Real Interest Research Articles

Functional shocks to inflation expectations and real interest rates and their macroeconomic effects

Functional shocks to inflation expectations and real interest rates and their macroeconomic effects

Garnet solid-state electrolyte: A new single-step elaboration by electric arc-melting

The garnet Li7-xLa3Zr2-xTaxO12 (LLZTO) has attracted a real scientific interest in the last decade as it is one of the safest solid-state electrolytes for next generation high energy lithium batteries. However, its elaboration requires several steps from phase stabilization to densification of the part. This final step, with long and high temperature treatment induces lithium loss due to sublimation. Electric arc-melting allows short time elaboration of dense parts in one-step, eventually minimizing Li sublimation. Thus, the synthesis by arc-melting of LLZTO is exposed here. Stabilized phases and microstructures are studied depending on chemical composition and casting parameters. The direct obtaining of dense parts instead of powder allows better moisture stability thanks to fast growth of protective layer preventing in-depth penetration of the H+/Li+ exchange. Finally, ionic conductivity of fused parts is in a similar range to sintered pellets produced using Spark Plasma Sintering with powdered fused parts. Those results confirm the interest of electric arc-melting synthesis as an alternative LLZTO elaboration.

An empirical analysis of consumption and current account in an intertemporal stochastic model

This study employs a non-linear state space model and applies Extended Kalman Filter to analyze the effects of shocks to output, investment and government consumption for the US economy within a stochastic intertemporal current account framework for the particular period 1989Q2-2019Q4. It is shown that consumption and current account dynamics are successfully explained and the real interest rate, which is needed to rationalize the consumption and income relationship, is found to be fairly reasonable. The parameter estimates of the macroeconomic variables in the model indicate high accuracy of forecast according to the MAPE criteria for model evaluation. The intertemporal substitution and compensation effects allow aggregate consumption function to absorb exogenous shocks and reflect the smooth transition of the economy to the reestablishment of equilibrium position.

The Impact of Financial Development, Net Foreign Assets and Domestic Businesses on Export Performance: A case of Singapore Economy

The effects of financial sector liberalization; foreign assets, domestic businesses in the form of listed companies and domestic manufacturing, and real interest rate on export performance of Singapore economy are tested by using ARDL bounds testing approach by covering period from 1978-2023. The empirical results suggest that liberalizing financial sector and foreign assets significantly accelerate export performance. This study considers two proxies for domestic businesses – listed companies and manufacturing. The results uncover the significantly expansionary effects of both indicators of domestic businesses on export performance. Lastly, real interest rate is adversely affecting export performance in Singapore. This study suggests that by expanding domestic businesses; increasing investments in foreign assets, liberalizing financial sector and reducing real interest rate can give boost to exports in Singapore.

UTJECAJ ODABRANIH MAKROEKONOMSKIH VARIJABLI NA CIJENE STAMBENIH OBJEKATA U HRVATSKOJ

Recognizing the macroeconomic determinants that have a statistically significant influence on the formation of house prices is in the interest of the general public due to its informative effect on various interest groups involved in housing construction. Thus, real estate buyers, investors, as well as local government and self-government units should be interested in this information because monitoring of standard macroeconomic variables can provide conclusions about the possible development of residential property prices. Previously conducted research can be classified into four distinctive categories depending on what they take as determining variables: microelements specific to individual micro location, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, standard macroeconomic variables, or tourism development. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of selected macroeconomic variables on residential property prices in Croatia. This study employs Autometrics, i.e. an automatic computer implementation of general-to-specific VAR (vector autoregressive) modelling framework and quarterly data on real GDP, domestic credit, consumer prices, interest rate, tourist arrivals and house prices in the period from March 2005 to September 2022. Performed Granger causality tests and impulse response functions analysis indicate that an increase in real GDP, domestic credit and tourist arrivals increases house prices in Croatia while an increase in consumer prices and interest rate reduces them.

Liability of Health Professionals Using Sensors, Telemedicine and Artificial Intelligence for Remote Healthcare.

