Reduction In Incidence Rate Research Articles

SARS-CoV-2 in Nursing Homes after 3 Months of Serial, Facilitywide Point Prevalence Testing, Connecticut, USA.

Nursing homes house populations that are highly vulnerable to coronavirus disease. Point prevalence surveys (PPSs) provide information on the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection status of staff and residents in nursing homes and enable isolation of infectious persons to halt disease spread. We collected 16 weeks of public health surveillance data on a subset of nursing homes (34/212) in Connecticut, USA. We fit a Poisson regression model to evaluate the association between incidence and time since serial PPS onset, adjusting for decreasing community incidence and other factors. Nursing homes conducted a combined total of 205 PPSs in staff and 232 PPSs in residents. PPS was associated with 41%–80% reduction in incidence rate in nursing homes. Our findings provide support for the use of repeated PPSs in nursing home staff and residents, combined with strong infection prevention measures such as cohorting, in contributing to outbreak control.

Impact of ShotSpotter Technology on Firearm Homicides and Arrests Among Large Metropolitan Counties: a Longitudinal Analysis, 1999-2016.

Over the past decade, large urban counties have implemented ShotSpotter, a gun fire detection technology, across the USA. It uses acoustic listening devices to identify discharged firearms' locations. We examined the effect of ShotSpotter with a pooled, cross-sectional time-series analysis within the 68 large metropolitan counties in the USA from 1999 to 2016. We identified ShotSpotter implementation years through publicly available media. We used a Poisson distribution to model the impact of ShotSpotter on firearm homicides, murder arrests, and weapons arrests. ShotSpotter did not display protective effects for all outcomes. Counties in states with permit-to-purchase firearm laws saw a 15% reduction in firearm homicide incidence rates; counties in states with right-to-carry laws saw a 21% increase in firearm homicide incidence rates. Results suggest that implementing ShotSpotter technology has no significant impact on firearm-related homicides or arrest outcomes. Policy solutions may represent a more cost-effective measure to reduce urban firearm violence.

PREVALENCE OF OSTEOPOROSIS AND ITS IMPACT ON QUALITY OF LIFE OF PRE AND POST MENOPAUSAL WOMEN

Background: Globally, osteoporosis is one of the major health concerns as there is a drastic increase in incident of osteoporotic related fractures. It is a silent bone disease which is characterized by a progressive decrease in bone mass and density(2). In Pakistan, occurrence of osteoporosis is quite common among females and negatively affects patient’s quality of life.(6)
 Aims and Objectives: The aim of current study is to associate the osteoporosis prevalence in both pre and post menopause, and also to evaluate quality of life and its awareness.
 Methodology: A survey based study was conducted and data was collected from patients by using a questionnaireand analyzed by the application of statistics.
 Results: The results of current study have revealed that incidence of osteoporosis is greater in post menopausal women as compared to pre menopausal women. High occurrence of disease in post menopausal is due to a direct relationship between levels of estrogen and osteoporosis. In post menopausal women decrease level of estrogen enhances bone reabsorption which causes increase bone fragility. Hence, all the post menopausal women should be evaluated for osteoporosis.
 Conclusion: Lack of understanding about disease, imbalance diet, poor treatment and diagnosis increase the risk for developing osteoporosis. Furthermore severe pain, deprive of sleep and inability to do work also adds to the demotion in patient’s quality of life. So in order to reduce incidence rate and for the betterment in quality of patient’s life having osteoporosis, it is necessary to promote awareness, modification in life style, patient counseling, accessibility to treatment and prior diagnosis of disease

Changes in Notifiable Infectious Diseases in China During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A National Surveillance Study

