Times Of Recession Research Articles

Improvement of Forecasting Method of Recession Characteristics of River Flow Rate into a Dam by using Estimation of Steady State

This paper describes an application of neural networks for forecasting the flow rate upper district of dams for hydropower plants. The forecasting of recession characteristics of the river flow after rainfalls is important with respect to system operation and dam management. We present a method for improving the precision of forecasting flow rate upper district of dams by utilizing steady-state estimation and recession time constant of the river flow. A case study was carried out on the upper district of the Yahagi River in Central Japan. It is found from our investigations that the forecasting accuracy is improved to 18.6% from 25.8% with a forecasted error of the total amount of river flow by using steady-state estimation.

What drives the commodity-sovereign risk dependence in emerging market economies?

Using daily data for 34 emerging markets in the period 1994–2016, we find robust evidence that higher export commodity prices are associated with lower sovereign default risk, as measured by lower EMBI spreads. The economic effect is especially pronounced for heavy commodity exporters. Examining the drivers, we find that, first, commodity dependence is higher for countries that export large volumes of commodities, whereas other portfolio characteristics like volatility or concentration are less important. Second, commodity-sovereign risk dependence increases in times of recessions and expansionary U.S. monetary policy. Third, the importance of raw material prices for sovereign financing can likely be mitigated if a country improves institutions and tax systems, attracts FDI inflows, invests in manufacturing, machinery and infrastructure, builds up reserve assets and opens capital and trade accounts. Fourth, the country’s government indebtedness or amount of received development assistance appear to be only of secondary importance for commodity dependence.

Gaming the crisis: Derivatives and unemployment in Spain

This article analyzes nonprofessional trading in derivatives during the Great Spanish Recession. It depicts playful engagements with speculative forms of credit and debt on the part of everyday people facing mass unemployment. The article calls into question contemporary theories of debt that characterize it as inherently destructive or inherently productive. My main argument suggests that credit‐debt dyads are constant sites of manipulation, negotiation, and improvisation informed by multiple registers of affect, knowledge, and value. In showing how play and playfulness arise in the field of finance, my research sheds light on extractive business models that exploit socioeconomic uncertainties as well as labor reforms advanced in times of recession. My ethnography traverses a variety of social terrains ranging from social media to brokerage firms, trading courses, stock exchanges, and self‐help workshops in order to complicate further the anthropological work on financialization. Without denying the negative and damaging effects of financialization, I focus on the contradictory ways in which ordinary citizens become financial subjects.

The psychological impact of COVID-19 and the subsequent social isolation on the general population of Karnataka, India

The psychological impact of COVID-19 and the subsequent social isolation on the general population of Karnataka, India

School-Based Multicomponent Intervention to Promote Physical Activity and Reduce Sedentary Time of Disadvantaged Children Aged 6-10 Years: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BackgroundIn our modern society, physical activity (PA) is decreasing and sedentary time (ST) is increasing, especially for children from disadvantaged neighborhoods. School-based interventions to promote PA and decrease ST are therefore required among this population in order to change children’s lifestyle habits. Moreover, attentional capacities and academic achievement can be enhanced by chronic PA during childhood. The relationships between these variables have been poorly studied with this population.ObjectiveThe objective of this study is to present the rationale and methods for a randomized controlled trial among 6-10-year-old children with low socioeconomic status that will (1) evaluate the effectiveness of a school-based intervention designed to promote PA and reduce ST and (2) study the relationships between PA, ST, motor skills, attentional capacities, and academic achievement.MethodsA randomized controlled trial was conducted in 2 eligible primary schools. During academic year 2016-2017, 1 school was randomly assigned as the experiment one and the other was assigned as the control one. Five assessments times were used: baseline (T1 [November 2016] to T2 [June 2017]), follow-up (T3 [November 2017] to T4 [June 2018]), and final assessment (T5 [June 2019]). The school-based intervention included various components on different levels of the socioecological model: (1) curriculum-based program for children; (2) sensitization workshops and newsletters for parents; (3) training workshops for teachers; (4) environmental adaptation of playgrounds and reorganization of recess time; (5) time adaptation of lunch breaks; and (6) collaboration with political groups. PA, ST, motor skills, and attentional capacities were evaluated and academic achievement was recorded.ResultsThe presented intervention and its different assessments have been successfully implemented. In order to achieve the 2 objectives of this randomized controlled trial, data analyses are about to be completed.ConclusionsThe implementation of this randomized controlled trial can help to determine effective strategies to promote PA in the context of increasing prevalence of physical inactivity among children with sedentary lifestyle which will be useful for researchers, stakeholders, and public policy makers.Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT03983447; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03983447International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)RR1-10.2196/17815

