Recovery Timescale Research Articles

Using magnetic dynamics to measure the spin gap in a candidate Kitaev material

Spin-orbit entangled materials have attracted widespread interest due to the novel magnetic phenomena arising from the interplay between spin-orbit coupling and electronic correlations. However, the intricate nature of spin interactions within Kiteav materials complicates the precise measurement of low-energy spin excitations. Using Na2Co2TeO6 as an example, we study these low-energy spin excitations using the time-resolved resonant elastic x-ray scattering (tr-REXS). Our observations unveil remarkably slow spin dynamics at the magnetic peak, whose recovery timescale is several nanoseconds. This timescale aligns with the extrapolated spin gap of ~1 μeV, obtained by density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) simulations in the thermodynamic limit. The consistency demonstrates the efficacy of tr-REXS in discerning low-energy spin gaps inaccessible to conventional spectroscopic techniques.

A multiband study of pulsar glitches with Fermi-LAT and Parkes

ABSTRACT Pulsar glitch is a phenomenon characterized by abrupt changes in the spin period over less than a minute. We present a comprehensive analysis of glitches in four gamma-ray pulsars by combining the timing observation data from Fermi-Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT) and Parkes 64 m radio telescope. The timing data of five pulsars, namely PSRs J1028–5819, J1420–6048, J1509–5850, J1709–4429 (B1706–44), and J1718–3825, are examined over 14 yr of observations for each. A total of 12 glitches are identified in four pulsars, including a previously unreported glitch. That is, a new small glitch is identified for PSR J1718–3825 in MJD $\sim$ 59121(8), with a fractional glitch size of $\Delta \nu /\nu \sim 1.9(2) \times 10^{-9}$. For PSR J1420–6048, our investigation confirms the presence of two linear recovery terms during the evolution of $\dot{\nu }$ following glitches 4, 6, and 8. Moreover, an exponential recovery process was identified after glitch 8, with a recovery fraction (Q) of $Q = 0.0131(5)$ and a corresponding time-scale of $\tau _{\rm d} = 100(6)$ d. Regarding the fourth glitch of PSR J1709–4429, our analysis reveals the presence of two exponential recovery terms with degree of recovery and decay time-scales Q1 = 0.0104(5), $\tau _{\rm d1}=72(4)$ d, and Q2 = 0.006(1), $\tau _{\rm d2}=4.2(6)$ d, respectively. For the remaining previously reported glitches, we also refine the glitch epochs and recovery process through precise fitting of the timing data. We discuss how multiband data of glitches can help better characterize the glitch recoveries and constrain the underlying physics of glitch events. Our findings demonstrate that the accumulation of observational data reveals the rich complexity of the glitch phenomenon, aiding in the search for a well-established interpretation.

Recovery of coronal dimmings

Context. Coronal dimmings are regions of reduced emission in the lower corona observed in the wake of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), representing their footprints. Studying the lifetime evolution of coronal dimmings helps us to better understand the recovery and replenishment of the corona after large-scale eruptions. Aims. We study the recovery of dimmings on different spatial scales to enhance our understanding of the replenishment and dynamics of the corona after CMEs. Methods. In order to investigate the long-term evolution of coronal dimming and its recovery, we propose two approaches that focus on both the global and the local evolution of dimming regions: the fixed mask approach and the pixel boxes approach. We present four case studies (September 6, 2011; March 7, 2012; June 14, 2012; and March 8, 2019) in which a coronal dimming is associated with a flare/CME eruption. We analyzed each event with the same methodology, using extreme-ultraviolet filtergrams from the Solar Dynamics Observatory’s Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) and Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory’s Extreme UltraViolet Imager (STEREO/EUVI) instruments. We identified the dimming region by image segmentation, then restricted the analysis to a specific portion of the dimming and tracked the time evolution of the dimming brightness and area. In addition, we study the behavior of small subregions inside the dimming area, of about 3 × 3 pixels, to compare the recovery in different regions of the dimming. Results. Three out of the four cases show a complete recovery 24 hours after the flare/CME eruption. The primary recovery mechanism identified in the observations is the expansion of coronal loops into the dimming region. The recovery of the brightness follows a two-step trend, with a steeper and quicker segment followed by a slower one. In addition, some parts of the dimming, which may be core dimmings, are still present at the end of the analysis time and do not recover within 3 days, whereas the peripheral regions (secondary dimmings) show a full recovery. Conclusions. The high temporal and spatial resolution of SDO/AIA observations combined with multi-view data of the STEREO/EUV instrument reveal high-situated coronal loops expanding after CME eruptions, which cover dimming regions and gradually increase their intensity. Our developed approaches enable the analysis of dimmings alongside these bright structures, revealing different timescales of recovery for core and secondary or twin dimming regions. Combined with magnetic field modeling, these methods lay the foundation for further systematic analysis of dimming recovery and enhance the knowledge gained from already-analyzed events.

