Probability Of Recruitment Research Articles

Information-adaptive clinical trials with selective recruitment and binary outcomes.

Selective recruitment designs preferentially recruit individuals who are estimated to be statistically informative onto a clinical trial. Individuals who are expected to contribute less information have a lower probability of recruitment. Furthermore, in an information-adaptive design, recruits are allocated to treatment arms in a manner that maximises information gain. The informativeness of an individual depends on their covariate (or biomarker) values, and how information is defined is a critical element of information-adaptive designs. In this paper, we define and evaluate four different methods for quantifying statistical information. Using both experimental data and numerical simulations, we show that selective recruitment designs can offer a substantial increase in statistical power compared with randomised designs. In trials without selective recruitment, we find that allocating individuals to treatment arms according to information-adaptive protocols also leads to an increase in statistical power. Consequently, selective recruitment designs can potentially achieve successful trials using fewer recruits thereby offering economic and ethical advantages. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Increased lifetime reproductive success of first‐hatched siblings in Common Kestrels Falco tinnunculus

Order of birth has profound consequences on offspring across taxa during development and can have effects on individuals later in life. In birds, differential maternal allocation and investment in their progeny lead to variance in the environmental conditions that offspring experience during growth within the brood. In particular, laying and hatching order have been proposed to influence individual quality during the growing period, but little is known about the fitness consequences that these two factors have for offspring from a lifetime perspective. We explored the effect of laying and hatching order on post‐fledgling survival (measured as recruitment probability) and lifetime reproductive success (LRS) in Common Kestrels Falco tinnunculus, using a long‐term and individual‐based dataset. First‐hatched chicks showed higher survival probability and LRS than their siblings. This effect was not due to body condition of the individuals at adulthood, the quality of their mates or the reproductive outcome compared with later‐hatched individuals. Instead, first‐hatched chicks had a higher recruitment probability. This could be explained by the higher body condition attained by first‐hatched chicks at the end of the nesting period, perhaps due to an enhanced competitive advantage for food over their siblings at the time of hatching. Laying order, in contrast to hatching order, appeared to have little or no effect on LRS. Our results suggest that hatching order within siblings predicts fitness, and that better early‐life conditions during growth experienced by first‐hatched chicks improve first survival and then recruitment, resulting in an enhanced LRS.

Defaunation effects on plant recruitment depend on size matching and size trade-offs in seed-dispersal networks.

Defaunation by humans causes a loss of large animals in many ecosystems globally. Recent work has emphasized the consequences of downsizing in animal communities for ecosystem functioning. However, no study so far has integrated network theory and life-history trade-offs to mechanistically evaluate the functional consequences of defaunation in plant-animal networks. Here, we simulated an avian seed-dispersal network and its derived ecosystem function seedling recruitment to assess the relative importance of different size-related mechanisms. Specifically, we considered size matching (between bird size and seed size) and size trade-offs, which are driven by differences in plant or animal species abundance (negative size-quantity relationship) as well as in recruitment probability and disperser quality (positive size-quality relationship). Defaunation led to impoverished seedling communities in terms of diversity and seed size, but only if models accounted for size matching. In addition, size trade-off in plants, in concert with size matching, provoked rapid decays in seedling abundance in response to defaunation. These results underscore a disproportional importance of large animals for ecosystem functions. Downsizing in ecological networks will have severe consequences for ecosystem functioning, especially in interaction networks that are structured by size matching between plants and animals.

Mapping Regional Differences of Local Pressure-Volume Curves With Electrical Impedance Tomography.

