Real Options Approach Research Articles

What a Difference a Stochastic Process Makes: Epidemiological-Based Real Options Models of Optimal Treatment of Disease

The real options approach has been used within environmental economics to investigate the impact of uncertainty on the optimal timing of control measures to minimise the impacts of invasive species, including pests and diseases. Previous studies typically model the growth in infected area using geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The advantage of this simple approach is that it allows for closed form solutions. However, such a process does not capture the mechanisms underlying the spread of infection. In particular the GBM assumption does not respect the natural upper boundary of the system, which is determined by the maximum size of the host species, nor the deceleration in the rate of infection as this boundary is approached. We show how the stochastic process describing the growth in infected area can be derived from the characteristics of the spread of infection. If the model used does not appropriately capture uncertainty in infection dynamics, then the excessive delay before treatment implies that the full value of the option to treat is not realised. Indeed, when uncertainty is high or the disease is fast spreading, ignoring the mechanisms of infection spread can lead to control never being deployed. Thus the results presented here have important implications for the way in which the real options approach is applied to determine optimal timing of disease control given uncertainty in future disease progression.

Income uncertainty and the decision to invest in bulk shipping

AbstractWe develop a coherent framework for the valuation of real assets and determination of the optimal time to invest. To this end, we model the stochastic nature of income and develop methodologies for valuing traded derivatives to facilitate model calibration. A valuation paradigm for freight‐linked assets is then presented and, using a real option approach, we demonstrate its usefulness in investment appraisal and optimal timing of entry in the shipping industry. We find that long‐run freight rate and volatility have an impact on the decision timing and value of the investment that diminishes with increasing vessel age. As time to build declines, the value of the option to wait increases implying a high opportunity cost embedded in the investment decision due to construction lags.

Valuing synergies in strategic mergers and acquisitions using the real options approach

The purpose of the current paper is to elaborate the model for assessing cumulative synergetic effect in M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) deals on the basis of a real options approach. The majority of papers on the synergetic effects of M&A deals typically focus on a particular type of synergy, while the current paper proposes a model that accounts for the cumulative simultaneous effect of different types of operating and financial synergies. The methodology of our research is loosely based on Datar-Mathews real option valuation model, which is flexible and intuitive for practitioners. Formulae for assessing eight types of synergy typically arising from M&A deals are developed. They are integrated into a single model to assess their cumulative effect on the M&A deal using a simulation modelling approach. The method was used ex post to find synergy values in two recent M&A deals in the pharmaceutical industry, and produced sound results. The proposed approach to value target companies could be used by firms before an M&A deal in the due diligence process. Using this tool a company can build a bidding strategy and define the maximum premium it can pay for the target.

Valuing investment projects under interest rate risk: empirical evidence from European firms

ABSTRACTIn this article, we perform an empirical investigation of the effect of the interest rate uncertainty on the valuation of investment projects. The analysis is carried out by employing a real option approach and by considering a set of firms that operate in various production sectors in the euro area. In particular, the revenues generated by the investment projects are modelled using a geometric Brownian motion, whereas the interest rate is specified as a stochastic process of Vasicek type. Moreover, using the volatility of the equity return as a proxy, the volatility of the revenues is calibrated to real firm data, while the parameters of the interest rate model are estimated by fitting the Euribor time series. To this aim, an ad hoc calibration procedure is developed which is based on the maximum likelihood principle and thus has the merit of being simple, fast and suitable for practical purposes. Our study reveals that the interest rate uncertainty reduces the valuation of investment projects. However, stochastic interest rates do not provide a substantial improvement with respect to constant interest rates, or at least the differences are not statistically significant.

