Recurrence Interval Of Earthquakes Research Articles

Unveiling crustal deformation patterns along the north Tabriz fault from 2015 to 2022 using multi-temporal InSAR analysis

This paper presents a comprehensive study on the recognition of crustal deformation patterns surrounding the North Tabriz Fault in Northwestern Iran, utilizing Multi-Temporal InSAR analysis. The fault, despite its seismic inactivity for over two centuries, has a long history of ancient seismicity, with earthquake recurrence intervals exceeding two centuries. This makes it highly susceptible to future activity and the generation of significant and devastating earthquakes. However, limited research has been conducted on extracting and modeling deformation patterns of the North Tabriz Fault to identify its active segments. The primary objective of this study is to derive a general trend for fault displacement and investigate regions under pressure in terms of abnormal crustal movements. The results indicate that the Earth's crust in the surrounding regions of the central and northwest segments of the fault exhibits an upward movement ranging from approximately 2 to 10 millimeters per year from 2015 to 2022. In contrast, neighboring areas of the northwestern fault, as well as the northwestern, western, and southwestern parts of Tabriz County, experience ground subsidence with rates ranging from approximately 5 to 40 millimeters per year. These findings are consistent with GNSS-derived line-of-sight measurements obtained from some IPGN stations around the fault with an RMSE of 1.72 mm/yr. Furthermore, the study identifies critical points near the fault that exhibit varying and diverse displacement patterns over time, suggesting significant strain and notable stress within the subsurface environment. According to the analysis of time series data on crustal movements at the identified critical points, it has been found that the prevailing motion pattern of the Earth's crust within the fault zone largely conforms to a sinusoidal descending pattern. Additionally, recent earthquakes in the northwest vicinity of the fault have been observed to occur close to these critical points. Using line-of-sight (LOS) data acquired at these critical points, the study estimates a slip rate of 7.71 ± 0.01 mm/year and a locking depth of 11.27 ± 0.01 km, contributing to a better understanding of the fault's seismogenic behavior. These findings provide valuable insights into the crustal deformation patterns around the North Tabriz Fault, highlighting active segments and regions under pressure.

Geologic Input Databases for the 2025 Puerto Rico—U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model Update: Crustal Faults Component

Abstract The last National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) was published in 2003. In advance of the 2025 PRVI NSHM update, we created three geologic input databases to summarize new onshore and offshore fault source information in the northern Caribbean region between 62°–70° W and 16°–21° N. These databases, of fault sections, fault-zone polygons, and geologic estimates of fault activity (fault-slip rate and earthquake recurrence intervals) at specific sites, document updates to fault parameters used in prior seismic hazard models in PRVI. Fault sources were reviewed from published studies since 2003, which document substantial changes to the understanding of fault location, geometry, or activity. New fault section sources were added for features that meet the criteria of (1) length ≥7 km, (2) unequivocal evidence of recurrent tectonic Quaternary activity, and (3) documentation that is publicly available in a peer-reviewed source. In addition, we revised several broad areal sources, such as the Mona and Anegada extensional zones. The 2003 model included three fault sections and two fault-zone polygons (areal sources). These databases include 35 fault sections, 6 fault-zone polygons, and 51 earthquake geology sites. To characterize fault activity rates, slip-rate bins were assigned based on landscape expression and paleoseismic trench observations for faults without published slip-rate sites. Additional fault sources were evaluated but not included in these databases due to a lack of published information about fault location, geometry, or recurrent Quaternary activity. The PRVI NSHM 2025 geologic input databases describe crustal faulting; the geometries and coupling of Puerto Rico subduction zone and Muertos Trough models are considered in a separate database. Updates to the fault sections, fault-zone polygons, and earthquake geology databases can help inform the location and recurrence rate of damaging earthquakes in the PRVI NSHM implementation.

