Real Rate Research Articles

<span>A New Monetary Policy Tool: The Real Neutral Rate Yield Curve for Canada</span>

<span>A New Monetary Policy Tool: The Real Neutral Rate Yield Curve for Canada</span>

Al and Autonomous Systems: An Experiment in Industry 5.0 Transformation

Important practical consequences are shown in this experimental study of AI and autonomous systems integration in the context of Industry 5.0. AI optimization of the product manufacturing process resulted in a 35% decrease in the real faulty rate and a significant 20% rise in production rates, reaching an actual rate of 1440 units per hour. The actual defective rate was just 1.3%. Since autonomous robots were introduced, work completion rates have increased by 18%, totaling 2,520 tasks completed, and maintenance expenses have decreased by 9%, amounting to a $450 real cost savings. Furthermore, with an actual faulty rate of 2.6%, the AI-driven quality control method showed an astounding 35% decrease in defective goods. Ultimately, significant 15% energy consumption decrease was accomplished using AI-based energy optimization solutions, translating into real energy savings of 1,500 kWh. These results highlight the real advantages of combining AI and Autonomous Systems in Industry 5.0, such as increased productivity, lower costs, better product quality, and sustainability.

The Impact of the Real Estate Tax Reforms on the Tax Burden in the Czech Republic

The article deals with the evaluation of the impact of real estate tax reforms on their tax burden in the Czech Republic in the years 1993–2024. Real estate tax is one of the direct taxes, and in comparison, with income taxes, its importance lies mainly in providing income for local budgets. The unit type of tax rate specifically determines real estate rates. Facts, that tax reform in the area or real estate tax are minimal, the tax burden is often decreasing. As the tax burden decreases, so does the tax revenue. However, when tax reform occurs, this reform is often characterized by a significant increase in the tax burden. This is also evidenced by the last implemented tax reform in 2024 when rates increased by approximately 80%. The previous tax reform occurred in 2010 and increased rates by 100%. Despite this increase, the real tax burden decreased compared to the first analysed year 1993 and the last year 2024. The results of the regression analysis show that inflation is the factor that negatively affects tax revenue. To minimalize a decrease in tax revenue from 2024, a provision containing an inflation coefficient is implemented in the legislation as part of the 2024 reform. Conversely, a reduction in the tax burden was not found for real estate intended for permanent housing in small municipalities with up to 600 inhabitants. On the contrary, there was an increase in the tax burden. Scientific methods such as analysis and comparison, as well as regression and correlation analysis are used to achieve the paper’s goals.

Effectiveness of Water-Amine Combined Process for CO2 Extraction from Biogas

Abstract The EU countries are implementing biomethane production projects from biogas, supplying it to the natural gas distribution grid, or using it as motor fuel. It is also extremely relevant for Ukraine, supposing the problems with gas import due to Russian aggression. Biogas production from landfills, agriculture waste, and sewage is already implemented in Ukraine, so the next step must be biomethane production on an industrial scale and the selection of biogas separation technology is important. Using 11 years of industrial experience in biogas production from landfills, wide experience of the different methane-containing gases separations, and small companies’ industrial possibilities, the most applicable separation technologies for Ukraine were selected: amine, water, and combined water amine carbon dioxide separation. These technologies had compared using computer simulation with real landfill biogas flow rate debt. Results of a software simulation of the most applicable water-amine absorption technology were verified using a laboratory setup. For carbon dioxide concentration in biogas at 32–42 % vol., the specific energy consumption when using water absorption is on average 2 times less compared to amine absorption, but at the same time, the loss of methane due to its solubility in water during water absorption amounted to 7.1–7.6 %, with practically no losses in amine absorption, and minor losses at 0.17–2.8 % in combined water-amine technology. The energy consumption of combined water-amine absorption is comparable to that of water absorption due to: a) reduction of heat losses for the regeneration process of saturated amine absorbent, as part of carbon dioxide has already been removed with water technology; b) using the methane excess to compensate power consumption of the biogas compressor during the preliminary water absorption of carbon dioxide and/or to compensate heat costs of the saturated amine absorbent regeneration

