Recurrence Interval Of Large Earthquakes Research Articles

Probability and recurrence interval of large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6) in the Himalayan seismicity zone

The Himalayan Mountains are one of the world’s most seismically active regions. Due to the active seismic status of the Himalayan belt and ongoing development activities in the region, it is important to keep the seismic hazard estimates updated by incorporating historical and new data. This study uses the Gutenberg-Richter relations for four seismogenic source zones (SSZ) to estimate the probability of earthquakes of a specified magnitude in a given time interval. We used exponential, Weibull, Rayleigh, and log-normal statistical models to assess the probability of earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6). The probable recurrence time of the large earthquake (Mw ≥ 6) can be estimated by maximizing the conditional probability estimates. This recurrence interval is calculated after the elapsed time since the most recent large earthquake in the region. We also apply an autoregressive (AR) forecasting technique to predict earthquake recurrence intervals. The results indicate that the approximate recurrence interval of the large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6) may be 22.052 ± 5.65 years within the seismicity zones, as per our statistical estimates based on limited and available datasets. The results of this study may be useful for the agencies involved in assessing seismic hazards and developing mitigation and preparedness strategies in the region.

Holocene Activity of the Wudaoliang–Changshagongma Fault of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

The Wudaoliang–Changshagongma fault is one of the NW-trending faults located within the southern Bayan Har Block of the Tibetan Plateau in China. In this paper, we used high-resolution imagery and digital elevation model data to study the geomorphological and geological characteristics of the fault. Furthermore, the result also determined the fault trace and estimated the average horizontal slip rate of the fault since the late Quaternary to have been 2.6 ± 0.6 mm/a. This slip rate is approximately equivalent to that of the Awancang, Madoi–Garde, and Dari faults, which are also located within the block. Furthermore, the slip rates of these faults obtained by remote sensing and geological methods are consistent with GPS observations. It indicates that tectonic deformation within the block is continuous and diffuse. Using trenching study results and sedimentary radiocarbon dating, we identified four paleoearthquake events that occurred at 42,378–32,975, 33,935–20,663, 5052–4862, and after 673–628 cal BP, respectively. The recurrence intervals of large earthquakes on the faults within the block are much longer than those of the boundary faults, and the slip rates are also smaller, indicating that faults within the block play a regulatory role in the tectonic deformation of the Bayan Har Block.

Physics-based earthquake simulations of the Anninghe-Zemuhe-Daliangshan-Xiaojiang fault system in Southwestern China

Seismic hazard evaluation is important for urban construction and earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation. However, because of the long recurrence intervals of large earthquakes (hundreds to thousands of years), seismic hazard assessment based on relatively short-term (tens of years) observational seismic catalogs is difficult. Synthetic seismic catalogs provide a useful way to assess long-term seismic hazards. Based on the Coulomb failure criterion, we apply a quasi-static physics-based earthquake simulator (Virtual Quake) in a tectonically complicated region with several major strike-slip faults, namely, the Anninghe, Zemuhe, Daliangshan and Xiaojiang (AZDX) faults, in southwestern China. The slip rates of these major faults are constrained by GPS data, and friction is constrained by laboratory experiments. Considering the stress interactions among the fault system, a synthetic catalog over 20,000 years is simulated. The simulated catalog shows consistency with the observed seismicity in the spatial distribution of large earthquakes, b value and mean seismic rate. Based on the synthetic catalog, the mean recurrence intervals and probabilities of the recurrence interval for strong earthquakes (M ≥ 7) in each fault section are presented in detail. Moreover, qualitative analysis of seismic hazards is conducted for the AZDX fault region. Our results provide a helpful index to evaluate seismic hazards in such a complicated region. Plain language summaryEvaluating seismic hazards is important for building codes, risk prevention and mitigation. Because large earthquakes are rare, modern observed earthquake catalogs are too short to evaluate seismic hazards precisely. Thus, numerical simulations are used to obtain synthetic earthquake catalogs for seismic hazard evaluation. Here, we present a physics-based model of stress accumulation, transfer and release, and simulate an earthquake sequence in the Anninghe-Zemuhe-Daliangshan-Xiaojiang fault system, southwestern China. Thus, we obtain a synthetic catalog over 20,000 years. By comparing the spatial distributions of large earthquakes, b values, and mean seismic rates of the synthetic catalog and observed catalog, we find that the synthetic catalog is consistent with the observed catalog. Based on the synthetic seismic catalog, we summarize the mean strong seismic recurrence interval and the probability of the recurrence interval for each fault section. Qualitative analysis of seismic hazards is conducted for the AZDX fault region. Our results can help to evaluate long-term seismic hazards in a multiple-fault system.