Centennial‐Scale Recovery of the North Atlantic Summer Storm Track Weakening

AbstractThe North Atlantic storm track plays a critical role in setting the regional weather and climate over Western Europe. In response to anthropogenic emissions, the summer North Atlantic storm track has weakened in recent decades and is projected to continue weakening by the end of this century. In light of growing efforts to mitigate climate change, it is crucial to assess how reversible the CO2‐induced storm track weakening is. Here, I show that under CO2 removal scenarios, the recovery timescale of the storm track is more than double its weakening period. It is found that due to a prolonged high‐latitude warming, postponing the execution of mitigation policies beyond doubling of CO2 concentrations would lead to a centennial‐scale recovery of the storms. Given the impacts of weakening summer storms on weather and extreme events, the delayed recovery of the storms might have broader regional consequences for Western Europe.

Satellite measurement of forest disturbance, recovery and deposit distribution following explosive volcanic eruptions

The characteristics and extent of forest damage, and the subsequent patterns of recovery, reflect the intensity of an explosive volcanic eruption and have the potential to be a novel proxy for eruption magnitude and impact. Using satellite measurements of vegetation damage and recovery patterns, following the 2015 explosive eruption of Calbuco, Chile, we assess the impact on surrounding temperate forests and how areas impacted by different deposit types recover post-eruption. The Calbuco eruption resulted in tephra deposition over hundreds of square kilometres, pyroclastic flows extending 6 km and lahars extending 15 km. We explore NDVI derived from optical imagery (June 2013–May 2023) as well as radar backscatter and phase coherence (October 2014–June 2023) through time series analysis, clustering and estimation of recovery timescales to find patterns in forest disturbance and recovery. We find that forest damage and recovery correspond primarily with deposit type, thickness and dispersal directions. The thickest tephra deposits (> 40 cm) correlate with the most vegetation loss, so our vegetation impact maps allow us to refine the spatial mapping of tephra fall-deposit isopachs to give a revised eruption volume of 0.28 km3. Vegetation recovery rates relate to initial impact type and intensity, but also local topography, aspect and altitude. Our results demonstrate a novel application of optical and radar satellite remote sensing to determine eruption extents and magnitudes through vegetation disturbance. We show that measuring vegetation disturbance, particularly in remote and densely vegetated environments, can help refine field-based analyses in inaccessible or intensely damaged zones.

