Recent Range Contraction Research Articles

Shall we go to the mountains or to the sea for the winter holidays? Occurrence drivers and cultural relevance of the climate-vulnerable Snow Bunting Plectrophenax nivalis in Italy

The non-breeding distribution and ecology of many migratory songbirds are often poorly studied, but very relevant for their conservation in a changing climate. The Snow Bunting is the most northerly breeding passerine worldwide, and winters in temperate/temperate-cold areas. Characterised by specialisation for cold climate and strong migratory connectivity, it underwent a recent range contraction and is declining because of rising winter temperatures. Investigating its migration and wintering distribution and ecology is relevant to understand the possible impacts of climate change. We used citizen science records to describe and model the species distribution during migration and winter in Italy, and evaluated its cultural relevance. Snow Buntings occur in Italy in November-mid April, mostly clustered in northern and, particularly, north-eastern regions (coasts and plateaus in mountain regions); all the observations involving >12 individuals occurred at a single site in the Lessinia plateau. The elevation pattern of observations (both during winter and migration) showed a bimodal distribution (mostly at the sea level and in middle-elevation mountains, peaking around 1500 m asl). Species Distribution Models showed that the most suitable areas largely coincide with the areas from where most observations occurred, and were similar during winter and migration. Such areas are characterised by relatively cold and dry climates, and by flat or gentle sloping terrain largely occupied by open or semi-open habitats (grassland, pastures, sandy habitats). Snow Buntings had a much higher occurrence rates in social media/networks than other bunting species, indicating that nature recreationists have a particular preference for this species, which can be used as a flagship species. The species will likely suffer from ongoing climate variation, and preserving suitable open landscapes, with grassland-dominated habitats, is key to the maintenance of suitable stop-over and wintering sites. At the same time, this would also benefit many declining breeding species.

Modeling the impacts of a changing and disturbed environment on an endangered beluga whale population

Climate change and disturbance from human activities are key threats facing many wildlife populations worldwide. The ability to quantify the effects of such threats on individual health and population dynamics is critical for effective management and conservation. We used Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP), a method for implementing state-dependent life history theory, to explore the impacts of changes in prey availability and anthropogenic disturbance on survival and reproductive success of Cook Inlet belugas (Delphinapterus leucas, CIB), an endangered and isolated population in decline. We predicted behavioral decisions (whether to forage, travel to a new location, or rest) of pregnant CIBs within a spatially and seasonally dynamic prey landscape. We used those decisions to explore time-activity budgets and spatial use under a variety of hypothetical environmental scenarios and estimate the resulting impacts on body condition and vital rates. In all scenarios, foraging activity was highest during summer to capitalize on abundant prey, which in the model was assumed to be eulachon (Thaleichthys pacificus) and salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.). This resulted in large increases in blubber reserves that pregnant CIBs relied on during October to April when prey was assumed to be less abundant. Prey availability outside of summer months was still critical, as it either exacerbated or buffered against reductions in prey availability during summer months. Spatial predictions of habitat use indicated that pregnant CIBs should forage in areas used historically that now appear to be abandoned, suggesting that prey availability alone is unlikely to explain the recent range contraction of CIBs to upper Cook Inlet. Reductions in prey availability from late spring to early fall adversely affected vital rates, but intermittent disturbances that resulted in lost foraging opportunities, such as those caused by anthropogenic activities during the ice-free season, had little impact on body condition or vital rates if prey were abundant during the summer and early fall. Accurate assessment of the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on CIBs requires robust data on both disturbances and year-round prey availability, as intermittent disturbances adversely affected survival and reproductive success when they occurred in environments with reduced prey availability. Our model represents an initial effort to fill a critical information gap for informing CIB management decisions, providing insights into conditions under which reductions in vital rates might be expected and highlighting key data needed to increase the applicability of the model to this endangered population.