Background: Nationwide nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) were used to combat the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during 2020 in the mainland of China. These NPIs have proven effective on mitigating the spread of COVID-19, but their broad impact on other diseases remains under-investigated. In this study, we aim to assess whether such broad impact exists on notifiable diseases in China.Methods: Weekly incidence and mortality data for 31 major notifiable infectious diseases at the province level were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention from 2014 to 2020. We assessed the impact of NPIs by contrasting the incidences of each infectious disease in predefined COVID-19 phases during 2020 to the average incidences in the corresponding time intervals during 2014-2019.Findings: We observed decreased incidences of most diseases during the phases after the lockdown of Wuhan. In general, respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases were more affected than sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases and vector-borne or zoonotic diseases. Seasonal flu and rubella were the most sensitive to the NPIs, with reductions of 67-99% in incidence rates throughout the NPI-implemented phases in China (Jan 27-Dec 31, 2020). Among gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases, the hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) was subject to the largest declines during Jan 27-Aug 31, 2020, with >90% reduction in incidence rate. Phases with more stringent NPIs were associated with more reductions. Non-respiratory diseases, particularly HFMD, gonorrhea and brucellosis, rebounded towards the end of the year as the NPIs were relaxed.Interpretation: NPIs are broadly effective in containing infectious diseases. Less disruptive NPIs such as wearing face masks are still effective in mitigating respiratory diseases but are not adequate for containing non-respiratory diseases.Funding Statement: This work was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Funds [91846302, 81825019], the China Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention [2018ZX10713001, 2018ZX10713002, 2018ZX10201001 and 2017ZX10103004], and the US National Institutes of Health [R56 AI148284].Declaration of Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.Ethics Approval Statement: Missing.

The Impact of an Inactivated Hepatitis A Vaccine with One Dose in Brazil: A Retrospective Time-Series.

Background: In 2014, a recommended one-dose of inactivated hepatitis A vaccine was included in the Brazilian National Immunization Program targeting children 12–24 months. This decision addressed the low to intermediate endemicity status of hepatitis A across Brazil and the high rate of infection in children and adolescents between 5 and 19 years old. The aim of the study was to conduct a time-series analysis on hepatitis A incidence across age groups and to assess the hepatitis A distribution throughout Brazilian geographic regions. Methods: An interrupted time-series analysis was performed to assess hepatitis A incidence rates before (2010–2013) and after (2015–2018) hepatitis A vaccine program implementation. The time-series analysis was stratified by age groups while a secondary analysis examined geographic distribution of hepatitis A cases. Results: Overall incidence of hepatitis A decreased from 3.19/100.000 in the pre-vaccine period to 0.87/100.000 (p = 0.022) post-vaccine introduction. Incidence rate reduction was higher among children aged 1-4 years old, with an annual reduction of 67.6% in the post-vaccination period against a 7.7% annual reduction in the pre-vaccination period (p < 0.001). Between 2015 and 2018, the vaccination program prevented 14,468 hepatitis A cases. Conclusion: Our study highlighted the positive impact of a recommended one-dose inactivated hepatitis A vaccine for 1–4-years-old in controlling hepatitis A at national level.

Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Control: An Overview

Tuberculosis is an age-long disease that has proved challenging to eradicate. In 2019 about 10 million people fell ill of TB and it has caused 1.2 million deaths among HIV negative people and 208,000 deaths among HIV positive individuals [1]. The reduction in incidence rate between 2015 and 2019 was 9% and global target for 2030 is 80% [1]. For the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO’s End TB Strategy the following should be considered; (1) breaking the transmission cascade of tuberculosis infection (2) effective management of the risk factors of spreading TB infection (3) administering workable preventive policy for individual health sector, and (4) prompt and effective standard control method. Tuberculosis infection is a must to eradicate, hence all stakeholders should come together for the patients, health care workers and policy makers to achieve End TB by 2035.

Sustained reduction in catheter-associated urinary tract infections using multi-faceted strategies led by champions: A quality improvement initiative.

We reviewed the sustainability of a multifaceted intervention on catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) in 3 intensive care units. During the 4-year postintervention period, we observed reductions in urine culture rates (from 80.9 to 47.5 per 1,000 patient days; P < .01), catheter utilization (from 0.68 to 0.58; P < .01), and CAUTI incidence rates (from 1.7 to 0.8 per 1,000 patient days; P = .16).

Association between bariatric surgery and risks of cancer among Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A retrospective cohort study.

