Recent Climate Change Research Articles

Identification of dust sources inside and outside of Iran affecting air quality in the Tehran region

Introduction: Recent climate changes and droughts have exacerbated the impact of dust sources globally, necessitating a thorough understanding of their influence on air quality. In Tehran, the interaction between internal dust sources from Iran and external sources from neighboring countries significantly affects air quality. Materials and methods: This study spans a 20-year period (2003-2022), utilizing satellite data and advanced algorithms to analyze dust event trends and patterns. The material and methods section outlines the use of Aqua satellite MODIS sensor data alongside two algorithms to identify dust sources, focusing on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data during peak dust event seasons. Statistical analysis of dust events in 2022 supplements the investigation. Results: The analysis reveals distinct patterns in dust particle origin and transport, highlighting the predominant contribution of internal dust sources from Iran's southern Semnan province and significant input from external sources in Iraq and northern Saudi Arabia. Examining meteorological conditions during severe dust events highlights the role of synoptic conditions, particularly the presence of a tropospheric trough, in facilitating dust transport. Increased convective motions and downburst occurrences in specific regions further exacerbate the spread of dust particles, particularly those originating from external countries and provinces. Conclusion: The conclusion emphasizes the complex interplay between internal and external dust sources and the necessity of understanding dust emission dynamics for effective mitigation strategies. It calls for proactive measures involving local and regional cooperation to mitigate dust pollution's adverse effects on air quality in Tehran and similar urban centers.

Population structure and diversification of Gymnospermium kiangnanense, a plant species with extremely small populations endemic to eastern China

Background Gymnospermium kiangnanense is the only species distributed in the subtropical region within the spring ephemeral genus Gymnospermium. Extensive human exploitation and habitat destruction have resulted in a rapid shrink of G. kiangnanense populations. This study utilizes microsatellite markers to analyze the genetic diversity and structure and to deduce historical population events of extant populations of G. kiangnanense. Methods A total of 143 individuals from eight extant populations of G. kiangnanense, including two populations from Anhui Province and six populations from Zhejiang Province, were analyzed with using 21 pairs of microsatellite markers. Genetic diversity indices were calculated using Cervus, GENEPOP, GenALEX. Population structure was assessed using genetic distance (UPGMA), principal coordinate analysis (PCoA), Bayesian clustering method (STRUCTURE), and molecular variation analysis of variance (AMOVA). Population history events were inferred using DIYABC. Results The studied populations of G. kiangnanense exhibited a low level of genetic diversity (He = 0.179, I = 0.286), but a high degree of genetic differentiation (FST = 0.521). The mean value of gene flow (Nm) among populations was 1.082, indicating prevalent gene exchange via pollen dispersal. Phylogeographic analyses suggested that the populations of G. kiangnanense were divided into two lineages, Zhejiang (ZJ) and Anhui (AH). These two lineages were separated by the Huangshan-Tianmu Mountain Range. AMOVA analysis revealed that 36.59% of total genetic variation occurred between the two groups. The ZJ lineage was further divided into the Hangzhou (ZJH) and Zhuji (ZJZ) lineages, separated by the Longmen Mountain and Fuchun River. DIYABC analyses suggested that the ZJ and AH lineages were separated at 5.592 ka, likely due to the impact of Holocene climate change and human activities. Subsequently, the ZJZ lineage diverged from the ZJH lineage around 2.112 ka. Given the limited distribution of G. kiangnanense and the significant genetic differentiation among its lineages, both in-situ and ex-situ conservation strategies should be implemented to protect the germplasm resources of G. kiangnanense.