What is the value of the option to defer an investment in Transmission Expansion Planning? An estimation using Real Options

In deregulated markets, Transmission Expansion Planning (TEP) is usually performed by a central network planner seeking to maximize social welfare. In doing that, the network planner commonly follows a traditional project valuation, considering a discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology, although incorporating uncertainty and reliability considerations. Accordingly, once the optimal transmission expansion plan is determined, the network planner frequently auctions the needed investments, obligating the investor to execute the expansion in the fixed (inflexible) terms defined in the bidding process. A key problem is that DCF does not take into account the responses of the planner when uncertainties are resolved because DCF evaluates the project with the information available today. In TEP, managerial flexibility may be valuable because optimal decisions may change over time with the release of new information. Transmission investors may want to defer or expand according to such information. The aim of this article is to estimate the value of adding some flexibility in TEP through real options. In particular, by means of using a real-option approach with binomial trees, we study the benefits for a social network planner of having the option to defer some transmission investments. Our results suggest that incorporating flexibility in TEP may increase social welfare.

The improved business valuation model for RFID company based on the community mining method.

Nowadays, the appetite for the investment and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in RFID companies is growing rapidly. Although the huge number of papers have addressed the topic of business valuation models based on statistical methods or neural network methods, only a few are dedicated to constructing a general framework for business valuation that improves the performance with network graph (NG) and the corresponding community mining (CM) method. In this study, an NG based business valuation model is proposed, where real options approach (ROA) integrating CM method is designed to predict the company’s net profit as well as estimate the company value. Three improvements are made in the proposed valuation model: Firstly, our model figures out the credibility of the node belonging to each community and clusters the network according to the evolutionary Bayesian method. Secondly, the improved bacterial foraging optimization algorithm (IBFOA) is adopted to calculate the optimized Bayesian posterior probability function. Finally, in IBFOA, bi-objective method is used to assess the accuracy of prediction, and these two objectives are combined into one objective function using a new Pareto boundary method. The proposed method returns lower forecasting error than 10 well-known forecasting models on 3 different time interval valuing tasks for the real-life simulation of RFID companies.

Economic Feasibility of a Compressed Air Energy Storage System Under Market Uncertainty: A Real Options Approach

Since the liberalization of electricity markets power prices are considered as highly volatile. Thus investment in new power plants is exposed to higher risks. Traditional capital budgeting methods lack the integration of flexibility. This can be overcome by applying real options analysis. In the context of an increasing electricity production by highly volatile renewable power plants, new solutions need to be found to ensure security of supply and to accommodate intermittent generation. Energy storage is seen as a possible solution. The Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) technology provides many key features that are relevant to deal with arising problems by renewables. Lately an advanced adiabatic version with higher roundtrip efficiencies has been discussed. However, high capital expenditures limit the economically viable implementation. As conventional CAES uses natural gas for production, it is exposed to price fluctuations on two markets. Depending on the configuration of component sizes, CAES storage units can be used for different purposes. A price model is set up to produce, in combination with the application of a Monte Carlo simulation, possible future price paths for power, natural gas and demand rate for minute reserve. Based on these price paths costs and revenues for different CAES applications are calculated. For the economic evaluation three different configurations are considered for both diabatic and adiabatic CAES. Investment in a diabatic CAES used for load-leveling purposes is found to be the most economical option.

Appraisal of small modular nuclear reactors with ‘real options’ valuation

Small modular nuclear reactors have the advantage of flexibility in deployment and shorter construction time compared with large reactors. Investment appraisals in the energy sector are traditionally based on discounted cash flow, but this tends to underestimate the value of management flexibility during the decision-making process. The ‘real options’ valuation method can better support an investment appraisal. This paper, leveraging the real options approach, gives an account of two key strategic aspects to support the decision-making process in building small modular reactors: the time to market with the relative stage-gate process and the effect of a new plant on the existing portfolio. This paper assesses small modular reactors against other base-load power plants and, once applied to the UK scenario, it shows the superior performance of small modular reactors.

Factors Affecting Delay Discounting—The Real Option Approach

We study factors that can influence Delayed Reward Discounting (DRD) behavior from a novel approach based on economic theory. Real Option (RO) analysis shows that when a decision is irreversible, can be delayed and produces uncertain benefits, then future rewards will be discounted in a way that produces seemingly irrational behavior. In a factorial experimental survey, we asked college students how much they were willing to pay for a digital product when the above factors are involved. Results show that DRD behavior is significantly more manifest when the above factors are present than when absent. We proceeded to calculate the magnitude of this increased DRD behavior that is consistent with predictions from RO theory.