Role of coseismic bedrock landslides in the landscape evolution of high-relief mountainous terrain: Insights from detrital 10Be dilution modeling

Episodic landslides supply vast quantities of debris from hillslopes to channels, resulting in the dilution of cosmogenic nuclides in fluvial sediment. This study revisited the nuclide dilution concept and proposed a novel model framework to quantify landslide-derived sediment yields to interpret the responses of entire landscape systems to tectonic forcing in an active orogen. The model was applied to datasets of detrital 10Be concentrations obtained from the Minjiang catchment in the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, where the impacts of coseismic landslides were documented during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Presumable model parameters were evaluated through multifaceted geospatial analyses by adopting the normalized channel steepness index as a proxy for background denudation rate, which was then converted to the corresponding nuclide concentration; the fluvial channel geometry was adopted for evaluating pre-event fluvial sediment storage. The scaling factors for quantifying the landslide debris influx were obtained via inversion of the diluted 10Be concentrations and corresponding landslide inventory to verify the feasibility of the model. The calibrated model was then applied at the regional scale to evaluate the long-term net denudation of the hillslopes with a certain earthquake recurrence interval. The resulting spatial distribution of increased denudation is consistent with very-long-term exhumation rates derived from low-temperature thermochronology, implying the critical role of coseismic landslides in mass removal from hillslopes to counterbalance long-term tectonic uplift.

Intraplate active deformation: Lake Salt fault zone and source of the Obruk (Bor-Niğde) earthquakes, Cappadocia-central Anatolia, Türkiye

Intraplate strike slip deformation structures play a crucial role in understanding how the earthquake are triggered, and respond to long-term deformation in plate interiors. One of the examples for intraplate structure is the Lake Salt Fault Zone (LSFZ) in Türkiye, located at the Central Anatolia region which has hosted a few moderate magnitude earthquakes. The LSFZ extends in NW-SE direction along the eastern border of the Lake Salt basin. In the western and central sections, it exhibits a rather linear trace, and it marks the west-northwestern boundary of the Cappadocian plateau. Along its strike, two big cities, namely, Aksaray and Niğde, and some significant eruption centers (the Hasan, Keçibuyduran and Melendiz Mountain stratovolcanoes) are located, and there is a 12 km right lateral offset. LSFZ has four main segments, namely, Karacaören, Keçikalesi, Obruk and Büyükkaraoğlan fault segments, and they have hosted two moderate-sized (Mw = 5.1 to 5.2) earthquakes (on September 20, 2020 and February 25, 2023) at the localities approximately 5 km ENE and SSW of Obruk Town (Niğde). Their focal mechanisms revealed that the LSFZ exhibits dominantly dextral strike-slip faulting with normal component. The vertical and horizontal displacement rates along the LSFZ are 0.14 mm/yr and 4.6 mm/yr, respectively. The recurrence interval of earthquakes of Mw ≥ 6.7 on the LSFZ is more than one thousand years, owing to the low slip rate. We propose that the LSFZ is in a seismic gap having potential to host a large earthquake.

Probability and recurrence interval of large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6) in the Himalayan seismicity zone

The Himalayan Mountains are one of the world’s most seismically active regions. Due to the active seismic status of the Himalayan belt and ongoing development activities in the region, it is important to keep the seismic hazard estimates updated by incorporating historical and new data. This study uses the Gutenberg-Richter relations for four seismogenic source zones (SSZ) to estimate the probability of earthquakes of a specified magnitude in a given time interval. We used exponential, Weibull, Rayleigh, and log-normal statistical models to assess the probability of earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6). The probable recurrence time of the large earthquake (Mw ≥ 6) can be estimated by maximizing the conditional probability estimates. This recurrence interval is calculated after the elapsed time since the most recent large earthquake in the region. We also apply an autoregressive (AR) forecasting technique to predict earthquake recurrence intervals. The results indicate that the approximate recurrence interval of the large earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6) may be 22.052 ± 5.65 years within the seismicity zones, as per our statistical estimates based on limited and available datasets. The results of this study may be useful for the agencies involved in assessing seismic hazards and developing mitigation and preparedness strategies in the region.

