Recession Period Research Articles

Analysis on the Current Situation of Phytoplankton in the Typical River-Lake Ecotone of Lake Poyang

The typical river-lake ecotone (tail end area) of Poyang Lake, which is a sensitive area and prone to outbreaks of cyanobacteria bloom, is vulnerable to frequent human activities. To explore the diversity of phytoplankton community structure and the relevant driving mechanism in the typical river lake junction area of Poyang Lake, the water quality and phytoplankton at seven sampling points in the typical river lake junction area of Poyang Lake, at six sampling points in the middle section of Poyang Lake River, and at one sampling point in the main lake area were investigated in the field from 2019 to 2020 (dry season), April (flood season), July (wet season), and October (recession period). The results showed that there were seven phyla and 64 genera of phytoplankton in the typical river-lake ecotone of Poyang Lake, and the biomass and relative abundance of phytoplankton were dominated by diatoms and cyanobacteria. The biomass and abundance in the east of the typical river-lake ecotone of Poyang Lake were generally higher than those in the west, and the biomass and abundance in the river-lake ecotone were higher than those in the middle of the river. The dominant degree of cyanobacteria in the lake area and the river-lake ecotone was large, and the dominant degree of diatoms in the middle section of the river was large. The Monte Carlo test results showed that total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), orthophosphate phosphorus (PO43--P), water depth (WD), water temperature (WT), and transparency (SD) were significantly related environmental factors affecting the distribution of the phytoplankton community. Redundancy analysis results showed that the typical river-lake ecotone in the west of Poyang Lake was highly affected by the hydration factors (TN, TP, and PO43--P), and the hydrological factors (WT, WD, and SD) in the typical river-lake ecotone in the east were highly significant. The impact factors of phytoplankton in the typical river-lake ecotone of Poyang Lake were seasonal, being greatly affected by hydration factors in winter and hydrological factors in summer.

Economic effects of the war in Ukraine and recession

Background: The current situation from economic effects of war, as political uncertainty, geographic proximity,and the impact of new sanctions against Russia,has led to negative reactions in European stock markets.Previous research has shown that economic crises can have significant impacts on consumer financial behaviors and attitudes. Methods:The purpose of the study was to examine how consumer attitudes and behaviors change during periods of recession and to identify the implications for financial education and management during challenging economic times.Demographic data and financial management behavior data were collected from a sample 428 respondents.By examining consumer attitudes and behaviors during a recession,this study can provide insights into how financial education and management can be improved to support consumers during challenging economic times.A survey was conducted to investigate the financial attitudes and behaviors of individuals during a recessionary period from January 15th to February 28th,2023 and included questions about age, financial education level,savings behavior,attitudes towards debt,gender and financial management behavior,age and financial education, and income and savings behavior.Data were analyzed using t-tests and ANOVA. Results:Participants with higher income levels had higher levels of savings and investing behaviors than those with lower income levels. Participants with a higher level of formal education in finance had higher levels of budgeting and investing behaviors than those with a lower level of formal education in finance. Participants who reported higher levels of self-rated financial knowledge had higher levels of all financial management behaviors compared to those with lower self-rated financial knowledge. Conclusions:The findings suggest that financial education and management programs should target individuals with lower income levels and less formal education in finance. Promoting self-rated financial knowledge may be a useful strategy for improving financial management behaviors. Future research could explore the effectiveness of different financial education and management programs on improving financial attitudes and behaviors during recessionary periods.

An unstable equilibrium: the Italian immigrants' inclusion model facing the pandemic crisis test

The Italian immigrants' inclusion model has been described as a "low unemployment, bad jobs" equilibrium: immigrants have relatively high employment rates but tend to be segregated in low-quality jobs. However, as these jobs are also unstable, so is the equilibrium: during periods of recession, immigrants may face higher risks of labor-market exclusion. This paper investigates immigrant penalties in terms of employment probabilities, job loss, labor-market (re)entry, and job quality throughout the first year of COVID-19 crisis, by analyzing data from the 2019 and 2020 ISTAT Labor Force Survey. We find that the pandemic crisis accelerated an already ongoing erosion of immigrants' relative employment advantage, while at the same time increasing their segregation in low-quality jobs. The deterioration of immigrants' employment chances is chiefly driven by increased barriers in (re)entering the labor market which, especially for women, might be due to self-selection into inactivity. These findings suggest that the structural factors that have historically facilitated the activation of immigrant workers might have become factors of instability.