Drivers of intraspecific differentiation of an alpine cold‐tolerant herb, Notopterygium oviforme: Roles of isolation by distance and ecological factors

AbstractDetermining the mechanisms that drive phenotypic and genetic divergence by species has been a central topic in evolutionary biology for many years. However, the relative contributions of isolation by distance (IBD) and environment factors to species divergence are largely unknown in perennial herbs in East Asia. In this study, we collected population genetic samples of the cold‐tolerant perennial herb Notopterygium oviforme R. H. Shan in central China. We integrated the population transcriptomes, whole chloroplast genomes, genotyping‐by‐sequencing, microsatellite markers, and ecological factors to determine the relative contributions of geography, climate, and soil factors to genetic, chemical, and phenotypic divergence. A clear genetic distinction was identified between the West Qinling and East Qinling Mountains geographical groups of N. oviforme based on various molecular datasets. Interestingly, obvious niche conservation might have been responsible for the similarity of most of the leaf functional traits in the two groups. Multiple matrix regression with randomization analysis showed that the spatial intraspecific divergence pattern was mainly due to IBD rather than isolation by environment. In addition, transcriptomic expression divergence and some ecological factors have played key roles in intraspecific lineage differentiation. Approximate Bayesian Computation showed that both lineages have experienced historical population expansion and recent range contraction. Molecular dating suggested that intraspecific divergence was closely associated with dramatic uplifts of the Qinling Mountains in East Asia. These results demonstrate that geographical, geological, and environmental factors together shaped cryptic intraspecific diversification and shifts in the population dynamics of the perennial cold‐tolerant herb N. oviforme.

Legacy of supervolcanic eruptions on population genetic structure of brown kiwi

Supervolcanoes are volcanoes capable of mega-colossal eruptions that emit more than 1,000km3 of ash and other particles.1 The earth's most recent mega-colossal eruption was the Oruanui eruption of the Taupo supervolcano 25,580 years before present (YBP) on the central North Island of New Zealand.2 This eruption blanketed major swaths of the North Island in thick layers of ash and igneous rock,2,3 devastating habitats and likely causing widespread population extinctions.4-7 An additional devastating super-colossal eruption (>100km3) of the Taupo supervolcano occurred approximately 1,690 YBP.8 The impacts of such massive but ephemeral natural disasters on contemporary population genetic structure remain underexplored. Here, we combined data for 4,951 SNPs with spatially explicit demographic and coalescent models within an approximate Bayesian computation framework to test the drivers of genetic structure in brown kiwi (Apteryx mantelli). Our results strongly support the importance of eruptions of the Taupo supervolcano in restructuring pre-existing geographic patterns of population differentiation and genetic diversity. Range shifts due to climatic oscillations-a frequent explanation for genetic structure9-are insufficient to fully explain the empirical data. Meanwhile, recent range contraction and fragmentation due to historically documented anthropogenic habitat alteration adds no explanatory power to our models. Our results support a major role for cycles of destruction and post-volcanic recolonization in restructuring the population genomic landscape of brown kiwi and highlight how ancient and ephemeral mega-disasters may leave a lasting legacy on patterns of intraspecific genetic variation.

Response to thermal and hydric regimes point to differential inter- and intraspecific vulnerability of tropical amphibians to climate warming.

In Puerto Rico, an island threatened by climate warming, only one of two species of frogs that share part of their distribution has undergone a recent range contraction to higher elevations. We questioned if differences in their physiological response to temperature and dehydration might explain this distributional change. We studied a lowland and a highland population of Eleutherodactylus coqui, a widespread generalist, and E. portoricensis, an endangered species that is currently found only above 600m. We compared various physiological aspects: operative temperature; temperature selection; critical temperatures; and their response to jumping performance tests at various thermal and hydric regimes. Results revealed that E. portoricensis had the highest CTmin and lowest CTmax and selected a cooler range of temperatures from the experimental gradient. Jumping performance increased with temperature for the three populations until attaining maximum performance. Afterwards, performance dropped drastically until reaching CTmax. Dehydration had a negative effect on performance for both species, particularly on maximum performance. This effect was greatest for E. portoricensis, followed by high-elevation E. coqui. The significantly greater thermo-hydric physiological limitations of E. portoricensis may explain its recent range contraction, potentially, as a response to climate warming. Low-elevation E. coqui had the lowest operative warming tolerance and was the only population to select temperatures like those encountered in their environment, indicating it may be narrowly adapted to local thermal conditions and thus, also vulnerable to climate change. Our results point towards plasticity in the response of E. coqui to varying climatic conditions, and present evidence of different physiological responses between closely related species at the same locality. This work highlights the importance of studying the combined effects of temperature and hydration to understand the response of ectotherms to warming environments and presents further evidence that desiccation may be a limiting factor determining which species may survive.