Assessment of Long-Term Streamflow Response to Flash Drought in the São Francisco River Basin over the Last Three Decades (1991–2020)

Flash droughts, characterized by a rapid onset and severe intensity, pose a serious threat to water resource management. Extensive research has indicated that drought has lagged impacts on streamflow. Nevertheless, the hydrometeorological conditions by which streamflow dynamics respond to drought within the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) remain ambiguous. To bridge this gap, we conducted a study on long-term streamflow responses to flash drought in the SFRB from 1991 to 2020, combining the Standardized Antecedent Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SAPEI) and quantile streamflow with a trend analysis. This study employed the SAPEI, a daily drought index, to identify flash droughts and assess the response of streamflow to the identified events across the SFRB. Our findings reveal insights into the direct response of streamflow to flash drought conditions, stimulated by the application of the SAPEI for analysis of flash drought events. The interannual flash droughts fluctuated over the years, with the middle part of the SFRB experiencing frequent, longer flash droughts, while the south part encountered shorter but less frequent events. About 55% of the study area is trended towards drying conditions. A comparative analysis of the SAPEI and streamflow identified a synchronized response to the onset of flash drought events, but the recovery timescale for the SAPEI and streamflow varied among the events. This study enhances understanding of the flash-drought–streamflow relationship in the SFRB and provides theoretical support for addressing drought risks under climate change.

Speeding up the recovery of coastal habitats through management interventions that address constraints on dispersal and recruitment.

Plans for habitat restoration will benefit from predictions of timescales for recovery. Theoretical models have been a powerful tool for informing practical guidelines in planning marine protected areas, suggesting restoration planning could also benefit from a theoretical framework. We developed a model that can predict recovery times following restoration action, under dispersal, recruitment and connectivity constraints. We apply the model to a case study of seagrass restoration and find recovery times following restoration action can vary greatly, from <1 to >20 years. The model also shows how recovery can be accelerated when restoration actions are matched to the constraints on recovery. For example, spreading of propagules can be used when connectivity is the critical restriction. The recovery constraints we articulated mathematically also apply to the restoration of coral reefs, mangroves, saltmarsh, shellfish reefs and macroalgal forests, so our model provides a general framework for choosing restoration actions that accelerate coastal habitat recovery.

Lithium isotopic evidence for enhanced reverse weathering during the Early Triassic warm period

Elevated temperatures persisted for an anomalously protracted interval following pulsed volcanic carbon release associated with the end-Permian mass extinction, deviating from the expected timescale of climate recovery following a carbon injection event. Here, we present evidence for enhanced reverse weathering-a CO2 source-following the end-Permian mass extinction based on the lithium isotopic composition of marine shales and cherts. We find that the average lithium isotopic composition of Lower Triassic marine shales is significantly elevated relative to that of all other previously measured Phanerozoic marine shales. Notably, the record generated here conflicts with carbonate-based interpretations of the lithium isotopic composition of Early Triassic seawater, forcing a re-evaluation of the existing framework used to interpret lithium isotopes in sedimentary archives. Using a stochastic forward lithium cycle model, we demonstrate that elevated reverse weathering is required to reproduce the lithium isotopic values and trends observed in Lower Triassic marine shales and cherts. Collectively, this work provides direct geochemical evidence for enhanced reverse weathering in the aftermath of Earth's most severe mass extinction.

Phase synchronization between culture and climate forcing.

Over the history of humankind, cultural innovations have helped improve survival and adaptation to environmental stress. This has led to an overall increase in human population size, which in turn further contributed to cumulative cultural learning. During the Anthropocene, or arguably even earlier, this positive sociodemographic feedback has caused a strong decline in important resources that, coupled with projected future transgression of planetary boundaries, may potentially reverse the long-term trend in population growth. Here, we present a simple consumer/resource model that captures the coupled dynamics of stochastic cultural learning and transmission, population growth and resource depletion in a changing environment. The idealized stochastic mathematical model simulates boom/bust cycles between low-population subsistence, high-density resource exploitation and subsequent population decline. For slow resource recovery time scales and in the absence of climate forcing, the model predicts a long-term global population collapse. Including a simplified periodic climate forcing, we find that cultural innovation and population growth can couple with climatic forcing via nonlinear phase synchronization. We discuss the relevance of this finding in the context of cultural innovation, the anthropological record and long-term future resilience of our own predatory species.

