Real Policy Research Articles

시공사 브랜드가 아파트 분양가와 투자수익에 미치는 영향

Depending on the economic situation, real estate policies have been announced with the goal of stabilizing real estate or revitalizing the economy. Before implementing real estate policies, effective operation and evaluation of government policies are essential. Real estate exhibits different regional variations due to its unique location fixity, and as a consumer and investment good, it is a commodity that is affected in a complex way, such as liquidity, supply, macroeconomics, and psychology. Real estate policies vary by tax policies such as holding tax and capital gains tax, and housing finance regulations (LTV, DTI). From this point of view, there is a need for a tool that can analyze the comprehensive policy effects including various types of real estate policies of the government. In this study, the available variables among the macroeconomic variables of the real estate market macroeconomic model designed on the premise of the ripple path following the implementation of real estate policies and the apartment sales transaction price index in the metropolitan area and nationwide, which is a proxy for apartment houses, were set as variables and analyzed through multivariate analysis. Analyze dynamic variations between variables. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of housing finance regulation on housing mortgage loans in the national and metropolitan areas among real estate policies and the effect of tax policies and mortgage loans on apartment house prices (apartment sale price index) among real estate policies. We would like to focus on analyzing the effectiveness of the policy.

시공사 브랜드가 아파트 분양가와 투자수익에 미치는 영향

Depending on the economic situation, real estate policies have been announced with the goal of stabilizing real estate or revitalizing the economy. Before implementing real estate policies, effective operation and evaluation of government policies are essential. Real estate exhibits different regional variations due to its unique location fixity, and as a consumer and investment good, it is a commodity that is affected in a complex way, such as liquidity, supply, macroeconomics, and psychology. Real estate policies vary by tax policies such as holding tax and capital gains tax, and housing finance regulations (LTV, DTI). From this point of view, there is a need for a tool that can analyze the comprehensive policy effects including various types of real estate policies of the government. In this study, the available variables among the macroeconomic variables of the real estate market macroeconomic model designed on the premise of the ripple path following the implementation of real estate policies and the apartment sales transaction price index in the metropolitan area and nationwide, which is a proxy for apartment houses, were set as variables and analyzed through multivariate analysis. Analyze dynamic variations between variables. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of housing finance regulation on housing mortgage loans in the national and metropolitan areas among real estate policies and the effect of tax policies and mortgage loans on apartment house prices (apartment sale price index) among real estate policies. We would like to focus on analyzing the effectiveness of the policy.

부동산 공시가격의 수평ㆍ수직적 형평성 변화 연구

In this study, it was checked whether the government's public real estate price realization policy was implemented as announced. In addition, we analyzed how much the tax equity (horizontal and vertical) of the announced real estate price has improved due to the realization. And it was carried out to suggest a direction for desirable policy implementation. For this purpose, data on publicly announced prices and actual transaction prices of apartment houses, detached houses, and land across the country for the past five years were collected. Then, by examining previous studies, the optimal methodology for tax equity analysis was selected and three hypotheses were established. In order to prove the hypothesis, the actual transaction price reflection ratio of the official real estate prices collected was calculated. And outliers were removed according to the modified interquartile range method. And horizontal equity was analyzed through the coefficient of quantile (COD). And vertical equity was analyzed by applying the Clapp model. In the process of vertical equity analysis, quantile regression analysis was performed. Test the hypothesis according to the analysis result. In addition, in consideration of the results analyzed during the verification process, a plan for improving the realization of the announced real estate price policy was suggested. The verification result is as follows. Hypothesis 1 (the rate of reflection of real transaction prices in real estate prices for the past 3 years has risen every year) was partially adopted. Hypothesis 2 (horizontal equity of public real estate prices improved every year due to an increase in the reflection rate of actual transaction prices) was also partially adopted. In addition, the third hypothesis (the vertical equity of the announced real estate price would have improved every year due to the increase in the reflection rate of the actual transaction price) was also partially adopted. Using the results of other studies, various measures to improve the realization of published real estate prices are suggested as follows. The first is that it is desirable to calculate the realization rate for detached houses based on the individual house price and the realization rate for land based on the official individual land price. Second, since the difference between the announced balance index (COD) and the calculated COD is large, the calculation criteria should be reexamined. Third, a re-examination is necessary because the realization rate of the townhouse villa and the official land price is decreasing. Fourth, since there is a problem in the realization rate or horizontal equity of detached houses and land, the government should intervene more actively in the calculation of the published price of Si/Gun/Gu. In addition, it is necessary to disclose the actual transaction price data including the published price.

