Real M2 Research Articles

Neural Manifold Constraint for Spike Prediction Models Under Behavioral Reinforcement.

Spike prediction models effectively predict downstream spike trains from upstream neural activity for neural prostheses. Such prostheses could potentially restore damaged neural communication pathways using predicted patterns to guide electrical stimulations on downstream. Since the ground truth of downstream neural activity is unavailable for subjects with the damage, reinforcement learning (RL) with behavior-level rewards becomes necessary for model training. However, existing models do not involve any constraint on the generated firing patterns and neglect the correlations among neural activities. Thus, the model outputs can greatly deviate from the natural range of neural activities, causing concerns for clinical usage. This study proposes the neural manifold constraint to solve this problem, shaping RL-generated spike trains in the feature space. The constraint terms describe the first and second order statistics of the neural manifold estimated from neural recordings during subjects' freely moving period. Then, the models can be optimized within the neural manifold by behavioral reinforcement. We test the method to predict primary motor cortex (M1) spikes from medial prefrontal (mPFC) spikes when rats perform the two-lever discrimination task. Results show that the neural activity generated by constrained models resembles the real M1 recordings. Compared with models without constraints, our approach achieves similar behavioral success rates, but reduces the mean squared error of neural firing by 61%. The constraints also increase the model's robustness across data segments and induce realistic neural correlations. Our method provides a promising tool to restore transregional communication with high behavioral performance and more realistic microscopic patterns.

Relationship Between Real GDP, CPI and M2 During the Lost Decades and Abenomics Era

The lost decades and its solutions, especially Abenomics are famous topics when discussing about Japans economy. This paper mainly focused on the relationship between CPI, M2 and real GDP of Japan in both short and long run using VAR model and cointegration analysis, and find out that: (1) Changes in money issuance and gross output in the short run have a positive effect on the increase in the price index; (2) The increase in monetary issuance and price level does not directly bring about an increase in output, but rather affects the demand and reduces the GDP growth rate; (3) The real GDP performance in the long run shows changes in the same direction as CPI, M2 and the time trend. CPI has a positive effect on disequilibrium, while changes in M2 have the effect of eliminating the disequilibrium.

Real money and economic growth in Russia and the United States in the 21st century

The aim of this paper is to test empirically the point of view that economic growth is a function of only one variable — money supply. According to Russian economist S.N. Blinov, to achieve 5 % annual growth rate of GDP within three months it is sufficient to increase real money supply by 26 % annually. For empirical verifi cation Granger causality test and other instruments of econometrics of time series were used on data ranging from the 1st quarter of 2000 to the 4th of 2022 (92 quarterly observations). The null hypothesis that causality runs from real M2 to real GDP, but not in the opposite direction was rejected in favor of by-directional causality. Lagged GDP systematically contributes much more to economic grows than real M2 and contributes much more in Russia than in the United States. In addition, the author comes to the conclusion that in the USA the influence of real money on the economy is much stronger and faster than in Russia, and the role of the central bank is much more signifi cant. Since 1977, when the US Congress gave the Fed a «double mandate», i.e. assigned it responsibility for economic growth, the Fed’s monetary policy is designed to ensure maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates in the US economy. Employment and inflation targets as a rule, they are complimentary. Working in a completely different economy, the Bank of Russia successfully disavows this responsibility.

Revisit of Tunisia’s Money Demand Function: What About Oil Price and Exchange Rate Effects?

This paper examines the long run and short run dynamic relationship between real broad money and macroeconomic factors in Tunisia for the period 2010M01 to 2019M07. We employ linear and NARDL bound testing approach for co-integration between the money demand measure and its determinants. Three real broader money demand variables (M2, M3, and M4) are considered to show that exchange rate have asymmetric significant effects once we introduce nonlinearity in the long run as well as in the short run association. Then, by using the (Shin et al., 2014) NARDL approach, we show that currency appreciation and depreciation could affect the demand for money in an asymmetric manner. However, in the long run, it is only the oil price and Tunisian Dinar (TD) depreciation and appreciation which have significant effect out of the five considered macroeconomic factors (real income, interest rates, inflation, oil price, and the exchange rate). Besides, the QSUMSQ stability tests results reveal that only real M3 money demand function which is clearly stable. In implementing monetary policy, the Tunisian central bank (TCB) should target the M3 monetary aggregate and take into account of the exchange rate changes stabilization.