In the last few decades, there has been an ongoing transformation of our healthcare system with larger use of sensors for remote care and artificial intelligence (AI) tools. In particular, sensors improved by new algorithms with learning capabilities have proven their value for better patient care. Sensors and AI systems are no longer only non-autonomous devices such as the ones used in radiology or surgical robots; there are novel tools with a certain degree of autonomy aiming to largely modulate the medical decision. Thus, there will be situations in which the doctor is the one making the decision and has the final say and other cases in which the doctor might only apply the decision presented by the autonomous device. As those are two hugely different situations, they should not be treated the same way, and different liability rules should apply. Despite a real interest in the promise of sensors and AI in medicine, doctors and patients are reluctant to use it. One important reason is a lack clear definition of liability. Nobody wants to be at fault, or even prosecuted, because they followed the advice from an AI system, notably when it has not been perfectly adapted to a specific patient. Fears are present even with simple sensors and AI use, such as during telemedicine visits based on very useful, clinically pertinent sensors; with the risk of missing an important parameter; and, of course, when AI appears "intelligent", potentially replacing the doctors' judgment. This paper aims to provide an overview of the liability of the health professional in the context of the use of sensors and AI tools in remote healthcare, analyzing four regimes: the contract-based approach, the approach based on breach of duty to inform, the fault-based approach, and the approach related to the good itself. We will also discuss future challenges and opportunities in the promising domain of sensors and AI use in medicine.

Anti-Vasculogenic, Antioxidant, and Anti-Inflammatory Activities of Sulfated Polysaccharide Derived from Codium tomentosum: Pharmacokinetic Assay.

The purpose of this paper was to investigate the anti-inflammatory and anti-angiogenic activities of sulfated polysaccharide from C. tomentosum (PCT) using carrageenan (CARR)-induced paw edema in a rat model and anti-vasculogenic activity on a chorioallantoic membrane assay (CAM) model. Based on in vitro tests of anti-radical, total antioxidant, and reducing power activities, PCT presents a real interest via its antioxidant activity and ability to scavenge radical species. The in vivo pharmacological tests suggest that PCT possesses anti-inflammatory action by reducing paw edema and leukocyte migration, maintaining the redox equilibrium, and stabilizing the cellular level of several pro-/antioxidant system markers. It could significantly decrease the malondialdehyde levels and increase superoxide dismutase, glutathione peroxidase, and glutathione activities in local paw edema and erythrocytes during the acute inflammatory reaction of CARR. PCT pretreatment was effective against DNA alterations in the blood lymphocytes of inflamed rats and reduced the hematological alteration by restoring blood parameters to normal levels. The anti-angiogenic activity results revealed that CAM neovascularization, defined as the formation of new vessel numbers and branching patterns, was decreased by PCT in a dose-dependent manner, which supported the in silico bioavailability and pharmacokinetic findings. These results indicated the therapeutic effects of polysaccharides from C. tomentosum and their possible use as anti-proliferative molecules based on their antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anti-angiogenic activities.

The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Bangladeshi Exports: An ARDL Bound Testing Technique

The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Bangladeshi Exports: An ARDL Bound Testing Technique

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Loan Growth of Banks with a Focus on Non-Performing Loans

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the intertemporal relationship between the non-performing loan ratio and bank lending and to analyze factors affecting loan growth using data from Mongolian commercial banks. There has been a lack of research on Mongolian banks’ lending behavior due to their short history. Thus, this paper investigates the effect of the non-performing loan ratio on total loan growth using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model with panel data. We used bank-related variables such as the loan-to-deposit ratio, provision-to-gross loan portfolio ratio, equity-to-asset ratio, and liquidity ratio, and economic variables such as the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, interest rate, and inflation rate. The results of this paper show that non-performing loans have a significant negative impact on total loan growth. The implication of this result is that non-performing loans affect banking efficiency, which, in turn, affects financial stability and the real economy. Moreover, high non-performing loans reduce banks’ profits. Also, this paper found that loss reserve and the liquidity ratio have a positive effect on total loan growth, while the effects of the loan-to-deposit ratio and the equity capital ratio were not found to be significant. Additionally, from a macro perspective, the inflation rate has a positive effect on the total loan growth rate, while the interest rate has a positive effect on total loan growth rather than a negative effect. And real gross domestic product (GDP) growth does not affect the total loan growth rate.

The impact of the interest rate on industrial production during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic

The impact of the real interest rate on industrial production growth in developed and developing countries was analyzed during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Panel data analysis was implemented for the monthly period between January 2002 and December 2020. The impact of the real interest rate on industrial production growth was negative for both developed and developing countries in all periods. Moreover, during the 2008 financial crisis, the relationship between the real interest rate and industrial production growth was negative for both developed and developing countries. However, the effect of the real interest rate was stronger in developed countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of the real interest rate on industrial production growth has been much stronger than that of the 2008 financial crisis. Its effect has also been more significant in developed countries. The result indicates that during the crisis and the pandemic, a decrease in the real interest rate plays an important role in stimulating industrial production. Pulling the real interest rate down can be an effective tool for promoting growth and can lessen negative consequences in economic activities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, as the inflation rate is very low in developed countries, the risk of depreciation in the exchange rate in developing countries can be limited following expansionary monetary policy. Hence, other alternatives such as government intervention into economic activities by fiscal policy increase in importance beside monetary policy.

