Risk Of Recidivism Research Articles

Trajectories of Change in Acute Dynamic Risk Ratings and Associated Risk for Recidivism in Paroled New Zealanders: A Joint Latent Class Modelling Approach

ObjectivesPrior studies indicate risk for recidivism declines with time spent in the community post-incarceration. The current study tested whether declines in risk scores occurred uniformly for all individuals in a community corrections sample or whether distinct groups could be identified on the basis of similar trajectories of change in acute risk and time to recidivism. We additionally tested whether accounting for group heterogeneity improved prospective prediction of recidivism.MethodsThis study used longitudinal, multiple-reassessment data gathered from 3,421 individuals supervised on parole in New Zealand (N = 92,104 assessments of theoretically dynamic risk factors conducted by community corrections supervision officers). We applied joint latent class modelling (JLCM) to model group trajectories of change in acute risk following re-entry while accounting for data missing due to recidivism (i.e., missing not at random). We compared accuracy of dynamic predictions based on the selected joint latent class model to an equivalent joint model with no latent class structure.ResultsWe identified four trajectory groups of acute dynamic risk. Groups were consistently estimated across a split sample. Trajectories differed in direction and degree of change but using the latent class structure did not improve discrimination when predicting recidivism.ConclusionsThere may be significant heterogeneity in how individuals’ assessed level of acute risk changes following re-entry, but determining risk for recidivism should not be based on probable group membership. JLCM revealed heterogeneity in early re-entry unlikely to be observed using traditional analytic approaches.

Therapeutic change in adolescents sexual offenders

IntroductionA number of studies have shown that the treatment of adolescents who have engaged in sexually abusive behavior (AESABs) reduces their risk of sexual recidivism. However, few studies have examined the internal processes leading to these results. ObjectiveThe purpose of our research was to determine whether the treatment of AESABs (n=43) influences the following factors related to sexual offending: deficient social skills, social isolation, ineffective coping strategies, and cognitive distortions. The impact of motivation for change and trauma symptoms on therapeutic progress was also examined. MethodPre/post-treatment analyses were completed. ResultsThe results of our pre/post-treatment analyses indicate significant changes in social isolation, coping strategies and cognitive distortions, and a significant reduction of trauma symptoms. Only social skills remained deficient. The data on motivation were not sufficient to establish whether motivation was linked to the progress of the subjects. DiscussionOur study highlights the importance of interventions targeting the acquisition of social skills in AESABs. Trauma is also an important factor to consider in the assessment of therapeutic progress, despite not being directly related to sexually abusive behaviour. The limits of the study highlight the importance of establishing an a priori program evaluation framework.

Using a reassessment framework to determine critical case management needs: DRAOR improves on LS/RNR’s predictive discrimination of short-term recidivism

ABSTRACT Two core tasks within community corrections are estimating recidivism risk and providing supportive case management to supervised clients. Recent studies demonstrated that regularly reassessing dynamic risk factors enhances the predictive accuracy of case management tools that identify immediate client needs. Using a large sample (N = 2076) of adults on parole in an Australian jurisdiction, we evaluated whether reassessed versus initial scores from Level of Service/Risk, Need, Responsivity (LS/RNR) and Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) better discriminated recidivists from non-recidivists. Using Cox regression survival analyses, we modelled risk for general and violent recidivism. Updated DRAOR scores incrementally predicted recidivism beyond initial scores, particularly showing that DRAOR Acute scores can identify needs related to immediate recidivism risk. Models combining LS/RNR criminal history scores with updated DRAOR Acute scores demonstrated the greatest predictive validity, suggesting case managers must consider acute dynamic risk factors within the context of long-term risk. We suggest that attending to criminal history, criminogenic needs and acute dynamic risk factors are each necessary for effective case management, with specific attention toward regularly reassessed acute dynamic risk factors among people identified with higher long-term risk and needs.