High-resolution calibration of seismically-induced lacustrine deposits with historical earthquake data in the Eastern Alps (Carinthia, Austria)

Lake sediments are increasingly used to reconstruct recurrence intervals of large earthquakes - a prerequisite for the establishment of accurate seismic hazard models - because they can record strong seismic shaking as mass-transport deposits (MTDs), turbidites or sediment deformations and often reach back several thousands of years. To derive quantitative information on paleo-earthquake size, the sedimentary imprints need to be thoroughly calibrated with independent information on seismic shaking strength. A few calibration studies proposed scaling relationships between the shaking strength of historical earthquakes and the type and size of lacustrine sedimentary imprints. Due to incomprehensive lacustrine mapping or an insufficient record of documented earthquakes, however, rigorous testing of these scaling relationships is lacking. Here, we study the sedimentary infill of the past ∼800 years in Wörthersee and Millstättersee, two large lakes in the Eastern Alps (Carinthia, Austria). These lakes have experienced five well-documented historical earthquakes with local seismic intensities ranging from V – IX (EMS-98 scale). We trace the sedimentary signatures (MTDs and turbidites) of these earthquakes based on a vast dataset of multibeam bathymetry, reflection seismic profiles and numerous precisely dated sediment cores. Seismic intensities as low as V½ are recorded as turbidites originating from deltaic slopes, while hemipelagic slopes can fail from intensities of VI onwards. In Wörthersee, earthquake-recording thresholds are highly dependent on the specific core locations due to local variations in slope characteristics (composition, length, and gradient) and transport distance to the core site. This highlights the potential for establishing multi-threshold paleoseismic records based on multiple coring sites in a single basin. In both lakes, exponential size-scaling relationships are inferred between seismic intensity and i) number or volume of mass-transport deposits and ii) the cumulative thickness of turbidites. Moreover, the relative turbidite presence increases linearly with seismic intensity, confirming the results from a previous study in Chilean lakes. Application of the obtained size-scaling relationships on the first major earthquake documented for Austria (1201 CE) suggests a magnitude of ∼6.4 and an epicentre close to Millstätter See. This demonstrates that lake paleoseismology is a powerful tool to obtain quantitative information on the seismic intensity distribution of paleo-earthquakes.

Co-Seismic Surface Rupture and Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes along Damaoyaba-Litang Segment of the Litang Fault on the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau in China

Co-Seismic Surface Rupture and Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes along Damaoyaba-Litang Segment of the Litang Fault on the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau in China

Identification of the Seismogenic Fault of the 1654 M 8.0 Tianshui Earthquake, Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract The 1654 M 8.0 Tianshui earthquake occurred in the triangle area bounded by the West Qinling fault (WQLF) and Lixian–Luojiabao fault (LLF) in the northeastern Tibetan plateau. Previous studies reported that the LLF is the source for this earthquake based on the historical records and the Holocene fault activities. However, topographic analyses, outcrop observations, trench excavations associated with the WQLF, together with the radiocarbon dating results reveal that (1) the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake (E1) occurred in the past 470 yr, which can only correspond to the 1654 Tianshui earthquake if the historic earthquakes record is complete. This result means that the seismogenic fault, which is responsible for the 1654 Tianshui earthquake is the WQLF, rather than the LLF as previously reported; (2) the penultimate morphogenic earthquake (E2) took place in the period of 2693–760 yr Cal B.P.; (3) the third recent large earthquake (E3) occurred in the period of 10,229–6032 yr Cal B.P. with a higher probability in this range of 9005–8596 yr Cal B.P.; and (4) in consideration of the double time span of event E3 when compared with event E2 and E1, there is a possibility that another morphogenic earthquake took place in the period of 8596–6032 yr Cal B.P., and then the fourth surface-rupturing event (E4) occurred in the period of 9005–8596 yr Cal B.P. Therefore, at least three or four Holocene slipping events have occurred upon the WQLF in the past ∼9000 yr, suggesting an average recurrence interval of large earthquakes of 2250–3000 yr. The new evidence associated with the source of the 1654 M 8.0 Tianshui earthquake and the recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the WQLF will throw light on the reassessment of seismic potential in this area.

