Recurrence Time Of Earthquakes Research Articles

Recurrence Times of Large Earthquakes: Assimilating the Effect of Seismic Coupling into a Renewal Model

ABSTRACT A renewal model for estimating recurrence times of large earthquakes is presented, which allows one to assimilate data from paleo, historic, and instrumental earthquake data as well as geodetic information in a simple and efficient way using three parameters: the Richter b-value, the mean recurrence time μT of paleo and historic earthquakes, and the seismic coupling coefficient χ. The core of the model is a state variable with linear drift in time reflecting Reid’s elastic rebound theory, decorated with random fluctuations modeling small and intermediate earthquakes. Furthermore, it is assumed that a fraction between 0% and 100% of the average seismic moment is released seismically, and the remaining part corresponds to aseismic processes such as creep. The model extends former renewal models of Matthews et al. (2002) and Zöller et al. (2008). Results for different regions indicate overall good performance and thus suggest that the model provides physically motivated constraints for recurrence time estimations in contrast to the standard fitting of a few data points to an assumed distribution.

Sedimentary Records in the Lesser Antilles Fore‐Arc Basins Provide Evidence of Large Late Quaternary Megathrust Earthquakes

AbstractThe seismic potential of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone is poorly known and highly debated. Only two damaging earthquakes have been reported in the historical period, in 1839 and 1843, but their sources and magnitude are still uncertain. Global Navigation Satellite Systems and coral data contradict each other, and no conclusion has been reached on the coupling ratio of the plate interface. Given the threat posed by the possible occurrence of a large megathrust earthquake, it is crucial to gain information on prehistorical events. We present the results of a submarine paleoseismological study that covers an exceptional ∼120 Kyr‐long period. We studied the sediments sampled in six up to 26 m‐long piston cores collected in deep fore‐arc basins located over the epicentral region of the 1843 earthquake. Using a multiproxy approach combining geophysical, geochemical, and sedimentological analysis, biostratigraphy and radiocarbon dating, we identified, characterized, and dated numerous event deposits that we then correlated with the sampled basins over an up to 160 km‐long area. We show that at least 33 earthquakes likely triggered these sediment remobilizations in the last 120 Kyr. Four of these events promoted exceptional deposits of turbidites + homogenites. From peak ground acceleration calculated for potential earthquakes occurring on various faults, and the absence of deposits linked to the historical earthquakes, we propose that the sources are likely megathrust earthquakes. Over the last 60 Kyr, we inferred at least three 15–25 Kyr‐long seismic cycles in which the recurrence times of earthquakes shortens from ∼5 to ∼2 Kyr.

Deciphering past earthquakes from the probabilistic modeling of paleoseismic records – the Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies code (PEACH, version 1)

Abstract. A key challenge in paleoseismology is constraining the timing and occurrence of past earthquakes to create an earthquake history along faults that can be used for testing or building fault-based seismic hazard assessments. We present a new methodological approach and accompanying code (Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies, PEACH) to meet this challenge. By using the integration of multi-site paleoseismic records through probabilistic modeling of the event times and an unconditioned correlation, PEACH improves the objectivity of constraining paleoearthquake chronologies along faults, including highly populated records and poorly dated events. Our approach reduces uncertainties in event times and allows increased resolution of the trench records. By extension, the approach can potentially reduce the uncertainties in the estimation of parameters for seismic hazard assessment such as earthquake recurrence times and coefficient of variation. We test and discuss this methodology in two well-studied cases: the Paganica Fault in Italy and the Wasatch Fault in the United States.

Recurrence time and size of Chilean earthquakes influenced by geological structure

Recurrence time and size of Chilean earthquakes influenced by geological structure

Assessment of the seismic hazard in North China by combining micro-seismicity records and geodetic observations

