Recent Movements Research Articles

Predicting Analysts’ S and P 500 Earnings Forecast Errors and Stock Market Returns using Macroeconomic Data and Nowcasts

This study scrutinizes the quality of “bottom-up” forecasts of near-term S and P 500 Composite earnings, derived by aggregating analysts’ forecasts for individual firm-level earnings. We examine whether forecasts are broadly consistent with current macroeconomic conditions reflected in economists’ near-term outlook and other available data. To the contrary, we find that a simple macroeconomic model of aggregate S and P 500 earnings, coupled with GDP forecasts from the Blue Chip Survey and recent dollar exchange rate movements, can predict large and statistically significant errors in equity analysts’ bottom-up forecasts for S and P 500 earnings in the current quarter and the quarter ahead. This finding is robust to the requirement that our econometric model is calibrated using only data available at the time of forecast. Moreover, the discrepancy between the macro-model-based earnings forecasts and analysts’ forecasts has predictive power for 3-month-ahead stock returns

The Relationship between the Time Difference of Formation Water Infiltration Rate, Tectonic Movement, and the Formation Pressure Coefficient

The study of formation pressure holds great significance for both exploration and development. The formation pressure coefficient is a crucial parameter in geology, encompassing various aspects. Numerous models exist to explore its influencing factors, yet they remain highly controversial. Our research has gathered data on formation pressure states and tectonic movement rates from dozens of large sedimentary basins worldwide. We delved into the patterns of formation pressure changes during basin deposition, subsidence, and tectonic uplift, taking into account the permeability of formation water. The findings reveal that during the Neogene and beyond, rapid deposition or tectonic uplift can cause the infiltration of formation water to lag behind tectonic movements, resulting in overpressure. Conversely, if recent tectonic movements are slow, formation water will complete its infiltration process ahead of tectonic changes, bringing the formation pressure to a hydrostatic state. Consequently, we have concluded that abnormal formation pressure primarily depends on the rate of tectonic movements during the Neogene and Quaternary periods. This study also proposes four formation pressure models, paving the way for a comprehensive understanding of formation pressure within a unified theoretical framework.

Aurel Stroe: III. Klaviersonate – Im Palimpsest (1991). Muster musikalischer Gestaltung

"The aim underlying the analysis is to highlight patterns of the composer’s mature musical thinking through. Accordingly, the case study of his Piano Sonata No. 3 captured the implementation of the poetic idea of palimpsest at different levels of musical micro- and macrostructure. Although the component parts come from three different periods, they form a unified whole not only through the uniform projection of the macrostructure, but also at the micro level through the similar models of architectural and thematic processing. While Stroe uses the variation technique on a single thematic element in the movements composed in 1947 and 1957, in the more recent movements from 1991, parts three and five, he brings several different thematic elements in the discourse: see the five elements of the first movement; the four voices of the second movement; the two accords and one cluster of the final movement. At the same time, he diversifies the modeling patterns: see the free architecture of the first movement; the virtuosity of the polyphonic form in the palimpsest of the second movement; the technique of development by symmetrical addition in the last movement, etc. It is a creative contemporary mindset that develops logically structured models of musical architecture."

Analyzing recent deformation in Wadi Hagul, Eastern Desert, Egypt, via advanced remote sensing and geodetic data processing

Abstract The Wadi Hagul region in the eastern desert of Egypt is facing seismic hazards and increased human activity. This study uses remote sensing and geodetic methods to monitor and analyze recent deformation in the area. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data from the Sentinel-1A satellite and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data were combined to track surface movements and deformations accurately. The study analyzed InSAR data from February 4, 2020, to February 07, 2024, and GNSS data from the Wadi Hagul geodetic network established in July 2022 and monitored until January 2024. Despite the relatively short GNSS monitoring period, it provided valuable insights into recent deformation trends. By integrating data from ten GNSS stations, including International Geodetic stations (IGS), and InSAR scenes from the Sentinel-1A mission, the study estimated recent ground deformation in the region. The main objectives were to analyze recent crustal movements by identifying spatial and temporal patterns of deformation and assess implications for geological processes. In Key Findings, horizontal movement fluctuates between 0.5 and 2.5 ± 0.1 mm annually across the geodetic network. The estimated velocity of the area was 1.5–2 ± 0.5 mm per year. Integrating GNSS and InSAR data helped calculate movement rates along fault lines and create a fault map. In conclusion, the results suggest that while current deformation rates are moderate, they could increase significantly due to human activity, leading to higher seismic activity and potential earthquakes. Limiting human activity in the region is advisable to prevent negative impacts on nearby populated areas.

