Cyclicality Of Real Wages Research Articles

Human capital and the business cycle effects on the postgraduate wage premium

Postgraduate degree holders experience lower cyclical variation in real wages than those with undergraduate degrees. Moreover, postgraduate jobs require more specific human capital. Using an equilibrium search model with dynamic incentive contracts, this paper attributes the cyclicality of the postgraduate-undergraduate wage gap to the differences in specific capital. Greater specific capital leads to lower mobility, thereby improving risk-sharing between workers and firms. The estimates of the model reveal that specific capital can explain the differences both in labour turnover and in real wage cyclicality between education groups.

On the Cyclicality of Real Wages and Employment: New Evidence and Stylized Facts from Performance Pay and Fixed Wage Jobs

Abstract Using the National Compensation Survey between 2004 and 2017, we document four stylized facts and quantify cyclical heterogeneity among performance pay (PP) and fixed wage (FW) jobs. First, there is substantial dispersion in the incidence of PP, even within the same occupation; hourly compensation growth in PP jobs has been nearly three-times as large as that in FW jobs; the share of PP is increasing in employer size; the provision of PP is largely a firm-level decision. Second, we find that hourly compensation growth among PP (FW) jobs increases (decreases) in response to state employment growth. Furthermore, FW jobs respond primarily by adjusting the extensive margin of employment. Our estimates are identified off of comparisons of similar jobs within the same establishment over time. These business cycle dynamics are consistent with models that feature heterogeneity in organizational practices, allowing firms to adjust to uncertainty over the business cycle under flexibility in compensation contracts. (JEL J21, J22, J31, E32, M55).

Specific Capital, Firm Insurance, and the Dynamics of the Postgraduate Wage Premium

This paper examines how specific human capital affects labour turnover and real wage cyclicality in a frictional labour market. I develop an equilibrium search model with long-term contracts and imperfect monitoring of worker effort. Imperfect monitoring creates a moral hazard problem that requires firms to pay efficiency wages. The optimal contract implies that more specific capital reduces job separation, thereby alleviating the moral hazard and increasing wage stability over the business cycle. I apply this model to explain novel stylised facts about the cyclicality of the postgraduate-undergraduate wage premium. Postgraduate degree holders experience lower cyclical variation in real wages than those with undergraduate degrees. This effect is significant for workers with a long tenure, but not for new hires. Moreover, postgraduates have more specific human capital than undergraduates. Estimates reveal that specific capital can explain the educational gaps both in labour turnover and in real wage cyclicality.

The Heterogeneous Cyclicality of Income and Wages Among the Distribution in the UK

Abstract We investigate the cyclicality of real hourly wages and income using individual data for the UK over the 1991–2013 period. By paying special attention to the heterogeneity among different earnings and income groups, we document that individuals at the top of the distribution are more cyclical than lower ones. We also show that real wages and income are roughly acyclical for low-wage and low-income workers. In particular, we present evidence that the adjustment for low-paid workers takes place through transitions to and from unemployment.

On the cyclicality of real wages and wage differentials

Abstract Previous empirical literature suggests that estimated wage cyclicality depends on the structure of the relationship between real wages and an observed indicator of the business cycle that econometric models impose prior to estimation. This paper, alleviates the problem of imposing such structure by searching directly for the largest common cycles in longitudinal microdata using a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model. We find that the comovement of real wages is related to a common factor that exhibits a significant but imperfect correlation with the national unemployment rate. Among others, our findings indicate that the common factor explains, on average, no more than 9% of wage variation, it accounts for 20% or less of the wage variability for 88% of the workers in the sample and roughly half of the wages move procyclically while half move countercyclically. These facts are inconsistent with claims of a strong systematic relationship between real wages and business cycles.

The Real Wage Cyclicality of Newly Hired and Incumbent Workers in Germany

Several recent macroeconomic models assume that real wages are rigid. The wage rigidity of newly hired workers assumes a crucial role in these models, as the decision of whether to open a vacancy is primarily influenced by real hiring wages. This article analyses the cyclical behaviour of real wages in Germany. It considers recent concerns that not controlling for cyclical job up and downgrading leads to biased results. The results indicate that wages are not rigid – neither for all workers nor for newly hired workers – but instead respond considerably to business cycle conditions.