Asymmetric Effect of Monetary Policy on Housing Price from Short-Term and Long-Term Perspectives

This study uses two main monetary policy tools, the real interest rate and M2, to investigate and analyze the correlation between monetary policy tools and housing prices. The sample period runs from 2006 to 2021 and the data frequency is monthly. The analysis explores the effects of the real interest rate and M2 on real estate prices through the integration of short- and long-term perspectives. The findings show that the real interest rate has no asymmetric effect on housing prices in the short term, but has a significant asymmetric effect in the long term. Monetary supply is asymmetric in both the short and long terms. In the short term, monetary supply tools are invalid for adjusting housing prices, while increasing the real interest rate could inhibit the rise in housing prices; in the long term, decreasing the real interest rate and monetary supply could inhibit the rise in housing prices.

Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy and Capital Structure

Instruments of monetary and fiscal policy are beyond the control of the management but they do influence the short-term as well as long-term decision making of the firm. Empirical studies with respect to their effect on financing decisions of the firm are somewhat under researched particularly in the context of developing countries. The aim of the study was to analyse the effect of these instruments on the financing decisions of the non-financial firms listed on PSX for the period 2008-2015. Fixed effect model was used to analyse the effect of instruments of monetary policy and fiscal policy on the financing decisions of firms. Based on sample of 338 firms, the findings of the study revealed that instruments of monetary policy and fiscal policy do influence the financing decisions of the firm. M2, tax revenue and government debt has a significant effect on the debt ratio of listed firms whereas real interest rate is insignificantly related. Moreover, the relationship between real interest rate, M2 and tax revenue and debt ratio is negative whereas in case of government debt it is positive.

Searching for Black Hole Candidates by LAMOST and ASAS-SN

Abstract Most dynamically confirmed stellar-mass black holes (BHs) and their candidates were originally selected from X-ray outbursts. In the present work, we search for BH candidates in the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) survey using the spectra along with photometry from the All Sky Automated Survey for SuperNovae (ASAS-SN), where the orbital period of the binary may be revealed by the periodic light curve, such as the ellipsoidal modulation type. Our sample consists of nine binaries, where each source contains a giant star with large radial velocity variation ( ) and periods known from light curves. We focus on the nine sources with long periods (T ph > 5 days) and evaluate the mass M 2 of the optically invisible companion. Since the observed ΔV R from only a few repeating spectroscopic observations is a lower limit of the real amplitude, the real mass M 2 can be significantly higher than the current evaluation. It is likely an efficient method to place constraints on M 2 by combining ΔV R from LAMOST and T ph from ASAS-SN, particularly by the ongoing LAMOST Medium Resolution Survey.

The Relationship of Economic Fundamentals and Real Exchange Rate between Korea and China

This paper examines the real exchange rate’s(REER) response to the real GDP, FDI, M2, trade openness(OPEM), foreign reserves (FER)and government...

Forecasting U.S. money growth using economic uncertainty measures and regularisation techniques

This paper examines the out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty variables for the growth of the real M2 and real M4 Divisia money series for the U.S. using monthly data. The core contention is that information on economic uncertainty improves the forecasting accuracy. We estimate vector autoregressive models using the iterated rolling-window forecasting scheme, in combination with modern regularisation techniques from the field of machine learning. Applying the Hansen-Lunde-Nason model confidence set approach under two different loss functions reveals strong evidence that uncertainty variables that are related to financial markets, the state of the macroeconomy or economic policy provide additional informational content when forecasting monetary dynamics. The use of regularisation techniques improves the forecast accuracy substantially.

Estimating and Accounting for the Output Gap with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions

We demonstrate how Bayesian shrinkage can address problems with utilizing large information sets to calculate trend and cycle via a multivariate Beveridge-Nelson (BN) decomposition. We illustrate our approach by estimating the U.S. output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions that include up to 138 variables. Because the BN trend and cycle are linear functions of historical forecast errors, we are also able to account for the estimated output gap in terms of different sources of information, as well as particular underlying structural shocks given identification restrictions. Our empirical analysis suggests that, in addition to output growth, the unemployment rate, CPI inflation, and, to a lesser extent, housing starts, consumption, stock prices, real M1, and the federal funds rate are important conditioning variables for estimating the U.S. output gap, with estimates largely robust to incorporating additional variables. Using standard identification restrictions, we find that the role of monetary policy shocks in driving the output gap is small, while oil price shocks explain about 10% of the variance over different horizons.

