Times Of Recession Research Articles

Complex and dynamic integration processes in Europe: intra EU mobility and international migration in times of recession

Complex and dynamic integration processes in Europe: intra EU mobility and international migration in times of recession

From diversity to conviviality: intra-EU mobility and international migration to Denmark in times of economic recession

ABSTRACTThis article explores differences among EU and non-EU migrants in accommodating to the Danish flexicurity labour and welfare regime during times of economic crisis. We build our findings on a quantitative survey followed by semi-structured qualitative interviews conducted with EU and non-EU migrants who moved to Denmark during the recession period (2008–2013). We argue that the lack of multicultural policies triggers individualised strategies of accommodation rather than ethnic or national group base integration, favouring a more homogenous group of high-skilled and educated group of workers and students of postgraduate/higher education, whom we describe as a ‘flexicurity diversity group’. Through patterns of conviviality, individual socialisation is based here on common interests, needs and lifestyles and not on pre-defined ethnic and/or cultural traits. The transition from diversity to conviviality that is initiated by this group remains however incomplete in light of the unequal opportunities and the differentiated scheme of rights that apply to EU and non-EU immigrants. Danish flexicurity has thus not had the desired inclusive effects but discriminates in terms of facilitating easy access to the labour market for all, and ‘securing’ social benefits and offering rights and protection only to the privileged group of EU migrants.

Increase in Unemployment over the 2000's: Comparison between People Living with HIV and the French General Population.

BackgroundDespite improved health, unemployment has increased among people living with HIV (PlwHIV) over the last decade. However, since the economic recession of 2008, unemployment also increased in the French general population. This paper aimed to determine if the increase in the unemployment rate in the HIV population was higher than that in the French general population.MethodsWe used data from the ANRS-Vespa study, a repeated cross-sectional survey among two national representative samples of PlwHIV followed at hospitals in France in 2003 and 2011. We compared employment and unemployment rates between HIV-infected people (overall and according to period of HIV diagnosis) and the French general population in 2003 and 2011, using multivariate Poisson regressions adjusted for individual sociodemographic characteristics.ResultsThe employment rate among PlwHIV was consistently lower than that in the general population in 2003 and 2011. In contrast, there was a trend of an increasing unemployment rate difference between PlwHIV and the general population: PlwHIV’s unemployment rate was 1.48 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.16–1.90) times higher than that of the general population in 2003, versus 1.62 (95% CI: 1.34–1.96) times higher in 2011. This unemployment rate difference was the highest for PlwHIV diagnosed in or after 2008 (adjusted prevalence rate ratio: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.59–2.67).ConclusionsThese results suggest that in time of economic recession, an increasing proportion of PlwHIV may be excluded from the labor market although they are willing to re-enter it. This constitutes a major issue relative to social consequences of chronic disease.

The end of sustainability? A note on the changing politics of mass tourism in the Balearic Islands

Sustainability is often presented as the Holy Grail for mass tourism. There is a wide consensus linking the environmental upgrade of tired resorts with the competitiveness of mass tourism (Bramwell, 2003). The mantra of sustainability is particularly strong in the Balearic Islands, which is often presented as an example of sustainable mass tourism (Bardolet, 2001; Batle, 2000; Buswell, 2011). However, there are many doubts about how serious mass tourism is about sustainability (Buckley, 2007) and the lack of theoretically informed critical assessment (Bramwell & Lane, 2014). The academic consensus on sustainability is not always reflected on the ground, where contradictory logics coexist. The objective of ‘sustainability’ is particularly fragile at times of economic recession. This paper looks at the changing politics of mass tourism in the Balearic Islands. Specifically, it questions whether during the last period of recession there has been a shift away from a sustainable vision of mass tourism in favour of a more aggressive growth-orientated model. The paper addresses this question by examining a new tourism act adopted by the regional parliament in 2012 and subsequently modified in 2013 and 2014. The act was promoted by a conservative government to promote tourism growth in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. The paper follows a discursive approach to policy analysis as articulated by Hajer (1995), which emphasises the constitutive role of discourse in political practice. Central to this approach is the notion of story line, the narrative on social reality that provides the basis for a common understanding of the problem, which then underpins policy interventions. By looking at the 2012 Tourism Act as a discursive intervention, the paper shows the extent to which ideas of tourism, its challenges and opportunities are at stake in mature destinations.

