Real Industrial Output Research Articles

Application Status and Development Prospect of Liquid Air Energy Storage

The growth of the energy storage sector has garnered increasing attention from nations in recent years. In recent years, the energy storage sector has grown at a rate that has outpaced the expansion of the power sector in terms of real industrial output and application. Due to the obvious growth of renewable energy, there is a sizable market potential for the development of the energy storage industry, which is mostly represented by wind and light. Yet, there is still demand to integrate renewable energy into the grid on a wide scale and run safely and steadily because new energy sources are sometimes available and sometimes not, so they cannot provide a steady, reliable source of power directly by themselves. The aforementioned issues can be successfully resolved through the utilization of technological advancements in energy storage on a grand scale. There are many different ways to store energy, but some of the most common large-scale methods are using batteries, hydroelectric dams, and compressed air. As a novel form of cryogenic technology, liquid air energy storage (LAES) represents a significant step forward in energy storage. It can realize grid-connected new energy consumption, reasonably absorbs low-valley electricity and waste heat resources, and can steadily output various energy sources, including cold, heat, electricity, and industrial gas. This article will discuss the basic principles of LAES and its integrated systems and hope to facilitate future efficient energy storage and renewable energy usage by using LAES technology.

Curbing Unemployment Through Job Creation as Panacea to Inclusive Growth in Nigeria

The thrust of this study is to curb unemployment rate through job creation using some key sectors of the economy specifically the manufacturing, agricultural and industrial sectors as the basis for attaining an inclusive growth in Nigeria particularly with the increasing rate of youth unemployment booming the Country. This is demonstrated by the agricultural, manufacturing and industrial policies, programmes and strategies initiated, designed and executed to retard the alarming unemployment rate. The short-run and long-run dynamics streaming from inclusive growth proxied by real gross domestic product per capita, agricultural sector proxied by real agricultural output, manufacturing sector proxied by real manufacturing output, industrial sector proxied by real industrial output and openness measured by export as percentage of real gross domestic product to unemployment rate were evaluated using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test approach for the period 1970 to 2014. The Estimated results from the study reveals that, improvement in the agricultural, manufacturing and industrial sectors will significantly aid in reducing the problems of unemployment and poverty in Nigeria. Even though the manufacturing sector shows no contribution to reducing unemployment, this could be as a result of the use of some equipment which has taken the place of labour thereby making it redundant. Though, if the teeming unemployed populace is adequately trained in the right direction, the manufacturing sector can still absorbed them. To this effect, the study recommended Government to give utmost priority to the key indicators that are needful at a given period of time in order to ascertain the right combination of the sectors in which these scarce resources should be directed to with the intention of enhancing inclusive growth.

English

English

Energy Cost, Energy Risk and Japanese Technical Changes

This study assumes the existence of a short-run energy cost-driven technical application mechanism and a long-run energy risk-driven technical progress mechanism. Using the Japanese monthly data from 1988 to 2010, we perform Granger causality tests on the four time series, namely energy price, import volume of crude oil, geographical dispersion of oil imports, as well as real industrial output. The results show that for a country with tight energy constraint, energy price shocks may trigger the both mechanisms of technical application and technical progress, which facilitate the short-run and the long-run economic growth separately. Moreover, we find that the geographical dispersion of oil imports is mainly employed as a tool to control the risk of import volume, instead of energy price uncertainties.

Are Business and Credit Cycles Converging or Diverging? A Comparison of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and the Euro Area

This paper provides an analysis of co-movements between real and financial variables in three new EU member countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) and the euro area. It focuses on the co-movement between real credit granted to firms and real industrial output on the one hand, and between the aforementioned variables and a monetary policy indicator (the three-month real interest rate) on the other. Given that there is no single definition for the business cycle, we take three different approaches: we identify the turning points in the series and then estimate a concordance index; we decompose and compare the cyclical components of the series; and we calculate dynamic correlations across the variables. We find a better convergence of real than financial cycles between the new EU members and the euro area. There is no a high degree of dependence between loans and industrial output in all countries; yet, monetary policy appears to smooth the distribution of credit throughout the cycles.

