Recent Events Research Articles

WHEN DISASTER STRIKES: ADDRESSING THE UNIQUE NEEDS OLDER ADULTS FACE IN EMERGENCY SITUATIONS

Abstract Older adults are more at risk for harm in emergency situations (e.g., pandemics, natural disasters, extreme weather events) and often require more assistance in response and recovery efforts. The COVID-19 pandemic and the increase in climate related emergencies has emphasized the critical need to prepare and respond more effectively to the unique needs of older adults in emergency situations. There is much that community-based seniors serving (CBSS) organizations, emergency management professionals, and local governments can do to develop and implement policies, programs, and practices to effectively support the needs of older adults in emergency preparedness and response. In British Columbia, the COVID-19 pandemic and recent extreme weather events (i.e., forest fires, flooding, and heat waves) have prompted the development of an intentional network strategy for emergency preparedness and response. This innovative approach, which is coordinated by United Way British Columbia, has allowed for increased communication, coordination, collaboration, peer learning, and knowledge translation among CBSS agencies, as well as partner organizations, allied professionals, and other stakeholders. This presentation describes our comprehensive approach to supporting communities to understand and address the specific needs of older adults in emergency planning and management, including: 1) community grants and capacity building; 2) tools and resource development; 3) policies and rights-based strategies; and 4) fostering collaboration between CBSS agencies, emergency management professionals, and all levels of government. Examples are also provided illustrating how these approaches have been utilized in British Columbia to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic and severe weather events.

LIFE COURSE TIMING OF ADVERSITY AND DIURNAL CORTISOL IN LATER LIFE

Abstract Exposure to adversity is believed to alter stress sensitive biological processes. One manifestation of this, flatter diurnal cortisol slopes, has been linked to cardiometabolic problems. Questions remain about whether the timing of adversity within the life course influences its effect on cortisol slopes in later life. Two longitudinal cohort studies (Cardiac Rehabilitation and The Experience [CREATE], Tracking Risk Identification for Adult Diabetes [TRIAD]) with identical measures were merged for analysis (merged N = 175, Mage 60.8) using multilevel modeling. Measures included retrospective self-report of childhood trauma (CTQ), major life stressors in adulthood (number and recency of stressful events, affected domains, everyday discrimination), and peak-to-bedtime cortisol slopes (≤12 collected over 15 months). Report of any moderate and severe childhood adversity was not associated with adult cortisol slopes (p>.05). When we probed specific types, emotional abuse was associated with cortisol slopes (b=.006, SE=.003, p=.015). For adult adversity, total number of stressful events (b=.001, SE=.0002, p=.009) and recent stressful events (b=.003, SE=.001, p=.041) were associated with cortisol slopes. When simultaneously modeling all measures of adversity over the life course, number of stressful events in adulthood (b=. 001, SE=.0002, p=.018) and childhood emotional abuse (b=.007, SE=.004, p=.064) were the strongest predictors of flatter diurnal cortisol slopes in adulthood. Given that those reporting childhood adversity were also more likely to have experienced adulthood adversity (r=.08-.39), early life adversity may be an important risk factor for flattened cortisol slopes and associated cardiometabolic outcomes in later life via multiple pathways. Implications for intervention will be discussed.

A Delta of Time

In the early modern Low Countries, narrative cartography was a thriving new medium aimed at disseminating information about events concerning the Dutch Revolt. News maps combined spatial and narrative information in order to tell the story of a recent event to a large audience, representing actions, moments, and (spatial) change. They were in essence temporal products. To keep the maps topical, map publishers released new map states by modifying their copperplates and adding the latest news, sometimes multiple times. This article analyses the ‘updated’ map series by the Amsterdam publisher Claes Jansz Visscher that reported on events in the Scheldt river area between Bergen op Zoom and Antwerp (such as the 1631 Battle of the Slaak). The central question is how and why Visscher incorporated temporal information into his news maps. First, it shows the tools and strategies how Visscher, in comparison to other Northern and Southern Netherlandish news map publishers, added temporal information to his maps. Then, the rhythm of mapping and the map narratives are put in the context of real-time events and news culture, and the circulation and use of the maps are interpreted in the context of memory culture and historical consciousness. The article shows how news maps imply specific narratives of events and invite contemporary and later users to engage with and ‘navigate’ the past, present, and future in ways that transcend the limiting idea of time as a linear progress.