Suspended‐sediment response to wildfire and a major post‐fire flood on the Colorado Front Range

AbstractWildfires, and the sediment‐rich floods that commonly follow, increasingly threaten riverine ecosystems and water infrastructure. Suspended sediment exported throughout fire–flood sequences poses particular risks due to rapid transit times and direct impacts on water quality. However, opportunities to measure suspended‐sediment transport during and after post‐fire floods, and therefore to illuminate what controls the magnitude and timing of suspended‐sediment export from burned, flooded watersheds, are rare. A ~ 100‐year flood that occurred one year into a three‐year study monitoring suspended‐sediment response to wildfire in the Colorado Front Range provides a unique opportunity to (1) quantify how suspended‐sediment concentrations and loads change throughout a fire–flood sequence, and (2) infer what controls the timescale over which suspended‐sediment dynamics recover toward pre‐fire conditions. We find that suspended‐sediment concentrations (SSCs) during summer storms declined monotonically to background conditions over 3 years. Snowmelt SSCs peaked in the second year before declining to background levels. Sediment load calculations reveal that the flood exported ~35 years' worth of suspended sediment and triggered ~1.5 years of elevated SSCs and sediment loads. SSCs and sediment loads indicate a fairly short post‐fire recovery timescale of about 3 years. We suggest that the flood accelerated recovery by (1) exporting much of the available suspended sediment from this supply‐limited landscape and (2) facilitating the export of remaining sediment by making it more accessible to subsequent flows. Our results indicate that large post‐wildfire floods, though representing major geomorphic disturbances, may hasten post‐fire suspended‐sediment recovery to background conditions, at least in supply‐limited regions.

The uncertain future of mountaintop-removal-mined landscapes 1: How mining changes erosion processes and variables

Surface mining may be humanity's most tangible impact on Earth's surface and will become more prevalent as the energy transition progresses. Prediction of post-mining landscape change can help mitigate environmental damage, but requires understanding how mining changes geomorphic processes and variables. Here we investigate surface mining's complex influence on surface processes in a case study of mountaintop removal/valley fill (MTR/VF) coal mining in the Appalachian Coalfields, USA. The future of MTR/VF landscapes is unclear because mining's effects on geomorphic processes are poorly understood. We use geospatial analysis—leveraging the existence of pre- and post-MTR/VF elevation models—and synthesis of literature to ask how MTR/VF alters topography, hydrology, and land-surface erodibility and how these changes could be incorporated into numerical models of post-MTR/VF landscape evolution.MTR/VF reduces slope and area–slope product, and rearranges drainage divides. Creation of closed depressions alters flow routing and casts doubt on the utility of models that assume steady flow. MTR/VF creates two contrasting hydrologic domains, one in which overland flow is generated efficiently due to a lack of infiltration capacity, and one in which waste rock deposits act as extensive subsurface reservoirs. This dichotomy creates localized hotspots of overland flow and erosion. Loss of forest cover probably reduces cohesion in near-surface soils for at least the timescale of vegetation recovery, while waste rock fills and minesoils also likely experience reduced erosion resistance. Our analysis suggests three necessary ingredients for numerical modeling of post-MTR/VF landscape change: 1) accurate routing and accumulation of unsteady overland flow and accompanying sediment across low-gradient, depression-rich, engineered landscapes, 2) separation of the landscape into cut, filled, and unmined regions, and 3) incorporation of vegetation recovery trajectories. Improved modeling of post-mining landscape evolution will mitigate environmental degradation from past mining and reduce the impacts of future mining that supports the energy transition.

Can we use recovery timescales to define Good Environmental Status?

