Recent Changes Research Articles

Effects of climate and acidic deposition on interannual variations of stream water chemistry in forested watersheds in the Shimanto River Basin, southern Japan

AbstractAlthough the amount of acidic deposition has recently decreased in Japan, it has still deteriorated some forest ecosystems during the past several decades. Moreover, recent climate changes can affect stream water chemistry. We investigated the temporal trend and effects of climate conditions on stream water chemistry for more than 20 years in two areas (Yusuhara and Taisho) in the Shmanto River Basin, southern Japan, where the effects of acidic deposition are considered to be modest. Stream water samples were collected monthly from three forest watersheds selected at each site. The annual means of the stream chemistry were predicted by multiple regression analysis. The ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate concentrations in the bulk precipitation have decreased at Yusuhara, and the sodium, magnesium, calcium, chloride, nitrate, and sulfate concentrations in the stream water have decreased in both areas. The nitrate and sulfate concentrations apparently responded to the decreasing input of acidic deposition. The sunlight hours were positively related with the potassium, magnesium, calcium, nitrate, sulfate, and bicarbonate concentrations in stream water. The results suggest that long sunlight hours boost the photosynthetic activities, thus promoting soil respiration and decomposition of soil organic matter. Moreover, a higher carbonic acid concentration in the soil solution promotes cation weathering and carbonic acid dissociation to bicarbonate. Given the decreasing trends in magnesium and calcium concentration with no change in bicarbonate concentration, we inferred that previousinputs of acidic deposition enhanced the rate of rock weathering.

Retreat patterns and dynamics of the former Norske Trough ice stream (NE Greenland): An integrated geomorphological and sedimentological approach

A better understanding of past extent and dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is required to provide context for present-day observations, to constrain numerical climate models and to predict future scenarios of ice-sheet response to recent climatic change. The presence of a grounded GrIS on the NE Greenland shelf during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is supported by high-resolution seismic data combined with multi-proxy analyses of sediment gravity cores from Norske Trough. Our results indicate that an ice stream advanced to the outer shelf during the LGM. Recessional moraines and grounding zone wedges on the seafloor of the outer to middle shelf show that initial retreat was episodic, punctuated by two major stillstands. Pinning points for grounding-zone stabilization were controlled by pre-LGM trough topography. In contrast, preserved large-scale glacial lineations on the seafloor of the inner shelf, formed during the advance, indicate that ice retreat from the inner trough to the coast-proximal position was rapid in order to maintain the former carved morphology. Initial ice retreat was underway before 16.6 cal Kyr BP, earlier than previously known for this sector of the NE Greenland shelf. The inner shelf was free from grounded ice at least by 12.5 cal Kyr BP, and likely before. Retreat occurred in a glaciomarine setting and the ice sheet was fringed by a floating ice shelf. There is no evidence of grounded-ice readvances during the Younger Dryas, although a floating ice shelf with vigorous sea-ice and iceberg rafting production occupied the inner shelf at 11.3 cal Kyr BP. 14C dates reveal initial stepwise ice retreat followed by a fast retreat that coincides with Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, respectively. During both periods there was increased inflow of warm Atlantic Water, indicating a strong ocean/climate control on the late deglaciation of Norske Trough. Following the late deglaciation, postglacial (Holocene) sedimentation records a change from an ice-distal glaciomarine environment, to an open marine environment and complete ice shelf disintegration. On the innermost shelf of the Norske Trough, the ice shelf disintegrated and reformed once before the final break-up occurred at 9.6 cal Kyr BP.

Individual differences in the long-term impact of the pandemic: moderators of COVID-related hardship, worry, and social support.