North China has suffered numerous devastating historical and recent earthquakes, causing huge loss of life and property. Therefore, it is vital to identify the regions with the greatest potential to generate large earthquakes in the future. Previous studies mainly evaluated the seismic hazard in North China using earthquake records or geodetic methods separately. Here, we evaluated the seismic records and geodetic observations in combination to comprehensively assess the earthquake potential. We first evaluated the earthquake catalog and determined that the completeness range of magnitude is 1.9 to 2.8 based on the b-values estimated by magnitude-frequency distribution using catalogs with different minimum-magnitude cutoffs. We then obtained the spatial distributions of three strain rate parameters, including the maximum shear, the principal, and second invariant of the strain rates, using interseismic Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations. The robustness of the strain rate model was validated by comparing previous studies. We then analyzed the seismic hazard in North China based on the strain rates and b-values and determined the regions with relatively high seismic hazard potentials. The results suggested that large strain rates are mainly concentrated on the western border of the Ordos Block and the Tangshan fault zone. Different strain rate parameters yielded similar spatial distributions of recurrence intervals with different magnitudes. We further revealed that the western border of the Ordos Block and Tangshan fault regions exhibit relatively short (∼7000–15,000 year) ML 7.5 earthquake recurrence times, compared with those of other regions in North China. Although the results obtained in this study were limited by the completeness of earthquake records, the spatial distribution of the GNSS observation, the assumption of elastic strain accumulation, and the complexity of the mechanisms of intraplate earthquakes, our findings will contribute to the assessment of seismic hazards in North China.

New paleoseismic events reveal decamillenial recurrence time for large earthquakes (M ≥ 7) along the Yuguang Graben Fault in North China

Paleoseismic studies are critical for the assessment and prediction of large earthquakes (M ≥ 7). These studies involve excavating and analyzing evidence from surface–rupturing earthquakes. However, they often face limitations in spatiotemporal resolution. The Yuguang Graben, located in the northern Shanxi Grabens of North China, contains an abundance of Quaternary loess that can be utilized for extending paleoseismic records. Fine-grained deposits of loess contrast sharply with gravel deposits of the colluvial wedge, making the wedge shape apparent. To enhance our understanding of earthquake behavior in the Yuguang Graben, we excavated a trench on terrace T2 of the Songzhikou segment of the Yuguang Graben Fault (YGF). We used LiDAR to obtain a high–resolution orthophoto of the trench wall. Through OSL dating of colluvial wedges and loess, we identified at least four large paleoseismic events with a magnitude of M ≥ 7 that occurred along the YGF. These events took place at >77.6 ± 5.1, 63.9 ± 5.1, 51.0 ± 4.3, and 37.3 ± 0.3 kyr, respectively. Combined with previous paleoseismic studies, we identified seven paleoseismic events since the late Pleistocene. These findings reveal that earthquakes occurring on YGF follow a quasiperiodic pattern with an average recurrence interval of about 12 ± 3 kyr. The elapsed time of the most recent earthquake near the recurrence interval suggests an increased risk of a large earthquake along the YGF. We also analyzed earthquake clusters generated by neighboring faults in the active northeastern boundary of the Ordos block. Our analysis indicated that fault interactions can affect the recurrence interval of earthquakes along single faults, while regional seismic activity tends to concentrate in time during a seismically active period. These observations underscore the importance of expanding paleoseismic records and exploring regional seismic hazards to gain a more comprehensive understanding of earthquakes.

Fast relocking and afterslip-seismicity evolution following the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake in Chile

Large subduction earthquakes induce complex postseismic deformation, primarily driven by afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation, in addition to interplate relocking processes. However, these signals are intricately intertwined, posing challenges in determining the timing and nature of relocking. Here, we use six years of continuous GNSS measurements (2015–2021) to study the spatiotemporal evolution of afterslip, seismicity and locking after the 2015 Illapel earthquake (M_w 8.3). Afterslip is inverted from postseismic displacements corrected for nonlinear viscoelastic relaxation modeled using a power-law rheology, and the distribution of locking is obtained from the linear trend of GNSS stations. Our results show that afterslip is mainly concentrated in two zones surrounding the region of largest coseismic slip. The accumulated afterslip (corresponding to M_w 7.8) exceeds 1.5 m, with aftershocks mainly occurring at the boundaries of the afterslip patches. Our results reveal that the region experiencing the largest coseismic slip undergoes rapid relocking, exhibiting the behavior of a persistent velocity weakening asperity, with no observed aftershocks or afterslip within this region during the observed period. The rapid relocking of this asperity may explain the almost regular recurrence time of earthquakes in this region, as similar events occurred in 1880 and 1943.