Međuposmatračka pouzdanost instrumenta za procenu rizika od recidivizma kod visokorizičnih osuđenih

Recidivism risk assessment in the penal system has significantly advanced, and today assessment instruments are in use that should contribute to more effective treatment of convicts. However, despite the efforts invested in the development and enhancement of the instruments, there are still certain problems in their application, which researchers and practitioners strive to eliminate or minimize. In accordance with the aforementioned, the aim of this paper is to examine the interrater reliability of the Questionnaire for Assessing Risk, Capacity and Needs of convicts in the prison system of the Republic of Serbia. The study was conducted in three penitentiaries (Požarevac, Sremska Mitrovica and Niš) on a sample of 54 convicted persons who were assessed as having a high or extremely high recidivism risk in the reception department and 35 employed professional staff members. The obtained data indicate a moderate agreement (0.637) measured by Cohen's Kappa coefficient, and an absolute agreement among of the evaluators in 88.9% of cases. On the other hand, absolute agreement of the evaluators, when looking at the recidivsm risk score, exists in only 7 cases. It was found that the largest number of items have a moderate agreement, as well as that the static recidivism risk factors were most consistently evaluated. The findings of our research show that the instrument has moderate rater agreement, on a sample of a high recidivism risk offenders, but also that there are certain problems that affect interobserver reliability.

Correspondence analysis for detecting risk factors for criminal recidivism

Correspondence analysis was used in the work to identify associations between criminal recidivism and the following elements of criminal histories of criminals: sex, age at the time of the first conviction to the actual degree of punishment, age at the time of the first conviction to the suspended or actual sentence, educational level, type of employment at the time of conviction, availability of early releases, availability of suspended sentences, availability of motivation for the release. The conducted empirical analysis made it possible to draw conclusions about the existence of a direct relationship between the risk of criminal recidivism with the age at the time of the first conviction to the suspended and/or actual sentence, the level of education obtained, the type of employment, the presence of early releases, previous conditional convictions and the lack of correlation between the fact of committing repeated criminal offenses and the gender and motivation of the convicts for release.

A LINK TO RECIDIVISM: EXCLUDING FEMALE OFFENDERS SERVING SHORT SENTENCES FROM REHABILITATION PROGRAMMES

Objective. This study discusses the issue of rehabilitation and the lived reality of female offenders serving short-term sentences who are excluded from rehabilitation programmes. This exclusion ill-equips the women from reforming their criminal behaviours leading to a life of recidivism. It also examines Bourdieu’s theory of habitus to identify a suitably unifying theoretical framework to analyse female criminality and the link between short-term sentences and recidivism. Material and methods. The explorative and ethnographic lens gives voice to social realities of the offender’s punishment, rehabilitation (or lack thereof), reintegration, and recidivism. As female offenders only constitute 3% of the correctional population in South Africa, the sample was limited to ten female offenders. Results. While research on female criminality has just starting to receive attention in South Africa, rehabilitation programmes are still mostly geared toward the reform of criminal behaviour amongst male offenders and a gender-sensitive correctional programme has been overlooked. Ironically by default, female offenders serving short-term sentences are further overlooked as they are excluded from rehabilitation programmes. Conclusion. The study makes a case that a gender-sensitive rehabilitation programme (with a focus on empowering women as decision makers capable of acquiring competence in areas such as motherhood, education, and skills development) needs to be available to all females entering the penal and corrective system. Without being equipped to deal with a variety of challenges which may affect adjustment to life outside the correctional facility and maintain their reformative behaviours, a great risk of recidivism for female offenders arises. Keywords: rehabilitation, recidivism, female offenders, short-term sentences, exclusion.

Examination of Perceived Risk of Recidivism among Female University Students

Examination of Perceived Risk of Recidivism among Female University Students

The Social Worker as a Full-fledged Member of a Multidisciplinary Cooperation within the Czech Prison System

The legislative amendment to the external differentiation of prisons in the Czech Republic since 2017 mostly stems from the need to create a modern penitentiary rehabilitation of persons serving prison sentences. The fundamental aim is to ensure those conditions that contribute to the resocialisation of said persons and lower t he risk of recidivism. What is emphasised in the context of this amendment is the greater significance of the multidisciplinary teams that work with prisoners as well as social work in prisons. The aim of this paper is thus to highlight the aspect of the importance of social work as a suitable, modern tool used by specialists, i.e. the social workers who become agents of aid or support for persons serving sentences. Our research was conducted using the qualitative method. It specifically comprised five interviews with social workers in the pre-release unit in prisons across the Czech Republic.