Understanding people's response to the pandemic needs to consider individual differences in priorities and concerns. The present study sought to understand how individual differences in cognitive-appraisal processes might moderate the impact of three COVID-specific factors-hardship, worry, and social support-on reported depression. This longitudinal study of the psychosocial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic included 771 people with data at three timepoints over 15.5months. Participants were recruited from panels of chronically ill or general population samples. Depression was measured by an itemresponse theoryvalidated depression index created using items from existing measures that reflected similar content to the Patient Health Questionnaire-8. COVID-specific factors of hardship, worry, and social support were assessed with items compiled by the National Institutes of Health. The Quality of Life Appraisal Profilev2 Short-Form assessed cognitive appraisal processes. A series of random effects models examined whether appraisal moderated the effects of hardship, worry, and social support on depression over time. Over time the association between low social support and depression was greater (p = 0.0181). Emphasizing the negative was associated with exacerbated depression, in particular for those with low social support (p = 0.0007). Focusing on demands and habituation was associated with exacerbated depression unless one experienced greater hardship (p = 0.0074). There was a stronger positive connection between recent changes and depression for those people with higher worry scores early in the pandemic as compared to later, but a stronger positive correlation for those with lower worry scores later in the pandemic (p = 0.0015). Increased endorsement of standards of comparison, emphasizing the negative, problem goals, and health goals was associated with worse depression scores (all p < 0.0001). People who were younger, disabled, or had greater difficulty paying bills also reported worse depression (p < 0.0001, 0.0001, and 0.002, respectively). At the aggregate level, COVID-specific stressors changed over the course of the pandemic, whereas depression and social-support resources seemed stable. However, deeper analysis revealed substantial individual differences. Cognitive-appraisal processes showed considerablevariability across individuals and moderated the impact of COVID-specific stressors and resources over time. Future work is needed to investigate whether coaching individuals away from maladaptive cognitive-appraisal processes can reduce depression and lead to better overall well-being.

A new deep-sea species of golden gorgonian (Octocorallia: Scleralcyonacea: Chrysogorgiidae) from Antarctic waters

The Southern Ocean harbours rich deep-sea ecosystems with local hotspots of benthic biodiversity. Still, many species, including deep-water octocorals, remain undescribed despite the fact that the exploration of the deep-sea has improved thanks to recent technological advances. In this context, a new species of golden gorgonian has been collected at 1407–1581 m depth during a recent cruise to Dronning Maud Land in the Eastern Weddell Sea. Currently, after recent changes in Chrysogorgia taxonomy, Chrysogorgia lunae sp. nov. (Octocorallia: Scleralcyonacea) is the only known representative of the genus in Antarctic waters. It corresponds to the "Squamosae typicae" and is characterized by a bushy colony with branching sequence of 2/5L and bell-shaped polyps. A molecular comparison with published sequences of Chrysogorgia species is provided based on a concatenated sequence of two mitochondrial genes, mtMutS and COI, as well as the 28S nuclear ribosomal gene.

Impacts of recent rainfall changes on agricultural productivity and water resources within the Southern Western Ghats of Kerala, India.

Significant changes in rainfall patterns are critical to agriculture, and the dependency of cropping systems on rainfall variability would engender appropriate farming practices and agriculture policies for a climate-resilient agriculture system. This study analyses the significance of rainfall variability on agriculture productivity in the Wayanad district of Kerala (India) using time series data on rainfall (1989-2019) and crop yield (2000-2019). The spatial variability of rainfall patterns reveals a dichotomy between the rain gauge stations in the northern and southern parts of the region. Despite the absence of statistically significant trends in the monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall, based on the Mann-Kendall trend analysis, an increase in the yield of many crops (e.g., winter paddy, banana) is evident, which emphasises the critical role of irrigation in driving the crop productivity. As an adaptation strategy to changing rainfall patterns, irrigation would meet the additional crop water requirement for sustainable agricultural production under the varying rainfall distributions. However, the increase in the area under irrigation in recent years has had significant implications for both surface water and groundwater resources. The conclusive findings suggest that the region requires climate-resilient agriculture, focusing on optimising irrigation and developing sustainable agriculture and water conservation strategies.