Paleoseismic evidence of five magnitude 7 earthquakes on the Norcia fault system in the past 8,000 years (Central Italy)

Many large-magnitude faults (6.5≤ Mw ≤7.2) of the Italian Apennines are characterized by multi-century return times, so historical sources may have missed their last earthquake or other predecessors. Hence, even in Italy, where seismic catalogs are among the most comprehensive and time-extensive worldwide, there is a need for complementary studies that might fill the lack of historical information and enhance the knowledge concerning the recurrence times of destructive earthquakes. As paleoseismology is the discipline that can do this, in this study, we present results collected in five new trenches opened along the 33-km-long Norcia fault system (central Apennines) where, in addition to the historically known 1703 earthquake (Mw 6.9), we uncovered indications of four Holocene predecessor, with a recurrence time of 1,825 ± 420 years. Considering also the paleoseismic results already published on the nearby Mt Vettore fault system (2016 earthquake of Mw 6.6), we guess that now the seismic hazard of this region could be assessed more robustly.

Islands of chaos in a sea of periodic earthquakes

Long paleoseismic records on mature faults suggest potentially chaotic recurrence patterns with cycles of strain accumulation and release that challenge simple slip- or time-predictable recurrence models. In apparent contradiction, the relatively small variability of earthquake recurrence times on these faults is often characterized as quasi-periodic, implying much regularity in the underlying mechanics. To reconcile these observations, we simulate one of the longest paleoearthquake records – the 24-event record from the Hokuri Creek site on the Alpine fault in New Zealand – using a physical model of rate- and state-dependent friction. In a parameter space formed by three non-dimensional parameters, a sea of parameters produces periodic earthquake recurrence behavior. Only a few models are characterized by fundamentally aperiodic recurrence patterns, in parametric islands of chaos. Complex models that produce partial and full ruptures of the Alpine fault can explain the earthquake recurrence behavior of the Alpine fault, reproducing up to 11 consecutive events of the Hokuri Creek paleoseismic record within uncertainties. The breakdown of the slip- and time-predictable recurrence patterns occurs for faults that are much longer than the characteristic nucleation size. The quasi-periodicity of seismic cycles is compatible with the nonlinear and potentially chaotic underlying mechanical system, posing an inherent challenge to long-term earthquake prediction.

Statistical analogies between earthquakes, micro-quakes in metals and avalanches in the 1D Burridge-Knopoff model

Universalities and intriguing analogies in the statistics of avalanches are revealed for three physical systems defined on largely different length and energy scales. Earthquakes induced by tectonic scale dynamics, micro-scale level quakes observed from slipping crystallographic planes in metals and a one-dimensional, room-scale spring-block type Burridge-Knopoff model is studied from similar statistical viewpoints. The validity of the Gutenberg-Richter law for the probability density of the energies dissipated in the avalanches is proven for all three systems. By analysing data for three different seismic zones and performing acoustic detection for different Zn samples under deformation, universality for the involved scaling exponent is revealed. With proper parameter choices the 1D Burridge-Knopoff model is able to reproduce the same scaling law. The recurrence times of earthquakes and micro-quakes with magnitudes above a given threshold present again similar distributions and striking quantitative similarities. However, the 1D Burridge-Knopoff model cannot account for the correlations observed in such statistics.

ANALYSIS OF COULOMB STRESS TRANSFER AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD IN THE ÇALDIRAN FAULT ZONE AND ITS ADJACENT REGION

Çaldıran fault zone (CFZ) are significant seismically active zone that generated many destructive earthquakes. In this fault system, the last of these major earthquakes occurred on 1976 (Ms = 7.3). Therefore, based on the seismotectonic b-value, earthquake probability, recurrence times and Coulomb stress changes, we investigate the future earthquake potential and positive/negative stress changes in this fault zone. The events with a magnitude greater than 3.6 are used to investigate stress transfer direction regarding the seismotectonic parameters. The results indicate that the regions having smaller b-values are obtained along with the SE of CFZ, whilst higher b-values are calculated around the east of Lake Van. On the other hand, the northeast of CFZ represents current stress accumulation. Similarly, the Coulomb stress variations of 1976 earthquake show that stress accumulated at different depths in the northwest of this fault system. In addition, considering the long-term slip rates and horizontal offset in previous studies, the recurrence time of earthquakes has approximately 302 years for a magnitude greater than 6.0. Finally, these comprehensive analyses explain the implications of seismic hazard evaluation and forecasting of possible next earthquake occurrences in this region.