Early career experience of executives and stock price informativeness

This paper examines the impact of early career experience through economic recessions of executives on stock price informativeness. We find that firms with a greater percentage of executives who start their careers during recessionary periods are positively associated with stock price informativeness, as measured by firm-specific stock return variation. Moreover, we document that the association is more pronounced for firms with poor external monitoring. These findings indicate that the early career experiences of executives significantly affect the extent to which stock prices convey firm-specific information, and that external monitoring and executives’ experiences during economic downturns exhibit a substitutive relationship. This paper points out the importance of considering the heterogeneous characteristic of executives to better understand corporate transparency.

‘Free-Market Capitalism’ and Democracy in the Period of Democratic Recession: Investigating the Relationship in 141 Countries, 2006–2017

Since the mid-2000s, democratization has slowed, stopped, and even reversed across the world. At the same time, societies have become more oriented toward free markets as measured by indexes of economic freedom. Relying on a panel sample of 141 developed and developing countries between 2006 and 2017, this paper is the first to investigate whether the two phenomena are related by employing economic freedom data. It finds that there is no net-negative relationship between aggregate economic freedom and democracy in this time-period. Instead, mixed findings of both an overall positive and overall neutral (but not negative) association are uncovered in between-country and within-country analyses, respectively. In between-country analyses, using the disaggregated index shows that the legal system/property rights component drives most of the positive relationship between aggregate economic freedom and democracy in the developed world. The same between-country analyses in the developing world show that freedom of international trade is positively associated with democracy, while modest regulation has a negative relationship. However, additionally controlling for omitted variable bias using country-fixed effects, the paper does not find evidence for either a positive or negative relationship between subsequent changes in levels of economic freedom and democracy.

Research on Product Selection Model for Small E-Commerce Stores Based on Improved RFM Model

Traditionally, merchants determine whether to enter or exit the market based on the product life cycle. However in the era of e-commerce, the needs of customers are constantly changing, and the life cycle of products is very short. If a merchants accidentally enters the market during the recession period, it may lead to business failure. Therefore, stores must evaluate the value of their products in real time, grasp the trend of product value, and adjust their business direction in a timely manner to ensure the sustainability of their operations. The RFM model is a customer value evaluation model, which includes three important indicators: purchase proximity R, purchase frequency F, and purchase amount M. Products also have indicators such as proximity of purchase, frequency of purchase, and amount of purchase. Therefore, in this article, we propose a products value evaluation model based on the RFM model. In the model, we use the entropy weight method to assign weights to various indicators. Through empirical calculation, analysis, and testing of the business data of sample stores, we confirm that the model is effective in Product Selection for small e-commerce stores.

Oil price shocks and stock–bond correlation

This paper investigates the role of oil as a determinant of the US stock–bond correlation. The analysis uses monthly data over the period from February 1990 to July 2021. We examine the impact of oil shocks, using the Ready (2018) method, alongside a range of macroeconomic variables on the nature of stock–bond dynamic correlation. Our main findings demonstrate that during recessionary periods, the stock–bond correlation is adversely and statistically explained by oil supply shocks, and that correlation tends to statistically diverge from that of it is counterpart during expansionary periods. In addition, demand shocks are more pronounced in periods of pessimistic investor sentiment, whereas supply and risk shocks appear during optimistic periods. From a risk management standpoint, a backtesting exercise shows that the incorporation of supply and demand shocks generally improves the forecast of portfolio volatility under various portfolio weighting schemes and market conditions. A time-varying hedging exercise also reveals that accounting for both demand and supply shocks reduces the cost of hedging, mainly following major crisis periods. The contribution of shocks appears most with a long position in the bond market after the 2014 oil crisis period. Our main results remain the same after performing a set of the robustness checks.