To examine risks of cancers, obesity-related cancers (eg, cancers in digestive organs, breast, ovary, kidney, thyroid, and myeloma), cancer-related mortality, and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity who underwent bariatric surgery. A retrospective cohort of 1944 T2DM patients with obesity (345 bariatric surgery patients and 1599 matched controls) who were free of cancer from 2006 to 2017 was assembled. One-to-five propensity score matching followed by propensity score trimming was used to balance baseline covariates. During a mean follow-up period of 37 months, there are risks that in 3.2%, 1.4%, 0.9%, and 3.2% of bariatric patients cancer, obesity-related cancer, cancer-related mortality, and all-cause mortality, respectively, would occur. Surgical patients were found to have reduced incidence rates (IRs) of obesity-related cancer (0.531/100 person-years, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.172-1.238/100 person-years) and cancer of breast and genital organs (0.394/100 person-years, 95% CI: 0.048-1.424/100 person-years) than matched control patients whose IRs for obesity-related cancer and cancer of breast and genital organs were 0.627/100 person-years (95% CI: 0.426-0.889/100 person-years) and 0.521/100 person-years (95% CI: 0.277-0.891/100 person-years), respectively. Patients in the surgical group had a significant reduction in risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]=0.508, P=.041). Effects of bariatric surgery on any cancers (HR=1.254, P=.510), obesity-related cancers (HR=0.843, P=.724), and cancer mortality (HR=1.304, P=.694) were not significant. Bariatric surgery was not associated with risks of overall cancer, obesity-related cancer, and cancer mortality among T2DM patients with obesity at 3 years.

Effects of changes in regular physical activity status on hip fracture: A nationwide population-based cohort study in Korea.

ObjectiveHip fracture incidence is increasing with rapid aging of the population and regular physical activity (RPA) is an important modifiable protective factor for fracture. However, the association between the risk of hip fractures and changes in RPA status in the general population remains unknown. Thus, we explore the association between the risk of hip fracture and changes in RPA status.MethodsWe studied 4,984,144 individuals without fractures within a year whose data were registered in the Korean National Health Insurance Service database. Baseline physical activity level was assessed using a standardized self-reported questionnaire during two consecutive national health screening surveys performed in Korea from 2009 to 2012. The risk of hip fracture between 2013 and 2016 according to change in RPA was prospectively analyzed. Participants were divided into those who were always inactive, became inactive, became active, and were always active.ResultsCompared to participants who were always inactive, those who became inactive exhibited a 0.12/1,000 person-years (PY) reduction in hip fracture incidence rate (IR) [aHR: 0.865; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.824–0.908]. Participants who became active, and those who were always active, exhibited a 0.24/1,000 PY reduction in IR (aHR: 0.827; 95% CI: 0.787–0.870) and a 0.39/1,000 PY reduction in IR (aHR: 0.691; 95% CI: 0.646–0.740), respectively.ConclusionChanges in RPA status were associated with the risk of hip fracture; consistent RPA was related to the maximum benefit for risk reduction in the general population.

Incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus in Ireland remains high but no longer rising.

The global incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) varies considerably geographically. Ireland has a high incidence of T1DM. Incidence accelerated between 1997 and 2008, although more recent data (2008-2013) suggested stabilisation in the incidence rate (IR). This study sought to determine IRs for 2014 to 2018. Incident cases were prospectively recorded through the established Irish Childhood Diabetes National Register (ICDNR). Cases were verified, and IRs were calculated. Capture-recapture methodology was identical to previous studies. Age and seasonality data were compared. A total of 1429 cases were reported (age range 0.45-14.98years), with significantly more males (772, 54%) and male-to-female ratio of 1.17 (95% CI 1.05, 1.29). Standardised IRs for T1DM in the period were 28.0; 29.6; 30.9; 27.0; and 27.1/100,000/year, respectively. There was a slight reduction in standardised IR, more marked in females than males (9.9% v 1.6%). The highest IR remains in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (44% of total cases). Seasonality of diagnosis is persistently higher in autumn and winter. Ireland remains a high incidence country, despite a minor reduction in incidence rates. Ongoing incidence monitoring through national registers is vital to inform healthcare services, research relating to aetiology and paediatric diabetes management.