Lung-protective mechanical ventilation aims to prevent alveolar collapse and overdistension, but reliable bedside methods to quantify them are lacking. We propose a quantitative descriptor of the shape of local pressure-volume curves derived from electrical impedance tomography, for computing maps that highlight the presence and location of regions of presumed tidal recruitment (i.e., elastance decrease during inflation, pressure-volume curve with upward curvature) or overdistension (i.e., elastance increase during inflation, downward curvature). Secondary analysis of experimental cohort study. University research facility. Twelve mechanically ventilated pigs. After induction of acute respiratory distress syndrome by hydrochloric acid instillation, animals underwent a decremental positive end-expiratory pressure titration (steps of 2 cm H2O starting from ≥ 26 cm H2O). Electrical impedance tomography-derived maps were computed at each positive end-expiratory pressure-titration step, and whole-lung CT taken every second steps. Airway flow and pressure were recorded to compute driving pressure and elastance. Significant correlations between electrical impedance tomography-derived maps and positive end-expiratory pressure indicate that, expectedly, tidal recruitment increases in dependent regions with decreasing positive end-expiratory pressure (p < 0.001) and suggest that overdistension increases both at high and low positive end-expiratory pressures in nondependent regions (p < 0.027), supporting the idea of two different scenarios of overdistension occurrence. Significant correlations with CT measurements were observed: electrical impedance tomography-derived tidal recruitment with poorly aerated regions (r = 0.43; p < 0.001); electrical impedance tomography-derived overdistension with nonaerated regions at lower positive end-expiratory pressures and with hyperaerated regions at higher positive end-expiratory pressures (r ≥ 0.72; p < 0.003). Even for positive end-expiratory pressure levels minimizing global elastance and driving pressure, electrical impedance tomography-derived maps showed nonnegligible regions of presumed overdistension and tidal recruitment. Electrical impedance tomography-derived maps of pressure-volume curve shapes allow to detect regions in which elastance changes during inflation. This could promote individualized mechanical ventilation by minimizing the probability of local tidal recruitment and/or overdistension. Electrical impedance tomography-derived maps might become clinically feasible and relevant, being simpler than currently available alternative approaches.

HIV-Related Sexual Risk Among Transgender Men Who Are Gay, Bisexual, or Have Sex With Men.

This study is among the first to examine factors associated with HIV-related sexual risk among transgender men and other transmasculine persons who are gay, bisexual, or have sex with men (T-GBMSM). In 2009-2010, 433 transgender people in Ontario, Canada, participated in a multimode respondent-driven sampling survey, including 158 T-GBMSM. Analyses were weighted using respondent-driven sampling II methods to adjust for differential recruitment probabilities; confidence intervals (CI) were adjusted for clustering by shared recruiter. Prevalence ratios (PR) for associations with past-year high sexual risk (condomless intercourse outside a seroconcordant monogamous relationship) were estimated using average marginal predictions from logistic regression. Of T-GBMSM (mean age = 29.8; 52% living full time in felt gender; 25% Aboriginal or persons of color; 0% self-reported HIV positive), 10% had high sexual risk activity in the past year. Among the 34% with a past-year cisgender (non-transgender) male sex partner, 29% had high sexual risk. In multivariable analyses, older age, childhood sexual abuse (adjusted PR, APR = 14.03, 95% CI: 2.32 to 84.70), living full time in one's felt gender (APR = 5.20, 95% CI: 1.11 to 24.33), and being primarily or exclusively attracted to men (APR = 5.54, 95% CI: 2.27 to 13.54) were each associated with sexual risk. Of psychosocial factors examined, past-year stimulant use (APR = 4.02, 95% CI: 1.31 to 12.30) and moderate depressive symptoms (APR = 5.77, 95% CI: 1.14 to 29.25) were associated with higher sexual risk. T-GBMSM seem to share some HIV acquisition risk factors with their cisgender counterparts. HIV prevention interventions targeting T-GBMSM who are predominantly attracted to men and interventions addressing sequelae of childhood sexual abuse may be warranted.

Life history patterns, individual heterogeneity, and density dependence in breeding common goldeneyes of the northern boreal forest

Life history patterns and their associated tradeoffs influence population dynamics, as they determine how individuals allocate resources among competing demographic traits. Here we examined life history strategies in common goldeneyes Bucephala clangula (hereafter goldeneye), a cavity‐nesting sea duck, in the northern boreal forest of interior Alaska, USA. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to estimate adult survival, breeding probability, first‐year survival, and recruitment probability using a long‐term nest box study (1997–2010). We detected annual variation in adult survival, which varied from 0.74 ± 0.12 (SE) to 0.93 ± 0.06. In contrast, breeding probability remained relatively high and invariant (0.84 ± 0.11) and was positively related to individual nest success the year prior. Nonbreeding individuals in one year were more likely to remain a nonbreeder, than attempt to breed the following year. First‐year survival decreased with smaller residual duckling mass and larger brood sizes. Probability of recruitment into the breeding population conditioned on survival was constant during the study (0.96 ± 0.06), and did not vary among ages 2–5 yr‐old. Overall, goldeneyes exhibited high, but somewhat variable, adult survival, and high breeding and recruitment probabilities, which is consistent with observed patterns in bet‐hedging species that breed annually in high quality breeding environments, but whose reproductive output is often influenced by stochastic events. Demographic estimates from this study are among the first for goldeneyes within Alaska. Life history patterns are known to vary geographically, therefore, we recommend further examination of life history patterns within the distribution of goldeneyes.