A Multicomponent Schoolyard Intervention Targeting Children's Recess Physical Activity and Sedentary Behavior: Effects After One Year.

Background Aim of the study was to test the 12-month effects of a multicomponent physical activity (PA) intervention at schoolyards on recess PA levels of 6th and 7th grade children in primary schools, combining Global Positioning System (GPS) and accelerometry data. Methods A quasi-experimental study design was used with 20 paired intervention and control schools. GPS confirmatory analyses were applied to validate attendance at schoolyards during recess. Data from 376 children from 7 pairs of schools were included in the final analyses. Pooled intervention effectiveness was tested by multilevel linear regression analyses, whereas effectiveness of intervention components was tested by multivariate linear regression analyses. Results Children exposed to the multicomponent intervention increased their time spent in light PA (+5.9%) during recess. No pooled effects on Moderate-to-Vigorous PA were found. In depth-analyses on intervention components showed that physical schoolyard interventions particularly predicted a decrease in time spent in sedentary behavior during recess at follow-up. Intervention intensity and school's commitment to the project strengthened this effect. Conclusions The multicomponent schoolyard PA intervention was effective in making children spend a larger proportion of recess time in light PA, which was most likely the result of a shift from sedentary behavior to light PA.

A New Model with Regime Switching Errors: Forecasting GDP in Times of Great Recession

This paper investigates the possibility to obtain better GDP forecasts in the early stages of Great Recession. Here, predictive performance refers to exclusively out-of-sample forecasts. Based on exploratory data analysis and general-to-specific modelling, this paper proposes a univariate predictive threshold model for the small open economy that outperforms its linear counterparts and correctly determines the course of events. This model does not explain any causal links; however, based on a set of economic arguments, it sets forward an idea regarding how a forecaster can act when principal determinant factors, responsible for a sudden, yet lasting change, are unknown, unmeasurable or cannot be influenced by national policy makers. A major dissimilarity between usual threshold models and the model presented in this paper is that while variables act differently under different conditions in the former, in this model, due to economic reasons, errors act differently. Alternatively, this paper can be viewed as a comparative GDP prediction study.

American individualism rises and falls with the economy: Cross-temporal evidence that individualism declines when the economy falters.

Past work has shown that economic growth often engenders greater individualism. Yet much of this work charts changes in wealth and individualism over long periods of time, making it unclear whether rising individualism is primarily driven by wealth or by the social and generational changes that often accompany large-scale economic transformations. This article explores whether individualism is sensitive to more transient macroeconomic fluctuations, even in the absence of transformative social changes or generational turnover. Six studies found that individualism swelled during prosperous times and fell during recessionary times. In good economic times, Americans were more likely to give newborns uncommon names (Study 1), champion autonomy in children (Study 2), aspire to look different from others (Study 3), and favor music with self-focused language (Study 4). Conversely, when the economy was floundering, Americans were more likely to socialize children to attend to the needs of others (Study 2) and favor music with other-oriented language (Study 4). Subsequent studies found that recessions engendered uncertainty (Study 5) which in turn tempered individualism and fostered interdependence (Study 6). (PsycINFO Database Record

New wine in old bottles: The (changing) socioeconomic attributes of sprawl during building boom and stagnation

European cities are shifting towards scattered urban models with important transformations in the local socioeconomic context. With the aim to identify relevant associations with different urban patterns, the present study compares the socioeconomic profile of districts with respectively continuous and discontinuous settlements along the urban gradient in Rome, Italy, during building boom (early 1970s) and economic stagnation (late 2000s). Non-parametric correlation statistics and multivariate techniques were used to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of 24 indicators (population, settlement, labor market, economic structure) and 14 land-use, environmental and topographic indicators at the municipal scale. The socioeconomic context discriminating discontinuous from continuous settlements in the early 1970s was significantly different from what was observed in the late 2000s. In the early 1970s, economic structure and labor market indicators have played a major role, while demographic variables and heterogeneity in the natural landscape surrounding discontinuous settlements were particularly important in the late 2000s. Policies oriented to urban sustainability and sprawl containment may benefit from an in-depth understanding of the different socioeconomic contexts associated with scattered settlements in expansion and recession times.