Middle-Late Holocene climate change in an East Asian sandy land: Perspectives from the phytolith record of different geomorphic units

The accuracy of the regional palaeoclimate reconstruction is vital for ecological restoration and future climate predictions. Clarifying the regional climate signal on different geomorphological units within the same region plays a key role in regional climate researches. Here, we select the Horqin Sandy Land as the research area, and collect sedimentary from two typical geomorphological units (interdune lowlands: ML profile, DBS profile; dunes: CS profile, FX profile) as the research objects. The regional averaging method is employed to isolate distinct climate signals originating from interdune lowlands (IC-Score (Peat)) and dunes (IC-Score (Dune)), alongside an amalgamated climate signal (IC-Score (Peat&Dune)) synthesized from these two geomorphological units. This methodological approach facilitates the identification of variations in climate signals that collectively encapsulate the broader regional context. Meanwhile, local microclimate signals from dunes (IC-D-Value (Dune)) and interdune lowlands (IC-D-Value (Peat)) were separately analyzed to examine microclimate changes on different geomorphological units. The results indicate that different sedimentary carriers on various geomorphological units capture the local climate characteristics of their own units while recording regional climate changes. IC-D-Value (Peat) reflects ‘warm-humid’ climate, and IC-D-Value (Dune) represents ‘cold-dry’ climate. Climate signals derived from diverse geomorphological units exhibit the capacity to portray overarching regional climate patterns, yet they manifest variations concerning both semi-quantitative and quantitative climate parameters, notably temperature and precipitation. A regional average method is used to synthesize climate signals from different geomorphological units, which is more advantageous in documenting regional climate change. Regional climate signal reveals a change from warm-humid (9300 ∼ 4000 cal yr BP) to cold-dry (4000 ∼ 2000 cal yr BP) and then to slightly warm-humid (2000 ∼ 560 cal yr BP). Furthermore, regional climate signal shows the significant ∼ 2000-yr，∼1000-yr, ∼500-yr periodicities since 7300 cal yr BP, and solar activities are identified as one of the important driving factors.

Holocene solar activity inferred from global and hemispherical cosmic-ray proxy records

Variations in solar activity have been proposed to play an important role in recent and past climate change. To study this link on longer timescales, it is essential to know how the Sun has varied over the past millennia. Direct observations of solar variability based on sunspot numbers are limited to the past 400 years, and beyond this we rely on records of cosmogenic radionuclides, such as 14C and 10Be in tree rings and ice cores. Their atmospheric production rates depend on the flux of incoming galactic cosmic rays, which is modulated by Earth’s and the Sun’s magnetic fields, the latter being linked to solar variability. Here we show that accounting for differences in hemispherical production rates, related to geomagnetic field asymmetries, helps resolve so far unexplained differences in Holocene solar activity reconstructions. We find no compelling evidence for long-term variations in solar activity and show that variations in cosmogenic radionuclide production rates on millennial timescales and longer, including the 2,400-year Hallstatt cycle, are explained by variations in the geomagnetic field. Our results also suggest an on-average stronger dipole moment during the Holocene, associated with higher field intensities in the Southern Hemisphere.

Rise in water vapour driven by moisture transport facilitates water availability for the greening of global deserts

There are substantial changes in the global drylands owing to climate change and anthropogenic activities. However, this aspect is not adequately explored in the context of recent climate change and global warming. Therefore, we analyse the role of water vapour in driving precipitation and corresponding surface greenness in the global deserts using satellite measurements. Statistical techniques such as partial correlation and Randon Forest (RF) are employed to understand the relationship among the physical processes that drive water availability for desert greening. Our analysis shows that water vapour is relatively lower (<25 kg/m2) in the deserts than rest of the globe, but comparable to the polar and high-altitude regions. Among the deserts, Thar (25 kg/m2) and Sahara (15–20 kg/m2) show higher water vapour, in contrast to the American and Gobi deserts (<10 kg/m2). Trajectory analysis reveals that water vapour transport from the south Atlantic Ocean is very high (90 kg/m/s) to the Sahel region of Sahara. Similarly, water vapour comes from Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean to Thar, mainly during Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). There is an increase in water vapour driven by a rise in moisture transport to the American, Arabian, Thar and Sub-Sahara deserts during the period 2003–2020. The rise in moisture transport and associated water vapour in the deserts enhance water availability through precipitation and soil moisture, influencing surface greenness, as illustrated by the partial correlation and RF analyses. Enhanced water vapour and water availability, together with anthropogenic activities such as agriculture and afforestation in the deserts drive greening, which is more pronounced in Thar and Sub-Sahara. This study, thus, reveals the role of atmospheric moisture in regulating the terrestrial water availability and surface greenness in the extreme arid regions on the earth.

