Years Of Recession Research Articles

The epidemic within the pandemic: Behavioral health and substance use in the face of COVID-19

The epidemic within the pandemic: Behavioral health and substance use in the face of COVID-19

An Empirical Comparison of the Sales Forecasting Performance for Plastic Tray Manufacturing Using Missing Data

The problem of missing data is frequently met in time series analysis. If not appropriately addressed, it usually leads to failed modeling and distorted forecasting. To deal with high market uncertainty, companies need a reliable and sustainable forecasting mechanism. In this article, two propositions are presented: (1) a dedicated time series forecasting scheme, which is both accurate and sustainable, and (2) a practical observation of the data background to deal with the problem of missing data and to effectively formulate correction strategies after predictions. In the empirical study, actual tray sales data and a comparison of different models that combine missing data processing methods and forecasters are employed. The results show that a specific product needs to be represented by a dedicated model. For example, regardless of whether the last fiscal year was a growth or recession year, the results suggest that the missing data for products with a high market share should be handled by the zero-filling method, whereas the mean imputation method should be for the average market share products. Finally, the gap between forecast and actual demand is bridged by employing a validation set, and it is further used for formulating correction strategies regarding production volumes.

The Impact of Base Lending Rate on Capital Structure in Malaysia

This paper investigates the pattern of capital structure of 4,127 Malaysian companies from 2005 to 2015. We, then specify the sample into two periods, the pre-recession period from 2002 until 2007 and post-recession period from 2009 until 2015, to determine whether there is any significant different in term liabilities between the two periods. For the third objective of this paper, we examine the impact of base lending rate (BLR) in the capital structure between pre- and post-recession periods, indicating the companies drastically change their capital structure after recession occurs. In this paper, we find a sharp downwards movement in long-term debt and total debt after 2008 year of recession. We also document the level of total debt and long-term debt to significantly higher before the recession hit. Interestingly, we find base lending rate to have negative relationship with long-term and total debts only after recession has occurred but not during the economic expansion (pre-recession period), thus supporting the study’s hypotheses.

Inequality and income dynamics in Germany

We provide a comprehensive analysis of income inequality and income dynamics for Germany over the last two decades. Combining personal income tax and social security data allows us—for the first time—to offer a complete picture of the distribution of annual earnings in Germany. We find that cross‐sectional inequality rose until 2009 for men and women. After the Great Recession, inequality continued to rise at a slower rate for men and fell slightly for women due to compression at the lower tail. We further document substantial gender differences in average earnings and inequality over the life cycle. While for men earnings rise and inequality falls as they grow older, many women reduce working hours when starting a family such that average earnings fall and inequality increases. Men's earnings changes are on average smaller than women's but are substantially more affected by the business cycle. During the Great Recession, men's earnings losses become magnified and gains are attenuated. Apart from recession years, earnings changes are significantly right‐skewed reflecting the good overall state of the German labor market and increasing labor supply. In the second part of the paper, we study the distribution of total income including incomes of self‐employed, business owners, and landlords. We find that total inequality increased significantly more than earnings inequality. Regarding income dynamics, entrepreneurs' income changes are more dispersed, less skewed, less leptokurtic, and less dependent on average past income than workers' income changes. Finally, we find that top income earners have become less likely to fall out of the top 1 and 0.1%.

Income Inequality in College Enrollment and Degree Attainment During and After the Great Recession Years

Prior research using the Current Population Surveys (CPS) documents a dramatic equalization in U.S. college enrollments based on family income starting in 2014. However, the measurement of income for independent young adults is problematic; we correct for this by imputing their incomes. We complement our reanalysis of CPS data with data from the Panel Study for Income Dynamics-Transition into Adulthood (PSID-TA). Both data sets show moderate, nonsignificant reductions in the income gap in college enrollments for cohorts coming of age during and after the Recession. Extending the CPS analysis to examine inequalities during the COVID pandemic, we show more or less unchanged inequalities for the cohort coming of age in 2020. Using the PSID-TA to examine degree attainment, we again find stable income inequalities in obtaining any degree and a bachelor’s degree for pre-Recession and Recession-era cohorts.