Application of remote sensing monitoring to the spatiotemporal variation in debris flow activity in the catastrophic Wenchuan seismic area

Debris flows are typical compounded geohazards with long-term activity in earthquake-stricken areas. Numerous debris flows were simultaneously induced by subsequent extreme precipitation and caused serious property losses and casualties. Monitoring the dynamic variation in debris flow activity and its decay process over time is key for debris flow risk management and mitigation of the impact of debris flows. In this study, the spatiotemporal variation in debris flow activity of the Wenchuan seismic area over the past ten years was monitored based on multiperiod satellite data and field monitoring. The hillslope landslide sediment delivery to the channel gradually decreased, and the area with higher sediment transfer potential gradually changed from southern Wenchuan County to the northern area, which caused the area with high susceptibility to debris flows to gradually move towards northern Wenchuan County. Impacted by the decrease in available materials and coarsening of channel materials, the power of rainfall runoff required for driving debris flows gradually increased. This resulting debris flow is more likely to occur in this basin with a larger catchment area, longer channel length, and higher elevation difference. The changes in the debris flow activity index indicated that the debris flow activity evolves with an impulse type, and it may last for decades. The decay processes of the debris flow activity were summed up in three periods, i.e., high-activity period (2008–2015), unstable period (2015–2035), and recession period (after 2035), based on the dynamic evolution of material, hydrodynamics, and the coefficient of debris flow activity. Simultaneously, the active characteristics of debris flows in different periods were revealed, which is of great significance to the risk management of debris flows in the next period.

Determinants of the mental health status of university students in Japan: comparison between pandemic and recession periods during the 7th wave of COVID-19.

Although the number of identified coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths has decreased, the repetitive crest-trough pattern of the spread of COVID-19 has yet to cease. The current situation may affect the mental health status of university students who are distracted in their academic and daily lives by the pandemic. This cross-sectional study aimed to identify the determinant factors of the mental health status of Japanese university students before and in the middle of the 7th wave of the pandemic, one of the largest waves to be experienced in Japan. A survey was administered to two groups of students during the recession period between the 6th and 7th waves (n = 156) and during the 7th wave of the pandemic (n = 97). T-tests showed no statistically significant differences between the two groups in Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) scores, while the COVID-19 anxiety scores (p < 0.001) and General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) scores were significantly higher in the Pandemic period group (p = 0.011). The multiple regression model indicated that PSS scores were the only determinant of GHQ scores in the Pandemic period group. The results indicate that stressful life events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and daily hassles, which are measured by the PSS, affect students' mental health differently. Therefore, the author submits that school counselors should provide counseling to students to reduce anxiety caused by daily hassles, during recession and pandemic periods. Students also require assistance with the reduction of stress and anxiety caused by daily hassles, regardless of the pandemic situation.

Not by bread alone: Public–private intersectoral gap in job satisfaction

The choice of a workplace, in the public or private sector, is not accidental. The paper presents a study on the public—private intersectoral gap in job satisfaction (JS). Given the observed wage premium in the private sector, it can be assumed that there are non-monetary forms of compensation for the wage loss in the public sector. They are expected to manifest themselves in job safety during periods of recession, which might affect the intersectoral gap in job satisfaction. Evaluation on panel data with fixed individual effects allows solving the problem of self-selection into a certain sector. A study based on RLMS-HSE data shows that in the period 2002—2021 the intersectoral gap in job satisfaction, as well as its elements — satisfaction with the labour contract, salary and promotion, — was generally insignificant. This does not rule out self-selection into a particular sector but explains the low level of transitions between the sectors. A significant intersectoral gap in job satisfaction is revealed for less competitive groups in the labor market during crises. This is the evidence of negative self-selection. During the COVID-19 pandemic, women, young workers (17—34 years old), and at other times, workers over 55 years old employed in the public sector rated JS significantly higher. Negative self-selection into the public sector is more likely to be attributed to specific socio-demographic groups than to the entire sector. Wage, as well as its degree in comparison to the average one in the profession in the local labor market, affects the JS of public employees to a lesser extent. This suggests that public workers are less sensitive to monetary rewards and value job safety, self-realization opportunities and a sense of usefulness of work for society more.