Long-term effectiveness of population-wide multifaceted interventions for hepatocellular carcinoma in Taiwan

Taiwan has launched a series of population-wide interventions to prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) related to hepatitis B and C virus infection since 1984. We took this opportunity to investigate the impact of each intervention on the incidence and case-fatality rate of HCC, and assessed their relative contributions to the overall reduction in mortality during this period. Population-based registry data on HCC mortality and incidence from individuals aged 0 to 84 years between 1979 and 2016 were collected before (Period 1) and after universal hepatitis B vaccination from 1984 (Period 2), universal health care from 1995 (Period 3), and viral hepatitis therapy from 2003 (Period 4). A Bayesian Poisson regression model was used for mortality decomposition analysis to estimate the respective contributions of these interventions to the reduction in age-specific incidence and case-fatality rates. Mortality declined substantially in children, young- and middle-aged groups, but only slightly decreased in the elderly group. The declining trends in mortality were in part explained by incidence reduction and in part by a remarkable decline in case-fatality rate attributed to universal health care. Hepatitis B vaccination led to a 35.9% (26.8% to 44.4%) reduction in incidence for individuals aged 30 years or below, whereas antiviral therapy reduced the incidence of HCC by 14.9% (11.8% to 17.9%) and 15.4% (14.1% to 16.6%) for individuals aged 30-49 years and 50-69 years, respectively. Vaccination and antiviral therapy were effective in reducing HCC incidence and mortality for the young and middle-aged groups, while the case-fatality rate was improved by universal health care for all age groups. Since 1984, a series of population-wide interventions have been launched in Taiwan to prevent viral hepatitis-related hepatocellular carcinoma, including a universal hepatitis B vaccination program (from 1984), universal health care (from 1995), and a national viral hepatitis therapy program (from 2004). Vaccination and antiviral therapy were effective in reducing HCC incidence and mortality for the young and middle-aged groups, while the case-fatality rate was improved by universal health care for all age groups.

Alcohol policies, firearm policies, and suicide in the United States: a lagged cross-sectional study

BackgroundAlcohol and firearms are commonly involved in suicide in the United States. State alcohol and firearm policies may impact alcohol and firearm related suicide, yet little is known about these relationships. This study examines relationships between state alcohol and firearm policies and suicides involving alcohol, guns, or both, and explores interactive policy associations.MethodsAlcohol policies were assessed with the Alcohol Policy Scale. Firearm policies were assessed using the Gun Law Scorecard from Giffords Law Center. Suicide data from the National Violent Death Reporting System in 2015 covered 22 states. State- and individual-level GEE Poisson and logistic regression models assessed relationships between policies and firearm- and/or alcohol-involved suicides with a 1-year lag.ResultsIn 2015, there were 8996 suicide deaths with blood alcohol concentration test results in the 22 included states. Of those deaths, alcohol and/or firearms were involved in 5749 or 63.9%. Higher alcohol and gun law scores were associated with reduced incidence rates and odds of suicides involving either alcohol or firearms (adjusted incidence rate ratios [IRR] 0.72 (95% CI 0.63, 0.83) for alcohol policies, 0.86 (95% CI 0.82, 0.90) for firearm policies). Relationships were similar for suicides involving both alcohol and firearms, and there was an interactive effect, such that states with restrictive policies for both had the lowest rates of suicides involving alcohol or guns.ConclusionsMore restrictive alcohol and firearm policies are associated with lower rates and odds of suicides involving alcohol or firearms, and alcohol and firearms, and may be a promising means by which to reduce suicide.

Trend analysis of cardiovascular disease mortality, incidence, and mortality-to-incidence ratio: results from global burden of disease study 2017

BackgroundCardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are one of the global leading causes of concern due to the rising prevalence and consequence of mortality and disability with a heavy economic burden. The objective of the current study was to analyze the trend in CVD incidence, mortality, and mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) across the world over 28 years.MethodsThe age-standardized CVD mortality and incidence rates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2017 for both genders and different world super regions with available data every year during the period 1990–2017. Additionally, the Human Development Index was sourced from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) database for all countries at the same time interval. The marginal modeling approach was implemented to evaluate the mean trend of CVD incidence, mortality, and MIR for 195 countries and separately for developing and developed countries and also clarify the relationship between the indices and Human Development Index (HDI) from 1990 to 2017.ResultsThe obtained estimates identified that the global mean trend of CVD incidence had an ascending trend until 1996 followed by a descending trend after this year. Nearly all of the countries experienced a significant declining mortality trend from 1990 to 2017. Likewise, the global mean MIR rate had a significant trivial decrement trend with a gentle slope of 0.004 over the time interval. As such, the reduction in incidence and mortality rates for developed countries was significantly faster than developing counterparts in the period 1990–2017 (p < 0.05). Nevertheless, the developing nations had a more rather shallow decrease in MIR compared to developed ones.ConclusionsGenerally, the findings of this study revealed that there was an overall downward trend in CVD incidence and mortality rates, while the survival rate of CVD patients was rather stable. These results send a satisfactory message that global effort for controlling the CVD burden was quite successful. Nonetheless, there is an urgent need for more efforts to improve the survival rate of patients and lower the burden of this disease in some areas with an increasing trend of either incidence or mortality.

