study on Hot Stamping Forming of the Drive Axle Housing of Heavy Truck

Aiming at the national energy-saving and emission reduction requirements, lightweight of the heavy truck is imminent. Several parameters related to hot stamping forming process of heavy truck drive axle housing are studied in this paper. The results show that the existing two-step stamping with air cooling molding process, can be improved into one-step hot stamping process. The initial temperature of the blank, stamping speed and other parameters related to the forming process were optimized. The results provides useful reference for improving the existing forming process of the drive axle housing, and it is also helpful for realizing the lightweight design of drive axle housing.

A Four-Step Process for Formulating and Evaluating Legal Commitments Under the Paris Agreement

This paper describes a four-step process to guide national governments in formulating and explaining greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. The NDC pledges in aggregate are intended to achieve the Paris Agreement’s warming limit goal to hold the increase in the global temperature to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. Nations also agreed in the Paris Agreement that their mitigation pledges would be based on equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances. This paper describes the four steps that are required to fulfil these commitments, and to ensure that the NDCs are sufficiently transparent to allow the Paris Agreement’s ‘stocktake’ process and ‘transparency mechanism’ to achieve their goal of increasing the NDCs’ ambition and fairness. The four steps are necessary to implement the legal obligations of the parties under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. These four steps are: (1) Select a global warming limit to be achieved by the GHG emissions reduction target; (2) Identify a global carbon budget consistent with achieving the global warming limit at an acceptable probability; (3) Determine the national fair share of the global carbon budget based upon equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities; and, (4) Specify the annual rate of national GHG emissions reductions on the pathway to net zero emissions.