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS OF COMMUNITY-DWELLING OLDER ADULTS

Abstract Older adults who depend on others for care are especially vulnerable to harm in a disaster. However, the extent to which they are protected depends on the setting in which they live. State and federal regulations require nursing homes and assisted living communities to have preparedness plans that specifically address the needs of their residents. For older adults living at home, however, protections are far less prescriptive, and in some cases lacking altogether, despite the increasing numbers of disabled older adults receiving care in their homes. In this policy-based study, we examined disaster preparedness for community-dwelling older adults in high-disaster states with high populations of older adults. We found that while many of the states required home-based providers to respond to the post-disaster needs of their older adult clients, few took steps to ensure that before the storm they were prepared. In this study, the state of Florida was an exception, with policies calling for service providers to identify and contact at-risk clients before and after an event. The plan further identifies disaster preparedness as a key component of a livable community. Hurricane Ian struck Fort Myers, Florida, in September 2022. Older adults made up a majority of the 148 killed during and immediately after the storm. Many others lost their homes. In the context of this recent event, we will discuss not only the state and local policies, but the practices that affect the health and well-being of community-dwelling older adults faced with a major disaster.

Uneven demographic consequences of the 2022 disease outbreak for the sea urchin Diadema antillarum in Puerto Rico.

Pervasive epizootic events have had a significant impact on marine invertebrates throughout the Caribbean, leading to severe population declines and consequential ecological implications. One such event was the regional collapse of herbivory, partly caused by the Diadema antillarum mortality event in 1983-84, resulting in a trophic cascade and altering the structure of reef communities. Consequently, there was a notable decrease in coral recruitment and an increase in the coverage of macroalgae. Nearly four decades later, in early 2022, the Caribbean basin experienced another widespread mass mortality event, further reducing the populations of D. antillarum. To assess the effects of this recent mortality event on the current demographics of D. antillarum, we surveyed eight populations along the eastern, northeastern, northern, and northwestern coast of Puerto Rico from May to July 2022, estimating their population density, size distribution, and disease prevalence. Additionally, the study compared these population parameters with data from four sites previously surveyed in 2012 and 2017 to understand the impact of the recent mortality event. The survey conducted in 2022 showed varying population densities at the surveyed reefs. Some populations exhibited mean densities of nearly one individual per square meter, while others had extremely low or no living individuals per square meter. The four populations with the highest density showed no evidence of disease, whereas the four populations with the lowest D. antillarum densities exhibited moderate to high disease prevalence. However, when considering all sites, the estimated disease prevalence remained below 5%. Nevertheless, the comparison with data from 2012 and 2017 indicated that the recent mortality event had a negative impact on D. antillarum demographics at multiple sites, as the densities in 2022 were reduced by 60.19% compared to those from the previous years. However, it is still too early to determine the severity of this new mortality event compared to the 1983-84 mortality event. Therefore, it is imperative to continue monitoring these populations.

Development of Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) Curves over the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Using CHIRPS Satellite-Based Precipitation Products

The recent flooding events in the UAE have emphasized the need for a reassessment of flood frequencies to mitigate risks. The exponential urbanization and climatic changes in the UAE require a reform for developing and updating intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves. This study introduces a methodology to develop and update IDF curves for the UAE at a high spatial resolution using CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station) data. A bias correction was applied to the CHIRPS data, resulting in an improved capture of extreme events across the country. The Gumbel distribution was the most suitable theoretical distribution for the UAE, exhibiting a strong fit to the observed data. The study also revealed that the CHIRPS-derived IDF curves matched the shape of IDF curves generated using rain gauges. Due to orographic rainfall in the northeastern region, the IDF intensities were at their highest there, while the aridity of inland regions resulted in the lowest intensities. These findings enhance our understanding of rainfall patterns in the UAE and support effective water resource management and infrastructure planning. This study demonstrates the potential of the CHIRPS dataset for IDF curve development, emphasizes the importance of performing bias corrections, and recommends tailoring adjustments to the intended application.

Evaluation of surrogate flood models for the use in impact-based flood warning systems at national scale

Recent flood events show that gaps in the communication channels from warning services to target groups inhibit mitigation. One approach addressing this issue is impact-based warning. We introduce a library-based surrogate flood model for the use in impact-based warning systems, tested for the main river network of Northern Switzerland. To validate the surrogate model, we compare the impacts to buildings, persons and workplaces with hazard classification, estimated with transient simulations for nine extreme precipitation scenarios. With 78 analyzed model regions, the surrogate approach reaches a Flood Area Index between 0.74 and 0.90 for each scenario (overall 0.84). The Critical Success Index calculated based on exposed persons is 0.77–0.93 (overall 0.89). Our prototype of a library-based flood surrogate model demonstrates the ability of accurately representing a same resolved transient model, bearing the potential to predict flood impacts nationwide in near real-time and the applicability to probabilistic forecasts.