The Stability of Long-Run Money Demand in Western Balkan Countries: An Empirical Panel Investigation

Abstract The goal of this paper is to examine the stability of money demand (M1) in five Western Balkan countries using quarterly data from 2005Q1 to 2014Q4. The dynamic ordinary least squares – DOLS method was used to find the long-run relationships in a money demand model. The empirical results identify the long-run money demand relationship among real M1 nominal interest rate, exchange rate, inflation and a dummy variable for the effect of the European debt crisis. The estimated long-run coefficients are, respectively −0.086, 0.519, 0.002 and 0.030. Our findings imply that real money demand in Western Balkan countries was stable in the analyzed period.

Multifocal repetitive TMS for motor and mood symptoms of Parkinson disease: A randomized trial.

To assess whether multifocal, high-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) of motor and prefrontal cortex benefits motor and mood symptoms in patients with Parkinson disease (PD). Patients with PD and depression were enrolled in this multicenter, double-blind, sham-controlled, parallel-group study of real or realistic (electric) sham rTMS. Patients were randomized to 1 of 4 groups: bilateral M1 ( + sham dorsolateral prefrontal cortex [DLPFC]), DLPFC ( + sham M1), M1 + DLPFC, or double sham. The TMS course consisted of 10 daily sessions of 2,000 stimuli for the left DLPFC and 1,000 stimuli for each M1 (50 × 4-second trains of 40 stimuli at 10 Hz). Patients were evaluated at baseline, at 1 week, and at 1, 3, and 6 months after treatment. Primary endpoints were changes in motor function assessed with the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale-III and in mood with the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale at 1 month. Of the 160 patients planned for recruitment, 85 were screened, 61 were randomized, and 50 completed all study visits. Real M1 rTMS resulted in greater improvement in motor function than sham at the primary endpoint (p < 0.05). There was no improvement in mood in the DLPFC group compared to the double-sham group, as well as no benefit to combining M1 and DLPFC stimulation for either motor or mood symptoms. In patients with PD with depression, M1 rTMS is an effective treatment of motor symptoms, while mood benefit after 2 weeks of DLPFC rTMS is not better than sham. Targeting both M1 and DLPFC in each rTMS session showed no evidence of synergistic effects. NCT01080794. This study provides Class I evidence that in patients with PD with depression, M1 rTMS leads to improvement in motor function while DLPFC rTMS does not lead to improvement in depression compared to sham rTMS.

Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam

Based on the study of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), this paper studies and applies early warning systems of currency crises to the case of Vietnam from 1996 to 2014. Its results show that the currency crisis is signaled six times during the observed period. Several principal indicators of the currency crisis in Vietnam include increased import, decreased export, excess real M1 balances, low international reserves and deposit growth, high interest rate and credit growth, high domestic-foreign rate differential, and decreased real output. Hence, the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam should grant appropriate policies not only to control the money supply and interest rate, but also to stimulate the ability of capital mobilization of Vietnam’s banking system and to facilitate export activities in the coming years.

Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam

Based on the study of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), this paper studies and applies early warning systems of currency crises to the case of Vietnam from 1996 to 2014. Its results show that the currency crisis is signaled six times during the observed period. Several principal indicators of the currency crisis in Vietnam include increased import, decreased export, excess real M1 balances, low international reserves and deposit growth, high interest rate and credit growth, high domestic-foreign rate differential, and decreased real output. Hence, the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam should grant appropriate policies not only to control the money supply and interest rate, but also to stimulate the ability of capital mobilization of Vietnam’s banking system and to facilitate export activities in the coming years

Commodity prices, the exchange rate and manufacturing in South Africa: what do the data say?

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the empirical relationships between changes in OECD output, commodity prices, the real exchange rate, real money supply, unit labour costs and manufacturing in South Africa. In particular, to test a version of the Dutch disease argument that increases in the prices of South Africa’s main commodity exports have had a negative effect on domestic manufacturing against the alternative hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between such changes in commodity prices and domestic manufacturing output. Design/methodology/approach – Construction of a model including real manufacturing output in South Africa as the dependent variable and the following independent variables: OECD output, an international real metals price index, a real effective exchange rate index, real M3 money supply and manufacturing unit labour costs. The time series sample data comprise 124 quarterly observations for the period 1980-2010. The model equation was tested and estimated using a Johansen cointegration approach. Findings – The main findings are: OECD output is the single most important determinant of domestic manufacturing output; while the real exchange rate has the predicted negative sign, rising commodity prices are associated with increases rather than decreases in domestic manufacturing and; large increases in unit labour costs since the early 1980s have dragged down manufacturing over the sample period. Originality/value – The finding of a positive relationship between commodity prices and domestic manufacturing means that the Dutch disease argument must be revised when applied to South Africa. While rising commodity prices may lead to a negative exchange rate effect on manufacturing competitiveness, this is more than offset by the positive growth effects associated with upswings in the commodity price cycle.