Ecosystem-based management is mandated by international legislation, including the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) in the EU. This introduces a requirement for marine environments to achieve “Good Environmental Status” or GES, implying that the ecosystem is in a healthy and biodiverse state which does not limit the management options of future generations. Indicators of GES typically refer to the current or past state; however, an alternative approach that defines GES in terms of being able to recover to the appropriate reference unperturbed state within 30 years if human activities cease has been suggested. In this study we evaluate this “longest recovery timescales” (LRT) approach using the StrathE2E2 “big picture” model, an end-to-end ecosystem model designed to evaluate both top-down and bottom-up effects at an ecosystem level. We ask whether the approach is enough to prevent severe depletion as well as ensuring recovery at some future time. We also ask whether implementation is practical given uncertainties in defining appropriate baselines for recovery, defining what recovery looks like relative to this baseline, and taking account of natural variability. We find that the main issues with implementation of LRT are a) defining the appropriate baseline for recovery in a changing environment, and b) ensuring that there is stakeholder acceptance of any recommended actions in the event that they differ substantially from current policy. Subject to these two issues, we conclude that the LRT method is a valuable addition to management in support of achieving GES alongside existing methods that focus on current or near-future states.

Results of 23 yr of Pulsar Timing of PSR J1453-6413

In this paper, we presented the 23.3 yr of pulsar timing results of PSR J1456−6413 based on the observations of Parkes 64 m radio telescope. We detected two new glitches at MJD 57093(3) and 59060(12) and confirmed its first glitch at MJD 54554(10). The relative sizes (Δν/ν) of these two new glitches are 0.9 × 10−9 and 1.16 × 10−9, respectively. Using the “Cholesky” timing analysis method, we have determined its position, proper motion, and two-dimensional transverse velocities from the data segments before and after the second glitch, respectively. Furthermore, we detected exponential recovery behavior after the first glitch, with a recovery timescale of approximately 200 days and a corresponding exponential recovery factor Q of approximately 0.15(2), while no exponential recovery was detected for the other two glitches. More interestingly, we found that the leading component of the integral pulse profile after the second glitch became stronger, while the main component became weaker. Our results will expand the sample of pulsars with magnetosphere fluctuation triggered by the glitch event.

Defining Renewable Groundwater Use and Its Relevance to Sustainable Groundwater Management

AbstractGroundwater systems are commonly defined as renewable or non‐renewable based on natural fluxes of recharge or on estimates of aquifer storage and groundwater residence time. However, we show here that the principle of capture (i.e., how recharge and discharge change due to pumping) challenges simple definitions so that a groundwater system cannot be renewable or non‐renewable in and of itself, but only with reference to how the groundwater is being used. We develop and propose more hydraulically informed definitions for flux‐renewable and storage‐renewable groundwater use, and a combined definition that encompasses both the flux‐based and storage‐based perspectives such that: renewable groundwater use allows for dynamically stable re‐equilibrium of groundwater levels and quality on human timescales. Further, we show how a matrix of combinations of (a) the ratio of pumping rate to the maximum rate of capture along with (b) the response or recovery timescales implicit in this definition, leads to a useful four‐quadrant framework for characterizing groundwater use, illustrated using case studies from aquifers around the world. Renewable groundwater use may inform pathways to groundwater sustainability, which encompasses a broader set of dimensions (e.g., socio‐political, economic, ecological and cultural) beyond the scope of groundwater science. We propose that separating physically robust definitions of renewable groundwater use from the inherently value‐based language of sustainability, can help bring much needed clarity to wider discussions about sustainable groundwater management strategies, and the role of groundwater science and scientists in such endeavors.

Increased nonstationarity of stormflow threshold behaviors in a forested watershed due to abrupt earthquake disturbance