How Do We Achieve Person-Centered Care across Health Care Settings? Expanding Ideological Perspectives into Practice to Advance Person-Centered Care

Person or patient-centered care (PCC) is touted as the gold standard in geriatric medical care across care settings. However, despite more than 3 decades of research and practice initiatives, it remains a challenge to consistently implement PCC that fully places the individual at the center of care planning and the delivery process. The lack of universal implementation of PCC, we argue, may be in large part due to the use of multiple terms and ideologies leading to an inability to coordinate efforts across medical settings. This article reviews recent ideological PCC movements (“What Matters to You,” the Age Friendly Health Systems 4 Ms/5 Ms, “Whole Health,” Patient Priorities Care, and Medicare/Medicaid person-centered care initiatives), provides a discussion of how these ideologies are implemented in a nursing home setting through preference-based care and provides implications for coordinated integration of PCC across all care settings now and into the future. We argue for the need to draw on known information and validated methodologies for assessing and implementing PCC to collectively move beyond an ideological representation of the concept into an integrated model of PCC for all older adults receiving care.

Identifying the Sylvian Triangle on CT angiography: A technique for detecting distal middle cerebral artery occlusions.

Medium vessel occlusions (MeVOs), defined as occlusion of the M2/M3 and A2/A3 segments of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) and anterior cerebral artery, can be challenging to visualize on CT angiography (CTA) and MR angiography (MRA), given the anatomic complexity of the mid- and distal intracranial vasculature and smaller vessel caliber (Leary MC, Kidwell CS, Villablanca JP, et al. Validation of computed tomographic MCA "dot" sign: an angiographic correlation study. Stroke 2003; 34: 2636-2640; Luijten SPR, Wolff L, Duvekot MHC, et al. Diagnostic performance of an algorithm for automated large vessel occlusion (LVO) detection on CTA. J Neurointerv Surg 2022; 14: 794-798). In turn, the appearance of a sudden vessel cutoff in these vascular distributions on CTA or MRA is not always straightforward and may represent true occlusion, variant anatomy, and/or artifact (Leary MC, Kidwell CS, Villablanca JP, et al. Validation of computed tomographic MCA "dot" sign: an angiographic correlation study. Stroke 2003; 34: 2636-2640; Luijten SPR, Wolff L, Duvekot MHC, et al. Diagnostic performance of an algorithm for automated LVO detection on CTA. J Neurointerv Surg 2022; 14: 794-798). Given the importance of rapidly establishing an accurate diagnosis in the setting of stroke, combined with recent clinical trials and movements promoting the efficacy of endovascular therapeutic approaches to treat MeVOs, it remains imperative to detect such occlusions accurately and quickly on imaging. In turn, we present five imaging patterns of the Sylvian Triangle on sagittal reformatted images from CTA Head examinations, which our practice has utilized to assess patency of the M2 and M3 divisions. This approach is rapidly deployable and can be utilized by radiology and non-radiology healthcare providers alike, thus facilitating rapid and accurate diagnosis of MeVO, timely evaluation of candidacy for endovascular therapy, and ultimately supporting favorable door-to-intervention time and successful patient outcomes.

Preliminary Notes toward a Destituent Art

This article argues that, by looking to the generalization of a certain kind of artistic or creative character in paradigms of work, there is a view onto a different kind of relationship between culture and militant action and fugitivity. Here, the term destituent art is proposed to sketch out a form of cultural production that does or might lay waste not only to institutional targets of critique but also to the structurally immanent belief in institutional reform that underlies the aesthetics of that critique. It is an invitation to reconsider some key myths that structure art discourse (even if they appear as objects of critique) and an appeal to read that discursivity as not just productive but potentially destituent. To do so, the author reads operaismo's rereading of Marx against Marxism alongside theorizations of destituent insurrection through the subject of the artist. Some recent social movements in New York City targeting art institutions are analyzed to consider this connection. Like Colectivo Situaciones’ discussion of destituent insurrection as a grammar that unifies surplus populations through their expressions of refusal (the riot, the strike, the commune) that are simultaneously modes of reorganizing forms of life, a destituent art would not signal a turn to a productive pessimism—that all creative work is already subsumed—but that the cultivation of destituent power actualizes and is actualized by the aesthetic production of places of action.

Prison overcrowding and ill-treatment: sentence reduction as a reparation measure. A view from Latin America and Europe.