Monetary Aggregates to Improve Early Output Gap Estimates in the Euro Area: An Empirical Assessment

Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real‐time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output gap estimates for euro area data. For many periods the cyclical component of real M1 shows good results, while a forecasting strategy based on projecting GDP series seems to be more robust and provides superior results during the Great Recession. Broader monetary aggregates provide no superior information for output gap estimates. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

PERANAN VARIABEL EKONOMI MAKRO TERHADAP INFLASI PASCAPENERAPAN INFLATION TARGETING FRAMEWORK (ITF) 1 DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1999.1-2008.6

The objective of this research is to analyze the effect of macroeconomics variable, which is real exchange rate, SBI, M1 and GDP to domestic inflation in Inflation Targeting Framework. This research also intended to analyze effect of macroeconomics to inflation, which been transmitted through interest rate and will give us a big picture on what’s the next monetary policies. We used monthly time series data 1999:01–2008:06 and applied Vector Error Correction Model to analyze the phenomenon. Real exchange rate, SBI (quarterly), M1 and GDP have positive effect to the inflation, but only real exchange rate and SBI (quarterly) which has permanent and long term effect. The real exchange rate has strong effect on inflation stability because, by applying ITF. The free-floating exchange rate system should be applied, and the fragile currency shall be easily fluctuated.

Dynamic effective mass and power dissipation of the granular material under vertical vibration

The dependences of the dynamic effective mass() and power dissipation p() of tungsten particles system on frequency are studied under vertical vibration excitation. It is found that there appears a sharp resonance peak in each of spectra of the real part M1 (), the imaginary part M2 () of the effective mass, and the power dissipation for a given vibrating strength. With the increase of the pressure acting on the top surface of the particle, each peak frequency of the M1 (), M2 () and power dissipation moves to higher frequency, and the peak height also increases accordingly. Further study finds that the resonance frequency fg of the real part of the effective mass satisfies piecewise power-law with the change of pressure P acting on the top surface. At low P value, the power exponent is 0.3, and at high P value the power exponent decreases to 1/6. The reciprocal of quality factor of the granular system, 1/Q, decreases exponentially with the change of pressure P.

On the causal link between money and output growth: Evidence from Turkey

In this paper we empirically investigate the causal link between money and economic growth employing a Markov switching Granger causality analysis. We carry out our investigation using quarterly Turkey real Gross Domestic Product, real M2 and interbank money market rate data which cover the period between 1987:Q4 and 2012:Q1. We find that there are significant changes in the causal relation between money and economic growth over the sample period under investigation. Our results show that M2 growth and interest rate have significant predictive content for real economic activity in the Turkish economy. Furthermore, the causality running from interest rate to output growth seems to be strongly apparent particularly during the periods of economic downturn. We also document that M2 has predictive power in explaining output growth particularly during the mid-1980s and during 1990s.

Multifamily residential asset and space markets and linkages with the economy

We show that a proper assessment of the linkages between real estate markets and the economy requires state of the art modelling techniques, which treat economic variables endogenously and allow for a number of long-run relationships. We therefore use a long-run structural modelling approach, which incorporates equilibrium relationships that are predicted by economic theory, in an otherwise unrestricted vector autoregressive model. The application of this approach to Swiss multifamily residential data shows that four long-run equilibrium relations exist among inflation, long- and short-term interest rates, real M2, real GDP, real construction expenditures, real market rents and capitalisation rates. Disturbances to the equilibria last for approximately five years before they completely vanish. The analysis of the short-run dynamics additionally suggests that the linkages between real estate and economic variables are bi-directional. Our findings should provide for a better understanding of the linkages and feedback mechanisms between a developed economy and its real estate markets and thereby help in the identification and quantification of both market interventions by policy-makers and risks borne by investors.