Real Risk Research Articles

Light intensity as a growth limiting factor for the relict broadleaved spindle Euonymus latifolius (L.) Mill. in Mediterranean refugia. The need to preserve the forest canopy structure.Light intensity as a growth limiting factor for the relict broadleaved

Euonymus latifolius is a paradigmatic nemoral-subMediterranean species of the relict flora from Würmian glaciations in the Iberian Peninsula. Due to its transitional nature, taxa of this plant group could be used as a sensitive indicator to evaluate the effects of climate change on plants in the near future. In the Iberian Peninsula, E. latifolius is scattered in relict, isolated small populations, and catalogued as critically endangered. Previous studies of this taxon indicated the strong dependence of recruitment on canopy cover, which was attributed to the shade-meditated maintenance of soil humidity in the juvenile microhabitat. However, no information is available on the effects of light radiation on this nemoral species. In this study, we investigated the growth response of E. latifolius to photosynthetically active radiation by producing and transplanting saplings along a broad light intensity gradient, i.e., from direct illumination to dense shaded canopy, in a nemoral mixed deciduous forest stand in the Botanic Garden of Castilla-La Mancha. Our results confirmed the marked sciophilous nature of E. latifolius, which is particularly uncommon in the Mediterranean flora, by demonstrating a drastic reduction in growth with the increase of exposure to light intensity, which became critical at high values and even lethal when plants were directly exposed to light. The opening of the canopy in the natural habitat of this species due to simplification of the structure of nemoral communities promoted by climate change in southern latitudes of Europe comprises a real and short-term risk for E. latifolius, and probably for other relict nemoral-subMediterranean species. Conservation actions are recommended.

UVB-Aged Microplastics and Cellular Damage: An in Vitro Study

Plastics are synthetic organic compounds whose widespread use generates enormous waste. Different processes, such as mechanical abrasion, microbiological activity, and UVB irradiation, can fragment the plastic material and generate microplastics (MPs). MPs are ubiquitous, and various organisms, including humans, can ingest or inhale them, with potential adverse health effects. The differences between UV-aged and virgin particles were studied to evaluate the genotoxic damage and oxidative stress induced by polystyrene MPs with 1 and 5 µm sizes on the monocyte-like cell line (THP-1). Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and Ζ-potential measurements were used to characterise MP particles after UVB exposure. Cells exposed to MPs show a widespread change in the cellular environment with the generation of reactive oxidative species (ROS), as indicated by the increased malondialdehyde level. The occurrence of genotoxic damage is correlated to the smaller size and ageing state of the MPs. The biochemical and genomic alterations observed in this in vitro study suggest that MPs, ubiquitous pollutants, following natural degradation and oxidation processes can cause various adverse effects on the health of the exposed population, making it necessary to carry out further studies to better define the real risk.

Rank-and-file employee stock options and audit pricing: Evidence from S&P 1500 firms

In this study, we examine the impact of rank-and-file employee stock options on audit fees. We document compelling evidence that option grants to rank-and-file employees are positively related to audit fees. Further analyses show that this positive relation is more pronounced when a firm's real earnings manipulation risk is higher and when rank-and-file employees are more sensitive to monetary incentives. We also find that options granted to rank-and-file employees are positively related to audit efforts. The evidence suggests that auditors perceive options to rank-and-file employees to be associated with increased audit risk.

Coordination of monetary and macroprudential policies, land finance behavior and risk prevention in the real estate market

ABSTRACT This paper measures the real estate market risk in China by embedding the relative volatility of stock returns in the real estate industry into the Marginal Expected Shortfall Model. Subsequently, we examine the effectiveness of the coordination of monetary and macroprudential policies in preventing real estate market risk based on panel data from cities. Additionally, we investigate the impact of local government’s land finance behavior on the effectiveness of the coordination of these two policies. The results show that the tightening monetary policy can strengthen the restraining effect of macroprudential policy on real estate market risk. From the perspective of risk prevention in the real estate market, whether it is a quantitative or price-based monetary policy tool, land finance behavior can weaken the regulatory effect of the coordination of monetary and macroprudential policies. Moreover, this weakening effect is more pronounced in the regions with high vertical fiscal imbalance and intense economic competition. One of the important policy implications is that regulatory authorities should strengthen the coordination among local fiscal behavior, monetary policy, and macroprudential policy. This will enhance the effectiveness of the coordination of monetary policy and macroprudential policy to prevent risks in the real estate market.