Lake Impoundment in Advance of Post-Flood Period Based on Large-Scale Numerical Simulation

Influenced by climate warming and human disturbance, the contradiction between flood control and water supply of the rivers-connected lake is becoming more prominent, and the prevailing dispatch system mainly aimed at flood control is a serious challenge for storage allocation. This paper presents a lake impoundment in advance method during flood recession period, which preliminarily explores the traditional dispatch model and couples it with a high-precision hydrodynamic model. A one- and two-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic model was constructed for integrated flood regulation in the “river-lake-flood detention basin” system. Then a sample library of water storage strategies was developed, which combined impounding times and gate operation schemes based on previous engineering experience. Thus, by combining large-scale numerical simulations of flood scenarios and risk-benefit assessment, the dispatching schemes facilitating the combined use of gates during the post-flood period under different wet-dry conditions were determined. The results show that: (1) the hydrological-hydrodynamic model has high accuracy for realizing the elaborate simulation of flood evolution and inundation dynamic between lands and lakes, with the average error controlled from 0.03 to 0.14 m, (2) the strategy extraction method of post-flood impoundment in advance for the lake basin is proposed, which takes the impounding times, gate scheduling rules, and inflow scenarios into account comprehensively, and (3) under the optimal storage strategies, the water storage efficiency is significantly improved, with the water level overrun rate controlled at 19.24%, the terminal storage level raised by 0.96 m, and the storage capacity increased by 17.0×108 m3 on average. The outcomes will provide support for flood control and water storage improvement during the post-flood period, which is beneficial to the utilization and management of flood resources.

Physical activity and social interaction assessments in schoolyard settings using the System for Observing Outdoor Play Environments in Neighborhood Schools (SOOPEN)

BackgroundThe schoolyard environment provides key opportunities to promote physical activity and socioemotional development for children. Schoolyards can also serve as a community park resource outside of school hours. We aimed to: (i) implement and evaluate reliability of the System for Observing Outdoor Play Environments in Neighborhood Schools (SOOPEN), (ii) assess schoolyard use by children during recess and community members of all ages outside of school hours, and (iii) investigate relationships of schoolyard and children´s group characteristics with physical activity levels and prosocial interactions.MethodsIn this cross-sectional study, we observed student and community visitor behavior using SOOPEN at three urban elementary schoolyards in Tacoma, Washington, USA, prior to renovations intended to expand each facility’s use as a community park in neighborhoods with poor park access. We assessed interrater reliability using intraclass correlation coefficients and described current levels of schoolyard use (at the group level), physical activity, and prosocial behavior. Physical activity was assessed on a five-point scale and dichotomized to indicate moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Social interactions were coded as prosocial, antisocial, or neutral. We examined associations of selected schoolyard features and group characteristics with group MVPA and prosocial behavior during recess using modified Poisson regression to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsWe observed a total of 981 activity-defined, informal groups in the schoolyards, and achieved good to excellent interrater reliability using SOOPEN. Community use of the schoolyards during evenings and weekends was limited (n = 56 groups). During 26, 25–50 min recess periods (n = 833 groups), 19% of groups were engaged in MVPA. Schoolyard areas with paved surfaces were associated with more MVPA (PR = 1.52, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.23) compared to field/grass areas; supervised groups were associated with less MVPA than groups not directly supervised by an adult (PR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.36, 0.96). Schoolyard characteristics were not associated with prosocial behavior. Mixed-gender groups were associated with more MVPA and more prosocial behavior.ConclusionsOur study using SOOPEN, a reliable new activity observation tool, highlights the multi-dimensional dynamics of physical activity and social interactions in schoolyards, which could be leveraged to promote healthy behaviors during and outside of school hours.