When schools reopen, don’t neglect recess

When schools reopen in the fall, students and adults will return carrying stress and trauma arising from the sudden school closings, the social isolation, and the illness and unrest that many experienced over the summer. Rebecca London urges elementary school leaders to attend to students’ mental health and emotional needs by offering recess time every day. The need for play will be especially great among students of color and students in low-income areas, many of whom had insufficient recess time in school before the pandemic.

Spatial and temporal variability of event runoff characteristics in a small agricultural catchment

ABSTRACT The objective of this study is to investigate the factors that control event runoff characteristics at the small catchment scale. The study area is the Hydrological Open Air Laboratory, Lower Austria. Event runoff coefficient (Rc), recession time constant (Tc) and peak discharge (Qp) are estimated from hourly discharge and precipitation data for 298 events in the period 2013–2015. The results show that the Rc and their variability tend to be largest for the tile drainages (mean Rc = 0.09) and the main outlet (mean Rc = 0.08) showing larger Rc in January/February and smaller Rc in July/August. Tc does not vary much between the systems and tends to be largest at the main outlet (mean Tc = 6.5 h) and smallest for the tile drainages (mean Tc = 4.5 h). Groundwater levels explain the temporal variability of Rc and Tc more than soil moisture or precipitation, suggesting a role of shallow flow paths.

Optimized Design on Hydrant under Surface Irrigation Systems تصمیم معدّل لمحبس تحت نظام الرى السطحى

The research aimed to modify the traditional hydrant to suit connect with the newly irrigation systems. Through evaluate the performance of the traditional HT and modified HD hydrants of the surface irrigation system applied in clay soil at KafrAldoar- El-Beheira Governorate. In summer season 2019 by cultivated the corn variety of S.C 2031. Then, the results concluded that the HD is shallow less than the HT in Zf and Es but great reduction in cv and α. While it is little increase in pd, UC, DU and Ea. The HD can saved advance and recession time about39.02 and 29.46%, respectively, compared with HT in 80 m furrow length. As it was observed, the water depth reached the recommended depth for corn plants in both hydrants for most of the length of the line, but the depth when using the modified hydrant was slightly less than the traditional hydrant. The yield and WUS increased by using HD about 9.07 and 28.61 % than the HT. But it decreases the water applied about 15.16 %.The recommendation on this research is the modified hydrant can safe to use and can be generalized in the irrigation net under the surface and newly irrigation systems.

Drivers of seasonal- and event-scale DOC dynamics at the outlet of mountainous peatlands revealed by high-frequency monitoring

Abstract. Peatlands store ∼ 20 %–30 % of the global soil organic carbon stock and are an important source of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) for inland waters. Recent improvements for in situ optical monitoring revealed that the DOC concentration in streams draining peatlands is highly variable, showing seasonal variation and short and intense DOC concentration peaks. This study aimed to statistically determine the variables driving stream DOC concentration variations at seasonal and event scales. Two mountainous peatlands (one fen and one bog) were monitored in the French Pyrenees to capture their outlet DOC concentration variability at a high-frequency rate (30 min). Abiotic variables including precipitation, stream temperature and water level, water table depth, and peat water temperature were also monitored at high frequency and used as potential predictors to explain DOC concentration variability. Results show that at both sites DOC concentration time series can be decomposed into a seasonal baseline interrupted by many short and intense peaks of higher concentrations. The DOC concentration baseline is driven, at the seasonal scale, by peat water temperature. At the event scale, DOC concentration increases are mostly driven by a rise in the water table within the peat at both sites. Univariate linear models between DOC concentration and peat water temperature or water table increases show greater efficiency at the fen site. Water recession times were derived from water level time series using master recession curve coefficients. They vary greatly between the two sites but also within one peatland site. They partly explain the differences between DOC dynamics in the studied peatlands, including peat porewater DOC concentrations and the links between stream DOC concentration and water table rise within the peatlands. This highlights that peatland complexes are composed of a mosaic of heterogeneous peat units distinctively producing or transferring DOC to streams.