리모델링 인센티브를 활용한 1기 신도시 ‘先 재건축, 後 리모델링’ 추진에 관한 연구

housing prices have risen sharply since the Moon Jae-in administration, and in some areas of Seoul, the average apartment price has reached more than 1 billion won. Accordingly, as a real estate regulatory policy, the government introduced DSR following LTV and DTI, which are one of the financial loan regulation policies, and came up with a policy to suppress the increase in house prices through loan restraints. came up with However, the land that can supply housing on a large scale is limited and it is difficult to find suitable land at present. Although there is a way to supply new housing through reconstruction and redevelopment, the reconstruction projects of low-rise apartment complexes that are feasible have already reached the completion stage, and the remaining middle and high-rise apartments are turning to multi-unit housing remodeling projects rather than reconstruction due to lack of business feasibility. However, the target houses of the remodeling project are housing complexes that were built in a way that did not take into account remodeling in the past.

Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods

Long-term flood risk adaptation and decision making are complex because the future is full of deep uncertainties. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. This study developed an integrated modeling framework that extends previous studies to the spatial domain to assess the future flood risks and the cost and benefit of three adaptation measures for four types of buildings in Shanghai. Real options analysis (ROA) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) were integrated to develop a dynamic adaptation pathway and identify robust adaptation options. The results show that: (1) Sea level rise and land subsidence will significantly exacerbate the flood risks in Shanghai; (2) Among the three flood control measures, wet-floodproofing has the best economic performance in terms of both the net present value and the benefit/cost ratio, followed by dry-floodproofing, and elevation; (3) Dry-floodproofing can be used at the beginning of the future period (2030–2100), and it can be replaced by wet-floodproofing in 2035–2042; the elevation measure also shows good performance at the beginning of implementation, but its performance will decline after 2041–2045; (4) The combined strategy of dry- and wet-floodproofing in 2044–2046 and a hybrid strategy combining the three measures should be the optimal solution for reducing the flood risks in 2047–2051. The methodology developed in this study can provide insights for coastal cities to formulate cost-effective and feasible adaptation strategies in a deeply uncertain future.

CMOs의 가치평가에 관한 연구

This study empirically analyzed whether real estate policies have a significant effect on housing sales, jeonse prices, and land sales prices using MBS is not active in Korea due to difficulties in evaluation. In the appraisal of MBS, the default risk is a cost that someone has to bear even if the government agency removes it through relevant guarantees. In this study, five CMOs data are evaluated and analyzed through the financial model developed based on traditional capital budgeting theory, option pricing theory, and Cho & Jun(2019)’s model recognizing that housing price fluctuation is an important factor affecting the default risk in MBS. Finally, the results drawn from this study help provide a theoretical framework for the valuation of MBS and show relevant implications for rational decision-making to MBS-related entities.

Eco-efficiency of Chinese transportation industry: A DEA approach with non-discretionary input

In the context of the rapid development of Chinese economy and the advancement of urbanization and industrialization, the transportation industry caused serious environmental pollution and resource waste problems. The eco-efficiency of Chinese transportation industry has become a hot spot of society. Recently, China announced several initiatives to stabilize and expand employment, so that the efficient and sustainable development of industries cannot be based on the premise of reducing the labor force. However, traditional efficiency measures usually assume that inputs can be reduced at will, which is insufficient to correctly represent the observed practice. In this paper, we investigate the eco-efficiency of the transportation industry in 30 Chinese provinces incorporating the non-discretionary input labor and undesirable output CO2 emission. Data envelopment analysis and directional distance function approaches are employed in constructing the measurement model. Our empirical results reveal explicit spatial features of the eco-efficiency in various provinces and show significant correlation between eco-efficiency and industrial structure, technological, and management factors. To examine the validity of our proposed models, comparative studies were further conducted and illustrated that the introduction of non-discretionary inputs and the selection of direction vectors have a crucial impact on the results of eco-efficiency. Based on the empirical results and our summarized policy implications, we found several deficiencies in the real policies and put forward corresponding policy suggestions for the industry and government.

