Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis Research Articles

Re-examining the real interest rate parity hypothesis under temporary gradual breaks and nonlinear convergence

Re-examining the real interest rate parity hypothesis under temporary gradual breaks and nonlinear convergence

A semi-parametric study on dynamic linkages among international real interest rates

Linkages between real interest rates among countries have been extensively investigated in the literature as it has important policy implications for the monetary authorities in the policy making process. Even in a perfectly efficient international interest rate market, equal real interest rates are not expected because of the existence of transaction costs and hence nonlinear approaches that take transactions costs into account are necessary to evaluate the relationship between real interest rates. A semi-parametric, generalized additive vector autoregressive models were applied to a consideration of real interest rate linkages among the US, the UK, Japan, Switzerland and the Eurozone. Through nonlinearity tests, we find strong evidence that nonlinearities substantially characterize real interest rate linkages. Generalized impulse response functions are utilized to investigate the dynamics of real interest rates after shocks of different sizes, directions, and histories. All marginal effects from four models backed by different economic theories and generalized impulse responses from vector error correction models support the real interest rate parity hypothesis which indicates a high degree of integration in capital markets. The results provide evidence that the conventional tests which rely on linearity assumptions may lead to misleading inferences and local monetary policy makers can only affect the real interest rates when the international financial markets are close to the equilibrium; the efforts of the policy makers may be offset by the arbitrage behavior when this condition is not satisfied.

Financial market integration of emerging markets: Heavy tails, structural shifts, nonlinearity, and asymmetric persistence

This study examines the financial market integration of emerging markets into international financial markets with regards to the real interest rate parity hypothesis. We focus on accounting for heavy-tailed (non-normal) distributions, structural shifts, nonlinearity, and asymmetric adjustment by utilizing recent methodological developments in unit root analysis. With data from January 2000 to May 2020 for 21 emerging markets, we find that considering heavy-tailed distributions in an asymmetric persistence framework with nonlinearity and structural shifts appears to be crucial in analyzing the financial market integrations of emerging markets. The nonlinear quantile unit root test with smooth structural breaks supports the real interest rate parity hypothesis in 18 out of 21 countries. An interesting result is that the conventional and quantile approaches are unable to support the validity of real interest parity in China. Our findings provide sound implications, which are discussed.

The Comparison of Power and Optimization Algorithms on Unit Root Testing with Smooth Transition

The aim of this study is to search for a better optimization algorithm in applying unit root tests that inherit nonlinear models in the testing process. The algorithms analyzed include Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfarb and Shanno (BFGS), Gauss---Jordan, Simplex, Genetic, sequential quadratic programming and extensive grid-search. The simulation results indicate that the derivative free methods, such as Genetic and Simplex, have advantages over hill climbing methods, such as BFGS and Gauss---Jordan, in obtaining accurate critical values for the Leybourne et al. (J Time Ser Anal 19:83---97, 1998) (LNV) and Sollis (J Time Ser Anal 25:409---417, 2004) unit root tests. Besides, we extend our analysis by including exponential smooth transition type of trend function in to unit root testing which is not used in the previous literature. The same result also holds true for our newly proposed unit root test with exponential smooth transition function type of trend model. Furthermore, we realize that there is a gap in the unit root studies that the newly proposed tests are not analyzed between each other's data generating process (DGP). Hence, we investigate the power comparison of different nonlinear unit root test under various DGP including nonlinear unit root tests and find interesting results such as LNV type unit root test can manage to capture state dependent nonlinearity when the transition speed is high. Finally, we have used the Australian real interest rate parity hypothesis to empirically verify the results that we have obtained in the simulation studies.

Re-examining the real interest rate parity hypothesis (RIPH) using panel unit root tests with asymmetry and cross-section dependence

This paper investigates the validity of the real interest rate parity hypothesis (RIPH) using a panel unit root approach. For this purpose, first we estimate the possible nonlinear data-generating processes of the real interest rate differential series and using these estimates determine which panel unit root test is better for analyzing the RIPH. To this end, smooth transition autoregressive and threshold autoregressive (TAR) models are estimated for two different panels of countries: G7 and post-Soviet transition economies. The results show that the data displays both strong asymmetry and high transition speed. Therefore, secondly, we propose a new panel unit root test where the alternative is stationary with asymmetric TAR adjustment, and provide their empirical power properties. Finally, we demonstrate that our newly proposed test is able to provide conclusive evidence in favor of the RIPH in contrast to the other panel unit root tests considered.