Mark-recapture models identify imminent extinction of Yaqui catfish Ictalurus pricei in the United States

Data describing population abundance, survival, and recruitment informs species conservation status and conservation actions. Acquiring these data remains challenging for rare and endangered species, especially freshwater fish, with ~37% threatened or extinct. The absence of data risks inaction, ineptness and ignorance that can contaminate conservation decisions to the species detriment. The solution is obvious: ensure credible data underpin species conservation. We focus on Yaqui catfish (Ictalurus pricei), an endangered, freshwater endemic to the Sonoran desert (Arizona, US and Sonora, Mexico). Our method incorporates mark-recapture data, coupled with hierarchical Bayesian state-space formulations of the Cormack-Jolly Seber models and Jolly-Seber models, to quantify species growth, survival probability, recruitment probability, abundance and trends for the US population. Yaqui catfish growth matched other Ictalurid species. Population recruitment is essentially zero (<0.01%) and annual survival high (>70–75%). Overall, the US Yaqui catfish population declined by 15% per year (λ=0.85). Remaining catfish represent remnants of stocked progeny from the 1990s (age of 19–21years), with US extinction predicted by 2018. A pulse of conservation activity followed by 20years of unsuccessful management resulted in the US population collapsing while habitat degradation and introgression from non-native fish threaten most populations in Mexico. Now approaching global extinction, saving Yaqui catfish requires collaboration between Mexican and US biologists to establish species status in Mexico, hatchery cultivation, habitat protection, habitat restoration and appropriate monitoring. Work herein springboards recent conservation efforts to secure this species.

Influence of temporal variation and seasonality on population dynamics of three sympatric rodents

Population dynamics of small mammals can be strongly influenced by seasonality. Long-term studies are important in detecting population size variation in small mammals, and understanding the causes of that variation. We performed a six-year study to investigate fluctuations in population parameters (reproduction, recruitment, survival rates, abundance, and capture probability) of three rodent species at the core of the Brazilian cerrado domain. Small mammals were captured monthly within two grids during six years at Aguas Emendadas Ecological Station in the Federal District, Brazil. Model selection for explaining variation in rodent survival rates and capture probability was performed using MARK (Robust Design model). All three rodent species showed highest proportion of reproductive females in wet seasons. Calomys tener and T. lasiotis are seasonal and population size is higher in dry than in wet seasons, while the most abundant N. lasiurus had no seasonal patterns. Annual variation in abundance was also important for these three species. Thalpomys lasiotis declined over the six years of the study. These species showed highest survival estimates in the dry season. Our results reinforce the idea that not only climatic (rainfall and drought) events are linked to population numbers, survival rates, and capturability, but also that the life histories of the species can play an important role in their responses to variations in rainfall-productivity events.

Microcirculation improvement after short-term infusion of vasopressin in septic shock is dependent on noradrenaline

OBJECTIVES:To assess the impact of vasopressin on the microcirculation and to develop a predictive model to estimate the probability of microcirculatory recruitment in patients with septic shock.METHODS:This prospective interventional study included patients with septic shock receiving noradrenaline for less than 48 hours. We infused vasopressin at 0.04 U/min for one hour. Hemodynamic measurements, including sidestream dark-field imaging, were obtained immediately before vasopressin infusion, 1 hour after vasopressin infusion and 1 hour after vasopressin withdrawal. We defined patients with more than a 10% increase in total vascular density and perfused vascular density as responders. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02053675.RESULTS:Eighteen patients were included, and nine (50%) showed improved microcirculation after infusion of vasopressin. The noradrenaline dose was significantly reduced after vasopressin (p=0.001) and was higher both at baseline and during vasopressin infusion in the responders than in the non-responders. The strongest predictor for a favorable microcirculatory response was the dose of noradrenaline at baseline (OR=4.5; 95% CI: 1.2-17.0; p=0.027). For patients using a noradrenaline dose higher than 0.38 mcg/kg/min, the probability that microcirculatory perfusion would be improved with vasopressin was 53% (sensitivity 78%, specificity 77%).CONCLUSIONS:In patients with septic shock for no longer than 48 h, administration of vasopressin is likely to result in an improvement in microcirculation when the baseline noradrenaline dose is higher than 0.38 mcg/kg/min.

The strength of the association between heterozygosity and probability of interannual local recruitment increases with environmental harshness in blue tits.

