Recent Climatic Conditions Research Articles

Evidence of central Alpine glacier advances during the Younger Dryas–early Holocene transition period

The transition phase from Lateglacial to Holocene climate conditions was accompanied by a pronounced reorganization of climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. Evidence of Alpine palaeoglaciers provides a basis for understanding climate downturns during a time of generally warming conditions. In this context a series of well‐preserved and previously undated moraines were investigated in the small Falgin cirque located in the central Alpine Langtaufers Valley (South Tyrol, Italy) and in the neighbouring Hinteres Bergle cirque of the Radurschl Valley (North Tyrol, Austria). Both localities are situated in the driest area of the eastern Alps. They lie well above prominent moraines associated with the Younger Dryas (YD) cold phase and represent the first moraines below Little Ice Age (LIA) positions. The corresponding equilibrium line altitude of the palaeoglaciers in both cirques was 100–120 m lower than during the LIA. Surface exposure dating (10Be) of the inner Falgin moraines shows a mean stabilization age of 11.2±0.9 ka, which is similar to the deglaciation age of 10.9±0.8 ka for the Hinteres Bergle cirque. The ages indicate glacier activity most likely during the earliest Holocene or the YD/Holocene transition. These findings point to a climate with mean summer temperatures about 1.5 °C lower than during the 20th century in the Alps.

Understanding climate change projections for precipitation over western Europe with a weather typing approach

AbstractPrecipitation over western Europe (WE) is projected to increase (decrease) roughly northward (equatorward) of 50°N during the 21st century. These changes are generally attributed to alterations in the regional large‐scale circulation, e.g., jet stream, cyclone activity, and blocking frequencies. A novel weather typing within the sector (30°W–10°E, 25–70°N) is used for a more comprehensive dynamical interpretation of precipitation changes. A k‐means clustering on daily mean sea level pressure was undertaken for ERA‐Interim reanalysis (1979–2014). Eight weather types are identified: S1, S2, S3 (summertime types), W1, W2, W3 (wintertime types), B1, and B2 (blocking‐like types). Their distinctive dynamical characteristics allow identifying the main large‐scale precipitation‐driving mechanisms. Simulations with 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models for recent climate conditions show biases in reproducing the observed seasonality of weather types. In particular, an overestimation of weather type frequencies associated with zonal airflow is identified. Considering projections following the (Representative Concentration Pathways) RCP8.5 scenario over 2071–2100, the frequencies of the three driest types (S1, B2, and W3) are projected to increase (mainly S1, +4%) in detriment of the rainiest types, particularly W1 (−3%). These changes explain most of the precipitation projections over WE. However, a weather type‐independent background signal is identified (increase/decrease in precipitation over northern/southern WE), suggesting modifications in precipitation‐generating processes and/or model inability to accurately simulate these processes. Despite these caveats in the precipitation scenarios for WE, which must be duly taken into account, our approach permits a better understanding of the projected trends for precipitation over WE.

Changes in lithic technology and environment in southern continental Patagonia: The Chico and Santa Cruz River basins

Changes in artifact technology and environment during the Holocene are documented, within an organization of technology framework, for three different regions of Patagonia. Possible relationships between environmental changes and changes in artifact technology are explored. We examine past vegetation and geomorphic evidence of Holocene climate conditions in the three regions studied and what technologies were used during particular wetter and drier intervals. Our results suggest that many of the observed changes in technology use occurred at times of rapid climate change, particularly towards much drier conditions.

WODY LECZNICZE DOLINY POPRADU – REJON MILIKA I ANDRZEJÓWKI

THERAPEUTIC WATER OF THE POPRAD VALLEY – THE MILIK AND ANDRZEJOWKA AREA Abstract. The study area (20 km 2 ) is located almost entirely within the boundaries of MGWB No 438, Magura Beds (Nowy Sącz), within the Poprad Landscape Park and partially within the Natura 2000 area – Ostoja Popradzka. There are two deposits of therapeutic waters of Milik and Andrzejowka, forming an interconnected aquifer system, in which therapeutic and fresh waters coexist and occur mainly in the Piwniczna sandstones. The study area hosts therapeutic water of HCO 3 – Mg–Na–Ca; HCO 3 – Ca, Fe types and carbonated water of HCO 3 – Na–Mg–Ca; HCO 3 – Na–Mg; HCO 3 – Mg–Ca; HCO 3 – Mg–Ca, Fe; HCO 3 – Ca–Mg, Fe; HCO 3 – Ca–Mg and HCO 3 – Ca, Fe types, all containing carbon dioxide. There is a hydrochemical vertical zonation expressed by increasing mineralization with depth. The total mineralization (total dissolved solids) ranges from 1,327.0 to 5,529.0 mg/dm 3 . Based on the results of isotopic studies the Andrzejowka and Milik therapeutic waters have been tentatively categorised into three groups. The first group includes water originating from recharge in much colder climate than the modern one. In the second group the prevalent water is that supplied during various periods of the Holocene under modern-like climate conditions. The third group is dominated by water originating from recharge taking place under Holocene climate conditions slightly warmer than present-day.