Real and nominal effects of monetary policy shocks

Abstract. We employ the identification scheme of Kahn, Kandel and Sarig (2002) to analyse the impact of Canadian monetary policy on ex ante real interest rates and inflationary expectations. First, we decompose nominal interest rates into ex ante real rates and inflationary expectations using the methodology of Blanchard and Quah (1989). Then we estimate a recursive VAR model with innovations in a monetary aggregate and the overnight target interest rate as alternative measures of monetary policy shocks. We find that a negative policy shock raises both nominal and ex ante real interest rates, lowers inflationary expectations and real industrial output, and appreciates the Canadian dollar.

Cycles réel et du crédit : convergence ou divergence ?

Résumé Cet article propose l’analyse de co-mouvements entre variables réelles et financières dans trois nouveaux pays membres de l’Union européenne (Hongrie, Pologne et République tchèque) ainsi que dans la zone euro. Il s’agit de l’examen du co-mouvement d’une part entre le crédit aux entreprises et la production industrielle réels, d’autre part entre les variables précédentes et un indicateur de politique monétaire, le taux d’intérêt réel à 3 mois. Partant du principe qu’il n’existe pas de définition unique du cycle économique, nous adoptons trois approches différentes : identification de points de retournement des séries et évaluation d’un indice de concordance ; décomposition et comparaison des différentes composantes cycliques des séries ; enfin, calcul des corrélations dynamiques entre les variables. Nous trouvons une meilleure convergence des cycles réels que des cycles financiers entre les nouveaux pays membres de l’ ue et la zone euro. Il n’existe pas une forte dépendance entre crédits et la production industrielle dans tous les pays ; cependant, il apparaît que la politique monétaire lisse la distribution du crédit au cours des cycles.

On the export-led growth hypothesis for the little dragons: An empirical reinvestigation

The export-led growth hypothesis is tested using quarterly time series data for Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan and by constructing a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The Granger no-causality procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto [1995] was applied to test the causal link between real export growth and real industrial output growth. Three distinct features in this paper stand out against earlier studies on the Little Dragon countries of Asia. First, going beyond the traditional two-variable relationship, a VAR model is built in the production function context to avoid a possible specification bias. Second, Riezman et al. [1996] are followed to test the export-led growth hypothesis while controlling for the growth of imports to avoid producing a spurious causality result. Third, the sensitivity of causality test results under different lag structures is tested along with the choice of optimal lags. In particular, the methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto is expected to improve the standard F-statistics in the causality test process. The principal result from this research cannot offer support for the export-led growth hypothesis.

On the export-led growth hypothesis: the econometric evidence from China

The export-led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented growth equation on the basis of times series data from China. The Granger no-causality procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto (Journal of Econometrics, 66, 1995) was applied to test the causality link between exports and economic growth in a VAR system. Three distinct features in this paper stand out compared to earlier studies on China: first, we have gone beyond the traditional two-variable relationship by building a VAR model in the production function context to avoid a possible specification bias; second, we follow Riezman, Whiteman and Summers (Empirical Economics, 21, 1996) to test the export-led growth hypothesis while controlling for the growth of imports to avoid producing a spurious causality result; third, we test the sensitivity of causality test results under different lag structures along with the choice of optimal lags; in particular, the methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is expected to improve the standard F -statistics in the causality test process. The results indicate a bidirectional causality between exports and real industrial output in China in the 1987-1996 period. The export-led growth hypothesis, defined as a unidirectional causal ordering from exports to output, is therefore rejected in the case of China despite the positive contribution of exports on China's real output.

On the role of money in real business-cycle models

Within the equilibrium explanation of busines cycles, there are two major classes of models. Real business-cycle models emphasize real factors, such as technological changes, in determining economic fluctuation, while monetary business-cycle models advocate the role of money in generating business cycles. Recent theoretical efforts have atempted to provide a reconcilation by allowing technology to be endogenous. In an empirical model that accounts for endogenous technology, technological changes are statistically significant in determining fluctuations in real activity. In contrast, monetary surprises do not induce significant effects that determine the growth of real industrial output. Nonetheless, anticipated technological advances are endogenous with respect to anticipated changes in the money supply. This endogeneity provide the sole channel through which the effects of monetary policy can be transmitted to real activity. That is, anticipated policy changes have long-lasting effects that determine the...