Canada’s Security Policy After the Cold War: New Challenges of the 21st Century

Canada has accumulated substantial potential and interesting experience in security sphere. Тhe article deals with the general conceptual approaches of Canadian elite toward security after the cold war well as real policy directions in this issue. First of all, it is necessary to say that the end of the cold war caused reconsideration of conceptual approaches to security as well as development of new power centers based not only on military force but also on so called “soft power”. In this context Canada is an indicative example: being a member of western privilege club, this country simultaneously possesses high authority in the Third World. As a result, the situation gives Ottawa a possibility to play a role of “middle power” which includes a mission of a certain mediator between post-industrial and developing countries. The end of the cold war created possibility to overcome certain ambivalence of Canadian foreign and security policy. New security concept stated in the document of Foreign Ministry and International Trade “Canada in the world” (1995) was based on a broad security approach proceeded from the rise c поп-military factors in global development. New developments connected with the rise of the globe terrorism threat have caused the creation of multi-level anti-terrorism system that included several governmental institutions. Among them one should mention the Integrated Threat Assessment Centre (ITAC) formed in October 2004. Canada also supported US non-proliferation efforts strengthening license am export control over radioactive materials and discussing a possibility to join Anti-Missile Defense System оthe United States. In the sphere of conflict resolution, Ottawa stressed on preventive socio-economic am political measures capable to eliminate or lessen preconditions of conflicts. In this context special attention was given to “failed states” as potential source of trouble. The appearance of new threats and challenges has made Canada to deepen and broader instruments and mechanisms of ensuring of national security. Analysis shows that Canada in general hold, on multi-level international approach based on of broach concept of security. It includes fighting international terrorism, nuclear proliferation, solution of regional conflicts etc. “New Cold war” brought by Russian aggression since 2014 has posted new challenges for Canada’s security policy causing the necessity for more active involvement into security on European continent. This circumstance requires serious upgrade of its basic conceptual approaches and certain return to the approaches based on more traditional (military) security.

Can administrative health data be used to estimate population level birth and child mortality estimates? A comparison of India's Health Information Management System data with nationally representative survey data

•HMIS covers a large proportion of births, but a smaller fraction of child deaths compared to estimates from surveys.•Birth and death coverage in HMIS, while incomplete, has been improving nationally and for many states.•States that have improved HMIS reporting, should be studied for replicating best practices.•HMIS can provide signals for real time policy decisions, if used with due consideration of its limitations.•Including patient socioeconomic and demographic traits in HMIS, could further bolster its utility in population health.

Evaluation Model of Tourism-Driven Real Estate Economic Growth Point Based on AHP

The economy of real estate is intimately connected to people’s quality of life, living standards, and living situations, all of which are extremely important in economic life. In order to better understand the impact of tourism-driven real estate on economic growth, based on AHP, this paper establishes an evaluation model of tourism-driven real estate economic growth. Based on the influencing factors of tourism real estate development, the evaluation model is built in this study of the tourism real estate development model by AHP and determines the optimal model according to the evaluation results. Through the application of the AHP model, the effect of real estate regulation policy is evaluated. The housing prices are affected not only by the influencing factors of housing prices in the pressure indicators, but also by real estate control policies. The model can effectively assess the economic growth point of real estate, propose real estate-specific guiding alternatives for economic growth and development, and ensure that the real estate market develops in a healthy and orderly manner.

Earthquake Insurance in California, USA: What Does Community-Generated Big Data Reveal to Us?