BEYOND FLOOD HAZARD MAPS: DETAILED FLOOD CHARACTERIZATION WITH REMOTE SENSING, GIS AND 2D MODELLING

Abstract. Flooding is considered to be one of the most destructive among many natural disasters such that understanding floods and assessing the risks associated to it are becoming more important nowadays. In the Philippines, Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) are two main technologies used in the nationwide modelling and mapping of flood hazards. Although the currently available high resolution flood hazard maps have become very valuable, their use for flood preparedness and mitigation can be maximized by enhancing the layers of information these maps portrays. In this paper, we present an approach based on RS, GIS and two-dimensional (2D) flood modelling to generate new flood layers (in addition to the usual flood depths and hazard layers) that are also very useful in flood disaster management such as flood arrival times, flood velocities, flood duration, flood recession times, and the percentage within a given flood event period a particular location is inundated. The availability of these new layers of flood information are crucial for better decision making before, during, and after occurrence of a flood disaster. The generation of these new flood characteristic layers is illustrated using the Cabadbaran River Basin in Mindanao, Philippines as case study area. It is envisioned that these detailed maps can be considered as additional inputs in flood disaster risk reduction and management in the Philippines.

Brand management in a situation of an economic crisis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present modern marketing tools used by today’s businesses to maintain or strengthen the value of their brands in the conditions of deteriorating economic situation. The specific purpose is an analysis of activities that might be attempted by companies in emerging markets in order to increase the strength of their brands. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents the determinants of the development of brand value. An analysis has also been made of activities connected with the development of the brand based on the experience of the best brands in the world. Considerations are based on secondary sources, from national and international journals, books, magazines and specialist reports, as well as were supported by research results of the most valuable brands in the world. Findings The paper provides the insight of marketing activities, that may favor building brand value in the time of recession. It was suggested that recession may be a good time for some companies to invest in the brand. However, today’s competition conditions are forcing companies to used more modern marketing techniques in order to build a positive brand image. In addition, customers increasingly expect to be able to engage in brand and wish to influence its image. Practical implications The paper includes implications for companies in emerging markets, through which it is possible to effectively manage brand value in the time of crisis. These proposals are an important course of action for companies from emerging markets, which tend to increase the strength of its brand. Originality/value Due to the fact that the considerations in the paper relate to general proposals for action, the results can constitute a starting point for in-depth research in the future. An interesting issue would be to assess the effectiveness of the proposed activities in emerging markets.

The Price Relevance of Fiscal Developments

ABSTRACTWe use Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Estimation methods to assess the link between prices, bond yields and the fiscal behavior. A first equation determines the country-specific cost of government financing via the long-term government bond yield, as a function of budget balance positions. A second equation links the price level to the cost of government financing. Our results for 15 EU countries in the period 1980Q1–2013Q4 show that improvements in the fiscal stance lead to persistent falls in sovereign yields; higher sovereign yields are reflected in upward price movements; improvements in the fiscal stance in recession times lead to short-term decreases in yields and better fiscal stance in expansions induce downward movement in bond yields only after 8 quarters.

Book Review: The Body Economic: Eight Experiments in Economic Recovery, from Iceland to Greece