Broadening Predictive Understanding of Species’ Range Responses to Climate Change: The Case of Aloidendron dichotomum

Concerns have been raised about attribution of species range shifts to anthropogenic climate change. Species paleo-range projections are emerging as a means to broaden understanding of range shifts and could be applied to assist in attribution. Apparent recent range contraction in the Quiver Tree (Aloidendron dichotomum (Masson) Klopper and Gideon F.Sm) has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but this has been challenged. We simulated the paleo- and future geographic range of A. dichotomum under changing climate using species distribution models (SDMs) to provide a broader perspective on its range dynamics. Ensemble modelling of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene, current, and projected 2070 time periods simulates a paleo-historical poleward expansion of suitable bioclimatic space for this species under natural climate change post-LGM, and projects an eastward shift towards 2070. During the LGM, suitable bioclimatic space for A. dichotomum was simulated to be restricted to the equatorward part of its current range. During the Pleistocene/mid-Holocene climate transition period, the species’ range is predicted to have expanded significantly polewards at an average rate of 0.4 km per decade, assuming constant tracking of its optimal climatic niche. By 2070, suitable bioclimatic space is projected to expand further eastward into the summer rainfall region of South Africa, and contract in its equatorward reaches. Simulated post-LGM shifts roughly match expectations based on preliminary phylogenetic information, further supporting the attribution of current population declines to anthropogenic climate change drivers. Equatorward populations are required to migrate south-eastwards at a rate roughly 15 times faster than that calculated for the LGM/mid-Holocene climate transition period to avoid local extirpation. A preliminary analysis of range-wide genetic variation reveals a cline of variation, with generally higher levels in the central and more northerly part of the species distribution, as expected from the proposed paleo-range of the species. A more detailed analysis of the species’ phylogeographic history could be used to test the proposed paleo-range dynamics presented here, and if confirmed, would provide strong support for the use of this species as an indicator of anthropogenic climate change and a powerful case study for testing the implementation of conservation actions.

Will predicted positive effects of climate change be enough to reverse declines of the regionally Endangered Natterjack toad in Ireland?

The global amphibian crisis is driven by a range of stressors including disease, habitat loss, and environmental contamination. The role of climate change remains poorly studied and is likely to influence environmental suitability, ranges, reproduction, and phenology. This study aimed to characterize the bioclimatic‐habitat niche space of the Natterjack toad (Epidalea calamita) throughout its European range and to assess the impact of climate on the toad's environmental suitability and breeding behavior in Ireland, where declines in recent decades have resulted in it being regionally Red‐Listed as Endangered. To address these questions, we first identified which climate variables best predict the current bioclimatic niche, fecundity (number of eggs deposit), and phenology. We then used future climate projections for two time periods (2041–2060 and 2061–2080) and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to predict how the species range, fecundity, and phenology would change. The European range of the species was found to be limited by winter temperatures while its bioclimatic niche varied markedly throughout its range. Species distribution models suggested projected climate change will increase environmental suitability for the species throughout its range, including Ireland, but most notably in Scandinavia and the Baltic. Fecundity in Ireland was greatest during the cool temperatures of spring and after wet winters associated with ephemeral breeding pool availability. Warm, dry summers in the preceding year influenced fecundity the following spring indicative of carryover effects. Initiation of spawning was driven by spring temperatures, not rainfall. Projections suggested future climate change may increase fecundity in Ireland while spawning may commence earlier throughout the 21st century especially under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5). Despite recent range contraction and population declines due to habitat deterioration, the Natterjack toad, if subject to a suitable species conservation strategy, has the potential to be a climate change winner, notwithstanding unpredictable habitat and land‐use change, sea‐level rise inducing coastal erosion, changes in invertebrate prey abundance, and disease.