A multiproxy study of Younger Dryas and Early Holocene climatic conditions from the Grabia River paleo-oxbow lake (central Poland)

Abstract A multi-proxy reconstruction of water depth, temperature and precipitation inferred from Cladocera, Chironomidae and pollen assemblages has been obtained from Świerczyna paleo-oxbow (central Poland) during the Younger Dryas (YD) and Early Holocene. Results suggest that the YD was relatively cold and comprised two main phases. The first (ca. 12,500–12,000 cal. yrs BP) is characterized by a continental climatic regime and a decrease in winter temperatures and precipitation but an increase in spring/summer precipitation. The second phase (ca. 12,000–11,500 cal. yrs BP) was more mild with a variable continental climate, an increase in summer and winter temperature, a lengthening of the growing season and increased annual precipitation. The reconstructed water level generally follows changes in spring and summer precipitation and length of growing season. The frequency and timing of hydroclimatic oscillations at Świerczyna show strong similarities to records from other sites in Europe. This confirms that oxbows and valley mire ecosystems respond to rapid climate change during the YD and Early Holocene. This study therefore brings new insights into the effects of climate changes on river environments, especially during the YD. We also discuss the limitations of water depth, temperature and precipitation reconstructions inferred from the studied biotic assemblages.

Solar influence and hydrological variability during the Holocene from a speleothem annual record (Molinos Cave, NE Spain)

AbstractWe present a multi‐proxy approach to reconstructing Holocene climate conditions in northeastern Spain based on an excellent correlation among the lamina thickness, colour parameters and isotope (δ18O and δ13C) variations recorded in a speleothem. An age model constructed from five U/Th dates and annual lamina counting suggests that the uppermost 14.7 cm of the MO‐7 stalagmite grew between 7.2 and 2.5 ka before present but experienced a growth hiatus from 4.9 to 4.3 ka. Three spectral analysis methods were applied to 11 time series. The results reveal common solar periodicities on decennial (Gleissberg cycle) and centennial (De Vries‐Suess cycle) scales. The onset of Holocene carbonate precipitation in the MO‐7 stalagmite appears to be associated with a cold, wet period, whereas the hiatus and the end of growth are related to warm, dry periods. This environmental trend fits well within the regional Holocene climate.

Response of Lacustrine Biota to Late Holocene Climate and Environmental Conditions in Northernmost Ungava (Canada)

Sediment cores from three lakes located in the northernmost region of Ungava, Quebec (Canada) were examined to define aquatic community and ecosystem variability during the Late Holocene period. A chironomid-based transfer function was used to reconstruct August air temperature trends, and lacustrine primary production was inferred from sedimentary biogenic silica content and siliceous microfossil abundances. Trends in primary production, sediment organic matter content (estimated through loss on ignition), and chironomid-inferred temperature were compared to explore potential effects of environmental change on biotic assemblage composition at centennial to millennial time scales. Although no direct correlation between chironomid-inferred August air temperature and primary production was observed, we found indications that both chironomid and diatom communities were responding to the same overarching regional climatic and environmental processes. Over the last decade, northern Quebec has been undergoing notable, rapid warming that contrasts with the relative inertia of the past few millennia. This study provides a baseline against which recent and future environmental changes in this region can be compared.