Impacts of climate change in taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity in snakes in largest dry forest ecoregion, the Gran Chaco

The impacts of anthropogenic activities have significantly contributed to recent and future climate changes worldwide. The future effects of climate change on biodiversity have been intensively studied globally over the past two decades. Currently, dry ecoregions are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world. In South America, three such seasonal dry ecoregions stand out: the Cerrado, Caatinga, and the Gran Chaco. Among these, the Chaco has experienced high deforestation rates and landscape degradation over the last decade, making it a top priority for conservation efforts. In this study, we employed ecological niche modeling to estimate the present and future distribution of snakes in the Chaco region. Our goal was to assess how snake diversity will change with projected climate changes across this geographic area. Our findings suggest that snake assemblages in the Chaco will undergo significant changes under future climatic conditions, with a clear trend toward biotic homogenization of the ecoregion and a decrease in species richness. These negative changes will likely extend to the protected areas within the Chaco, resulting in biotic homogenization and a loss of species richness.

Evidence of lake-level fluctuations during the late Holocene based on diatoms from Lake Vransko, Cres Island (north-central Mediterranean)

An investigation of Lake Vransko, located on the island of Cres in the Adriatic Sea, was performed in order to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental changes that occurred during the late Holocene, based on diatoms. Fluctuations in the lake level were mostly driven by the intensification of climatic oscillations (wet periods during North Atlantic Oscillation intervals and summer drought during Azores High intervals) and anthropogenic influences (e.g. the extraction of drinking water). The anthropogenic impact of local deforestation is encountered, associated with a peak in phosphorous in the deeper parts of the lake cores. As a consequence of these impacts ten diatom abundance zones (DZs) and the water/sediment interface (WSI) were recorded from the deeper core (CS-51) and two from the shallower (CS-52) core, along with the WSI, based on which an abrupt fluctuation in the level of the lake was interpreted. A dominance of Epithemia adnata in the deeper core, and Gomphonema pumilum in the CS-51, and in the CS-52 indicated a shallow phase connected with the summer drought recorded in the lake. A dominance of Amphora inariensis, Pseudostaurosira spp., Cyclotella spp. and Pantocsekiella ocellata in the rest of the cores indicated deeper, more alkaline lake conditions during the wet periods. The DZs accord with depth variations in Adriatic coastal lakes that are key sites of more extreme recent changes in the local climate.

Agropastoral and dietary practices of the northern Levant facing Late Holocene climate and environmental change: Isotopic analysis of plants, animals and humans from Bronze to Iron Age Tell Tweini.