The role of heterogeneous stress in earthquake cycle models of the Hikurangi-Kermadec subduction zone

Summary Seismic and tsunami hazard modelling and preparedness are challenged by uncertainties in the earthquake source process. Important parameters such as the recurrence interval of earthquakes of a given magnitude at a particular location, the probability of multi-fault rupture, earthquake clustering, rupture directivity and slip distribution are often poorly constrained. Physics-based earthquake simulators, such as RSQSim, offer a means of probing uncertainties in these parameters by generating long-term catalogues of earthquake ruptures on a system of known faults. The fault initial stress state in these simulations is typically prescribed as a single uniform value, which can promote characteristic earthquake behaviours and reduce variability in modelled events. Here, we test the role of spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of the initial stresses and frictional properties on earthquake cycle simulations. We focus on the Hikurangi-Kermadec subduction zone, which may produce Mw > 9.0 earthquakes and likely poses a major hazard and risk to Aotearoa New Zealand. We explore RSQSim simulations of Hikurangi-Kermadec subduction earthquake cycles in which we vary the rate and state coefficients (a and b). The results are compared with the magnitude-frequency distribution (MFD) of the instrumental earthquake catalogue and with empirical slip scaling laws from global earthquakes. Our results suggest stress heterogeneity produces more realistic and less characteristic synthetic catalogues, making them particularly well suited for hazard and risk assessment. We further find that the initial stress effects are dominated by the initial effective normal stresses, since the normal stresses evolve more slowly than the shear stresses. A heterogeneous stress model with a constant pore-fluid pressure ratio and a constant state coefficient (b) of 0.003 produces the best fit to MFDs and empirical scaling laws, while the model with variable frictional properties produces the best fit to earthquake depth distribution and empirical scaling laws. This model is our preferred initial stress state and frictional property settings for earthquake modelling of the Hikurangi-Kermadec subduction interface. Introducing heterogeneity of other parameters within RSQSim (e.g. friction coefficient, reference slip rate, characteristic distance, initial state variable, etc) could further improve the applicability of the synthetic earthquake catalogues to seismic hazard problems and form the focus of future research.

Vertical Crustal Deformation Due To Viscoelastic Earthquake Cycles at Subduction Zones: Implications for Nankai and Cascadia

AbstractDespite significant progress in studying subduction earthquake cycles, the vertical deformation is still not well understood. Here, we use a generic viscoelastic earthquake‐cycle model that has recently been validated by horizontal observations to explore the dynamics of vertical earthquake‐cycle deformation. Conditioned on two dimensionless parameters (i.e., the ratio of earthquake recurrence interval T to mantle Maxwell relaxation time tM (T/tM) and the ratio of downdip seismogenic depth D to elastic upper‐plate thickness Hc (D/Hc)), the modeled viscoelastic deformation exhibits significant spatiotemporal deviations from the simple time‐independent elastic solution. Caution thus should be exercised in interpreting fault kinematics with vertical observations if ignoring Earth's viscoelasticity. By systematically exploring these two parameters, we further investigate three metrics that characterize the predicted vertical deformation: the coastal pivot line (CPL), the uplift zone (UZ) landward above the downdip seismogenic extent, and the secondary subsidence zone (SSZ) in the back‐arc region. We find that these metrics can all be time‐dependent, subject to D/Hc and T/tM. The CPL location and the UZ width are mainly controlled by D/Hc and T/tM, respectively. The presence of the SSZ is prevalent during the interseismic phase due to viscous mantle flow driven by ongoing plate convergence. Contemporary vertical deformation in Nankai and Cascadia is largely consistent with the model predictions and features differences mainly related to contrasting D/Hc values in the two margins. These findings suggest that vertical crustal deformation bears fruitful information about subduction‐zone dynamics and is potentially useful for inversions of key subduction‐zone parameters, deserving properly designed monitoring.

How Does the Onset of Offset Influence Geologic Slip Rates?