Drivers of the natural long-term rate of interest (and why the economy hasn’t tanked)

Abstract Long-term borrowing costs have been on a path of near continuous decline for the last several decades, with huge consequences for asset values, government finances, borrowers and savers. To shed light on why, we have estimated a global model that brings together an extensive set of drivers of the natural rate of interest for 12 advanced economies, using data spanning half a century. We find that slower growth and the age structure of the population accounted for about half of the three percentage point decline in the real natural rate for the USA between 1970 and a trough in the mid-2010s. Global spillovers account for a bit more than a third of the decline. Our model suggests the natural rate in the USA has climbed more than half a percentage point since the trough, partly reflecting extraordinary fiscal stimulus in the USA. Rather than on overnight rates, our model is estimated on 10-year borrowing costs. That is because monetary policy has increasingly relied on squeezing the whole yield curve to support demand. Importantly, when viewed through a longer-term lens, US monetary policy does not look as tight as it does when looking at short-term rates alone. This may help to explain why the economy has been so resilient to the post-pandemic hiking cycle.

On the Real Rate of Interest in a Closed Economy

On the Real Rate of Interest in a Closed Economy

The bycatch estimate of threatened marine megavertebrates in Moroccan fleets operating in the Mediterranean Coast

This study addresses the information gaps by a descriptive analysis of bycatch of vulnerable species (i.e. seabirds, sea turtles, seals, marine mammals, sharks and rays’ species) in in Moroccan Mediterranean area. The present study is one of the first researches to provide an evaluation of the bycatch of different threatened species in relation with fishing activities. The bycatch monitoring was conducted on board commercial fishing vessels operating in the Mediterranean coast of Morocco from March 2019 to Jun 2022. A total of 2203 days at sea observations, a total of 5792 questionnaires were performed to collect information on the interactions between these groups of vulnerable species and the three main vessels groups operating in the country (i.e. trawlers, long liners and purse-seiners). Considering all threatened taxa of monitored vulnerable species, sharks and rays had the highest percentage with 93% of the total bycatch in number. They are the most threatened by fishing among the megafaunas. The bycatch rate of common dolphins made up more than 0.03%. For sea turtles and sea birds it’s less than 0.02 %. Those estimates rates could underestimate the real rates in comparison to the quantities caught by the target species. Despite the incidental captures of those species were very low, there is an urgent need for their conservation given their crucial role in the ecosystems. Finally, some mitigations trials were proposed and additional research will be implemented to improve knowledge on bycatch estimates, fully understanding fisheries practices and achieves the goal of bycatch-reduction in these fisheries

IPOs as Catalysts for Retail Investor Wealth Creation: Evidence from the Indian Stock Market

The study delves into the dynamics of wealth creation for retail investors in the context of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) within the Indian equity markets. Against the backdrop of a burgeoning retail investor base, the research offers a comprehensive analysis spanning April 2012 to December 2022, evaluating short-term and long-term IPO performance metrics. The study reveals nuanced insights into wealth creation dynamics by scrutinizing listing day returns, first-week to third-year returns, and market-adjusted returns vis-à-vis the Nifty50 Index. Notably, the research suggests that while IPOs exhibit promise with positive listing day returns, sustaining growth over extended horizons poses challenges. The hypothesis of inflation serving as a pragmatic hurdle rate for retail investors is explored, offering a novel perspective on wealth preservation. It also sheds light on the significant variability in the Real Rate of Returns (RRRs) among IPOs, with some contributing to wealth generation while others result in wealth erosion. This underscores the importance of retail investors carefully assessing and managing risks, emphasizing the need for prudent portfolio diversification and effective risk mitigation strategies, particularly over longer investment horizons.