Abstract. Extreme earthquake disturbances to the vegetation of local and regional landscapes could swiftly impair the former hydrologic function, significantly increasing the challenge of predicting threshold behaviors of rainfall–runoff processes as well as the hydrologic system's complexity over time. It is still unclear how alternating catchment hydrologic behaviors under an ongoing large earthquake disruption are mediated by long-term interactions between landslides and vegetation evolution. In a well-known watershed affected by the Wenchuan earthquake, the nonlinear hydrologic behavior is examined using two thresholds with intervening linear segments. A lower rising threshold (THr) value (210.48 mm) observed in post-earthquake local landslide regions exhibited a faster stormflow response rate than that in undisturbed forest and grassland–shrubland regions, easily triggering huge flash-flood disasters. Additionally, an integrated response metric pair (integrated watershed average generation threshold THg−IWA and rising threshold THr−IWA) with areas of disparate land use, ecology, and physiography was proposed and efficiently applied to identify emergent catchment hydrologic behaviors. The interannual variation in the two integrated hydrologic thresholds before and following the earthquake was assessed to detect the temporal nonstationarity in hydrologic extremes and nonlinear runoff response. The year 2011 was an important turning point along the hydrologic disturbance–recovery timescale following the earthquake, as post-earthquake landslide evolution reached a state of extreme heterogeneity in space. At that time, the THr−IWA value decreased by ∼ 9 mm compared with the pre-earthquake level. This is closely related to the fast expansion of landslides, leading to a larger extension of variable source area from the channel to neighboring hillslopes, and faster subsurface stormflow, contributing to flash floods. Finally, we present a conceptual model interpreting how the short- and long-term interactions between earthquake-induced landslides and vegetation affect flood hydrographs at event timescale that generated an increased nonstationary hydrologic behavior. This study expands our current knowledge of threshold-based hydrologic and nonstationary stormflow behaviors in response to abrupt earthquake disturbance for the prediction of future flood regimes.

EFFECTS OF SHEAR HISTORY ON THE MECHANICAL, ELECTRICAL, AND MICROSTRUCTURAL PROPERTIES OF PARTICLE-REINFORCED RUBBER

ABSTRACT The extent and nature of networks of carbon black particles in rubber compounds play a key role in determining the mechanical hysteresis and conductivity of rubber goods. It is well known that in uncrosslinked compounds, such networks display transient and time-dependent behavior when subjected to steps or ramps in shear and temperature (often called flocculation). This study probes the observed structural recoveries of carbon black networks following various levels of imposed shear strain histories. It is demonstrated that the level of shear experienced by the compound immediately before vulcanization can have a dramatic effect on the final dynamic mechanical properties of the subsequently vulcanized materials. Significant reductions in Payne effect occur when the timescales of shear-induced structural recovery, determined from rheological experiments, exceed the kinetics of vulcanization. Electrical conductivity/resistivity is also affected, especially for compounds formulated in the electrical percolation transition region. Furthermore, the microstructure of carbon black networks is tracked at different extents of recovery by using transmission electron microscopy thin section analysis and atomic force microscopy methodologies for particle network microstructure quantification. Evidence is found that relates flocculation to the progressive relaxation of shear-induced anisotropy of the carbon black micro dispersion.

Grain size modulates volcanic ash retention on crop foliage and potential yield loss

Abstract. Ashfall from volcanic eruptions endangers crop production and food security while jeopardising agricultural livelihoods. As populations in the vicinity of volcanoes continue to grow, strategies to reduce volcanic risks to and impacts on crops are increasingly needed. Current models of crop vulnerability to ash are limited. They also rely solely on ash thickness (or loading) as the hazard intensity metric and fail to reproduce the complex interplay of other volcanic and non-volcanic factors that drive impact. Amongst these, ash retention on crop leaves affects photosynthesis and is ultimately responsible for widespread damage to crops. In this context, we carried out greenhouse experiments to assess how ash grain size, leaf pubescence, and humidity conditions at leaf surfaces influence the retention of ash (defined as the percentage of foliar cover coated with ash) in tomato and chilli pepper plants, two crop types commonly grown in volcanic regions. For a fixed ash mass load (∼570 g m−2), we found that ash retention decreases exponentially with increasing grain size and is enhanced when leaves are pubescent (such as in tomato plants) or when their surfaces are wet. Assuming that leaf area index (LAI) diminishes with ash retention in tomato and chilli pepper plants, we derived a new expression for predicting potential crop yield loss after an ashfall event. We suggest that the measurement of crop LAI in ash-affected areas may serve as an impact metric. Our study demonstrates that quantitative insights into crop vulnerability can be gained rapidly from controlled experiments. We advocate this approach to broaden our understanding of ash–plant interactions and to validate the use of remote sensing methods for assessing crop damage and recovery at various spatial and time scales after an eruption.