Real wage cyclicality in the Eurozone before and during the Great Recession: Evidence from micro data

We study the response of real wages to the business cycle in eight major Eurozone countries before and during the Great Recession. Average real wages are found to be acyclical, but this reflects, in large part, the effect of changes in the composition of the labour force related to unemployment variations over the cycle. Using longitudinal micro data from the ECHP and SILC panels to control for composition effects, we estimate the elasticities of real wage growth to unemployment increases between −0.6 and −1 over the period 1994–2011. Composition effects have been particularly large since 2008, and they explain most of the stagnation or increase in the average wage observed in some countries from 2008 to 2011. In contrast, at a constant labour force composition in terms of education and experience, the figures indicate a significant decrease in average wages during the downturn, particularly in countries most affected by the crisis. Overall, there is no evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity during the Great Recession in most countries in our sample.

Real Wage Cyclicality in the Eurozone Before and During the Great Recession: Evidence from Micro Data

We study the response of real wages to the business cycle in eight major Eurozone countries before and during the Great Recession. Average real wages are found to be acyclical, but this reflects, in large part, the effect of changes in the composition of the labour force related to unemployment variations over the cycle. Using longitudinal micro data from the ECHP and SILC panels to control for composition effects, we estimate the elasticities of real wage growth to unemployment increases between -0.6 and -1 over the period 1994-2011. Composition effects have been particularly large since 2008, and they explain most of the stagnation or increase in the average wage observed in some countries from 2008 to 2011. In contrast, at a constant labour force composition in terms of education and experience, the figures indicate a significant decrease in average wages during the downturn, particularly in countries most affected by the crisis. Overall, there is no evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity during the Great recession in most countries in our sample.

Real wage responsiveness to unemployment in Spain: asymmetries along the business cycle

We estimate real wage cyclicality in the period compressed between 1987 and 2013 using a large administrative dataset of workers in Spain. Real wages are weakly procyclical in Spain and focusing on differences in different phases of the business cycle, we find that differences across expansions and recessions are significant, with an even lower real wage cyclicality in recessions. Furthermore, higher levels of unemployment do not translate into additional real wages adjustments when the economy is contracting, while lower levels of unemployment during expansions have incremental effects on wage elasticity. This general result holds after accounting for differences in tenure, type of contract and age categories. Nevertheless, wages of newly-hired workers are the most sensitive to the business cycle and exhibit the lowest asymmetric pattern between expansions and recessions. At the other end, wages of workers with more than six years of tenure can be characterized as the most protected against economic downturns. The same is true for fixed-term vs. permanent workers, as well as for young vs. older workers. JEL classification: e32, j31

The Heterogeneous Cyclicality of Income and Wages Among the Distribution

We investigate the cyclicality of real wages and income using individual data for the UK over the 1991-2008 period. By paying special attention to the heterogeneity among different earnings and income groups, we document that individuals at the top of the distribution are more cyclical than lower ones. Moreover, the estimated cyclicality is considerably higher in recessions than in expansions for top-incomes. We also show that real wages and income are roughly acyclical for low wage and income workers. Instead, their adjustment to the cycle takes place through transitions to and from unemployment.

Cyclical behavior of real wages in Japan

This paper studies the cyclicality of aggregate real wages in Japan. By using both static and dynamic approaches, I measure comovements between real wages and business cycle indicators. This paper finds that while real wages constructed using the consumer price index and the GDP deflator are procyclical, real wages constructed using the producer price index are countercyclical. This result is robust to the data and methods used to compute the comovements.

Cyclicality of real wages in the USA and Germany: New insights from wavelet analysis

This article provides new insights into the cyclical behavior of consumer and producer real wages in the USA and Germany. We apply two methods for the estimation of the cyclical components from the data: the approach based on the structural time series models and the ARIMA-model-based approach combined with the canonical decomposition and a band-pass filter. We examine the extracted cycles drawing on two wavelet concepts: wavelet coherence and wavelet phase angle. In contrast to the analysis in the time or frequency domains, wavelet analysis allows for the identification of possible changes in cyclical patterns over time. From the findings of our study, we can infer that the USA and Germany differ with respect to the lead–lag relationship of real wages and the business cycle. In the USA, both real wages are leading the business cycle in the entire time interval. The German consumer real wage is, on the other hand, lagging the business cycle. For the German producer real wage, the lead–lag pattern changes over time. We also find that real wages in the USA as well in Germany are procyclical or acyclical until 1980 and countercyclical thereafter.