A Historical Earthquake-Induced Landslide Damming Event at the Qiaojia Reach of the Jinsha River, SE Tibetan Plateau: Implication for the Seismic Hazard of the Xiaojiang Fault

In bedrock mountainous areas where active faults and deep river valleys interact, earthquake-induced landslides can be used to explore local seismic hazards. The intersection of the highly active Xiaojiang Fault and the Jinsha River and its main tributaries in southwest China is a site of abundant earthquake-induced landslides. We found some boulders inappropriately scattered on the east bank of the Qiaojia reach of the Jinsha River, where the Qiaojia Segment of the Xiaojiang Fault passes through. We investigated the lithology and topography nearby and confirmed its source area, as well as the existence of a landslide damming event in the field. A high-resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM) generated from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) images was used to analyze its characteristics and calculate its parameters. Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and 14C dating methods on the related dammed lake sand shows the age of the landslide, which is not later than 878 AD. The characteristics of large size with limited depositional extent, spatial relevance between the landslide and Xiaojiang Fault, and temporal-coincidence of the landslide with 624 AD earthquake support the seismic origin of this landslide. Moreover, the 624 AD earthquake was reanalyzed for its magnitude and macro-epicenter based on the coseismic displacement of the Heishui River floodplain. It was calculated to be Mw7.7 or Ms7.9 and relocated to the Qiaojia area. No M ≥ 7 earthquakes have occurred on the Qiaojia Segment for nearly 1,400 years since 624 AD. The elapsed time is close to the average recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the Qiaojia Segment. Therefore, the seismic hazard of the Qiaojia area should be considered in the future.

Late quaternary slip rate of the east segment of the Yushu fault in the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau

The Yushu fault is a mainly left-lateral strike slip fault with some normal component within the Ganzi-Yushu fault system in central-eastern Tibetan Plateau. In 2010, the catastrophic Yushu Ms 7.1 earthquake occurred along this fault, causing approximately 3000 casualties and widespread damages; however, the late Quaternary slip rate of this fault was not tightly constrained due to poor research. Based on the interpretation of satellite images, field measurement of the offset of terrace risers, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon (14C) dating of terrace ages, the late Quaternary slip rate of the east segment of the Yushu fault is estimated to be 6.8–8.2 mm/yr. In consideration of the partitioning effect of the Batang fault south of Yushu, the late Quaternary slip rate of the entire Yushu segment is approximately 9–12 mm/yr. Given the characteristic offset of about 6–8 m, the recurrence interval of large earthquakes along the Yushu fault is estimated to be approximately 750–1150 yr. This research provides basic parameters for the long-term seismic hazards assessment of the Yushu area and implies the limited southeastward extrusion rate (~10 mm/yr) of Qiangtang block relative to the Bayan Har block.

Impulsive Source of the 2017 MW=7.3 Ezgeleh, Iran, Earthquake.

On 12 November 2017, a M W=7.3 earthquake struck near the Iranian town of Ezgeleh, at the Iran‐Iraq border. This event was located within the Zagros fold and thrust belt which delimits the continental collision between the Arabian and Eurasian Plates. Despite a high seismic risk, the seismogenic behavior of the complex network of active faults is not well documented in this area due to the long recurrence interval of large earthquakes. In this study, we jointly invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar and near‐field strong motions to infer a kinematic slip model of the rupture. The incorporation of these near‐field observations enables a fine resolution of the kinematic rupture process. It reveals an impulsive seismic source with a strong southward rupture directivity, consistent with significant damage south of the epicenter. We also show that the slip direction does not match plate convergence, implying that some of the accumulated strain must be partitioned onto other faults.