The extent of inbreeding depression and the magnitude of heterozygosity–fitness correlations (HFC) have been suggested to depend on the environmental context in which they are assayed, but little evidence is available for wild populations. We combine extensive molecular and capture–mark–recapture data from a blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) population to (1) analyze the relationship between heterozygosity and probability of interannual adult local recruitment and (2) test whether environmental stress imposed by physiologically suboptimal temperatures and rainfall influence the magnitude of HFC. To address these questions, we used two different arrays of microsatellite markers: 14 loci classified as neutral and 12 loci classified as putatively functional. We found significant relationships between heterozygosity and probability of interannual local recruitment that were most likely explained by variation in genomewide heterozygosity. The strength of the association between heterozygosity and probability of interannual local recruitment was positively associated with annual accumulated precipitation. Annual mean heterozygosity increased over time, which may have resulted from an overall positive selection on heterozygosity over the course of the study period. Finally, neutral and putatively functional loci showed similar trends, but the former had stronger effect sizes and seemed to better reflect genomewide heterozygosity. Overall, our results show that HFC can be context dependent, emphasizing the need to consider the role of environmental heterogeneity as a key factor when exploring the consequences of individual genetic diversity on fitness in natural populations.

Juvenile survival, recruitment, population size, and effects of avian pox virus in Laysan Albatross (Phoebastria immutabilis) on Oahu, Hawaii, USA

ABSTRACT Understanding population dynamics and determining conservation priorities in long-lived species with delayed breeding often is hampered by lack of information about younger age classes. Obtaining accurate estimates of juvenile survival and recruitment can be difficult because young individuals are infrequently observed. We used mark–recapture models to estimate age-specific survival, recruitment, population size, and encounter probability of Laysan Albatrosses (Phoebastria immutabilis) using a 14-yr dataset from Oahu, Hawaii, USA. We also measured the long-term effect of avian pox virus (Poxvirus avium) on the survival and recruitment of albatrosses infected as nestlings. Survival of juvenile albatrosses during the first year after fledging was 0.757 ± 0.042. We were able to estimate juvenile survival, the first such estimate in any long-lived seabird, because our high search effort revealed that some birds began visiting the natal colony at the age of 1 yr. The survival of prebreeders increased ...

Recruitment and zonation in a sub-Antarctic rocky intertidal community

This study presents for the first time the factors governing the recruitment in a rocky intertidal community of the Beagle Channel, Tierra del Fuego (54°51′S 68°29′W), Argentina. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of grazers and predators, free substrate availability and crustose coralline algae on the recruitment of the main sessile components of the intertidal:Notochthamalus scabrosus, Notobalanus flosculus, Mytilus chilensis, Perumytilus purpuratusandAulacomya atraat three intertidal levels. For barnacles, the probability of recruitment was higher with grazers, while the contrary was observed for bivalves. The number ofN. flosculusrecruits was higher with increased substrate availability, whileN. scabrosusrecruited more with reduced free substrate in the first sampling. Mussel recruitment was higher with reduced free substrate. The highest probability of recruitment ofN. scabrosuswas observed at the upper level. Notably, this probability and the recruits per plot were higher at the mid level under uncaged-ORP treatment than expected for the mid level. The probability of bivalve andN. flosculusrecruitment was higher at upper and lower levels, respectively. At the lower level, barnacle recruitment was higher on bare rock than on crustose coralline algae. Our results suggest that grazers increase the probability of barnacle recruitment, while the presence of sessile organisms enhances the density of mussel recruits. Almost no recruitment of bivalves was observed in ORPs over one year, showing that the secondary succession is slow in this environment.

Behaviour during handling predicts male natal dispersal distances in an establishing reintroduced hihi (Notiomystis cincta) population

AbstractNatal dispersal is a complex behaviour influenced by multiple factors that are often sex‐specific and density‐dependent. Reintroduced populations are typically low in density in the initial years of establishment; hence, understanding natal dispersal patterns in this context is a critical component of reintroduction biology. Natal dispersal is a key behaviour that influences both the probability of recruitment, and simultaneously dictates the spatial configuration of the reintroduced population as it establishes. Here, we examine natal dispersal in a reintroduced population of an endangered New Zealand forest passerine, the hihi, Notiomystis cincta, in the first 3 years after reintroduction to a large, mature forest reserve. We examined (1) differences between the sexes, and (2) the relationship between temperament and natal dispersal distances (NDD) in locally bred hihi over this time period. We found NDD varied widely in both sexes, with mean NDD significantly higher in males than females. There was a sex‐specific effect of temperament, with males that distress‐called during handling dispersing further than those that did not. Our results show that while clusters of individuals have established across the reserve due to conspecific attraction, there is movement between these clusters, primarily a consequence of dispersal of males of a distinct temperament. Continuing to monitor natal dispersal patterns as populations establish will provide further insights into the role of dispersal in shaping establishment patterns in reintroduced populations.