Sedentariness and Physical Activity during School Recess Are Associated with VO2Peak.

Recess time (RT) is a main component of school-based activities, and could contribute up to 40% of the physical activity (PA) recommended in the health guidelines. The main goal was to analyze the association between accelerometer-measured PA and sedentary time during RT with cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF). A total of 146 children and adolescents, aged 8–19 years, were recruited from six schools. PA levels were measured with GT3X accelerometers over 7 days. CRF was measured using a portable breath-by-breath gas analyzer. A general linear model (GML) was conducted to analyze the association between PA intensities and CRF during RT. Additionally, a logistic binary regression was used to evaluate the risk of unhealthy CRF among different categories of PA and sedentary time. Participants classified as healthy showed higher PA levels during RT than those classed as unhealthy. GML analysis showed that sedentary time during RT was significantly associated with VO2Peak. Finally, compared to individuals accumulate less than 15-min of ST during recess, individuals who were sedentary for more than 15 min during RT presented 43.78 times of having unhealthy CRF (95% CI 3.873–494.824). Our data suggest an association between recess sedentary time and unhealthy CRF. Thus, school-aged children and adolescents must be empowered to perform PA during RT to prevent the deleterious effects of sedentary time on CRF.

Beneficios físicos, intrapersonales e interpersonales de las intervenciones en el patio de recreo en educación primaria

Las tasas de sedentarismo y obesidad infantil preocupan a nivel internacional. En España existe un incremento alarmante de obesidad infanto-juvenil, que alcanza el 15.9% en niños de 6 a 9 años. La escolarización obligatoria tiene el potencial de paliar esta pandemia y de promover hábitos activos entre los escolares con un esfuerzo y coste relativamente bajos. Para ello es preciso implementar programas de intervención y estrategias eficaces. El presente estudio revisa la evidencia de investigación que ha analizado el impacto de las intervenciones durante los periodos de recreo aplicadas en educación primaria en la dimensión física (actividad física), intrapersonal (p. ej., motivación, comportamiento, actitudes) e interpersonal (p. ej., relación social). Los programas multicomponente (varias estrategias de intervención) y aquellos que atienden a diversos estratos de factores influyentes resultan más eficaces y completos que las intervenciones unicomponente (solo una estrategia). Se sugieren implicaciones prácticas para gestores y docentes de centros escolares. The increase in sedentary and child obesity rates worries internationally. Data from Spain reveal an alarming increase in the prevalence of childhood and adolescent obesity, which reaches 15.9% in children aged 6 to 9 years. Compulsory schooling has the potential to alleviate this pandemic and to promote active habits among all schoolchildren, with a relatively low effort and cost. This requires the implementation of intervention programs and effective strategies. This study reviews the research evidence that has analyzed the impact of interventions on recess time applied in primary schools not only at a physical level (physical activity) but also at the intrapersonal (e.g., motivation, behavior, individual attitudes, etc.) and interpersonal level (e.g., social relationship). It is concluded that multi-component programs (several intervention strategies) and those that serve different strata of influencing factors are more effective and complete than uni-component interventions (only one strategy). Finally, practical implications are suggested for principals and teachers.

Effects of Recess Depth Under the Gate Area on the Vth-Shift for Fabricating Normally-Off Field Effect Transistors on AlGaN/GaN Heterostructures.