Evidence of long recurrence times and low slip rate along the 1668 Tancheng earthquake fault

Fault slip rates and recurrence intervals of large earthquakes for active faults are important parameters for better understanding active faults and assessing their seismic hazard. The Tanlu fault, located in the densely populated and economically developed area of eastern China is thought to be the source of the M 7 Anqiu earthquake in 70 BC, and M 8½ Tancheng earthquake in 1668. Understanding the recurrence interval of paleoearthquakes and fault slip rates for the Tancheng earthquake fault is critical for assessing the potential for seismic risk and assessment for the Tanlu fault. However, the only published study used several trenches and a single trench does not completely record the sequence of paleoearthquake events, leaving a large uncertainty of seismic hazard. GPS observations in North China show that there is no significant velocity gradient across the Tanlu fault, yet the long-term slip rate of the Tancheng segment of the fault is estimated to be significantly higher, up to 2 mm/a. Therefore, it is critical to conduct further research on the paleoearthquake history and slip rates of this fault segment to reconcile these contrasting results. In this study, we utilize aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite imagery, combined with field investigations of a surface rupture formed by the 1668 earthquake. The earthquake rupture is ~80 m long and ~2.5 m high, located in the Huaqiao village of northeastern Tancheng County. A gully across the rupture reveals a right lateral dislocation of approximately 36 m. We excavated two trenches on both sides of the rupture. Trench 1 reveals a positive flower structure and is consistent with a right lateral strike-slip fault with a thrust component consistent with the modern regional stress field. Trench 2 reveals a colluvial wedge formed by the latest paleoearthquake with a fine-grained deposit overlapping the colluvial wedge. The latest paleoearthquake should occur prior to deposition of the fine-grained deposit. AMS-14C radiocarbon dating was used to determine the age of the event and is approximately 12.8 +4.0/−3.7 ka, indicating a recurrence interval of large earthquakes greater than 10 ka, consistent with the results from other segments of the Tanlu fault. Combined with an average slip of ~9 m for the 1668 Tancheng earthquake, the dextral slip rate along the Tancheng earthquake fault since the end of the late Pleistocene is estimated to be 0.7 mm/a, consistent with low interseismic strain accumulation based on geodetic observations across the North China region.

Late quaternary slip behavior of the Yushu fault and the 2010 Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake, eastern Tibetan Plateau

The 2010 Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake generated a 30-km-long surface rupture along the Gyêgu segment of the Yushu fault within the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Comparison of the surface slip distribution from this earthquake with the cumulative slips provides a basis to examine repeated activity through several earthquake cycles along the Yushu fault. To better understand the seismic behavior of the Yushu fault, we conducted geomorphological and geological investigations on the 2010 slip and cumulative offsets along the fault at several typical sites. Field observation and satellite image interpretation shows that the coseismic surface ruptures typical of the 2010 Yushu earthquake are discontinuous and usually do not show distinct slip at places where the accumulated displacements are large. Measurements made both in the field and on the satellite images show that the surface slip of the 2010 event was comparatively small and contributed little to cumulative displacement of the fault. Repeated offsets of 6–8 m characterize slip associated with events prior to 2010 along the Yushu fault, whereas the 2010 earthquake produced offsets only on the order of 1 m. In addition, surface ruptures from the magnitude 7.1 event involved the failure of less than half of the Gyêgu fault segment and did not terminate at major geometrical and geological breaks in the fault zone. Geomorphic evidence implies that the fundamental behavior of the Gyêgu fault segment is typically expressed as full-length rupture activity. Thus, data from this study suggests that the characteristic slip along the Yushu fault is 6–8 m, the Ms 7.1 earthquake was not likely a characteristic event along the Yushu fault and the 2010-type events may make some contribution to the low slip rate and long recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the Yushu fault.