Under the radar: genetic assessment of Rio Grande Shiner (Notropis jemezanus) and Speckled Chub (Macrhybopsis aestivalis), two Rio Grande basin endemic cyprinids that have experienced recent range contractions

The Rio Grande drainage of the southwestern United States and Mexico has undergone intense anthropogenic alteration by water diversions, extraction and associated habitat changes. These alterations have disproportionately impacted the pelagic broadcast spawning guild of minnows (pelagophils). Several Rio Grande endemic pelagophils, including the co-occurring Rio Grande Shiner (Notropis jemezanus) and Speckled Chub (Macrhybopsis aestivalis), have experienced dramatic recent range-wide declines yet have slipped under the radar of conservation efforts. The status of N. jemezanus and M. aestivalis in the Rio Grande and Pecos River was evaluated and standing genetic variation was characterized. Genetic evidence indicates that populations of both species found in the Rio Grande and Pecos River are genetically distinct. Additionally, 159 outlier loci were identified in M. aestivalis suggesting possible local adaptation in the Rio Grande and Pecos River populations. Though range-wide genetic data are limited, N. jemezanus populations in both rivers harbor considerable genetic diversity. Mitochondrial data from both taxa are consistent with a history of secondary contact between formerly isolated populations with deeply divergent haplotypes found within the Rio Grande and Pecos River populations of N. jemezanus and within the Rio Grande population of M. aestivalis. Extensive survey efforts in the lower Rio Grande and its tributaries in Texas document significant range contraction and near extirpation of N. jemezanus from this part of the basin; highlighting the need for immediate action to protect the species.

Paleogenome Reveals Genetic Contribution of Extinct Giant Panda to Extant Populations

Historically, the giant panda was widely distributed from northern China to southwestern Asia [1]. As a result of range contraction and fragmentation, extant individuals are currently restricted to fragmented mountain ranges on the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, where they are distributed among three major population clusters [2]. However, little is known about the genetic consequences of this dramatic range contraction. For example, were regions where giant pandas previously existed occupied by ancestors of present-day populations, or were these regions occupied by genetically distinct populations that are now extinct? If so, is there any contribution of these extinct populations to the genomes of giant pandas living today? To investigate these questions, we sequenced the nuclear genome of an ∼5,000-year-old giant panda from Jiangdongshan, Tengchong County in Yunnan Province, China. We find that this individual represents a genetically distinct population that diverged prior to the diversification of modern giant panda populations. We find evidence of differential admixture with this ancient population among modern individuals originating from different populations as well as within the same population. We also find evidence for directional gene flow, which transferred alleles from the ancient population into the modern giant panda lineages. A variable proportion of the genomes of extant individuals is therefore likely derived from the ancient population represented by our sequenced individual. Although extant giant panda populations retain reasonable genetic diversity, our results suggest that this represents only part of the genetic diversity this species harbored prior to its recent range contractions.

Palaeogenome Reveals Genetic Contribution of Extinct Giant Panda to Extant Populations

Historically, the giant panda was widely distributed from northern China to southwestern Asia. As a result of range contraction and fragmentation, extant individuals are currently restricted to fragmented mountain ranges on the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, where they are distributed among three major population clusters. However, little is known about the genetic consequences of this dramatic range contraction. For example, were regions where giant pandas previously existed occupied by ancestors of present-day populations, or were these regions occupied by genetically distinct populations which are now extinct? If so, is there any contribution of these extinct populations to the genomes of giant pandas living today? To investigate these questions, we sequenced the nuclear genome of a 5,025 ± 35 years old giant panda from Jiangdongshan, Tengchong County in Yunnan Province, China to approximately 1.2-fold coverage. We find that this individual represents a genetically distinct population that diverged prior to the diversification of modern giant panda populations. We find evidence of differential admixture with this ancient population among modern individuals originating from different populations as well as within the same population. We also find evidence for directional gene flow, which transferred alleles from the ancient population into the modern giant panda lineages. A variable proportion of the genomes of extant individuals is therefore likely derived from the ancient population represented by our sequenced individual. Although extant giant panda populations retain reasonable genetic diversity, our results suggest that this represents only part of the genetic diversity this species harbored prior to its recent range contractions.