Abstract Geologic slip rates are typically based on the displacement accrued by a geomorphic or stratigraphic feature and the age of the offset feature. Because slip rates are commonly calculated by dividing the displacement of a faulted marker by its age, they contain two open time intervals: the elapsed time between the age of an offset feature and the age of the earthquake that displaced the feature, and the time between the present-day and the most recent earthquake. Here, we explore the influence of including unconstrained open intervals in geologic slip rate calculations. We test the degree to which these open intervals affect geologic slip rates and their uncertainties, and we find that their influence depends primarily on mean earthquake recurrence intervals (RIs). Slip rates on faults with longer RIs, such as the Wasatch fault, can be greatly influenced by an increase of up to 20% when accounting for open intervals. In contrast, slip rates on faults with shorter RIs, such as the San Andreas fault, are only slightly influenced by the assumption that slip rates calculated over open intervals approximate those calculated over closed intervals. Our analyses indicate that faults with moderate slip rates (∼0.2–5 mm/yr) are sensitive to both open interval effects themselves, as well as methods to quantify and account for these effects. We re-evaluate how slip rates are calculated and defined in displacement–time space using published deformation records. We explore the utility of assigning a probability distribution to the initiation of offset of the oldest faulted feature and the timing of the most recent earthquake (MRE). We find that calculating geologic slip rates without using probability distributions that capture the timing of the MRE and the onset of offset of the oldest faulted feature, especially on slow-to-moderate slip rate faults, can lead to systematic underestimation of average geologic slip rates.

Paleoseismic Investigation of the Thousand Springs Fault, Northwestern Basin and Range, Oregon

ABSTRACT Earthquake recurrence intervals, surface-rupture extents, and interactions between faults provide insight into how faults behave and are critical for seismic hazard mitigation and earthquake forecasting. Investigating the paleoseismology of spatially related faults can reveal strain distribution and whether faults rupture as a system or independently. Summer Lake basin, a graben in the northwestern Basin and Range with four active faults (three of which have prior paleoseismic investigations), provides an opportunity to investigate fault interactions. To expand the paleoseismic record, two trenches were excavated across the previously undocumented Thousand Springs fault, exposing a normal fault zone that offsets a sequence of deep- to shallow-water lake sediments, sand dunes containing reworked Mazama ash, and other Cascades-sourced tephra. Tephra units were correlated to known units by their physical characteristics, stratigraphic sequence, glass chemistry, and two new radiocarbon dates from the uppermost lake sediments. Using trench exposures, measured vertical separations through auguring, colluvial wedges, and extrapolated offsets based on a constant sedimentation rate, we identified at least five surface-rupturing earthquakes with a total offset of 3.4 + 2/−1 m in the past ∼65 ka. The oldest event (EH5) occurred at 63.8 ± 1.5 ka, event horizon 4 at 36.2 ± 12.7 ka (which could be more than one event), and event horizon 3 at 24.6 ± 0.3 ka. Event horizon 2, a warping event at our site, is likely more than one event and occurred between 7.5 and 10 ka; and the most recent event (EH1+), most likely more than one event, occurred between 3.3 and 7.7 ka. Several events correlate, within error, with events on other faults in the Summer Lake basin, suggesting that (1) the faults generally rupture together as a system, (2) the most recent earthquake may have ruptured all faults in the region, and (3) fault rupture is influenced by the rapid regression of Lake Chewaucan (∼13 ka).

The Stress State before the MS 6.8 Luding Earthquake on 5 September 2022 in Sichuan, China: A Retrospective View Based on the b-Value