A comparison of South Pacific Antarctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation reconstructions since 1900

Abstract. The recent changes and record lows in Antarctic sea ice extent illustrate the need for longer estimates beyond the short satellite observation period commencing around 1979. However, Antarctic sea ice extent reconstructions since 1900 based on paleo-records and those generated based on instrumental observations from the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes are markedly different, especially prior to 1979. Here, these reconstructions are examined with the goal of understanding the relative strengths and limitations of each reconstruction better so that researchers using the various datasets can interpret them appropriately. Overall, it is found that the different spatial and temporal resolutions of each dataset play a secondary role to the inherent connections each reconstruction has with its implied atmospheric circulation. Five Southern Hemisphere pressure reconstructions spanning the 20th century are thus examined further. There are different variabilities and trends poleward of 60∘ S between proxy-based and station-based 20th century pressure reconstructions, which are connected to the disagreement between the Antarctic sea ice extent reconstructions examined here. Importantly, reconstructions based on only coral records provide the best agreement between the early pressure reconstructions, suggesting that a contributing role of tropical variability is present in the station-based pressure (and therefore sea ice) reconstructions. In contrast, ice-core-only reconstructions provide a local, high-latitude constraint that creates differences between the proxy-based and station-based reconstructions near Antarctica. Our results reveal the greatest consistencies and inconsistencies in available datasets and highlight the need to better understand the relative roles of the tropics versus high latitudes in historical sea ice variability around Antarctica.

Evaluation of Conservation status of the Egyptian endemic plants along the Mediterranean coastal strip region

The IUCN Red List, which provides data on distribution, ecology and habitats, population size, economic uses, threats and conservation actions, is a critical indicator of the status of the world's biodiversity and will assist in informing a necessary conservation decision. The Mediterranean region is characterized by a heavy endemism of plant diversity, where the majority of its species are narrow endemic species. The current investigation aims at evaluating the conservation status, degree of extinction of Mediterranean endemic plants in Egypt and their changes over the recent climate changes. Twenty Field trips were conducted from February 2017 to March 2023, investigating different regions in the coastal Mediterranean strip in Egypt. In addition, all the previous studies performed in the investigated area, scientific literature, and different herbaria have been taken into consideration. Coordinates, main habitats and threats for 15 Mediterranean endemic taxa were conducted during visits to evaluate their level of conservation depending on IUCN categories. The current investigation indicated that nine taxa were found to be threatened (7 endangered, 2 critically endangered). In addition, four taxa were believed to be extinct, while two species were recorded as Data Deficient. Climate changes (drought and excessive temperature) and human impacts (urbanization and tourism) are the most effective threats on the taxa in this region. The present investigation is the pioneer study for completely evaluation of these taxa according to IUCN criteria.

Robust Wind Power Ramp Control Strategy Considering Wind Power Uncertainty

Recent climate change has worsened the risk of extreme weather events, among which extreme offshore wind storms threaten secure operation by inducing offshore wind power ramps. Offshore wind power ramps cause the instantaneous power fluctuation of interconnected onshore grids and may lead to unexpected load shedding or generator tripping. In this paper, considering offshore wind power uncertainties, we propose a novel robust coordinated offshore wind power ramp control strategy by dispatching thermal units, energy storage systems, and hydrogen storage systems cooperatively. First, the impact of extreme wind storms on an offshore wind farm output power ramp is analyzed, and the general framework of offshore wind power ramp control is presented based on the two-stage robust optimization considering the dual uncertainties of load demand and wind power. Second, a coordinated wind power ramp control model is established considering the operational characteristics of different ramp control sources such as thermal units, energy storage systems, and offshore wind farms. Third, a robust ramp control strategy is developed using the column-and-constraint generation (CC&amp;G) algorithm. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed ramp control strategy.

"Research ends with publication": a qualitative study on the use of health policy and systems research in Ethiopia.