Adverse event reporting practices in drug-resistant tuberculosis facilities across South Africa.

The reporting of adverse drug reactions associated with drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) medication is important for pharmacovigilance, especially in high-burden countries such as South Africa. With DR-TB treatment being so dynamic, it is important to understand adverse event reporting practices at specialised facilities. The study aimed to understand the adverse drug reaction (ADR) reporting practices at DR-TB treatment facilities in South Africa. Interviews were conducted with healthcare workers at specialised DR-TB facilities. This was to collect data on demographics, pharmacovigilance training, and determine attitudes and practices towards reporting adverse events. A checklist was developed to review the most recent adverse event forms captured at the facility. Most participants did not have adverse event reporting training since their initial training but were confident that they could complete a form themselves. Most participants could correctly identify the major adverse events associated with DR-TB medication, but some deemed non-adverse events as plausible. Adverse event report forms were not standardised with most participants deeming further training and regular feedback as reasons to report ADRs. Standardisation of adverse event report forms used and the establishment of regular reporting will increase adverse event reporting at DR-TB facilities. Continuous training, empowerment and expansion of staff categories eligible to report adverse events will enhance and sustain such practice. The study highlights challenges faced by healthcare professionals in reporting adverse events.

Rai, public service media, and sport

The article examines the current challenges and opportunities facing the Italian public broadcaster Rai in relation to global sporting events in the digital scenario. Adopting a sys- temic perspective, the study explores the tensions among the increasing commercialisation/ political disenchantment of major sporting events, and the public remits of Rai to secure them within the current EU regulation on sport rights and in terms of public service media. An historical overview of Rai’s linkage with sports is provided to contextualise the discussion of the online TV service RaiPlay and its current strategy for both on-demand sports content and the live coverage of recent global sporting events, such as Tokyo 2020 and Qatar 2022. The article concludes by emphasising the potential for Rai to enable new forms of engage- ment, while also urging a careful consideration of the traditional remits and values of public service in the face of evolving media landscapes.

Turbulent Events Effects: Socioeconomic Changes in Southern Poland as Captured by the LSED Index

Today’s generations live in uncertain times. The inflation of violent and unpredictable events over the last two decades, such as the economic crisis or COVID-19 pandemic, has affected the functioning of regions and the daily lives of their residents. Therefore, the socioeconomic level has to be monitored. This article fills the research gap regarding the identification of the impact of recent turbulent events on the development of municipalities in southern Poland. The specific goal is to identify trends in socioeconomic changes in times of change and uncertainty from 2006 to 2021 in 450 municipalities in Małopolskie, Śląskie, and Świętokrzyskie Voivodeships. The research defined model and problem areas among the municipalities regarding the level of development. The analyses employ an original synthetic Level of SocioEconomic Development index (LSED) consisting of 18 diagnostic variables. The study mixed qualitative and quantitative approaches and considered the spatial dimension in statistical analyses. We identified general trends related to the ageing population and housing shortage. Moreover, in municipalities dominated by industry, socioeconomic development was generally constant. The opposite is true for municipalities focusing on tourism or agriculture. The conclusions demonstrate that Poland’s European Union membership was the key driver of the socioeconomic development of the regions and the country at large. The rule of law crisis in Poland and ensuing cuts in EU spending could slow the development down. The crisis brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic might be consequential as well.

AIS Data Manipulation in the Illicit Global Oil Trade

This article takes a close look at the landscape of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) spoofing. It is well known that automated identification system (AIS) spoofing can be used for electronic warfare to conceal military activities in sensitive sea areas; however, recent events suggest that there is a similar interest of spoofing AIS signals for commercial purposes. The shipping industry is currently experiencing an unprecedented period of deceptive practices by tanker operators seeking to evade sanctions. Last year’s announcement of a price cap on Russian crude oil and a new ban on Western companies insuring Russian cargoes is setting the stage for an increase in illegal activity. Our research team identified and documented the AIS position falsification by tankers transporting Russian crude oil in closed ship-to-ship (STS) oil transfers. The identification of the falsified positions is based on the repeated instances of discrepancies between AIS location suggestions and satellite radar imagery indications. Using the data methods at our disposal, we reconstructed the true movements of certain tankers and encountered some surprising behavior. These false ship positions make it clear that we need effective tools and strategies to ensure the reliability and robustness of AISs.

The relationship between patterns of negative life experiences and clinical presentation in a psychiatric sample.