Temporal Trends of Candidemia Incidence Rates and Potential Contributions of Infection Control Initiatives Over 18 Years Within the United States Veterans Health Administration System: A Joinpoint Time-Series Analysis.

Candidemia is one of the most common causes of nosocomial bloodstream infections, but the impacts of factors affecting its incidence have not been evaluated. We analyzed a retrospective cohort of all candidemia patients at 130 acute care hospitals in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) system from January 2000 through December 2017. Cases were classified as hospital-onset (HO) and non-hospital-onset (NHO). We used Joinpoint regression analysis to assess temporal associations between significant changes in candidemia incidence rates and guidelines or horizontal infection control (IC) interventions. Over 18 years, 17 661 candidemia episodes were identified. Incidence rates of HO cases were increasing until the mid-2000s, followed by a sustained decline, while NHO cases showed a steady decline. The first change in HO candidemia incidence rates (August 2004 [95% confidence interval {CI}, February 2003-April 2005]) was preceded by the publication of catheter-related bloodstream infection (CRBSI) prevention guidelines and the CRBSI surveillance initiation. The second (September 2007 [95% CI, September 2006-June 2009]) had close temporal proximity to the expansion of IC resources within the VHA system. Collectively, these trend changes resulted in a 77.1% reduction in HO candidemia incidence rates since its peak in 2004. A substantial and sustained systemwide reduction in candidemia incidence rates was observed after the publication of guidelines, VHA initiatives about CRBSI reporting and education on CRBSI prevention, and the systemwide expansion of IC resources.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on primary care-recorded mental illness and self-harm episodes in the UK: a population-based cohort study

SummaryBackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected population mental health. We aimed to assess temporal trends in primary care-recorded common mental illness, episodes of self-harm, psychotropic medication prescribing, and general practitioner (GP) referrals to mental health services during the COVID-19 emergency in the UK.MethodsWe did a population-based cohort study using primary care electronic health records from general practices registered on the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). We included patient records from Jan 1, 2010, to Sept 10, 2020, to establish long-term trends and patterns of seasonality, but focused primarily on the period January, 2019–September, 2020. We extracted data on clinical codes entered into patient records to estimate the incidence of depression and anxiety disorders, self-harm, prescriptions for antidepressants and benzodiazepines, and GP referrals to mental health services, and assessed event rates of all psychotropic prescriptions and self-harm. We used mean-dispersion negative binomial regression models to predict expected monthly incidence and overall event rates, which were then compared with observed rates to assess the percentage reduction in incidence and event rates after March, 2020. We also stratified analyses by sex, age group, and practice-level Index of Multiple Deprivation quintiles.FindingsWe identified 14 210 507 patients from 1697 UK general practices registered in the CPRD databases. In April, 2020, compared with expected rates, the incidence of primary care-recorded depression had reduced by 43·0% (95% CI 38·3–47·4), anxiety disorders by 47·8% (44·3–51·2), and first antidepressant prescribing by 36·4% (33·9–38·8) in English general practices. Reductions in first diagnoses of depression and anxiety disorders were largest for adults of working age (18–44 and 45–64 years) and for patients registered at practices in more deprived areas. The incidence of self-harm was 37·6% (34·8–40·3%) lower than expected in April, 2020, and the reduction was greatest for women and individuals aged younger than 45 years. By September, 2020, rates of incident depression, anxiety disorder, and self-harm were similar to expected levels. In Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales, rates of incident depression and anxiety disorder remained around a third lower than expected to September, 2020. In April, 2020, the rate of referral to mental health services was less than a quarter of the expected rate for the time of year (75·3% reduction [74·0–76·4]).InterpretationConsequences of the considerable reductions in primary care-recorded mental illness and self-harm could include more patients subsequently presenting with greater severity of mental illness and increasing incidence of non-fatal self-harm and suicide. Addressing the effects of future lockdowns and longer-term impacts of economic instability on mental health should be prioritised.FundingNational Institute for Health Research and Medical Research Council.