Does the Government Spending Multiplier Depend on the Business Cycle?

AbstractWe investigate the state dependency of the government spending multiplier across the business cycle using a nonlinear two‐regime VAR model. We find little evidence that multipliers vary between expansionary and recessionary periods. This is because the state of the business cycle itself changes after government spending shocks and converges toward a similar state. This result holds true regardless of how we model the business cycle. Our analysis shows that assumptions about the economic state built into linear impulse response functions are the key driver of the state dependency reported elsewhere in the literature.

Disentangling the asymmetric effect of financialization on the green output gap

Insufficient green output can lead to environmental degradation while overinvestment may result in economic imbalances, social inequalities, and opportunity costs. Thus, sustaining an optimal level of green growth could restrict both green neglect and green grabbing. A higher level of financialization is believed to be an efficient allocation mechanism for green development. This research provides empirical insights into how financialization helps narrow the green growth gap. Using various estimation techniques such as the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, Hamilton's filter, and the super-efficiency slack-based model, we examine the heterogeneous effects of financialization on the green growth gap by utilizing unbalanced panel data from 124 countries spanning the period 1980–2020. The results, obtained through bootstrapped quantile regression, indicate that financial access, depth, and efficiency contribute to improving insufficient green growth levels and curbing excessive investment in green initiatives. However, we find little or no evidence that financial stability or liberalization restricts overinvestment in low-carbon economic development or improves environmental stewardship when green neglect is observed. Additional analysis suggests that business cycle fluctuations, especially during recessionary periods, adversely affect the ability of financialization to optimally allocate green resources, but this effect is mitigated if financial development is countercyclical. Policymakers should prioritize promoting financial depth and efficiency, as well as provide access to finance, in order to support sustainable green growth and to avoid overinvestment in low-carbon economic development.

Slow Workers: Labelling and Labouring in Britain, c. 1909–1955

Summary This article surveys the experiences of historical actors labelled ‘mentally defective’ and ‘mentally handicapped’ in Britain in the first half of the twentieth century. It decentres institutions and experiences of segregation, and instead foregrounds employment as a way to historicise and make visible the experiences of individuals with intellectual impairments who lived in communities. The article discusses significant opportunities for paid employment, both formal and informal, for disabled people. Periods of economic growth or recession rendered such workers visible, as did efforts to regulate labour markets and wages. The article argues that rather than ‘mental age’ becoming dominant in framing intellectual disability, vernacular and negotiable categories of ‘wage age’ predominated in workplaces to the mid-twentieth century. Intellectually disabled people adopted precarious strategies of ‘getting by’ and while they commonly experienced low wages, could also sustain degrees of community inclusion at the margins of the economy.

Who Cares, Too? Degenderization of Childcare Policies in Europe: A Dynamic Fuzzy-Set Analysis

This article traces the evolution of childcare policies in Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Slovenia, Sweden, and the United Kingdom during the period 2005–15 in order to observe changes possibly related to economic crisis. Applying the concept of degenderization and the method of fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fs/QCA), the study examines: (1) equality of parental leave entitlements, (2) generosity of parental leave-related benefits, (3) accessibility of childcare services, and (4) length of all available leave schemes, at six points in time. The argument is that changes within this period did not lead to a radical transformation in childcare policy, while those shifts that took place could be more often characterized as degenderizing, contrary to expectations. Finally, the study identified policy clusters: four types of genderization (strong genderization, with care payment, with care parity, and with activation), strong and weak versions of degenderization, as well as a mixed case. HIGHLIGHTS This study traces the evolution of childcare policies across nine EU countries during the period of recession between 2005 and 2015. It uses the concept of “degenderization” to develop a typology of childcare policies. A dynamic analysis reveals that despite austerity measures, policies usually remained stable over time. Moreover, despite the crisis, policies tended to promote gender equality in care. Small steps toward degenderization in care policies over time signal that the gender revolution is not “stalled.”