California has a high seismic hazard, as many historical and recent earthquakes remind us. To deal with potential future damaging earthquakes, a voluntary insurance system for residential properties is in force in the state. However, the insurance penetration rate is quite low. Bearing this in mind, the aim of this article is to ascertain whether Big Data can provide policymakers and stakeholders with useful information in view of future action plans on earthquake coverage. Therefore, we extracted and analyzed the online search interest in earthquake insurance over time (2004–2021) through Google Trends (GT), a website that explores the popularity of top search queries in Google Search across various regions and languages. We found that (1) the triggering of online searches stems primarily from the occurrence of earthquakes in California and neighboring areas as well as oversea regions, thus suggesting that the interest of users was guided by both direct and vicarious earthquake experiences. However, other natural hazards also come to people’s notice; (2) the length of the higher level of online attention spans from one day to one week, depending on the magnitude of the earthquakes, the place where they occur, the temporal proximity of other natural hazards, and so on; (3) users interested in earthquake insurance are also attentive to knowing the features of the policies, among which are first the price of coverage, and then their worth and practical benefits; (4) online interest in the time span analyzed fits fairly well with the real insurance policy underwritings recorded over the years. Based on the research outcomes, we can propose the establishment of an observatory to monitor the online behavior that is suitable for supporting well-timed and geographically targeted information and communication action plans.

Co-evolutionary dynamics of experimental governance: a longitudinal study of sustainable mobility services in Oslo

ABSTRACT The attention that has been drawn to urban experimentation has contributed to new knowledge of the role of local governance for a sustainable transition. Still, there remains little knowledge of how municipalities can foster experimentation and that may result in real change across the protected spaces of experimentation and the existing policy structures. This paper aims at exploring how experimental governance result in real policy change over time by reviewing related discussions from the cross-disciplinary fields of sustainability transition and collaborative innovation, and by discussing findings from a longitudinal case study of an emerging innovation for sustainable mobility services in Oslo. This longitudinal study shows how experimental governance have played various roles at different times in the emerging innovation: promoting innovation, destabilising existing policy arrangements, transforming institutional routines and co-creating shared interests. The findings demonstrate the critical co-evolutionary dynamics of experimental governance, transforming existing policy structures over time.

The problem of media competence in the political culture of young people in Russia

The political culture of the modern youth of Russia in the context of current political events and real foreign policy challenges is one of the most important issues to study. It largely determines how the state will function and what it will be based on, as well as its future prospects. In modern conditions, in the era of post-truth and fake news, it is important to study the media competence of young people as a separate component of political culture and a means of protection from unverified information. The subject of our research is the problem of media competence, and the object is the political culture of youth. The purpose of the study was to describe the problem of media competence in the political culture of Russian youth. For this purpose, a series of expert interviews were conducted with experts in the field of real politics, as well as theorists in the field of education. The result of the study was a description of the modern political culture of youth, as well as the role of media competence in it. Expert assessments have largely helped to describe in more detail the political culture of young people and identify key trends in it, as well as to identify existing political risks for the state. It also revealed the fundamental differences in the formation of the political culture of generation Z from the political culture of other generations.

Legal Issues in the Government's Real Estate Tax Policy and Tasks for Improvement