On 5 September 2022 (BJT), Luding, located in southwestern Sichuan Province, China, experienced an MS 6.8 earthquake. This earthquake occurred within the historical rupture zone of the 1786 MS 7.75 event, part of the southern section of the Xianshui He Fault belt. Given the average 155-year recurrence interval for strong earthquakes in this area, the 236 years since the last event made this earthquake somewhat expected. However, prior to this event, we did not detect any anomalies indicating low surface b-values, which are often indicative of a high-stress state in the source area before strong earthquakes, as highlighted by numerous studies. Our research focused on the northern section of the eastern boundary of the Sichuan–Yunnan sub-block, encompassing the Xianshui He, Anning He, Zemu He, and Daliang Shan fault belts. We meticulously located earthquakes of ML ≥ 1.5 from 2009 to May 2022. The catalog was divided into two periods: 2009–2014 and 2015–May 2022. Using an AIC-constraint method, we analyzed the changes in b-values (Δb) in the latter period compared to the former. Our findings revealed a significant abnormal Δb zone (Δb < −0.3), with a radius of approximately 50 km, when ΔAIC ≥ 2 was selected. Intriguingly, the epicenter of the recent Luding MS 6.8 earthquake fell within this abnormal zone. Furthermore, we calculated the b-value cross-section for the southern section of the Xianshui He fault belt using a directory of precisely located small earthquakes. This revealed that the location, scale, and shape of the abnormally low-b-value area corresponded with the large displacement co-seismic area of the main earthquake, affirming the b-value’s effectiveness in identifying asperities. The b-value’s temporal evolution prior to the mainshock exhibited a nearly decade-long continuous decrease, signifying a long-term stress-loading process akin to that observed before many strong earthquakes. The b-value anomalies observed from different profiles before the Luding earthquake underline the necessity of a comprehensive, multi-dimensional analysis of such anomalies. Finally, our analysis indicates that nine earthquakes with MS ≥ 6.5, including the Luding MS 6.8 event, have contributed to increased Coulomb Failure Stress change (ΔCFS) in the Daofu (DF)–Kangding (KD) section of the Xianshui He fault belt and the northern section of the Anning He fault belt south of Shimian (SM), with amplitudes surpassing the 0.01 MPa threshold. This suggests the potential for strong earthquakes in these zones.

Geophysical constraints on continental rejuvenation in central China: Implications for outward growth of the Tibetan Plateau

Continental rejuvenation results from the tectonic reactivation of crustal structures and lithospheric reworking by mantle flow. Geochemical observations and field mapping have traditionally provided the primary evidence for the secular evolution of crustal composition and tectonic processes during continental rejuvenation. Nonetheless, the impact of continental rejuvenation on the observed present-day strain rate and orogenic-scale lithospheric structure has not been well constrained. The pre-existing E-W−trending Central China Orogenic Belt has been overprinted by the N-S−trending Central Longitudinal Seismic Belt and constitutes the intracontinental West Qinling Syntaxis in central China, where the tectonic setting changes eastward from contraction to extension. Combining updated global positioning system data and high-resolution crustal seismic tomography, we reveal a modern continental rejuvenation process within the West Qinling Syntaxis in central China. The northward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau’s weak lithospheric layer (middle-lower crust and lithospheric mantle) of southwestern China relative to the rigid Sichuan Basin/Ordos Block of the eastern West Qinling Syntaxis results in regional dextral shearing that shapes the Central Longitudinal Seismic Belt and defines the eastern Tibetan Plateau margin. The pre-existing E-W−trending Central China Orogenic Belt has been preserved above the brittle-ductile transition zone, and the northward movement of the deep lithospheric layer drives the deformation of the upper crust in the West Qinling Syntaxis. Our results, along with previous studies, suggest the presence of an intracontinental lithospheric interchange structure in central China. The continental rejuvenation of the West Qinling Syntaxis results from a combination of fault reactivation in the upper crust (Stage I, Eocene−Oligocene) and reworking of the deep lithosphere (Stage II, middle−late Miocene) related to the plateau-wide shift in stress accommodation ultimately driven by the redistribution of mass outward from the central Tibetan Plateau. At present, the transition zone between the high- and low-velocity anomalies along the Central Longitudinal Seismic Belt not only shapes the landscape boundary but controls the size and recurrence interval of earthquakes within the West Qinling Syntaxis in central China.

Late Quaternary activity of the NW Cardrona Fault, Otago, New Zealand

ABSTRACT We use new paleoseismic data and lidar to reassess late Quaternary activity of the NW (northwest) Cardrona Fault, a ∼60 km long range-bounding fault in Otago. Paleoseismic investigations of the NW Cardrona Fault were conducted in the 1980s, but findings were limited by a paucity of materials suitable for dating. Here, re-exposure and re-assessment of a 1980s trench at Macdonalds Creek provide stratigraphic evidence for two surface rupturing earthquakes on the NW Cardrona Fault. Through Optically Stimulated Luminescence dating and OxCal modelling, we estimate these earthquakes occurred at (mean ± 2 standard deviations, σ) 20.5 ± 7.8 ka and 8.7 ± 6.6 ka. The timings of these earthquakes are consistent with those proposed from re-interpretation of another 1980s trench on the NW Cardrona Fault in the Kawarau River valley, ∼25 km farther south. The slip rate and recurrence interval derived from the Macdonalds Creek trench data are 0.13 ± 0.05 mm/yr and 11,800 ± 5100 years (2σ error) respectively. These estimates imply lower slip rates and longer earthquake recurrence intervals on the NW Cardrona Fault than previously assessed.