Labor Market Trajectories for Community College Graduates: How Returns to Certificates and Associate's Degrees Evolve Over Time

Abstract We estimate labor market returns to terminal associate's degrees and certificates, with a particular focus on how returns for different credential types evolve over a longer period of time (eleven years post entry) than most of the prior literature. We also explore how returns vary depending on labor market conditions and on which labor market outcome metric is used. Using administrative data from Ohio and an individual fixed-effects approach, we find that the value of an associate's degree grows substantially after graduation, and this finding is robust to choice of specification and outcome. The returns to a long-term certificate are flat over time in our main specification, but more sensitive to assumptions about individual-specific earnings trends. Returns to associate's degrees are notably higher in recession years versus prerecession years. Finally, we find that associate's degrees lead to improved outcomes relative to non-completion across a range of metrics, including higher paying jobs, more stability in employment over time, and a greater likelihood of earning a living wage, whereas certificates generally pay off via the employment margin and a reduced likelihood of claiming unemployment insurance.

O impacto da meritocracia em empresas de logística durante crises econômicas

Purpose: meritocracy and incentives for innovation are instruments in the search for efficiency and increased productivity. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the correlation between meritocracy and productivity gains that a franchise network presented in a year of economic crisis in Brazil. Design/methodology/approach: the method of qualitative and quantitative approach of this research used experimentation, based on interviews, observation and data analysis. Two groups of companies, which totalized 92 companies and 746 professionals participated of the research. Findings: management based on recognition and reward for employees of a group of companies has shown an increase in productivity of up to 25% in a year of economic recession. In the same period, another group of companies in the same business, but without a meritocracy-based compensation system, achieved a 9% drop. Research limitations/implications: this work suffered from limitations as to the influence of the local economy of each franchise on the results, impacting the comparisons of the groups that participated in the experimental research. Practical implications: logistics companies can use this work to define a meritocratic model that encourages employees to seek innovation in processes and contribute to better operational performance. Social implications: logistics has a strong impact on the competitiveness of companies, from industry to commerce. This work offers visibility of the influence of productivity in logistics companies in the supply chain. Originality/value: this work contributes to the analysis of the influence of meritocracy in people management, especially in times of economic crisis.

The Impact of Walkability on the Sales Price of Commercial Properties When Controlling for the Effects of Economic Recession: A Case Study of Omaha, Nebraska

In this paper, we assess the potential impact of walkability on commercial property sales prices in Omaha, Nebraska in the years during and following the “Great Recession.” Walkability was determined using Walk Scores provided by Walkscore.com; commercial property sale prices were acquired from the Douglas County, NE (the core county of the Omaha metro) Assessor’s Office. The relationship between commercial sales price and walkability between 2008 and 2018 was evaluated using a multiple linear regression model based on hedonic price theory. A variable to indicate time period (either 2008–2012 to denote “recession years” or 2013–2018 to denote “post-recession years”) was added to the model to investigate the potential impact of walkability on sales prices while controlling for the effect of the Great Recession. We observed a significant positive relationship between walkability and commercial property sales prices across all models.

The Social Construction of Food Security: The Israeli Case

” Food securitization” refers to the process by which food supplies are linked to larger security issues or broader notions of human security. While this study is built on the surge of food policy studies that acknowledge the importance of discourse, rhetoric, and labeling in shaping the notion of security there is no empirical research that explicitly examine how securitization process of food policy takes place, why, when and the implications of this. The aim of the study was to examine the contextual events that triggered the securitization of food policy: the actors who used food security rhetoric, and the institutional measures they suggested for solving food insecurity. By taking a discursive approach, the study quantitatively examined how and why food was securitized during debates on Israeli food policy took place during two time periods: 1948–1950, the years of the implementation of the austerity laws; and 2008–2017, the years of global recession, and the rise of obesity. The study found that the notion of food security was strategically used to define a variety of food-related issues. Each definition of food security was triggered by a variety of events and social contexts such as war, increases in the cost of living, the rise in obesity rates, and global warming. These frames, used throughout the debates, then influenced the actor’s choice of solutions. The study shows that most Israeli actors reacted to food security frames using institutional welfare measures.