One of the largest isotopic datasets of the ancient Eastern Mediterranean region is evaluated, based on plants (n = 410), animals (n = 210) and humans (n = 16) from Tell Tweini (Syria). Diachronic analysis of plant and faunal specimens from four main periods of occupation: Early Bronze Age (2600-2000 BC), Middle Bronze Age (2000-1600 BC), Late Bronze Age (1600-1200 BC) and Iron Age (1200-333 BC) were investigated. Mean Δ13C results from seven plant species reveal emmer and free threshing wheat, olives, bitter vetch, rye grass and barley were adequately or well-watered during all periods of occupation. The grape Δ13C results suggest excellent growing conditions and particular care for its cultivation. The δ15N results indicate that especially the emmer and free threshing wheats received some manure inputs throughout the occupation sequence, while these were likely further increased during the Iron Age, encompassing also the olive groves and grape vineyards. Generally, domestic animals (cattle, sheep, goats) had C3 terrestrial diets and were kept together in similar environments. However, some animals consumed significant amounts of marine or C4 plants, possibly from disturbed habitats due to land use pressure or salt tolerant grasses and shrubs from wetland environments, which were recorded in the direct vicinity of the site. Middle Bronze Age humans consumed a C3 terrestrial diet with no measurable input from C4, freshwater or marine protein sources. Interestingly, the human diet was relatively low in animal protein and appears comparable to what is considered today a typical Mediterranean diet consisting of bread (wheat/barley), olives, grapes, pulses, dairy products and small amounts of meat. The combined isotopic analysis of plants, animals and humans from Tell Tweini represents unbroken links in the food chain which create unparalleled opportunities to enhance our current understanding of environmental conditions, climate change and lifeways in past populations from the Eastern Mediterranean.

Detekcija klimatskih kolebanja Hilbert-Huangovom metodom na podacima stoljetnog opservatorija Zagreb-Grič, Hrvatska

Advanced statistical methods are applied on long-term data sets from Zagreb-Grič centennial observatory in Croatia to address recent climate change and variabilities; annual averages are used. Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT), consisting of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Hilbert spectral analysis (HSA), is an empirically based data-analysis method for extracting periodic components embedded within generally nonlinear and non-stationary data. The EMD splits the original series into a so-called intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). First, using the EMD algorithm, intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are obtained. The analysis of low frequency IMFs indicates significant influence of the North-Atlantic Oscillation on the air temperature, cloudiness and precipitation series in the part of northern Croatia. For the considered climatic elements, the analysis revealed mild deviations in natural fluctuations of the analyzed signal for the last 30 to 40 years, which are most likely caused by anthropogenic activities. Next, HSA is applied to each IMF obtained for the series of annual averages of sea level air pressure. In order to validate this approach and the results, an associated Hilbert spectrum (HS) is compared with the continuous wavelet analysis, i.e., this is another corresponding checkup. The comparison shows significantly improved time and frequency resolution in favor of HS. Moreover, HS provides a unique capability of displaying intra-wave frequency modulation, i.e., changes in frequency that occur within one cycle of oscillation.

Consistent time allocation fraction to vegetation green-up versus senescence across northern ecosystems despite recent climate change

Extended growing season lengths under climatic warming suggest increased time for plant growth. However, research has focused on climatic impacts to the timing or duration of distinct phenological events. Comparatively little is known about impacts to the relative time allocation to distinct phenological events, for example, the proportion of time dedicated to leaf growth versus senescence. We use multiple satellite and ground-based observations to show that, despite recent climate change during 2001 to 2020, the ratio of time allocated to vegetation green-up over senescence has remained stable [1.27 (± 0.92)] across more than 83% of northern ecosystems. This stability is independent of changes in growing season lengths and is caused by widespread positive relationships among vegetation phenological events; longer vegetation green-up results in longer vegetation senescence. These empirical observations were also partly reproduced by 13 dynamic global vegetation models. Our work demonstrates an intrinsic biotic control to vegetation phenology that could explain the timing of vegetation senescence under climate change.

Gun Island and Blaze Island: Improbability, Risk, and Eco-Cosmopolitanism in Two Recent Climate-Change Novels

Gun Island and Blaze Island: Improbability, Risk, and Eco-Cosmopolitanism in Two Recent Climate-Change Novels

Alleviation of abiotic stress in Oryza sativa by the application of novel polyextremophilic plant growth promoting Bacillus