Development of Regional Production Areas in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of Gippsland, Australia

Increased global demand for agricultural production is being driven, in particular, by the rising middle class in the Asia-Pacific geo-region. The significant role of natural resource-based industries, especially agriculture, in the development of non-metropolitan regions is again being recognised. In this context, this article describes a spatial analysis approach to agricultural development based on the development of Production Areas (PAs) in regional/rural economies. PAs are spatial units within regions selected for the intensive sustainable development of agriculture (including forestry, agro-forestry and bio-energy), their associated activities and underpinning infrastructure. A case study in a resource-based region in Australia—Gippsland – explains the approach. This is informed by the eco-economy model of endogenous regional/rural development, which addresses the links between novel co-production and consumption networks. The methodology for the identification and analysis of PAs has, at its core, Land Suitability Analyses of those agricultural commodities currently cultivated in the region and those that could be grown in future climates. The use of GIS enables us to overlay and analyse several constraints (e.g. flood erosion and salinity risk) and resources (e.g. water and transport) to define PAs and the available land within each of them. The approach is further illustrated by focusing in one PA—Macalister, an irrigated dairy production area where recent dry climatic conditions caused a substantial decline in water resources. Key elements for the sustainable development of this PA are outlined including construction of Blue-Green Infrastructure. Comments on the approach and the need for strategic long-term planning concludes the article.

Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis). Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the North Pacific area into the coupled system drastically changes the Arctic climate variability to a point where the Arctic Oscillation becomes an ‘internal mode’ of variability and correlations of year-to-year variability with observational data vanish. In line with previous studies, our simulations provide evidence that Arctic sea ice export is mainly due to ‘internal variability’ within the Arctic region. We conclude that the choice of model domains should be based on physical knowledge of the atmospheric and oceanic processes and not on ‘geographic’ reasons. This is particularly the case for areas like the Arctic, which has very complex feedbacks between components of the regional climate system.

On the reduced sensitivity of the Atlantic overturning to Greenland ice sheet melting in projections: a multi-model assessment

Large uncertainties exist concerning the impact of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the future, partly due to different sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater input in the North Atlantic among climate models. Here we analyse five projections from different coupled ocean–atmosphere models with an additional 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s) of freshwater released around Greenland between 2050 and 2089. We find on average a further weakening of the AMOC at 26°N of 1.1 ± 0.6 Sv representing a 27 ± 14 % supplementary weakening in 2080–2089, as compared to the weakening relative to 2006–2015 due to the effect of the external forcing only. This weakening is lower than what has been found with the same ensemble of models in an identical experimental set-up but under recent historical climate conditions. This lower sensitivity in a warmer world is explained by two main factors. First, a tendency of decoupling is detected between the surface and the deep ocean caused by an increased thermal stratification in the North Atlantic under the effect of global warming. This induces a shoaling of ocean deep ventilation through convection hence ventilating only intermediate levels. The second important effect concerns the so-called Canary Current freshwater leakage; a process by which additionally released freshwater in the North Atlantic leaks along the Canary Current and escapes the convection zones towards the subtropical area. This leakage is increasing in a warming climate, which is a consequence of decreasing gyres asymmetry due to changes in Ekman pumping. We suggest that these modifications are related with the northward shift of the jet stream in a warmer world. For these two reasons the AMOC is less susceptible to freshwater perturbations (near the deep water formation sides) in the North Atlantic as compared to the recent historical climate conditions. Finally, we propose a bilinear model that accounts for the two former processes to give a conceptual explanation about the decreasing AMOC sensitivity due to freshwater input. Within the limit of this bilinear model, we find that 62 ± 8 % of the reduction in sensitivity is related with the changes in gyre asymmetry and freshwater leakage and 38 ± 8 % is due to the reduction in deep ocean ventilation associated with the increased stratification in the North Atlantic.

Climate Change Impacts in the Design of Drainage Systems: Case Study of Portugal

This paper aims to assess the necessity of updating the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves used in Portugal to design building storm-water drainage systems. A comparative analysis of the design was performed for the three predefined rainfall regions in Portugal using the IDF curves currently in use and estimated for future decades. Data for recent and future climate conditions simulated by a global and regional climate model chain are used to estimate possible changes of rainfall extremes and its implications for the drainage systems. The methodology includes the disaggregation of precipitation up to subhourly scales, the robust development of IDF curves, and the correction of model bias. Obtained results indicate that projected changes are largest for the plains in southern Portugal (5–33%) than for mountainous regions (3–9%) and that these trends are consistent with projected changes in the long-term 95th percentile of the daily precipitation throughout the 21st century. The authors conclude there is a need to review the current precipitation regime classification and change the new drainage systems towards larger dimensions to mitigate the projected changes in extreme precipitation.