Attempts have been made to classify the patterns of polytraumatization using a person-centered approach. However, most studies have only focused on maltreatment and interpersonal trauma and have been unable to examine various clinical symptoms. This study aimed to explore patterns of negative life experiences, including maltreatment, lifetime trauma, and recent stressful life events, and compare diverse dimensions of the clinical manifestations among the subtypes in a clinical sample. We investigated childhood maltreatment, lifetime trauma, and recent stressful events using a self-report method in 1410 psychiatric patients; we classified the patterns of lifelong negative life experiences using latent profile analysis (LPA). We used the rates of psychiatric diagnosis, the Beck Depression Inventory,the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R-K),and the Multiphasic Minnesota Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Formto compare various symptom dimensions among the derived subtypes. LPA indicated a four-class solution: mild, recent stress, maltreatment, and multiple adversity group. The multiple adversity group experiencing both lifetime trauma and recent stressful life events, in addition to maltreatment, including sexual abuse, had a high rate of severe mental illness and more symptom dimensions of thought and behavior problems. However, the rates of depressive disorders and emotional/internalizing symptoms were not more than those in the other two groups (recent stress and maltreatment groups) experiencing moderate levels of lifetime trauma. There was no significant difference between the recent stress and maltreatment groups for most symptom dimensions. The findings indicate that distinct symptom profiles may be associated with the pattern of negative experiences, suggesting that negative experiences need multidimensional investigation in clinical settings.

Institutional aspects of the welfare management of the economic system

The development of the modern economic system takes place within the framework of significant institutional transformations. The complication of the processes of economic interaction between economic entities, institutional formations is accompanied by additional waste of time and resources, which ultimately negatively affects the dynamics of the efficiency of the economic system and its well-being.
 Recent events in the field of politics and socio-economic development have clearly had a significant negative impact on current economic processes, and thus predetermined the corresponding negative changes in future periods, which, on the one hand, introduces a destabilizing factor into the traditionally established economic relations and processes, and on the other hand, the restructuring of familiar systems and relationships can provide an opportunity to find new ways of doing business and thereby improve the efficiency of the welfare of the economic system.
 The cyclical development of economic processes, as you know, has not only negative, but also positive consequences. In this regard, the main task of the present period is to find new favorable opportunities and ways to implement them as soon as possible in order to improve well-being.

Analysis of Freight Turnover Along the North-South International Transport Corridor and Assessment for the Transportation of Goods in Freight Trains According to a Fixed Schedule

In connection with recent events in the country, when the European Union imposes economic sanctions not only on individual enterprises, but even on entire industries of our country, one of the main tasks of the government is to protect and strengthen the national economy, reduce dependence on Western companies and establish ties with enterprises countries of Asia, Africa, Indochina. As a result, the North-South transport corridor is gaining great importance. The North-South ITC is an international transport corridor created for the efficient delivery of goods between the states of North-West Europe and the countries of the Caspian Basin, the Persian Gulf, Central, South and Southeast Asia, using the transport infrastructure of Russia. At the moment, this is one of the shortest routes connecting Russia with the countries of the Middle East, Southeast Asia and India. The purpose of the article is to analyze the volume of cargo transportation along the North-South ITC from Russia and the countries of China, Iran, Turkey, and India, as well as to assess the potential for the development of the corridor for the development of increasing volumes and transportation on a firm schedule.

Vortex-Induced Force Identification of a Long-Span Bridge Based on Field Measurement Data

Vortex-induced force (VIF) identification and modelling of a long-span bridge are often conducted in terms of aeroelastic sectional model tests in wind tunnels. However, there are uncertainties inherent in wind tunnel model tests so that vortex-induced vibration (VIV) still occurs in real long-span bridges designed according to wind tunnel test results. This paper presents a framework for VIF identification of a long-span bridge based on field-measured wind and acceleration data. The framework is composed of the four steps: (1) decompose field-measured acceleration response time histories using variational mode decomposition (VMD) method; (2) obtain velocity and displacement response time histories using frequency domain integration (FDI) method; (3) establish and update the finite element model and identify the generalized VIF time histories of the bridge; and (4) identify the parameters in the polynomial VIF models and decide the most suitable VIF model. The proposed framework is finally applied to a real suspension bridge with a recent VIV event. The results show that the proposed framework can accurately identify the generalized VIF acting on the bridge from the field-measured acceleration and wind data, and the derived most suitable VIF model can produce almost the same vortex-induced response (VIR) as the measured ones.