Late Holocene slip rate and average recurrence interval of great earthquakes on the Shangzhi segment of the Yilan‐Yitong Fault Zone, northeastern China: Constraints from paleo‐earthquakes and historical written records

AbstractThe Yilan‐Yitong Fault Zone (YYFZ) is considered to be the key branch of the Tancheng‐Lujiang Fault Zone (TLFZ) in northeastern China. Although the Mesozoic and early Cenozoic deformation of the YYFZ has been studied intensively over the past century, few estimates of slip rate and recurrence interval of large earthquakes in the late Quaternary, which are the two most important parameters for understanding the potential seismic hazard of this crucial structure, were obtained. Based on integrated interpretations of high resolution satellite images and detailed geologic and geomorphic mapping, linear landforms were identified, including fault scarps and troughs, along the Shangzhi segment of the YYFZ, which exceeds 25 km in length. Synthesized results of trench excavations and differential GPS measurements of terrace surfaces indicate that two events (E1, E2) occurred along the Shangzhi segment during the late Holocene, which resulted in 3.2 ±0.1 m of total vertical co‐seismic displacement with clear features of thrust motion. 14C dating of samples suggests that event E1 occurred between 440 ±30 years BP and 180 ±30 years BP and that event E2 occurred between 4 090 ±30 years BP and 3 880 ±30 years BP, which indicates that the minimum vertical slip rate of the Shangzhi segment of the YYFZ has been approximately 0.8 ±0.03 mm/year during the late Holocene. Constraints from paleo events and the slip rate suggest that the average recurrence interval of major earthquakes on the YYFZ is 3 800 ±200 years. Historical documents in Korea show that event E1 possibly corresponds to the earthquake that occurred in AD 1810 (the Qing Dynasty in Chinese history) in the Ningguta area, which had surface‐wave magnitude (Ms) of 6.8–7.5. Studies of kinematics show that the right‐lateral strike‐slip with a reverse component has been dominant along the YYFZ during the late Holocene.

Late Quaternary paleoseismicity and seismic potential of the Yilan-Yitong Fault Zone in NE China

The Yilan-Yitong Fault Zone (YYFZ), which is composed of two nearly parallel branches with a spacing of 5–30 km and a length of ∼1100 km, is considered to be the key branch of the Tancheng-Lujiang Fault Zone (TLFZ) in NE China. It was traditionally believed that the YYFZ experienced weak activity or was inactive during the Late Quaternary, without the capability to generate strong earthquakes (M ≥ 7), based on the absence of typical outcrops and large historical or instrumental earthquakes (M > 6). However, our paleoseismic study shows that the YYFZ is the primary seismotectonic structure (M ≥ 7) that poses significant earthquake threats to NE China. The synthesis of data collected from geologic investigations, geomorphic mapping, trench logging and the dating of samples indicates that the YYFZ is an active structure that has undergone segmented strong tectonic deformation since the Late Quaternary with a characteristic assemblage of landforms, including linear scarps and troughs, offset or deflected streams, linear sag ponds, small horsts and grabens. The latest ruptures of the YYFZ migrated from previous boundary faults into the basin interior, forming a left-stepping en echelon pattern in plain view, and the kinematics of these events in the Late Quaternary were dominated by reverse dextral slipping. Multi-segment cluster faulting might have occurred during three cluster periods, i.e., ∼34750–35812 a BP, ∼21700–22640 a BP, and ∼4000 a BP-present, which implies that the recurrence interval of large earthquakes along the YYFZ may be as long as tens of thousands of years.