In recent years mass protest movements have taken to the streets in many countries across the world. Despite strong international and domestic legal protections for the right to freedom of peaceful assembly and other fundamental human rights, entire assemblies are frequently labelled violent and less lethal weapons are used to disperse them. This article examines the weapons often used by police against public assemblies. Focusing on striking weapons (batons), chemical irri-tants, kinetic impact projectiles and stun grenades, the article uses examples from various countries to illustrate how these weapons are being used and the associated human rights and health impacts. Re-sults: Worrying trends identified include the use of dangerous or untested equipment, such as thermal foggers to deploy chemical irritants; the use of inherently abusive weapons, such as whips or sjam-boks; and the increasing use of certain types of munitions, specifically indiscriminate kinetic impact projectiles. The article seeks to support medical and legal professionals becoming more familiar with the weapons being used in the countries they practice in, the effects of those weapons, and clinical aspects in the presentation and care of those exposed.

The Intersection of Successful Aging and Family Caregiving.

For the millions of older adults who rely on the support of a family caregiver, successful aging is not an individual achievement but a cooperative process between a care receiver and a caregiver. Yet, family caregivers are rarely incorporated into theoretical models of successful aging. Family caregivers also play an essential role in recent healthcare delivery movements that seek to better align care delivery with successful aging. Greater reliance on family caregivers by the US healthcare system is occurring as an increasingly vocal constituency is tasking policymakers with developing and implementing federal and state health policies that would help build the national infrastructure needed to support them. This paper provides a critical discussion of how family caregivers actualize successful aging for older adults. We highlight the key role of family caregivers in healthcare delivery innovations aimed at facilitating successful aging and discuss policies that support family caregivers. As successful aging continues to evolve as a dominating framework in the literature, we conclude with key recommendations for how research, policy, and practice efforts in successful aging can be more inclusive and supportive of family caregivers.

Students’ Perceptions of and Preferences for assessment feedback in higher education: Implication for evaluators

The ability to communicate to students the extent of their strengths and weaknesses following assessment is a crucial element for high-quality teaching and learning. In this context it is referred to an assessment feedback. Feedbacks from assessments serve primarily as a means of favourably imparting developmental knowledge, i.e., assessing students' future work in order to facilitate learning. There has been a recent movement towards conceptualising assessment feedback as a relational and dialogic process; consequently, it is imperative to ascertain students' preferences and perceptions. The dedication of evaluators is vital to support learning advancement and guarantee the value of assessment comments. In order to ascertain students' opinions about and preferences for assessment feedback, this study presented the findings of a descriptive and inferential survey. The "Students' Perceptions of and Preferences for Assessment Feedback Scale" (SPPAFS), a 49-item structured questionnaire was utilised to gather responses from 300 undergraduate students who were sampled from three federal universities in the Southeast geopolitical zone of Nigeria. The study was directed by four research questions, and two hypotheses were examined at the significance level of p<.05. The findings supported the claim that students did not regularly receive assessment feedback by revealing that despite receiving high-quality feedback from assessments, lecturers at the institutions were not as eager or proactive in offering it to their students. It was established that since students perceive assessment feedback as crucial for their personal growth and learning, they hold positive and favourable views of it. Additionally, the students favour more conversational, individualized, and online device-based modes of evaluation feedback. It was suggested that in order to give assessment feedback in real time, evaluators and teachers should take advantage of technological advancements. This would enable even more customised assessment feedback that is geared towards the needs and learning preferences of each student.

Monthly Estimations in U.S. Residential Rental Markets and Affordability

Rental markets around the country have recently spiked, causing significant issues in terms of affordability and availability and even prompting talk of nationwide rent controls. The drivers of this recent phenomenon will almost certainly be parsed out in future research. However, there is a critical and pressing need for timely information on recent rent movements in the nation’s rental markets and their affordability. This brief provides information (projected rents, degree of over- or underpricing relative to historic trends, year-over-year rent change, and affordability of the average rental unit) for 100 U.S. residential rental markets. A sample of the April 2023 Miami metro market is provided in this brief to deliver guidance on these estimations. Monthly reports are currently provided in the Waller, Weeks and Johnson Rental Index. The goal of the index is to facilitate more informed decision making by consumers, real estate professionals, and policymakers.

(Re)Placing Personalis: A Study of Placement Reform and Self-Construction in Mission-Driven Contexts

Recent movements in higher education have opened many opportunities for writing program administrators to reform first-year writing placement procedures, including continued development and adaptation of Directed Self Placement (DSP) models alongside ongoing research into their potential to foster student agency and advance linguistic, racial, and social justice in the academy. Our study traces and compares the efforts of two writing program administrators to reform flawed placement processes at their two mission-driven liberal arts institutions—one, a small Lasallian university and Hispanic-serving Institution in Northern California; the other, a private research Jesuit university located in New York City. Using inter-institutional, grounded theory research, this study examines students' reflections on their placement choices to understand “substantive validity,” inquiring intentionally into ways that students self-locate with regard to their self-placement assessments and connecting to the mission-based language of personalis, what belongs to the person. Findings indicate that students use four rhetorical moves to personalize their placement: proliferating, riffing, importing, and qualifying. Specifically, the study calls into question current understandings of under-placement in DSP models, complicating DSP’s fundamentals of choice, guidance, and justice.