Genetic diversity of Ceiba pentandra in Colombian seasonally dry tropical forest: Implications for conservation and management

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are one of the most degraded vegetation types worldwide and in Colombia <10% of the original cover remains. This calls for urgent conservation measures and restoration efforts. Understanding the genetic diversity and structure of tree species is crucial to inform not only conservation measures, but also sourcing of planting materials to ensure the long-term success of tree planting efforts, particularly in light of climate change. We assessed the genetic diversity distribution and structure of Ceiba pentandra from twelve representative locations of SDTF in Colombia, and how they may have been shaped by past climatic changes and human influence. We found three different genetic groups which may be the result of differentiation due to isolation of the Caribbean region, the Upper Cauca River Valley and the Patía River Valley in pre-glacial times. Range expansion of SDTF during the last glacial period, followed by more recent range contraction during the Holocene can explain the current distribution and mixture of genetic groups across contemporary STDF fragments. Most of the sampled localities showed heterozygosity scores close to Hardy–Weinberg expectations. Only two sites, among which the Patía River valley, an area with high conservation value, displayed significantly positive values of inbreeding coefficient, potentially affecting their survival and use as seed sources. While the effects of climate change might threaten C. pentandra populations across their current distribution ranges, opportunities remain for the in situ persistence of the most genetically diverse and unique ones. Based on our findings we identify priority areas for the in situ conservation of C. pentandra in Colombian SDTF and propose a pragmatic approach to guide the selection of appropriate planting material for use in restoration.

Recent range contractions in the globally threatened Pyrenean desman highlight the importance of stream headwater refugia

AbstractFreshwater ecosystems are among the most threatened in the world, and downstream reaches of stream networks are often the most affected by multiple anthropogenic stressors. In these circumstances, many species currently restricted to stream headwaters may represent remnants of once larger populations, though this is generally difficult to ascertain due to limited historical data. Here, we document a case of range contraction into headwaters of the globally threatened Pyrenean desman Galemys pyrenaicus, a species endemic to South‐western Europe, from surveys carried out in 1993–96 and 2014–15. Geostatistical logistic mixed models were used to relate the probabilities of desman occurrence and extinction to environmental variables in 74 sites within two watersheds in NE Portugal, while controlling for linear (Euclidean) and hydrologic spatial dependencies. In 1993–96, desmans were recorded at 85.1% of sites, and their presence was positively related to stream order and slope. In 2014–15, desmans were only found at 31.1% of sites, and their presence was positively related to slope steepness and negatively to stream order and maximum temperature of the warmest month. The extinction rate across periods was 63.5%, and the probability of extinction increased with stream order and declined with slope steepness. Maps of predicted distribution and extinction indicated that while the species was widely distributed in the first period, it largely disappeared thereafter from the main rivers and the largest tributaries, persisting mostly in stream headwaters in more mountainous areas. The severe decline found in ours and other studies suggests that the conservation status of the Pyrenean desman may need to be upgraded, and highlights the importance of headwater streams for its conservation. Furthermore, this study supports the view that headwater streams may be increasingly important for biodiversity conservation in modified river systems, favouring the permanence of remnant, albeit fragmented populations.

Comparative phylogeography highlights the double-edged sword of climate change faced by arctic- and alpine-adapted mammals.