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long‐lived amphibian

Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long-lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long-lived amphibian, the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture-recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context-dependent variation in demographic processes.

Elevated corticosterone during egg production elicits increased maternal investment and promotes nestling growth in a wild songbird

Glucocorticoids circulating in breeding birds during egg production accumulate within eggs, and may provide a potent form of maternal effect on offspring phenotype. However, whether these steroids affect offspring development remains unclear. Here, we employed a non-invasive technique that experimentally elevated the maternal transfer of corticosterone to eggs in a wild population of house wrens. Feeding corticosterone-injected mealworms to free-living females prior to and during egg production increased the number of eggs that females produced and increased corticosterone concentrations in egg yolks. This treatment also resulted in an increase in the amount of yolk allocated to eggs. Offspring hatching from these eggs begged for food at a higher rate than control offspring and eventually attained increased prefledging body condition, a trait predictive of their probability of recruitment as breeding adults in the study population. Our results indicate that an increase in maternal glucocorticoids within the physiological range can enhance maternal investment and offspring development.

Simulation‐based assessment of dynamicN‐mixture models in the presence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity

SummaryEstimating survival and recruitment over large spatial scales is extremely challenging because it requires ‘expensive’ demographic data from marked animals. DynamicN‐mixture models (Dail &amp; Madsen) yield estimates of abundance, apparent survival, recruitment and detection probability from simple counts replicated in space and time, as frequently collected in monitoring programmes all over the world. However, the vital rates are assumed to be density‐independent and constant over time, arguably unrealistic assumptions in many situations.We evaluated the performance of the traditional dynamicN‐mixture model from simulated data generated with density dependence and environmental stochasticity in the vital rates. We then developed a series of more advanced models that take density‐dependent vital rates and environmental stochasticity into account and assessed whether these models provide accurate estimates of vital rates, strength of density dependence and levels of environmental stochasticity.We found that the traditional Dail–Madsen model produced accurate estimates of abundances and vital rates when the assumptions were met, but not when vital rates were subject to density dependence and environmental stochasticity.Accurate parameter estimates were generally obtained when the data generation matched the data analysis model, but accuracy was substantially reduced otherwise. Interestingly, accurate estimates of abundance and detection were obtained from all models, regardless of the data generation model. Shorter time series from more sites yielded estimates of similar accuracy as longer series from fewer sites.The new dynamicN‐mixture models represent a promising basis for developing integrated population models that combine data from different sources to get insights into population dynamics of species over large areas.

Climate, demography and lek stability in an Amazonian bird.

Lekking is a rare, but iconic mating system where polygynous males aggregate and perform group displays to attract females. Existing theory postulates that demographic and environmental stability are required for lekking to be an evolutionarily viable reproductive strategy. However, we lack empirical tests for the hypotheses that lek stability is facilitated by age-specific variation in demographic rates, and by predictable, abundant resources. To address this knowledge gap, we use multistate models to examine how two demographic elements of lek stability-male survival and recruitment-vary with age, social status and phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a Neotropical frugivorous bird, the wire-tailed manakin (Pipra filicauda). Our results show that demographic and environmental conditions were related to lek stability in the Ecuadorean Amazon. Apparent annual survival probability of territorial males was higher than that of non-territorial floaters, and recruitment probability increased as males progressed in an age-graded queue. Moreover, annual survival of territorial males and body condition of both floaters and territory holders were higher following years with El Niño conditions, associated with reduced rainfall and probably higher fruit production in the northern Neotropics, and lower after years with wet, La Niña conditions that predominated our study. Recruitment probabilities varied annually, independent of ENSO phase, and increased over our study period, but the annual mean number of territorial males per lek declined. Our results provide empirical support for hypothesized demographic and environmental drivers of lek dynamics. This study also suggests that climate-mediated changes in resource availability can affect demography and subsequent lek stability in a relatively buffered, lowland rainforest.

Early constraints in sexual dimorphism: survival benefits of feminized phenotypes.