Read like a man: comparing narratives of masculinity in adolescent literature.

Recent movements like #MeToo and #TimesUp have surfaced and challenged ideas about masculinity in popular conversations. In particular, these ideas have centered around "toxic masculinity"-a version of masculinity that reflects stereotyped, dated, and even dangerous expectations for manhood. This notion of masculinity can be reinforced in a number of ways, especially through pop culture, where it runs the risk of becoming commonly accepted or normalized. This study evaluates the narratives of masculinity in three different novels that are marketed toward high school-aged students in the United States: Lord of the Flies; Gabi, A Girl in Pieces; and Aristotle and Dante Discover the Secrets of the Universe. Using a critical literacy lens, this study considers the symbols, behaviors, expectations, and meanings given to masculinity in and through each novel and considers the implications of this analysis for adolescent readership inside and outside of schooling. The study concludes that the more contemporary novels showcase a range of masculine portrayals, including positive, affirming versions of masculinity, compared to a more singular and pessimistic one found in a novel traditionally used in schools. Thus, the study concludes that formal schooling may be an important way to address and disrupt unhealthy versions of masculinity.

Action research to design a model for mediation in online discussion forums

Online discussion forums are potentially invaluable for developing learners’ higher order thinking skills through the power of writing and reflection in quality online learning spaces. In such forums, learners’ interactions are facilitated, or mediated, by instructors to create more meaningful and effective constructivist-based learning. Despite a wealth of instructor mediation theories and the recent global movement to online/blended teaching precipitated by COVID, few practical application mediation models exist. The purpose of the study was to (1) present a mediation strategy model for instructors, drawn from the analysis of an intervention program designed to develop higher order thinking, and (2) explore how those mediation strategies may be applied in these forums individually and collectively. Qualitative data were gathered through asynchronous forums, a post-survey, and my observation notes. Three existing content analysis instruments, the Interaction Analysis Model, Cognitive Dimension of Revised Bloom's Taxonomy, and Krathwohl's Affective Domain were used to translate participants’ forum interactions into quantitative data. I created an original coding framework to analyze instructional mediation strategies by generating categories inductively from the raw data. This framework, presented herein, forms the basis of a new, practical mediation model, consisting of twenty strategy-based codes in four broad categories−Cognitive-Related, Affective-Related, Co-construction-Related, and Overarching. The study concludes that learners’ thoughts appear to broaden and deepen in forums when an intentional, contingent blend of cognitive mediation strategies is merged with mediation strategies aimed at building (1) affect for rapport, and (2) social interaction for the co-construction of knowledge.

An Analytical Review of the Recent Crustal Uplifts, Tectonics, and Seismicity of the Caucasus Region

This paper analyzes and reviews the rapid uplifts of the Earth’s crust in the Caucasus that occurred over the last century. The uplifts were registered by precise repeated state leveling and reflected on officially published maps of vertical movements of the Earth’s crust. This study summarizes information on the region’s vertical movements over more than a century. The present study describes the technology for creating maps of recent vertical movements of the Earth’s crust using precision leveling data. This paper summarizes cases of recording uplifts of the Earth’s surface in other regions of the world in connection with seismic activity. The authors carried out intercomparison of vertical movements with tectonics, seismicity, and geophysical fields, which discovered their apparent mutual correspondence. This indicates the deep tectonic nature of the observed uplifts of the Earth’s crust. Spatial and temporal agreement with the distribution of strong earthquakes showed a natural relationship. It has been shown that strong earthquakes are confined to the boundaries of zones of rapid uplift. They occur predominantly in areas of transition between uplifts and subsidence. The results obtained demonstrate the role of the study and observations of vertical movements of the Caucasus in assessing periods and areas of increased seismic hazard.