Fabrication of normally-off field effect transistors (FETs) possessed uniform turn-on threshold voltage (Vth) is of special interests. In this work, they were fabricated using dry etching recess techniques under the gate region, with dry etching conditions of extremely low rate. We report how the recess depth under the gate area induced the Vth shift of normally-off FETs on AlGaN/GaN heterostructure, which were fabricated with a 1.5 nm/min etching rate. Chlorine-based inductively coupled plasma (ICP) was applied to perform the etching process for the AlGaN/GaN heterostructure. Devices were fabricated with different recess depths under the gate area, and examined to determine their performances, particularly the dependence of recess time and recess depth on Vth shift. The applied dry etching conditions resulted in a low-damaged and not-rough morphology on the etched surfaces of AlGaN/GaN. Fine controlled and well defined recess depth of the AlGaN/GaN heterostructure under the gate region was achieved with no etch-stop layers. Conventional fabrication processes were applied with the dry etching conditions of extremely low rate to fabricate normally-off MOSFETs of Al₂O₃/AlGaN/GaN. The achieved Vth of +5.64 V was high positive and the leakage current of off-state was measured as ~10-6 A/mm.

Relationship between factors promoting physical activities in recess times and physical fitness and motor ability in elementary school

Relationship between factors promoting physical activities in recess times and physical fitness and motor ability in elementary school

Doing good when times are bad: the impact of CSR on brands during recessions

PurposeThis paper aims to determine what the brand performance consequences of corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities would be during times of recession for well-known brands.Design/methodology/approachBased on signaling theory, this paper investigates if CSR activities serve to signal higher brand value for consumers via perceptions of better quality and greater differentiation, specifically during recessions. This study incorporates a representative longitudinal sample of known US firms for the analyses, which is accomplished through generalized method of moments estimations.FindingsThe findings empirically demonstrate that CSR initiatives during recessions are actually associated with increased perceptions of brand value. More specifically, during recessions, CSR initiatives such as charitable contributions provide a signal to customers of higher brand quality.Research limitations/implicationsThis study did not control for the costs of doing specific CSR activities that may be less visible to consumers.Practical implicationsWhile individual firms or managers may not be able to prevent recessions from happening, they can limit the negative impact of recessions on their performance by engaging in CSR activities (or refrain from cutting back) during these times.Social implicationsBecause CSR initiatives during recessions result in more favorable consumer perceptions of the brand, engaging in CSR aligns both social and managerial interests, owing to the economic gains from CSR investments.Originality/valueDuring times of recession, some critics indicate that CSR may be an unaffordable luxury. On the contrary, this research shows that managers may want to consider CSR activities as a means of increasing the value of their brands, especially during economic recessions.

An improved approach to estimating the infiltration characteristics in surface irrigation systems.

The most common methods for estimating the infiltration function are measurements through a double-ring infiltrometer (DRI) and empirical models. Infiltration data always exhibit different kinds of scatter, which affect the accuracy of the estimated infiltration function. This study presents a new methodology to calibrate the infiltration function. The suggested approach is based on combining the DRI method with the changes in the measured soil water content. Furrow irrigation experiments were conducted to estimate the infiltration function using different methods and to investigate the effect of data scatter on the reliability of the estimated infiltration function. Furrow elevations were observed, and for each irrigation event advance times, recession times, and inflow rates were observed. The infiltration depths were measured as a function of the change in the soil water content before and after irrigation event. Infiltration parameters were estimated using DRI treatment, empirical model (Kostiakov model), and suggested approach. Measured and simulated infiltration depths using the described methods were compared. The results show that the infiltration depths estimated using a DRI were lower than the observed infiltration depths, while the infiltration depths estimated using the empirical model were higher than the observed infiltration depths. The results indicate that the infiltration function estimated using the recommended approach was more accurate and reasonable than the infiltration function estimated using the DRI, and empirical (Kostiakov model) methods. In addition, the proposed approach can reduce the required measurements during the irrigation event, and can also reduce the potential scatter in the estimated infiltration function that results from soil variability and measurement errors.

Temporal Trends of Compliance With School-Based Physical Activity Recommendations Among Spanish Children, 2011-2018.

According to the current physical activity (PA) recommendations, children should accumulate 60minutes of moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA) throughout the day, 30minutes of MVPA during the school hours, and 50% of the recess time in MVPA. Our aim was to examine the temporal trends of accelerometer-based PA during the previously mentioned day segments and the proportion of children who met the PA recommendations. This was a cross-sectional study with 2 independent samples: 499 fourth graders (49.2% females) in 2011-2012 and 364 fourth graders (46.9% females) in 2017-2018. Hip-worn accelerometers were used to assess PA. A decline in light PA, moderate PA, vigorous PA, MVPA, and total PA during whole day, and in the rate of compliance with daily MVPA recommendations in males (P < .01) was observed from 2011-2012 to 2017-2018. Females decreased their daily light PA and moderate PA (P < .05). A decline in all PA variables during school hours in both sexes (P < .05) and in the rate of compliance with the 30minutes of MVPA recommended during school hours in males (P < .001) were observed. There were no differences in PA during recesses. Interventions are needed to attenuate the temporal decrease in PA levels in children.