Improved extended-range prediction of persistent stratospheric perturbations using machine learning

Abstract. On average every 2 years, the stratospheric polar vortex exhibits extreme perturbations known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). The impact of these events is not limited to the stratosphere: but they can also influence the weather at the surface of the Earth for up to 3 months after their occurrence. This downward effect is observed in particular for SSW events with extended recovery timescales. This long-lasting stratospheric impact on surface weather can be leveraged to significantly improve the performance of weather forecasts on timescales of weeks to months. In this paper, we present a fully data-driven procedure to improve the performance of long-range forecasts of the stratosphere around SSW events with an extended recovery. We first use unsupervised machine learning algorithms to capture the spatio-temporal dynamics of SSWs and to create a continuous scale index measuring both the frequency and the strength of persistent stratospheric perturbations. We then uncover three-dimensional spatial patterns maximizing the correlation with positive index values, allowing us to assess when and where statistically significant early signals of SSW occurrence can be found. Finally, we propose two machine learning (ML) forecasting models as competitors for the state-of-the-art sub-seasonal European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical prediction model S2S (sub-seasonal to seasonal): while the numerical model performs better for lead times of up to 25 d, the ML models offer better predictive performance for greater lead times. We leverage our best-performing ML forecasting model to successfully post-process numerical ensemble forecasts and increase their performance by up to 20 %.

Time Scales of Ecosystem Impacts and Recovery Under Individual and Serial Invasions

The impacts of species invasions can subside over time as ecosystems ‘adapt’ and invaders decline or increase over time as additional species invade. The character and timescales of invasion impacts provide important insights into ecosystem dynamics and management. Yet long-term studies of invasion impacts remain rare and often confound invasive species impacts with coincident environmental change. One way to address this challenge is to ask: what ecological changes over time since invasion are recapitulated in ecosystems that span a range of conditions, are located in different regions, and were invaded in different decades? We synthesize many-decade time series across seven ecosystems to resolve shared changes in seven key ecosystem features following invasion by zebra mussels and subsequent invasion by quagga mussels. These two congeners are among the most widespread invasive species that re-engineer and increasingly co-invade freshwater ecosystems. Seven polymictic shallow lakes with long-term data sets reveal remarkably similar trends, with the strongest ecosystem impacts occurring within 5–10 years of zebra mussel invasion. Surprisingly, plankton communities then exhibited a partial, significant recovery. This recovery was absent, and impacts of initial invasion amplified, in four lakes where quagga mussels outcompeted zebra mussels and more completely depleted phytoplankton. Thus, we show that the ecosystem impacts of invasive species can subside over time but amplify with serial introductions of competing, even closely similar, taxa.

Model validation and dynamic simulation of post-combustion carbon dioxide separation with membranes

This work presents a finite-element numerical model for N2–O2–CO2 separation by hollow fiber membranes, scaled-up to treat the combustion gases coming for a medium-size coal-based power unit. The equation set has been expanded to include, beyond the membranes, also compressors and condensers. Two process layouts have been evaluated: one open loop allowing for high purification level, and a recirculating scheme yielding superior enrichments. The resulting simulation, valid from pilot to full-plant scale, takes then into account the interplay of both active and passive process units besides the active membranes, and is fully dynamic in definition and scope.The results show that the degree of purification is mainly affected by the enrichment-side pressure, while the CO2 concentration depends largely on the CO2:N2 selectivity. Even when this latter value is relatively low, a proper scale-up of series/parallel modules can overcome the limitation without exceeding 7–8 bar pressurisation. Simulating the impact of pressure and flow transients on the plant outflows, the recovery procedure and timescales are identified.