Real Wage Cyclicality in the Eurozone Before and During the Great Recession: Evidence from Micro Data

We study the response of real wages to the business cycle in eight major Eurozone countries before and during the Great Recession. Average real wages are found to be acyclical, but this reflects, in large part, the effect of changes in the composition of the labour force related to unemployment variations over the cycle. Using longitudinal micro data from the ECHP and SILC panels to control for composition effects, we estimate the elasticities of real wage growth to unemployment increases between −0.6 and −1 over the period 1994–2011. Composition effects have been particularly large since 2008, and they explain most of the stagnation or increase in the average wage observed in some countries from 2008 to 2011. In contrast, at a constant labour force composition in terms of education and experience, the figures indicate a significant decrease in average wages during the downturn, particularly in countries most affected by the crisis. Overall, there is no evidence of downward nominal wage rigidity during the Great Recession in most countries in our sample.

Wage cyclicality: Evidence from Spain using social security data

Using longitudinal social security data, this study finds evidence of weak real wage cyclicality in Spain throughout 1988–2011. The baseline estimate of a 0.4 % increase in wages in response to a one percentage point decline in the unemployment rate lies in the lower bound of available estimates for developed countries. Wage cyclicality in a rigid labour market like Spain is mainly driven by workers under temporary contracts and newly-hired workers. I calculate the cyclicality of the net present value of wages in new matches—the relevant piece of information for firms posting vacancies, but a rarely available measure—and find that it is well approximated by the cyclicality of wages for newly-hired workers.

Wage Cyclicality Under Different Regimes of Industrial Relations

We analyze the effect of collective wage agreements and of works councils on the cyclicality of real wages. Using employer–employee data for western Germany (1995–2004), we find that wage adjustments to positive and negative shocks are generally not symmetric. Wage growth increases in all industrial relations regimes when unemployment is falling, but this inverse relationship is weaker when unemployment is rising. Moreover, in plants with individual‐level bargaining, wages do not adjust at all to rising unemployment. Works councils increase wage growth only in firms covered by sectoral agreements, but they do not affect the cyclicality of wages.

Revenge of the Optimum Currency Area

Revenge of the Optimum Currency Area

Monetary policy and real wage cyclicality

This article points to the potential role of monetary policy in affecting the degree of real wage cyclicality. We show that the degree and direction of real wage cyclicality is determined by the interaction of (i) the returns to scale in production, (ii) the nature of aggregate shocks and (iii) monetary policy. Given that production technology is fairly constant in the short run, we suggest that variations in the real wage – output covariance depend largely on the combination of the latter two. Identifying well-documented monetary policy phases in six major Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and accounting for both aggregate demand and supply shocks, we provide empirical evidence to support our main theoretical claim.

State-Level Evidence on the Cyclicality of Real Wages

There is considerable evidence that real wages have become more procyclical over time in the U.S. A novel explanation for this phenomenon has been recently offered by Huang, Liu, and Phaneuf (2004), HLP. They develop a model to show that, as the input-output structure of an economy becomes more sophisticated, the response of real wages to an aggregate demand shock becomes more procyclical (less countercyclical) in an environment with both sticky wages and prices. We test the basic prediction of their model using state-level data in the U.S. We exploit the fact that the economies of individual states in the U.S. exhibit a range of input-output structures in the production process. This variation allows us to examine how the cyclical response of real wages to aggregate monetary policy varies with production structure in order to test the HLP hypothesis. We find strong support for the hypothesis. Our direct empirical test complements the evidence provided by HLP in their original paper.

Real wage cyclicality and the Great Depression: evidence from British engineering and metal working firms

Based on occupation-level payrolls from around 2000 member firms of the British Engineering Employers' Federation we examine the behaviour of real hourly earnings over the 1927--1937 Great Depression cycle. Pay and working time data cover adult male blue-collar workers within engineering and metal working firms. We attempt to tackle the problem of countercyclical aggregation bias linked to workforce composition by distinguishing between pieceworkers and timeworkers who are broken down into 14 occupations and 51 travel-to-work engineering districts. We test for the likely effects on our estimates of within-occupation heterogeneity. For pieceworkers we find significant, though modest, real hourly wage procyclicality. Timeworkers' real hourly wages are found to be acyclical. Due to procyclical fluctuations in weekly hours, the real weekly pay of both pieceworkers and timeworkers are strongly procyclical. We compare hourly and weekly pay outcomes with findings based on more recent micro data. Copyright 2013 Oxford University Press 2012 All rights reserved, Oxford University Press.

Cyclicality of Real Wages in Korea

Abstract On the basis of the Korea Labor & Income Panel Study data over the period 1997 to 2008, this paper finds that real wages are strongly procyclical. For the same period, government-published aggregate real wages also show substantial procyclicality. Overall, measured real wage procyclicality in Korea is comparable to that in the international literature. The analysis also explores between-group heterogeneity in real wage cyclicality, such as the contrast between job changers and stayers.