Increased water use in the Hebei Plain during the last decades has caused serious groundwater level decline and many geological problems which have become the biggest threat to social–economic sustainability. Thus, to determine the factors resulting in the groundwater decline and to develop a practical plan for long-term groundwater use appear to be necessary in this region. In this paper, a water balance model is used in conjunction with regression techniques to estimate the groundwater recharge coefficient and the specific yield (defined as the ratio of the volume of water that a saturated rock or soil will release by gravity drainage to the volume of rock or soil) and the groundwater withdrawn by different water use sectors and the corresponding drop in the water-table are analyzed. The decline in water-table by different crops and water economic benefit of crops are discussed in detail in order to suggest sustainable use of groundwater resources in the Hebei Plain. Finally, sample policy scenarios are developed to show how groundwater in the Hebei Plain could be used in a sustainable manner. In our study, it is found that agriculture is the major consumer of groundwater, with about 85% of the total groundwater withdrawals, and groundwater depletion is mainly caused by agricultural water use. Production of winter wheat exerts a great negative influence on the groundwater system. Winter wheat is the most water consuming crop and result in significant decline of groundwater table. Water economic benefit of winter wheat is lower than that of other crops and withdrawing winter wheat sown area is rational option to make sustainable use of groundwater. With far-sighted and regional planning, the limited water resource can be used sustainably to generate maximum social benefits. This paper will provide information necessary for land-use planning in a severe water shortage region where farmland is mainly irrigated by groundwater.
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