Three-dimensional finite element modeling (FEM) has been carried out using QForm software on the hot forging operation of the upper ball joint, involving the process of roughing and finishing. The material used is SNCM8 commercial alloy steel. This paper aims to optimize the initial billet size to achieve a final forged product without any defects. To accomplish this task, it was necessary to determine the initial optimum billet size by calculating the mass ratio. It is more practical to reduce the length of the initial billet and keep the diameter constant. The initial billet size was obtained by FE simulation by varying the five cases of mass ratio. The minimum dimension of the initial billet, which filled the die cavity without defects, was selected for the tryout experiments. The experimental results supported the FEM results and indicated that the optimum size was ∅48x152.88 mm, which may reduce material waste by 17.65%. Additionally, the forging load during the forging process was investigated. The actual forging load was slightly higher than the experimental one. The forging load showed a maximum error about 10.13%. Finite element simulation by QForm V10.1.6. software is recommended as an efficient tool for predicting the hot deformation behavior of the material during several stages of hot forging, which can save material costs and the cost of trials, leading to enhancements in the manufacturing process.