Silica precipitation potentially controls earthquake recurrence in seismogenic zones

Silica precipitation is assumed to play a significant role in post-earthquake recovery of the mechanical and hydrological properties of seismogenic zones. However, the relationship between the widespread quartz veins around seismogenic zones and earthquake recurrence is poorly understood. Here we propose a novel model of quartz vein formation associated with fluid advection from host rocks and silica precipitation in a crack, in order to quantify the timescale of crack sealing. When applied to sets of extensional quartz veins around the Nobeoka Thrust of SW Japan, an ancient seismogenic splay fault, our model indicates that a fluid pressure drop of 10–25 MPa facilitates the formation of typical extensional quartz veins over a period of 6.6 × 100–5.6 × 101 years, and that 89%–100% of porosity is recovered within ~3 × 102 years. The former and latter sealing timescales correspond to the extensional stress period (~3 × 101 years) and the recurrence interval of megaearthquakes in the Nankai Trough (~3 × 102 years), respectively. We therefore suggest that silica precipitation in the accretionary wedge controls the recurrence interval of large earthquakes in subduction zones.

Stratigraphic records of tsunamis along the Japan Sea, southwest Hokkaido, northern Japan

AbstractThe stratigraphy of tsunami deposits along the Japan Sea, southwest Hokkaido, northern Japan, reveals tsunami recurrences in this particular area. Sandy tsunami deposits are preserved in small valley plains, whereas gravelly deposits of possible tsunami origin are identified in surficial soils covering a Holocene marine terrace and a slope talus. At least five horizons of tsunami events can be defined in the Okushiri Island, the youngest of which immediately overlies the Ko‐d tephra layer (1640 AD) and was likely formed by the historical Oshima‐Ohshima tsunami in 1741 AD. The four older tsunami deposits, dated using accelerator mass spectrometry 14C, were formed at around the 12th century, 1.5–1.6, 2.4–2.6, and 2.8–3.1 ka, respectively. Tsunami sand beds of the 1741 AD and circa 12th century events are recognized in the Hiyama District of Hokkaido Island, but the older tsunami deposits are missing. The deposits of these two tsunamis are found together at the same sites and distributed in regions where wave heights of the 1993 tsunami (Hokkaido Nansei‐oki earthquake, Mw = 7.7) were less than 3 m. Thus, the 12th century tsunami waves were possibly generated near the south of Okushiri Island, whereas the 1993 tsunami was generated towards the north of the island. The estimated recurrence intervals of paleotsunamis, 200–1100 years with an average of 500 years, likely represents the recurrence interval of large earthquakes which would have occurred along several active faults offshore of southwest Hokkaido.

Earthquake Potential in the Zagros Region, Iran

Seismic strain and b value are used to quantify seismic potential in the Zagros region (Iran). Small b values (0.69 and 0.69) are related to large seismic moment rates (9.96×1017 and 4.12×1017) in southern zones of the Zagros, indicating more frequent large earthquakes. Medium to large b values (0.72 and 0.92) are related to small seismic moment rates (2.94×1016 and 6.80×1016) in middle zones of the Zagros, indicating less frequent large earthquakes. Small b value (0.64) is related to medium seismic moment rate (1.38×1017) in middle to northern zone of the Zagros, indicating frequent large earthquakes. Large b value (0.87) is related to large seismic moment rate (2.29×1017) in northwestern zone, indicating more frequent large earthquakes. Recurrence intervals of large earthquakes (M > 6) are short in southern (10 and 14 years) and northwestern (13 years) zones, while the recurrence intervals are long in the middle (46 and 114 years) and middle to northern (25 years) zones.

Active faulting in a populated low-strain setting (Lower Rhine Graben, Central Europe) identified by geomorphic, geophysical and geological analysis

Abstract The Lower Rhine Graben (Central Europe) is a prime example of a seismically active low-strain rift zone characterized by pronounced anthropogenic and climatic overprint of structures, and long recurrence intervals of large earthquakes. These factors render the identification of active faults and surface ruptures difficult. We investigated two fault scarps in the Lower Rhine Graben, to decipher their structural character, offset and potential seismogenic origin. Both scarps were modified by anthropogenic activity. The Hemmerich site lies c. 20 km SW of Cologne, along the Erft Fault. The Untermaubach site lies SW of Düren, where the Schafberg Fault projects into the Rur River valley. At the Hemmerich site, geomorphic and geophysical data, as well as exploratory coring reveal evidence of repeated normal faulting. Geophysical analysis and palaeoseismological excavation at the Untermaubach site reveal a complex fault zone in Holocene gravels characterized by subtle gravel deformation. Differentiation of tectonic and fluvial features was only possible with trenching, because fault structures and grain sizes of the sediments were below the resolution of the geophysical data. Despite these issues, our investigation demonstrates that valuable insight into past earthquakes and seismogenic deformation in a low-strain environment can be revealed using a multidisciplinary approach.