Política de Dividendos e Períodos de Recessão: Evidências no Mercado de Capitais Brasileiro

Objetivo: Observar o comportamento da distribuição de dividendos das empresas listadas na B3, comparando os períodos de expansão e de recessão na economia brasileira.Método: Foram realizados dois modelos de dados em painel, o qual contaram com o índice payout e com o índice dividend yield como variáveis dependentes e uma dummy classificada como 1, para os anos em que houve recessão econômica e 0 para os anos em que houve ascensão econômica, como variável independente. Além disso, foram acrescentadas ao modelo, as variáveis de controle alavancagem financeira, tamanho e o lucro por ação.Originalidade: O estudo abordou a distribuição de dividendos de acordo com o ciclo da economia brasileira, o que torna a pesquisa original, uma vez que não foram encontrados estudos semelhantes.Resultados: Independentemente da proxy de distribuição de dividendos utilizada, as empresas aumentam a distribuição de dividendos em períodos de recessão, quando há maior incerteza no mercado. No que tange às variáveis de controle, para o modelo estimado utilizando a proxy índice payout, apenas a alavancagem financeira não se mostrou significante, enquanto o tamanho e o lucro por ação foram positivamente significantes. No modelo que tem a proxy dividend yield como variável dependente, o lucro por ação não se mostrou significante, ao passo que a alavancagem financeira e o tamanho se mostraram negativamente correlacionadas ao dividend yield. Contribuições: Identificação do aspecto economômico na política de dividendos das empresas brasileiras e na criação de valor para os acionistas em períodos de recessão econômica.

The Australian labour market in 2020

This article provides a review of the Australian labour market in 2020. It outlines the monetary and fiscal responses to COVID-19 (including JobKeeper, JobSeeker and JobMaker policies), describes trends in employment, unemployment and underemployment and summarises the Fair Work Commission’s 2020 minimum wage decision. Data show that in the year to September 2020, total monthly hours worked fell by 5.9% for males and 3.8% for females. Job loss was proportionately larger amongst young people (aged 20–29) and older people. It was also disproportionately higher in female-dominated sectors such as Accommodation and Food Services. Unlike the earlier recession (1991), when more than 90% of jobs lost were previously held by males, a significant share (around 40%) of the job loss in the 2020 recession (year to August 2020) were jobs previously held by females. Notwithstanding a pick-up in employment towards year’s end, the future remains uncertain.

Educational inequalities in suicide in the highly volatile economy of Argentina.

Little is known about how economic fluctuations affect educational inequalities in mortality in low- or middle-income countries. The objective of this study is to analyze the temporal variations in educational differentials in suicide in four Argentinian provinces. Data on suicides for ages 25years and over and three age groups (25-44, 45-64, and 65 +) in four Argentinian provinces during the period 1999-2013 were linked to population data and information on the educational level of the deceased. Regression models were estimated using age, sex, year, province of residence, educational level, and economic character of the year (expansion or recession) as explanatory variables. The educational gap in suicide mortality widened since the expansion following the crisis of 1999-2002, and then only decreased in 2005 and 2011. For ages 45-64, the confidence intervals of the suicide rate overlapped each year, and the suicide rate of the middle-high education population exceeded the suicide rate of the low-education population in 2 recession years, 1999 and 2002. Considering the years of economic expansion or recession as a dichotomous variable, at ages 45-64 differences in suicide rates by educational level disappeared during years of recession, while they were present in years of expansion. Suicides rise during economic downturns but these periods could reduce the educational gaps of suicide mortality by increasing the vulnerability of adults of high educational level to changes in the economy.

YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT: A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR YOUNG ITALIANS NEET AND A COMPARISON WITH THE SOCIAL EXCLUSION CONDITION

The spread of the NEET (young people not in education, employment and training) phenomenon in Italy is largely due to the recession that has exacerbated the structural problems of the labor market, worsening job opportunities and contractual conditions, particularly for young people. We analyze how the level of youth unemployment (YUR) influences the number of young NEETs, both as a direct cause and through the risk of discouraging young people, considering the endogeneity issue. We also analyze the role of YUR and other control variables characterizing the youth condition on the social exclusion rate, since the NEET status is comparable to a form of social exclusion. More information comes from the comparison between two divergent macro-areas: the wealthy Center-North and the less developed South of Italy. The results show that the causes of the two phenomena are different in the years of recession. YUR has a predominant effect on NEET, particularly in the less developed area.

Exploring Factors Associated With Full Implementation of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid Tobacco Cessation Provisions

Medicaid enrollees use tobacco at rates more than double that of the general population. To address this disparity, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) contained provisions to increase access to tobacco cessation treatments for Medicaid enrollees. There have been relatively low levels of implementation of these provisions by Medicaid programs. This research aims to evaluate the potential political, economic, and policy factors associated with implementation of each of the four tobacco‐cessation‐related ACA provisions. In 2017, UC San Diego researchers collected survey data from 51 Medicaid programs on tobacco cessation treatment policies and state‐level variables from publicly available sources. Implementation of these provisions was associated with state‐level variables such as having a budget shortfall during the recession years, Democratic control of the Governorship or legislature, and higher state cigarette taxes. Further guidance from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services will be necessary to achieve full implementation of these ACA provisions.

The macroeconomic effects of covid-19:the imperative need for a Keynesian solution

A very severe recession has hit the global economy in the wake of covid-19. The exact magnitude of this shock is uncertain, but many believe that the setback in GDP will be on a scale similar to, if not worse than, the first years of the Great Recession. As such, there is an imperative need for policy actions of a Keynesian nature, as have already been implemented in many countries. Given the atypical circumstances of the crisis, a new type of supply-side-oriented Post-Keynesian policy should be followed. The purpose of this policy should be to support the firms, in order to prevent them from destroying their production capacity and to move forward with the ecological transition. This paper uses the case of Denmark to present a demand-driven Post-Keynesian stock-flow consistant (SFC) model with labour market restrictions based. It highlights some aspects of the negative economic impact of covid-19 on the Danish economy and of the policies adopted by the Danish Parliament.

Common partridge (Perdix perdix L.) in agrolandscapes of Central Ukraine: population dynamics and environmental implications

The analysis of the common partridge number dynamics during the first 15 years of the XXI century testified to its moderately fluctuating type with a tendency to dynamic reduction from 2000 to 2007. During the next 7-year period, there was a certain stabilization of the local population, which formed the lower plateau of indices within the range from 3.72 to 4.77 thousand individuals in 2007 and 2014, respectively. A 4-year cyclicity in changes of the local partridge cenopopulation dynamics was revealed. In general, 1-4 years of recession were followed by 1-2 years of relatively insignificant rise. It is worth noting, almost every subsequent peak did not reach the level of previous ones. The amplitude of fluctuations between the maximum (10.65 thousand specimens) and minimum (3.72 thousand specimens) values of the calculated birds in the regional lands was 6.94 thousand specimens, or 65.1% of the maximum. The mean density of birds in the lands during the study period was only 2.3±0.03 birds/thousand ha, with fluctuations from 5.3 to 1.8 birds/thousand ha. The duration of the period between the maximum (2000) and minimum (2007) numbers was 7 years, and the mean number for the study period was 4.63±0.057 thousand birds in the total area of over 2,018 thousand ha. At that time, during the study period, the upper population plateau was not recorded at all. Such changes are most likely due to the high degree of "predation" of the common fox, mass poaching, weak biotechnical measures, unsatisfactory natural fodder base in critical periods of the year and non-compliance with agricultural standards by farmers.