부동산은 인간 생존에 필요한 가장 기본이자 핵심요소지만 다른 생산수단과 달리 무한정 생산할 수 없는 근원적 한계가 있으며, 다른 생산수단과 달리 제한적 공간을 전제로 한다는 특성이 있다. 이에 헌법재판소도 이러한 부동산의 고유한 특성을 이유로 위헌심사시 부동산 재산권에 대한 제한 가능성의 무게를 다른 일반 재산권과 달리 판단하고 있고, 그 일환으로 국가의 부동산 과세권 행사와 관련해서도 대체로 합헌적 입장을 견지하고 있다. 최근 부동산 가격 급등으로 부동산 시장이 제 기능을 다하지 못하자, 정부는 부동산담보 대출 규제, 양도소득세와 종합부동산세 등 부동산 세제 강화 등 다양한 대책을 추진한 바 있다. 특히 다주택자를 대상으로 종부세와 양도소득세를 중과세하여 부동산 투기를 억제하려는데 집중하고 있다. 그러나 이러한 정부의 정책으로 부동산조세 등 관련 제도가 너무 자주 바뀌고, 그 정도가 과하여 납세자로 하여금 예측가능성을 잃게 하거나 개인 사유재산에 수인하기 어려운 심각한 피해가 발생하여서는 곤란하다. 강력한 과세정책은 그 목적에 맞게 최후 수단으로써 비례원칙을 지켜야 할 것이며, 일반 국민이 자신이 내야 할 세금에 대해 충분히 사전 예측할 수 있도록 하고, 전혀 예기치 못하거나 의도하지 않은 사유로 (중)과세되는 문제가 발생하지 않도록 해야 한다. 구체적 방안으로 양도소득세 부과기준을 투기거래와 일반거래로 구분할 필요가 있으며, 양도 차익이 일정 금액 이상을 넘어서는 고액의 경우 하나의 세율로 단일화 할 필요가 있다. 또한, 지금과 같이 짧은 기간에 부동산 가격이 폭등한 상황에서는 양도소득세를 일시 완화하여 거래가 활성화 되도록 할 필요가 있으며, 거기에 더하여 양도소득세와 종부세(보유세) 계산시 장기보유특별공제도 확대할 필요가 있다. 나아가 2주택자 이상이라 하더라도 상속이나 주말 부부(직장 문제) 등의 경우와 같이 투기 목적이 아닌 불가항력으로 2주택자가 된 경우 등은 다양한 입법적, 행정적, 사법적 조치를 통해 구제할 필요가 있다.Real estate is the most basic and key element necessary for human survival, but unlike other means of production, it has a fundamental limit that cannot be produced indefinitely. Also, unlike other means of production, real estate has a unique characteristic that it requires limited space. The Constitutional Court also judges the weight of the possibility of limiting real estate property rights differently from other general property rights when examining the constitutionality of real estate for reasons such as the uniqueness of real estate. there is. As the real estate market failed to function properly due to the recent sharp rise in real estate prices and a decrease in real demand and a sharp increase in speculative demand, the government implemented various measures such as regulation on mortgage-backed loans, and strengthening of real estate taxes such as capital gains tax and comprehensive real estate tax. there is. In particular, it is concentrating on suppressing real estate speculation by heavy taxation of capital gains tax and capital gains tax for multi-family homeowners. However, it is difficult for the real estate tax-related system to change too frequently due to these various policies, and to cause taxpayers to lose predictability or to cause serious damage that is difficult to bear on private property. In other words, it will be said that maintaining and strengthening the current heavy taxation policy is not a good thing. In the end, a strong taxation policy will have to follow the proportionality principle as a last resort for its purpose, allow the general public to sufficiently predict the amount of tax they will have to pay in advance, and (heavy) taxation for unexpected or unintentional reasons. Care must be taken not to cause any problems. Specifically, it is necessary to separate the taxation criteria for capital gains tax into speculative transactions and general transactions, and in the case of large capital gains exceeding a certain amount, it is necessary to unify the tax rate into one. In addition, in a situation where real estate prices soared in such a short period of time, it is necessary to temporarily ease the capital gains tax so that transactions can be activated. there is Furthermore, even if there are more than two homeowners, it is necessary to take relief through legislative measures in cases where the person becomes a second homeowner due to force majeure, not for speculative purposes, such as inheritance.

Can Transdisciplinary Vision Meet Leadership Practices?

This article is the result of a study of leadership practices at IAIN Kendari, which focused on two aspects: 1) leadership practices in determining the direction and explaining the big picture of IAIN Kendari; and 2) leadership practices in formulating IAIN Kendari’s development strategy. The following findings were obtained through qualitative research using the narrative method: First, IAIN Kendari’s vision states that the institute will ”become a center for transdisciplinary studies in Asia by 2045.” Current leadership practices, however, do not appear to be in sync with this vision, which is still hazy. Second, routinely oriented leadership practices have not yet reached the depths of IAIN Kendari’s long history to produce new breakthroughs and innovations, and the role of the leader as a transformer of IAIN Kendari’s vision has not yet materialized into real policies and actions.
 Keywords: leadership, strategy, transdisciplinary vision, quality of education

A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis of Changes in Left-Behind Children's Mental Health in China.