Decision-making about the design and implementation of health care policies should be supported by research evidence. This article reports on a qualitative study on the experiences of both research institutes and policymakers in Ethiopia in generating and using research evidence to inform health policy decision-making. Semi-structured interviews were conducted from January through March 2020, with representatives of research institutes and with policymakers in Ethiopia. The data collected during the interviews were analyzed thematically. Half of the institutions represented had engaged in health policy and systems research (HPSR). These institutes' capacities were limited by multiple factors, including unsupportive research environments; the limited number of researchers with extensive experience; high turnover among senior researchers; lack of staff motivation mechanisms; underdeveloped research culture; limited technical and analytical capacity among researchers; lack of core funding for HPSR; ineffective financial management; and, lack of connections with health policy platforms. Research institutes also lacked the capacity in strategic packaging of findings to influence policy decision-making, although some programs have recently improved in this area. Meanwhile, there lacked a culture of using evidence in policymaking settings. In general, we found that policymakers had poor attitudes towards the quality or value of the evidence, and had little capacity to interpret evidence and apply findings to policy options. As a result, much of the research produced by the institutes have only been relevant academically, with little impact on policy. However, respondents reported that the environment is slowly changing, and the recent creation of a Research Advisory Council at the Ministry of Health offers a promising model. Despite some recent changes, in Ethiopia researchers and policymakers alike often tend to consider health policy and systems research (HPSR) to be not very valuable since the findings generated are rarely used for evidence-informed policy development. Research institutes and researchers need to strengthen their technical, analytical, and administrative capacities (through, among other efforts, seeking more funding for research, and better incentives to attract, retain and build skills among qualified researchers); they also need to improve their understanding of the evidence-to-policy cycle and how to engage effectively with policymakers.

Increasing body condition of autumn migrating Eurasian blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla over four decades

The effects of recent climate change on the phenology of avian breeding and migration, geographical range shifts, and decreasing migration distances are well documented. Only a few studies have focused on the long-term influence of these changes on the body condition of migrants, which is important as it is likely to affect the fitness of the whole population. Eurasian blackcaps have adapted their migratory behaviour to changing ecological factors. These changes seem to favour the species and its migratory populations have increased over the last decades in Europe. In the present study, we analysed the body condition index of juvenile blackcaps at their stop-over site in the southern Baltic region during autumn migration from 1967 to 2006. This index was distinctly higher since the 1990s than in the middle of the 1960s, when the number of migrating blackcaps was at least twofold lower. Moreover, there was a reduction in recapture rates of blackcaps from 14% to 6% during these periods which may imply that warblers were staying for a shorter time at the stop-over site as their body condition was higher. We hypothesized that higher berry crop availability resulted in the higher condition of migrating blackcaps. Body condition index also reflecting fuel load in migrants was higher in long-distance blackcaps compared to the short-distance ones. As the former are time-minimizing migrants, their higher body condition/fuel load may allow them to migrate faster to wintering grounds in sub-Saharan Africa.

Metals and biogenic substances’ migration ability in the «bottom sediments – water» system under natural and experimental conditions

&#x0D; &#x0D; &#x0D; The paper considers the results of long-term studies on some chemical elements’ migration (Al, Fe, Ti, Mn, Cu, Zn, Pb, N, P, Si) in the «bottom sediments – water» system of surface water bodies under the effect of different aquatic environment factors. The greatest effect is made by water bodies’ oxygen regime, pH, and presence of dissolved organic substances, in particular humic substances. The migration of manganese, iron, inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus from bottom sediments is controlled mostly by oxygen regime. Migration of these chemical elements significantly increases, when there is oxygen deficiency and anaerobic conditions are formed in the bottom water layer. It has been observed in both natural and experimental conditions. Man- ganese concentration increases in bottom water in 25–50 times, iron – in 1.3–13, inorganic nitrogen – in 5.3–19.3, and inorganic phosphorus – in 2.8–23 times. The dissolved oxygen concentration hardly has any effect on the migration of aluminium, titanium, copper, zinc, lead, and silicon from bottom sediments into the water. The chemical elements’ migration is significantly affected by a decrease in pH of water contacting with bottom sediments and the presence of humic substances in it. High humic substances concentrations promote a reduction in water pH and oxygen content, which is consumed for their oxidation. A case study of several water bodies illustrates the cumulative effect of water pH lowering, anaerobic conditions at the solid and liquid phases’ interface, as well as complexation with humic substances on chemical elements’ migration from bottom sediments. Experimental modeling has shown that the metal migration from bottom sediments occurs both due to their labile fractions and complex compounds with dissolved organic matter, especially with humic substances of low molecular weight (≤2.0 kDa). The share of the metal labile fraction gets higher, when water pH decreases. Under recent climate change, the probability of water’s secondary pollution with different chemicals increases significantly in summer. This is mainly caused by oxygen deficiency, water pH lowering, and reducing conditions at the «bottom sediments – water» interface with hydrogen sulphide being formed. This is especially true for highly eutrophic water bodies subject to human impact. The aquatic environment toxicity can get considerably higher due to the migration of chemicals with strong toxic properties from bottom sediments, as well as labile metal fractions, marked by higher bioavailability for hydrobionts.&#x0D; &#x0D; &#x0D;