The Evolution of Stress and Strain around the Bayan Har Block in the Tibetan Plateau

With the constraint of GPS observation, the tectonic deformation of the Bayan Har block and its periphery faults is investigated based on an elastoplastic plane-stress finite element model. The results show that the elastic model cannot explain the current GPS observation in the Bayan Har block. When East Kunlun fault and Yushu-Xianshuihe fault are under plastic yield state or high strain localization, the calculated velocities fit well with the observation values. It indicates that most of the current shear deformations or strain localizations are absorbed by these two large strike-slip faults. In addition, if the recurrence intervals of large earthquakes are used to limit the relative yield strength of major faults, the order of entering the plastic yield state of the major faults around Bayan Har block is as follows. The first faults to enter the yield state are Yushu-Xianshuihe faults and the middle segment of East Kunlun faults. Then, Margaichaka-RolaKangri faults (Mani segment) and Heishibeihu faults would enter the yield state. The last faults to enter the yield state are the eastern segment of East Kunlun faults and Longmenshan faults, respectively. These results help us to understand the slip properties of faults around the southeastward moving Bayan Har block.

A 21-Event, 4,000-Year History of Surface Ruptures in the Anza Seismic Gap, San Jacinto Fault, and Implications for Long-term Earthquake Production on a Major Plate Boundary Fault

Paleoseismic work completed at Hog Lake on the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) near Anza, California, indicates that at least 21 surface ruptures have occurred in the Anza Seismic gap over the past 4,000 years. The ages of the ruptures are constrained by 111 radiocarbon dates, 97 of which fall in stratigraphic order. The average recurrence interval for all ruptures for this period is about 185 ± 105 years, although some ruptures, such as occurred in the April 1918 earthquake, caused only minor displacement. We rate the expression of each interpreted event in each of the twelve developed field exposures presented in this work by assigning numeric values for the presence of different criteria that indicate rupture to a paleo-ground surface. Weakly expressed ruptures, for example the deformation we interpret to be the result of the historical 1918 earthquake, received low scores and are interpreted as smaller earthquakes. From this analysis, we infer that at least fifteen of the identified ruptures are indicative of large earthquakes similar to the penultimate earthquake, inferred to be the M w 7.3 22 November 1800 earthquake. The adjusted recurrence interval for large earthquakes lengthens to approximately 254 years. Comparison with the rupture history at the Mystic Lake paleoseismic site on the Claremont strand indicates that it is plausible that several of the large ruptures identified at Hog Lake could have jumped the Hemet step-over at Mystic Lake and continued on the Claremont strand (or vice versa), but most of the event ages do not match between the two sites, indicating that most ruptures do not jump the step. Finally, comparison with San Andreas Fault ruptures both to the north and south of its juncture with the SJF suggest that some northern SJF ruptures identified at Mystic Lake may correlate with events identified at Wrightwood, but that these northern ruptures have no match at Hog Lake and can not indicate rupture of the entire SJF onto the SAF.

Cosmogenic Nuclide Dating of Earthquakes, Faults, and Toppled Blocks

When the recurrence intervals of large earthquakes span several thousands of years, the dating of fault movements over long time intervals is essential for estimating the next event. Constraining the age of faulting, earthquake recurrence, or toppled rocks is especially important for determining if a fault is likely to break again soon. In recent years, cosmogenic nuclides have provided new insights into the dating of these ground movements. Approaches to gathering this information can be direct, such as dating fault surfaces with 36Cl, or indirect, such as dating fault-offset alluvial fans with 10Be or 26Al. New results from these methods are certain to better define the tectonic and seismic hazards in areas with increasing population density.