Increasing Dominance of Odd‐Year Returning Pink Salmon

AbstractThe hypothesis that abundance patterns differ between even‐ and odd‐year returning Pink Salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha was examined using data from the eastern and western North Pacific Ocean, northern and southern British Columbia, and biologically based conservation units, which are Canadian groupings of salmon that are genetically and/or ecologically distinct from each other. Detailed data from (mostly) southern British Columbia were examined to test hypotheses that the differences between even‐ and odd‐year broodlines were due to fishing, broodline interactions, limitations in freshwater or the ocean, and/or density dependence. The odd‐year broodline has become increasingly predominate over the genetically distinct even‐year broodline on both sides of the Pacific and in five of six British Columbia regions. Five analytical approaches revealed abundances were generally increasing for odd‐year conservation units and declining or stable for even‐year conservation units. Recent increases in odd‐year spawner abundance in southern British Columbia were correlated with decreased fishery exploitation, but exploitation was higher for odd‐year than for even‐year salmon, refuting the hypothesis that differential exploitation is responsible for the changing dominance. Significant negative interactions between even‐ and odd‐year broodlines were found in several of the British Columbia regions tested, but there was little evidence of competition between broodlines in the marine environment. Odd‐year populations in the Fraser River increased despite density‐dependent reductions in freshwater production, while there was no indication of changes in marine productivity. Our results, combined with literature findings indicating a more southerly glacial refugium for odd‐year than for even‐year Pink Salmon and temperature‐related survival differences between these broodlines, suggest that recent climate conditions are benefiting odd‐year returning Pink Salmon more than even‐year salmon, especially in the southern part of their range.Received July 6, 2013; accepted January 21, 2014

Debris flow activity related to recent climate conditions in the French Alps: A regional investigation

The primary objective of this study was to document the relationships between current climatic conditions and debris flow activity in the French Alps based on a large historical database of debris flow events covering 35years up to the present. The French Alps are composed of two contrasting geographic areas so two debris flow regions with different activity patterns were defined. For the period 1970–2005, the database contains 565 debris flow events in 87 catchments in the northern part of the French Alps, and in 150 catchments in the southern part. Possible links between debris flow and climate were investigated using two different approaches. The first approach was determining the rainfall thresholds responsible for triggering debris flow events by analysing the links between the intensity and the duration of rainfall events. The second approach used a probabilistic logit model to explore the links between the triggering of debris flow events and temperature and precipitation during the active debris flow period to identify inter-annual variability. Reanalysis data were used to document climate conditions in the two study areas.According to the results, in 80% of all debris flow events, precipitation was recorded during the three days preceding the event. However, in most cases, the quantity of precipitation associated with triggering of the debris flow was very low. Total precipitation exceeded 10mm in only 30% of all cases. We attribute this to the convective nature of summer precipitation, which is quite difficult to model. Probabilistic analysis of the debris flow inventory in the two regions revealed that different parameters were responsible for changes in annual debris-flow activity. In the northern part of the French Alps, the number of rainy days and the maximum daily temperature affected debris flow, while in the southern part the only significant factor was mean daily temperature during the period of debris flow activity (May–October). Model scores had an accuracy of 75% and 70% in the northern and southern Alps, respectively. Our observations revealed that the increase in the above parameters has influenced changes in debris flow activity in both regions, where the number of debris flow events has doubled over the last 35years.

Southern Hemisphere winter cyclone activity under recent and future climate conditions in multi‐model AOGCM simulations

ABSTRACTThis article investigates extratropical winter cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in a multi‐model ensemble (MME) of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of recent and potential future climate conditions. Most individual models and also the ensemble mean yield good reproductions of the typical cyclone characteristics found in reanalysis data, although some individual models show peculiarities, and a large inter‐model spread in terms of quantity of identified cyclone tracks is found. We use a scaling approach to combine the cyclone statistics from different models into a MME. In the future climate simulations, the total number of SH cyclones is reduced, whereas an increased number of strong cyclones is found in most models and in the ensemble mean. The long term trend with respect to all cyclones is a robust feature throughout the simulations. It is associated with a general poleward shift, shown to be related to both tropical upper tropospheric warming and shifting meridional sea surface temperature gradients in the Southern Ocean. The magnitude of increased strong cyclone activity has a focus on the Eastern Hemisphere. It is clearly influenced by natural variability and thus depends on specific time periods considered.