1382. Varicella Burden Disease in Argentina: 4 Years after National Vaccination Strategy

BackgroundIn Argentina, around 150,000-180,000 total Varicella (VZV) cases per year (c/y) are registered; however, underreport exists and some 400,000 cases are estimated to occur annually. Varicella vaccine (VV) was included in the National Immunization Schedule (NIS) in 2015, with a 1-dose schedule administered at 15 months-of-age. We aimed to describe and to compare the epidemiological situation of VZV infections in Argentina in two periods: pre (2010-2014) and post (2016-2018) vaccine introduction in NIS.Global Incidence rates and vaccine coverages Incidence rates (age groups) MethodsBefore-and-after study comparing cases and incidence rates (100,000) of varicella reported to the National Health Surveillance System between pre-vaccination period (Pre-VV) and post-vaccination (Post-VV), excluding year of intervention (2015) since it was considered a transition year. Epi Info 7 was used for data analysis.ResultsVaccination coverage (VC) for 2015 was 44.7%; 74.4% in 2016; 76.8% in 2017 and 81% in 2018 (Figure 1). 728,392 cases of VZV were notified (R=363.1) in Pre-VV period and 222,305 cases in Post-VV (R=180.7), with a global incidence rate reduction of 49% (95%CI= 40.9-56.2; p< 0.001). Both 12-24 months of age and 2-4 years old groups (Pre-VV R=2,253 and Post-VV R=900; Pre-VV R=2,399 and Post-VV R=875, respectively) showed the greatest reductions in incidence rates (-59.3% [95%CI 58.7-60] p< 0.001 and -61.7% [95%CI 61.3-62] p< 0.001). Age groups not affected by vaccination (< 1 year, 5-9 years and 10-14 years) presented minor but significant reductions (-56.4% [95%CI 55.6-57.3] p< 0.001; -35% [95%CI 34.5-35.4] p< 0.001; and -28.6% [95%IC 27.6-29.7] p< 0.001 respectively) (Figure 2).ConclusionA decreasing trend in VZV number of cases and incidence rates was observed, especially in children less than 5 years old, despite suboptimal VC. The reduction of VZV cases in non-vaccinated age groups could be related to a decline in the transmission risk. Improving VC will likely reflect a greater impact on the burden of disease.Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

1701. Added Benefits of Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Use on HIV Incidence with Minimal Changes in Efficiency in the Context of High Treatment Engagement among Men Who Have Sex with Men

BackgroundAlthough there is ongoing debate over the need for substantial increases in PrEP use when antiretroviral treatment confers the dual benefits of reducing HIV-related morbidity and mortality and the risk of HIV transmission, no studies to date have quantified the potential added benefits of PrEP use in settings with high treatment engagement across variable sub-epidemics in the United States.MethodsWe used a previously published agent-based network model to simulate HIV transmission in a dynamic network of 17,440 Black/African American and White MSM in Atlanta, Georgia from 2015 to 2024 to understand how the magnitude of reductions in HIV incidence attributable to varying levels of PrEP use (0–90%) changes in potential futures where high levels of treatment engagement (i.e. the UNAIDS ‘90-90-90’ goals and eventual ‘95-95-95’ goals) are achieved and maintained, as compared to current levels of treatment engagement in Atlanta (Figure 1).Model inputs related to HIV treatment engagement among Black/African American and White men who have sex with men in Atlanta. A comparison of current levels of treatment engagement (Panel A) to treatment engagement at ‘90-90-90’ (Panel B) and ‘95-95-95’ goals (Panel C).ResultsEven at achievement and maintenance of ‘90-90-90’ goals, 75% PrEP coverage reduced incidence rates by an additional 67.9% and 74.2% to 1.53 (SI: 1.39, 1.70) and 0.355 (SI: 0.316, 0.391) per 100 person-years for Black/African American and White MSM, respectively (Figure 2), compared to the same scenario with no PrEP use. Additionally, an increase from 15% PrEP coverage to 75% under ‘90-90-90’ goals only increased person-years of PrEP use per HIV infection averted, a measure of efficiency of PrEP, by 8.1% and 10.5% to 26.7 (SI: 25.6, 28.0) and 73.3 (SI: 70.6, 75.7) among Black/African American MSM and White MSM, respectively (Figure 3). Overall (Panel A) and race-stratified (Panel B and Panel C) marginal changes in HIV incidence over ten years among Black/African American and White men who have sex with men in Atlanta across scenarios of varied levels of treatment engagement among agents living with HIV infection and levels of pre-exposure prophylaxis use among HIV-uninfected agents. Note: All changes are calculated within each set of treatment scenarios relative to a scenario where no agents use pre-exposure prophylaxis. Person-years of pre-exposure prophylaxis use per HIV infection averted among Black/African American (Panel A) and White (Panel B) men who have sex with men in Atlanta across scenarios of varied levels of treatment engagement among agents living with HIV infection and levels of pre-exposure prophylaxis use among HIV-uninfected agents. Note: The number of HIV infections averted is calculated within each set of treatment scenarios relative to a scenario where no agents use pre-exposure prophylaxis. ConclusionEven in the context of high treatment engagement, substantial expansion of PrEP use still contributes to meaningful decreases in HIV incidence among MSM with minimal changes in person-years of PrEP use per HIV infection averted, particularly for Black/African American MSM.Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