Long silence on the East Anatolian Fault Zone (Southern Turkey) ends with devastating double earthquakes (6 February 2023) over a seismic gap: implications for the seismic potential in the Eastern Mediterranean region

On 6 February 2023, an earthquake with magnitude M w c . 7.0 on the Narlı Fault, a fault sub-parallel to the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), initiated a chain of large earthquakes on the EAFZ. The earthquakes occurred in a seismic gap with low geodetic strain rates and low background seismicity, where deformation is distributed across a wide fault zone and a long recurrence time of historical earthquakes. The c. 50 km long rupture of the Narlı Fault towards Pazarcık led to an M w 7.8 left-lateral strike-slip earthquake breaking a c. 300 km section of the c. 600 km long EAFZ bilaterally with a total duration of more than 80 s. Toward the SW, the rupture propagated on the c. 100 km long Amanos segment with a peak surface offset of 5 m, before diminishing toward the Hatay graben. In the NE direction, the rupture reached a peak surface offset of 7 m before sharply declining at the termination of the 2020 M w 6.8 Sivrice earthquake rupture. A second large earthquake with M w 7.6 occurred 9 h later on the Çardak Fault, located at the western margin of (and sub-parallel to) the EAFZ and breaking the surface with almost 9 m of left-lateral slip (average of c. 4 m). Following these large earthquakes, the increase in the regional stress led to a rapid seismic activation in a broad region from central to eastern Anatolia, loading the faults at various scales and increasing seismic hazard. Two weeks after the initiation of the seismic crisis, a third earthquake with M w 6.4 occurred at the southern boundary of the Hatay graben, near the southwestern termination of the Amanos rupture. The earthquakes caused significant loss of human life, devastating 12 cities. We evaluate the observations prior to the ruptures, and present preliminary seismological results with surface displacements from sub-pixel correlation of optical satellite images and the stress perturbations computed on the nearby faults based on preliminary slip models. The re-evaluation of the seismic potential in light of the recent and historical earthquakes provides some new insight on seismic hazard assessment. The recent series of events on the EAFZ is an important reminder that large faults can generate very large earthquakes on multiple segments. The seismic potential of large earthquakes on these fault zones can be estimated only by considering multiple seismic cycles and moment deficits from very large earthquakes. Supplementary material : Supplementary figures and tables are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.6567094

Large earthquakes along slow converging plate margins: Calabrian Arc paleoseismicity based on the submarine turbidite record

The Calabrian Arc subduction-rollback system hosts seismogenic faults capable of generating earthquakes exceeding magnitude 7. Since earthquakes are the result of long-term geodynamic processes, documenting seismic activity during a sufficiently long time interval is of fundamental importance for hazard scenarios. Instrumental and historical data provide critical information on seismogenesis, but they cover time periods shorter than the recurrence times of large earthquakes, especially in areas with low deformation rates such as Calabria. If onshore paleoseismological studies are fundamental to compile earthquake catalogs, they are sometime affected by the relatively poor continuity of sedimentation in the subaerial environment.In this study we applied the paleoseismological approach to the submarine environment to reconstruct the record of high-energy sedimentary events triggered by seismic activity. We analyzed three gravity cores collected in disconnected sedimentary basins to reconstruct resedimentation processes during the Holocene, integrating inland information for a better assessment of tectonic activity and seismogenesis. Multiproxy analyses of the sedimentary record constrained by radiometric dating allowed reconstructing event stratigraphy and linking resedimented deposits to specific earthquakes.Onshore and offshore data allow to identify large-magnitude earthquakes in the central Calabrian Arc subduction system during the Holocene, with inferred epicenters located either along normal faults onshore and/or related to the slab dynamics. The turbidite record reveals 20 major events during the last 10 ka, with sources including crustal faults in Calabria (i.e. Lakes, Rossano and Cittanova faults). Analyses of sediment samples and high-resolution seismic reflection images allowed identification of different types of resedimented deposits during the last 30–50 ka. The basin-wide occurrence of three megaturbidites/homogenites suggests they are related to megatsunamis sourced by far field earthquakes along the Hellenic Arc. Megaturbidites with a more limited spatial extent are interpreted as subduction-type events in the Calabrian Arc, while thinner seismo-turbidites record the activity of crustal structures including faults onshore. Results suggest a recurrence time of 2–3 ka for major Calabrian Arc events that needs to be considered for a reliable hazard assessment in the Mediterranean region.