A considerable body of research using the Mental Health Test (MHT) has explored the psychological repercussions of the physical separation of children from one or both parents as they pursue better economic prospects in cities. Generally, these studies compare the mental health status (MHS) between left-behind children (LBC) and non-left-behind children (NLBC). That notwithstanding, little is known about the real policy impact of these studies on the ground over the years. Using a relevant search strategy and selection criteria, we identified qualified studies (N = 102: 2004 to 2019). Cross-temporal meta-analysis (CTMA) was performed on these studies for dynamic trends. Our results demonstrate: (1) a slight but significant change in MHS of both LBC and NLBC, with LBC being significantly worse off over time; (2) a significant deterioration in MHS of LBC over time, particularly among left-behind boys (LBBs); (3) a stable and significant decline in MHS of left-behind junior high and elementary school students, respectively; and (4) a more substantial degradation in MHS of LBC with both parents absent compared with LBC with a parent present. The findings reveal that the efforts of, and collaboration among, researchers, policy experts and politicians are producing results. Nevertheless, more targeted research is needed to unearth the underlying issues that generate the differences among subpopulations of LBC to better inform pragmatic interventions for collective psychological wellness of LBC.

Is Adopting Mass Customization a Path to Environmentally Sustainable Fashion?

Problem definition: In high-product-variety businesses like fashion, mass production (MP) systems create environmental waste in the form of overproduction on a colossal scale. Mass customization (MC) has been proposed—without solid evidence—as a solution. In this paper, we analyze whether MC can indeed offer a win-win solution that helps both the bottom line and the environment. We also study the impact of three real policy options: promoting MC, charging a disposal fee for overproduction, and recycling. Academic/practical relevance: There is increasing interest in mass-customizing fashion goods, not only because consumers value customization, but also because MC is perceived to be environmentally friendly. Our paper puts this advocacy for MC to the test. We contribute to the literature, which has been largely silent on the issue, by uncovering when MC offers a win-win and relating such market outcomes to policy ideas. Methodology: We develop an analytical model of an MP firm adopting MC (going hybrid). The firm’s profit-maximizing variety, price, and inventory decisions then form the basis of our understanding the environmental impact of adopting MC and assessing various policy options. Results: Adopting MC can be a win-win, but it can also increase overproduction and hurt the environment. Our policy analyses reveal two kinds of insights. The first kind is about whether a policy expands win-win outcomes—encouraging sustainable adoption of MC. Among the policy ideas we explore, only promoting MC so as to increase consumers’ tolerance for waiting for mass-customized products can do that unambiguously. The second kind of insight is about whether a policy reduces the hybrid firm’s environmental impact. Only a disposal fee and costly recycling programs can do that unambiguously. Managerial implications: For MC adoption to be a win-win, policy makers must (1) work on convincing consumers to wait for bespoke fashion; (2) target MP firms with low cost of variety (high product-mix flexibility) with disposal fees or costly recycling programs; and (3) encourage those with relatively higher cost of variety to develop/acquire technology that would make recycling profitable. History: This paper has been accepted for the Manufacturing & Service Operations Management Special Section on Responsible Research in Operations Management. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.1088 .

Relative Entropy of Correct Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms with Modified Penalty Factor in Complex Environment.