ОЦЕНКА ИНТЕНСИВНОСТИ СЕЙСМИЧЕСКИХ КОЛЕБАНИЙ НА БАЙКАЛО-ОЛЁКМИНСКОМ УЧАСТКЕ БАЙКАЛО-АМУРСКОЙ ЖЕЛЕЗНОДОРОЖНОЙ МАГИСТРАЛИ

In this study, we calculated seismic intensity for the Baikal-Olekma section of the Baikal-Amur railway based on the data on seismicity at the northeastern flank of the Baikal rift zone in 1985–2021. During the analysis of earthquakes with intensity at the epicenter higher than 4 (1 484 events), we selected from the total number of the recorded seismic events (more than 150 thousands of earthquakes with M ≥ 1.0) 270 earthquakes with MS = 2.1–6.6 whose calculated intensity exceeded 4 directly on the railway track. The highest intensity values (8–9) were obtained for the large earthquakes close to the Baikal-Olekma section of the Baikal-Amur railway (∆ < 10 km, MS = 6.1–6.2). Along the considered section of the railway, a recurrence interval of such seismic events is 20 to 60 years. The data obtained through calculations are in good agreement with the available macroseismic data which confirms the correctness of the results. At the same time, macroseismic effects from strong (МS ≥ 6.6) but remote earthquakes (∆ = 360–1000 km) were found to have no significant impact on the Baikal-Olekma section of the Baikal-Amur railway. The calculated values of intensity and recurrence intervals of earthquakes must be taken into account when designing, constructing and operating industrial and civil facilities within the study area.

Strong earthquake recurrence interval in the southern segment of the Red River Fault, southwestern China

Along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, an important boundary fault, known as the Red River Fault (RRF), formed during the extrusion of mantle and lower crustal materials beneath the Tibetan Plateau. The characteristics of RRF activity are important for understanding the tectonic evolution of the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. There is less knowledge about the strong earthquake recurrence interval in the southern segment of the RRF than about its northern segment. In this study, based on the characteristics of the active tectonic landform, three paleoseismic trenches were excavated in Adipo Village north of Honghe County in the southern segment of the RRF. In these trenches, three paleoseismic events that occurred in the middle and late Holocene were identified. According to the 14C dating results, these events were constrained to 785–504 BC, 26–492 AD, and 1,415–1857 AD. The average earthquake recurrence interval was determined to be approximately 960–1,320 a.

New paleoseismic events reveal decamillenial recurrence time for large earthquakes (M ≥ 7) along the Yuguang Graben Fault in North China

Paleoseismic studies are critical for the assessment and prediction of large earthquakes (M ≥ 7). These studies involve excavating and analyzing evidence from surface–rupturing earthquakes. However, they often face limitations in spatiotemporal resolution. The Yuguang Graben, located in the northern Shanxi Grabens of North China, contains an abundance of Quaternary loess that can be utilized for extending paleoseismic records. Fine-grained deposits of loess contrast sharply with gravel deposits of the colluvial wedge, making the wedge shape apparent. To enhance our understanding of earthquake behavior in the Yuguang Graben, we excavated a trench on terrace T2 of the Songzhikou segment of the Yuguang Graben Fault (YGF). We used LiDAR to obtain a high–resolution orthophoto of the trench wall. Through OSL dating of colluvial wedges and loess, we identified at least four large paleoseismic events with a magnitude of M ≥ 7 that occurred along the YGF. These events took place at >77.6 ± 5.1, 63.9 ± 5.1, 51.0 ± 4.3, and 37.3 ± 0.3 kyr, respectively. Combined with previous paleoseismic studies, we identified seven paleoseismic events since the late Pleistocene. These findings reveal that earthquakes occurring on YGF follow a quasiperiodic pattern with an average recurrence interval of about 12 ± 3 kyr. The elapsed time of the most recent earthquake near the recurrence interval suggests an increased risk of a large earthquake along the YGF. We also analyzed earthquake clusters generated by neighboring faults in the active northeastern boundary of the Ordos block. Our analysis indicated that fault interactions can affect the recurrence interval of earthquakes along single faults, while regional seismic activity tends to concentrate in time during a seismically active period. These observations underscore the importance of expanding paleoseismic records and exploring regional seismic hazards to gain a more comprehensive understanding of earthquakes.