Recent studies suggest that alpine and arctic organisms may have distinctly different phylogeographic histories from temperate or tropical taxa, with recent range contraction into interglacial refugia as opposed to post-glacial expansion out of refugia. We use a combination of phylogeographic inference, demographic reconstructions, and hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation to test for phylodemographic concordance among five species of alpine-adapted small mammals in eastern Beringia. These species (Collared Pikas, Hoary Marmots, Brown Lemmings, Arctic Ground Squirrels, and Singing Voles) vary in specificity to alpine and boreal-tundra habitat but share commonalities (e.g., cold tolerance and nunatak survival) that might result in concordant responses to Pleistocene glaciations. All five species contain a similar phylogeographic disjunction separating eastern and Beringian lineages, which we show to be the result of simultaneous divergence. Genetic diversity is similar within each haplogroup for each species, and there is no support for a post-Pleistocene population expansion in eastern lineages relative to those from Beringia. Bayesian skyline plots for four of the five species do not support Pleistocene population contraction. Brown Lemmings show evidence of late Quaternary demographic expansion without subsequent population decline. The Wrangell-St. Elias region of eastern Alaska appears to be an important zone of recent secondary contact for nearctic alpine mammals. Despite differences in natural history and ecology, similar phylogeographic histories are supported for all species, suggesting that these, and likely other, alpine- and arctic-adapted taxa are already experiencing population and/or range declines that are likely to synergistically accelerate in the face of rapid climate change. Climate change may therefore be acting as a double-edged sword that erodes genetic diversity within populations but promotes divergence and the generation of biodiversity.

Did the expansion of C4 plants drive extinction and massive range contraction of micromammals? Inferences from food preference and historical biogeography of pikas

The expansion of C4 plants is thought to have profound effects on the faunal turnover of large mammals during the latest Miocene. However, it is unclear whether this event also induced extinction and range contraction of small mammals. Pikas (Ochotonidae) are highly adapted to arctic or alpine environments, and are considered ideal indicators in biochronology. Previous studies have demonstrated that large numbers of ochotonides were widely geographically distributed in the middle Miocene, although most went extinct in the late Miocene. It is uncertain whether their extinction was induced by the accelerated expansion of C4 plants. A comprehensive review of the worldwide fossil occurrence in Ochotonidae and a detailed analysis of its historical biogeography are also lacking. Here, we categorize plants that are selected by extant pikas for food and hay piles according to their photosynthesis pathway. Fossil records of Ochotonidae are also reviewed. The divergence time within Ochotona is estimated using multiple fossil calibrators and the combined matrix of two mitochondrial genes. We also infer the historical biogeography of Ochotona using event based methods (S-DIVA, Bayes-DIVA and Maximum Parsimony). The expansion of C4 plants in the late Miocene may have resulted in the extinction and range contraction of pikas. This hypothesis is supported by the prominent preference of C3 plants in extant pikas. The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is identified as the most likely ancestral center or origin of extant Ochotona. Evolution of the pikas' geographical range shows a strong concordance with the global climate and paleoecological change. Their historical extinction and recent range contraction, as well as future survival prospects, appear to be closely associated with climate-driven vegetation changes in their habitats.

Declining willow ptarmigan populations: The role of habitat structure and community dynamics

The recent range contractions and population declines of many grouse species worldwide have been attributed to loss and fragmentation of their habitats, although the empirical evidence for the actual drivers is often weak. In case of the willow ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus in Fennoscandia, ungulate overbrowsing of willows has been hypothesized to exert such negative habitat-related impacts. Moreover, a steep population decline of willow ptarmigan in southern Fennoscandia has recently been attributed to community interactions linking the fate of the willow ptarmigan to a change in keystone tundra rodent populations. Community and habitat factors may also interact in their impact on willow ptarmigan abundance. Here we assess whether willow thicket structural characteristics sensitive to ungulate browsing impacted willow ptarmigan habitat occupancy and whether such impacts depended on small rodent population dynamics. We employed an extensive survey approach spatially encompassing three riparian tundra regions and covering the phases of increase, peak and crash of the small rodent cycle. Willow ptarmigan habitat occupancy increased with the areal extent of willow thickets, whereas it decreased with increasing degree of thicket fragmentation (i.e. habitat shredding). Both of these effects were consistent with ungulate over-browsing impacting willow ptarmigan abundance negatively. Over the 4-year study period, willow ptarmigan habitat occupancy declined steeply independently of spatial variation in willow thicket areal extent and fragmentation. Moreover, the expected increase in ptarmigan populations during the increase/peak phase of the rodent cycle was not observed. Thus although our study provides support for the hypothesis that intense ungulate browsing negatively impacts willow ptarmigan, our study also suggests that causes of the current steep decline of ptarmigan populations in northern Fennoscandia should be sought in factors other than habitat fragmentation and changed rodent population dynamics.