Motywacja osiągnięć, kluczowe autoewaluacje i kompetencje społeczne młodocianych przestępców

Adolescence is characterised by dynamic changes in both physical and mental development. During this period, it is particularly easy to develop antisocial behaviours and contact with people from criminal groups. The article presents the results of a pilot study which aim was to compare the results of the level of social competences, core self-evaluations and achievement motivation between a group of adolescents placed in juvenile detention centres and a group of high school students. According to the author, these variables may be psychological resources that contribute to effective resocialization and psychotherapy of adolescents placed in correctional institutions. The analysis of the results showed significant differences in the level of core self-evaluations, except that the group of juvenile offenders scored significantly higher than the comparison group. The remaining differences were not statistically significant. Additional analyses showed a strong relationship between the level of core self-evaluations and the level of social competence and a moderate correlation between the level of achievement motivation and the level of social competence in the group of juvenile offenders. Appropriate use of the results may contribute to increasing the effectiveness of resocialization and reducing the risk of recidivism.

The Association Between Prior Mental Health Service Utilization and Risk of Recidivism among Incarcerated Ontario Residents.

There is mixed evidence on the link between mental health and addiction (MHA) history and recidivism. Few studies have examined post-release MHA care. Our objective was to examine the association between prior (pre-incarceration) MHA service use and post-release recidivism and service use. We conducted a population-based cohort study linking individuals held in provincial correctional institutions in 2010 to health administrative databases. Prior MHA service use was assigned hierarchically in order of hospitalization, emergency department visit and outpatient visit. We followed up individuals post-release for up to 5 years for the first occurrence of recidivism and MHA hospitalization, emergency department visit and outpatient visit. We use Cox-proportional hazards models to examine the association between prior MHA service use and each outcome adjusting for prior correctional involvement and demographic characteristics. Among a sample consisting of 45,890 individuals, we found that prior MHA service use was moderately associated with recidivism (hazard ratio (HR): 1.20-1.50, all P < 0.001), with secondary analyses finding larger associations for addiction service use (HR range: 1.34-1.54, all P < 0.001) than for mental health service use (HR range: 1.09-1.18, all P < 0.001). We found high levels of post-release MHA hospitalization and low levels of outpatient MHA care relative to need even among individuals with prior MHA hospitalization. Despite a high risk of recidivism and acute MHA utilization post-release, we found low access to MHA outpatient care, highlighting the necessity for greater efforts to facilitate access to care and care integration for individuals with mental health needs in correctional facilities.

Genetic essentialist beliefs about criminality predict harshness of recommended punishment.

Genetic essentialism is a set of beliefs holding that certain categories have a heritable, intrinsic, and biological basis. The current studies explore people's genetic essentialist beliefs about criminality, how such essentialism relates to beliefs about appropriate punishment, and the kinds of judgments and motivations that underlie these associations. Study 1 validated a novel task, in which respondents estimated how possible it would be for a child to inherit criminal behavior from a sperm donor with whom they had no contact. Studies 2-4 used this task to address how genetic essentialist beliefs related to the harmfulness of a crime and the harshness of recommended punishment. Results indicated a tendency to essentialize both low- and high-harm crimes, though genetic essentialism was higher for more harmful crimes. Moreover, genetic essentialist beliefs predicted recommendations for harsher punishments, with retributive and protective motivations, as well as perceptions of recidivism risk, partially mediating this association. Further, Studies 3 and 4 found that genetic essentialism positively predicted support for harsh punishments such as the death penalty, as well as support for directing financial resources more toward law enforcement and less toward social support. Lay theories about criminality may have profound implications for decisions about appropriate punishment for wrongdoers, as well as broader policy decisions about crime, punishment, and resource allocation. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Development and Testing of the Texas Christian University Criminal Thinking Scales 3.0