Microbial biomarkers support organic carbon transport from methane-rich Amazon wetlands to the shelf and deep sea fan during recent and glacial climate conditions

We have investigated the delivery of terrestrial organic carbon (OC) to the Amazon shelf and deep sea fan based on soil marker bacteriohopanepolyols (BHPs; adenosylhopane and related compounds) and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), as well as on 14C dating of bulk organic matter. The microbial biomarker records show persistent burial of terrestrial OC, evidenced by almost constant and high BIT values (0.6) and soil marker BHP concentration [80–230μg/g TOC (total OC)] on the late Holocene shelf and even higher BIT values (0.8–0.9), but lower and more variable soil-marker BHP concentration (40–100μg/g TOC), on the past glacial deep sea fan. Radiocarbon data show that OC on the shelf is 3–4kyr older than corresponding bivalve shells, emphasizing the presence of old carbon in this setting.We observe comparable and unexpectedly invariant BHP composition in both marine sediment records, with a remarkably high relative abundance of C-35 amino BHPs including compounds specific for aerobic methane oxidation on the shelf (avg. 50% of all BHPs) and the fan (avg. 40%). Notably, these marine BHP signatures are strikingly similar to those of a methane-producing floodplain area in one of the Amazonian wetland (várzea) regions. The observation indicates that BHPs in the marine sediments may have initially been produced within wetland regions of the Amazon basin and may therefore document persistent export from terrestrial wetland regions, with subsequent re-working in the marine environment, both during recent and past glacial climate conditions.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions

Under particular large‐scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Europe. Clustering is quantified as the dispersion (ratio variance/mean) of cyclone passages over a certain area. Dispersion statistics are derived for three reanalysis data sets and a 20‐run European Centre Hamburg Version 5 /Max Planck Institute Version–Ocean Model Version 1 global climate model (ECHAM5/MPI‐OM1 GCM) ensemble. The dependence of the seriality on cyclone intensity is analyzed. Confirming previous studies, serial clustering is identified in reanalysis data sets primarily on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This pattern is a robust feature in the reanalysis data sets. For the whole area, extreme cyclones cluster more than nonextreme cyclones. The ECHAM5/MPI‐OM1 GCM is generally able to reproduce the spatial patterns of clustering under recent climate conditions, but some biases are identified. Under future climate conditions (A1B scenario), the GCM ensemble indicates that serial clustering may decrease over the North Atlantic storm track area and parts of western Europe. This decrease is associated with an extension of the polar jet toward Europe, which implies a tendency to a more regular occurrence of cyclones over parts of the North Atlantic Basin poleward of 50°N and western Europe. An increase of clustering of cyclones is projected south of Newfoundland. The detected shifts imply a change in the risk of occurrence of cumulative events over Europe under future climate conditions.

European Monitoring Plans for the management of Outbreak of Crimean Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF)