Market-based estimates of the natural real rate: evidence from latin american bond markets

We provide market-based estimates of the natural real rate, that is, the steady-state short-term real interest rate, for Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. Our approach uses a dynamic term structure finance model estimated directly on the prices of individual inflation- indexed bonds with adjustments for real term and bond-specific liquidity premia. First, we find that inflation-indexed bond liquidity premia in all three countries are sizable with significant variation. Second, we find large differences in their estimated equilibrium real rates with Brazil’s being large and volatile, Mexico’s stable, but elevated, while Chile’s is low and has fallen persistently.

The Impact of Financial Sector Development on the Sustainable Economic Growth of Pakistan

Purpose: The study examine the impact of financial Institutions and markets development on the sustainable economic growth of Pakistan.
 Design/Methodology/Approach: Time series data of Pakistan is analyzed from 1985 to 2022 by using OLS.
 Findings: Financial institutions development particularly banks are playing positive role in the real GDP growth rate of Pakistan. Financial openness has neutral effect, intermediation and liquidity has positive effect and financial institutions expansion has negative effect on the real GDP. The financial markets development is playing negative role in the real GDP growth rate in Pakistan due to weak, fragile and inefficient market institutions.
 Implications/Originality/Value: Our study findings suggest that for a sustainable economic growth Government should encourage and support financial institutions particularly banks to increase economic activities in the country.

부동산 임대료의 현금 흐름에 대한 리스크 분석

Investment decisions in real estate development projects need to be made more flexibly in uncertain environmental changes such as legal and economic conditions in competitive business in the rapidly changing real estate market. In analyzing the economic feasibility of real estate development projects, the valuation method of the investment plans using the traditional NPV method is evaluated based on a fixed standard planned in advance. Therefore, it was not possible to flexibly cope with uncertain changes in the business environment. In the face of growing uncertainty in the real estate development market, a more sophisticated evaluation method that can evaluate investment plans is needed according to changes in the market. Accordingly, the valuation of real estate development projects was analyzed using real options approach. In this study, an analytical framework was presented to evaluate the return value of commercial rental properties from a financial engineering perspective and to analyze the risk of rent cash flows. Real estate rate assessment methods, risk analysis methods, rent derivatives valuation methods, and real estate option valuation methods were analyzed for uncertainty in rent, tenant residence, vacancy, and real estate price using Monte Carlo simulation. In terms of financial engineering probability models, research in the field of valuation and risk analysis of real estate is now in its infancy, and the framework for analysis itself is not sufficiently established. Based on these studies, various analysis methods will be developed, and in this sense, this study can play a fundamental role.

Fusion Assessment of Oblique Lumbar Interbody Fusion Using Demineralized Bone Matrix: A 2-Year Prospective Study.

Although several studies have reported successful fusion rates after oblique lumbar interbody fusion (OLIF) using allografts or dimerized bone matrix (DBM) instead of autografts, whether OLIF can achieve satisfactory solid fusion without the use of autografts remains unclear. This study investigated the real fusion rates after OLIF using allografts and DBM, which were evaluated using both dynamic radiographs and computed tomography scans. We enrolled 79 consecutive patients who underwent minimally invasive OLIF followed by percutaneous pedicle screw fixation. All patients were treated with OLIF between L2 and L5 and underwent radiographic and clinical follow-ups at 12, 18, and 24 months after surgery. Radiographic assessment of fusion was performed using the modified BrantigaSteffee-Fraser (mBSF) scale, which was categorized as follows: grades I (radiographic pseudoarthrosis), II (indeterminate fusion), and III (solid radiographic fusion). Other radiologic and clinical outcomes were evaluated using the following parameters: vertebral slippage distance, disc height, subsidence, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), and visual analogue scale (VAS). Clinical outcomes demonstrated significant improvements in the VAS scores for back pain, leg pain, and ODI after surgery. Subsidence was present in 34 cases (35.4%) at 12 months postoperatively, which increased to 47.9% and reached 50.0% at 1.5 years and 2 years after surgery, respectively. The solid fusion rate after OLIF was 32.3% at 1 year, increased to 58.3% at 1.5 years, and reached 72.9% at 2 years. Radiographic pseudoarthrosis was 24.0% at 1 year, which decreased to 6.3% at 1.5 years and 3.1% at 2 years. OLIF is a safe and effective surgical procedure for the treatment of degenerative lumbar diseases. The mBSF scale, which simultaneously evaluates both dynamic angles and bone bridge formation, offers great reliability for the radiological assessment of fusion. Moreover, OLIF using allografts and DBM, which is performed on one or 2 levels at L2-5, can achieve satisfactory fusion rates within 2 years after surgery.