Criminal thinking patterns—attitudes, beliefs, or values supportive of criminal behavior—represent modifiable clinical targets that can be influenced during treatment as a way of decreasing clients’ risk for recidivism. This study developed a revised measure of criminal thinking based on the Texas Christian University Criminal Thinking Scales (TCU CTS). Using a sample of 797 people, results showed the revised instrument (TCU CTS 3.0) measured criminal thinking in five key areas: (1) Power Orientation, (2) Justification, (3) Insensitivity to Impact of Crime, (4) Grandiosity, and (5) Response Disinhibition. Confirmatory factor analysis showed the 5-factor solution reasonably fit the data and measurement invariance was achieved for assigned sex at birth and race. Implications and future directions are discussed.

Dropout and recidivism are partly explained by emotional decoding and perspective taking deficits of intimate partner violence perpetrators.

Professionals and researchers have dedicated important efforts to understanding the underlying factors that explain the failure to complete interventions (dropout) and the recidivism of men convicted of intimate partner violence (IPV) against their female partners. There is a growing interest in measuring emotional decoding and empathic deficits in IPV perpetrators to better understand dropout and recidivism proneness, due to their direct impact on behavioral regulation. In the current study, we first aimed to examine whether the emotional decoding abilities of facial expressions and empathic abilities (cognitive and emotional), as well as their interrelationships in IPV perpetrators (n = 561), would explain dropout, treatment attendance, and recidivism (risk and official) once treatment ended. Our results allowed us to conclude that emotional decoding abilities and perspective taking (cognitive empathy) were significantly and negatively associated with dropout and recidivism. Two moderation models were significant. On the one hand, participants with low emotional decoding abilities presented lower intervention doses the lower their perspective taking. Furthermore, the percentage of participants that reoffended was higher among individuals with low and moderate perspective taking who dropped out. Therefore, our study highlights the importance of conducting emotional decoding and empathic assessments during the initial stages of intervention programs to clearly outline the therapeutic needs of IPV perpetrators. This would allow designing coadjuvant and complementary training programs that can support the main interventions by increasing treatment adherence and, in turn, reducing the risk of recidivism.

Hybrid machine learning methods for risk assessment in gender-based crime

Gender-based crime is one of the most concerning scourges of contemporary society, and governments worldwide have invested lots of economic and human resources to foretell their occurrence and anticipate the aggressions. In this work, we propose to apply Machine Learning (ML) techniques to create models that accurately predict the recidivism risk of a gender-violence offender. We feed the model with data extracted from the official Spanish VioGen system and comprising more than 40,000 reports of gender violence. To evaluate the performance, two new quality measures are proposed to assess the effective police protection that a model supplies and the overload in the invested resources that it generates. The empirical results show a clear outperformance of the ML-centered approach, with an improvement of up to a 25% with respect to the preexisting risk assessment system. Additionally, we propose a hybrid model that combines the statistical prediction methods with the ML method, permitting authorities to implement a smooth transition from the preexisting model to the ML-based model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that achieves an effective ML-based prediction for this type of crimes against an official dataset.

Effect of an Integrated Transplantation Mental Health Program on Alcohol Relapse After Liver Transplantation for Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis: A Single-Center Prospective Study