Buying centers and emerging developments: the SME perspective

Purpose This paper aims to explore the challenges and opportunities faced by buying centers in small and medium enterprises (SME) manufacturing companies in view of recent technological changes and the virtualization of communication. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a qualitative approach with multiple case studies to portray complex realities within the buying centers in the manufacturing SME context. The authors selected five Italian companies to portray the diverse characteristics, practices and policies of relevant stakeholders before reaching saturation with the issues explored. Findings The authors find that interactions among buying center members are more effective with greater collaboration and exchange (as opposed to competition and a struggle for power). Virtual/hybrid relations require greater intra-group cooperation, whereas diverse backgrounds and collaborative interactions help the flexibility and performance of the buying center. Greater use of technology produces certainty and automation, but it may also cause overload and biases that can be solved with the ability to analyze and clear responsibility for decisions. Research limitations/implications The authors studied only five Italian companies in this study. Future research in other countries with diverse cultural and socio-economic conditions and methods would help extend this research. Practical implications The findings would improve the understanding of the challenges of adopting new purchase process technologies that would help automate routine tasks, produce useful data and support decision-making. Originality/value Unlike prior studies, this study uses an exploratory design to study the evolution of buying centers in SMEs to seek deeper insights into the challenges and opportunities faced by SMEs because of the growing use of emerging technologies.

Multi-century (635-year) spring season precipitation reconstruction from northern Pakistan revealed increasing extremes

The Hindu Kush Himalaya region is experiencing rapid climate change with adverse impacts in multiple sectors. To put recent climatic changes into a long-term context, here we reconstructed the region’s climate history using tree-ring width chronologies of climate-sensitive Cedrus deodara and Pinus gerardiana. Growth-climate analysis reveals that the species tree-growth is primarily limited by moisture stress during or preceding the growing season, as indicated by a positive relationship between the chronology and precipitation and scPDSI, and a negative one with temperature. We have reconstructed 635 years (1384–2018 CE) of February–June precipitation using a robust climate reconstruction model that explains about 53% variance of the measured precipitation data. Our reconstruction shows several dry and wet episodes over the reconstruction period along with an increase in extreme precipitation events during recent centuries or years. Long, very wet periods were observed during the following years: 1392–1393, 1430–1433, 1456–1461, 1523–1526, 1685–1690, 1715–1719, 1744–1748, 1763–1767, 1803–1806, 1843–1846, 1850–1855, 1874–1876, 1885–1887, 1907–1909, 1921–1925, 1939–1944, and 1990–1992, while long dry periods were observed during the following years: 1398–1399, 1464–1472, 1480–1484, 1645–1649, 1724–1727, 1782–1786, 1810–1814, 1831–1835, 1879–1881, 1912–1918, 1981–1986, 1998–2003, and 2016–2018 CE. We found predominantly short-term periodicity cycles of 2.0, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.6–2.7, 2.9, 3.3, 4.8, 8.1–8.3, and 9.4–9.6 years in our reconstruction. Spatial correlation analyses reveal that our reconstruction is an effective representation of the precipitation variability in the westerly climate-dominated areas of Pakistan and adjacent regions. In addition to the influence of regional circulation systems like western disturbances, we found possible teleconnections between the precipitation variability in northern Pakistan and broader-scale climate modes or phases like AMO and ENSO. The study also highlights the prospects of tree-ring application to explore linkages between western disturbance, increasing intensity and frequency of extreme climate events, and analysis of long-term atmospheric circulation over the western Himalayan region.