The #MeToo Movement in Iran: Reporting Sexual Violence and Harassment

Abstract: Research and discussions concerning sexual harassment, rape, violence, and consent, among a myriad of other subjects, and their implications for women, men, as well as nonbinary and queer individuals in contemporary Iran, have been notably limited. However, with the emergence of Iran’s recent feminist movement, “Jin Jiyan Azadî” (Woman, Life, Freedom), in 2022, the edited volume titled The #MeToo Movement in Iran: Reporting Sexual Violence and Harassment (2023) has garnered heightened significance. This volume addresses the existing gap by amalgamating historical, sociological, and ethnographic research with an analysis of the contemporary discourse surrounding sexual harassment and the #MeToo movement within the framework of Iran’s religious, cultural, literary, and digital/globalized landscape. As the pioneering publication of its kind focusing on Iran’s #MeToo movement, this volume stands in solidarity with survivors and the tireless efforts of activists and journalists already engaged in this crucial work. Manijeh Moradian recently conducted interviews with the editor and select contributors to illuminate key aspects of the volume.

Husserlian Neurophenomenology: Grounding the Anthropology of Experience in Reality

Anthropology has long resisted becoming a nomothetic science, thus repeatedly missing opportunities to build upon empirical theoretical constructs, choosing instead to back away into a kind of natural history of sociocultural differences. What is required are methods that focus the ethnographic gaze upon the essential structures of perception as well as sociocultural differences. The anthropology of experience and the senses is a recent movement that may be amenable to including a partnership between Husserlian phenomenology and neuroscience to build a framework for evidencing the existence of essential structures of consciousness, and the neurobiological processes that have evolved to present the world to consciousness as adaptively real. The author shows how the amalgamation of essences (sensory objects, relations, horizons, and associated intuitions) and the quest for neural correlates of consciousness can be combined to augment traditional ethnographic research, and thereby nullify the “it’s culture all the way down” bias of constructivism.

The Rise of Particulars: AI and the Ethics of Care

Machine learning (ML) trains itself by discovering patterns of correlations that can be applied to new inputs. That is a very powerful form of generalization, but it is also very different from the sort of generalization that the west has valorized as the highest form of truth, such as universal laws in some of the sciences, or ethical principles and frameworks in moral reasoning. Machine learning’s generalizations synthesize the general and the particular in a new way, creating a multidimensional model that often retains more of the complex differentiating patterns it has uncovered in the training process than the human mind can grasp. Particulars speak louder in these models than they do in traditional generalizing frameworks. This creates an odd analogy with recent movements in moral philosophy, particularly the feminist ethics of care which rejects the application of general moral frameworks in favor of caring responses to the particular needs and interests of those affected by a moral decision. This paper suggests that our current wide-spread and justified worries about ML’s inexplicability—primarily arising from its reliance on staggeringly complex patterns of particulars—may be preparing our culture more broadly for a valorizing of particulars as at least as determinative as generalizations, and that this might help further advance the importance of particulars in ideas such as those put forward by the ethics of care.

Dissociable Codes in Motor Working Memory.

Working memory has been comprehensively studied in sensory domains, like vision, but little attention has been paid to how motor information (e.g., kinematics of recent movements) is maintained and manipulated in working memory. "Motor working memory" (MWM) is important for short-term behavioral control and skill learning. Here, we employed tasks that required participants to encode and recall reaching movements over short timescales. We conducted three experiments (N = 65 undergraduates) to examine MWM under varying cognitive loads, delays, and degrees of interference. The results support a model of MWM that includes an abstract code that flexibly transfers across effectors, and an effector-specific code vulnerable to interfering movements, even when interfering movements are irrelevant to the task. Neither code was disrupted by increasing visuospatial working memory load. These results echo distinctions between representational formats in other domains, suggesting that MWM shares a basic computational structure with other working memory subsystems.

Between the center and periphery: Commodification, formalisation, and infrastructuralisation of grassroots innovation.

The question of whether China can become a creative nation has been a topic of much debate in academic circles. The Chinese government has expressed its belief that China can develop a unique form of creativity to move the country from the periphery to the center of the global creative ecosystem. This perspective has led to a series of state-led trials and experiments, including the adoption of cultural and creative industries, creative clusters and cities, and the recent maker movement. This paper utilizes the center-periphery theory to analyze the emergence, development, and evolution of China's maker movement, aiming to revisit the creativity issues in contemporary China. Based on three years of ethnographic research, the paper unpacks the maker movement at three interrelated levels: individual, organizational, and urban. Empirical data indicates that the transformation of China's maker movement is characterized by commodification, formalization, and infrastructuralization processes. The tension between growth and development, and stability and control has turned the once grassroots maker movement into a contested creative hybrid. This paper challenges the conventional view that China is resistant to change and incapable of creativity due to institutional and ideological influences. It demonstrates how an alternative mode of creativity can emerge outside global creative centers and proposes a new perspective on China's potential to become a creative nation.