Liver transplantation (LT) for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) remains controversial due to perceived increased recidivism risk after LT because of a lack of protracted abstinence before LT. Data on risk stratification for alcohol relapse after LT are limited. We sought to evaluate the utility of having a mental health program embedded in a transplantation center in risk assessment for alcohol relapse-free patient survival after LT. We conducted a prospective analysis of all patients with a diagnosis of severe AH hospitalized at a single transplant center from April 2015 to April 2020. After a comprehensive mental health risk stratification, patients were either waitlisted for LT or declined for waitlisting. The primary endpoint was alcohol relapse-free patient survival rate for those who received LT. The secondary endpoint compared survival rates between patients who received LT and those who did not. The median follow-up was 10 months. Among the 83 patients included in the study, 54 patients were waitlisted for LT (65%, group 1) and 29 were declined (35%, group 2). Patient characteristics and median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score on presentation were comparable for both cohorts (36 in group 1, 38 in group 2; P=.8). Group 1 had significantly better Stanford Integrated Psychosocial Assessment for Transplantation total scores (median 40 vs 57; P < .01), presence of social support (100% of patients in group 1 vs 76% in group 2; P < .01), and less prevalence of active tobacco smokers (30% in group 1 vs 66% in group 2; P < .01). For those who were not waitlisted, 72.5% experienced rapid deterioration of hepatic function. Among the 54 patients waitlisted, 29 patients received LT (54%), whereas 19 died while on the waiting list (35%). One- and 3-year patient survival after LT were 92.5% and 92.5%, respectively. The overall and sustained alcohol relapse rates after LT were 10.3% and 3.5%, respectively. Severe AH is a complex medical and mental health disease and requires an intense risk assessment for recidivism after LT. Our study shows that an integrated transplantation mental health program provides an accurate risk stratification for alcohol relapse after LT, a successful intervention to mitigate recidivism risk, and optimal short-term alcohol relapse-free patient survival. Future studies should focus on enhancing the guidelines for broader application.

Long Term Recidivism Rates Among Individuals at High Risk to Sexually Reoffend.

Preventive detention provisions in the US and Canada assume we can identify, in advance, individuals at high risk for sexual recidivism. To test this assumption, 377 adult males with a history of sexual offending were followed for 20years using Canadian national criminal history records and Internet searches. Using previously collected information, a high risk/high need (HRHN) subgroup was identified based on an unusually high levels of criminogenic needs (n = 190, average age of 38years; 83% White, 13% Indigenous, 4% other). A well above average subgroup of 99 individuals was then identified based on high Static-99R (6+) and Static-2002R (7+) scores. In the HRHN group, 40% reoffended sexually. STATIC HRHN norms overestimated sexual recidivism at 5years (Static-99R, E/O = 1.44; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.72) but were well calibrated for longer follow-up periods (20years: Static-99R, E/0 = 1.00; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.16). The overall sexual recidivism rate for the well above average subgroup was 52.1% after 20years, and 74.3% for any violent recidivism. The highest risk individuals (top 1%) had rates in the 60%-70% range. We conclude that some individuals present a high risk for sexual recidivism, and can be identified using currently available methods.

Comparison of Community and Expert Samples in the Perceived Risk of Individuals Who Have Sexually Offended.

Public and clinician attitudes are important to consider when studying the reentry of individuals who sexually offend. Uninformed public attitudes drive the continued use of ineffective policies like registries and residential restrictions in the United States, and experts must assess risk to decide what level of supervision and control to recommend upon release from prison. This study investigated whether actuarial feedback could change participant attitudes about recidivism risk and disposition. Association for the Treatment and Prevention of Sexual Abuse (ATSA) members and a sample from MTurk completed a survey using vignettes to assess recidivism risk and dispositional outcomes of individuals who had sexually offended and varied in their risk to reoffend. They received feedback about the individuals' Static-99R risk levels and adjusted their initial ratings. ATSA members were less punitive than MTurk participants, initially predicted risk that was more consistent with actuarial data, and adjusted when incorrect. MTurk participants held more negative attitudes towards individuals who sexually offend, as measured by the ATS-21. They adjusted their risk ratings more than ATSA members, though their estimates were still higher than the ATSA members after feedback. Implications for US public policy, including the recommendation to use actuarials across the country, are discussed.