In the field of reinforcement learning, we propose a Correct Proximal Policy Optimization (CPPO) algorithm based on the modified penalty factor β and relative entropy in order to solve the robustness and stationarity of traditional algorithms. Firstly, In the process of reinforcement learning, this paper establishes a strategy evaluation mechanism through the policy distribution function. Secondly, the state space function is quantified by introducing entropy, whereby the approximation policy is used to approximate the real policy distribution, and the kernel function estimation and calculation of relative entropy is used to fit the reward function based on complex problem. Finally, through the comparative analysis on the classic test cases, we demonstrated that our proposed algorithm is effective, has a faster convergence speed and better performance than the traditional PPO algorithm, and the measure of the relative entropy can show the differences. In addition, it can more efficiently use the information of complex environment to learn policies. At the same time, not only can our paper explain the rationality of the policy distribution theory, the proposed framework can also balance between iteration steps, computational complexity and convergence speed, and we also introduced an effective measure of performance using the relative entropy concept.

A model for Real Estate Price Prediction using Multi-Level Stacking Ensemble Technique

Recent research and economic publications have shown the impact of real estate investment on the over economy of Nigeria. It is therefore crucial to employ machine learning technique to predict the price for real estate properties. Real estate price analysis and prediction will assist in establishment of real estate policies and can also be used to aid real estate property stakeholders to come up with informative decisions without bias or prejudice. Thus, it is imperative to develop a model to improve the accuracy of real estate price prediction. The goal of this research is to develop a model using a multi-level stacking ensemble technique to predict price of real estate property. The dataset utilized for the study was collected from transactions done by real estate firms in Port Harcourt and it consist of a total of 1053 rows with twelve features. The base model used includes Random Forest(RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting Algorithm(XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM), Decision Tree regression and ElasticNet Regression. Various combinations of the base models were stacked using StackingCVRegressor. The final model was developed by combining the best performing stacked models and evaluated using R-Square, Mean Absolute Error(MAE), Root Mean Square Error(RMSE), Mean Square Error(MSE) and Training time. The proposed model outperformed the various individual base model with R-square of 0.985203, MSE of 0.013438, RMSE of 0.115923, MAE of 0.063411 and training time of 0.599398. The result show that multi-level stacking significant improve the accuracy of a model. Again, it was observed stacking improve the performance accuracy of a model at the cost of computational time. Stacking by using blending function for the proposed model significantly reduced the computational time for training the model to 0.599398 second when compared to using StackingCVRegressor with training time of 107.054931 seconds. Therefore, multi-level stacking ensemble technique can be employed to improve the predictive accuracy of a prediction model. Future work can be done by increasing the dataset and also increasing the number of features.

Delivering net zero

What comes next? The 2021 Glasgow Climate Pact rightly expressed “alarm and utmost concern” at the impacts of climate change that are already being felt around the world, following repeated instances of death and destruction brought by extreme heat, floods and wildfires.11 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2021) Glasgow Climate Pact, UNFCCC. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_L16_adv.pdf It explicitly recognised that further impacts will be much lower at a 1.5C temperature increase than at 2C, and it stated that this means almost halving global carbon dioxide emissions this decade and reaching net zero around mid-century. More needs to be done to close the considerable gap between the ambition to limit climate change and the promised emission reductions. Pledges made by countries in Glasgow on issues such as deforestation, electric vehicles and methane need to be translated into real policy and action, accountability mechanisms need to be strengthened, and international climate finance needs to be bolstered. Nevertheless, a clear commitment to a global net-zero future has been made by global governments, mirrored throughout much of the private sector, and the principal challenge now is one of delivery on an accelerated timeframe. “This is both unimaginably daunting and eminently doable” “such investment must be fairly distributed and aligned to a broader strategy to deliver a just transition” “A critical part of the institutional infrastructure is ensuring horizontal and vertical connectivity in decision-making across local and national government” “emissions reduction commitments … remain woefully insufficient to limit a temperature rise to 1.5C” With the alarm bell still ringing from Glasgow, the single most important thing is that pledges are translated into accelerated whole-economy action so that this vision and the ambition of net zero rapidly become a global reality. Prof Emily Shuckburgh is Director of Cambridge Zero, the University of Cambridge's major climate change initiative. She is also Professor of Environmental Data Science at the Department of Computer Science and Technology and leads the UKRI Centre for Doctoral Training on the Application of AI to the study of Environmental Risks (AI4ER).