Influence of Fluids on Earthquakes Based on Numerical Modeling

AbstractThe strength and sliding behavior of faults in the crust is largely controlled by friction and effective stress, which is itself modulated by fluid pressure. Most earthquake models assume a fixed pore fluid pressure despite widespread evidence that is varies strongly in time due to changes in permeability. Here we explore how dynamic changes in pore pressure influence the properties of earthquakes in the upper crust. To study this problem we develop a two dimensional model that incorporates slow tectonic loading and fluid pressure generation during the interseismic period with frictional sliding on a thrust fault whose permeability evolves with slip. We find that the presence of relatively modest fluid overpressures tends to reduce coseismic slip, stress drop, maximum sliding velocity, rupture velocity and the earthquake recurrence time compared to models without fluids. Our model produces a wide range of sliding velocities from rapid to slow earthquakes, which occur due to the presence of high pore pressures prior to rupture. The models also show evidence for aftershocks that are driven by fluid transfer along the fault plane after the mainshock. Overall, this study shows that fluids can exert an important influence on earthquakes in the crust, which is mostly due to modulation of the effective stress and variations in permeability, and to a lesser extent to poro‐elastic coupling.

The Luangwa Rift Active Fault Database and fault reactivation along the southwestern branch of the East African Rift

Abstract. Seismic hazard assessment in slow straining regions is challenging because earthquake catalogues only record events from approximately the last 100 years, whereas earthquake recurrence times on individual faults can exceed 1000 years. Systematic mapping of active faults allows fault sources to be used within probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, which overcomes the problems of short-term earthquake records. We use Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data to analyse surface deformation in the Luangwa Rift in Zambia and develop the Luangwa Rift Active Fault Database (LRAFD). The LRAFD is an open-source geospatial database containing active fault traces and their attributes and is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6513691. We identified 18 faults that display evidence for Quaternary activity, and empirical relationships suggest that these faults could cause earthquakes up to Mw 8.1, which would exceed the magnitude of historically recorded events in southern Africa. On the four most prominent faults, the median height of Quaternary fault scarps varies between 12.9 ± 0.4 and 19.2 ± 0.9 m, which suggests they were formed by multiple earthquakes. Deformation is focused on the edges of the Luangwa Rift: the most prominent Quaternary fault scarps occur along the 207 km long Chipola and 142 km long Molaza faults, which are the rift border faults and the longest faults in the region. We associate the scarp on the Molaza Fault with possible surface ruptures from two 20th century earthquakes. Thus, the LRAFD reveals new insights into active faulting in southern Africa and presents a framework for evaluating future seismic hazard.

Late Quaternary Slip Rates for the Hyde and Dunstan Faults, Southern New Zealand: Implications for Strain Migration in a Slowly Deforming Continental Plate Margin

AbstractReverse faulting in Otago, southern New Zealand, accommodates distributed tectonic convergence on the eastern side of the Australian‐Pacific plate boundary. Paleoearthquake records from some of the faults in the region show highly variable earthquake recurrence times, with long periods of quiescence separated by periods of earthquake activity. Here we develop a longer‐term context for these records, using cosmogenic radionuclide dating of faulted alluvial fan surfaces to characterize the late Quaternary slip rates on two significant faults within the system, the Hyde and Dunstan faults. We determine an average slip rate of 0.24 mm/yr (0.19–0.29 mm/yr at 95% confidence) for the Hyde Fault since about 115 ka, and an average slip rate of 0.16 mm/yr (0.12–0.21 mm/yr) for the Dunstan Fault since about 320 ka. Both faults show increases in slip rate of a factor of three to five times the average long‐term rate over timescales of 10 kyr. Increases in slip rate are out of phase on the two faults, supporting a hypothesis that strain is shared within the fault system over timescales on the order of 10 kyr. Over longer timescales, on the order of 100 kyr, slip rates can be well‐approximated by a linear fit, providing an upper limit on the variability of fault slip rates with time.

Estimation of B-Value Variation as Earthquake Precursor in Java Region with Maximum Likelihood Method

Java Island is one of the areas with a population density of 1,171 people/km2, which is relatively high compared to other regions in Indonesia. The tectonic setting of the Java region is affected by the interaction of tectonic plate subduction between the Indo-Australian Plate and the Eurasian Plate which moves at the rate of 67 mm/year. In addition, the presence of several active faults on Java Island also contributes to the tectonic setting. The implication of this setting is a relatively high level of potential earthquake events and some of them are destructive earthquakes. The estimation of b-value variations by using Gutenberg-Richter Equation plays an important role in estimating the occurrence of earthquakes. The aims of this study are to determine the role of spatial and temporal variations of b-value as earthquake precursors on Java Island. In this research, earthquakes analysis was carried out in the form of spatial and temporal variations of b-value from earthquake catalog data in 1900-2016 for the Java Island region. Based on the estimation of earthquake recurrence time for magnitude 6.5, 7, and 7.5, and also the analysis of spatial variation of b-value shows the areas with the potential for significant earthquakes in the west and eastern part of Java region. In addition, our result also obtains the existence of a seismic gap zone in the southern part of Central Java.