Wider die Verfinsterung politischer Begriffe, oder: Theologische Ethik im Deutschen Herbst. Ein unveröffentlichtes Vorlesungsmanuskript Traugott Kochs vom 20.10.1977

Abstract In 1977, the terror of the Red Army Faction (RAF) reached its climax during the so-called German Autumn. A few days after the liberation of the Lufthansa plane „Landshut“, the Protestant theologian Traugott Koch, who was teaching at the University of Hamburg at the time, took the opportunity of a lecture hour to offer the students present ethical-theological orientation in view of the recent events. The manuscript of this interesting contemporary document is published here for the first time in public. An introduction places Koch’s remarks in the contemporary debate context.

Development of Russian lubricants market under sanction pressure

The oil and gas sector is one of the key sectors in the structure of the economy of the Russian Federation, as well as petroleum products industry, and particularly oil lubricants and components for their production. According to official statistics, the share of exports of petroleum products in monetary terms was 29 % in 2021, and in some years the figure was more than 50 %. Because of global events in recent years, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the consequences of sanction pressure, significant changes have occurred in the global and Russian lubricants markets, which have led to the emergence of turbulence in the markets, and resulted in uncertainty about the further development. The main purpose of this study is to identify the main trends in the development of the lubricants market in Russia in 2023. Within the framework of the study, the concept of “oil lubricants” and the main technological features of their composition and production process are determined. The analysis of the main geopolitical events and changes that occurred in 2022 and their impact on the lubricants market was carried out. In particular, the influence of the latter on the market dynamics of the main raw material component to produce lubricants, as well as its cost both in retrospect and 2023 expectations (taking into account expected consumption volumes in the domestic and foreign markets) was studied. The study gives a brief description of the market segments, as well as analyzes the main brands that were present on the Russian market in 2022 and changes in their composition due to recent events in the industry. Based on the results of investigation, a comprehensive conclusion about the state of Russian lubricants market at the current time and the prospects for its development in 2023 was formulated.

Inter-group conflict and disintegration: the Portuguese immigrant community in Macao after the COVID-19 pandemic

This study aims to investigate the impact of recent events on the Portuguese immigrant community residing in Macao, focusing on inter-group conflict, integration, and disintegration concepts. The research methodology employed includes a thorough literature review, statistical data analysis, in-depth interviews, and subsequent content analysis. Findings reveal that the strict measures implemented by the local government to achieve zero COVID-19 cases, along with the repercussions of the Hong Kong Umbrella Movement, have given rise to an inter-group conflict and to the departure of Portuguese immigrants. However, there is no evidence to indicate a decline or disintegration of this community.

Expectations of duplicate gene retention under the gene duplicability hypothesis

BackgroundGene duplication is an important process in evolution. What causes some genes to be retained after duplication and others to be lost is a process not well understood. The most prevalent theory is the gene duplicability hypothesis, that something about the function and number of interacting partners (number of subunits of protein complex, etc.), determines whether copies have more opportunity to be retained for long evolutionary periods. Some genes are also more susceptible to dosage balance effects following WGD events, making them more likely to be retained for longer periods of time. One would expect these processes that affect the retention of duplicate copies to affect the conditional probability ratio after consecutive whole genome duplication events. The probability that a gene will be retained after a second whole genome duplication event (WGD2), given that it was retained after the first whole genome duplication event (WGD1) versus the probability a gene will be retained after WGD2, given it was lost after WGD1 defines the probability ratio that is calculated.ResultsSince duplicate gene retention is a time heterogeneous process, the time between the events (t1) and the time since the most recent event (t2) are relevant factors in calculating the expectation for observation in any genome. Here, we use a survival analysis framework to predict the probability ratio for genomes with different values of t1 and t2 under the gene duplicability hypothesis, that some genes are more susceptible to selectable functional shifts, some more susceptible to dosage compensation, and others only drifting. We also predict the probability ratio with different values of t1 and t2 under the mutational opportunity hypothesis, that probability of retention for certain genes changes in subsequent events depending upon how they were previously retained. These models are nested such that the mutational opportunity model encompasses the gene duplicability model with shifting duplicability over time. Here we present a formalization of the gene duplicability and mutational opportunity hypotheses to characterize evolutionary dynamics and explanatory power in a recently developed statistical framework.ConclusionsThis work presents expectations of the gene duplicability and mutational opportunity hypotheses over time under different sets of assumptions. This expectation will enable formal testing of processes leading to duplicate gene retention.

River-phone conversations

The most recent climatic events have highlighted the urgency of pondering on Po irrigated territory, this time considering the growing risk scenarios associated with them. Through a conversation between two voices, a landscape architect and an artist, and more generally, the literature and the art, this paper tries to frame an alternative perspective of this territory. Some thoughts open up to possible evolution scenarios, which deal with the idea of the ‘wild’, the relationship between soil and water, and the public space for the new communities that live there.