Recent beak evolution in North American starlings after invasion

European starlings are one of the most abundant and problematic avian invaders in the world. From their native range across Eurasia and North Africa, they have been introduced to every continent except Antarctica. In 160 years, starlings have expanded into different environments throughout the world, making them a powerful model for understanding rapid evolutionary change and adaptive plasticity. Here, we investigate their spatiotemporal morphological variation in North America and the native range. Our dataset includes 1217 specimens; a combination of historical museum skins and modern birds. Beak length in the native range has remained unchanged during the past 206 years, but we find beak length in North American birds is now 8% longer than birds from the native range. We discuss potential drivers of this pattern including dietary adaptation or climatic pressures. Additionally, body size in North American starlings is smaller than those from the native range, which suggests a role for selection or founder effect. Taken together, our results indicate rapid recent evolutionary change in starling morphology coincident with invasion into novel environments.

Tracking floristic archetypes of Patagonian steppes

AbstractQuestionsThe classification of plant communities is a well‐established practice in ecology. However, the factors that determine the distribution of common species and the extent of their dominance and overlap are still being debated. Large‐scale studies based on field data are of great interest in the face of biodiversity changes and climate change impacts. This research was designed to answer the following two questions: What are the dominant plant communities in the Patagonian steppes and how do they relate to environmental features, as measured by latitude, longitude, altitude, mean annual precipitation and mean temperature? What have been the recent changes in plant communities in terms of expansion and contraction of different types of communities?LocationPatagonian steppes (South America).MethodsWe used a large database of species‐by‐species vegetation cover from 426 monitoring plots in the South American Patagonian steppes, surveyed between 2007 and 2019, with two different assessment dates at least 5 years apart. We applied archetypal analysis to identify different vegetation compositions at a regional scale (called floristic archetypes) and to track their changes over time. In addition, we analyzed the relationship between floristic archetypes and spatial and meteorological variables to assess the association between floristic composition and the environmental context.ResultsSeven floristic archetypes were identified in the Patagonian steppes. The dominant and most widespread floristic archetype showed an expanding pattern in floristic trajectories and was positively associated with mean annual temperature. This floristic archetype was characterized by both drought‐ and grazing‐tolerant species. Two floristic archetypes located at the longitudinal extremes showed decreasing relative participation in the vegetation configurations, and the archetype located towards the west showed a positive relationship with annual precipitation, suggesting a threatened scenario in the face of drier conditions. Southern floristic archetypes either showed a slight decrease or remained stable.ConclusionsPatagonian steppes are dominated by both drought‐ and grazing‐tolerant species communities and their spatial distribution is expanding across different biomes, whereas the more forage‐preferred species were associated with a decreasing floristic archetype. A projected drier and hotter climate scenario may potentiate this pattern. The floristic archetypes framework has potential as a monitoring tool for tracking changes in vegetation composition at a mesoscale and for identifying hotspots of vulnerable vegetation in the face of environmental changes.

Actual coverage of the funds in the account by order on physical evidence under Polish criminal procedure

The subject of this article is a consideration of recent changes to the current Polish criminal procedure. The changes concern in particular the investigation. Initially, the Supreme Court issued two resolutions, which eliminated the actual coverage of the funds in the account by order on physical evidence (this is a legal fiction - funds in an account are not physical objects). At that time, the public prosecutor could only use the "transaction suspension" or "blocking of an account" to freeze the funds. Later, the Polish legislator added Art. 236b to the Code of Criminal Procedure. The purpose of this provision is to outdate the above-mentioned resolutions. Instead of a suspension or blockade, the actual coverage of the funds in the account by order on physical evidence may take place. However, in the authors' opinion, this should only take place in the case of an ultima ratio action. This means, firstly, the end of the maximum duration of the "transaction suspension" or "blocking of an account" and, secondly, the impossibility to apply property collateral. These restrictions are not currently in Polish law. This means that the Polish public prosecutor can theoretically omit the provisions on the "transaction suspension" or "blocking of an account". This possibility applies to fiduciary currencies and virtual currencies. This paper may be useful in considering the options currently available to the public prosecutor in relation to a request for legal assistance to Polish law enforcement authorities which concerns the seizure of funds in an account.