Workers' Struggles in Post-Socialist Slovenia: Between Trade Union Strategies and Worker Stratification in the Workplace

The article examines the links between the evolution of the relationships of both labour/capital and trade unions/membership in post-socialist Slovenia. Research was conducted in three Slovenian companies in the recession years 2013-2014. The presentation builds on the concept developed by the Italian Operaism of the “technical” and “political” composition of the labour force. The aim is to apprehend a range of employee positions in the workplace and how they impact political commitments, here expressed through choices concerning trade union membership and activities. The analysis helps us approach the contradictory situation found in the three companies in which all employees benefit from considerable exploitation of certain groups of production and service workers. Our research may be seen as a contribution to discussions and further research on the stratification of workers in a neoliberal context and on the challenges facing trade unions in the setting of growing poverty and precarity.

Choosing Teaching as a Career: Perspective of Pre-Service Teachers in Cameroon

The Higher Teachers’ Training Colleges (HTTCs) and Higher Teachers’ Technical Training Colleges (HTTTCs) in Cameroon prepare all teachers seeking to be employed within the education service in Cameroon. In the last decade, Ecole Normale Superieur (ENS) and Ecole Normale Superieur d’Enseignement Technique (ENSET)’s enrolments for initial teacher preparation programs have grown significantly, with peaks in numbers during the recession years. There is also some evidence of attrition when beginning teachers complete their 3-year courses with the Ministry of Higher Education, which sponsors their teacher education program. This research sought to investigate the principal determining factors that are extrinsic, intrinsic and altruistic to choosing teaching as a career in Cameroon. It also investigated the expectations and the plans of pre-service teachers in Cameroon. The study was carried out within a duration of 6 months with a total of 210 (125 females and 85 males) teacher trainees in their first year, involved in the study. The types of motivation when choosing teaching as a career were studied using ‘Teaching Career Choice Scale’. The model of motivation types was supplemented by subscales: Influenced by others, Career growth, motivation and alternative choice. The findings of the study revealed that male and female student teachers have similar motives in selecting teaching as a career. The mean scores for both genders were closely related. For altruistic factors, the mean ranges respectively for males and females were 32.41 and 32.26. Extrinsic factors stood at 40.18 and 37.06 respectively. Intrinsic and altruistic factors motivated teachers the less, scoring a mean range of 26.07 and 26.14. This paper also discussed the findings in relation to wider issues concerning gender, and drew conclusions which may be helpful to policy-makers and institutions in the recruitment of students into pre-service teacher training.

Nicaragua

Nicaragua faces an acute crisis as the COVID-19 shock comes on top of a two- year recession. So far, the speed of transmission of the pandemic in Nicaragua, in terms of officially confirmed cases, has been slower than in neighboring countries, but this may understate the true spread of the disease. The pandemic is expected to produce the third year of consecutive recession and lead to large fiscal and external financing needs given the impact of voluntary distancing and regional and global spillovers. The very limited fiscal space, eroded by the ongoing recession and the limited external financing, constrains the authorities’ ability to self-finance the emergency response.

Households Health Expenditure in Interannual Correlation With Public Health Expenditure in Greece.

The aim of this article is to investigate the relationship between the public and the private health expenditure (macroeconomic and microeconomic approach) over time and within the recession and austerity period in Greece, in order to find out whether the strict Memorandum health policies pass, influence, or go along with the health expenditure to the final consumer, i.e., the health services user. In this context, by using econometric tools, such as multiple regression and cointegration analysis on the raw microdata of Household Budget Surveys from 1987/88 up to 2018, as well as by using data of public expenditure of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development–Health Statistics 2019 in the Stata version 13, the study compares the variation of household and public health expenditures before and after the financial crisis in Greece and also examines the correlation between the two variables. The analysis demonstrated that the Greek household health expenditure (HHE) was rapidly increasing during the period 1988–2008, and afterward, it started decreasing. Moreover, the total private and the total public health expenditures seem to have a bidirectional long-run relationship and significant cointegration. The same was observed regarding the public expenditure and household medical services expenditure, as well as pharmaceuticals. Furthermore, the results indicate that over the years of recession, the monthly HHE decreases, due to the confiscation of middle-class income, which led to consumerism restrictions. However, as households are now spending a bigger portion of their shrunken income for health (as health is an inelastic commodity), HHE, as a proportion of total private expenditure, has eventually risen.