The commodity super price cycle and real options: Implications for the Greeks of mining firms

The Real Options Approach (ROA) to the management and valuation of mining firms should impart a distinctive pattern to the time path of the Greeks displayed by such firms during the recent price super cycle. This paper simulates the delta, gamma, vega and rho of a gold mining firm holding a portfolio of heterogeneous mines over the recent gold price cycle, to find out the telltale signs that the ROA should leave on the trajectories exhibited by such variables during that period. We show that the ROA and the standard NPV approach to mine management and valuation predict markedly different trajectories for the Greeks.

Real Options and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis to Assess Strategic Investment Projects

Abstract In today’s uncertain and highly competitive business environment, the difficulty to make strategic investment decisions is growing. The dominant discounted cash flow analysis requires the assumption of perfect certainty of project cash flows. However, under uncertainty traditional DCF approach falls short of providing adequate strategic decision support, and this situation demands new methods for investment evaluation. Real options approach (ROA) has shown the potential for valuation of strategic corporate investment decisions and managerial flexibility in situations of high uncertainty. Under ROA, projects are viewed as real options that can be valued using financial option pricing techniques. This framework allows their owner to keep investment options open and to benefit from the upside potential of an opportunity while controlling the downside risk. The main aim of this research is to investigate the feasibility of real options approach and traditional DCF analysis for assessment of strategic investment projects under environmental uncertainty.

A three-stage real options model on fire risk management decision-making under the fire loss frequency uncertainty

Abstract This paper aims to adopt the real options approach to the fire risk management decision-making of alternative fire insurance and fire security services in the context of the fire loss frequency uncertainty. This paper constructs a three-stage model to analyze the frequency of fire loss with a dynamic viewpoint and examines the ten years fire loss data of an international city to propose the optimal timing to buy fire insurance or install a fire security system. The research findings can serve as a reference to the fire insurance companies and fire security service providers in the design of new products and service offerings. The results, supported with many cases in real life, can offer insight to decision makers.

Investment opportunity in China's overseas oil project: An empirical analysis based on real option approach

China's overseas oil investments uphold national energy security. Located in the complex international economic and political environment, the benefits of overseas oil projects are affected by various uncertainties. Oil companies call for a set of evaluation method dealing with these uncertainties, especially when encountering low-oil-price conditions. It is much more crucial to answer when to optimally invest rather than whether to invest. This paper analyzes the investment opportunity of an oil project in the development and production phase considering uncertainty, irreversibility and management flexibility. The decision-making process combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method and the trinomial tree model of Real Option Approach (ROA). For practical purposes, tools of hurdle price, cumulative probability and decision tree are adopted. In addition, results of the case project show the economic feasibility at present and optimal start-up timing at the end of 2016. Besides, the lower cost parameters generally make it easier to meet the opportunity. The scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contributes to an earlier start-up. Furthermore, the issues of method applicability, investment signals and decision-lag effects are discussed.

Active management in state-owned energy companies: Integrating a real options approach into multicriteria analysis to make companies sustainable

As a fundamental approach to assess active management and decision-making challenges in large state-owned energy companies (e.g., sustainability, social responsibility, economic growth, and shareholder value), this paper presents a methodological approach, based on a real case study, for integrating real options analysis into multicriteria analysis in order to evaluate and holistically rank a portfolio of multiple firms’ projects. While real options analysis adds value to the projects by hedging uncertainty and valuing flexibility in the decision-making process, multicriteria analysis allows ranking the projects through an Aggregate Quality function that synthesizes economic and social impacts such as gross domestic product and employment. The proposed approach divides the decision-making problem into three main areas that consider aspects related to decision makers’ preferences (behavioral area), data analysis (analytical area), and projects’ rankings (multicriteria analysis methods) based on the use of Preference Ranking Organization Methods for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE). A case example involving a portfolio of projects in state-owned energy companies discusses the benefits of the proposed methodology.