Socio-cultural risks of multimodal large generative models of "artificial intelligence" (GenAI)

The article is devoted to the study of the conditions for ensuring the information security of Russian citizens when using generative "artificial intelligence" technologies in the socio-cultural sphere. The relevance of the topic is due to the modern high rates of development of computer neural networks that generate multimedia content: texts, images, sounds and videos. The developers classify generative technologies as "artificial intelligence", position them as a "new nuclear project" capable of radically increasing the productivity of socio-cultural creativity, and receive significant government, corporate and investment financing. The object of the study is modern multimedia generative models, the subject of the study is the possibility of their use in the socio-cultural sphere of creativity and the associated risks of information security. The purpose of the study is to determine the conditions for ensuring the information security of Russian citizens when using multimodal generative technologies in the socio-cultural sphere. The research materials are scientific publications of recent years (2021–2024) in Russian journals of the HAC list (categories K1, K2) and international Scopus publications (quartiles Q1, Q2) devoted to research and critical analysis of the possibilities of multimodal generative models, associated risks and security tools. The philosophical methodology is applied: theoretical and cultural analysis, synthesis. The scientific novelty of the article is due to the application of a philosophical theoretical and cultural methodology for a critical comparison of the declarations of developers and the actual potential of applications of multimodal generative technologies. The result of the study is an assessment of how greatly exaggerated the risks predicted based on the positioning of the technologies in question as "artificial intelligence". The real risks are proposed to include: the incompatibility of development costs with the usefulness of the results; lowering the cultural level of professional and amateur creativity and worsening the tastes of the mass audience; use in "social engineering", fraud, mass disinformation, fake news, manipulation of public consciousness, "cancellation culture", destruction of traditional values and substitution of socio-cultural identity. The means of ensuring the safety of Russian citizens in the development and use of multimedia generative technologies in the socio-cultural sphere are recommended.

Reducing risk: navigating emotional triangles in clinical work with youth suicidality and self‐harm

AbstractIn clinical work with families in which a young person is at real and significant risk of self‐harm or even death by suicide, predictable emotional triangles both within the family and within the treating system intensify. As understandable fear and worry in parents and clinicians rises in response to potential risk, these emotionally driven relational processes become even more rigid. This typically results in a reduction in cognitive and behavioural flexibility, which can potentially and unwittingly increase the risk of self‐harm by suicide. This article outlines some basic principles pertaining to the notion of emotional triangles, a central concept in Bowen family systems theory; its relevance for clinicians working with suicidal youth and their families; and its application to the context of a community child and youth mental health service. Practical application of theory to clinical work is demonstrated through clinical vignettes that describe the work of two clinicians and their clinical supervisor. The authors reflect on their understanding of the development of emotional triangles in the vignettes presented alongside their efforts to navigate these triangles through the regulation of their own anxiety and more objective thinking.

Cascading risks in a social-ecological system: the South China Sea disputes

The situation in the South China Sea (SCS) is the epitome of a wicked problem where issues cross state boundaries and domains, and where stakeholders range from fishers to governments to shipping industries. This article frames the SCS as a social-ecological system that is composed of biological and social subsystems. It explains how, for over 70 years, global political and economic structures have conditioned state responses – territorialisation, militarisation, extraction, and exploitation – that, in turn, have led to cascading risks for further environmental degradation and conflict at different levels of community. This article uses the grammar of riskification, rather than securitisation, because the crisis in the SCS requires governance rather than military action. Any code of conduct needs to emphasise stewardship rather than ownership and to be climate-centred rather than threat-centred, in order to address the very real risk of the collapsing biological subsystem upon which the social subsystem ultimately depends.