The footprint of a historical paleoearthquake: the sixth-century-CE event in the European western Southern Alps

Abstract. Low-deformation regions are characterized by long earthquake recurrence intervals. Here, it is fundamental to extend back the record of past events as much as possible to properly assess seismic hazards. Evidence from single sites or proxies may be not compelling, whereas we obtain a more substantial picture from the integration of paleo- and archeoseismic evidence at multiple sites, eventually supplemented with historical chronicles. In the city of Como (N Italy), we perform stratigraphic and sedimentological analyses on the sedimentary sequences at Via Manzoni and we document earthquake archeological effects at the Roman baths by means of structure from motion and field surveys. Radiocarbon dating and chronological constraints from the archeological site allow us to bracket the time of occurrence of the deformations to the sixth century CE. We interpret the observed deformations as due to earthquake ground shaking and provide constraints on the lower threshold for the triggering of such evidence. We move toward a regional view to infer possible relevant seismic sources by exploiting a dataset of published paleoseismic evidence in Swiss and N Italy lakes. We perform an inverse grid search to identify the magnitude and location of an earthquake that can explain all the positive and negative evidence consistent with the time interval of the event dated at Como. Our results show that an earthquake (minimum Mw 6.32) with epicenter located at the border between Italy and Switzerland may account for all the observed effects; a similar event in the sixth century CE has not been documented so far by historical sources. Our study calls for the need to refine the characterization of the local seismic hazard, especially considering that this region seems unprepared to face the effects of an earthquake size similar to the one inferred for the sixth-century-CE event.

The Role of Clay in Limiting Frictional Healing in Fault Gouges

AbstractFrictional healing is fundamental to the seismic cycle and plays a role in the energy balance, dynamics, and recurrence interval of earthquakes and slow slip events. Although the healing behavior of quartz has been studied extensively, the role of clay content is less understood. We tested synthetic mixtures of quartz and smectite (10%–100% smectite) in a double‐direct shear configuration to measure frictional healing. We show that the magnitude and rate of healing decreases systematically with higher clay content (from 0.008/decade at 10% smectite to 0.002/decade at 100% smectite). Healing scales with both the magnitude of stress relaxation during holds and layer‐normal compaction of the gouge. We suggest this reflects the alignment of clay minerals, leading to saturation of the real area of contact that limits restrengthening during holds. The low healing rates of clay‐rich faults—together with rate‐neutral to rate‐strengthening friction—should promote frequent, small failures or stable sliding.

Paleoseismic Earthquake Recurrence Interval Derivation for the 2022 Revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model

Abstract Recurrence intervals of ground-surface rupturing earthquakes are one of numerous datasets used to constrain the rates of fault ruptures in the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022). Paleoearthquake timing and single-event displacement (SED) data in the New Zealand Paleoseismic Site Database version 1.0 alongside geologic and geodetic slip rates from the New Zealand Community Fault Model version 1.0 and NZ NSHM 2022 Geodetic Deformation Model were used to estimate recurrence intervals on faults across New Zealand for inclusion in the NZ NSHM 2022. Past earthquake timings were fit with lognormal, exponential, and Brownian Passage Time recurrence models to derive probability density functions (PDFs) of mean recurrence interval (MRI) in a Bayesian framework. At some sites, SED and slip-rate (SR) data were used to estimate PDFs of MRI; and at sites where timings, slip rate, and displacement data are available, the timings-based and slip-based PDFs were combined to develop tighter constraints on MRI. Using these approaches, we produce a database of maximum-likelihood MRIs and their uncertainties for 80 sites across New Zealand. The resulting recurrence interval dataset is publicly available and is the largest such dataset in New Zealand to date. It provides a valuable resource for future seismic hazard modeling and highlights areas that would benefit from future study.