The Value of Switching Production Options in a Flexible Biorefinery

This study analyses the value of a switching option in a flexible biorefinery plant that produces ethanol and sugar juice in a single plant using energy beets. A real-options approach is used to compute threshold prices and optimal switching decision rules for switching between sugar and ethanol production modes. The analysis shows that it is economically optimal to keep producing ethanol then switching to sugar juice, given the stochastic price parameters of the two products.

Agency Contracts, Noncommitment Timing Strategies and Real Options

Given that an owner lacks the ability to commit to his or her timing decisions under a manager’s hidden action, we consider the optimal design of the contract and the owner’s optimal timing decisions. Using a real options approach, we show that, compared with the full commitment case, a higher (lower)-quality project is launched later than (at the same time as) the first-best case, whereas the replacement of the manager is (is not necessarily) made later if the hidden-action problem is severe enough (is not severe enough). Severance pay may serve to minimize the compensation for the manager’s loss of corporate control.

Diversification, relatedness and growth options value: Beyond a linear relationship

This paper investigates how corporate diversification affects a firm's growth options value. We adopt a real options approach from which diversification is seen as both a way to exploit current growth options (option exercise effect) and as a source of future options to expand (option creation effect). We focus on two dimensions of this strategy: degree of diversification and relatedness between segments. Using a panel sample of U.S. firms from 1998 to 2014, and accounting for the endogenous nature of the diversification decision, we find a U-form relationship between diversification degree and growth options value, suggesting that this strategy may primarily become a source of growth options after a certain point. Relatedness has an inverse U-relation with growth options value, suggesting that positive effects from synergies are limited to a certain level after which negative effects from duplicities prevail. Results also reveal that such an inverse U-linkage of relatedness is less pronounced in high diversifiers than in low ones. This study extends the applicability of the real options approach to strategy, and suggests the relevance of a multidimensional and contingent view in the diversification debate.

Does it really matter how a firm diversifies? Assets-in-place diversification versus growth options diversification

This study analyses whether the effect of corporate diversification on a firm's market value depends on how this strategy is implemented. According to the real options approach, two opposite diversification strategies may be implemented: one based on fully exercising available options (assets-in-place diversification) and the other aimed at seeding new opportunities for future growth in multiple businesses (growth options diversification). We propose an index to measure these two diversification patterns and we explore their impact on firm market value for a sample of U.S. firms during 1998–2014. We find that as a firm's diversification strategy shifts towards a growth options pattern, it becomes a more value-enhancing strategy.

Fuzzy sets and real options approaches for innovation-based investment projects effectiveness evaluation

The paper focuses on the specifics of innovation-based investment projects effectiveness evaluation (IIPEE). When using traditional approaches, errors occur in evaluation, since innovation-based investment projects are long-term with high uncertainty. Fuzzy sets and real options approaches have long been used as alternative for IIPEE. The novelty of this paper is in the joint use of these two approaches with the consideration of the wide variety of project implementation scenarios. Consequently, it reasonably seems more efficient use of fuzzy sets approach together with Weighted Average Polynomial Option Pricing Model for IIPEE.

Coal, Renewable, or Nuclear? A Real Options Approach to Energy Investments in the Philippines

The Philippines is making a significant step to become energy independent by developing more sustainable sources of energy. The country sees investments in renewable energy and nuclear energy as promising alternatives to address the country’s problem in energy security. This paper evaluates the comparative attractiveness of either investing in alternative energy sources or continuing the use of coal for electricity generation in the Philippines. Applying the real options approach under coal price uncertainty, this study analyzes investment values and optimal timing of switching technologies from coal to renewable or nuclear energy. It also examines how negative externality and the risk of nuclear accident affect investment decisions. Results identify possible welfare losses from waiting or delaying investing in alternative energy. Negative externality favors investment in nuclear energy over coal, whereas the risk of nuclear accident favors investment in renewable energy.