The Body Economic: Eight Experiments in Economic Recovery, from Iceland to Greece. By David Stuckler and Sanjay Basu. London: Penguin Books, 2014. 216 pp. $26.99 (cloth).The Greek word austeros is found once in the Gospels in the Parable of the Talents. It is used by the third slave who is afraid of his master and buries his talent in the ground, saying, For I feared thee, because thou art an austere man (anthropos austeros). Austerity is used in the New Testament, therefore, as a harsh treatment of others. Soon in the Christian tradition, however, it takes on more positive connotations. It comes to be viewed as a personal virtue, associated with the rigors of the ascetic life and imitation of the simplicity of Christ. Thus Thomas a Kempis would praise the austerity of the monastic ideal: Observe how many behave, who live strictly under the monastic discipline. . . . They work hard, they talk little, they keep long watches.In the Christian tradition, austerity has therefore carried this dual meaning of both virtue and vice, modesty and cruelty. David Stuckler and Sanjay Basu's brilliant little book The Body Economic is essentially concerned with the associations raised in the parable: austerity as an economic policy that manifests irrational cruelty. Recession presents two alternatives, they argue: economic stimulus or austerity. Writing from their perspective as public health researchers, they provide compelling evidence to support the claim that the only reason to choose austerity is an ideological conviction that governments should provide only minimal public services and always seek to reduce deficits. From the public health point of view, and therefore from a broader economic point of view, this makes no sense.The book comprises a series of case studies for both stimulus (1930s America, Iceland, the British welfare state) and austerity (Thailand, Russia, and most recently Greece), each of which demonstrate how carefully directed public spending on care, housing, and employment can minimize the effects of recession whereas failure to do so will have damaging and expensive consequences. The helpful concept of the fiscal multiplier is employed to differentiate between effective and ineffective public spending. Stuckler and Basu argue that, in times of recession, public spending on defense and (controversially) bank bailouts yield little public benefit, frequently taking money out of the country (they have a fiscal multiplier of less than one). In Iceland's recent economic crisis, however, the authors challenged IMF projections and demonstrated through their research that public spending in health and education had fiscal multipliers of three (that is, there is a threefold economic return in the money invested), thus stimulating recovery. …

Correlates and Consequences of Nursing Staff Job Insecurity

The health care system, and hospitals, underwent considerable restructuring and downsizing in the early to mid-1900s in several countries as governments cut costs to reduce their budget deficits. Studies of the effects of these efforts on nursing staff and hospital functioning in various countries generally reported negative impacts with threats to job security emerging as an important outcome of these changes. Health care restructuring and hospital downsizing is again being implemented as governments struggle to reduce deficits at a time of worldwide economic recession in 2008/2010. This study examines correlates and consequences of job insecurity among Canadian nursing staff, with a focus on nurses’ well-being. Data were collected from 290 nursing staff working in hospitals in Ontario, Canada. Feelings of job insecurity in the sample as a whole were relatively low. Personal demographics and work situation characteristics were generally uncorrelated with feelings of job insecurity. Consistent with previous findings, perceived job insecurity was once again associated with less favorable work and well-being outcomes. Some suggestions for more successful approaches to addressing levels of subjective job insecurity are offered.

Mobility and household forms as adaptive strategies of rural populations

Abstract Social and territorial inequalities take on new dimensions in times of economic recession. The impact of the crisis on policies aimed at achieving equity in access to opportunities and the provision of public services has been particularly acute in rural areas of Southern Europe. This article analyses the role that mobility, household composition and family networks play in the strategies that social groups use when facing such periods of uncertainty. We first analyse the changes in the forms of rural governance and in policies aimed at rural territories and societies. Second, we look at the role that mobility and rural households have historically played in strategies of resistance in times of crisis. The plasticity that family and household forms offer in shaping relations of intergenerational solidarity – caring for dependents, material assistance, etc. – is an essential resource in these strategies. These issues are illustrated with examples from fieldwork carried out in the Pyrenees in the region of Navarre. In contrast to the traditional equivalence assumed between the family as a kinship group, the home as a domestic partnership and the household as a space of single residency, our analysis sees them as independent. Our research shows that, in the adaptive strategies of family groups, mobility, networks between homes and the advantages of territorial localization play an essential role.

Macroeconomic Tail Events with Non-Linear Bayesian VARs

Motivated by the desire to probe macroeconomic tail events and to capture non-linear economic dynamics, we estimate two types of regime switching models: threshold VAR and Markov switching VAR. For each of the models, we estimate regimes which carry the interpretation of recessionary/normal and financially stressful/stable periods. Using the recursiveness assumption and conditional on shocks of one standard deviation, we show that (i) financial shocks hitting during times of recessions create disproportionately more severe contractions in output; (ii) output growth shocks hitting in financially stressful times result in disproportionately further financial stress; (iii) monetary policy shocks hitting in recessionary times create more severe contractions in output. We also demonstrate the power of a feedback loop between real and financial sectors when extremely large shocks hit the economy in normal/financially stable periods. Afterwards, we perform out-of-sample forecasting exercises, and find that the threshold VAR model has the potential to predict tail events in conditional forecasting. Overall, our findings provide strong evidence of nonlinearities and shock amplification mechanisms in the UK data, as well as empirical support to the theoretical findings of Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2014).