Sexual dimorphism (SD) has evolved in response to selection pressures that differ between sexes. Since such pressures change across an individual's life, SD may vary within age classes. Yet, little is known about how selection on early phenotypes may drive the final SD observed in adults. In many dimorphic species, juveniles resemble adult females rather than adult males, meaning that out of the selective pressures established by sexual selection feminized phenotypes may be adaptive. If true, fitness benefits of early female-like phenotypes may constrain the expression of male phenotypes in adulthood. Using the common kestrel Falco tinnunculus as a study model, we evaluated the fitness advantages of expressing more feminized phenotypes at youth. Although more similar to adult females than to adult males, common kestrel fledglings are still sexually dimorphic in size and coloration. Integrating morphological and chromatic variables, we analysed the phenotypic divergence between sexes as a measure of how much each individual looks like the sex to which it belongs (phenotypic sexual resemblance, PSR). We then tested the fitness benefits associated with PSR by means of the probability of recruitment in the population. We found a significant interaction between PSR and sex, showing that in both sexes more feminized phenotypes recruited more into the population than less feminized phenotypes. Moreover, males showed lower PSR than females and a higher proportion of incorrect sex classifications. These findings suggest that the mechanisms in males devoted to resembling female phenotypes in youth, due to a trend to increase fitness through more feminized phenotypes, may provide a mechanism to constrain the SD in adulthood.

Extreme climate events and individual heterogeneity shape life‐history traits and population dynamics

Extreme climatic conditions and their ecological impacts are currently emerging as critical features of climate change. We studied extreme sea ice condition (ESIC) and found it impacts both life‐history traits and population dynamics of an Antarctic seabird well beyond ordinary variability.The Southern Fulmar (Fulmarus glacialoides) is an ice‐dependent seabird, and individuals forage near the ice edge. During an extreme unfavorable year (when sea ice area is reduced and distance between ice edge and colony is high), observed foraging trips were greater in distance and duration. As a result, adults brought less food to their chicks, which fledged in the poorest body condition. During such unfavorable years, breeding success was extremely low and population growth rate (λ) was greatly reduced. The opposite pattern occurred during extreme favorable years.Previous breeding status had a strong influence on life‐history traits and population dynamics, and their responses to extreme conditions. Successful breeders had a higher chance of breeding and raising their chick successfully during the following breeding season as compared to other breeding stages, regardless of environmental conditions. Consequently, they coped better with unfavorable ESIC. The effect of change in successful breeder vital rates on λ was greater than for other stages' vital rates, except for pre‐breeder recruitment probabilities, which most affected λ.For environments characterized by ordinary sea ice conditions, interindividual differences were more likely to persist over the life of individuals and randomness in individual pathways was low, suggesting individual heterogeneity in vital rates arising from innate or acquired phenotypic traits. Additionally, unfavorable ESIC tended to exacerbate individual differences in intrinsic quality, expressed through differences in reproductive status.We discuss the strong effects of ESIC on Southern Fulmar life‐history traits in an evolutionary context. ESICs strongly affect fitness components and act as potentially important agents of natural selection of life histories related to intrinsic quality and intermittent breeding. In addition, recruitment is a highly plastic trait that, if heritable, could have a critical role in evolution of life histories. Finally, we find that changes in the frequency of extreme events may strongly impact persistence of Southern Fulmar populations.

Do key dimensions of seed and seedling functional trait variation capture variation in recruitment probability?

Seedling recruitment is a critical driver of population dynamics and community assembly, yet we know little about functional traits that define different recruitment strategies. For the first time, we examined whether trait relatedness across germination and seedling stages allows the identification of general recruitment strategies which share core functional attributes and also correspond to recruitment outcomes in applied settings. We measured six seed and eight seedling traits (lab- and field-collected, respectively) for 47 varieties of dryland grasses and used principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis to identify major dimensions of trait variation and to isolate trait-based recruitment groups, respectively. PCA highlighted some links between seed and seedling traits, suggesting that relative growth rate and root elongation rate are simultaneously but independently associated with seed mass and initial root mass (first axis), and with leaf dry matter content, specific leaf area, coleoptile tissue density and germination rate (second axis). Third and fourth axes captured separate tradeoffs between hydrothermal time and base water potential for germination, and between specific root length and root mass ratio, respectively. Cluster analysis separated six recruitment types along dimensions of germination and growth rates, but classifications did not correspond to patterns of germination, emergence or recruitment in the field under either of two watering treatments. Thus, while we have begun to identify major threads of functional variation across seed and seedling stages, our understanding of how this variation influences demographic processes-particularly germination and emergence-remains a key gap in functional ecology.