Realization Of Expectations Research Articles

Mathematical Models of Migration Balance and Migration Attitudes in Armenia

The purpose of the study is to provide a quantitative explanation of the migration balance and migration attitudes in Armenian society. A linear regression model has been constructed to explain the dependence of the migration balance on variables at the macro level, including annual GDP growth, the internal and external political state of Armenia. Data from the Armenian Statistical Service on statistics of border movements and annual GDP growth were used. The foreign policy state is represented by a variable taking the values “Truce”, “War”, and “Intense War”. The internal political state is represented by a variable taking the values “Open conflict”, “Latent conflict”, “Balanced”, “Positive expectations”, and “High expectations”. Based on the model, an estimate of the migration balance for 2023 was calculated. According to a sociological survey conducted in November 2022 using the structural modeling method (Structural Equation Modeling), two models were built that explain migration attitudes in society through the socio-economic characteristics of the respondent and characteristics of his political culture, including: the presence of a labor migrant in the family, the age of the respondent, approval of the 2018 revolution in Armenia, the realization of expectations from the revolution, a sense of political competence, political subjectivity and patriotism. The results of the study can be used to forecast the migration balance and migration attitudes in the society, as well as strategic planning and management of migration processes in Armenia.

Analysis of issues related to organizational commitment of extension personnel of Oyo and Ogun States agricultural development programs

Organizational commitment of extension personnel in Oyo and Ogun States Agricultural Development Programmes was studied Organizational commitment is the degree to which the organization members identify with the values and goals of their organization. A census of the ertension personnel in both OYSADEP (312) and OGADEP (136) was performed Usable questionnaires analyzed were 47% for OYSADEP and OGADEP 62.5%. Ninety-five percent of the respondents exhibited low levels of commitment. Identified factors influencing commitment among the ertension personnel include technical subject matter (B=0.179; P<0.001), job involvement (B=0.509; P<0.001), educational qualification (B=0.156; P<0.001) and realization of expectations (B=0.140; p<0.019). For the studied ADPs to motivate their extension workers so as to exhibit committed behaviours, the sustainability of the ADP's need be addressed.

Expectations and Realization of Joint Retirement Among Dual-Worker Couples

Using data from the first seven waves of the Health and Retirement Study (1992 to 2004), the authors examined the extent to which joint retirement expectations were realized, the role of couple-level agreement in facilitating joint retirement, whether husbands' or wives' expectations were more likely to be realized in cases of disagreement, and factors associated with the realization of expectations. The results indicate that couples expecting joint retirement were over three times more likely to retire jointly than couples in which neither spouse expected to do so. However, the probability of joint retirement did not differ between couples in which both spouses expected to retire jointly and those in which only one spouse expected to do so. Wives' and husbands' expectations were equally strong predictors of joint retirement, and retirement age, health, spouses' relative earnings, and discussions of retirement were related to the likelihood of realizing joint retirement expectations.

The Greenspan Effect on Equity Markets: An Intraday Examination of U.S. Monetary Policy Announcements

In this paper, we provide an intraday analysis of the impact of monetary policy on the equity markets. Specifically, we study changes in prices and changes in volatility for the S&P 500 associated with Federal Open Market Committee announcements as well as real-time changes in market expectations about future policy. The analysis shows an economically and statistically significant inverse relationship between equity market returns and changes in the Fed funds rate target. The magnitude of the response is dependent on whether the change was expected or unexpected. An expected change in the Fed funds rate target of 25 basis points results in approximately a 30 basis point decline in the broad equity market, while an unexpected change of 25 basis points in the Fed funds rate target results in approximately 125 basis point decline in the broad equity market. The speed of these market reactions is rapid with the equity market reaching a new equilibrium within fifteen minutes. In contrast to these results, the analysis also shows a positive relationship exists between equity market returns and changes in expectations about future monetary policy. Taken together, these results regarding price changes (returns) suggest that the price discovery process in the equity markets is dominated by the realization of expectations and not market expectations per se. Meanwhile, the volatility analysis suggests a volatility spike follows both FOMC announcements and real-time changes in expectations, but the duration of these spikes is relatively short-lived and dampens out within one hour.