Moderate-to-Vigorous Physical Activity Levels in Physical Education, School Recess, and After-School Time: Influence of Gender, Age, and Weight Status

Primary and secondary school ages have been considered key moments to address the decrease of moderate-tovigorous physical activity (MVPA). Individual (eg, age, gender, and weight status) and contextual factors (moments of the day) need to be considered for a better explanation of the phenomenon. The quantity and quality of physical activity in Physical Education (PE), school recess (SR), and after school (AS) time need to be taken into account to solve the low levels of MVPA in youth. A sample of adolescents (N = 231, 14.6 ± 1.2 years old) was studied using accelerometry to determine the objective MVPA level in PE, SR, and AS. Results indicated statistically significant differences on MVPA between contexts (AS > PE > SR, P < .001) as well as regarding the individual factors: age (older > younger in PE and younger > older in SR time; P < .001), gender (boys > girls in all contexts, P < .001), and weight status (overweight > nonoverweight in AS, P < .01). Because students did not meet the daily MVPA recommendations, some strategies have been provided in each of the contexts analyzed.

Academic Unions in Recessionary Times

Academic Unions in Recessionary Times

Destinations and crisis. Profiling tourists' budget share from 2006 to 2012

Tourist spending behavior is not only relevant in terms of volume but also in terms of trip budget composition or allocation (share or proportion of total trip budget allocated to transportation, accommodation or activities). This paper aims to profile expenditure patterns before, during and after the economic crisis, and how they affect destinations. Clustering methods and compositional data analysis is used as an appropriate statistical approach to analyze share. Incoming tourists to Spain are segmented by trip budget share using repeated cross-sections of official statistics data (2006–2012). One of the main findings is that segments are heterogeneous in their cutting back on expenditure during the economic crisis, and segments increasing in size during the crisis not only spend less but also have the lowest activity share. Furthermore, the paper identifies one of the segments being particularly attractive for destinations in terms both of total expenditure and expenditure profile, with a high activity expenditure share and usually flying with low-cost airlines. The paper contributes to understanding tourist consumer behavior in terms of expenditure pattern at micro level in times of economic recession and its implications for particular destinations.

Marketing's Impact on Firm Value: Generalizations from a Meta-Analysis

The interest in the value relevance of marketing investments has given rise to numerous studies on the marketing–finance interface. This study integrates extant research findings and establishes empirical generalizations on marketing's impact on firm value. Specifically, the authors conduct a meta-analysis of prior econometric elasticity estimates of the stock market impact of marketing actions and marketing assets. Analyses based on 488 elasticities drawn from 83 studies reveal a mean elasticity of .04 for advertising expenditure variables and of .54 for marketing asset variables. Among marketing assets, customer-related assets show a higher mean elasticity of .72, compared with .33 for brand-related assets. Further analyses show that advertising elasticities are lower in more concentrated industries and that marketing asset elasticities are higher during recession times. Researchers should also be aware that characteristics of the research design (e.g., the type of firm value metric used, the omission of control variables, or not accounting for endogeneity) may affect the estimation results.

Comparison of 9th grade students’ physical activity levels during recess and regular class periods using objective measurement

Purpose: to assess and compare secondary school students’ physical activity levels during recess and regular class periods using objective measurement. Material: The study sample consisted of 26 9th grade school students (M = 15.28 years, SD = 0.47) of a German secondary school. They wore the Actiheart the whole school day for one week. All students followed the same school schedule and participated in the same classes. 9th grade school students’ physical activity levels during recess and regular class periods were assessed using the physical activity monitoring device Actiheart, which validly and objectively measures physical activity. Results: total recess time physical activity levels accounted for M = 2.38 METs, whereas total class period time physical activity levels only reached M = 1.58 METs. This difference could be proven statistically significant. Conclusions: Total recess time accounts for significantly higher physical activity levels compared to total class period time and the overall time students spend in school, respectively.