Incidence of central nervous system infection in neurosurgical patients admitted to intensive care

Background: NI (nosocomial infections) represent a real risk for the patient's recovery, with a significant increase in morbidity and mortality, as well as raising the costs of the health system, since they prolong the hospitalization period and entail a high incidence of other subsequent complications. In neurosurgery, the incidence of infectious complications is low, estimated at around 2-3% in general. Material and methods: A retrospective observational analysis was performed at the Hospital General de Agudos F. Santojanni, located in the city of Buenos Aires, CABA, in the intensive care unit, during a period of 7 months . Results: A review of 60 clinical histories was made, of which 21 were selected because they coincide with the objectives that were set out, However, the infected patients were 12 patients (57.14%) . Conclusion: it is necessary to improve the practice of healthcare personnel in the management of ICU patients. That a study on these neurosurgical procedures should be carried out to prevent the risk factors from being as strong as they have been so far

Capitalization Rate and Real Estate Risk Factors: An Analysis of the Relationships for the Residential Market in the City of Rome (Italy)

Abstract The assessment of income-producing properties - considered as the bulk of the existing assets - has rapidly increased. An efficient assessment of the market value of this kind of properties requires an adequate involvement of the main risk factors of the local real estate market for the determination of the capitalization rate for the income approach application. The aim of the work is to identify the most significant local real estate risk factors related to the market, the tenant and the context on the residential capitalization rate. The development of a regressive methodological approach applied to the residential sector of the city of Rome (Italy) is proposed. The obtained results show the susceptibility of the analyzed capitalization rate to the variation of the local real estate risk factors, in particular the per capita income and the variation of the rental values, by also considering the influences of the exogenous shocks and the expectation of the investors. The practical implications of the work consist in the possibility for evaluators to assess the likely changes in the capitalization rate in different residential contexts if variations occur in the most influential local risk factors identified by the proposed model.

The Problem of Disinformation: A Critical Approach

ABSTRACT The term disinformation is generally used to refer to information that is false and harmful, by contrast with misinformation (false but harmless) and malinformation (harmful but true); disinformation is also generally understood to involve coordination and to be intentionally false and/or harmful. However, particular studies rarely apply all these criteria when discussing cases. Doing so would involve applying at least three distinct problem framings: an epistemic framing to detect that a proposition in circulation is false, a behavioural framing to detect the coordinated efforts at communicating that proposition, and a security framing to identify threats or risks of harm attendant on widespread belief in the proposition. As for the question of intentionality, different kinds of clues can be picked up within each framing, although none alone is likely to be conclusive. Yet particular studies tend to centre on or prioritise a single framing. Many today aim to make policy recommendations about combatting disinformation, and they prioritise security concerns over the demands of epistemic diligence. This carries a real risk of disinformation research being ‘weaponised’ against inconvenient truths. Against combative approaches, this article argues for a critical approach which recognizes the importance of epistemic diligence and transparency about normative assumptions.

Feasibility study on thin‐film PV laminates for road integration

AbstractIntegration of photovoltaics (PV) into the built environment (BIPV) and infrastructure (IIPV) is required to increase the installed capacity of PV worldwide, while still leaving sufficient area for other land uses. Although BIPV applications have proven to play a significant role in the energy transition, road integrated IIPV concepts are less developed and bring challenges in mechanical and electrical stability and safety that still need to be addressed. In this work, the feasibility of integrating thin‐film CIGS (Copper Indium Gallium Selenide) modules into road tiles is investigated. PV road stacks were produced by gluing CIGS laminates onto concrete tiles and covering them with epoxy and glass granulates to form impact‐ and anti‐skid layers. IV (current–voltage) characteristics show that, respectively, a thin and thick epoxy layer results in 2% and 6.6% relative loss in power conversion efficiency. Although a thin protective layer would be beneficial to the power conversion efficiency of road modules, raveling tests show increased risk for electrical failure when a thin top layer is used. Pull‐off tests showed that the weakest adhesive strength (0.8 N/mm2) is between the thin‐film laminate and concrete, offering sufficient adhesive strength to at least withstand light traffic loading. Raveling and wheel tracking tests show no mass loss and only minor deformation of the stack, respectively, indicating no real risk of raveling or rutting. Thermal cycling and damp heat exposure of the PV road tiles show that yellowing of the top layers can significantly reduce performance over longer periods of outdoor operation. Damp heat exposure after mechanical loading shows no indication of moisture ingress on any of the tested configurations, suggesting the proposed CIGS laminate stack is able to withstand light traffic loading. From the measurement results, it can be concluded that thin‐film CIGS modules are mechanically and electrically suitable for road integration. Power conversion efficiencies over 12% can be attained with this technology, indicating its potential for renewable energy generation in road infrastructure. Performance stability can especially benefit from alternative top layer materials that maintain high transparency over long lifetimes. Additionally, pilot tests are required to demonstrate the potential of the technology in a controlled outdoor environment.