Geographic variation in temperature tolerance as an indicator of potential population responses to climate change

The temperature tolerances of individuals in geographically separated populations of a single species can be used as indicators of each population's potential to persist or become extinct in response to climate change. We evaluated the population-level variation in temperature tolerance in populations of several marine invertebrate taxa, including bryozoans, tunicates, bivalves, and gastropods, separated by distances of < 200 km to > 5000 km. We then combined physiological thermotolerance data with current temperature data and climate change predictions to predict which of these populations may be most vulnerable to future changes. In a trans-continental comparison of four subtidal epibenthic species, we show that populations on the east coast of the United States, which experienced higher habitat temperatures than those on the west coast, had higher thermal tolerances but lived closer to individuals' tolerance limits. Similarly, temperature tolerances varied between western and eastern Atlantic populations of the mussel Mytilus edulis; however, these differences only emerged after repeated exposures to high temperatures. Furthermore, the less thermotolerant M. edulis population in the western Atlantic was more susceptible to temperature increases, as evidenced by a recent range contraction. Thus, for both the subtidal epibenthic and intertidal mussel species, we identified the western Atlantic as a ‘hot spot’ of populations susceptible to climate change compared to those in the eastern Pacific and eastern Atlantic, respectively. Finally, because current tolerances are not the sole indicators of individuals' abilities to cope with temperature increases, we also assessed the possibility for acclimatization to facilitate the persistence of populations via the buffering of temperature effects. We show that, for four populations of intertidal Littorina snail species in the northwest Atlantic, most populations were able to overcome geographic differences in temperature tolerance via acclimation. When acclimation capacity is low, the potential for “rescue” may depend on the particular species' life-history strategy and dispersal ability. For example, although individuals from the coldest-adapted population of Littorina littorea were unable to acclimate as quickly as those from more southern populations, this species has a pelagic larval stage and, thus, the greatest dispersal potential of these littorines. Together, these studies highlight the importance of considering variation in temperature tolerance between populations within species to improve the forecasting of changes in the abundances and distributions of species in response to climate warming.

Comparison of genetic variation and differentiation using microsatellite markers among three rare threatened and one widespread toad lily species of Tricyrtis section Flavae (Convallariaceae) in Japan

AbstractGenetic diversities were examined using six microsatellite markers amplifiable in three rare and one widespread species of Tricyrtis section Flavae, which are endemic to Japan. Contrary to a general expectation, the three rare species, Tricyrtis flava, Tricyrtis ohsumiensis and Tricyrtis perfoliata, have comparable genetic variation at the species level to that of the widespread Tricyrtis nana. This is probably because T. nana has not sufficiently recovered genetic diversity from the bottleneck at speciation or because recent range contractions have occurred in the three rare species. Genetic diversity at the population level was smaller in the putative selfing species T. nana than in the other three outcrossing species. Compared with a preceding study using allozyme markers, the genetic diversity in microsatellite loci was considerably larger, probably resulting from higher mutation rates at the microsatellite loci. Owing to the high genetic diversity of the microsatellite markers, genetic differentiation among populations could be estimated even in T. nana with little allozyme polymorphism.

Allozyme variability in the Italian wolf (Canis lupus) population

Multilocus protein electrophoresis was used to estimate genetic variability in a sample of 38 Italian wolves (Canis lupus). Percentage of polymorphic loci was p = 10.0 per cent (four polymorphic loci out of 40 examined), and average observed heterozygosity was Ho = 0.028. Genotypes were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Electrophoretic analysis does not indicate a significant reduction of genetic variability at nuclear gene loci following at least one century of isolation from other European populations and demographic fluctuations suggested by recent range contraction and expansion. These findings are compared with published allozyme and mitochondrial DNA data for dogs, Canadian wolves, and introgressed wolf x coyote populations from Minnesota and Isle Royale (U.S.A.).