Oryza sativa (rice or paddy) is a primary food crop that provides 21% of global human per capita energy and 15% of per capita protein. Yet, paddy cultivation faces numerous challenges like water scarcity, inappropriate use of fertilizers, soil salinization, heavy metal contamination, etc. which affects both its quality and yield. Recent changes in climate, demands the agricultural practices to cope with aforementioned environmental adversities without hampering yield. Therefore, the use of polyextremophilic plant growth promoting bacteria (PPGPB) in paddy cultivation can be a sustainable solution that would not only enhance productivity but also alleviate the effects of these environmental stresses in the plants.With this background, this study investigates the role of 5 polyextremophilic PGPB strains Bacillus subtilis BRAM_G1, Bacillus subtilis BRAM_G2, Bacillus subtilis BRAM_G3 isolated from high-altitude waters of Ganges at Gangotri and Mesobacillus subterraneus BRAM_Y2 and Brevibacillus parabrevis BRAM_Y3 in not only stimulating the growth of Oryza sativa PB1692, in normal conditions and in presence of abiotic stress factors like 5% salt, 30 ppm Arsenic and drought, but also in the alleviation of the stress responses in the plants when subjected to these stresses. It was observed while in presence of stress parameters, the plants showed stunted growth, degraded chlorophyll and little to no yield, the PPGPB treated stress setups showed remarkable improvements in vegetative, biochemical as well as reproduction. The metagenome studies showed colonization of the bacterial inoculants, in the treated soils proving that the PPGPB treatment can enhancing growth and alleviate abiotic stress in paddy.

Response of Land Surface Albedo to Fire Disturbance in the Sierra Nevada Seasonal Snow Zone Over the MODIS Record

AbstractWildfires in the snow zone can brighten winter and spring landscapes by removing forest canopy, revealing underlying snow cover. Land surface albedo (LSA) alterations associated with transitioning from a canopied, snow‐hiding vegetation regime to a snow‐revealing landscape have impacts on the surface energy balance, with implications for climate and water supply. Forest fires are increasing in frequency, size, and elevation, but the change in LSA due to fire in the seasonal snow zone (SSZ) is poorly understood. This study addresses this knowledge gap for the Sierra Nevada, where recent climatic changes have contributed to droughts, earlier and more rapidly declining snowpacks, and worsening wildfire impacts. Remotely sensed snow fraction and LSA data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer were used to assess the impact of wildfire on landscapes in the Sierra Nevada SSZ by comparing LSA in burn scars to unburned control areas and the historical average LSA, then quantifying the surface radiative forcing (RF) associated with change in LSA. Among high and moderate burn severity fires, winter LSA varied depending on snow cover, land characteristics, and burn severity, ranging from 0.12 in low‐snow fire scars to 0.47 in snow‐covered fire scars. This study adds to understanding of how landscapes respond to wildfires and the subsequent impacts on the surface energy balance.

Accounting for nonlinear responses to traits improves range shift predictions

AbstractAccurately predicting species' range shifts in response to environmental change is paramount for understanding ecological processes and global change. In synthetic analyses, traits emerge as significant but weak predictors of species' range shifts across recent climate change. These studies assume linear responses to traits, while detailed empirical work often reveals trait responses that are unimodal and contain thresholds or other nonlinearities. We hypothesize that the use of linear modeling approaches fails to capture these nonlinearities and, therefore, may be under‐powering traits to predict range shifts. We evaluate the predictive performance of approaches that can capture nonlinear relationships (ridge‐regularized linear regression, support vector regression with linear and nonlinear kernels, and random forests). We apply our models using six multidecadal range shift datasets for plants, moths, marine fish, birds, and small mammals. We show that nonlinear approaches can perform better than least‐squares linear modeling in reproducing historical range shifts. Consistent with expectations, we identify dispersal and climatic niche traits as primary determinants of distribution shifts. Traits identified as important predictors and the direction of trait effects are generally consistent across models, but there are notable exceptions. Among important predictors, there are more consistent responses to climatic niches than dispersal ability. Modest improvements in predictability when accounting for nonlinearities and interactions, and the overall low amount of variance accounted for by trait predictors suggest limits to trait‐based statistical predictive frameworks.