Real risk Factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis patients.

Real risk Factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis patients.

Machine Learning in Credit Risk Forecasting —— A Survey on Credit Risk Exposure

Machine Learning in Credit Risk Forecasting —— A Survey on Credit Risk Exposure

Future vet: Current trends in demand for veterinary services on dairy farms

The industry that is served by the dairy veterinarian is dy­namic and operates under conditions where the value of its end products decrease in real dollar value over time. This exerts pressure on that industry toward constant improvements in operating efficiencies and cost reductions. It is no surprise then that as part of the service sector to this industry, the practicing dairy veterinarian will need to be as dynamic and constantly striving to improve and increase the value of its offerings to this ever-evolving sector. The veterinary work force is highly select­ed and highly trained. It has been an integral part of advance­ment in the production of dairy foods. With a forward-looking attitude striving for constant discovery of new and useful ideas for advancing cow health and productivity, it will be possible to assure that this remains true. Conversely, lacking this outlook, there is the real risk that the veterinarian becomes less relevant on dairy farms over time as those farms compete on a global level for market share.

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Real Effective Exchange Rate and Systemic Risks --Based on TVP-VAR Modeling

Today's international situation is complex and volatile, and the impact of economic policy uncertainty on systemic financial risk has attracted much attention. In this essay, the TVP-VAR model is used to investigate the mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on systemic financial risk and real effective exchange rate. It is found that its effect on both was characterized by time-varying and nonlinear, and the impact on systemic financial risk is mainly long-term, while the impact of real effective exchange rate is mainly short- and medium-term as long as. Meanwhile, the impact of economic policy uncertainty on systemic financial risk and real effective exchange rate under some specific risk events is more lasting.

DEVELOPMENT OF THE DERMAL EFFECT OF PESTICIDES ON PROFESSIONAL CONTINGENTS USING INNOVATIVE 3RIVE 3D TECHNOLOGY

The skin is the most vulnerable organ when spraying pesticides on fields. Farmers are also exposed to pesticides during mixing, loading of pesticides, and when cleaning equipment and disposing of empty containers. The aim. To study and analyze the features of the risk of pesticides dermal exposure to professional contingents during treatments using the innovative 3RIVE 3D pesticide application technology. Materials and methods. The 3RIVE 3D innovative technological system of introducing was used to applicate Brigade 3Rive 3D, SC formulation. Field experiments on the study of working conditions when using the pesticide were conducted in various soil and climatic regions of Eastern Europe. Statistical processing of the results was carried out using a package of licensed statistical programs IBM SPSS StatisticsBase v.22 and MS Excel. Research results and discussion. During the conducted research, no bifenthrin contamination was found on the open skin of the operator and the tractor driver, who were processing corn crops with the Brigade 3Rive 3D, SC formulation. However, the operator's gloves were found to contain 0.025 mg of bifenthrin. Calculation of the unitless CASd value on the possibility of skin acute effects when applying the formulation showed that bifenthrin and the Brigade 3Rive 3D, SC formulation based on it are characterized by sufficient selectivity of action on the target object (CASd – 645 and 162, respectively, i.e. > 100) and a low level of danger acute dermal toxic effects for workers, which is due to low values of effective consumption rates. The real dermal risk of bifenthrin exposure when using the Brigade 3Rive3D, SC formulation was significantly lower compared to the risk of workers involved in “traditional” air treatment and treatment with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (p=0.009-0.048 according to Wilcoxon's W-criterion); in comparison with rod and fan processing – it is non-significantly lower (р=0.262-1.000). There was a similar picture in comparison with the dermal aggravated risk – significantly lower in comparison with the risk of workers involved in “traditional” air treatment and processing with the help of UAVs (p=0.009 according to Wilcoxon's W-criterion); in comparison with rod and fan treatment – non-significantly lower (р=0.262-1.000). Conclusion. It was established that the studied active substance bifenthrin and the Brigade 3Rive 3D, SC formulation based on it are characterized by sufficient selectivity of dermal action on the target object and a low probability of acute dermal effects. A higher probability of acute inhalation poisoning than dermal exposure was revealed.