SLIP SOURCE MODEL OF THE 1995 NEFTEGORSK EARTHQUAKE (NORTH SAKHALIN) FROM GEODETIC DATA

The May 27, 1995 Mw=7.0 Neftegorsk earthquake occurred in the north of Sakhalin Island, rupturing the Upper Piltun fault, a secondary feature of the main Hokkaido-Sakhalin regional fault zone. The fault geometry, coseismic slip model, and Coulomb stress changes in the earthquake focal area were calculated based on a finite fault modeling. We used near-field coseismic offsets at 24 points obtained by comparison between predating triangulation and GPS observations, which were collected before and after the earthquake. Our slip distribution model shows two major slip patches. Larger slip asperity (amplitude up to 6.36 m) was characterized by right-lateral strike-slip movements, which correspond to focal mechanism of the earthquake, whereas the northern segment has reverse fault mechanism with maximum slip of 2.64 m. The fault length and width, average slip and stress drop values are estimated at 78 km, 28 km, 1.91 m and 11.3 MPa, respectively. The estimated release moment is approximately 7.49×1019 N∙m equal to Mw=7.2, which is larger than that reported by the USGS and GCMT but consistent with the values reported by other researchers. The coseismic Coulomb stress changes enhanced the stress by more than 10 MPa on the southern segment of the Gyrgylaninsky fault and middle section of the Hokkaido–Sakhalin fault. Seismic risks on the nearest faults cannot be ignored in the future despite the fact that the earthquake with a magnitude of 5.8 occurred in 2010 near the Gyrgylaninsky fault. The recent GPS rates in the surroundings of the Neftegorsk surface rupture mean that the recurrence interval for similar earthquakes may be more than a thousand years.

Geologic and Geophysical Evidence of Repeated Normal Faulting on the Itozawa Fault—the Source of the Mw 6.6 Iwaki Earthquake Triggered by the Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki Megathrust Earthquake, Northeast Japan

ABSTRACT The 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake ruptured the 500 km long and 200 km wide convergent plate margin between the North American and Pacific plates, and changed the crustal stress field and triggered widespread seismic activity in northeast Japan. In particular, many crustal earthquakes struck the southern Fukushima area. The largest inland normal-faulting earthquake with Mw 6.6 occurred on the northwest-trending Yunodake fault and the north-northwest-trending Itozawa fault on 11 April 2011. The coseismic surface ruptures appeared along the previously identified active and presumed active faults. To investigate the near-surface structure of the Itozawa fault, we conducted ground-penetrating radar (GPR) profiling across the fault, and two drilling surveys on its hanging-wall and footwall blocks. The GPR survey line about 50 m long was located near the previous trenching site. The GPR two-way travel-time sections were collected by common-offset modes by 50 and 100 MHz GPR systems. We acquired common midpoint ensembles on both sides of the surface rupture for depth conversion of the time sections. The resulting GPR sections show detailed subsurface structures to a depth of about 7 m. We identified event horizons for the 2011, penultimate, antepenultimate, and preantepenultimate earthquakes, indicating that the Itozawa fault has ruptured repeatedly as a normal fault. The vertical displacements during these earthquake events, obtained from the GPR sections, were about 0.8, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.7 m, respectively. These observations suggest that the coseismic surface offset amount on the Itozawa fault varies greatly. The recurrence intervals of surface-rupturing earthquakes on the Itozawa fault, calculated from the previous research and this study, are much longer than those of giant interplate earthquakes along the Japan trench, such as the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. We conclude that not every giant earthquake along the Japan trench triggers a rupture of the Itozawa fault.