Outcomes of Parent-Child Interaction Therapy (PCIT) for families presenting with child maltreatment: A systematic review

BackgroundThe developmental consequences of childhood trauma for young children are extensive and impact a diverse range of areas. Young children require treatments that consider their developmental stage and are inclusive of caregiver involvement. Parent-Child Interaction Therapy (PCIT), with its dyadic focus and developmental sensitivity, is uniquely positioned to offer therapeutic support to young children and their families. AimThe current study aimed to conduct a systematic review of the current literature on PCIT and trauma and determine treatment outcomes for children and caregivers. MethodA systematic review of five electronic databases was undertaken. Studies that utilized PCIT to treat a population who had experienced trauma were included in the review regardless of study design. ResultsPCIT was used to treat a population who had experienced trauma in 40 studies. PCIT was an effective treatment in improving a variety of child and parent outcomes in this population including reduced parenting stress, child behavior problems, child trauma symptoms, parental mental health concerns, negative parenting strategies, and reducing potential risk of recidivism of abuse and neglect. These findings should be taken with caution given attrition rates and potential for bias in the study samples. DiscussionClinicians should consider PCIT as a potential treatment for children who have experienced trauma and their families. Future research should incorporate corroborative sources of information, assessment of caregiver and child trauma symptoms, examination of permanency outcomes, and consider standardization of PCIT modifications for child trauma to determine treatment in this population of children.

Clients' current presentation yields best prediction of criminal recidivism: Jointly modeling repeated assessments of risk and recidivism outcomes in a community sample of paroled New Zealanders.

Clinicians often rely on readily observable intermediate outcomes (e.g., symptoms) to assess the likelihood of events that occur outside of treatment (e.g., relapse). Similarly, those monitoring clients with histories of criminal involvement attempt to prevent adverse outcomes considered likely and intervene when symptoms/risk factors fluctuate. Our aim was to develop a stronger understanding of associations between evolving symptoms/risk factors and case outcomes, yielding clearer practice implications. We used longitudinal, multiple reassessment risk data from 3,421 individuals paroled in New Zealand. We used joint modeling to test the association between individual trajectories of psychosocial risk factor scores, assessed using Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry, and recidivism (official records of parole violations or criminal charges resulting in reconviction). We examined whether recent clinically relevant features of risk presentation (e.g., current levels, recent rate of change) predicted recidivism better than the entirety of the risk assessment trajectory. Although each model demonstrated similar predictive validity, measures of model fit indicated that models using current trajectory features outperformed those using the entire assessment history to predict recidivism. Change in dynamic risk factors is consistently associated with recidivism outcomes. When using changeable factors to monitor clients' current risk for recidivism, practitioners should focus on current presentation rather than the entire assessment history, although differences in predictive discrimination are small. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

A review and comparative analysis of the risk-needs-responsivity, good lives, and recovery models in forensic psychiatric treatment.

Forensic mental health care primarily focuses on aspects of safety. Treatment is involuntary, and personal rights are highly restricted. Both direct and indirect coercion and significant power imbalances can impede not only the psychological state of inpatients but also their treatment motivation and the therapeutic process in general. However, successful treatment is essential to enable patients to regain their freedom. Therefore, the question arises whether and how health professionals, without disregarding the potential risks, can enable forensic psychiatric patients to experience meaningfulness and self-efficacy in their lives. In offender rehabilitation, the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model and Good Lives Model (GLM) are widely established theories. The RNR model focuses not only on the risk of recidivism but also on those needs of a person that provoke or prevent criminal behavior and the individual's ability to respond to various kinds of interventions. In contrast, the GLM aims to reduce the risk of re-offending by enabling an individual to live a "good life," i.e., a meaningful and fulfilling life. Originally developed in correctional services, i.e., for offenders without severe mental disorders, both the RNR model and the GLM have also been tested in forensic psychiatric treatment contexts. The Recovery Model is based on the concept of personal recovery in mental health care and is understood as the development of a sense of purpose and mastery in one's own life during the process of coping with the sequelae of a mental disorder. It is a central element of rehabilitation in general, but is also being increasingly applied in forensic psychiatric treatment settings. This review aims to compare the central concepts of the three models, in particular regarding personal development, and the current evidence for their efficacy in mentally disordered offenders.