A metabolomics perspective on the effect of environmental micro and nanoplastics on living organisms: A review

The increasing trend regarding the use of plastics has arisen an exponential concern on the fate of their derived products to the environment. Among these derivatives, microplastics and nanoplastics (MNPs) have been featured for their associated environmental impact due to their low molecular size and high surface area, which has prompted their ubiquitous transference among all environmental interfaces. Due to the heterogenous chemical composition of MNPs, the study of these particles has focused a high number of studies, as a result of the myriad of associated physicochemical properties that contribute to the co-transference of a wide range of contaminants, thus becoming a major challenge for the scientific community. In this sense, both primary and secondary MNPs are well-known to be adscribed to industrial and urbanized areas, from which they are massively released to the environment through a multiscale level, involving the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere. Consequently, much research has been conducted on the understanding of the interconnection between those interfaces, that motivate the spread of these contaminants to biological systems, being mostly represented by the biosphere, especially phytosphere and, finally, the anthroposphere. These findings have highlighted the potential hazardous risk for human health through different mechanisms from the environment, requiring a much deeper approach to define the real risk of MNPs exposure. As a result, there is a gap of knowledge regarding the environmental impact of MNPs from a high-throughput perspective. In this review, a metabolomics-based overview on the impact of MNPs to all environmental interfaces was proposed, considering this technology a highly valuable tool to decipher the real impact of MNPs on biological systems, thus opening a novel perspective on the study of these contaminants.

Reversal of Soleus Muscle Atrophy in Older Adults: A Non-Volitional Exercise Intervention for a Changing Climate.

The World Health Organization recommends that older adults undertake at least 150 minutes of moderate intensity physical activity over the course of each week in order to maintain physical, mental, and social health. This goal turns out to be very difficult for most community dwelling older adults to achieve, due to both actual and perceived barriers. These barriers include personal health limitations, confinement issues, and self-imposed restrictions such as fear of injury. Climate change exacerbates the confinement issues and injury fears among the elderly. To assist older adults in obtaining the benefits of increased physical activity under increasingly challenging climate conditions, we propose a targeted non-volitional intervention which could serve as a complement to volitional physical activity. Exogenous neuro-muscular stimulation of the soleus muscles is a non-invasive intervention capable of significantly increasing cardiac output in sedentary individuals. Long-term daily use has been shown to improve sleep, reduce bone loss, and reverse age-related cognitive decline, all of which are significant health concerns for older adults. These outcomes support the potential benefit of exogenous neuro-muscular stimulation as a complementary form of physical activity which older adults may find convenient to incorporate into their daily life when traditional forms of exercise are difficult to achieve due to barriers to completing traditional physical activities as a result of in-home or in-bed confinement, perceptual risks, or real environmental risks such as those arising from climate change.

The financial risk of real estate combined factor analysis with grey prediction in Liaoning Province.

The importance of real estate development has been widely accepted by all countries. Through early warning and avoidance of real estate financial risks, it can effectively promote the healthy and healthy development of the real estate industry, avoiding the impact of accidental factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and promoting the overall economic development. Based on multiple regression analysis and grey prediction methods, this article constructs a real estate financial risk estimation model, and the real estate financial risk is estimated using the relevant data of Liaoning Province from 2001 to 2020. Analyzing the research results of financial risks in Liaoning Province, we can find that the real estate financial risks reached the peak in 2013, and then the real estate financial risks gradually showed a slow decline trend. In general, the financial risks in Liaoning Province are controllable. The study of financial risks in Liaoning Province will help to judge the development of the real estate industry and promote the continuous improvement of the overall economy. The article, through the study of real estate financial risks in Liaoning Province, can promote the development of regional real estate in Liaoning Province and promote the overall economic development of Liaoning Province, which has strong practical significance. The study of real estate financial risks, relevant risk research theories can be enriched, the identification of financial risks can be improved, and the study of real estate financial risks can be strengthened. The article uses a combination of multivariate statistics and grey fuzzy theory to complete the study of real estate financial risks. Therefore, through the exploration of multivariate statistics and grey fuzzy theory, its application value can be elevated.

Assessment of the risk of venous thrombosis and embolism in operated patients with acute surgical pathology of abdominal organs against the background of COVID–19

Assessment of the risk of venous thrombosis and embolism in operated patients with acute surgical pathology of abdominal organs against the background of COVID–19