Equipment Asset Management and Equipment Health Based on Fuzzy Algorithm Evaluation Model

In this paper, we addresses the growing importance of enterprise equipment asset management efficiency. Proposing an advanced approach rooted in combinatorial principles and scientific computing, the study introduces a comprehensive evaluation model for equipment value. Overcoming the limitations of traditional models, a fuzzy algorithm establishes a three-dimensional cross-compound element, encompassing equipment reliability, stability, and accuracy. Hierarchical analysis and the entropy power method determine weights for evaluation indexes, facilitating a quantitative assessment of measurement and production equipment health. Validation through a real energy meter production line demonstrates the model’s effectiveness in comparison to real defect rates. This innovative evaluation model not only offers asset managers a new method for assessing equipment assets but also presents a forward-looking strategy for enterprises to enhance their asset management proficiency, emphasizing the synergies between combinatorics and scientific computing in addressing contemporary economic challenges.

LIFE INSURANCE DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE STUDY OF NIGERIA (2000-2022)

This research looked at the development of life insurance and economic growth using Nigeria as a case study from 2000 to 2022. Specifically, the authors examined the causal relationship between life insurance development and economic growth, analyzed the effect of life insurance penetration and life insurance density on real GDP growth rate. Data used for the study were collected from sources including the World Development Indicator database, Global Financial Development Indicator database, NIA digest database, and Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. Granger causality test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration were used in the investigation approach. The granger causality test result indicated that there is no causal connection between Nigeria's economic growth and the development of life insurance. According to ARDL estimate results, life insurance density and penetration had a negligible positive effect on the real GDP growth rate. Hence, this study established that life insurance development is yet to contribute to economic growth in Nigeria, due mainly to its low level and mode of operations. Therefore, this study recommended among others that life insurance institutions should also increase their scope of operations to be directly involved in business investments other than financial market investment to enhance their level of significance in the growth process of Nigeria.

The distributional impacts of transportation networks in China

We document that the quality of roads and railroads vary substantially over time and space in China, and neglecting these variations biases the distributional impacts of transportation networks. To account for quality differences, we construct a new panel dataset and approximate quality using the design speed of roads and railroads that varies by vintage, class, and terrain at the pixel level. We then build a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model for multiple modes, transportation routes, and forward-looking migration decisions. Our findings demonstrate that disregarding quality differences leads to a median bias of approximately 31% in estimating real wage growth rates at the prefecture level. Moreover, this bias is non-random and correlates with the initial conditions of the prefectures, resulting in significant errors when predicting the distributional effects of transportation networks.

Consolidated Budgets of the Subjects of the Russian Federation in the First Half of 2023. Budget Risks are Increasing

The performance of the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation in the first half of this year was characterized by real growth rates of income taxreceipts and only nominal growth personal income tax receipts.The increase in federal transfer receipts was partly determined by the financing of the budgets of the new regions of the Russian Federation. In addition to the growth of economic activity, the dynamics of own revenues of regional budgets in the first half of the year was influenced by factors such as the cancellation of income tax payments within consolidated groups of taxpayers and the accelerated procedure for personal income tax reimbursement.The growth of expenditures of regional budgets lagged behind the growth of revenues, but significantly outpaced last year’s figures, which resulted in a reduction in the surplus of subfederal budgets compared to the previous year. The trend towards an increase in the volume of state and municipal debt has continued against the background of an increase in debt to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. The growth of public debt is taking place both in relatively prosperous regions and in problematic ones. The reduction in the volume of debt obligations by individual subjects of the Russian Federation cannot yet change the overall picture. The approved law on the federal budget for 2024 and subsequent years assumes a reduction in federal support for regional budgets against the background of an increase in spending needs and contains significant risks for the execution of sub-federal budgets.