Review and Update on Some Connections between a Spring-Block SOC Model and Actual Seismicity in the Case of Subduction Zones.

The self-organized critical (SOC) spring-block models are accessible and powerful computational tools for the study of seismic subduction. This work aims to highlight some important findings through an integrative approach of several actual seismic properties, reproduced by using the Olami, Feder, and Christensen (OFC) SOC model and some variations of it. A few interesting updates are also included. These results encompass some properties of the power laws present in the model, such as the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law, the correlation between the parameters a and b of the linear frequency-magnitude relationship, the stepped plots for cumulative seismicity, and the distribution of the recurrence times of large earthquakes. The spring-block model has been related to other relevant properties of seismic phenomena, such as the fractal distribution of fault sizes, and can be combined with the work of Aki, who established an interesting relationship between the fractal dimension and the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship. Also included is the work incorporating the idea of asperities, which allowed us to incorporate several inhomogeneous models in the spring-block automaton. Finally, the incorporation of a Ruff-Kanamori-type diagram for synthetic seismicity, which is in reasonable accordance with the original Ruff and Kanamori diagram for real seismicity, is discussed.

A Continuous 13.3-Ka Paleoseismic Record Constrains Major Earthquake Recurrence in the Longmen Shan Collision Zone

Thrust collision zones with low slip rates along the plate boundary are significant areas of stress accumulation and prone to develop more destructive earthquakes with longer recurrence intervals. Such regions are often classified as low seismic risk if they lack continuous records of large earthquakes, such as the eastern Tibetan Plateau before the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Here, we provide a continuous seismic record in the Longmen Shan thrust fault zone spanning 13,000 years based on detailed investigation of the soft-sediment deformation structures and seismites in the Lixian lacustrine sequence. The recurrence time of large earthquakes (M ≥ 8.1) is 1,200 years, which is significantly shorter than the previous estimate of 2,000–6,000 years. The Maoxian-Wenchuan fault is the main fault that triggered the deformation in the Lixian lacustrine sediments. In addition, earthquake recurrence in the warm period is more frequent than that in the cold period, which should arouse our attention for the seismic study of tectonically active regions.

High resolution morphometric analysis of the Cordone del Vettore normal fault scarp (2016 central Italy seismic sequence): Insights into age, earthquake recurrence and throw rates

We investigated the late Quaternary throw distribution of the main normal fault that ruptured during the Mw 6.5 2016 earthquake in central Italy by means of a high-resolution structure-from-motion (SfM)-derived Digital Surface Model (DSM). We focused on a key area along the Cordone del Vettore fault (CDV), which is part of the Vettore-Bove fault system (VBFS). The CDV displays a prominent compound post-glacial scarp that allowed the reconstruction of the along-strike cumulative throw distribution. We propose a geometric approach to calculate the CDV fault throw distribution from the reconstruction of a displaced glaciation-related erosional surface, used as a geomorphic marker, and a series of closely spaced cross profiles. The proposed calculation accounts for both the slip vector direction and the degraded scarp top, including field data on fault dip angles. Following this approach, we recognized two scarps with a minimum average fault throw of ~21 m and ~35 m for this section of the investigated fault strand.The correlation with the possible post-LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) deglaciation phases of the erosional surface suggests a minimum scarp age of 25–27 ka cal BP. Such an age provides a reasonable CDV fault throw rate of ~0.8 mm/a, comparable with known long-term throw rates of the VBFS and active Apennines normal faults. By comparing the reconstructed long-term Cordone del Vettore throw distribution with the 2016 coseismic one, ~24 2016-like surface faulting events are required to generate the main cumulative scarp, under the assumption of constant slip per event. This, along with the age of the scarp, yields an average earthquake recurrence time interval of ~1100 a. These results suggest the presence of multiple regional markers that correlates with different LGM (if not pre-LGM) major glacial phases, whose erosional processes allow the preservation of pre-existing bedrock fault scarp remnants.