Impact of cyclical fluctuations on employment and unemployment in France in the beginning of XXI century - selected issue.

The issue of work in itself is a problem that can be analyzed on many levels and looked at through the prism of many scientific disciplines. Economics in her nature is a social science that studies the state of world economic life using mathematical methods. A fascinating issue for understanding work in economics is the business cycles, which clearly affect unemployment patterns around the world. The nature of economics, which is concerned with studying human activities in times of recession and, just as in times of prosperity, sets the course for politicians, entrepreneurs but also ordinary workers. This is made possible by analysing and observing the behaviour in the economic markets of the world. This article is leaning towards unemployment and employment in France since the beginning of the 21st century, since France is one of the leading economies, alongside Germany, in the European Union.

Securing Jobs in Times of Recession. The German Experience during the Financial Crisis 2008/2009

As a consequence of the global financial crisis Germany experienced the deepest slowdown of its economy since World War II. However, given the sharp decrease of GDP the German labour market was quite stable compared to previous recessions when the labour market response was stronger. Therefore, there are empirical indications for temporary labour hoarding and it can be shown that the most significant factor for securing jobs was a reduction of working time. At the beginning of the crisis the conditions for short-time work became more attractive to firms. Therefore, non-subsidised forms of working time reductions or labour hoarding were complemented by public subsidies in the form of short-time work.

Groundwater Circulation in Fractured and Karstic Aquifers of the Umbria-Marche Apennine

The Umbria-Marche Apennine has a large number of springs that drain water stored in carbonate formations. Spring groundwater constitutes a crucial freshwater resource for many countries, regions, and cities around the world. This study aimed to understand the hydrological mechanisms behind groundwater circulation and their relationship to the structural and stratigraphic settings of specific aquifers. Recession analysis and time series analysis were applied to the daily discharge of six springs monitored over eight years. Both analyses indicated the presence of two types of aquifers: aquifer with unimodal behavior and aquifer with bimodal behavior. The first are characterized by two hydrodynamic sub-regimes, in which fracture networks control the baseflow and conduit networks control the quickflow. In contrast, other springs present only one hydrodynamic sub-regime related to fracture network drainage. Time series analysis confirms the results of recession analysis, showing a large memory effect and a large response time, implying the dominance of the baseflow sub-regime. These results indicate that the Maiolica Formation is characterized by a high degree of fracturation and slight karstification, which control infiltration and percolation, whereas the Calcare Massiccio Formation regulates groundwater circulation in the deeper zones of the aquifer, characterized by a high degree of karstification through moderately developed conduit networks.

Effect of micro-dams on water flow characteristics in furrow irrigation

Surface irrigation, particularly furrow irrigation, is the most common method of water application into agricultural lands. Despite all its advantages, furrow irrigation has some demerits, such as a potential large volume of runoff losses. In this research, an approach was proposed to reduce runoff losses and to improve water flow characteristics by creating micro-dams, barriers inside the irrigated furrows. To control water flow and increase infiltration into the soil, experimental micro-dams were created at distances of 10 and 20 m, with a height of 5 cm. Field experiments were conducted at the research farm of the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran in summer of 2018. Two erosive inflow rates (0.6 and 0.9 L/s) were considered. Furrow length and spacing were 100 and 0.75 m, respectively. Results indicated that micro-dams increased the advance time, leading to increased infiltration. Micro-dams also increased the recession time, due to the increase in overland water volume. Moreover, results showed that in treatments with micro-dams, runoff was reduced by up to 45.3% in comparison to the control treatment. The change in furrow cross-sectional area during the irrigation event was also reduced. Micro-dams showed a great potential to reduce irrigation runoff losses, and should be considered as a management practice aiming at water and soil conservation.