Improving the method of lens mass preparation for age assessment in the European brown hare (Lepus europaeus)

Research was conducted on the European hare (Lepus europaeus Pall.), one of the most numerous and important small game species both in Europe and in the Republic of Serbia. The aim of the research was to examine the possibility of modifying the standard method, which is a standard in the Republic of Serbia, for determining the age of hares based on the mass of their lenses in order to shorten its duration. Additionally, the goal was to investigate whether there was a difference in the age structure determined by the standard and modified methods. For the purpose of processing and analyzing samples, a total of 410 hare heads were collected from hunting grounds in Central Serbia and Vojvodina, and only heads with intact lenses of both eyes (399) were included in the analysis, resulting in the examination of 798 lenses. It was determined that there was no statistically significant difference in the lens mass between the standard and modified methods, both for age categories of hares up to one year and over one year. High correlation coefficients were found, indicating a strong relationship between the lens mass obtained by the standard and modified methods within both age categories. Furthermore, the real growth rates of hares determined by the standard and modified methods were equal.

The effect of water pollution regulation on prices: Evidence from Wisconsin's phosphorus rule and sewer utility bills

In this paper, we estimate the consumer impacts of Wisconsin's “phosphorus rule”, which created the most stringent statewide water quality and effluent standards for phosphorus in the country. We examine how compliance with the rule affects real billing rates at sewer utilities in Wisconsin, providing the first empirical estimates of water pollution regulation on utility billing rates. We find that compliance with the phosphorous rule increases the average real sewer utility bill in our sample by 7–12%. Our results imply that sewer utilities pass through approximately $65.8 million to residential sewer rate payers annually, which is roughly ⅔ of the total sewer utility compliance costs of the rule. State government subsidies cover an additional ¼ of the sewer utility compliance costs.

Africa's Great Moderation

Abstract Over the past 30 years, African economies have experienced remarkable improvements in macroeconomic conditions, characterised by higher and more stable real per-capita growth rates and lower and more stable inflation. This paper documents the persistent decline in macroeconomic volatility at the aggregate and sectoral levels and seeks to provide explanations. Sectoral analysis shows a particularly strong reduction of growth volatility in agriculture and, to a lesser extent, in services. Classical structural change only explains a small fraction of the moderation. Analysis of further factors yields that changes in structural characteristics such as institutions, trade intensity and diversification, natural resource dependence or conflict incidence do not explain the moderation. On the positive side, the paper provides evidence to suggest that changes in the external environment, improved macroeconomic policy frameworks and ‘softer’ structural improvements, such as the deepening of the domestic financial sector, were important in reducing macroeconomic volatility on the continent.

Reseller or Market? E-platform strategy under blockchain-enabled recycling

Promoting the development of the e-platform and circular economy is significant. This study focuses on a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) comprising an individual manufacturer and an individual e-platform. We construct a differential game model from the perspective of dynamic changes in product goodwill and study the issue of selection of sales mode for e-platforms when there exists an application of blockchain to solve the recycling problem. The results show that: The decision of an e-platform to build a blockchain in CLSC depends on the trade-off between blockchain implementation costs and effectiveness, which is determined by the product's real recovery rate. The decision to adopt blockchain does not affect the e-platform's selection of the sales mode, compared to the commission rate, which is the main influencing factor. Interestingly, in the region where the platform and the manufacturer agree, there is a counter-intuitive situation where the manufacturer and the e-platform agree on the reseller mode when the commission rate takes a value close to zero. Blockchain can not only enhance the performance of the CLSC backward chain by increasing the amount of reverse recycling but also improve the performance of the CLSC forward chain by increasing brand goodwill by raising the favorability of environmentally conscious consumers. Blockchain can enhance economic, environmental, and social performance (EES) across CLSC when the construction cost is within a certain threshold, achieving Pareto improvement in both reseller and market modes.