Impact of the Influence Factors for the Operating Profit of Companies from Romanian Agri-Business Sector

Abstract The objective of the study is to assess the impact of the influence factors for operating profit obtained by Romanian agriculture companies that have accessed bank loans in two consecutive years with major differences in results. The analysis was done for the year 2019 which was a very good one in term of production at national level and 2020 when the agriculture activity was affected by severe drought. The influence factors taken in consideration are turnover, equity and interest expenses. The purpose is to determine where a company is earning its profits or where is losing money and to predict the movement of the financial results considering that internal or external factors can change substantially. The research was carried out on a sample of 2220 companies from the Romanian agri-business sector. The size of the sample differentiates the study within the specialized literature. The relationship between variables was determined using a descriptive quantitative method and the multiple regression test using the SPSS software. The specialized literature is dominated by studies in which indicators are used in the form of rates, but the present study only uses indicators in absolute values. The operational income depends on the operational revenues and costs, but it is more important to observe the impact factors which can reflect the behavior of the shareholders as the level of equity or the interest expenses which can be influenced by external factors like inflation. According with the results obtained, the interest expenses have a significant influence on the operating profit and the negative effect can be amplified by decreases in turnover or equity. The effect of this relationship should be anticipated especially in the recession periods of the economy when the decrease in turnover can appear at the same time with the increase in interest cost.

State guarantees to counteract the financial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on industrial supply chains

As the recent COVID-19 pandemic has clearly demonstrated, appropriate state support policies are crucial for supporting industrial supply chains during crises to prevent viable businesses from defaulting. In this context, this study proposes a hybrid credit risk model to appropriately size public interventions for viable (worthy) businesses through systematic risk assessment during a period of turmoil. This study discusses the effects of the credit crunch-based economic downturn and proposes a methodology to assist policymakers in managing limited public resources to effectively support industrial supply chains. The proposed approach initially focuses on the dynamics of credit risk during economic recession periods, identifying the conditions that may justify a public intervention strategy based on public guarantees. Subsequently, a hybrid credit risk model is developed to appropriately size public interventions by quantifying systematic risk. Finally, a numerical application is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Automatic Storage and Retrieval System (AS/RS) Design for Manufacturing System

In this article, the Automatic Storage and Retrieval System (AS/RS) desing used in automatic production systems and the AS/RS simulation technique were studied in this design. Part 1, which was created by simulating with computer code, was composed of two types of cells according to the dimensions of the space. Thanks to the prepared simulation, it offers the performance of AGVs, robots and collection-deposit stations. The simulation created has tested how long the warehouse can withstand periods of recession and depression. The simulation was run in two modes as single command mode and dual command mode. According to the obtained data, it has been obtained that the binary mode gives better performance compared to the single instruction. At the same time, this study; He proved that when the input speed is greater than the output speed, the binary instruction allows more items to be translated in a given time frame compared to a single instruction.

Project Management in Strategic Planning of Enterprises at the Present Stage

In this article, the authors consider project management in the strategic planning of energy industry enterprises. The purpose of the article is to analyze and calculate indicators in order to identify the effectiveness of energy enterprise modernization. The authors thoroughly analyze the literature review on project management in the enterprise’s strategic planning. The authors also revealed that strategic planning in the project management framework is considered a dynamic set of six interrelated management processes that logically follow each other. Results: the authors calculated the degree of factors influenced to identify the decreased degree in the enterprise efficiency by the method of chain substitutions. As a result, heat energy was underdeveloped due to the reduction in the number of operation hours of boiler units. As a result of the conducted research, it was revealed that a change in the values of the main factors, namely the number of boiler units operating and due to heat losses from external pipelines affecting the production process, entails a change in the generated power of boilers, the amount of load and the valuable heat released, and hot water transferred to the consumer. Conclusion: the presented data and their analysis make it possible to effectively assess that a well-chosen and successfully implemented business management strategy is the key to its effective functioning in a market economy. Of course, a good strategic plan and its good execution do not guarantee that the company will be able to completely avoid periods of recession and uncertainty.