A Model of Zombie Firms and the Perils of Negative Real Interest Rates

A Model of Zombie Firms and the Perils of Negative Real Interest Rates

International aggregate risk: Effects on financial stability

The increasing interconnectedness of financial and economic systems has led to the emergence of global risks that can impact financial stability. In this paper, we explore how aggregate risk on a global scale can affect the stability of financial systems. We present a simple model that considers an exogenous parameter indicating the concentration of international credit risk in both domestic and foreign banking systems. When this parameter is high, the model is vulnerable to aggregate risk. Our research shows that if multiple countries are impacted by the same shock, diversification of risk becomes impossible.In the event of a global economic downturn, international lenders may become scarce, or the real interest rate may substantially increase, perhaps leading to an economic crisis.

Evaluating Australia's financial conditions: A comparative analysis and extension of a dynamic factor model index

AbstractThis article investigates the unique financial conditions in Australia in the wake of COVID‐19, a subject of critical importance given the recent unprecedented economic events such as the fastest rate rises since the 1990s and the presence of persistently high inflation. This study aims to contribute to the literature by examining the speed of interest rate changes and its implications on financial conditions, particularly in an environment characterised by negative real interest rates. The research aims to extend and refine the financial conditions index (FCI) developed by the Reserve Bank of Australia by incorporating a momentum variable to capture the speed of interest rate changes. A dynamic factor model is utilised to investigate 73 data series across nine main categories, constructing the FCI on a quarterly basis. The results indicate that rapid interest rate changes significantly impact financial conditions, holding significant weights within the model, thus requiring careful policy considerations.

Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market

I assess monetary policy strategies to foster price stability and labor market strength. The assessment incorporates a range of challenges, including uncertainty regarding the equilibrium real interest rate, mismeasurement of economic potential, and balancing the costs and benefits associated with employment shortfalls and labor market strength. I find that the ELB remains a significant constraint, hindering achievement of the inflation objective and worsening employment shortfalls. Symmetric policy reaction functions mitigate the most adverse effects of employment shortfalls by contributing to economic stability. Make-up strategies address ELB risks. These strategies call for policy to accommodate some period of inflation above its long-run objective following an ELB episode. I also consider an asymmetric shortfalls approach to policy. This approach provides accommodation in response to weak activity while foregoing tightening in response to strong activity. While the approach can, in principle, address ELB risks by raising inflation, it performs poorly. The shortfalls approach exacerbates economic volatility, worsens employment shortfalls, and creates excess inflationary pressures. Mismeasurement is not sufficient to limit the importance of strong responses to measured slack. Overall, monetary policy can promote price stability and labor market strength by focusing on economic stability, with a strategy targeted to address ELB risks.

A creative approach to psychoeducation for ADHD in adults

A group-based online psycho-education program for adults with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and their families has been set up by a multi-professional psychiatric team. Feedback from users has mainly shown benefits in terms of improving self-esteem, destigmatization and accessibility to care. This suggests a real interest in developing this care offer in the pathway of ADHD adults.

MONETARY POLICY DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN BANGLADESH: AN ARIMA MODEL APPROACH

This study delves into the impact of monetary policy on the economic performance of Bangladesh, utilizing data derived from audited annual reports of the Bangladesh Bank covering the years 2014 to 2022. The central focus of the analysis revolves around Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the dependent variable, with money supply growth, real interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, and repo rate considered as independent variables. Employing two regression models, namely Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), the research aims to explore the relationships among these variables. In the OLS regression model, significant associations are identified between GDP and real interest rates, inflation rate, and the repo rate. However, no statistically significant relationships are observed between GDP and money supply growth or the exchange rate. On the contrary, the ARIMA regression model indicates statistical significance for all variables, except the exchange rate, concerning their impact on GDP. These findings suggest that monetary policy plays a substantial role in shaping the economic growth of Bangladesh, with real interest rates, inflation rates, and repo rates exerting particular influence. The lack of a significant relationship between the exchange rate and GDP in the ARIMA model implies that other factors, potentially external to the country, may have a more dominant influence on exchange rate dynamics during the study period. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between monetary policy and economic performance in Bangladesh, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders.

Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment In Malaysia

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) occurs when one country invests in another. Multiple factors have contributed to fluctuations in FDI flows globally. This study investigates the impact of the microeconomic variables on FDI in Malaysia. Data were collected for the period of 30 years from 1992-2021 and analysed using Multiple Linear Regression models. The study’s findings concluded that gross domestic product (GDP), inflation (INF), real interest rate (RIR), trade openness (TRA), unemployment rate (UNE) and exchange rate (EXC) are six major macroeconomic variables impacting FDI inflows. Result of the study reveal that gross domestic product (GDP), inflation (INF) and exchange rate (EXC) are positively related to foreign direct investment (FDI). This suggests that a robust domestic economic output, moderate inflation rates, and favourable exchange rates serve to attract foreign investment. However, the study reveals that the real interest rate (RIR), trade openness (TRA) and unemployment rate (UNE) are negatively related to foreign direct investment (FDI). Overall, this study contributes valuable insights into the intricate relationship between microeconomic variables and FDI inflows in Malaysia, shedding light on how different economic factors collectively shape the investment landscape of the nation.

Effects of Budget Deficit Financing on the Economy of Nigeria

The study investigated the effects of deficit financing on the Nigerian economy using data that covered 41 years (1981 to 2021). Real gross domestic product (RGDP) was the dependent variable, while government budget deficit financing disaggregated into different sources of budget deficit financing represented the explanatory variables. The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method was used for the tests and analyses. Results established that both non-bank public sources of deficit financing and banking system sources of deficit financing had positive and significant effects on growth. However, non-bank public deficit financing positively led the Nigerian economy and was followed by banking system deficit financing. Both ways and means and external deficit financing sources were negative and insignificant in influencing the Nigerian economy. Ways and means were third while external deficit financing was fourth in descending order of influence on RGDP growth. The study further applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) approach to unit root tests and observed that the variables were integrated at both levels and first difference, leading to the application of the Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) approach to data estimation. The ARDL bounds tests showed that the model specified for the study followed a long-run path and that a long-run relationship existed between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables. The estimation of the long-run and error correction estimation indicated that the independent variables had a time-varying effect on the real gross domestic product of Nigeria. That ARDL estimation of the error correction mechanism also showed that RGDP adjusted rapidly to short-run discrepancies in the long run. Finally, the error correction mechanism showed that external sources of budget deficit financing, non-banking system public deficit financing, ways and means source of deficit financing, gross capital formation, real interest rate and exchange rate, all had robust effects on growth, though with varying directions of influence. Based on the foregoing, the study has recommended deficit financing, more especially non-bank public deficit financing and banking system deficit financing as better options for attaining the much desired rapid and sustainable economic growth of Nigeria as they have been proven to be non-inflationary in practice compared to ways and means and external source of deficit financing over the years.

Effects of Deposit Mobilization on Financial Performance (Profitability) of Microfinance Banks in Nigeria

The study examined the effects of deposit mobilization on the financial performance of microfinance banks in Nigeria between 2012 and 2021. The study employed real interest rate and gross capital formation as control variables. This study utilized the exploratory research design and the population of the study consisted of all the microfinance banks in Cross River State and Abia State. A purposive/judgment sampling technique was used. Data for the study were obtained from the annual reports of various microfinance banks in the selected states in Nigeria. Regression models were estimated and analyzed using panel random-effects, and fixed effects. From the result of these analyses, the findings of the research were summarized as follows: there was a positive and significant effect of the demand deposit variable on the financial performance of microfinance banks in Nigeria; there was a negative and significant effect of savings deposit variable on the financial performance of microfinance banks in Nigeria. The study therefore recommended that Commercial banks, and Microfinance banks in particular, should intensify efforts on deposit mobilization as one of their main financing options in the Nigerian financial system, as the study has confirmed that microfinance banks largely depended on deposits for financing their operations. Besides, banks should implement effective strategies promoting prize-linked-savings such as to mobilize more deposits from both the formal and informal sectors of the economy. Both strategies would enhance their profitability rating in the Nigerian banking environment in the years ahead.

PERLINDUNGAN HUKUM BAGI NASABAH PADA PINJAMAN ONLINE MENURUT HUKUM EKONOMI SYARIAH

This article aims to examine the legal protection for customers in the implementation of online-based money loans or known as online loans (pinjol). The research method used is a doctrinal approach where the author will examine legal norms related to customer protection according to the Banking Law, and a number of Financial Services Authority (OJK) regulations related to pinjol. The results of this study conclude that there are several phenomena that occur in the implementation of pinjol that do not get legal protection for customers, namely: First, the determination of interest that does not refer to the interest rate provisions of Bank Indonesia, second, the maximum interest setting on online loans in fintech companies is 0.4 percent per day but the amount of real interest is not regulated in the agreement. Third, Financial Services Authority Regulation No.77/POJK.01/2016 on Information Technology-Based Money Lending and Borrowing Services OJK Regulation No.77 of 2016 is the basis for the implementation of Peer to Peer Lending business activities or online lending and borrowing which is one of the types of fintech, including the protection of customer personal data. Customer personal data collected by fintech providers must be kept confidential in accordance with applicable privacy provisions.