Japan’s Revolutionary Military Change: Explaining Why It Happened Under Kishida

Japan’s security policy is changing rapidly, with drastic increases to its defense budget and the acquisition of counterstrike capabilities. While the deteriorating security environment undeniably motivates Japan’s defense posture, the speed and extent of these recent changes still present a puzzle. Why was it under Kishida Fumio—a former leader of Kōchikai, the liberal and oft-considered pacifist faction within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)—that Japan achieved its watershed moment on defense? This article explains this change through the exigencies of Kishida’s domestic political survival. It was through his leadership of a minority faction within the LDP, his image as a dove, and support for fiscal discipline, that Kishida managed to find the largest common denominator among competing domestic political forces. Had it not been for Kishida, the speed and degree of Japan’s recent transformation in security policies would have been unlikely. In light of these findings, we conclude by considering the policy implications for understanding Japan’s security posture.

Are regulations addressing farm animal welfare issues during live transportation fit for purpose? A multi-country jurisdictional check.

Growing animal welfare concerns have pushed some jurisdictions to strengthen regulations addressing live farm animal transportation, but whether they provide satisfactory levels of protection for animals remains to be shown. Using the recent peer-reviewed literature, we identified four major risk factors associated with live animal transportation (fitness for transport, journey duration, climatic conditions and space allowances) and explored how regulations were structured to prevent animal welfare issues in five English-speaking Western jurisdictions (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the EU and the USA). All legally binding federal regulations were systematically reviewed and compared. Whether these rules were fit for purpose was assessed using the relevant peer-reviewed scientific literature. Our findings indicate the majority of regulations in most jurisdictions are often insufficient or too vague to be deemed fit for purpose. All five jurisdictions fall short in guaranteeing adequate protection to livestock during transport. Using recent changes as well as future policy proposals under discussion, we identify future directions that could form the basis for regulatory changes that may significantly improve the welfare of farm animals during transportation.

The AIDS Epidemic Model 2023 for Estimating HIV Trends and Transmission Dynamics in Asian Epidemic Settings.

Thirteen Asian countries use the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) as their HIV model of choice. This article describes AEM, its inputs, and its application to national modeling. AEM is an incidence tool used by Spectrum for the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS global estimates process. AEM simulates transmission of HIV among key populations (KPs) using measured trends in risk behaviors. The inputs, structure and calculations, interface, and outputs of AEM are described. The AEM process includes (1) collating and synthesizing data on KP risk behaviors, epidemiology, and size to produce model input trends; (2) calibrating the model to observed HIV prevalence; (3) extracting outputs by KP to describe epidemic dynamics and assist in improving responses; and (4) importing AEM incidence into Spectrum for global estimates. Recent changes to better align AEM mortality with Spectrum and add preexposure prophylaxis are described. The application of AEM in Thailand is presented, describing the outputs and uses in-country. AEM replicated observed epidemiological trends when given observed behavioral inputs. The strengths and limitations of AEM are presented and used to inform thoughts on future directions for global models. AEM captures regional HIV epidemiology well and continues to evolve to meet country and global process needs. The addition of time-varying mortality and progression parameters has improved the alignment of the key population compartmental model of AEM with the age-sex-structured national model of Spectrum. Many of the features of AEM, including tracking the sources of infections over time, should be incorporated in future global efforts to build more generalizable models to guide policy and programs.

Evaluating the impact of local alcohol licensing decisions on outcomes for the community: a systematic review

BackgroundInternational evidence reviews suggest that reducing the availability of alcohol positively impacts both levels of alcohol consumption and associated harms. To understand the impact of recent changes to alcohol licensing...