The Crimean Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) is a viral infection caused by the CCHF virus (CCHFV), a member of the family Bunyaviridae, genus Nairovirus. This virus is transmitted by ticks of the genus Hyalomma and has been reported in more than 30 countries in Africa, Asia, South-East Europe and the Middle East [1] arising considerable public health concern in many regions of the world. The first case of CCHF was probably described by a Physician in Tajikistan in 1110 DC in a patient with hemorrhagic manifestations [2]. More recently, CCHF was described for the first time as a proper clinical entity in 1944-45 when about 200 Soviet soldiers were infected while providing assistance to farmers in the Crimea during the Second World War [3]. However the virus was first isolated from a Patient in the Democratic Republic of the Congo only in 1956 [4]. The disease is currently reported in Asia (China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, UAE, Oman, Yemen, southern Saudi Arabia), Africa (Mauritania, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Namibia, South Africa) [5] and Europe [6]. H. marginatum, the main vector of CCHF virus in Europe, is located in Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Kosovo, Moldova, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Spain, Turkey and Ukraine. In 2006 it was isolated for the first time in the Netherlands and in southern Germany [7,8]. As evidenced by a recent study (Estrada-Pena, 2012), favorable climate and ecological conditions present in several European countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea, could ensure a CCHFV expansion in the near future. The risk of infection is particularly high in Italy due to the presence of concomitant factors such as the wild ecological heterogeneity that characterizes its territory, and the peculiar position in the middle of the Mediterranean area. Besides, the recent raising of the average seasonal temperatures in south European countries could increase the colonization by vector populations that were not naive [9]. Typically CCHF’s clinical manifestations are high fever, malaise, severe headache and gastrointestinal symptoms. Extensive bleeding may occur in an advanced stage of the disease, with mortality rates ranging from 5% to 50%. CCHF is a disease of immediate communication to the public health authorities [4]. During the last decade the CCHFV has emerged and / or re-emerged in several countries of the Balkans, Turkey, in the regions of the south-west of the Russian Federation and Ukraine, with a significantly high mortality rates. The reasons for the re-emergence of CCHFV include climate and anthropogenic factors such as changes in agricultural practices or hunting activities and cattle movement. These factors can influence the dynamics of host-tick-virus. In the light of the dangerousness of this disease an International surveillance for the management of an outbreak of CCHF is needed. This should be carry out with an integrated approach among the countries at risk of infection in the Mediterranean area in order to design measures for prevention and control of this disease, mapping of endemic areas and assessing risk of CCHF transmission. In addition, the areas at risk of further expansion of CCHF should be identified also oversight [6]. Different elements concerning diagnosis, monitoring and treatment of CCHF should be considered in order to increase the surveillance in Europe defining appropriate measures for prevention and control. Currently there are no standard definitions regarding how to notify CCHF infection and how “contact tracing” must be carry out in different European countries. Recent cases of nosocomial infection of health care workers infected by CCHFV have been documented. These cases stress the needing for a focused education, with particular regard to transmission pathways and to preventive measures; it is also crucial providing adequate resources on contrasting the diffusion of this disease [6]. Besides, in many countries at risk of infection, standard collaboration procedures and protocols for data exchange are not settled between human and animal health services. Therefore designing and creating a surveillance system for these vector-transmitted diseases should be aimed to develop common procedures and protocols for data exchange. References

Estimation of the summer-fall PMP and PMF of a northern watershed under a changed climate

[1] This study is focused on assessing a summer-fall probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under recent climate conditions and then applying it under a future projected climate using output information from a regional climate model. The estimated PMPs are forced into a hydrological model to investigate potential changes in probable maximum flood (PMF) values. The PMP method is based on the moisture maximization method developed by the World Meteorological Organization. Precipitable water amounts are evaluated using data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model. The approach was tested on the Manic-5 River basin in Canada. Results show the PMP intensity could increase by 0.5–6% for 48 h and 72 h PMP values by the 2071–2100 horizon. These PMP values were used to assess projected PMF values. A lumped conceptual hydrological model was calibrated under recent climate values and model parameters were kept unchanged for modeling future hydrological regimes. Hydrological modeling results indicate modest changes of the PMF values for future climate projections, with no clearly identified upward or downward trends. The study also highlighted the need for a coherent approach to estimate PMF values under future climate conditions using projected PMP estimates, since the current practice of simulating the PMF value by inserting half of a PMP six days prior to the PMP event in a meteorological time series did not produce consistent results. An approach based on a random insertion of the PMP into a meteorological time series is a promising avenue to explore.

Residential Satisfaction in the Informal Neighborhoods of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

Residential satisfaction is a very important factor in determining the quality of life, housing improvement proposals, and adequate housing policies. This paper reports on the findings of a study in four informal neighborhoods or "ger districts” of Ulaanbaatar, the Mongolian capital. Mongolia has been facing an onslaught of rural migration to the urban areas because of two reasons. First, rural nomads have lost their livestock due to recent harsh climate conditions, and second because of the transition from communism to a democratic market economy, based on the exploitation of Mongolia's rich mineral resources. In the cities, migrants have invaded land and erected rural nomadic "ger” (felt tents or yurts). The traditional ger (as they are called in the Mongolian language) are sustainable structures well adapted for a nomadic society. However, when they are located in high-density, unplanned shantytowns, they create many issues. The country's capital, Ulaanbaatar, is the coldest capital in the world; ger' household use coal for heating which causes dense air pollution, especially in the winter. These informal urban areas lack sanitation, adequate vehicular access and other services. Eventually residents build small permanent houses, but they still lack for basic services. This paper presents the findings of more than one hundred household surveys related to housing conditions in three informal ger districts of Ulaanbaatar. The surveys were held in the summer of 2011. This paper discusses some of the characteristics of the settlements as well as the residential satisfaction of its inhabitants.

A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events

We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series—modelled or measured—of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and future climatic conditions.