A RE‐EXAMINATION OF REAL INTEREST PARITY IN CEECs USING ‘OLD’ AND ‘NEW’ SECOND‐GENERATION PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS

ABSTRACTThis study applies ‘old’ and ‘new’ second‐generation panel unit root tests to check the validity of the long‐run real interest rate parity (RIP) hypothesis for ten Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) with respect to the Euro area and an average of the CEECs’ real interest rates. When the ‘new’ panel unit root tests are carried out relative to the Euro area rate as reference, we confirm the results of previous studies that support the RIP hypothesis, and the results of the ‘old’ tests used as a benchmark. Nevertheless, when the ‘new’ tests are performed using the average of the CEECs’ rate as reference, our results are mitigated, revealing that the hypothesis of CEECs’ interest rates convergence cannot be taken for granted. From a robustness analysis perspective, our findings indicate that the RIP hypothesis for CEECs should be considered with caution, because the RIP hypothesis is sensitive to the retained reference rate for computing the real interest rate differential, and also to the retained countries in the sample.

Real interest rate parity hypothesis in post-Soviet countries: Evidence from unit root tests

In this paper we investigate the real interest parity hypothesis for ten post-Soviet transition countries with respect to Russia, the USA and Germany. For this purpose, we employ conventional linear unit root tests as well as a nonlinear unit root test developed by Kapetanios et al. (2003) to examine stationarity properties of real interest rate differentials of the transition countries vis-à-vis Russia, the USA, and Germany. The results provide evidence in favor of real interest rate parity for most of the series, especially when possible nonlinearities in the adjustment process are taken into account.

FURTHER EVIDENCE ON REAL INTEREST RATE EQUALIZATION: PANEL INFORMATION, NON‐LINEARITIES AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES

ABSTRACTPrevious studies applying traditional unit root tests generally have difficulty providing widespread evidence supporting the real interest rate parity hypothesis (RIPH). This paper aims to analyse the empirical fulfilment of RIPH for 17 OECD countries by employing many recently developed unit root tests. Power of the tests is raised by taking different approaches, such as using cross‐sectional information, accounting for non‐linear adjustment towards the equilibrium and allowing for structural changes. The combined results of the tests using panel information show that broad evidence in favour of RIPH prevails for 13 of the 17 countries. By contrast, univariate tests fail to make widespread rejections of the unit‐root hypothesis. Our evidence reveals a high degree of market integration for developed countries, and the effect of monetary policies as a stabilization tool might be limited at least in the long run.

A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks

The real interest rate parity hypothesis is tested using data for the group of seven industrialized countries (G7) over the period 1970–2008. The contribution is two-fold. First, the paper utilizes the bounds approach in order to overcome uncertainty about the order of integration of real interest rates. Second, a test is made for structural breaks in the underlying relationship using a multiple structural breaks test. The results indicate significant parameter instability and suggest that, despite the advances in economic and financial integration, real interest rate parity has not fully recovered from a breakdown in the 1980s.

A revisit on real interest rate parity hypothesis – simulation evidence from efficient unit root tests

A set of unit root tests are applied to test the existence of long-run real interest rate parity among the G-10 countries over the period 1971M1 to 2007M2. Rather than trusting the asymptotic distributions, this article uses simulation techniques to establish the small sample distributions of these tests, conditional on the stationary and nonstationary processes. The empirical results indicate that the tests have stable finite-sample sizes and higher size-adjusted powers such that the two estimated processes can be distinguished from each other. Thus, for six of the nine countries, their series are more likely to come from the estimated Autoregressive (AR) stationary process than from the nonstationary process. Noticeably, the testing results are rather different from those using the asymptotic distributions, in which only three countries support the real interest rate parity.

On the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Constraints to the Real Side of the Economy

Contrary to the predictions of the theory underlying international finance, inflows of capital triggered by financial liberalisation have neither equalised real interest rates nor increased income growth in many emerging economies. We explain this puzzle by developing a model that combines the balance‐of‐payments constraint approach to economic growth with a less stringent version of the real interest rate parity hypothesis. The model’s foundations are based on robust empirical findings or well‐established macroeconomic models. We show that a perverse combination of income elasticities of demand for imports and exports generates slow income growth and high real interest rates. As domestic income grows and imports rise faster than exports, the real exchange rate is expected to depreciate in order to clear the balance of payments (or the foreign exchange rate market). An incipient capital outflow arises and interest rates increase. Faster adjustment in capital rather than in the goods market therefore generates a higher real interest rate differential between the domestic small open‐economy and the rest of the world. The long run analysis shows that a constant degree of risk aversion implies a positive equilibrium real interest rate differential that affects economic growth. A permanent increase in default risk driven by persistent current account imbalances thus impacts on long run growth. The model’s results are illustrated with evidence from the three major Latin America economies: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico.

International expected real interest rates: New tests of the parity hypothesis and U.S. fiscal policy effects

This paper investigates the links among expected real interest rates across countries and also those between international expected real interest rates and U.S. fiscal policy. We analyze the cross-sectional mean of international ex-post real interest rates as an estimator for the mean international expected real interest rate. Our results strongly reject the international expected real interest rate parity hypothesis; reveal that U.S. budget deficits have no independent effects on international real rates given the impact of U.S. government defense spending; and suggest that forces other than U.S. fiscal policy account for the post-1980 rise in international real rates.