Determining anthropogenic pressure on the Southern Black Sea blue flag beaches

Coasts are settlement areas that attract human for many years. Türkiye, geographically located on Mediterranean Basin and Asian Continent passage with unique climate regime, has a great coastal zone. The mid-latitude geographic setting makes possible to experience coastal recreation and tourism activities for almost all year along. Among all activities sun, sea and sand tourism can be placed on the first stage. Recent changes in local climate of the Black Sea such as rising mean atmospheric temperatures and increasing number of sunny days have triggered touristic beach activities in the region. In the literature, there are different techniques for grading and classifying coastal beaches. In this study, as an integral part of coastal landscape formation Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) structure is linked to landscape value and regarded as cover changes that determines landscape pattern of the area under investigation. The research rationale of this study is based on an assumption of Southern Black Sea coastal blue flag beaches are under severe anthropogenic pressure. For this purpose, 15 blue flag beaches which are located on the Black Sea coast of Türkiye were selected based on their morphological dimensions. To determine landscape changes and potential human induced effects on selected beaches for the last 35–40 years period, georeferenced, atmospherically corrected Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI-TIRS satellite images were used. Furthermore, carrying capacities for all researched beaches were calculated and documented in order to find the actual human usage frequencies during the high season. According to results of the study, it is clearly observed that all beach areas are under anthropogenic pressure. The most important evidence of this situation is the proportional increases in the IS (Impervious Surface) cover class in the classified images between 1984 and 1985 and 2021 in all 15 beaches. Moreover, these increases have reached up to 5–6 times for some beaches. As inferred, from the field surveys, beach carrying capacities were also exceeded for the most of the beaches under investigation. This means the blue flag beaches of Southern Black Sea are not only affected by construction and urbanization but also under intense pressure of overuse during the high seasons. It is revealed that these areas should be carefully managed with state-of-the-art techniques that prioritize adaptive planning that takes into account all stakeholders participation. Moreover, the activities, authorization and attitudes of municipalities regarding the coastal zones must be limited and inspected by a higher organization.

Coherency and time lag analyses between MODIS vegetation indices and climate across forests and grasslands in the European temperate zone

Abstract. Identifying the climate-induced variability in the condition of vegetation is particularly important in the context of recent climate change and plants' impact on the mitigation of climate change. In this paper, we present the coherence and time lags in the spectral response of three individual vegetation types in the European temperate zone to the influencing meteorological factors in the period 2002–2022. Vegetation condition in broadleaved forest, coniferous forest and pastures was measured with monthly anomalies of two spectral indices – normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). As meteorological elements we used monthly anomalies of temperature (T), precipitation (P), vapour pressure deficit (VPD), evapotranspiration (ETo), and the teleconnection indices North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP). Periodicity in the time series was assessed using the wavelet transform, but no significant intra- or interannual cycles were detected in both vegetation (NDVI and EVI) and meteorological variables. In turn, coherence between NDVI and EVI and meteorological elements was described using the methods of wavelet coherence and Pearson's linear correlation with time lag. In the European temperate zone analysed in this study, NAO produces strong coherence mostly for forests in a circa 1-year band and a weaker coherence in a circa 3-year band. For pastures these interannual patterns are hardly recognisable. The strongest relationships occur between conditions of the vegetation and T and ETo – they show high coherence in both forests and pastures. There is a significant cohesion with the 8–16-month (ca. 1-year) and 20–32-month (ca. 2-year) bands. More time-lagged significant correlations between vegetation indices and T occur for forests than for pastures, suggesting a significant lag in the forests' response to the changes in T.