Social determinants and the Sustainable Development Goals' tuberculosis target in the AmericasDeterminantes sociais e a meta para a tuberculose dos Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável nas Américas

RESUMENObjetivo.Determinar el comportamiento de los indicadores de incidencia de tuberculosis (TB) y número de muertes por TB en el marco de la meta 3.3 de los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS) y su correlación con los determinantes sociales.Métodos.Se utilizó una metodología de estudio ecológico, en el cual la unidad de análisis es la población. Para el análisis de los determinantes sociales, se hizo uso del modelo de regresión binomial negativo y la fuerza de asociación.Resultados.En las Américas se ha presentado una disminución promedio anual en la tasa de incidencia de TB de 0,3% entre 2009 y 2018; sin embargo, de 2015 a 2018 ha habido un aumento, pasando de 27,6 a 28,8 por 100 000 habitantes. Con respecto a los determinantes sociales, los grupos de países con índice de desarrollo humano (IDH) y producto interno bruto (PIB) más bajos tienen una incidencia de TB más alta. El riesgo de TB en el país con IDH más bajo es seis veces mayor que en el país con IDH más alto.Conclusiones.Al ritmo de la disminución actual de la tasa de incidencia y del número de muertes por TB, la Región de las Américas no alcanzará las metas propuestas en los ODS y en la Estrategia Fin de la TB. Se requiere una implementación y expansión rápidas de las intervenciones en prevención y control de TB para lograrlo. Esto implica, entre otras acciones, reducir las barreras de acceso al diagnóstico y tratamiento y fortalecer las iniciativas para abordar los determinantes sociales.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality of patients with STEMI: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AimsSince the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, hospitals reported declining numbers of patients admitted with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), indicating that the pandemic might keep patients from seeking urgent...

Evidence for the Range Expansion of Ciguatera in French Polynesia: A Revisit of the 2009 Mass-Poisoning Outbreak in Rapa Island (Australes Archipelago).

Ciguatera poisoning (CP) results from the consumption of seafood contaminated with ciguatoxins (CTXs). This disease is highly prevalent in French Polynesia with several well-identified hotspots. Rapa Island, the southernmost inhabited island in the country, was reportedly free of CP until 2007. This study describes the integrated approach used to investigate the etiology of a fatal mass-poisoning outbreak that occurred in Rapa in 2009. Symptoms reported in patients were evocative of ciguatera. Several Gambierdiscus field samples collected from benthic assemblages tested positive by the receptor binding assay (RBA). Additionally, the toxicity screening of ≈250 fish by RBA indicated ≈78% of fish could contain CTXs. The presence of CTXs in fish was confirmed by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). The potential link between climate change and this range expansion of ciguatera to a subtropical locale of French Polynesia was also examined based on the analysis of temperature time-series data. Results are indicative of a global warming trend in Rapa area. A five-fold reduction in incidence rates was observed between 2009 and 2012, which was due in part to self-regulating behavior among individuals (avoidance of particular fish species and areas). Such observations underscore the prominent role played by community outreach in ciguatera risk management.