Operating in the context of evolving climate disclosure practices and frameworks

The standards for companies reporting on the environmental impacts of their operations have changed drastically over the last decade and are about to become even more complex. Initially, limited regulation or guidance available to companies in relation to climate disclosures led to widely diverging practices. This has resulted in many companies facing allegations of ‘greenwashing’ and in some cases litigation and shareholder activism. However, the Australian Government has recently announced it will implement mandatory climate reporting commencing from 1 July 2024 for many Australian companies. Additional climate disclosures – encouraged by pressure from stakeholders and required by the new reporting regulations – will make environmental risk management more complex. The additional disclosures will also provide further opportunities for interference with the approval process for new projects, if there are inconsistencies between a company’s climate disclosures generally and what they have said in their project approval documents. In this paper, we provide an overview of effective strategies and mitigation steps that can be taken to reduce this risk of disruption and disincentivise activist interference more generally, drawing from recent climate change proceedings and experience advising energy and resources clients in relation to climate change and Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) issues more broadly. In particular, we will cover the aspects of the new mandatory climate reporting regime that will be most difficult to comply with; common greenwashing pitfalls; stakeholder/activist engagement planning; and how Boards should approach these issues.

Mid to late Holocene climate changes and grazing activities in northern Loess Plateau, China

Despite the importance of pastoralism, as an alternative or adjunct to farming in China's long history, a clear understanding of the spreading routes and mechanisms of pastoralism in China is lacking. Fungal spores can be a useful addition to zooarchaeological evidence and have been widely used to explore the origins and development of pastoralism in different regions of the globe. The northern Loess Plateau is one of the most important areas for the emergence and development of pastoralism in early China. The aim of this paper was to take the fungal spores in the Baihemiao (BHM) core that we extracted from a site in the Yulin region, combine them with the zooarchaeological records to explore their relationship with climate and environmental changes, and reconstruct the evolution of animal husbandry in the northern Loess Plateau since the mid-Holocene. The results indicate that the climatic conditions in the northern Loess Plateau during the first period of 6–4.2 ka were relatively humid, the number of domesticated herbivores was small, animal husbandry was not developed, and the spores of coprophilous fungi in the sediments mainly originated from wild herbivores. Fungal spores as well as zooarchaeological evidence reveal that cattle and sheep grazing developed rapidly in the region during the second period, c. 4.2–3 ka. We suggest that the arid climatic conditions during this period facilitated the development of pastoral activities in the northern Loess Plateau. However, this pastoral economy gradually weakened after 1.2 ka.

Changes in cladoceran assemblage composition linked to early nineteenth century canal construction, land-use changes, and recent climate change in a macrophyte-dominated Ontario lake

Changes in cladoceran assemblage composition linked to early nineteenth century canal construction, land-use changes, and recent climate change in a macrophyte-dominated Ontario lake

Exploring the impact of the recent global warming on extreme weather events in Central Asia using the counterfactual climate data ATTRICI v1.1

We study the impact of recent global warming on extreme climatic events in Central Asia (CA) for 1901-2019 by comparing the composite representation of the observational climate with a hypothetical counterfactual one that does not include the long-term global warming trend. The counterfactual climate data are produced based on a simple detrending approach, using the global mean temperature (GMT) as the independent variable and removing the long-term trends from the climate variables of the observational data. This trend elimination is independent of causality, and the day-to-day variability in the counterfactual climate remains preserved. The analysis done in the paper shows that the increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme temperature and precipitation events can be attributed to global warming. Specifically, the probability of experiencing a +7 K temperature anomaly event in CA increases by up to a factor of seven in some areas due to global warming. The analysis reveals a significant increase in heatwave occurrences in Central Asia, with the observational climate dataset GSWP3-W5E5 (later called also factual) showing more frequent and prolonged extreme heat events than hypothetical scenarios without global warming. This trend, evident in the disparity between factual and counterfactual data, underscores the critical impact of recent climatic changes on weather patterns, highlighting the urgent need for robust adaptation and mitigation strategies. Additionally, using the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI), the sensitivity of dry and wet events to the coupled precipitation and temperature changes is analyzed. The areas under dry and wet conditions are enhanced under the observational climate compared to a counterfactual scenario, especially over the largest deserts in CA. The expansion of the dry regions aligns well with the pattern of desert development observed in CA in recent decades.